RACE 1
The first race is a first level allowance going a mile and an eighth over the turf. The favorite is likely to be the European import Saint Loup. He was Group 3 placed after just losing the bob. This is most likely a prep for the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby next month at Hollywood Park. His trainer has had success in the past with shippers from Europe, including Breeders' Cup Mile winner Val Royal, and more recently, Loup Breton. He has a steady pattern of works for the race, and gets an out-of-town rider. He is a must use. There figures to be enough pace to make it open for anyone to win. The pick is Segway. This son of Giant's Causeway won first time out over this course. Last time out he finished a flat 6th in first race in 9 months. He was well backed in that race, even though his trainer is only so-so first off the layoff. The horse should appreciate the extra furlong to work with. His trainer has plenty of experience winning on Breeders' Cup days in the past.
Play: Win bet on Segway; Exacta Box of Segway & Saint Loup
Confidence: 7.5 out of 10
RACE 2
There is a ton of early speed in this race. BIG TIZ can take advantage of the
expected hot pace. She has enough tactical speed to remain in contact early and
inherit the lead from the tiring leaders late in the stretch. MISS OOPS steps way up in class, but
can earn the same trip as the top selection. WARREN’S AMBER will be rolling late from the back of the pack and
could pick up a slice.
Play: Exacta of Big Tiz / Miss Oops, Warren's Amber
Confidence: 8.5
RACE 3
NORTHERN
IOWA cuts back off a close 3rd in a minor stakes at
Fairplex Park.
He has a running style would lend itself to this extended sprint. BASMATI was knocking heads with some
the best in his 2yo season when last scene. He makes his return off an 11 month
layoff in this race. His best is competitive enough to win. SEVEN BRIDGES comes off a maiden win
going longer and could clunk up for a share. GOT EVEN is a play against, as
there is other speed present to prevent him from establishing a clear lead,
which he needs to win.
Play: Win bet on Northern Iowa
Confidence Rating: 7
RACE 4 – JUVENILE SPRINT
The first Breeders’ Cup race of the weekend is the Juvenile
Sprint. In its 2nd year, it attracts a compact field of 7. MERIT MAN is a worthy favorite, as he
can set the lead or sit just off the pace. SUPER
NINETY NINE looks to keep the crown in the Baffert barn for another year
with a track-and-attack trip. SWEET
SHIRLEY MAE is a filly going against the boys. She has plenty of early
speed but showed a new dimension when closing off a hot pace.
Play: NONE
Confidence rating: 3
Chris M's take: This is a race that should be cut from BC weekend. In two years it has
produced two boring heats. After this year the Baffert haters will have
good cause to raise their voice again when Super 99 wins by two. Blah.
RACE 5 - MARATHON
The longest Breeders’ Cup race is up next in the Marathon.
COMMANDER will have the lead early, but considering his unruly demeanor
witnessed yesterday while schooling, one seriously questions his ability to
last the 14 furlongs. WORTH REPEATING
is the horse most likely to inherit the lead if/when Commander stops. He has a
win over the track at a similar distance and looked great during the week. An
interesting longshot is CALIDOSCOPIO
comes in off a 5 month layoff, when winning a Grade 2 in his native Argentina.
He has run well in similar situations in the past. ATIGUN and JAYCITO are
Triple Crown refugees from different years who seem like the same horse, one
who will just clunk along and end getting a share.
Play: Win bet on Worth Repeating
Selections:
#12 WORTH REPEATING
#6 CALIDOSCOPIO
#1 ATIGUN / #5
JAYCITO
Confidence Rating: 7
Chris M's take: Another race to cut. This is the only dirt stake in America where your
lone F can have three lengths on the field after a 53 half and be 8th
turning into the stretch. If you hit a single here your either a time
traveler or a descendant of Charlie Whittingham. If I had to pick one
here it would be Fame and Glory as he has run in the last two runnings
of 20 furlong Cialis Gold Cup.
RACE 6 – JUVY FILLY TURF
Tough race. SKY
LANTERN comes off a grade 1 win in Ireland.
She ran well on harder turf in Europe like she will see
today. SUSTAINED could try to take
the field gate-to-wire from the outside post in a race bereft of early speed.
Her trainer is known for such aggressive tactics in paceless affairs. WATERWAY RUN won going left-handed in Europe,
and has a very American pedigree. NANCY
O could spice up the bottom rungs of the exotics at a big price after a
failed attempt on dirt.
Play: Maybe a .10 super using these in a "chuck-and-pray" stab.
Confidence rating: 5.5
Chris M's take: 14 youngsters stacked on the 7F+ green and you better cross your fingers
that your selection(s) don’t have major trouble. BC longshots usually
blow up the tote when the favorites are closers on the turf and there is
a murky pace scenario, which is the case here. Sky Lantern,
Watsdachances, and Spring Venture all look formidable and will be on my
tickets but the hometown Flashy Ways with Talamo I see taking control
early from post 13 and try to hold. If she isn’t sent a five wide trip
is likely so @ 15/1 she is a play.
RACE 7 – JUVENILE FILLIES
The tagline for this race could be “Speed, speed and more
speed!” BROKEN SPELL will be a huge
price, but she would appear to be able to hang just close enough to grind her
way to a win in what looks to be a staggerfest in the lane. EXECUTIVEPRIVILEGE has done nothing
wrong in her brief career, going 5-for-5. But she has looked very flat the last
two weeks and could be beatable. DREAMING
OF JULIA has shown at least what appears to be ability to rate, though she
has never done actually done it.
Play: Exacta boxes keying Broken Spell with the other two + $2 WP
Confidence Rating: 4
Chris M's take: There are two questions here. Can Beholder get the distance and will
either of the Pletchers be sent after her? If she can get the trip her
last points her as the superior 2yo now. The 44 flat half and 109 final
came on roughly the same surface Coil and company ran on two days later
when they went 3 or 4 clicks slower at each point of call. True, there
was a severe speed/inside bias the first seven days of the meet but if
you can recall a better 6F run by a 2yo, of either sex, in the last 30
years I’d like to hear it. Garrett, from the rail, will race ride either
of the Pletchers if they try to contest the lead. Executiveprivilege
hasn’t looked right in her last two works, beat a poor field in the
Chandelier when the start eliminated her primary competition, and she
coasted on and easy lead. ExecP is the favorite I least like for the
weekend. And yes, as clearly the best horse in the race Beholder can
get the 8.5F’s, even with her breeding
RACE 8 – FILLY & MARE TURF
THE FUGUE has
been specifically pointed to this race by her connections. Coming off a tough
loss in the Yorkshire Oaks to one of the favorites in the BC Turf, she has
looked good here in the states since arriving. She seems to prefer little give
in the ground. NAHRAIN found her
winning form when shipping over for the Flower Bowl last time out. She has won
several strong races over firmer turf and should appreciate the shorter
distance compared to last year. LADY OF
SHAMROCK may be the best 3yo turf filly in America
and loves this course.
Play: Some sort of exotic keying The Fugue on top + plus a flat win bet.
Confidence Rating: 9
Chris M's take: Another deep and contentious turf race complicated by a lack of pace.
Going six deep here with Zagora, Nahrain (why the blinks add off a
win?), The Fugue, Marketing Mix, I’m a Dreamer, and Ridasiyna. A female
Precious Passion would have a two pole backstretch lead vs. this bunch.
RACE 9 – LADIES’ CLASSIC
The Ladies’ Classic is the marquee race of the day. It
brings together several stars of the game together it would figures to be a
good race. ROYAL DELTA comes off a
smashing win in the Beldame. She figures to sit a smart trip tracking 3-4
lengths behind the speed. GRACE HALL
comes off a good win in the Indiana Oaks, can sit a similar trip tracking the
speed and will offer major value in the exotics. QUESTING could steal the race on the front end if no one engages
her early. Both AWESOME FEATHER & MY MISS AURELIA come into the race
undefeated, but both are horses who will fade late at low odds.
Play: $1 exacta Royal Delta / Grace Hall, Questing + $1 trifecta Royal Delta / Grace Hall, Questing / Grace Hall, Questing
Confidence Rating: 9.5
Chris M's take: Now here we have a race! There is a lone F here, IF the jock chooses to
use it. Questing is flat out faster than Love and Pride and can utilize
the existing bias by taking the lead. Of the two undefeated, My Miss
Aurelia has the most to prove. She’s only run two turn races and that
last no pace, last quarter drag race will not set her up for an effort
where she will have to run an entire race vs. a field 3 to 4 times
tougher than she has faced. Awesome Feather has a GR1 vs. older but
hasn’t faced this caliber either. Both will be over bet. Royal Delta was
the beneficiary of the anti-speed Churchill surface last year and a
poor out by It’s Tricky in last @ Belmont. Throw in the abysmal record
of Belmont horses going West and she is a play against. Don’t overlook
Grace Hall for the unders as well as the bomber Class Included, who is
only 16-10-6-0.
RACE 10 – TWILIGHT DERBY
POWER FOOT had no
chance in his last race as the 1-2 runners early finished that way. With a
change in venue & trainer, he has a big chance to blow up the tote. GRANDEUR has run well over firm turf
and on left-handed courses. He struggled against group 3 types in England,
but that may have been because of the course conditions. SPEAKING OF WHICH comes in a graded stakes winner already, having
taking a Group 3 at a longer distance. This might be too short of a race for
his talent.
Play: $2 WPS on Power Foot
Selections:
#3 POWER FOOT
#7 GRANDUER
#2 SPEAKING OF WHICH
Confidence Rating: 8.9
Good luck on day one folks.
