Giving My Ten Cents

Fake Racing Movies Gone Wild

2012-02-01T10:13:00.000-08:00

On Tuesday, a racing-based hashtag swept over Twitter with a rush. Following in the footsteps of other hashtags such as #PopSongJockeys and #PopSongHorses before it, #FakeRacingMovies flooded the Twittersphere with funny, pun-charged titles of movies. Everything from the venerable classics of multiple Academy Award winners to absolute bombs of movies that went in and out of theaters in a flash. As of this blog posting, it was just now starting to fade. Here are some of my personal favorites, with fake movie plot synopsis for each:

Fly So Free Willy - The heart-warming story of boy who helps to save a horse from being gelded in order to save his family.
Denman on Wire - This thrilling documentary about the steeplechase star Denman search for the wire against his rival Kauto Star.
The Mucho Macho Man Who Knew Too Little - In this remake, Mucho Macho Man mistakes a spy's ring tone for the call to the post and falls into an international espionage thriller.
Win Willy Wonka and The Chocolate Factory - In this twist to the classic Roald Dahl novel, 5 people get a chance to win the man behind the famous brand itself as their own personal servant along with his factory of wonderment.
Sex and the City Zip - The four ladies talk about a recent dry spell in the love department.

A Street Cry Named Desire - "Who's Stella?" is the tagline for this imaginative interpretation of this classic story.
Million Dollar Yearling - The story behind how a little filly with a no-name pedigree becomes the sales-topper at the Keeneland September sale.
Under The Tuscan Evening - A divorcee mare hopes a move to Italy will restart her love life. A powerful performance by Diane Lane throughout.
Pletch - Intrepid trainer Todd Pletcher is offered a yearling with an allegedly ho-hum pedigree to train. But after digging into the horse's past, he discovers things may not be what it seems...
Sunday Silence of the Lambs - A young FBI employee is sent to a prison for the criminally insane to befriend a former horse trainer with a medication-positive filled past in a desperate attempt to help stop a vet who is pushing a "killer" performance drug cocktail.

Raiders of the Lost Arch - An venerated racing historian is called upon to stop evil and discover the mysterious Arch of the Covenant, a horseshoe that could change the fate of history.
Yours, Mine and Half Ours - The story of two jockeys who have figure out how to divide their children and possessions during a bitter divorce.
Comma To The Top Gun - A hot shot bush-league jockey is promoted to the McCarron Jockey School, where he tries to overcome his brash attitude, his father's fatal past errors and his inability to use an apostrophe correctly.
Not For Love Actually - Loosely interconnected vignettes about how relationships fall apart, with the racetrack as a backdrop.

Saving the best title for last (via @shesunskippable: )

Weekend at Bernardini's- Two up-and-coming stable-hands discover that their star stallion is dead right before open house weekend at the farm! With the farm in dire financial straits, these two have to pretend their stallion is still the life of the party, with comedic results!

Go ahead and post some of your favorite titles (with plot previews if you want) in the comments section.

Sunshine Millions - California Races

2012-01-27T17:21:00.000-08:00

This Saturday at the Great Race Place the Sunshine Millions will once again fill the stage with state-bred action. There have been some major changes in the program about what is run and the rules behind it. This year's edition brings together three stakes under the banner to help. There will be the ubiquitous food truck festival, along with a performance by Shiny Toy Guns. A good card all-around on this last Saturday in January. (Also on the card are two graded stakes, the Grade 1 Santa Monica and the Grade 3 Santa Ysabel Stakes, but those will be talked in a separate post.)

Before we talk about the races, let's go over the changes to the Sunshine Millions, as this year's program substantially different to what it has been in the pass. To put it bluntly, the only thing continuing on from last year is the Sunshine Millions name, at least when it comes to the Santa Anita races. No longer is it Florida-breds vs. Cal-breds like in the past. Now Santa Anita & Gulfstream Park will both hold state-bred races for the state they are located in instead of the two state-bred groups mixing. All six of the stakes that were part of the Sunshine Millions schedule are now schedule to run at Gulfstream Park. In its place at Santa Anita will be run three Cal-bred stakes taken from other parts of the stakes schedule to fill the gap. The three stakes snatched from elsewhere are the Sensational Star, the Crystal Water and the Valentine's Dancer. These stakes were all introduced in the 1990's for Cal-breds, and for this year will be run under the Sunshine Millions banner. Let's takes these races in order, starting with the Sensational Star.

The Sensational Star is a race down the hillside turf course at the about distance of 6 1/2 furlongs. First, let's scratch Luckarack (who will run in the first on the card instead against blog favorite CAPITAL ACCOUNT) and Mega Heat (who is entered in a race on Sunday instead). As this blog was about to be posted, news broke on Twitter that Caracortado is out of the race due to a minor foot issue. This dramatically changes the betting complexion of the race, as he figured to be the heavy favorite. The field is now a group of 5 lead by former graded stakes winner Compari. This son of Redattore won the 2010 edition of this race gate-to-wire. His early speed is his biggest weapon, and he has used it very effectively. However, he has not shown the ability to pass and win, which is a big problem. Ain't No Other has only one way to go and that is to the lead. He appears to be faster earlier on than Compari, but if ANO's jock attempts to rate him back a bit, it could be to the detriment to both his mount and Compari, as it could lead to a speed duel. The pick is Red Defense (right). This other son of Redattore has won down the hill in the past, has shown the ability to rate and win, and figures to get a perfect stalking trip behind the leaders. The other two in the field are My Summer Slew, who previously won down this hill and comes in 2nd off a layoff; and Tamarack Smarty, who is slightly better at a mile than at this distance.

The Crystal Water returns off a one year hiatus with a surface and distance change. It is now a mile and one-sixteenth on the main track. (It was previously at a mile on the grass) This group of six is evenly matched and each have their own question marks. Legal Separation appears to be the fastest horse early, but can he last in his first attempt routing? Bluegrass Reward comes in off a solid win, and can pass, but can he turn the tide on those in this field who have beat him in the past? Spud Spivens ran a bad race in the Grade 2 San Fernando, but can he rebound off that effort over a surface (dirt) that he has never won over? Thirtyfirststreet just won at this distance at this track and previously won a similar cal-bred stake, but if he figures to be favored, why does the "musical chairs" jockey continue? Holladay Road won his only time on dirt, but can he prevail in his first time against stakes company? Macho Dorado just won here, but can he handle the step up from claiming company? With all these questions out there, this race is a tough one to pick. If you twisted my arm for a pick, I would take the favorite.

The last of the three state-bred stakes is the Valentine Dancer going one mile on the grass. This race was thrown into the air by the scratching of probable favorite Unzip Me, along with Cayanna. It is also being reported that La Sombre will also be scratched. That leaves a field of seven evenly matched females. The role of the favorite now will likely fall to Halo Dolly. This daughter of Popular has won more than 50% of her races lifetime. She won a race similar to this during the summer at Del Mar in the Solana Beach Handicap. She can sit mid-pack and make one run. She did lose to Antares World two back, but that may have been at a distance that is just too far for her. Antares World broke an 8 race losing streak in that win. She seems to prefer a target to run down, and she will get that today. The only horse in this race to defeat open company in a graded stake is California Nectar. She is a speed ball who has only one way to go, and that is fast early. This will be her first route on the grass since a distant 4th in the Miesque S. when she was two. There is not a lot of early speed, but there are serious questions about whether she wants to go this far. Secret Cove is by the underrated turf California sire Tribal Rule. Four of her five wins are on the turf course, and with the cut back to a flat mile, she has a big chance at a bit of a price. She is a must use on the any ticket, including the $250k guaranteed Luck P6 being offered involving these Sunshine Millions race.

For a look at the Florida Sunshine Millions races, please take a look at this post from my good friend Paul over at Picks and Ponderings on Chiago Horse Racing.

So there are some thoughts about the three SoCal races under the Sunshine Millions banner. It figures to be a festive day of racing. Whomever the readers out there land on, this blog wishes you good "Luck".

Drought Report 2012 - 1/20

2012-01-20T11:54:00.000-08:00

This week's Drought Report will be a brief one, as there was no stakes action last weekend. This weekend is the ungraded $75k San Pedro Stakes, which should produce a starter or two for San Vicente Stakes next month. First, a recap of the two races mentioned in last week's report, then a few notable workouts, with a brief preview of the San Pedro Stakes to wrap up the report.

Sky Kingdom won a first level allowance race on 1/12 that turned into a glorified paid workout when the four horse field (already reduced from five due to a scratch) turned into three when the outclassed runner was eased early on. Sky Kingdom took advantage of his lesser competition to stalk the pace, range up to the outside and win geared down without really being asked. If nothing else, he had another trip out on the track to gain some more experience. It did not prove that he can handle a solid pace routing, as some are proclaiming.
Brother Francis scratched out of a maiden special weight on 1/14 with a slight illness, but his trainer James Cassidy said it was only a minor issue and that he should be back on track soon.
Liaison, Grade 1 CashCall Futurity winner, leads off the Santa Anita workers with a bullet six furlong work in 1:11 on 1/19
Rousing Sermon worked six furlongs in 1:14.80 on 1/17
Chips All In, Eddie Logan Stakes winner, worked five furlongs in 1:03.60 on 1/16
Groovin' Solo , half-bro to GSWs Premier Pegasus & Street Hero, worked 5 furlongs in 59.4 on 1/17.
Out of Bounds, Grade 3 Sham Stakes winner, worked at Hollywood Park in first spin since the race, going three furlongs in 37.20
Creative Cause, Grade 1 Norfolk winner, worked six furlongs in 1:14 at Hollywood Park on 1/20

The San Pedro Stakes is a 6 1/2 furlong race on the dirt that will be run this Sunday. It brings together a mixed bag of 6. Drill looks to right the ship on the cutback after back-to-back dismal efforts routing. Midnight Transfer comes in off a fast maiden breaking score on opening day, while Got Even blitz the field in the Cal Breeders' Champion Stakes last out. Passing Game looks to turn the tide on Got Even after having no chance on the speed-favoring track on opening day. Let's Get Crackin comes in from out of town while continuing his musical chair trainer changes. Coach Sickie returns after failing to fire up north. This will be an interesting race, as no one knows exactly how Drill will run. At least while sprinting, Drill has not shown the need for the lead, so if runs back to any of his sprint wins, he should win. Another big question to figure out is how will the three horses who ran on opening day come out of that race? Midnight Transfer would seem to figure things out, but could it be that he just found a soft maiden group instead? The winner will probably be pointed to a start in the San Vicente Stakes, or possibly a race out of town like the Southwest S. at Oaklawn.

Good luck this weekend folks!

San Fernando Stakes + Some Video

2012-01-13T23:52:00.000-08:00

To see the full thoughts from this blog on the Grade 2 San Fernando Stakes, please visit the Thorofan's Handicappers Corner, where this blogger goes over whether or not Tapizar can get an easy enough lead to take this field gate-to-wire. (Short version: The answer is "No".)

But before you go, take a look at what may become a new feature on this blog. Below are videos of the some of the contenders for this weekend's stakes action return to the barn after spending time schooling on Thursday (1/12). The first is of Tapizar, the second is of the Baffert-trained trio Prayer For Relief (San Fernando S.), Ellafitz (Paseana S.) and Candrea (Santa Ynez S.). Good luck this weekend folks.

Drought Report 2012 - First Update

2012-01-12T11:22:00.000-08:00

With the first graded stake at Santa Anita for the Derby group run, now would be a good time to give a brief look at many of the possible horses who could carry the mantle of the "Drought Breaker" to Kentucky the first Saturday in May. This list comprises a mix of grade one winners, other stakes winners, flashy maiden winners and a maiden. The colts are a diverse group of pedigrees, from sprint-leaning to run-all-day types. Some will be pointing to the sprint (San Vicente), while others will be headed toward the Lewis for their next start, with a few hoping to get that elusive allowance race to fill. Let us take a look.

Note: This post was intended to run before the Sham, as a way to introduce everyone to this group of 3yos, but due to "blog operator failure" it is coming out now instead.

Sky Kingdom gets the first nod solely because he will be the first to race among this group, as the ever elusive first level allowance race was used as the 2nd race on 1/12, even though it only had five entrants (two of them being Baffert trainees). This son of Empire Maker broke his maiden when he stretched out to two turns two starts back across town at Hollywood Park. He followed that up with a solid 4th in the Grade 1 Hollywood Futurity. He will be making his first start on dirt today, even though he has been working over the surface since October. His connections are hoping to take advantage of this rarely run condition to get this charge some more experience before tackling stakes once again. With his pedigree, the Derby distance will not be a problem, as his sire is a Belmont winner and his damsire is a well-known provider of stamina. His works haven't been the lightning quick spins his trainer is known for, but they are still solid works.

Brother Francis gets the next nod because he is entered in a maiden special weight on the grass for this Saturday (1/14). He closed strongly in a MSW and in the G3 Hollywood Prevue to finish 2nd in both races. He then followed it up with a fast-closing third in the G1 Hollywood Futurity. This son of Lion Heart is out of a mare who has plenty of distance in her pedigree, and the sire has produced a 12f winner in BC Turf winner Dangerous Midge. His connections obviously want to get a win while keeping him around two turns, and with the track playing with the way it has (favoring on or near the lead types), they have chosen to go the turf in order to get a win. He has worked in trainer's preferred steady manner since the Futurity.

Liaison won the aforementioned G1 Hollywood Futurity over Rousing Sermon. These two made up the exacta in the Real Quiet Stakes as well. Liaison has three solid 5 furlongs workouts since the race, and is most likely pointing to the G2 Robert Lewis stakes in February. Rousing Sermon has worked four times since the race and could be pointing to the same race, though it is possible that either could ship out of town for their next race. Here is a replay of the Hollywood Futurity:

Creative Cause is coming off a third in the G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile last time out. He took some time off the work tab after the race to freshen up for the Derby trail, and did not work until New Year's Eve. He is building towards his first start later in the meet, either the Lewis or the San Felipe. He should have little problem stretching out going forward, being by Giant's Causeway out of a mare who hit the board multiple times going nine furlongs. His stable and owner-mate Empire Way is a full brother to the multiple Grade 1 winning filly ROYAL DELTA, who will most likely wins this year's Eclipse award for 3yo fillies. With her successes going very long, he should not have any trouble with this distance, though he does need to improve to contend with the better runners out here, as he missed the board in both his stakes attempts after his win. He has 3 solid works since the last race. His sister improved as the year went on, so maybe he will as well.

Trainer Steve Asmussen has a few Derby hopefuls as well. Even though his only trainee who is guaranteed a spot in the gate for the Kentucky Derby Sabercat didn't make the trip, he still has such up and comers as Wharton, Unbridled's Note, along with stakes placed Daddy Nose Best. The first two are coming off of maiden special weight wins on the first Stars of Tomorrow card at Churchill Downs. They both are training steadily here and will be looking to make their next start at some point towards the middle of the meet. Daddy Nose Best flopped as the chalk in the Eddie Logan Stakes, but his pedigree says that he should be fine routing on the dirt, something he has never done before. With a dearth of turf stakes in SoCal on the schedule, the connections will most likely find out whether he can truly dirt or not very soon,

Out of Bounds is the last one we will talk about, as he just won the G3 Sham Stakes going a mile at 10-1. He came out of the race very well according to his connections, with plenty of energy. His connections have stated that he will be pointed to the Grade 2 San Felipe in March for his next start. As discussed in the last post, his chances to get 9 furlongs are strong, but that 10f in May will be a bit of challenge. We wish him and all of those on this list good luck and to stay healthy.

These are just a few of the possible horses who could be the one to earn the "Drought Breaker" mantle come the first Saturday in April. It could even be a horse who has not even made a single start yet, like last year's winner Midnight Interlude, who would not make his debut until the end of January. Whomever wins the Santa Anita Derby will earn the right to end the 23 year long streak. Good luck out there.

Drought Report 2012 - Grade 3 Sham Stakes

2012-01-05T23:16:00.001-08:00

With the change in the calendar to 2012, the search once again begins in earnest for a three year old who can end the drought. The now nearly 23 year-long drought since a winner of a the Santa Anita Derby has gone on to win the Kentucky Derby. The first step to finding who will be the one to carry the chances to end the drought is the Grade 3 $100,000 Sham Stakes going one mile. This race has moved around the calendar the last few years and has replaced the now-defunct San Rafael (which was run at the same distance) with the cutback to one mile after last year's running at 1m & 1/16th. A field of six runners comes together, a mix of stakes winners and horses who just broke their maiden.

The morning line favorite will be Secret Circle. This Bob Baffert trainee was last seen gamely holding on in the inaugural running of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint. This will be the furthest he has ever run as he stretches out to two turns for the race. This son of Eddington shouldn't have a problem with the extra distance from a pedigree standpoint, as his sire won several stakes at 9f and further, and his dam having won going two turns as well. He is a horse with ample speed, though as he showed in the Jack Goodman Stakes, he does not need the lead to win. His workouts have been the typical swift Baffert drills in the A.M. He figures to be on the lead or sitting just off a swift pace, a plus on this track.

Out of Bounds (right) broke his maiden last time out across town at Hollywood Park going 7 furlongs. He stalked a solid pace and won at 7 furlongs. He extends another furlong today and returns to dirt in this stake. He loses the jockey who rode him for his first two starts to the favorite, but picks up a more-than-adequate replacement in the red-hot Garrett Gomez, who won several stakes opening week. His workouts have been fast across town at Hollywood Park since the win, which is not the norm for his conservative trainer Eoin Harty. The extra furlong should not be a problem based on his pedigree, as both his sire and dam won going nine furlongs. He is a three-quarter brother to blog favorite Etched, who also won going a mile and an eighth. (Etched is by Out of Bounds grandsire Forestry out of the dam Unbridled Elaine.) He figures to be sitting mid-pack behind the speed and making a run turning for home.

Hierro ships in from Kentucky, along with the rest of the Asmussen contingent, looking to win this race in back-to-back years for the barn. (Tapizar won this race last year) This son of Hard Spun broke his maiden in his third try at the 7 furlong distance last time out. He brings along with him the jockey who rode him in that win in from out-of-town, Julien Leparoux. He is another who stretches out another furlong and goes two turns for the first time. He has worked like clockwork since his arrival, including a bullet two works back. He has been well backed in the future books in Vegas, as he has bet down to a low 25/1. (As a reference point, the favorite is Union Rags at 10/1, Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner is 18/1). His pedigree does not figure to be an issue going one mile, as his sire won going 9 furlongs. He sat off a less-than-blistering pace in his win, so he figures to project to be mid-pack, probably near Out of Bounds.

The other three who make up the field are: Senor Rain, who figures to add to pace, even with the blinkers being taken off; Longview Drive, who comes off a third-place finish in the Delta Jackpot (just like last year's Sham runner-up Clubhouse Ride) and seems to have discovered a passing gear; and Handsome Mike, who cuts back a sixteenth when fading late after setting swift fractions in the Hollywood Futurity. All three have route experience in stakes, with varying results.

The pick is Out of Bounds, as either he or Secret Circle figures to be the one to take advantage of the expected solid pace, and he will be the better price. He will take the first stone of the path to figuring out who will be this year's possible "Drought Breaker".

Good luck folks!

Last Call for A Grade 1 in 2011

2011-12-30T18:56:00.000-08:00

New Year's Eve is a time for celebration, remembrance and ending the new year with a bang. The national graded stakes schedule has a similar ending. The last graded stake of the 2011 calendar is the Grade 1 La Brea Stakes going 7 furlongs for three year old fillies at the Great Race Place. This the last chance for these females to run against their own age group for Grade 1 glory. The field of nine has a mix of up-and-comers, graded stakes winners and a multiple Grade 1 winner as its favorite. Here is a brief run-down of the main competitors.

(Before we get into our thoughts about the La Brea Stakes, this blog is happy to announce the return of "Ten Top's T-Bred" Capital Account. Off since March, he runs in an allowance race that is the second half of the late double with the La Brea Stakes. We wish him luck and hopefully he stays healthy enough to have a productive 2012. Also note that fellow TTT Endorsement makes his second start off his near two year layoff on New Year's Day at Gulfstream Park.)

The probable favorite figures to be Turbulent Descent. This daughter of Congrats hopes to cap off a fine year with one more Grade 1 win, her 3rd of the year to go along with a Grade 2 victory. She looks to bounce back from a disappointing effort as the favorite in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint last time out at Churchill Downs. She has worked swiftly across town since her race, including two bullets. She seemed ready to run when she schooled in the paddock on Thursday (when the picture on the right was taken). Her regular pilot David Flores will be aboard. She figures to be 2-3 lengths off the expected fast pace, stalking and pouncing on the leaders in the stretch. Any further back could be detrimental to her chances based on how the track has been playing.

Great Hot exits the same race TD does, but finished well up the track behind her. She has a graded stakes win at this distance and her North American debut over this track was a jaw-dropping effort. Her trainer has stated that he should could be a little short for this race, but her swift workouts say he could be just being conservative with his thoughts. Home Sweet Aspen is the second choice on the morning line but will probably float up in the odds. She has run well over this track, but breaking from the rail her jockey's hand could be forced to go the lead. She is another with good works over the track, and looks to put that turf experiment behind her.

May Day Rose (right) comes off a brutal loss in the Grade 3 Chilukki on the BC Saturday undercard. She has also won a Grade 3 at this distance as well as a stakes over this track. Her positional speed will allow her to attend the pace without going all out to establish herself early. She will get first jump on the favorite if the race plays out how this blog figures it will. Even though she is the 8/1 5th choice on the morning line, this blog believes her final odds will be closer to 7/2. She was on her toes when she schooled on Thursday (at the same time as Turbulent Descent) as the picture shows. She really caught the eye the entire time in the paddock, and because of that, she will be the selection for this blog.

So there is a quick look at the last Grade 1 of the year. Can Turbulent Descent rebound after flopping as the favorite? Will May Day Rose or Great Hot add to their earlier 2011 graded stakes tallies with a Grade 1? Will a new face jump up and shock the world at a price? Good luck everybody!

A Four Pack of Stakes to Open the Santa Anita Meet

2011-12-26T09:51:00.000-08:00

Opening day at The Great Race Place brings along 4 stakes as a present to the patrons. The action will start with the first race on the card, with the filly division of the Cal Breeders' Champion Stakes. A few races later, the rest of the stakes actions starts with male division of the Cal Breeders' Champion Stakes. Then the graded action starts up with the Grade 3 Sir Beaufort. Then the Grade 1 Malibu wraps up the card and the natural stakes pick 3. Let's get to the action.

The opener on the card is the filly division of the California Breeders Champion Stakes. Six entrants make up the field going seven furlongs, with a mix of some stakes tested horses and some up and comers. The favorite figures to be Ismene. She won the Anokia Stakes last time she ran in October, defeating highly regarded Sister Moon. She has solid speed, but 7 furlongs off two months layoff is not ideal. Willa B Awesome (right) has "danced every dance" in stakes competition this year, and looks to improve on the cutback. The pick is Tangerine Tickle. This daughter of Tribal Rule (as is Ismene) won her debut on turf across-town after a slow start. She appears that she may have some tracking speed to lay closer to the pace, and should come with a good rush at the end.

The open division of the Cal Breeders Champion Stakes brings together a group of 9. The favorite figures to be Stoney Fleece (right). This son of Decarchy captured the Grade 3 Generous (over turf) last time out. He benefited from a fast pace last time out, and the cutback in distance does not figure to hurt him, as he broke his maiden going a shorter distance. The only negative might be the return to dirt, where he ran a so-so 3rd. Passing Game comes off a stakes win up north at Golden Gate. This son of Game Plan will be making his debut over dirt today, but with the expected large amount of speed to be shown, he should get a good race set-up. Motown Men (also by Decarchy) is a need-the-lead type who should appreciate the cutback to one turn. While there is other speed, he has been already battle tested in stakes company.

The graded stakes action begins with the Grade 3 Sir Beaufort going one mile on the grass. The favorite figures to be Mr. Commons. While this son of Artie Schiller has never won a graded stakes, he has run second in several stakes against older, and ran a competitive fifth in the BC Mile. The streaking Ultimate Eagle comes off his Grade 1 win in the Hollywood Derby going 10 furlongs. Cutting back two furlongs does pose a bit of difficulty, especially since he appears to be a need-the-lead type and there appears to be other speed. Venomous and Cozy Kitten also come out of that race, and they would seem to appreciate the cutback to a shorter distance. But the pick is Comma To The Top (right). This former Grade 1 winner returned to the winner's circle in an allowance race last time out, has the speed to clear Ultimate Eagle early, make a move turning for home and just hold off the closers.

The final stake on the card is the Grade 1 Malibu. This long-standing race has a rich tradition of winners, including the great Spectacular Bid. This group does not have a clear standout this year, as the morning line favorite comes off some tough losses. The Factor (right) looked to be a force in the Sprint division this year until he ran two back-to-back sub-par races this fall. He gets off the rail after being stuck down there in his last two starts, and he is working rather stoutly for this race. There also appears not to be a copious amount of raw speed either, so it is possible that, if he is right, The Factor can cross-and-clear to the front and just keep going. But he is one of four for Baffert, with each of them having a shot. Hoorayforhollywood (the pick) comes off a close second in a stakes race at Delta, Smash has always been highly regarded of in the barn, and Racing Aptitude held off his older stablemate in a fast win. Trainer Steve Asmussen sends out three entrants to counter, including the very fast Rothko and the multiple graded stakes placed Wine Police. Throw in the shipper Associate from the Dick Dutrow barn (who brings Ramon Dominguez in tow) and it is a stout betting affair.

So there is a quick look at the stakes action on opening day at the Great Race Place. The action figures to be fast and furious, with plenty of high quality racing. Good luck everybody!

The Beginning of a New Santa Anita Meet

2011-12-23T11:59:00.000-08:00

The day after Christmas will once again bring with the beginning of a new Santa Anita meet. With the passage of time since the autumn meet ended, changes have occurred. Some are good, some are interesting and some have major repercussions.

The first big change is the actual landscape of the track grounds itself. Due to the hurricane-force winds that hit the track at the beginning of the month, several dozen trees suffered damage all over the track grounds. Along the streets that surround the track, several trees were blown clear out of the ground and uprooted. On the west side of the grandstand, three trees fell in the grassy area west of the fountain. Speaking of the grandstand, the roof was resurfaced during the off-season. The giant video board in the infield has been upgraded as well, with the new iteration several feet shorter, allowing for an unobstructed view of the backstretch for the camera.

The stakes schedule has gone some tweaks as well from previous years. The biggest change is the Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks is now being run a week before the Santa Anita Derby this year. In recent times it has been run a month before the SA Derby, (on or around Big 'Cap day). The prep for the Oaks, the Las Virgenes, will slide into the Oaks spot on the calendar. The 3yo colts schedule has also been altered, with the Sham being shortened to the old San Rafael Stakes (which is now completely gone from the calendar) distance of a mile. The R.B Lewis is shortened back to 8.5 furlongs as well. Another change is that the Grade 2 Arcadia Handicap will now serve as the prep for the Grade 1 Kilroe Mile (which is run on the Big 'Cap day undercard) by being run on the Strub Stakes undercard. Other changes include the suspension of the Grade 2 San Luis Obispo (12f on the grass) and the Grade 3 Thunder Road (1 mile on turf) for this year from the stakes schedule.

One change that carries over from last year is the addition of Steve Asmussen's charges to the backside. He brings many of his big buzz horses out with him out west. The biggest name is Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies winner My Miss Aurelia. The division leader will look to add another Grade 1 or two this winter to her already strong resume. Others in his barn include last year's Sham winner Tapizar, up and coming 3yo colt Rothko (who runs in the Malibu) and a ton of soon-to-be-3yo talent with Kentucky Derby aspirations such as Sabercat, Hierro and Wharton.

Opening day figures to be sunny, warm, fast and firm, and filled with good racing. Which soon-to-be 3yo will step up and take control of the division, the SA Derby and head to Kentucky to break the drought? Can a horse use the Strub or La Canada series to launch themselves to older division glory? We shall see if any horse can deliver on these thoughts. Good luck everybody!

A Rousing Hollywood Futurity On Tap

2011-12-15T20:22:00.000-08:00

The last graded stakes of the Hollywood Park meet is the Grade 1 Cashcall Futurity. This race will provide an automatic ticket into the field of the 2012 Kentucky Derby, with the winner's share of the $750,000 purse providing more than enough graded stakes earnings to secure the spot. This race has been won by such Eclipse Award winners as Lookin at Lucky, Declan's Moon and Point Given. In the last decade, three horses have ran in this race and hit the board in the Kentucky Derby. Lion Heart and Pioneerof the Nile won the Futurity and then went on to run 2nd in the Derby, while Giacomo ran 2nd in the Futurity and then went on to shock the world at 50-1 in the Derby. This year's field is sizable one of 13 runners, with a couple of new shooters mixed with in most of the best local threats. Will go over some of the contenders, starting with the rail horse.

Handsome Mike (right) comes out of a game effort in the Generous Stakes last time out. He dueled through fast fractions, won the battle but lost the war to a horse who was well off the pace, but he gamely hung on for second. He hopes to follow the same path as last year's Comma To The Top, who used the Generous as a prep for his win in this race last year. "Mike" was privately purchased after that race by J Paul Reddam (who also the sponsor of this race, CashCall) and now resides in the Doug O'Neill barn. He shows no works since the change in barns, and there is other speed in the race. Several public handicappers like him in the win spot, so no one could begrudge anyone liking him in this spot.

Brother Francis (right) is still a maiden, but has closed strongly to finish 2nd in both of his lifetime starts, his latest in the Grade 3 Hollywood Prevue. He stretches out to a route for the first time. His father won this race back in 2003. No maiden has won this race for its first win in (at least) the last 20 years. His connections are the patient type, and he does appear on paper to working in good fashion towards the race. While he is 20-1 on the morning line, this blog believes he will get bet down to the range of 12-1 or so.

Blingo is a horse who has a considerable amount of buzz behind him. He won a maiden race rallying from the back of the pack in his debut going a flat mile on the grass. He has the same famous connections of Shirreffs-Smith-Moss, and has worked well since the win. There appears to be enough pace to set-up his late kick. This blog thinks that the buzz will drive his odds down from the 8/1 morning line all the way to favoritism.

Rousing Sermon (right) ran a bang-up 2nd on two weeks rest in the Real Quiet Stakes last time out over this track. He won the Cal Cup Juvenile across town at this distance two back, and his trainer say he is going great guns in the morning during his workouts. He has been working locally since the last race. He also makes 3 consecutive starts without some start of layoff, which is always a good handicapping angle.

Liaison defeated Rousing Sermon last time out by making an early move and sustaining it to the wire. He worked across town several times since the last race in typical swift Baffert fashion. He figures to take considerable amount of money at the windows to the point he will be the favorite or second choice. Baffert has won this race 5 times, a record amount.

So there is a look at some of the contenders for the race. Others including the Grade 1 winner Drill, who appears to have gone off form; Majestic City, the morning line favorite who ran second in a Grade 1 at this distance at Keeneland two races back; and Empire Way, the full-brother of the multi-million dollar filly Royal Delta, who bounced off a 11 day layoff in his last race and looks to improve first time routing.

So who will this blog back at the windows? The pick for this blog is Rousing Sermon. He has just enough early speed that he can be close if the pace of the race is not blistering. He also figures to float up from his 6-1 morning line based on the other connections in this race attracting attention at the windows. He hopefully will avenge his loss to Liaison last out. Empire Way will be a large part of any exotics played as well.

Good luck folks!

The Start of a Turf War Throwdown

2011-11-30T11:56:00.001-08:00

Inspired by my love of Weird Al style parodies, Top 40 music, one hit-wonders and hip-hop, this post is a response to something this blog read the other day. It is sort of an attempt at something seen mainly in hip-hop. One of the mainstays of hip-hop is a "beef". This is when two rappers have a disagreement or problem with one another. The hallmark of "beefs" is battling via song. In the spirit of that, this parody is a response to "Havre De Grace" by Ed Derosa, as performed by the undefeated filly Awesome Feather. It maintains the same title as the real song, Jason Derulo's "It Girl".

For those unfamiliar with the song, here is the video (possible NSFW themes). Having the feel for the song in your head helps when reading the lyrics below:

I've been to Florida and Churchill Downs
No one can beat me
I'm training like a maniac, and now I'm back
I'm Awesome Feather
Tell them other girls, just stay in the barn
girl please....
Cause the only time you'll win is ...your dreams
Much more than an Eclipse award
That's what I mean to the sport.

I'm horse racing's it girl
You know I'm the truth girl
Lovin' me isn't a crime
You know I'm fit girl
This is it girl
I'm a gift at 1-5
I just gonna win every race
and be in the middle of the spotlight
I'm horse racing's It girl
I'll be the real big girl

Let me win it fast
Let me win it fast like...
oh oh oh oh (whistles first of "call to the post")
Let me win it fast
Let me win it fast like...
oh oh oh oh
Let me win it fast

I can't help but turn them heads, knockin' them dead.
Dropping like flies behind me
Even if you get too close not getting by
Hoping with the busboy
By some saving grace they put up your number
No chance!
They can try everything to beat me...they want
Like a race replay showing my runs
Every time I race
I'm a gonna win

I'm horse racing's It girl
You know I'm the truth girl
Lovin' me isn't a crime
You know I'm fit girl
This is it girl
I'm a gift at 1-5
I just gonna win every race
and be in the middle of the spotlight
I'm horse racing's It girl
I'll be the real big girl

Let me win it fast
Let me win it fast like...
oh oh oh oh
Let me win it fast
Let me win it fast like...
oh oh oh oh
Let me win it fast

No one can stop me from... winning, winning
all the, all the time, time
I just keep coming, coming
til I cross the line, line
I've got that something, something
You wanna bet this girl
I'm the real deal girl
An Adena Springs girl
Hey baby...
Don't you know I'm the It girl

I'm horse racing's It girl
You know I'm the truth girl
Lovin' me isn't a crime
You know I'm fit girl
This is it girl
I'm a gift at 1-5
I just gonna win every race
and be in the middle of the spotlight
I'm horse racing's It girl
I'll be the real big girl

Let me win it fast
Let me win it fast like...
oh oh oh oh
Let me win it fast
Let me win it fast like...
oh oh oh oh
Let me win it fast

Let me hear you cheer it like...
oh oh oh oh
Everybody at the track let me hear you cheer it like...
oh oh oh oh
I'm the It girl

A Hollywood Prevue to a Star?

2011-11-23T09:20:00.000-08:00

The stakes action starts off this Thanksgiving weekend at the track of the lakes and flowers with the Grade 3 Hollywood Prevue on Turkey Day. Going seven furlongs over the synthetic main track, this race is a prep for next month's Grade 1 Hollywood Futurity. This race in its past boasted winners such as Afternoon Deelites, Lion Heart and champion 2yo Declan's Moon, along with blog favorite Premier Pegasus. A possible star could break out with a strong performance. The field is a nice mix of stakes-tried horses and new shooters with buzz surrounding them. Let go over the field of eight, based on how they figure to run their respective races.

The probable front flight will consist of Sweet Swap, Hodge and So Brilliant (right). Sweet Swap dueled on the lead but faded late last time out in the Jack Goodman Stakes. The winner, Secret Circle, won the inaugural Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint next out. This full brother of Sidney's Candy will look to clear off from the rail. Hodge broke his maiden last time in a gate-to-wire effort while under pressure the entire time. He comes back in only 19 days off that huge effort, but he does have a good work in the interim. So Brilliant dueled early and cleared off to win as a heavily bet favorite in his debut lat month at Santa Anita. He has had four strong works, though why he had one work at Hollywood, then shipped back to SA to work is a bit odd.

The horses sitting in the second flight, about 2-4 lengths back, figure to be Sheer Talent and Mucho Besos. Sheer Talent looks to bounce back after a subpar effort up at Golden Gate. His trainer Dan Hendricks brings him back off on short rest for the race and looks to be the one to "inherit" the lead if/when the speed backs up. Mucho Besos will try to jump off from an maiden claiming win to a graded stakes win. This looks like it might be too much of a step up, though he could get a slice if he gets the trip and one of the closers doesn't fire.

Galex, Empire Way and Brother Francis are the last three in the field. Galex ran 2nd in the Jack Goodman Stakes (beating Sweet Swap in the process) by laying back and making one run. While he did pass the other 4 horses in the field, he lost ground on the winner in the last 8th. He did win his debut gate-to-wire, but he figures to sit off the pace in here. He does have several good stamina building works here. Empire Way won his maiden stylishly 11 days ago rolling by the field from the back. This full brother to multiple grade 1 winner Royal Delta appears to be in this race as more of a building block for the Hollywood Futurity according to his trainer's comments. His trainer also has a less-than-stellar record coming back on short rest (less than 14 days) with a two year old. Brother Francis started slow in his debut but closed quickly to just miss behind Hodge. He should improve with the extra distance, and does have two good works since, but he has never been over a synthetic surface either. He could show more positional speed with a clean break. "Brother" does have history working against him, as in the last twenty years no horse has broken his maiden in this race.

This is a tough race because I can see any number of these winning, but the tepid pick is Sheer Talent to pull an upset. It looks like there is enough speed for the front-runners to be softened up and allow him to "inherit" the lead in the stretch and hold off the closers.

Good luck and happy Thanksgiving everybody!

Post-BC Thoughts

2011-11-09T10:45:00.000-08:00

Not many post-BC Thoughts for this blog, especially with a ton of disinterest in discussing year-end awards until at the earliest the first of the December. This blog did go 22-9-3-2 over the two days at Churchill Downs. (Taking early bird sign-ups for a possible BC 2012 syndicate now in the comments section!) But the lack of starting funds prevented a better outcome when it came to the wagering. So instead of some long diatribe about the weekend, this blog offers a picture of rainbow that appeared after a shower hit Santa Anita on Friday around first post.

This blog will take some time off until the Hollywood Turf Festival over the Thanksgiving Day weekend (unless something major comes up that this blog begs to require comment)

BC Saturday Selections (Undercard Included)

2011-11-05T00:20:00.000-07:00

Breeders' Cup Saturday comes bringing high intrigue, high drama and a high bar to top Friday's wild outcomes. After a solid 4-for-10 yesterday, can this blog keep it up? Let's get right into the action with the first race on the card.

The first race is a entry-level allowance race for females going a one-turn mile. Two horses catch the eye here. Jump Up will be the probable favorite based off a fast maiden win in her debut at Keeneland. She has worked well here at Churchill and her pedigree states that dirt will not be a problem. The other one that catches the eye is Dreamingly. While she has never been on dirt, it doesn't look like it will be a problem. These two look like they will appreciate the one-turn and will be on or near the lead.
Pick: #8 Jump Up - Others to consider: #5 Dreamingly
Confidence Rating: 8.5; 9 that one of two will win

The second is the $65k Dream Supreme Stakes. There is a very vulnerable morning line favorite.in Dancinginherdreams. She has not shown much improvement from her two year old form (which included a win here) and looks to be beatable. Grandacious has a chance to gate to wire, but can pass if needed; Salty Strike is 3-for-4 over the Churchill Downs track; Splendor Town has shown occasionally ability that could win this at a big number.
Pick: #8 Salty Strike - Others to consider: #1 Grandacious, #9 Splendor Town
Confidence Rating: 8.5; 9.6 that one of the three will win, 10 that Dancinginherdreams will not win.

BC Marathon is the first big race of the day. This blog is just taking a stab in this race, as it has no real opinion. Birdrun looks like he might be able to go gate-to-wire here in this 14 furlong race.
Pick: #1 Birdrun
Confidence Rating: 1, as the scale does not go any lower.

Next up is the Juvenile Turf. Another tough race where contention runs deep. The very tepid selection is Wrote. This son of multiple BC Turf winner High Chapparal has won two of four, with the two wins coming on courses with turns (albeit right-handed). The others this blog would use in multi-race exotics are the undefeated on turf Finale, Bourbon runner-up Coalport and another Euro in Caspar Netscher.
Pick: #5 Wrote - Others to consider: #13 Finale, #6 Coalport, #7 Caspar Netscher.
Confidence Rating: 3.3

The Sprint is another tough race, though this blog is going to take a stand. The pick is Force Freeze. He blew away the competition in first start in the U.S back in July. He valiantly tried to get to fellow runner Giant Ryan last time out when he just could not get there while running against a speed-favoring track at Belmont. He has two nice works and looks to have first jump on the closers.
Pick: #6 Force Freeze
Confidence Rating: 6.7

The Turf Sprint starts the $3m Ultra Pick 6 with a well-matched full field of 14. The pick is Regally Ready, as he has experience over the course, a solid post, can be on the lead but does not need it. If one wants to look past him, it becomes a wide open affair with many, many options.
Pick: #8 Regally Ready
Confidence Rating: 5.5 (Turf sprints at Churchill Downs is not one of my strengths)

The BC Dirt Mile is a race that has a short history but all of its winners have one thing in common: They all ran their last race at nine furlong. The only member of the field to do that was Tres Borrachos. But his form is very suspect and he will be used only because of the above angle. The pick is Irrefutable. Coming off a good second in the Ancient Title, the "other Baffert" looks to finally get his chance at this extended sprint. With a win over the track earlier in the year, he looks primed for a big effort. The other horse being used is Trappe Shot. The whole year this son of Tapit has been running at six furlongs, and each time this blog played against him. Now he finally stretches out to a distance that allows him to use his track-and-attack skills to better use, he can get the jump on likely favorite Caleb's Posse.
Pick: #6 Irrefutable - Others to consider: #9 Trappe Shot, #4 Tres Borrachos
Confidence Rating: 6.9; 9 that one of these three is the winner.

This blog's thoughts on the Breeders' Cup Turf can summed up with one sentence: "Any European-based horse that gets beat by an American based horse isn't allowed back on the plane to Europe."
Pick: #1 St. Nicholas Abbey (because he is the 1st Euro they will load into the gate) - Others to consider: The other four Euros: #2 Sarafina, #6 Await The Dawn, #7 Sea Moon, #9 Midday
Confidence Rating: 4; 10 that a Euro will win.

The Juvenile is another Classic East-West match-up as Champagne winner Union Rags faces off vs. Norfolk winner Creative Cause. This blog is going to go out on a limb and not pick either or those or Norfolk runner-up and Del Mar Futurity winner Drill. Instead the pick is Champagne runner-up Alpha. Making his first start around two turns is a big key for a horse his trainer said is still learning the game. Along with Dullahan, this is another spread race.
Pick: #9 Alpha - Others to consider: #7 Creative Cause, #2 Dullahan, #4 Drill, #10 Union Rags
Confidence rating: 4, 9.5 that the winner is one of those five listed.

The race that the world cannot wait to see is the Mile, as Goldikova looks to win an unprecedented 4th straight Breeders' Cup Mile. Some say she has lost a step, some doubt whether she can win this, but to play against her is a dangerous proposition. However, this blog will have a different horse as its top pick while using the mare in everything. If she has traffic troubles and just can't find her way to the winner circles, Jeranimo could be the one to take advantage. He ran a monster race in the Oak Tree Mile and is coming blazing. He will be sitting just off of Sidney's Candy, and when that one loses the lead in the stretch, he will have first jump on the come-from-behind horses. At a big price, he is worth a flyer.
Pick: #7 Jeranimo - Others to consider: #1 Goldikova
Confidence rating: 4; 9 that if he doesn't pull the upset, she completes the 4-peat.

So here we are at the main event, the Classic. This blog makes no apologies for being a huge fan of Flat Out. Since the beginning, way back before this blog was even a possibility, way back in late 2008, Flat Out caught the attention of this writer. He was at one point the choice for the Derby. Thought to be another casualty of the Derby trail after he was hurt, he made his comeback off a 20 month layoff with a win in December. After a false start over the winter, he returned with a 2nd, then a flop in the Stephen Foster while stuck on a dying rail. Bouncing back with good performance after good performance, he won his last start to give his trainer the long sought after first Grade 1 win. Now it is his time to reward his connections with a win in the biggest race of the year. The only horses that can stand in the way of this goal is the globe-trotting So You Think and the stubborn front-runner Game On Dude. No one else scares this blog. Not Uncle Mo (too far, poor preparation), not Havre De Grace (too far), not To Honor and Serve (cannot pass, will not get the lead).
Pick: #2 Flat Out
Confidence Rating: 7.8 (So You Think wins if he takes to dirt.)

There you go, all...Wait, there's another race after the Classic? Why? "Traffic Considerations"? Alright. (looks over the PPs, cracks a big smile)

May Day Rose caps off a possible huge day for Bob Baffert by going gate-to-wire in what race caller and the current voice of the Breeders' Cup Trevor Denman " a stylish performance".
Pick: #9 May Day Rose
Confidence rating: 9.6

Good luck folks. Go Flat Out!

BC Friday Selections (Undercard Included)

2011-11-03T17:01:00.000-07:00

The biggest two days of the year is finally here, and there is some excellent racing and wagering opportunities. The card covers four allowance races as an extended warm-up to the six Breeders' Cup races. This blog thoroughly enjoys the undercard races on big days like this, especially this weekend in particular. Several poor BC's (from a wagering standpoint) were saved by nice cashes in the races that surrounded the main event. This blog will offer some thoughts on each race on the card. Some races will have more commentary than others, and each top pick will get a "Confidence Rating" for each race. (1-10; 1: "Had to pick someone.", 5: "Kinda like it.", 10: "Go to the window."

The first race is a second level allowance race, with the additional option of running for a claiming price of $62,500. The morning line favorite and the pick is Grand Traverse. This gutty 8yo gelding just shows up every single time. He figures to benefit from the expected hot pace and will be unaffected by the off track. Several of his foes are coming off a layoff, with some off several months. While he is the favorite, he figures to be no lower than 2-1. He is a great way to start your wagering weekend with a nice cash.
Pick: #5 Grand Traverse
Confidence Rating: 10 (Best Bet all weekend)

The second race for horses who not won a race other than maiden, claiming or starter allowances in their careers. Last year's Kentucky Jockey Club winner Santiva returns to the races after finishing well back in the Belmont Stakes in June. He was installed as the morning line favorite, but he looks highly vulnerable due to his lack of recency and the the fact that this is a one-turn mile, where he has been more effective at two turns. This blog like Katz My Song to go gate-to-wire. The lack of other true speed figures to let this Pletcher trainee to establish earlier position and keep going all the way to the wire. Relinquere interests some due to fact that he ran alright in his first race in over a year last out and should improve second time out in a return to dirt.
Pick: #9 Katz My Song - Others who can contend: #8 Relinquere
Confidence Rating: 8.2; 9.4 that one of the two will win)

The third is the only graded stakes on the undercard, the G3 Ack Ack Handicap. This is a competitve, evenly matched field. There are some true need the lead types in here, which should induce a solid pace. The choices are Mister Mardi Gras and Glenwood Canyon. These two are solid horses coming off good efforts. MMG cuts back from a fast-closing 4th in the Hawthorne Gold Cup. The winner of that race is headed to the Classic, while two others will head to the Marathon. He cuts back in distance to 8.5 furlongs, which should help his late kick. Glenwood Canyon comes of a game effort getting up n the final strides.
Co-Picks: #4 Mister Mardi Gras, #5 Glenwood Canyon
Confidence rating: 7.4 that one of these two is the winner

Race 4 is the Jimmy V Stakes, and while there are some interesting longshots worthy of maybe a flyer, the lack of even a so-so opinion makes this a race where the voucher will stay in the pocket.
Picks: None
Confidence Rating: N/A

Race 5 is the 1st Breeders' Cup race of the day, the Juvenile Sprint. The newest race on the program figures to have the shortest favorite in Secret Circle. He looks unbeatable at very low odds and is the most likely winner among the 15 BC races. Maybe Blacky The Bull to spice up the exacta?
Pick: #6 Secret Circle
Confidence Rating: 9.8

The Juvenile Fillies Turf begins the races for the females that will make up the rest of the card. A full field of 14 fillies will run. Elusive Kate figures to be the favorite based of her record in Europe. Two domestic horses worth a shot at long odds are front-runner Sweet Cat and deep closer Stephanie's Kitten. This is a very tough race to narrow down.
Pick: #5 Stephanie's Kitten - Others to use: #6 Sweet Cat, #10 Elusive Kate
Confidence Rating: 3; 5 that one of three will win

Next up is the Filly & Mare Sprint. The first and second choices on the morning line reside here in Southern California in Turbulent Descent and Switch. Along with Tanda, Irish Gypsy and Great Hot, this race looks like it could be dominated by the West Coast.
Pick: Tanda (Blog favorite, this pick definitely has some sentiment attached to it.)
Confidence Rating: 4; 9 that one of those five will win.

A classic east-wet showdown in the Juvenile Fillies with the winners of the Frizette (My Miss Auerlia) and Oak Leaf (Weemissfrankie). This blog thinks that M.M.A. is very vulnerable as the favorite and will not be on any of the tickets. Weemissfrankie will come from the back of the pack with her run. Grace Hall has a ton of buzz around her off her last win. The Euro invader Questing has a very dirt friendly pedigree. (Hard Spun out of a Seeking the Gold mare) Also pulling for Putthebabiesdown, as she is a daughter of Closing Argument.
Pick: #11 Weemissfrankie - Others to use: #5 Grace Hall, #1 Questing, #7 Putthebabiesdown
Confidence Rating: 6; 7.6 that one of those four will win

The Filly and Mare Turf is 11 furlongs due to the configuration of the Churchill Downs turf course. That additional furlong for this blog cuts down the possible winners to just four horses. Nahrain and Announce come off a ding-dong battle in the Prix de l'Opera, with Nahrain prevailing. That was a grueling effort for her coming in just her fourth start. This blog thinks that Announce can turn the tables on her and win today. The only two with a puncher's chance at victory are Stacelita and Dubawi Heights. The "home" team's beast chances ran 1-2 in the Beverly D. earlier in the year and come off wins in the respective Grade 1 preps.
Pick: #6 Announce - Others to use: #5 Nahrain, #2 Stacelita, #1 Dubawi Heights
Confidence Rating: 6.1; 8 that one of these four will win

The last race on the first day of the Breeders' Cup is the Ladies' Classic. The best dirt female is headed to the Classic, so this race is ripe for the taking. The original plan was the swing for the fences with Medaglia D'Amour, but with her becoming ill and being scratched, it is back to drawing board. The horse who was the biggest threat to her was Royal Delta. This Empire Maker filly came into her own as the season progressed, including winning the Alabama. She figures to get a good tracking trip off of Plum Pretty, then burst to the lead. Her last race (The Beldame) has been a prime prep for winning this race when it is held at Churchill.
Pick: #6 Royal Delta
Conifdence Rating: 7.9

Here are a couple of stabs at the P5 and late P4, both .50 base:
Pick 5: 5 / 8,9 / 4,5 / ALL / 6 = $22
Pick 4: 1,2,3,6,8 / 1,5,7,11 / 1,2,5,6 / 6 = $40
So there are some picks for Friday. Coming up soon will be the thoughts on Saturday, including the Classic. Good luck folks.

A Few Random BC Post-Draw Thoughts

2011-10-31T18:08:00.000-07:00

A few random BC post-draw thoughts:

Unless Tres Borrachos pulls off a major upset, this year's Dirt Mile winner will be the first to NOT have prepped in a nine furlong race in their previous start.
Bob Baffert will have 40% of his entrants breaking from post position number one, including three of the four dirt Sprint races, with only Secret Circle avoiding the rail in the sprints.
As expected, the U.S-based runners in the BC Turf are the four longest shots on the morning line. The division has fallen hard this year.
Medaglia DAmour has a real chance to blow up the tote in the Ladies' Classic.
Jackson Bend going in the Sprint instead of the Dirt Mile might have cost him a chance at the Eclipse award for Champion Sprinter. If 6 furlongs proves to be too short and someone like Caleb's Posse or The Factor wins the Dirt Mile, they could snatch the award away from him.
Loved the lively debate on Twitter today about why Uncle Mo will be the post-time favorite in the Classic.
Honestly, what was Mike Battaglia thinking when he made up the morning line for the Juvenile Fillies Turf? 134.76% is never an acceptable total for a set of odds, not even with the 20-runner Kentucky Derby!

Here are Battaglia's morning line totals for each Breeders' Cup race:

Slow Your 'Mo

2011-10-27T17:15:00.000-07:00

With the Breeders' Cup only days away, handicappers across the globe have started the task of dissecting the past performances of the pre-entered horses. From probable short-priced favorite Secret Circle in the Juvenile Sprint on early Friday afternoon to Uncle Mo in the Classic, the list of horses to cut through is large. The Classic is the marquee event, with the juvenile champion Uncle Mo and the filly Havre de Grace being the headliners. Others will fancy the New Zealand (by way of Australia and Europe) invader So You Think and the domestic feel-good story Flat Out. But for those who like Uncle Mo, here is another piece of information that may cause some concern.The following sheet shows the odds and the finishing place of the lowest odds three year old in the Classic for every year since the Breeders' Cup inception. ~~(except 1985)~~ [Now updated with 1985's result. Thanks Steve]
Only A.P. Indy has won among any of these fine three year old colts, among them five year end champions. Of the eight favorites, five have hit the board, which represents over half of the eight total on the board finishes. For those who think Uncle Mo is a standout and will win the Classic, maybe this piece of history will cool your enthusiasm just a little.

If I Owned That Horse... (Breeders' Cup Edition)

2011-10-08T11:21:00.000-07:00

With the Breeders' Cup a little more than 4 weeks away, some of the top name horses have some options on which race they could point to championship weekend. Some of their connections will choose the more conservative route, pointing to the easier race, while other connections will go for broke and choose the race with the bigger reward. Neither strategy is wrong, though some of the decisions are more frustrating to the average fan than others. Some fans would prefer to see certain match-ups to occur, while others would prefer a chance to play against a horse they believe has little chance at short odds. Here is are a few select horses who have some options, along with where this blog thinks they should go.

Uncle Mo
Most likely BC race: Classic
Blog's choice: Dirt Mile
The defending champion 2 year old won the Grade 2 Kelso in his last start in a fast time. But that was only his second start coming back from his illness that knocked him most of the Spring and Summer. He has only two one-turn races to build from to go ten furlongs (a distance he has never been). His trainer Todd Pletcher has a poor record in the Classic (and among his Breeders' Cup runners in general), going winless in the race from nine entrants. His owner Mike Repole is going to roll the dice and run him in the Classic. This blog think Mo should go in the Dirt Mile instead for the simple fact that he just has not had the right set-up heading into the Classic. To win a Breeders' Cup race, everything needs to go right, including the preps. Mo's races set him better up for the Dirt Mile, where he would be a heavy favorite and could win in devastating fashion.

The Factor:

Most Likely BC Race: Sprint
Blog's Choice: Dirt Mile
The "Speed Freak" runs in Saturday's Ancient Title Stakes at Santa Anita. He is listed as the 3/5 morning line favorite and figures to be tough in there. He is a fast horse without a rating gear. If he wins on Saturday, he will have a strong resume for winning the Eclipse for Champion Three Year-Old Male topped off with a Breeders' Cup win. With his style, he would appear to have an easier time establishing his forward position in the Dirt Mile than the Sprint. Both races are Grade 1, so why not take the slightly easier race and lock up the division title? (With maybe a showdown with Uncle Mo?)

Twirling Candy
Most likely BC race: Dirt Mile (Classic being considered)
Blog's Choice: Mile
The John Sadler trainee had to miss the Goodwood Stakes last week due to a minor hiccup in his training. The connections say they will work him right up to the Breeders' Cup. He has three tries to win at the Classic distance of 10 furlongs, and while being right there, he seems to just not have the same "wow" factor he showed at shorter distances. With the BC being the location of his final start of his career, the connections are looking to add to his stallion resume with another Grade 1 win. That is why this blog should go in the Mile. While it would be a tougher race, the probable race flow for the race figures to be ideal, as he would get a dream trip behind his former stablemate Sidney's Candy. Twirling is already a graded stakes winner on the grass, and what better press could one get then the to stop the immortal Golidkova's attempt at a 4-peat?

Acclamation
Most likely BC race: Turf (but would go to the Classic if the turf is less than firm)
Blog's Choice: Turf
The connections of this Horse of the Year candidate has a tough decision to make with this cal-bred son of Unusual Heat. If they decide to go ahead and run in the Classic, they could throw away any chance at any year-end award. If they stay in the Turf, their fate is not in their own hands, as they will need help. This blog thinks that even if the turf comes up less-than-firm, the connections should stay in the Turf. Being a Southern California native, this blog has seen plenty of Unusual Heat's progeny run on the grass, but very few on a non-firm surface. The feeling from this blog is that UH's do not care for a grass course that has some "give" in it. However, the Churchill Downs turf course does seem to favor horses who lay closer to the pace when it is in this condition. With Acclamation's running style, he could be at an advantage.

Gio Ponti
Being pointed to: Mile
Where they should be pointed to: Classic
This son of Tale of the Cat has been second in both of his tries in the Breeders' Cup, finishing behind Zenyatta in the 2009 Classic and behind Goldikova in the 2010 Mile. He has not won in a year and appears he might just be on the downside of his career. His best may not even hit the board this year in the Mile, and it would be a sad way to end his career. Turf horses in America struggle to make it as sires unless they show some sort of dirt form (see: Giant's Causeway). That is why the connections should go for broke and run in the Classic. If he hits the board, it would be a major boost to his stud value. If he falters, it does not change the perception of him as being a turf horse.The risk surely worth the reward, no?

Speaking of Turf, this post is the the first since this blog proudly joins TURF, a collective of racing writers out to keep people informed about all aspects of the sport we all love. The driving force behind the group is the immensely talented Valerie Grash, the person behind the blogs Foolish Pleasure and Fillies First. She has put together quite an esteemed and varied group of racing scribes. Make sure to check it out at http://www.turfbloggers.blogspot.com/.

There are some thoughts about where this blog thinks certain horses SHOULD run when it comes time to the first weekend in November. As always, the fan always knows what is best for the athlete, right?

Santa Anita Starts the Fall Meet With A "Maddy"-ing Tough Stakes

2011-09-28T21:37:00.000-07:00

With the change in the season to fall, the Southern California circuit returns to the Great Race Place at the foot of the San Gabriel Mountains. This year marks the first time in 43 years that the fall racing is not run by the Oak Tree Racing Association. Santa Anita has taken the dates from them after evicting them two years ago. Opening weekend will offer seven graded stakes spread over the three days, including five grade ones. The traditional commemorative stein given away has been replaced on the calendar by an ever popular food truck festival in the infield. With all of the changes about, the stakes schedule starts off in the same way it had in recent years, with a turf sprint. The Grade 3 race figures to produce multiple starters for the Breeders' Cup. Here is some thoughts about the first stake of the Santa Anita Fall meet.

The opening day feature is the Grade 3 Senator Ken Maddy Stakes for fillies and mares three year old and up going about six and a half furlongs down the hillside turf course. The defending champion is back in Unzip Me. This Cal-bred daughter of City Zip returns to defend her crown off a fine win at Del Mar. She is five for seven (with a second) down the hill in her career. She hopes to use this race as a springboard to the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint like last year, where she finished third. Her regular jockey Rafael Bejarano will be in the irons. While breaking from the inside posts is normally not ideal, the small field makes it less likely to have its normal negative effect.

The likely second choice figures to be blog favorite Tanda (right). This daughter of Sweetsouthernsaint finally broke her five-race losing streak in the Grade 3 Rancho Bernardo Handicap last time out, getting her first win of 2011. She moved into the Mike Mitchell barn prior to the win, and her new regular rider is Joe Talamo. It pained this blog to miss the win, but glad she made it to winner's circle.She will break to the outside of Unzip Me, hoping to get a nice stalking trip off of her. She has worked well since the win, finishing off her preparations with a bullet 5 furlong drill across town. She has a 4-2-1-0 record lifetime over this unique course. Her goal this year is the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint on the main track at seven furlongs. Under the allowance conditions of this race, she gives three lbs. to Unzip Me.

The other entrants are Separate Forest, who beat the top two back in April in the Grade 3 Las Cienagas; Broken Forest & Givine, who have traded decisions with each other and Separate Forest (All 3 finished behind Unzip Me in the Daisycutter last time out); and Waveline.

This race is the first of many Breeders' Cup preps at Santa Anita the next two weekends. This season is filled with hope from all the divisions. Who will go on to glory? Can Tanda avenge her loss from April? Will Unzip Me continue her winning ways all the way to Louisville? We shall see. Good luck everybody!

One Thousand Dollars

2011-09-10T12:54:00.000-07:00

This blog comes back from its unintended extended hiatus with a look at what one thousand dollars could have bought you at the 2010 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. The below spreadsheet is a list of every yearling that was purchased for $1,000 at the sale. These horses were sold as early as Book 3 all the way until the end of the sale. The sires range from the lesser-known and young sires all the way up to sires with above-average stud fees. Sixty-five horses make up the list, thirty-five colts and thirty fillies. Below is the spreadsheet listing all 65 horses.Out of the seventeen horses from the group who have made at least one start, ten have won. That is a high percentage (59%) given the stock and the cost. Even if none of the other horses in the group were to race, they would still have a collective 15% winner percentage, which is amazing considering the price. The highest earner so far Danger Storm, who is also entered in today's Grade 3 Arlington-Washington Futurity. He has made 10 starts this year, with a 1-1-2 record.This spreadsheet will be updated to keep track of this rag-tag group of horse, along with a quarterly look back at the horses to see how they progress going forward. This group looks to show that even with a small price tag, big things can happen.

A Tiger Defending His Crown

2011-07-29T08:54:00.000-07:00

As the second week of "where the turf meets the surf" rolls on, the Grade 1 Bing Crosby Stakes is the big race of the weekend. This Sunday at Del Mar brings together of a field of seven sprinters, including the defending champ Smiling Tiger. He looks to hold off several challengers to his throne, including the horse who defeated him back in January, Euroears. This race could end up having major end-of-the-year award ramifications. With the lack of star power in the handicap and three year old male divisions, Smiling Tiger could be the first horse who is exclusively a sprinter in a long time (maybe ever) to have a chance at Older Male and Horse of The Year honors if he runs the table. Let's break down this group, starting with the favorite and defending champ.

Smiling Tiger (right) Comes off a huge win in the Grade 1 Triple Bend Handicap at Hollywood Park last month. He bounced back from a trouble-filled 6th in the Churchill Downs Handicap, which is his only off the board finish in his career. He returns to the site of his first graded stakes win of his career last year, which occurred in this race. His win last year was the earliest win by a three year old versus older horses in graded stakes competition. He was the only three year old to beat older horses multiple times in graded stakes competition. He has the rail draw, which he is winless from in his career. This race is being run under stakes conditions, which means that he is giving at most four lbs. to his competitors. The lack of weight difference plus his consistency and gameness all lead to him defending his title.

The horse who defeated him earlier this year at Santa Anita is Euroears. This son of Langfuhr has not raced since finishing 2nd in the Dubai Golden Shaheen in March, finishing a solid second to top international sprinter Rocket Man. Euroears has worked in typical swift Baffert fashion coming off the layoff, with several bullets in tow. His jockey for the last few mounts Mike Smith chooses to stay with Amazombie, so top local jock Rafael Bejarano will take over the mount. His pedigree is not great for the Del Mar Poly, with his sire's runners having only win out of nineteen tries. With his need-the-lead style he may have some trouble getting separation from the other speed, especially Smiling Tiger.

Amazombie finished 3rd in Triple Bend behind Smiling Tiger with no apparent excuse. He's had some nice easy works since that race, with his last two coming over the track. It is possible that he could just being wearing down a little, with this being his 7th start this year and him running every four weeks like clockwork since last October. Mike Smith chooses him over Euroears. His pedigree is solid for his initial try over the Del Mar Poly, with both sire and damsire having good numbers.

The others in the field are Grade 1 winner Kinsale King, who was last seen being a late scratch in Dubai; Grade 2 winner Coffee Boy, who makes his first stakes start for his new trainer Mike Mitchell; and allowance runners Carbonite who makes his first career stakes start and Color of Courage, who followed two strong allowance wins with a poor 5th in the Triple Bend.

So there are some thoughts on the Bing Crosby. Can Smiling Tiger defend his crown, avenging his defeat to Euroears? Can Amazombie get that Grade 1 win, continuing his fairytale run for his connections? Will Kinsale King regain his past form and rise to glory? We shall see. Good luck everybody!

Ten's Top T-breds - An Explanation

2011-07-13T15:25:00.000-07:00

Today's post is a bit of a departure from the normal fare, as it is not talking about one specific race or topic, but a look inward at explaining one of the things about this blog. On the left side of this blog, beneath the TBA widgets is a sidebar know as Ten's Top T-Breds. This is a list of this blog's favorite horses currently in training around the nation. Some of these horses this blog has never seen before in person, others he has watched since the beginning of their careers. There is no set rhyme or reason why any of these horses ended up on this list, but they all have a spot in this blog's heart. There was just a moment in which this blog and the horse just clicked at some point, usually (but not always) early on in their career. Now the TTT-Bred list shows only five horses currently right now, but there are actually nine on that list. The reason only five are shown at one time is that listing nine ended up looking too cluttered to be effective. The horses are rotated in depending on whether they are starting soon or not. Only two horses have permanent spots on the list, Tanda and Premier Pegasus. Here are the nine horses, along with a quick bio of each.

Tanda [right](Sweetsouthernsaint - Docs Stormy Girl) is a four year old filly in the Dan Hendricks barn here in Southern California. This blog first joined the bandwagon after a nice allowance win in March of 2010 after first seeing her in her maiden win in the opening weeks of the Santa Anita meet. She then went on to win two Grade 3 races in the Santa Paula and Railbird Stakes before her 2010 year ended with a troubled third in the Grade 1 Acorn. She has made three starts this year, most recently a third in the Redondo Beach Stakes. She is pointing to the Grade 2 A Gleam Handicap at Hollywood Park this weekend.

Flat Out (Flatter - Cresta Lil) is a five year old horse in the Charles "Scooter" Dickey barn in Kentucky. This blog "clicked" with him after his maiden win at the Fair Grounds in December 2009. He went on to win the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park before finishing off the board in two stakes along the Derby trail. He was off the track from the 2009 Arkansas Derby to December 2010, when he won an allowance race at the Fair Grounds. This was followed by another layoff until a 2nd in the Lone Star Park Handicap on Memorial Day. After a dull effort in the Stephen Foster, he bounced back with a superb win in the Suburban Handicap. He is pointing to either the Iselin Handicap or the Woodward Stakes.

Premier Pegasus [right] (Fusaichi Pegasus - Street Hero) is a three year old colt in the M.K. Cho barn here in Southern California. He is 4-for-5 lifetime, with his only loss being a 3rd to the Factor in the San Vicente Stakes. His biggest win came in his most recent race, when he decimated the field in the San Felipe Stakes. Unfortunately, he was forced to the sidelines after that race due to an injury. He is due to return to training in a couple of weeks.

William's Kitten (Kitten's Joy - Blush) is a four year old colt in the Michael Maker barn. He (along with with the now retired multiple grade 1 winning & former inaugural TTT-bred Blame) caught the eye with his devastating win on the 2009 Super Derby undercard. After two so-so efforts over synthetics, he ran second to the eventual Kentucky Derby winner in the KJC. He started 2010 strong with a third in the Holy Bull, but was derailed with an injury that sideline him for a year. He has not shown the same spark this year, but this blog still cheers for him.

Wasted Tears (Najran - Wishes and Roses) is a six year old mare bred, owned and trained by Bart Evans. She caught the eye first in the 2010 Grade 3 Honey Fox, when this blog picked her to win even though she was a speed horse breaking from post 13 (She won). This blog has a soft spot for speed horses who have "come and catch me" speed AND tenacity in a stretch duel. She finished off the board in her last start attempting to stretch her speed 9.5 f in the Grade 3 Modesty Handicap. The connections are hoping to get her a grade 1 win, so if they do not head back to Del Mar to defend her title in the Mabee, maybe the Grade 1 Diana on 7/30 is the next target?

Might (Arch - Liable) is the full sister to 2010 BC Classic and Champion Older Male Blame. She is in the same barn and owned by the same people as Blame. She has been a TTT since the beginning of her career due to whom her brother is, but she has kept her place after some good efforts, including a nice win on the Kentucky Oaks undercard. She has not worked since an off-the-board finish in the Dogwood Stakes last month.

Chosen Miracle (Ghostzapper - Royally Chosen) is a three year old colt who is the newest addition to TTT. This blog talked about him before his off the board finish in the Iowa Derby last month. There are rumors he is coming to the West Coast and Del Mar for the Oceanside Stakes next week.

Beyond Loaded [right] (Lindsey's Roberto - Ready and Willing; 8yo) and Capt. Sparrow (General Meeting - J. T.'s Pirate; 7yo) are the last two horses on the TTT. Both are older Cal-bred lower-level claimers who have been around a long time on the Southern California circuits. Both broke their maiden in their respective debuts, paying boxcars, and have slid down the ranks over the years.. They are the kind of horse who are the lunch pail, hard hat, grinding type of claiming horses that make up the backbone of the game.

So there are the horses who make up the roster of Ten Top T-Breds. The love never stops for these fine animals nor any of the other runners. Good luck out there folks.

Hollywood Gold Cup - Swaps Thoughts

2011-07-07T10:33:00.000-07:00

The Grade 1 Hollywood Gold Cup has a long, rich history that one of a field of eight hopes to add upon. Such great horses as Seabiscuit, Citation, Affirmed and Cigar have won this race in the past. The eight entrants have diverse path to get here for their chance for the win. From a former maiden claimer to a multiple graded stakes winner who looks to put it all together at the classic distance to an ageless veteran looking to defend his crown, these eight entrants all have a different path to here. The supporting stakes is the Grade 2 Swaps for three year olds, where Coil looks to add another stakes win notch to his belt before moving on to bigger and better races back east. We will start with the Swaps.

The Grade 2 Swaps Stakes (named for the California-bred winner of the 1955 Kentucky Derby and the 1956 Hollywood Gold Cup) will have a heavy favorite in Coil (right). This son of Point Given bulled his way to a win the Grade 3 Affirmed last time out over this track. He continued his strong work pattern in the interim and there seems to be no reason (at least on paper) that he will go down in defeat. His pedigree dictates the additional distance will be no problem to him, with a Belmont winner as his sire and multiple graded stakes winner at 12f as the damsire. The horse who is the most interesting prospect to upset is Boxeur Des Rues. This Doug O'Neill trainee won a first level allowance race last time out on the turf in solid time. The last time he ran over the synthetic, he bolted turning for home in his first two turn race. It looks like he has turned a corner, but this surface and the class are still major questions.

Now we turn the attention to the big one, the Hollywood Gold Cup. Twirling Candy figures to be the favorite in the race off his win in the Californian, where he rated off a dawdling pace and a tough trip to sweep to victory. (below)

Now he will stretch out another furlong once again in attempt to add to his Grade 1 win total. The expected tepid pace means that his best strategy (but one not likely employed) is to go straight to the lead from his rail draw, settle in front and then burst away in the stretch. If these tactics are not employed, Rosario could end up in an untenable position pinned down on the rail behind horses.

Many can take advantage if Twirling has a similar meltdown like the Big 'Cap. Second choice figures to be First Dude. He won the Alysheba last time out on the Kentucky Oaks undercard. He has reinvented himself as an off-the-pace type after several near misses last year. This will be the slowest pace he has to sit off since the tactics change and one has to wonder whether he has the punch to come home fast enough. He ran well over the Polytrack in the past, but until they run over the track, who knows how he will react to track. Game On Dude won the Santa Anita Handicap earlier in the year, but has had two bad losses since the win. He figures to end up on the lead (unless Twirling guns it) without any other pace in the race but who knows how he will react being in front so early. This is also his first race over the synthetic, so who knows if he will take to it, even if he has trained well over it.

There are others in the field who will take some attention. The mare Miss Match comes in off a third in the Vanity, but has never faced these types at this distance. Setsuko finished 2nd behind Twirling in the Californian and seems to do his best running as the distances increase, but is that because he is a grinder without a big kick? The old veteran and defending champ Awesome Gem ran 2nd in the Cornhusker just two weeks ago and was going so well that the connections decided to audible and run here as well. Soul Candy will try to close from the back of the pack, as will invader Dark Cove. Dark Cove has won twice over the Poly at Keeneland, but his musical chair jockeys continues with his 7th straight new pilot, this time obtaining the services of top jock Rafael Bejarano.

This blog is going with Coil and Dark Cove. Coil is the class of the field in the Swaps. Dark Cove appears to have the best kick among the closers, and with the expected slow pace, it could turn into a 1/2 mile sprint for home.

Good luck this weekend folks!

Triple Bend - Shoemaker Mile Thoughts.

2011-07-01T14:19:00.000-07:00

Fourth of July weekend bring two grade 1 races to the track of the Lakes and Flowers. The Shoemaker Mile on the turf and the Triple Ben Handicap sprinting seven furlongs on the main track. These two stakes have a long and rich history, with both of them running their 60th+ iteration. These two stakes both each have solid fields that bring together an eclectic group of runners, from former Grade 1 winners to up-and-comers looking to make a mark. Let's start with the first one on the card, the Shoemaker Mile.

The Shoemaker Mile marks the first race since his trip to Dubai for the defending champ Victor's Cry. He won this race last year in a stunning upset at 21-1. (video of that win below) Half of his six lifetime wins, and his only two stakes wins, have come over the Hollywood Park turf course. He's won off a similar layoffs in the past. He has come back solidly on the work tab in preparation for this race. His jockey for last three start Victor Espinoza is in the irons, and it looks like he has a good chance to defend his title.

The main threat to his title defense figures to be Courageous Cat. This son of Storm Cat out of the multiple grade one winner Tranquility Lake (who won multiple stakes over the Hollywood Park turf course in her career) started his year off in a winning fashion in the Poker at Belmont Park on Belmont Stakes eve. He popped a solid dirt work in the interim. CC must be going well for his connections to ship across country on three weeks rest to annex this Grade 1, which did come up softer than expected due the injury of Ryehill Dreamer and the sale & transfer of Sidney's Candy. While he has never been over the course, he should have no problem adapting to it, especially with his mother's success over it. Others who could have an impact are likely pace-setter Liberian Freighter and perennially overbet Carcortado.

Three races later, eight hook up for the Triple Bend. The favorite and highweight is Amazombie (right), who was questionably disqualified from a win in the Grade 3 LA Handicap. He hopes to continue his strong efforts in the race with his solid workout since the last race. This would be a stamp on the strong series of races he has run since October of last year. Those looking to beat him are: Grade 1 winner M One Rifle, who was interfered in the LA but was never going to better than the third he originally finished (the DQ put him up to second); Grade 1 winner Smiling Tiger, who looks to bounce back after a so-so effort in the CD Handicap last out; and Color of Courage, who has run two monster races after a 19 month layoff and steps up for his first graded stakes try.

So there's a quick rundown of the two Grade 1's on this Fourth of July weekend at Hollywood Park. Can Victor's Cry defend his title? Will Courageous Cat do his mama proud? Can Amazombie get a Grade 1 win? Good luck everybody!

A California Spin on the Iowa Festival of Racing

2011-06-24T14:40:00.000-07:00

The Iowa Festival of Racing always brings together an solid bunch of horses to Prairie Meadows. This year's group includes several graded stakes winners and some up-and-comers looking to make a mark. The runners ship in from throughout the Midwest, with a nice SoCal contingent to spice things up. Let start out with the Friday night action, where three stakes take center stage.

The stakes action starts with two stakes for the ladies. First off is the Saylorville Stakes for female sprinters. The Cal-bred Tornado Betty began her career in Northern California before heading to the Midwest to ply her trade. She has come back to California for the occasional stakes foray. She was beat in the local prep for this race by two of her fellow competitors. After that is Iowa Distaff Stakes for the routers. Freedom Star comes in off a long layoff of 15 months, having last raced on the 2010 Sunland Derby undercard in a victory in the Harry Hensen Handicap. She has trained in typical Baffert bullets for this race and Rafael Bejarano will have the mount. Note that while most of preparations were on cushion, her last work was on the dirt at Santa Anita.

The last stake of the night is the Iowa Sprint Handicap. The favorite is the Baffert trained Ventana, who stayed at Churchill Downs after winning a Grade 3 on the Preakness undercard. He has worked steadily, though not the same typical flashiness of Baffert's other charges. Bejarano will have the mount for the race, and he looks tough. It is a little interesting the connections chose to run him here and not the Grade 1 Triple Bend at Hollywood Park in two weeks, especially with solid efforts on synthetic tracks. Winter Camp was a hard knocking optional claimer type out here until he was claimed by his current connections when he went to Sunland. He bats 50% at this distance, with 3 wins from 6 starts. His need-the-lead style figures to be severely compromised by the presence of Atta Boy Roy (right).

Saturday brings the second day of the festival with more SoCal connections with it. Prayer for Relief ships in for the Bob Baffert barn. He brings with him jockey Rafael Bejarano for his initial start on dirt. In his first start of 2010, he won a first level allowance race at Hollywood Park last month off a 6 month layoff. This will be his first attempt in a graded stakes. While his stalking style will work well in this race, there is a serious class question with him, as he would be thought of as one of Baffert's first or second tier 3yo charges. There is another SoCal connection, though it is not as obvious. Chosen Miracle is out of the mare Royally Chosen. SoCal fans will remember her rivalry in the 2002 La Canada series with multiple Grade 1 winner Affluent and for her multiple Cal-bred stakes wins. That rivalry is one of the earlier memories of this blog's memory as a horse fan and it was a big part of how big of a fan it is to this day. Chosen Miracle has been on this blog's stable mail since he was first named. He has won his only two starts in wire-to-wire fashion, one on a sloppy track at Hawthorne and another on the Poly at Arlington. While this is a big step up in class, he looks like he has a bright future. This blog will choose him to upset the favorite Astrology and the Baffert charge.

The final stakes of the festival is the Grade 3 Cornhusker Handicap. The old road warrior Awesome Gem comes into the race off a victory in the Lone Star Park Handicap last time out. He was much closer to the pace than normal, and that helped him to get the victory. The eight-year old worked his normal solid self since the win, and he'll keep plugging along. He is the morning line favorite in the race. The other SoCal shipper is Victory Pete. This son of Sky Mesa finished 4th in the 2009 rendition after a troubled trip. He has struggled at this distance in the past. This blog thought he had a big chance to win the Californian last out, but he faded badly to last in the final 1/16th. Blog favorite Stachys is the pick in the race off his good effort last time out.

So there are some thoughts on the horses with a California connection running in the Iowa Festival of Racing. Can Awesome Gem win two in a row for the first time since 2006? Will Chosen Miracle be the next breakout star? Good luck this weekend everybody!

Fostering Thoughts of a Flat Out Upset

2011-06-17T13:54:00.000-07:00

The older horses take the stage this weekend in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster Handicap at Churchill Downs going a mile and one-eighth. With no real leader in the older male handicap division, this is a chance for someone to seize command with a win. Eleven horses will step into the gate with the chance to get a Grade 1 win. These runners are evenly matched, with no dominate favorite among them. That is shown by the fact that the morning line favorite is at 7-2. The thoughts on this race will begin with the tepid morning line favorite Giant Oak.

#10 Giant Oak has been in the winner's circle once at Churchill Downs, but it was via the DQ in the Clark Handicap. Before that, he had a run of fourth-place finishes there, including a fourth in this race lat year. In his last start, he finished 5th in the Alysheba here 6 weeks ago, behind fellow entrants Equestrio and Regal Ransom, but ahead of Mission Impazible. He figures to make his late run from well off the pace, which could be a problem, since there is not a ton of pace. His outside post position is not an issue, and he has been training fantastically in the interim.

#6 Regal Ransom and #11 Mission Impazible figure to be the pacesetters in this race. Regal Ransom was nailed at the wire in the Alysheba by probable Hollywood Gold Cup favorite First Dude. As his passing gear is non-existent, his jockey Alan Garcia will attempt to get him to the front, then slow it down. On his flank figures to be Mission Impazible who does his best work when sitting just off the leader. He beat Giant Oak and Apart two back in the New Orleans Handicap. Other than his outside post, he figures to have a good chance. The dull effort last time out is some cause for concern though.

#2 Crown of Thorns (right) invades from the West Coast for trainer Richard Mandella with jockey Tyler Baze in tow. He won the Mervyn Leroy Handicap at Hollywood Park last out, wearing down Sidney's Candy in the final 1/16th of a mile. Mandella said that the six weeks between races was perfect timing for his charge, and he has been working steadily after his win. While he has only run on dirt once, it was off a layoff and probably a distance short then his best (at least on dirt). The way he trains over dirt and his pedigree suggests that he will be fine over it. He should have no problem with the mile and an eighth today, and figures to be sitting right behind Regal Ransom and Mission Impazible early on.

#3 Apart looks to follow the path of his stablemate last year and win the Foster after a win in the Schaefer on the Preakness undercard. Blame pulled the double for his connections, then went on to win the Breeders' Cup Classic last November. Apart won in workmanlike fashion in the Schaefer in a close finish. He was beaten multiple times over the winter by Mission Impazible and has split decisions with Giant Oak. He seems to have bounced back fine, with a couple of solid works at his Keeneland home base. This son of Flatter has all the tools to win, but the fact that he another change in rider is a bit disconcerting. His last rider, top jockey Garrett Gomez, decided to ride Blind Luck in the Vanity Handicap. While Julien Leparoux is no slouch, the fact that Gomez left

Yet none of those is the pick for the race. The pick is the co-longest shot at 30/1 on the morning line #1 Flat Out. This son of Flatter has been a blog favorite even before the existence of this blog. This blog thought that he had retired after getting hurt after the 2009 Arkansas Derby, but was pleasantly surprised when he returned to the races in December 2010. That winning effort was stymied by another layoff until Memorial Day this year, in which he ran second to the consistent old-timer Awesome Gem in the Lone Star Park Handicap, beating multiple graded stakes winners Game On Dude and Thiskyhasnolimit in the process. He popped a swift work in the interim, has a hot jockey in Corey Lanerie and figures to make his move from mid-pack. He is in light at 114 lbs., 4-9 lbs. less than any of the major contenders. While he is taking a major class hike today, and the pace set-up is not that great, at the price he figures to be, this blog is willing to take a shot.

Someone looks to take some measure of control in the handicap division with a victory in this race. A son of Flatter looks to make a mark, but not the one most think. Can Flat Out flat out cause an major upset and announce his arrival? We shall see. Good luck everybody!

Belmont Stakes Card Thoughts - There Shall Be Much Rejoicing

2011-06-11T06:44:00.000-07:00

Belmont Stakes day is here, and even though there is no chance for a triple crown alive, it figures to be a good day of racing. Both the Preakness and the Derby winner show up to the Belmont, which is a rarity. The undercard is solid, with multiple Eclipse award winning Gio Ponti going in the Manhattan, multiple Grade 1 winner Turbulent Descent in the Acorn and some tough races to handicap. Let's get to right to the stakes action, starting with the first stake on the docket.

Grade 1 TVG Acorn Stakes - 1 mile - 3yo fillies

The only question in this blog's mind is by how many lengths will #2 Turbulent Descent (right) win. She is the classiest horse in the field, she has been training great, she can adapt to any situation and she looks to flourish at this one-turn mile. The horse she will have to catch is #3 Savvy Supreme, who will be winging on the lead. While she is fast, she is stretching out two whole furlongs and is taking a big step up in class to graded stakes for the first time. The only other graded stakes winner in the field is #5 Victoria's Wildcat, who rode the closer-friendly track and insane fractions to victory in the Grade 3 Eight Belles S. at Churchill Downs on Oaks day. Honestly, Turbulent Descent should roll over this field, with Victoria's Wildcat being the best of the rest, several lengths back.

The Play:
Exacta 2/5; Trifecta 2/5/ALL

Grade 2 True North Handicap - 6 furlongs - 3yo & up

This blog decided that this race was not for him in any way, shape or form. This race will not be played at all other than a single of the favorite #3 Trappe Shot in the "lotto" Pick 6 ticket. Trappe Shot comes into this race off a win, defeating both D'Funnybone and Rule by Night (who are also in the race). He has two steady maintenance drills since the last race and he has a good chance to get his first graded stakes win of his career. If the budget allowed it, the entry would be used, and it is the the main danger. D'Funnybone comes in third off the layoff after running second to Trappe Shot last time after setting the pace almost the hole way. He figures to be doing the same once again today, with his entry-mate This One For Phil looking to take advantage if 'D' can't finish the job. He won his first race in 14 months last time out, has put in two solid works and looks to win his first graded stakes outright, after being put up via DQ in his only other stakes start.

The Play:
For multi-race purposes only, 1/1a & 3

Grade 2 Woody Stephens S - 7 Furlongs - 3yo

Another competitive race as three year old sprinters hook up going 7/8ths. Very tepid choice top choice is #5 Arch Traveler. This son of Sky Mesa bounced back on the winning trail after a poor effort in the Florida Derby at a distance that was not his optimal. Cutting back to a one-turn race last time out, he easily won an overnight stake handily. He has two smart works since the race, and will offer a little value to the favorite as the second choice. The other being used is the favorite #1 Travelin Man, who was against a speed bias in the Derby Trial and cuts back a furlong and #7 J J's Lucky Train, who comes back after an okay 3rd in the aforementioned Derby Trial, where he may have bounced after coming back in 3 weeks while shipping to Churchill.

The Play:
For the Pick 4: #1, #5, #7

Grade 1 Foxwoods Just A Game Handicap - 1 mile (turf) - 3yo & up fillies and mares

This is where this blog takes a stand with a 12/1 shot who is the co-2nd longest shot on the board in #8 Much Rejoicing. This daughter of Distorted Humor won her turf debut last time out at 6f here at Belmont in nice fashion. Being a daughter of BC F&M Turf winner Soaring Softly, it is not much of shock she taken to the surface. She has been best around one turn in her career. This is the first time she has ever strung together three races in her career, she is training well and looks primed to cause some tote damage at long odds. The favorite will probably be #2 Aviate, who this blog like in the CD Turf Mile last time out. Her connections won this race last year with Proviso. She has had two solid works since her win and looks tough, but how will she take to the one turn? #6 Fantasia finished third in the race Aviate comes out of last time. She finished fifth in this race last year, but her only win in the states was at this distance around one turn at Woodbine on a yielding course. If the chance of rain proves true, a less-than-firm course would do her well. #1 Gypsy's Warning is the only grade one winner in the field, but she ran a flat 7th behind Fantasia in the Jenny Wiley in April. If she wins, maybe it is sign to come for her connections, the same as Animal Kingdom.

The Play:
Large percentage of bankroll win bet on #8, single in P4

Grade 1 Woodford Reserve Manhattan Handicap - 1m 1/4 (turf) - 3yo and up

Multiple Eclipse Award winner #4 Gio Ponti looks to bounce back from another close loss in the Dubai World Cup and get his second victory in the race. He won in 2009, and finished 2nd last year. He seems to have bounced back better than last year from his overseas adventure, with four good works. #6 Viscount Nelson invades from over the pond for trainer Aidan O'Brien. He won just 8 days ago in Europe, but has a class advantage over the rest, finishing last year within a handful of lengths of Twice Over and Canford Cliffs, some of the top Euro horses. #7 Prince Will I Am was one of the few three year olds to be older in a graded stakes last year. He stretches back out after a fast-closing 5th in the Woodford Reserve on the Churchill Downs undercard. Many will use him, but this blog will not because of budget constraints.

The play:
Pick 4 purposes: #4 & #6

Grade 1 Belmont Stakes - 1m & 1/2 - 3yo

The first question to figure out is whether or not #12 Shackleford can last the twelve furlongs under these conditions. While this blog will hedge and say yes, he probably cannot based on his pedigree. #1 Master of Hounds is the wiseguy horse, and has been bet down in the early wagering. #9 Animal Kingdom ran a fast-closing second to Shackleford in the Preakness after winning the Derby. He should have no problem with the distance based on his long-winded pedigree. He is another we shall use on top as more of a hedge than a pick. #2 Stay Thirsty is the pick to inherit the lead if/when Shackleford gives up the lead. All of these four will be used on top of #9 Nehro in the exacta, as he fits the pattern of other previous 2nd-place finishers in the Derby who head directly to the Belmont.

The Play:
Exacta #1, #2, #9, #12 / #6

Pick 4 ticket starting with the Woody Stephens: 1,5,7 / 8 / 4,6 / 1,2,9,12
Good luck everybody!

Churchill to Belmont, No Stop At Pimlico

2011-06-08T12:29:00.000-07:00

Nehro, Master of Hounds, Santiva, Stay Thirsty, Brilliant Speed. These five horses will attempt to win the Belmont Stakes with their last race being the Kentucky Derby. They finished anywhere from 2nd to 12th in the Derby. These five face a tough task, with both the Derby and Preakness winner in the fold, along with hard-trying Mucho Macho Man. So what are their chances to overturn the decision against Animal Kingdom? One way to determine that is to look back on previous horses who have attempted to the same, specifically in the past 20 years.

Below is a chart that list every horse who ran in the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont Stakes without a race in between in the last 20 years.

As the chart shows, the strategy of going directly from the Derby to the Belmont has had some success in the past twenty years. 39 runners have done, with 14 horses hitting the board in the Belmont. None of the five "doing the double" can beat the improvement of Commendable in 2000, who went from a 17th in the Derby to the winner's circle in the Belmont. The five horses in this year match the most in the last 21 years. It is interesting to note that in the 3 most recent years that more than four horses came directly from the Derby (2000, 2006, 2008), both the winner and the runner-up were among that group. That is something to note to those who like any of those horses.

The two Derby finishing positions most often to go on directly to the Belmont in the last twenty years are 2nd and 4th, each with six runners. (scroll down below the chart to see the table listing the total for each finishing position) If Nehro does start on Saturday, he would be the 7th in the past 21 years, meaning 33% of the time the place horse in the Derby has skipped the Preakness in favor of the Belmont. In a tie for the 3rd most often with 5 runners is the 7th place spot, which is where Brilliant Speed finished. Stay Thirsty marks the first time in at least 21 years that the 12th place finisher has gone directly to the Belmont.

So there is some food for thought about the Belmont Stakes this Saturday when it comes to those "doing the double". Take this information as nothing more than a tool to help bring home stacks of cash, office pool pride or simple bragging rights among the family. Good luck this weekend!

Memorial Day Racing Thoughts

2011-05-30T09:53:00.000-07:00

Memorial Day is here, and there is great stakes action around the country. This is my favorite racing day of the year. Not Derby Day, not Breeders' Cup Saturday, not any day except the last Monday in May. The turf racing is always solid on this day, the weather always seems to cooperate and everyone seems to be a good mood on this day of remembrance. Due to the fact that I'm posting this on Memorial Day itself, I will go bullet point style to get through some of the stakes action.

Hollywood Park has two stakes today, the G3 LA Handicap and the G1 Gamely Stakes. In the LA, Cost of Freedom will once again attempt to go gate-to-wire for the John Sadler barn. He will look to turn the tables on M One Rifle, who beat him last time out. Amazombie looks to continue his hot streak, but can he keep the win streak going, especially with M1 now third off the layoff? Should be a solid race.

A half hour later, older females go 1m & 1/8th on the turf in the G1 Gamely. The top 4 finishers from the Santa Barbara Handicap at Santa Anita have a return engagement against one another. Malibu Pier defeated Cozi Rosie, Restless Soul and Turning Top last time. The four of the them will be taking on new shooter Dubawi Heights. This daughter of Dubawi has climbed the ladder all the way to the top with her win in the Grade 3 Wilshire Handicap. The extra distance would appear to be no problem for her, and she is this blog's pick for the race.

Now we head to Lone Star Park, where two blog favorites will be making their 2011 debuts. Wasted Tears attempts to win the Grade 3 Ouija Board Distaff Stakes for the third year in a row. Flat Out steps up into graded stakes company in the Grade 3 Lone Star Park Handicap. He is stepping into the deep end of the pool with this race, facing off against grade 1 winners Awesome Gem and Game On Dude along with the local prep winner Thiskyhasnolimit. While Wasted Tears will be the heavy favorite, Flat Out will be a huge longshot. This blog will be cheering hard for both to make successful 2011 debuts.

Also hoping that Rodman will hit the board at a price in the Met Mile but ultimately finish behind Haynesfield or Tizway at the wire.

Good luck this weekend folks!

Preakness Card Stakes Thoughts

2011-05-21T00:29:00.000-07:00

The middle jewel of the Triple Crown is upon us. Animal Kingdom carries the hopes of a nation that he can end the drought that has stricken us since Affirmed in 1978 of a Triple crown winner. The undercard has some solid races with some past Grade 1 winners, some hopeful up-and-comers and good betting opportunities. Ranging from a pair of 6 furlong sprints all the way to the mile and three-sixteenths of the Preakness, this figures to be a good day of racing. Let's start with the race for the fillies and mares going a mile and one-sixteenth.

The Alliare Dupont Distaff marks the return to graded stakes company for multiple grade one winner Life At Ten. After a so-so second in her 2011 debut going one turn at Gulfstream. Returning to two-turns, she towers over this field on class. The only concern is that she may have lost something after that debacle in the Breeders' Cup and maybe Father Time has caught up with her a bit. Her main danger is Payton D'Oro. Her biggest win was 2009 Black-Eyed Susan right her at this track. She ran a so-so third in her only start this year, and that was her first start in the year. She's worked well for trainer Larry Jones, but she also may have lost a step. Decelerator figures to be winging on the front end.

Two races later brings together 3yo sprinters in the Chick Lang Stakes going 6 furlongs. This is the second leg of the guaranteed $250k Early Pick 4. (This blog thinks that #8 Easy Ashley is a single in the first leg of the Pick 4). This is a tough race as contention runs deep. Ghost Is Clear just quit last time, for some reason, but has come back to work well, and has several sprint races which would be competitive. Chipshot comes in third off the layoff with a bullet work in tow. Escort just quit on the Poly last time, has worked well since, and has power couple Pletcher/Velazquez behind him. Venegeful Wildcat has two narrow losses this year against similar. Road Ready will be coming out of the clouds, but can he get up in time?

Next up is the James W Murphy for three year olds on the lawn going a mile. This looks like a three horse race between: Lil Bit O'Fun, who gets some class relief after meeting the best turf 3yos in the country last out; Humble and Hungry gets back on turf in his second start of the year and acquires the services of Garrett Gomez; and Joes Blazing Aaron, who won the Grade 3 Palm Beach two back in gate-to-wire fashion. These three tower over the rest of the field.

The last race of the early Pick 4 is Grade 3 Maryland Sprint. The heavy favorite figures to be the SoCal based Ventana. He has banged heads with some of the best sprinters on the west coast, but always seems to come out on the short end. This blog believes that he is slightly better at a distance a half-furlong longer than today's distance, which makes him very vulnerable. Nathan's H Q is a true speedball, but he is inside speed, and he looks that he will have the lead turning for home. If he can shake free, he is a danger to lead gate-to-wire. China comes back in 17 days after a solid second behind a gunner in the oft-injured but very talented Irrefutable. He threw a swift workout in the interim and could be sitting on a huge effort. He'll be sitting just off the pace.

The start of the guaranteed $1 million dollar late Pick 4 starts with the Grade 3 Galorette Handicap. The highweight and favorite is Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf winner Shared Account. This is her first race since her huge upset win in the BC, and she has been training steadily for her trainer Graham Motion. She ran 4th in this race last year off a similar layoff. This looks like a good time to take a stand against her at short odds, and the horse to take advantage is No Explaining. She won last out in solid turf race at Keeneland in good time. She ships down for her trainer Roger Attfield from her Woodbine home base, which is saying something since Woodbine offers a race at a similar distance two weeks from now for three times the purse. She retains top jock John Velazquez in the irons, who will keep her mid-pack, looking to get a jump on the favorite. She will enjoy any give in the ground as well. The 10 pound difference in weight in favor of No Explaining can't hurt either.

The William Donald Schaefer and the Dixie have a horse cross-entered in Eighttofasttocatch. If he runs in the Schaefer, as is the most likely scenario, he rates a solid chance, but he must defeat a much deeper, but not necessarily stronger, field. Colizeo (looking to bounce back after an no excuse third in the Grade 3 Skip Away), Pleasant Prince (first race since getting crushed in the BC Classic and his second race against older), Icabad Crane (has a win over the track and ran third in the Preakness three years ago) and Apart (Trying to follow in former barnmate Blame's footsteps, though he has nowhere near the killer instinct of the champion older male).

If “Eight” does go in the Dixie, his main obstacle is Paddy O'Prado. This multiple graded stakes winner was the king of the three year-olds on turf, winning 4 stakes an finishing 2nd against older in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic before getting beaten by 5 ½ in the BC Classic. He makes his 2011 debut in the Dixie, and brings a solid series of works into the race. This maybe the best time to beat him, as this race is clearly a means to an end for bigger and better things later on in the year. He is carrying the same amount of weight as the others, which gives him a clear advantage over the field. Hopefully “Eight” stays in this race, as he looks to be one with a chance to upset the heavy favorite at a big price.

This leaves the big one, the Preakness. Now this blog admits that the Kentucky Derby was an unmitigated disaster, but the struggle to find a pick, let alone a key in the exotics, portended doom from the beginning. After regrouping, seeing what went wrong and admitting that the selections have been very hit or miss with this lot this year, a renewed enthusiasm for the race came on. Now, the pick for today is not to win, but to place. That is because this horse s probably not good enough to win, but under the right circumstances he can light up the tote at a big number. That horse is Norman Asbjornson. He ran 4th in the Wood after running 2nd in the Gotham. His sire won this race back in 1998, and he has solid local connections. He's had two stamina building workouts in the interim and has made a solid appearance in the mornings. He's slowly improved with every race, with this being his third off the layoff. If his jockey can time the move just right, maybe he grind his way to second.

So the Preakness is upon us. Can Animal Kingdom keep his Triple Crown hopes alive? Will Someone end them instead? Can Shared Account and Paddy O'Prado return off the layoff to their previous form? We shall see. Good luck everybody!

The Best Ride Last Weekend Almost No One Saw

2011-05-11T22:54:00.000-07:00

Last weekend, while the eyes of the horse racing nation were on Churchill Downs, Hollywood Park ran the Grade 2 Mervyn Leroy Handicap. The race went off at the same time as the Churchill Distaff Turf Mile Stakes on the Kentucky Derby undercard, so very few saw this race. This four horse race featured multiple graded stakes winner Sidney's Candy. With only four horses in the field, Sidney figured to get an easy lead under rider Alonso Quinonez and go gate-to-wire. But that did not happen. Why?

Many jockeys these days are afraid of going after the lone speed in a race, trying to avoid a speed duel. We even witnessed this in the Kentucky Derby, where all the speed pulled back, allowing Shackleford to get an easy lead and hang on for 4th. They fear that trying to apply some pressure to the speed horse will cause their mount to go too fast and lose the race. But it is that pressure that is key to preventing a gate-to-wire winner. Tyler Baze provides a textbook definition to why this is true on his ride of Crown of Thorns in the Mervyn Leroy.

After Sidney's Candy gets an easy first quarter in 24:05, it looks like this will be another merry-go-round race where they don't catch him. Crown of Thorns is sitting a little more than a length and a half off of him, not applying any real pressure. But as they reach the 6 furlong pole, Tyler makes the tactical decision in moving Crown of Thorns onto Sidney's flank, sitting just a length off.

This causes Sidney to go through the second quarter in a much quicker 23:17. Tyler keeps Crown of Thorns right off of Sidney's Candy through that acceleration for that quarter mile, preventing Sidney from getting separation. Like many speed horses, those easy middle fractions are key to going gate-to-wire. Tyler knows this, and is still on Sidney's flank with a 1/2 mile to go.

By the time they hit the stretch, Sidney does not have that needed separation on his main foe. Tyler is able to grind his way past on Crown of Thorns to an eventual length and a half victory. This tactical race ride is the key to this victory. This blog applauds Tyler Baze for the savvy ride, and hope that his comeback from the DL is filled with many more stakes wins.

Here's the full replay of the race:

This race is a template in showing how applying pressure, but not engaging in a speed duel, is key to undoing the chances of a gate-to-wire threat on paper. In-race tactics are what separate the mediocre riders from those who you can have faith in putting your last two dollars on. Good luck on your future wagers.

Kentucky Derby Card Selections - Looking For a Longshot

2011-05-06T21:27:00.000-07:00

Biggest day of year when it comes to horse racing is upon us, the first Saturday in May, Kentucky Derby Day. This blog will be leaving from home early Saturday morning in order to get to Hollywood Park early enough to play the early races on the Churchill card. Here are some plays and thoughts for the card, including who this blog likes in the Kentucky Derby. Let's start with the second race on the card, a first level allowance going a mile and one-sixteenth on the main track (post time 11:00 AM ET). The horse to watch here is Bind. This son of Flatter comes from the Al Stall Jr. barn. He won his debut stylishly, then came home second after pulling his entire race. He runs against older the first time tomorrow, with his man danger coming from Wordly, a former fringe Derby trial runner who finished second in a couple of grade stakes. Many have touted Bind as "The Next Big Thing", and today's race will go a long way in determining whether he is or not.

Skipping ahead to the 6th race, which begins the stakes action with the Twin Spires Turf Sprint. The majority of the money figures to be spread around among four horses, each with different credentials. Chamberlain Bridge won the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint here last year, and is a neck away from being 5 for 5 on this course; Regally Ready, who won three straight races down the hill out here in Santa Anita and owns a win over this course; Bridgetown won the BC Juvenile Turf back in 2009, won his last two races, and has been competitive against some of these; and Custom for Carlos, who is the pick. His only turf start, he had a less then ideal trip while breaking from a wide post. C4C has speed but can rate just off and should fall into a good trip.

Moving on to the 5th stakes on the card, the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic. This race was dramatically affected when Little Mike scratched out of the race Friday morning due to a fever. This has left Get Stormy with a strong chance to go gate to wire. He has win at the distance and one over the course, he had a solid work after his win in the Maker's Mark Mile last time out and the race set-up is extremely favorable to his chances, as he figures to be on or just off the lead. Value seekers could do worse than land on Rahystrada. This son of Rahy ran a good second last out, has won at the distance, and is no stranger to winning at long odds over this course, winning the 2009 River City Handicap at 56-1.

Now the big one, the Kentucky Derby. This blog makes a different between the pick for the Derby to win and the key to the exotics. The pick to win is used only on top, while the key is the horse most likely to hit the board, and is used in all three on the board spots. The pick to win is Derby Kitten. This son of Kitten's Joy out of the Menifee mare Blush has a pedigree that many who follow this blog is familiar with, and that is part of the reason he is the choice. He is blog favorite William's Kitten full brother. DK won his way into the Derby after winning the Lexington Stakes last time out. His only dirt try was awful, but it was on a track that favored those on or near the lead, and his brother WK handled the dirt just fine, including a second in the Kentucky Jockey Club to last year's Derby winner Super Saver. Now Derby Kitten will be a huge longshot, but he will relish the mile and a quarter, and this blog thinks he can avenge his brother's inability to make it here last year with a major upset.

The key to the exotics is Stay Thirsty. He takes the blinkers off after a disastrous effort in the Florida Derby. He had previously won the Gotham Stakes, defeating Wood Memorial winner Toby's Corner in the process. He has worked well without the blinkers since the Florida Derby, and will be a good price on the board. The main reason that Stay Thirsty is the key to this blog's exotics is his potential trip in the race. With three speed horses to the outside, and closers to his inside and outside the speed, Stay Thirsty looks to have the chance to set-up a perfect position quickly, before the rest of the field drops over from the outside. This will give him ever chance to run well and give his backers their money's worth.

So today is the big day, and big stakes are abound. Will the prices be enormous> Can Derby Kitten do what 'William' could not? Can the winner be the one to end the Triple Crown drought? We shall see, Good luck everybody!

Why A Bad Morning Line Hurts Everyone

2011-05-02T09:15:00.000-07:00

Morning lines are a part of every wagering race in the U.S. no matter whether it is a Grade 1 at Saratoga or a $4kN2L at Beulah Park. The maker of the morning line has an arduous task in trying to figure out how the public will interpret all the possible information in front of them, including who has what information, and whether that information will lead to a lot of money being bet on the horse. It is not an enviable task, but someone has to do it. This task will always leave someone unhappy but it is a necessary part of racing. The line exists to help handicappers, especially a newbie to the sport, see who presumably will have a larger chance to win a particular race. So when a morning line maker does a poor job in making a morning line, it has a negative effect on the bettor no matter whether it's the $2 win bettor or the $3000/ticket Pick 6 player.

There are two main ways a morning line can be bad. One is when a horse is listed at odds that ends up being way off compared to its actual post time odds (though it is normally only complained about when it is lower than the listed morning line odds). This can happen through the morning line maker doing a poor job reading the information; the connections of the horse betting more than expected on him; or the horse is getting a lot of buzz at the track, but what shows up on paper is not very enticing. The happens from time to time, and while annoying, can be forgiven as one of the vagaries of the game.

The other way a morning line can be bad, and the one that this post is mostly about, is when a morning line equals a percentage that is just too high to be reasonable. This is what I'm calling an "overvalued" morning line. If any of you have any interaction with this blog's writer through social media, you will know that this a hot-button issue with me. A bad morning line bothers me more than it should - but then why all the ranting about it? First, let this blog explain what a morning line should equal. The morning line should equal 100% + the takeout on the win bet. Since the morning line uses whole, easy to understand numbers, yet odds can be counted down to a tenth, it is acceptable to have the line fall within a range. That range is 116 percent to 125 percent, depending on what the track's takeout is on that wager. When a morning line does not fall into that range, it is considered a bad line. There are occasions when that happens and people give it a pass, such as the Kentucky Derby, where the unique circumstances of the race make it impossible to craft a line to a normal percentage. But even that has it limitations on how high it can be before it becomes objectionable. When the morning line of an everyday race is above 125%, it is a sign that the morning line maker struggled with the field. But when every race on the card has a line that is significantly over 125%, and this occurs on a daily basis, that is a sign of a morning line maker who is just not doing his job correctly. There are examples at major tracks across the nation, from the San Gabriel Mountains to the Bluegrass all the way to the Atlantic Ocean.

Why all this fuss over an "overvalued" morning line? Well, there are a few main reasons. First, is that it decreases value for the handicapper. How? When it comes to the multi-race exotics all but the most disciplined of players will look at the morning line when considering whom to add in the later legs of those bets. Horse players are always looking to add value in the form of longer odds horses when playing. So if two horses have the same odds, the more likely they will be used in an equal manner. However, if those horses who have the same odds do not have an equal chance (or very close to it), and one should be at higher post-time odds, that mistake in the line will cost the bettor both in the investment and the payout. This issue will especially affect newbies bettors, who depend on the morning line more than the seasoned horse players to help them make decisions on who to use and who not to use. So when a bad line exists on a daily basis at a meet, it erodes value on every possible bet, costing the bettor several times during the meet.

Another reason a consistently overvalued morning line is worthy of an uproar is that it subconsciously destroys the trust between the bettor and the track. How so? Let's use this example: If a company claimed that a product would deliver a specific range of performances, but if the product's performance consistently failed to fall into the range, the consumer would have less faith in the product, and would be less likely to consider using the product and what it is associated with - So if the morning line is consistently incorrect, the betting public will have less faith in it. If the bettor has less faith in it, they are unlikely to use the line and play the racing associated with it. The bettor's decision not to play the track is their way of exercising their free market ability against an unfavorable situation. The lack of trust causes the serious bettor to go elsewhere with their wagering dollars.

The newbie bettor is affected differently by a consistently overvalued morning line when it comes to the issue of trust. Since the track puts out a morning line with the specific intent of helping the bettor, the line's relative accuracy is imperative. With the newbie's dependence on the line, a track would be remiss if it did not provide a competent morning line. If the track is endorsing a consistently overvalued morning line, it is doing a disservice to the bettors by willingly misleading them. If a newbie bettor feels taken advantage of by the track, their discretionary money will be taken to another track or even towards a different sport entirely.

So there's my 'ten cents' on why a overvalued morning line is a bad thing for any level of bettor, whether the $2 type or the $20,000 type. Agree? Disagree? Comment below and help further the discussion. Maybe with enough buzz about it, overvalued morning lines can become a thing of the past.

Santa Anita Meet End Awards

2011-04-20T11:53:00.000-07:00

The 2010-2011 Santa Anita Winter-Spring meet is over, and it provided many highs and lows. From the scintillating performances on opening day to the painful lows of the the horses who did not survive the meet, this meet had a wide range of emotions. The efforts of some of the horses who ran deserve special acclaim. This post will celebrate a wide array of achievements, including which horse earned the Horse of The Meet honors according to this blog.

First up is the award for best claimer of the meet. The winner is Separate Forest (right). She climbed the ladder all the way from $25KN2L on the main track to a win in the Grade 3 Las Cienegas Handicap on Big Cap day over the heavily favored Unzip Me. This daughter of Forestry was claimed from the Richard Mandella barn by Doug O'Neill in her $25kN2L victory, and he quickly sent her up the ladder. The win in the Las Cienegas came only one week after she won an allowance race. She won four of her 6 starts, with her losses being in her first race of the meet in the Mandella barn in an allowance race and her 4th race, where she could not overcome a troubled trip. Congratulations to the connections who claimed her, making a shrewd decision.

The award for biggest disappointment is next, and it goes to the injury of Premier Pegasus on the Thursday before the Santa Anita Derby. This blog believed that he had a huge chance to be the one not only to break the 22 year long drought of no Santa Anita Derby winner going on to win the Kentucky Derby, but to end the 33 year end drought of not having a triple crown winner. His run in the San Felipe was devastating, and if he had won the Santa Anita Derby, he would be your current Kentucky Derby favorite. The Myung Kwon Cho barn suffered double the heartbreak this meet, as both PrePeg and Riveting Reason were knocked off the Derby trail with injuries. Hopefully they will come back from their maladies with the same energy and talent.

Next up is most impressive performance of the meet. There were several choices to choose from, with many of them coming in the maiden special weight ranks. The nominees are:
The Factor - Maiden special weight
Misremembered - Santana Mile
Maclean's Music - Maiden special weight win
Premier Pegasus - San Felipe Stakes
Runflatout - Maiden special weight

The winner is...

This son of Distorted Humor destroyed this group of maidens stylishly in his debut. He is now at Churchill Downs, along with the rest of the Steve Asmussen barn. Who knows what the future has in store for him. Maybe a start in the Derby Trial?

The next award is for most talked about race of the meet. That award goes to the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap. The drama-filled inquiry that followed stretched at least 13 minutes. In the end, there was no change, as Game On Dude was left up as the winner over Setsuko, with Quindici Man finishing third. In all the hubbub after the race that existed in social media after the decision, it is necessary to point out that almost all who wanted to disqualify Game On Dude wanted to place him fifth behind Twirling Candy, yet the only steward who voted to disqualify Game On Dude wanted to place him only as far back as second, behind Setsuko. This inquiry will live in the lore of this race, going along side the other much-talked about inquiries, the disqualification of The Wicked North in 1994 and the disqualification of Perrault in 1982.

The final award is for horse of the meet. The nominees are:
Cambina
Game On Dude
Malibu Pier
Midnight Interlude
Smiling Tiger

and the winner is...

CAMBINA!

This European import went three for four for the meet, with her only defeat being in her first start, which was heavily compromised by a loose horse who dropped the jockey at the start. The tiny filly went on to sweep the remaining three year old filly turf stakes, winning the Grade 3 La Habra, the China Doll and the Grade 2 Providencia Stakes. In a These races ranged from six & one-half furlong down the hill all the way to a mile and one-eighth. She won them all rolling from the back of the pack in dramatic style under jockey Garrett Gomez. This Jeff Bonde trainee (who also trains Smiling Tiger) could be pointed to races like the Del Mar Oaks later in the year. Maybe she can even become like another tiny filly who won the Providencia Stakes on her way to greater things, Megahertz.

So the books are closed on the Santa Anita meet, with some good performances, some iffy thoughts and plenty of fodder for people to talk about. Good luck to everybody as the scene shifts across town to the track of the lakes and flowers, Hollywood Park.

Midnight Interlude Assumes His Role As The Drought Breaker

2011-04-13T23:15:00.000-07:00

The Santa Anita Derby has been run, and Bob Baffert won it. If you would have told that to someone at the beginning of the meet, no one would have batted an eyelash at the statement. But if you had told that someone that he would win with a late-developing horse who didn't make his first start until Sunshine Millions Day, you would have been scoffed at as a fool. Furthermore, if you had told that someone that Victor Espinoza, the same Victor Espinoza who Baffert wanted hung from the grandstand after last year's Santa Anita Derby, you would be taken away to the insane asylum for such crazy talk. But yet that is exactly what happened, as the late-developing son of War Chant Midnight Interlude (right) took over in the final strides to win the Grade 1 $1,000,000 Santa Anita Derby.

After the scratches of both blog favorite Premier Pegasus and the other Baffert entrant Jaycito, the race was a wide open affair. Favoritism fell to El Camino Real Derby winner Silver Medallion, who went off at 5-2. He and Robert B Lewis winner Anthony's Cross were still alive for the Preakness 5.5, which would pay $5 million to the owner of any horse who could pull off a trio of wins. Silver Medallion had not run since the El Camino Real, had a change of ownership since the win, but was working well in the interim. Anthony's Cross had not run since the Lewis S., but had thrown bullets in numerous works. He went off as the 3rd choice at 3.30-1. The other buzz horse in the race was Mr. Commons, who had clockers agog with his works over at Hollywood Park after his first-level allowance race in late February. He would go off as the second choice in the race at 3-1.

Comma To The Top went right to the lead, with Silver Medallion sitting a length off. Midnight Interlude sat two lengths off the pace, with another length to Mr. Commons, and one more to Anthony's Cross after the first quarter. Down the backstretch Comma maintained control, with everyone staying about the same distance back from him through moderate middle fractions. As they turned for home, Comma maintained control, with Mr. Commons taking up the chase from Silver Medallion, with Midnight Interlude continuing on on the outside and Anthony's Cross gaining ground. At the wire, Midnight Interlude went by a tiring Mr. Commons and Silver Medallion to finally gun down Comma To The Top, who put in a game effort in defeat. Anthony's Cross finished a disappointing fifth. Bench Points did not lift a hoof finishing 7th.

Now Midnight Interlude must carry around the mantle of The Drought Breaker with him as he goes on to Kentucky Derby the first Saturday in May. He hopes to break the 22 year long drought that has existed since Sunday Silence puled the double back in 1989. He does have some things going for him. His jockey-trainer combo previously won the 2002 Derby with War Emblem. Bob and Victor had a falling out soon after that race, and the relationship hit a low point during last year's Santa Anita Derby, when Victor's mount almost put Bob's Lookin at Lucky over the rail, with Victor coming to blows with Lucky's jockey Garret Gomez. But with many other local jocks already engaged for the race, and Baffert's main jockey Martin Garcia already on derby favorite The Factor (and further engaged to ride Misremembered in the Oaklawn Handicap the same day), Victor had this mount fall into his lap. Now they are riding on a high towards the Twin Spires.

But M.I. has several things working against him, mainly one drought that extends all the way back to 1882. That 129 year gap is the time that has past since a horse won the Derby without a start at two. But if any man can overcome such a curse it is his multiple Derby winning trainer. Hr figured out how to win on synthetics. He figured out how to won stakes across the nation. He figured out how to win Grade 1's with a horse who had only race in 11 months. Surely he can figure a way to break this curse. Another problem is that M.I. pedigree is not the greatest for the 1m & 1/4. His sire War Chant lost the Santa Anita Derby, and was a miler. The damside does provide some additional hope he could get the distance, it does not exactly scream dirt. This blog's honest opinion is that while he is hopeful the drought will end, he doubts that it will happen.

The results of the race had other effects on the Derby situation as well. Comma To The Top's huge effort has caused his trainer Peter Miller to have second thoughts about them not pointing the horse towards the Derby, as they stated they previously would. Neither Silver Medallion, Anthony's Cross nor Mr. Commons likely earned enough money to make the Derby gate, with Silver Medallion having the most cumulative earnings among the three with a little more than $184k. If Comma To The Top does not go, as this blog hopes he does due to his slim chances and his draining effort in the race, the Santa Anita Derby will most likely have only one representative in Midnight Interlude.

So once again Baffert wins the big race of the meet, but this time under some less than Baffert-like circumstances. Midnight Interlude will carry the flag for southern California, and with it the hopes that the drought will finally be broken. Can he do it? We shall see come the first Saturday in May.

Drought Report - Time to Find Out Who Will Try To Be The Drought Breaker

2011-04-09T09:00:00.000-07:00

Santa Anita Derby Day is here, and the time to find out who will be the one to try to end the 22 year-long drought is upon us. With the news that Santa Anita Derby favorite, blog favorite and this blog's choice to break the drought Premier Pegasus off the trail with a hairline fracture, and that Jaycito is also out of the race with a foot issue, the race is wide open for someone to take advantage and punch their ticket to the Kentucky Derby. The three horses who look the likeliest to take advantage of the top two's absence are Silver Medallion, Anthony's Cross and Mr. Commons. Let's break down these three.

Silver Medallion won the El Camino Real Derby last time out in a driving finish, closing off a suspect pace. He has worked well in the interim since the race, and his pedigree does not suggest any problem with the distance. He picks up Garrett Gomez to ride him in the race. While he has never ran on the dirt, he has trained well over the main track. He should sit a stalking trip off of Comma To The Top and Midnight Interlude, and look to take over turning for home. He will vie for favoritism, and he will be this blog's selection for the race. This blog thought he would finish a clear second behind PrePeg going in, and with his defection, this blog will move him up to the top spot. He needs a 1-2 finish to assure himself a spot in the gate on May 7th.

Anthony's Cross (right) won the Robert B Lewis Stakes last out in game fashion over Riveting Reason. He has improved each and every start, and the addition of blinkers help kept him focus on his task. His swift works in the interim (not the norm for his trainer Eoin Harty) and the services of Joel Rosario add to his appeal. He has won at the distance, so today's 1m & 1/8 should not be a problem. He figures to be sitting even with Silver Medallion in a stalking position. This blog respects his form, but thinks he might be just a cut below. His inability to put away Riveting Reason, who is a solid horse but not the gamest animal, is a major red flag. He will be tested today. He needs a 1-2-3 finish to assure himself of a spot in the gate on May 7th.

The third contender is Mr. Commons. This son of Artie Schiller built on his stylish maiden win on the grass in an allowance race last time on the dirt. He won a one mile race, grinding his way to victory. He has worked smartly since the race, popping bullet after bullet, which is not his trainer's style. The private clockers in southern California raved about his 7 furlong work on March 28th, oohing and aahing over its quality. His pedigree does not scream dirt, but he handled it fine. He figures to lay mid-pack in the race and make a run in the stretch. His trainer John Shireffs knows his way around the Derby picture, winning it with Giacomo in 2005. This blog thinks that while the hype is understandable, he may struggle against this type. The allowance field he beat in that win was not the strongest, as several have struggled in stakes competition, and the third place finisher Chiloquin broke his maiden for a tag. He would need to win the race to get into the gate come the first Saturday in May.

Others who have faint Derby aspirations are Bench Points, who ran a distant third in the San Felipe Stakes behind PrePeg and Jaycito, snapping his undefeated streak. He would need to run 1-2 to get in the Derby. Indian Winter, who looks to bounce back after a questionable effort in the Turf Paradise Derby. He would need to win to get in.

This Santa Anita Derby has lost some luster due to the top two abdicating, but this leaves open a new threat to gain the throne. Who will step up and earn the precious graded stakes earnings? Who will step up and take the mantle of Drought Breaker and place it upon themselves to break the drought? Can that horse break the drought? We shall see? Good luck everybody!

Santa Anita Derby Undercard Stakes Thoughts

2011-04-07T21:57:00.000-07:00

Santa Anita Day brings together a solid card of action in support of the big race. Three graded stakes will help enhance the big day. First, older female sprinters will go down the hill in the Las Cienegas Handicap. Then older males go a mile on the grass in the Grade 2 Arcadia Stakes. Then three year old filles will go a mile and an eighth on the grass in the Grade 2 Providencia Stakes. Throw in the appearance of First Dude in allowance race (finally!) and this card lends good support to a big day. Let's start with the Las Cienegas Handicap.

This Grade 3 race down the hillside turf course marks the 2011 return of blog favorite Tanda, who has not raced since her trouble-filled third in the 2010 Grade 1 Acorn Stakes. She is two-for-three down the hill, with her only loss coming when she finished second to Rose Catherine, who would go on to be the second betting choice in the 2010 Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint. Tanda struggled to shake a foot bruise this winter, which cause her to miss the Grade 1's La Brea Stakes and Santa Monica Stakes earlier in the meet. She is over the issue, and has been working regularly towards this race. She may not be fully cranked, as this could be a prep race for something down the road, such as the Grade 1 Humana Distaff on the Kentucky Derby undercard. But the favorite will be Unzip Me. This daughter of City Zip owns this turf course, with 5 wins in 6 races, with her only lose the being her first race down the hill. She has been undefeated against females in her last 11 starts, with her only two losses being against males. She already won two stakes down the hill this meet. Her success causes her to tote 127 lbs. today, 8 more than Tanda and 10-12 more than the rest of her competitors. She figures to be right upfront, and will try to continue her winning ways. These two tower over the field, and figure to dominate the wagering.

The next stake is Grade 2 Arcadia. Caracortado (right) will be the favorite to once again hold off Jeranimo, who he has bested twice this meet. "Scarface" is coming off a narrow defeat in the G1 Kilroe Mile last out. He seems to have maintained his fitness. He figures to rally from off the pace. Jeranimo will try once again to turn the tables on him. He worked well in the interim, and reunites with top jock Rafael Bejarano (who was on the winner in the Kilroe). Both will have to catch Liberian Freighter, who figures to get an easy lead. He threw in a clunker last time against the top two, but maybe was a little too fresh off the 3 month layoff. He comes back with three steady works, and should be able to control the tempo on the front end. He is a dangerous threat to wire this field.

The last undercard stake is the Grade 2 Providencia Stakes. These three year old fillies go a mile an one-eighth, a distance no one in the field has gone. Five of the 9 entrants begin their career across the pond in Europe. The favorite will be Cambina. This diminutive filly with the powerful kick won the last two stakes for this group, the Grade 3 La Habra and the China Doll Stakes. She blasts from the back of the pack, and her two works in the interim shows she has not lost a step. So Belle ran a good race in her first race in the U.S. last out, finishing second. Her pedigree suggests that the added distance will not be a problem. She figures to stalk a solid past in her 2nd start in the states. An interesting longshot is Hard To Resist (right). This daughter of Johannesburg rolled from the back of the pack into a slow pace to break her maiden last time out. She has maintained her good form since, and keeps leading rider Joel Rosario in the irons.

So there are some thoughts on the Santa Anita Derby undercard stakes. These races provide some good support to the feature. Can Tanda return to form off the layoff? Can Jeranimo finally turn the tables on Caracortado? Can Cambina keep it rolling? We shall see. Good luck everybody.

Meteore: 1/15/2006 - 4/2/2011

2011-04-02T18:26:00.000-07:00

Grade 2 winner Meteore broke down today in the 8th race at Golden Gate. He fractured his right front ankle as they were headed into the first turn in the one mile race. The Richard Mandella trainee was a blog favorite, in no small part due to the picture above. This picture was taken at Hollywood Park in the saddling enclosure on November 27th, 2010. He was running in the Grade 2 Citation Handicap, where he finished third. He shall be missed.

(This blog will be added to as needed. I'm a little too distraught over this to put together a cohesive post.)

Drought Report - 9 Days To Go

2011-03-31T17:24:00.000-07:00

As the list of horses who will line up to carry the hopes of ending the drought seems to grow by the minute, here is a quick blurb about each of the probable entrants as of now for the Santa Anita Derby, listed in alphabetical order.

Anthony's Cross (right) continued his swift preparations by working a bullet six furlongs at Hollywood Park on Monday (3/28) in 1:12.20, the best of 5 works that morning. The winner of the Lewis looks to be coming into the race well.

Bench Points worked on Saturday (3/26) at Hollywood Park 5 furlongs in 1:01:00, the 9th best of 20 works at the distance. This Tim Yakteen trainee looks to improve off his third-place effort in the San Felipe Stakes.

Celestic Night worked on Sunday (3/27) at Hollywood Park 6 furlongs in 1:13.60, the 3rd best of 8 works at the distance. Claimed by Mike Mitchell for $80k out of a race down the hill, he will be taking a steep step up in class.

Comma To The Top worked on Wednesday (3/30) at Hollywood Park 4 furlongs in 49.40. His trainer Peter Miller announced that the Kentucky Derby is not in the plans for his horse, as he will struggle with the distance.

Indian Winter worked on Sunday (3/27) at Santa Anita 7 furlongs in 1:23:80. He looks to bounce back from a no excuse second in the Turf Paradise Derby last out. Patrick Valenzuela will have the mount in the Santa Anita Derby.

Jaycito (right) hasn't worked since last week's work at Hollywood Park. He will probably work on Friday. He is on the fence on whether he will run here or in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on the same day. (This blog will update this post with his work when it occurs.)

Mr. Commons has continued to work a hole in the wind in preparation for the race. He worked on Monday 7 furlongs in 1:23.80 at Hollywood Park. The effort was a tag-team work, as he started with one workmate, then had another join in during the work. Private clockers have been raving about him, and the buzz will only increase for him.

Offlee Wild Boys has been working at running and working at Golden Gate for the race. He worked there on Sunday six furlongs in 1:13.40, the best of 11 works. He and Comma To The Top share the most career starts made by any horse in the race with 12.

Premier Pegasus has been galloping since his win in the San Felipe Stakes. Based on previous experience, he should be working Saturday in his last work for the Santa Anita Derby.

Silver Medallion worked on Tuesday at Santa Anita 7 furlongs in 1:23.60. He will have the services of Garrett Gomez for the race.

One of the ones who will be not running in the race is Riveting Reason, who is off the Derby trail due to an injury. We wish him a speedy recovery

So there is a quick recap of those who will be pointing to the race. Who will take the win and carry the hopes of ending the drought? We shall see. Good luck everybody.

Drought Report - 3/24

2011-03-24T00:27:00.000-07:00

This week's drought report is rather light, so well go all bullets with it.

Possible Santa Anita Derby horses The Factor and Sway Away ran in the Rebel stakes last week with mixed results. The Factor won, while Sway Away finished off the board while losing a tooth. It looks like both will be headed to the Arkansas Derby instead, according to their trainer's comments
Silver Medallion is being pointed to the Santa Anita Derby, and Garrett Gomez
will have the mount in the race. He worked out on 3/23 (Wed.) at Santa Anita 5 furlongs in 1:02.40, the 56th out of 76 works.
Mr Commons, who won a first level allowance last out, has thrown back-to-back bullets, the latest being 6 furlongs in 1:11.80 at Hollywood Park on 3/22 (Tue.)
Jaycito worked at Hollywood Park in his first work since the San Felipe 4 furlongs in 48.40 on 3/22. Baffert says that he could be headed to the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on the same day instead.
Anthony's Cross, winner of the Robert E. Lewis, continued working towards the Santa Anita Derby with a bullet 4 furlong work in 46.8 at Hollywood Park on 3/20 (Sun.)

An Interesting Sunday at Santa Anita

2011-03-20T10:37:00.000-07:00

This Sunday at Santa Anita, The Grade 2 San Luis Rey Stakes will be run. But that is not the focus of today's post, as the impending bad weather will affect this race in some major way, whether it is a less-than-firm turf course or taken completely off the turf. Instead, the focus will be on the three undercard races instead. In the 3rd, a field of five three year olds run in a maiden race, which marks the return of a $2.3m purchase. In the 5th, an allowance race marks the return of an undefeated horse who this blog has high hopes for going forward. The 8th race will be the Santa Paula Stakes for three year old fillies going 6 1/2 furlongs. Let us go through these races in the order they will be run, so let us start with the 3rd.

The 3rd is a maiden race for three year olds going a 1m & 1/16th. A compact field of 5 entered the race, but this race is not lacking in high quality animals. Four of the five runners were purchased in the ring, all for more than $100,000, with the only one being the 4/5 morning line favorite Midnight Interlude. This Arnold Zetcher homebred has run twice, just missing at this condition going a mile last month. He worked twice in the interim, and this son of War Chant should do well at this distance. The $2.3m purchase I mentioned earlier is Brock (right). This son of Distorted Humor finished behind future graded stakes winner Stay Thirsty in his debut, and has not run since. He has been training well over the winter at Santa Anita for most of the winter, with a 4 furlong blowout work coming into the race. With this being his first race since August, and his first route, this race will be a good spot to being his 2011 campaign. The others in the field all have started already. Southern Sculptor was a $300k weanling purchase in 2008, and ran 5th in his debut behind Fusa Code, who won the Borderland Derby next out. $500k purchase Grip Hands stretches out to a route for the first time. $115k purchase Big Business has finished behind Midnight Interlude in both starts.

The 5th race is a second-level allowance for older males going 6 1/2 furlongs. This race marks the 2010 debut of Capital Account. This 4 year old son of Closing Argument is an undefeated 2-for-2 in his career, after winning both his races in fast times. He is the highest selling son of Closing Argument, having been bought for $330,000 as a yearling back in 2008. Off since his win at Del Mar, he comes back with some stylish works, typical for his trainer Bob Baffert. He figures to be on or near the lead. With his 2011 debut today, he is added to the Ten's Top T-Breds list on the left side of this blog. His main danger figures to come from his stablemate Irrefutable. This son of Unbridled's Song is coming off a disappointing 5th place finish in an route turf race last out. He cuts back to a sprint, which he won in fast time two race back over this track. He might have some soundness issues, considering he is making only his 6th start at the age of five, but he does have some talent. Stacy's Hope drops out of graded company after finishing 5th in the Grade 2 San Carlos. He defeated Irrefutable at Hollywood Park last December.

The 8th is the $100,000 Santa Paula Stakes for 3yo fillies going 6 1/2 furlongs. The favorite is the Carla Gaines-trained Mildly Offensive. This daughter of Sharp Humor won her debut last out on a wet fast track last month going gate-to-wire in an impressive effort as the favorite. The second place finisher Home Sweet Aspen came back to win well. Mildly Offensive has thrown two swift works since the race, and looks very tough in here. California Nectar cuts back to a sprint after dueling into the ground in the Grade 1 one mile Las Virgenes Stakes. She won two sprint stakes at the meet already, the Cal Breeders' Champion Stakes and the Santa Ynez Stakes. She bounce out that effort with 3 works, though it take her a month work after that race. Hout Bay won a maiden race in fast time in January, and has kept a steady work tab since. She closed from well out of it going 5 & 1/2 furlongs in that debut.

Today figures to be a sloppy day of racing at the Great Race Place, but some good performances should appear. The 3rd, 5th and 8th races all have horses in them who could have a bright future in front of them, including a date with grade one races. Will they live up to the hype? Only time will tell. Good luck today everybody.

Drought Report - PrePeg Sprouts Wings in the San Felipe

2011-03-16T12:57:00.000-07:00

The Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes appeared to be a tough race on paper. With two grade one winners, a pair of Bafferts, an abundance of speed and contenders stretching out to a route for the first time, there were many ways to go in this race. This blog hoped that a star would burst onto the scene to lead the charge in the search for the "Drought Breaker". But even this blog could not believe just how this leader emerged, with a devastating performance over his rivals. Furthermore, this blog was in shock that it was the horse that was the one pegged to do so that was doing the winning.

Premier Pegasus (right) won the race with a spurt of pure power turning for home. He dropped back off the hot pace set by Albergatti, Runflatout and Comma To The Top. PrePeg moved passed his tiring rivals with a strong burst turning for home, getting lengths of separation in the span of a quarter-mile. In the end, he won the race by 7 3/4 lengths in a time of 1:41.23. His sire Fusaichi Pegasus also won this race before going on to win the Kentucky Derby in 2000. Now many will point out that he did receive a great set-up with the swift fractions, and the fact that he tired late. This blog does not disagree with either statement, but the counterpoint to that is that it still takes a good horse to get that kind of separation that quickly. Also, he was making his first start routing off a 20 day layoff with only one work in between, and only 3 works before the previous race, which was be preceded by a 3 month layoff. He had every right to get tired at that point, and he was not really asked in the final 1/16th. This blog is sky high over the performance, as he has been the choice to break the drought and win the Kentucky Derby since October of last year. (Full disclosure: This blog managed to get into the winner's circle picture for the San Felipe, so I am admittedly somewhat biased on my thoughts of this race about PrePeg.)

Second-place finisher Jaycito (right) was making his first start back since his disaster of a race in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. He dropped way back and rallied on for second. It was a nice building block for the future, which figures to be the Santa Anita Derby and a rematch with Premier Pegasus. His pedigree indicates that he will have no problems with the distance, and his run on Saturday answered the lingering dirt questions that surrounded him after his BC disaster. He will have to improve to catch not only PrePeg, but the ever-looming Uncle Mo as well. His trainer Bob Baffert has won several Santa Anita Derby and Kentucky Derby trophies, but never in the same year. Will this be the year?

The third-place finsher Bench Points (left) had some minor traffic problems when he made his move to inside as PrePeg was launching on the outside, but was no match for the winner and barely made it by Comma To The Top, who ran a game 4th after being a part of those wicked fractions. He proved that he can handle the dirt just fine but the percieved distance limtations may be a reality. The connections could point to a race like the Met Mile, where his speed and determination will be an asset. The massively hyped Runflatout, who was bet down to the 5/2 second choice, finished last, being done in by the wicked fractions that were heavily predicted. Hopefully his connections will regroup with him for a summer campaign.

News and Notes

Silver Medallion, the El Camino Real winner, had a majority interest in him sold, and will most likely be running in the Louisiana Derby for his last Derby prep instead of the Santa Anita Derby, where the chance to stay alive for the Preakness 5.5. existed. He worked 6f in 1:12.80 over the Santa Anita dirt on Monday (3/14), the 6th best of 14 works.
Another Asmussen trainee, Astrology, is headed to the Sunland Park Derby for his first start of the year. He worked 7f in 1:25.20 on 3/15.
Robert B Lewis Stakes winner Anthony's Cross worked across town at Hollywood on Monday, working 6f in 1:14.60, the 5th best of 6th works.
Also working at Hollywood, but on Tuesday (3/15) was allowance winner Mr. Commons. He popped a bullet 5f work in 59.2, the fastest of 27 works that day.
San Vicente runner-up Sway Away worked on 3/12 at Santa Anita, going 7f in 1:23.6 in preparation for the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park this weekend. He will be going with the winner of that race The Factor, who also worked on 3/12, going a bullet 6f in 1:12.2, the best of 11 workers. Either one of them could be a player in the Santa Anita Derby.

Saturday saw a horse charge to the lead of the division with a burst of speed. Can Premier Pegasus be like his father and win both the San Felipe and the Kentucky Derby? Can PrePeg be like Sunday Silence and win the San Felipe, the Santa Anita Derby and the Kentucky Derby? Can PrePeg be the one who can finall break through and match the feat of the legendary Affirmed, who won the San Felipe, the Santa Anita Derby and then the elusive Triple Crown? We shall see. Good luck everybody.

San Felipe Stakes - Schooling Shots

2011-03-11T23:09:00.000-08:00

This post will share some of the shots taken over the last two days of most of the runners in the grade 2 San Felipe Stakes being run this Saturday at Santa Anita. If you wish to know my thoughts about the race, including who I picked and who I think the main dangers are to that pick, please go to the Thorofan Handicappers' Corner. Now, this blog was unable to get a shot of every horse schooling, as circumstances prevent this. (Some horses do not have a name on the halter, some may have not schooled or they may have sneaked by in plain sight.)

Albergatti (Thursday)

Awesome Patriot (Thursday)

Premier Pegasus (Friday)

Bench Points (Friday)

Jakesam (Friday)

Jaycito (Thursday)

Drought Report - San Felipe Stakes

2011-03-09T23:10:00.000-08:00

As the final stakes prep for the Santa Anita Derby arrives this weekend, most of the big guns show up to continue their preparations as the first Saturday in May draws ever closer. One of the leaders of the division makes his seasonal debut out of a new barn, and some fast maiden winners step up to stakes level in the Grade 2 $250k San Felipe Stakes. We shall also recap the Santa Anita Oaks, and catch up on some of the workers who are not running this weekend, but still might be a part of the Santa Anita Derby in a month's time. Let's start with a brief recap of the SA Oaks.

The Santa Anita Oaks field of five was made up of three Grade 1 winners, a stakes winner and a well-fancied runner. May Day Rose set sensible fractions on the front end, with sitting in 2nd. Behind her was A Z Warrior. Kilograeme sat third, with Turbulent Descent (right) fourth and Zazu trailing the field, and it stayed that way through the first half of the race. As they turned for home, Kilograeme dropped back to last, with Turbulent Descent and Zazu closing in on the front pair. With a 1/16th to go, Turbulent Descent and Zazu had both passed A Z Warrior, with May Day Rose backing out of the picture. At the wire, Turbulent Descent held off Zazu by a neck, with 5 & 1/2 lengths back to A Z Warrior in third. This was the second Grade 1 win for TD, and would put her in great position for the Kentucky Oaks on May 6th, But her connections have decided that this race proves that this distance is her upper limit. She will be kept in one-turn races, with the Grade 1 Acorn being a possibility. Zazu will probably ship out of town for her next start, either the Fantasy S. at Oaklawn or the Ashland S. at Keeneland.

Now we move onto this Saturday's San Felipe Stakes. A field of 10 comes together for the race, with the likely favorite to be Jaycito. This son of Victory Gallop was last seen taking the scenic route in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last November behind Uncle Mo, bolting in the first turn before rallying for a distant 5th. Since that race, he has changed barns, now residing in the Bob Baffert barn. He has worked superbly towards the race, and this former grade 1 winner at the distance will have to earn this victory. The other grade 1 winner in the field (also at the distance) is Comma To The Top. This son of Bwana Charlie looks to bounce back from a dull 4th in the El Camino Real Derby last month. He's had two steady works since the race, and will go off at much higher odds than he has in last three starts. Premier Pegasus looks to build off his third-place effort in the San Vicente Stakes on President's Day weekend. He may have tipped his hand about his readiness with a swift 5 furlong bullet in 57.60 last Saturday. Bench Points (right) brings his undefeated record into the race as he stretches out for the first time. He ran a smashing race in his first race this year, winning in strong time. Runflatout ran what may have been the fastest 6 furlong debut win EVER (according to the Illman blog on drf.com) in January and steps right into stakes company, as does Albergatti, who broke his maiden in only his second lifetime start. This will be a very tough race that will hopefully help clarify the jumbled picture.

News and Notes

El Camino Real Derby winner Silver Medallion worked at SA on 3/7 6 furlongs in a 1:12 flat, 3rd best of 14.

Robert E. Lewis winner Anthony's Cross worked over at Hollywood Park, going 5 furlongs in 1:01, earning the rare Breezing designation for the work.

The runner-up Riveting Reason worked 5 furlongs on 3/5 at SA, going 5 furlongs in 1:00.80.

Mr. Commons, who won an allowance race going a mile on 2/26, worked 4f in an easy 49.2 over at Hollywood Park

Sway Away worked 5f in 1:02.80 in preparation for the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park next weekend, but still could run in the Santa Anita Derby.

So the last stop on the prep train arrives in the continuing search for the Drought Breaker. Can someone separate themselves from the pack and take control of the search? We shall see...

Big Cap Full of Controversy

2011-03-07T04:56:00.000-08:00

The 74th Santa Anita Handicap had it all: drama, action, controversy, and in the end, a ground-breaking victory. A four-year old won the race as expected, and a horse who is eligible for a non-winners of two lifetime was second, but neither spot was filled by the horse expected to fill it. The favorites were off the board, and a parade of longshots filled the superfecta. Instead of the sweet coronation of Twirling Candy, the other "Dude" from the Bob Baffert barn hit the wire first over the horse who everyone last year was gaga over not being in the Kentucky Derby. Let's break down this scrum of a race.

First, here is the replay:

This blog watched the race from the walkway that separates the two levels of box seats on the finish line. The fractions were quick early on, with First Dude and Aggie Engineer on the lead after a half-mile, with Game On Dude just off. A tugging Twirling Candy and Setsuko (right) sat right behind them. After three-quarters, Game On Dude had moved up on the leaders, and Twirling Candy was four-wide a length back, with Setsuko on his outside. As they turn for home, First Dude and Aggie Engineer back out of it, with Game On Dude taking the lead four-wide. Twirling Candy and Setsuko made their move even wider out, and that is where the drama begins. The bumping that ensues will lead to a decision that will be debated for years. At the wire, Game On Dude just hangs on over Setsuko, with Quindici Man finishing third, Soul Candy fourth and Twirling Candy fading to fifth.

The inquiry light went up, and the replay repeated over and over on the jumbotron. The crowd buzzed with people arguing whether or not someone should be DQ'ed. This blog engaged in a lively discussion with several of his friends and some complete strangers about the incident, including one man who offered a proposition of $100 that the horse would be taken down. (This blog declined) After a lengthy inquiry, the stewards decided in a split decision that there would be no change to the order of finish. A cascade of boos rained down from the grandstand as Game On Dude (right) entered the winner's circle. Miss Sutherland required a four-guard escort back to the jocks room. The post-race interviews were drowned by the continued jeering of the crowd.

But this blog feels that the lack of a DQ was the right call. Why?

First, let's establish the runners at the 1:49 mark of the video. Game On Dude is on the inside, Twirling Candy is in the middle and Setsuko is on the outside. As the trio turns for home, Twirling takes a wider arc coming out of the turn than expected, causing him to push Setsuko slightly out. This kind of move happens in racing every day without disqualification. However, it is important to point out. Game On Dude takes the turn normal, and there is about a path of separation between him and Candy. As they straighten out in the stretch (4:30 mark on the video), Setsuko is bumped slightly by Twirling Candy. Rosario then pulls Candy towards the rail (and Game On Dude) to straighten out the horse and more importantly, to get Candy to change leads. This causes Candy to slowly drift to the right. When Rosario attempts to switch leads and Twirling Candy's back end comes around slightly, he and Game On Dude make contact at the exact moment G.O.D. is being whipped left-handed by Chantal, at the second whip strike. This leads to Twirling being pinballed between the two and backing out of the race.

Now, the fact that Twirling Candy had been pulling for most of the race up until that point lends to the belief that he was already giving his all when they turned for home. This is reinforced by Candy floating wide through the turn, with the subsequent bump with Setsuko as they straighten out, aiding this belief. When Rosario attempted to initiate the lead change, Candy's body reacted by drifting more than normal, causing his back end to lean further towards Game On Dude. This meant that when the contact was made, it caused G.O.D. to spin out more than normal. This exacerbated the visual effect of the bumping for the crowd, leading to the obvious negative reaction. Candy backed up, but this blog believes that too much of his problems were caused by him to warrant a disqualification. While this bump did affect Setsuko, he had every chance to win the race after the incident. If he maintains a straight course, he probably beats G.O.D. to the wire. But he lugs in from the 6-7 path all the way to the 2-3 path by the time they reach the wire. This ducking in cost him more ground than what he was beaten by at the wire.

There is my take. Agree? Disagree? Let me know in the comments below. For a different take on the race from someone else who witnessed the race live on track, please visit my fellow TBA blog member Amateurcapper, who states that G.O.D. should have been DQ'ed all the way to 5th, behind Twirling Candy.

Santa Anita Handicap / Kilroe Mile

2011-03-05T08:26:00.000-08:00

The first Saturday in March brings along one of the tent poles of the Santa Anita meet, the Grade 1 $750k Santa Anita Handicap going a mile and a 1/4 on the main track. Such superb horses such as John Henry, Alysheba, Affirmed, Seabiscuit and Spectacular Bid. In recent times, horses such as Tiznow and Lava Man have won the race. This is the classic test for older males in the winter, and this year's rendition brings together an interesting lot with a potential superstar in the making in the race. The undercard has two more Grade 1 races, the Frank E. Kilroe Mile at a mile on the grass, and the Santa Anita Oaks going 1m & 1/16th on the main track. Since we touched on the Oaks in the Drought Report, we'll begin the discussion with the Kilroe Mile.

The Frank E. Kilroe Mile is the first Grade 1 on the grass on the west coast, and the field of ten is a competitive lot. The favorite will probably be Caracortado, who last time out won the Sunshine Millions Turf last out. This son of Cat Dreams has transformed from a front-runner earlier on in his career to now a deep-closing type. He is cutting back an 1/8th of a mile today, and brings three swift works in tow. Fluke looks to improve of his narrow loss last year in this race, and looks to maintain his fine form. He won the prep for this race, the Grade 3 Thunder Road. He figures to get a good stalking trip off the leaders. Jeranimo (right) looks to shake off his poor effort in the Sunshine Millions Turf last out. He was found out to be a little sick after the race, and with the additional issue of his sale falling-through, this blog believes that race was just too bad to be true, and he is the selection. With 3 good works since the race, he appears to have bounced back fine. Though he loses his jockey to Fluke, he has a more than adequate replacement in David Flores. Also in the race are graded stakes winners on the grass Liberian Freighter, Acclamation and Gallant Son.

The favorite for the Big 'Cap is Twirling Candy (right). He is trying to join such recent horses such as Rock Hard Ten and Southern Image, who won both the 7 furlong Malibu and the 10 furlong Santa Anita Handicap in the same meet. This son of Candy Ride effortlessly beat his competitors in his prep for the race, the Grade 2 Strub Stakes. He has trained well since the race, with 3 good works. He is facing older for just the second time in his career however, with his first start being a disastrous fourth in the Goodwood Stakes last October. The first half of the powerful Sadler punch will be sitting just off the pace. This blog believes he has matured since that race, and he appears to be ready to take the last step towards his ascent to the top of the older male division.

The Bob Baffert barn has four shots to defeating the favorite. First Dude is the new shooter, having been recently transferred into the barn after a fourth-place finish in the Sunshine Millions Classic at Gulfstream Park. Baffert hopes to shake up him out of his non-winning rut, with this son Stephen Got Even almost earning $900k without winning nothing more than a maiden race. He has three typical snappy works since joining the barn, and with last year's winning jockey Martin Garcia (aboard Misremembered) in the irons, maybe he'll finally get his elusive stakes win. Game On Dude returned off the layoff from his 4th-place finish in the Belmont to win an allowance race last time out, and this blog think he has a big chance to be the "dude" with the best finish behind Twirling Candy. Tweebster finished second behind Twirling Candy in the Strub Stakes last out, but looks to be in tough. Spurrier hopes to be making an effort from the back of the pack, though the track's current nature is against him.

Among the rest, the other half of the strong Sadler two-step is Gladding, who won the Grade 2 San Antonio last out over fellow entrants Spurrier, Pode Ir, Quindici Man and Aggie Engineer and looks to have the best chance among the field to defeat his stablemate with a similar trip to Twirling Candy. The Gallagher barn has two shots with the stretch-running Soul Candy and the multiple graded stakes winning Aggie Engineer, who suffered through a questionable ride in the San Antonio.

Today is a big day for the Southern California racing scene. A strong field in the Kilroe Mile and an interesting field in the Santa Anita Oaks helps support an already great card anchored by the Santa Anita Handicap. Can Fluke avenge his narrow loss, or will Jeranimo jump back into the picture? Will Twirling Candy live up to heavy favoritism and assert his claim to the older male title, or will a Dude upset the plans? We shall see. Good luck everybody!

Drought Report - Santa Anita Oaks Preview / San Vicente Stakes Review

2011-03-03T01:50:00.000-08:00

The Drought Report returns after a one week absence to recap the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes from President's Day weekend. This race looks like it may produce at least one horse pointed to the Santa Anita Derby with some "buzz" around them. Looking forward, this blog shall look at this weekend's Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks, which could possibly produce a Santa Anita Derby starter. Let's get to the recap. (I apologize for the lack of posting, but some personal issues came up that prevent me from posting)

The Factor (right) won the San Vicente by going fast early (but slow late). He blazed through early fractions of 22.20 and 43.41, and finished in a slow (for that track) 36.93 seconds the last 3 furlongs. He snatched the lead early away from City Cool, disposed of that rival, kicked clear, then held off Sway Away's late stab. It was a solid effort from a horse who had only worked twice (at Hollywood Park) since his record-setting win on opening day. (He had been galloping during the interim). His connections have decided to try a route of ground in his next race, but it will not be at Santa Anita. They will instead point him towards the Grade 3 $800k Sunland Derby on March 27th. While this blog does not think he will last the Derby distance, he would have been a major factor (no pun intended) in the San Felipe Stakes.

Sway Away (right) rallied from far back to finish second. He was further back than normal coming off the layoff, and that is what may have cost him the victory. This son of Afleet Alex made his first start since finishing second to J P's Gusto in the Grade 2 Best Pal Stakes last August at Del Mar. His pedigree suggests that he should not have an issue with any additional distance. His connections have not made a firm decision on what his next race will be, but they have narrowed it down to either the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes next weekend or ship out for the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park the following weekend. Both races are at a mile and one-sixteenth. Either race could be used as a stepping-stone for the Santa Anita Derby.

Premier Pegasus (right) stalked the pace but gave way a little late, staying on for third. He was making his first start since his win in the Grade 3 Hollywood Prevue last November. His effort was rather good for a horse who only manages to get in three works in preparation for the race off the three month layoff. This blog's pick to win the Kentucky Derby ran about as expected in the race, and it should set him up well for whatever his next race will be. One would assume that his next start would be in the San Felipe as well, but no word has been given if it will be. The San Felipe could be the deepest Derby prep so far, with Sway Away, Jaycito, PrePeg, Albergatti, Runflatout and Comma To The Top (plus whomever else enters) all run as expected. That race figures to be a great betting race as well as a guide to help sort the pretenders from the pretenders.

News and Notes

Awesome Patriot (who could also run in the San Felipe) has continually worked since his allowance win opening week, with his latest spin being on 2/28, going 6 furlongs in 1:13.20 at Santa Anita. This Baffert trainee has been on the sidelines, waiting for the right stake, either here or out of town
Albergatti, pointed to the San Felipe, worked a steady five furlongs on 2/28 at Santa Anita, going 5 furlongs with 59.80.
Jaycito worked towards his 2011 debut with a sparkling 5 furlong work on 2/28 at Santa Anita, coming home in 58.60, the third best of the day.
Comma To The Top looking to bounce back from his poor effort in the El Camino Real Derby in the San Felipe, worked 5f at Hollywood Park on 2/28, sizzling home in 58.8, the 2nd best work of 37.
Runflatout, who ran the fastest debut win EVER (according to the Illman blog) in his maiden win on Sunshine Millions day in January, worked on 2/28 7f in 1:24.20 at Santa Anita. He will make his stakes debut in the San Felipe.
El Camino Real Derby winner Silver Medallion worked on 2/28 an easy 5 furlongs in 1:01.40. His next start is still up in the air.
The Steve Asmussen trainee Astrology will point to the Rebel instead of the San Felipe, paving the way for Albergatti to stay here. (He is also the trainer of Silver Medallion and Albergatti.)

The Santa Anita Oaks has produced starters for the Santa Anita Derby in the past. The last runner to do so was Sweet Catomine, who lost in the Derby as the even money favorite after winning the Oaks in her previous start. Only one Triple Crown nominee, Turbulent Descent. The grade 1 Hollywood Starlet winner ran an okay second in first start of her 2011 campaign in the grade 1 Las Virgenes Stake, who was by Zazu, who she takes on once again. Zazu looks to keep her momentum going out of that race for her well-known owners Mr & Mrs. Jerry and Ann Moss. May Day Rose also comes out of that race, and looks to try to take them wire-to-wire once again. Another grade 1 winner also goes in the race in A Z Warrior. This daughter of Bernardini has not started since her off the board finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. She previously had won the grade 1 Frizette at Belmont Park. The only horse who has not won a stake, nor even started in one, is Kilograeme (right). This daughter of Graeme Hall won her debut race sprinting at the beginning of the meet, then came back and defeated the highly regarded Rumor in allowance race three weeks ago. She steps up into graded stakes company, and figures to get a good stalking trip sitting right behind May Day Rose if she can handle the the class hike.

So as the halfway point of the Santa Anita meet comes and goes, the picture still remains rather muddled on who will step up and be the one to attempt to end the drought. Will a filly step into the picture? Can those coming back return or surpass their previous form? We shall see. Good luck everybody.

Santa Anita President's Day Weekend Stakes Wrap-Up

2011-02-22T23:40:00.000-08:00

Last weekend brought with it a three-day weekend as the nation celebrated Lincoln's and Washington's birthdays. Santa Anita ran 5 stakes over those three days, from a pair of 7 furlong sprints to a mile and a half marathon on the lawn. On Saturday, the Grade 2 San Luis Obispo Stakes and the Grade 2 San Carlos Stakes were run, both with thrilling stretch-drives. Sunday brought the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes. Monday brought a couple of races on the grass, the Grade 3 La Habra Stakes and the Grade 2 Buena Vista Handicap. The stakes actions had some scintillating stretch runs, some devastating late kicks and a solid gate-to-wire performance.

On Saturday, The Grade 2 San Luis Obispo Stakes at a mile and one-half continued the budding rivalry between arguably the two best turf horses in the country, Champ Pegasus (right) and Bourbon Bay. In the San Marcos Stakes last month, Bourbon beat Champ, maintaining a perfect record over the course. This race was affected by the inclement weather that hit the Southern California area on Friday and Saturday, forcing the start of the race to happen on the main oval of the turf course, and not on the downhill portion. The race itself managed to avoid the rain, as the sun was out. Unbridle’s Dream went out and set the lead, getting in front by, at some points, 10 lengths. Bourbon tracked the leader in 2nd, taking over the lead when the pacesetter faded in the stretch. (Unbridle’s Dream had to be vanned off after the race with a non-life-threatening injury.) Champ Pegasus came right up to Bourbon Bay, and they threw it down in the stretch, battling right down to the wire. In the end, the Champ won the battle, as he won the photo over Bourbon at the wire. After the race, Champ’s trainer Richard Mandella said that he will head to Dubai with his runner for a race on the Dubai World Cup night, and Bourbon Bay’s trainer. Neil Drysdale said he will take his charge there as well. It is a bit of shame that these two will not continue through the rest of the San Juan Capistrano series, as these two could have eclipsed the last big turf rivalry in Southern California, Kotashaan and Bien Bien. This blog wishes them luck in Dubai.

A few hours later, with a hailstorm in the interim, under much wetter conditions, the Grade 2 San Carlos Stakes at 7 furlongs ended up with 4 of the 6 horses finishing within a length of each other at the wire. The favorite was Smiling Tiger (right). He was looking to bounce back from his disappointing third-place effort in the Palos Verdes Handicap last month. Captain Cherokee, who finished second in the Palos Verdes, along with the Baffert duo of Mythical Power and Ventana, were among those who lined up against them. At the break, Smiling Tiger had trouble, and was in the unusual situation of having to come off the pace. Captain Cherokee and Ventana set the moderate fractions down the backstretch on a less than fast track, and held the lead until the final 1/16th. Mythical Power charged, as did Smiling Tiger. As they hit the wire, Smiling Tiger gamely went by the others, winning from well off the pace under a perfect ride by his jockey Joel Rosario. The connections for Smiling Tiger stated that their next goal is Met Mile at Belmont on Memorial Day.

On Sunday, 6 three year olds lined up in the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes going 7 furlongs. The favorite was The Factor (right), who was making his first start since his track-record performance on opening day. Second choice in the betting was Best Pal Stakes runner up Sway Away, who was making his first start since that race in August. Third choice was Hollywood Prevue winner and this blog’s choice to win the Kentucky Derby Premier Pegasus. The Factor went right out to lead, dueling with and eventually putting away City Cool by the time the field was turning for home under swift fractions. PrePeg stalked the blistering pace, but could not stay with the leaders and ended up a solid third. Sway Away rallied from well out of it, but could not catch The Factor, with the race finishing in a time similar to the San Carlos. Further analysis of this race will be provided in the next Drought Report post.

On Monday, the stakes action kicked off with the Grade 3 La Habra going about 6 & ½ furlongs down the hillside turf course, with the turf listed as good. This was a surprise to this blog that the race was on the turf, as the amount of rain SoCal received was not insubstantial. A Z Warrior and Bloemer Girl were both major scratches from the race. One of the betting choices was Cambina(right), who looked to put in a late run and build off her trouble-filled North American debut in the Sweet Life Stakes (which was a common race to many in here. The favorite was Cloneylass, who like Cambina, was severely impeded during the running of the Sweet Life, in which she finished second. Two of the also-eligibles drew in, with Quiet Oasis drawing some attention on the board, partly due to her 7th-placed finish in the Bredeers’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf and her luring of top local jockey Joel Rosario. At the wire, a desperate photo separated Quiet Oasis, who took over in the stretch, and the on-rushing Cambina, who rallied from well out of it. Cambina won the photo over Quiet Oasis, with Cathy’s Crunches finishing well-back in third. These two could hook up next in the Grade 2 Providencia Stakes going a mile on the grass on the Santa Anita Derby undercard.

Two races later, 11 older mares hooked up in the Grade 2 Buena Vista Handicap. The field was evenly matched, with the morning line emphasizing that by making the morning-line favorite 4/1. However, the favorite (Evening Jewel) scratched out of the race, with the connections citing the post and the less-than-firm turf conditions. Favoritism fell to Malibu Pier, who was coming off a disappointing finish in the Grade 2 El Encino last month on the main track. Returning to the turf, where she previously won on, she appeared a solid choice, and looked great in the paddock. Briecat always is a threat to take a field gate to wire, and she attempted to do as much during the race. She won the front-end battle but lost the race as Cozi Rosie (right)rallied from way back to get up for the win, with Malibu Pier finishing third. Cozi was returning from a long layoff, and may be at her best at this mile distance, as this win was her third win at the distance.

So there is a brief recap of the stakes action that occurred at Santa Anita over the President’s Day weekend. It was filled with thrilling finishes, the 2011 debuts of some future stars and the continuation of a budding rivalry. Let’s see what the rest of the meet holds.

President's Day Stakes Action at Santa Anita

2011-02-21T09:24:00.000-08:00

The President's Day holiday brings to the Great Race Place two graded stakes. First up is the Grade 3 La Habra Stakes for 3 year old fillies scheduled to go about 6.5 furlongs down the hillside turf course (though will it be actually run on the grass is questionable). Then an hour or so later, the Grade 2 Buena Vista Handicap going a mile on the grass for older fillies and mares goes off. Each race features at least on Grade 1 winner amongst their respective entrants. But Mother Nature has thrown a curveball into the mix. The large amount of precipitation that fell in Southern California last week definitely will have an effect on the races. While the Buena Vista will probably be run on the turf, albeit on a less than firm turf course, the La Habra might be run instead on the main track. Let's start with the La Habra.

The determination of whether or not the race will be run down the hill will not be made until Monday morning, but this blog thinks that the race will come off the grass, as the downhill portion of the turf course appears to take longer to dry out than the inner oval. Neither of the two prior Grade 1 winners would mind a switch to the main, as neither of them have run on the grass, and are not overly bred for it either. The #1 Rigoletta pulled a 32-1 shocker in winning the Grade 1 Oak Leaf going 1m & 1/16th over the Cushion Track at Hollywood Park. She was subsequently knocked out due to injury after that race, and has 5 works in two for her return. No matter which surface this race is run, it will be mark her first race over it, as she has run over solely synthetic in her career. The other Grade 1 winner is #3 A Z Warrior (right). This daughter of Bernardini won the Grade 1 Frizette at Belmont Park going a mile. After finishing dead last in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, she has been freshened for her 2011 campaign. She has several nice works for her return, including a bullet 5f work in 59 flat on 2/15. She beat Rigoletta when both were making their debuts in July 2010. A strong contender on either surface is #6 Bloemer Girl. This daughter of Bertrando won the Sweet Life Stakes at this very distance on the grass last time out in a race seriously affected by a loose horse (#7 She'll Heir). While the #6 has never raced over the dirt, her pedigree suggests that she will not have a problem with the dirt. The one worry with her is that she has not worked since her win in the Sweet Life on 1/22.

The Buena Vista Handicap goes a flat mile on the grass with 11 entrants + 2 also eligible. It is an evenly matched field, as shown by the tepid 4-1 morning line favorite in #11 Evening Jewel. This Grade 1 winner returns to the turf after winning the Sunshine Millions Distaff on the main track last month. She threw a solid work on the grass in the interim. She will struggle some breaking from the outside post, and her regular jockey Victor Espinoza will have to navigate a trip from out there. #5 Malibu Pier (right) returns to the grass after some mixed results on the main track. After running a solid second in the Grade 1 La Brea Stakes, she finished dead last in the El Encino Stakes. She has worked three times steadily in the interim, and seems to have bounced back from the poor effort no worse for wear. She has a good shot to work out a good stalking trip from her post. She gets in very light at a 115 lbs, 7 less than Evening Jewel and at least 2 lbs less than any of the other contenders. A horse who will be rolling from the back of the pack is #10 It Tiz. This daughter of Tiznow won a race that several of the competitors come out of, the Megahertz Stakes. Run at the same distance as the Buena Vista, It Tiz rallied from well off the pace to get up for the win. She has two good works in the interim and the race flow sets up will for her today. But will she find a way through without having to swing wide, especially with the rails at 15 feet?

Two solid stakes finish up the President's Day weekend at Santa Anita, and both hopefully will be on the grass. Who will use the La Habra as a springboard for bigger and better things? Who will win the Buena Vista to attempt to take control of the filly/mare mile division? We shall see. Good luck everybody!

Drought Report 2/16 - San Vicente Stakes & Robert Lewis/El Camino Real recap

2011-02-16T23:50:00.000-08:00

Some surprising results occurred this weekend, as the search for "The Drought Breaker" moved into full swing with two graded stakes and the first three-year old allowance on the main track this meet. In each of the three races, the heavy favorite went down to a feisty upstart. Steve Asmussen won one of them, but not the one most people expected. A new star may have emerged up north, and a Cal-bred hope emerged. A recap of these races plus a preview of the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes, that will be run on Sunday. First, let's recap the allowance race.

The first open allowance race for three year olds on the dirt at the Santa Anita meet ran on Friday. It was thought to be a match-up between the fast Baffert trainee Da Ruler and the swift Mandella filly Rumor. However, Rumor scratched out of the race when a filly-only version of this condition filled on Sunday. That plus another scratch left a compact field of 4 going 6 furlongs. Da Ruler was a heavy favorite, and pressed a hot pace set by the other two horses in the race. He took over at the top of the lane and looked strong. However, he was run down late by Bench Points (right) in a swift 1:08.22. This undefeated son of Benchmark ran his lifetime record to 4-for-4 by making his 2011 debut a winning one. He won both Cal-bred stakes at Del Mar, the I'm Smokin Stakes and the Graduation Stakes, last summer. This Tim Yakteen-trained gelding will have no problem as the distances increase, as his sire won going a 1m & 1/8, and his damsire Free House won the Santa Anita Derby, the Pacific Classic and the Santa Anita Handicap, the latter two at a 1m & 1/4. His likely next start is the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes March 12th, his first start at two turns.

Saturday brought two races that were thought to help crystallize the picture out here, yet caused more chaos instead. Here at Santa Anita, the Grade 2 Robert B Lewis Stakes going a mile and an eighth was thought to be nothing more than another notch in the belt for Tapizar, especially after Comma To The Top chose to run in the El Camino Real Derby instead (more on that in a minute). Unfortunately, things did not work out like that, as Tapizar was very rank in the early going, dragging jockey Garrett Gomez to the lead under swift fractions. He tugged and tugged so much that he had nothing left in the stretch, finishing a distant fifth out of seven runners. In a sustained stretch drive. Anthony's Cross (right) held off the multiple-graded stakes placed Riveting Reason for the win. This son of Indian Charlie avenged his loss to Tapizar in the Sham and won his first stake of his career in a slow (for this track) 1:48.63. His trainer Eoin Harty has not decided whether he will run in the Grade 2 San Felipe or wait until the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby for his next race, or maybe even ship out of town. This proved to be Tapizar's last race for a while, as he emerged from the race with a chip in his knee, and is sidelined indefinitely.

About an hour later and 400 miles up the 5 freeway, the Grade 3 El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields was run. The heavy favorite was Comma To The Top, who chose this slightly "easier" spot instead of the Lewis. Jakesam set the pace, with Comma drafting behind. Turning for home, Comma attempted to take command, but flattened out and drifted out in the stretch. The winner was Silver Medallion, who this blog had touted as a horse to watch last week. This son of Badge of Silver completed the mile and an eighth in 1:50.45, grinding out a win after having to check early and swing well wide into the stretch. The Steve Asmussen trainee could head to any one of four spots for his next race, including halfway around the world in Dubai for the UAE Derby. This blog is very high on him and hopes he ships stays local and runs in the Santa Anita Derby instead. Comma To The Top came out of the race well, but his performance may been a harbinger for his future performances at this and longer distances.

News and Notes

The Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes will be run this Sunday going 7 furlongs. Entries will be taking tomorrow, but probable for the race, making their 2011 debuts, is G3 Hollywood Prevue winner (and this blog's choice to end the drought) Premier Pegasus (right) and G2 Best Pal Stakes runner-up Sway Away. Other notable probables for the race are sparkling debut winner The Factor and San Pedro Stakes winner Indian Winter.
On Friday (2/11), the Asmussen trained Astrology continued working towards a start with a slow 4 furlong work in 51.20, the 38th best out of 42 works at Santa Anita.
Jaycito worked towards a start in the San Felipe Stakes on 3/12 with a 7 furlong work in 1:25.40 on Tuesday (2/15).

A changing of the guard took place last weekend, with a stable losing a strong hope, yet finding another. Favorites went down, prices reigned, and new challengers abound. What will this week hold? Will someone shine in the San Vicente and factor into the breaking the drought? We shall see.

Drought Report 2/9 - Robert B Lewis Stakes / El Camino Real Derby

2011-02-09T23:57:00.000-08:00

This weekend brings two graded stakes that will go a long way in determining who will be "The Drought Breaker". At "The Great Race Place", 8 sophomores are entered in the Grade 2 Robert B Lewis worth $250k going a 1m & 1/8th. Up at Golden Gate Fields, 7 are entered the $200k Grade 3 El Camino Real Derby, also going a 1m & 1/8th. Also the first open first-level allowance on the dirt for the 3yos of the meet will be run on Friday, bringing together two of the more stylish maiden winners at the meet, Da Ruler and the filly Rumor.

Both the Robert B. Lewis and the El Camino Real have shared entrants in Comma to The Top and Anthony's Cross. Comma To The Top's connections said that they are leaning towards the El Camino Real Derby, and his work on Sunday (2/6) going a bullet 5 furlongs in 59.4 at Hollywood Park, the best of 34 works at the distance. Anthony's Cross, who ran third in the Sham, worked smartly since the race, finishing up his preparations on Sunday with a 5 furlong work going 59.60, (2nd best on the day) also at Hollywood Park. Comma To The Top's presence will have a larger effect on the El Camino Real, where he would be a heavy favorite to win and the big star of the race.

The Grade 3 El Camino Real Derby is one of the marquee races of the Golden Gate Fields meet, and it appears that one of the west coast's biggest three year old in Comma To The Top. As mentioned earlier, his connections have chosen this race as his 2011 debut. This will be the farthest he has ever raced in his career, and his lack of recency could leave him vulnerable. Comma To The Top earned the respect by winning the Real Quiet, G3 Generous and G1 Hollywood Futurity during the Hollywood Park autumn meet. This blog is intrigued by Silver Medallion. This Steve Asmussen-trained son of Badge of Silver won the Eddie Logan Stakes on New Year's Eve at Santa Anita going a mile on the grass. This blog speculated that he might switch to the main after the win, and it appears that he has landed in a good spot. He has a recency edge over the favorite, should have no problem with the distance, and the workout pattern is sharp. His last work was an easy 4 furlongs in 49.40 at Santa Anita on Monday, earning the rare "B" or "Breezing" designation for the work. This means that the horse was under no urging whatsoever during the work (this fact courtesy of the Illman blog). The "B" is rarely given out in SoCal, and it should be noted that Silver Medallion's last work before the Eddie Logan also received a "B". Also running is Positive Response, who has won the two local preps for this race, the Gold Rush Stakes and the California Derby.

Grade 2 Robert B. Lewis Stakes will have a good-looking three year old, even if Comma To The Top decides to head north, in Tapizar. This son of Tapit (right) won the Grade 3 Sham Stakes last month in gate-to-wire fashion, blowing the field off their feet. In the process, he ran more than a second faster than Indian Firewater did in the Grade 2 San Fernando Stakes for four year olds later on the card. This Asmussen charge looks to assert himself once again a strong contender for the Santa Anita Derby with a win. His last work was an easy four furlongs in 49 flat on Monday at Santa Anita, and like his stablemate, he earned a "B" designation. It would not be a derby prep race in Southern California without a Bob Baffert trainee, and he is represented by Wegner. This son of Dynaformer also plies his trade on the front end, as does the multiple graded-stakes placed Riveting Reason. Also in the field is Thirtyfirststreet, who will stretch out for the first time in the race off his win the CA Breeders' Champions Stakes on opening day.

News and Notes

On Tuesday 2/8, San Pedro Stakes winner Indian Winter worked a bullet 6 furlongs in 1:13 (best of 10 workers) at Santa Anita in preparation for next start, which maybe the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes next Saturday (2/19).
Jaycito worked on Monday 2/7 5 furlongs in 59.20 at Santa Anita, the 4th best work of 48.
Astrology worked for the first time since arriving in Southern California for Steve Asmussen on Saturday 2/5. His first spin a tepid 4 furlongs in 52 seconds. He could be pointed to the San Felipe as well
Premier Pegasus worked 5 furlongs in 1:01.60 at Santa Anita on Friday 2/4. He also could be pointed to the San Felipe.
The Factor had his first official work (though he had been galloping long for a few weeks) since his scintillating win on opening day. He went 4 furlongs in an easy 48.2 at Hollywood Park on Tuesday (2/8)
Lastly, the first open allowance on the dirt for either sex of the meet is set for Friday. It matches up the Baffert trainee Da Ruler (below left) and the Richard Mandella filly Rumor (below right). Rumor is in this race as a means to an end, since all attempts at a N1X for fillies only has failed to fill several times. Both have high ceilings when it comes to their futures, and let's hope that the race proves to be a good one for all parties involved.

VS.

The stakes action begins in earnest this weekend, and the picture could become clearer after this weekend's stakes. A future star hopes to solidify his position on top, while the one on top attempts to maintain his position there. Should be some good action all weekend. Good luck everybody!

Strub Stakes Day

2011-02-05T11:01:00.000-08:00

This Saturday bring us 3 graded stakes to Santa Anita, all local preps for major races one month from now on Big Cap day. First up will be the Grade 1 Las Virgenes at a mile, which is a prep for the Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks. Next up is the Grade 3 Thunder Road at a mile on the grass, which is the prep for the Grade 1 Frank E. Kilroe Mile. Finally, the Strub series will finish up with the Grade 2 Strub Stakes, the last chance for 4 year olds to stay within their own age group before taking on older in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap. Let's kick off the stakes action with the only Grade 1 on today's card, the Las Virgenes.

The 4th race on the card, the Las Virgenes brings together a field of 6 (7 entered, but Bluegrass Chatter was a program scratch). This race marks the 2011 debut of Turbulent Descent, who capped off her 2010 with a win the Grade 1 Hollywood Starlet. She has been training smartly across town at her Hollywood Park home base, finishing off her preparations with a bullet 5 furlong work on 1/30. Going against her today is the winner of the Grade 3 Santa Ysabel May Day Rose and the 1-2-3 finishers of the Grade 2 Santa Ynez California Nectar, Zazu and Plum Pretty. May Day Rose cuts back a 1/16th of a mile off her win, and will be winging on the front end. California Nectar is running her third race and stakes win of the meet, and will be looking for her first win at a route of ground. Zazu has finished second to both CA Nectar and Zazu, and will look to avenge both. If Turbulent Descent can take to dirt, the rest look to be running for second.

4 races later, older males face-off in the Thunder Road Handicap. The field includes grade 1 winners Fluke and Victor's Cry. The surprising entrant is Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile winner Dakota Phone. He was expected to run in the San Antonio Handicap tomorrow, but the way the dirt is playing has apparently forced the hand of the connections to use this as a prep race for the Big Cap. The Cal-bred Colgan's Chip will once again try open company, hoping to take this field wire-to-wire while cutting back to a flat mile. This blog does not have a good feeling for this race, so all he will say is that Dakota Phone is a play against at short odds. While he is 1-for-5 on the grass, the shape of the race and the shorter turf stretch will play against him.

The final race of the day is the Strub Stakes. Former recent winners of the race are multiple Grade 1 winners Rock Hard Ten and Medaglia d'Oro. The heavy favorite, and rightfully so in this blog opinion, is Twirling Candy (right). Off his track-record effort in the Grade 1 Malibu, he stretches out once again and comes in with some sparkling works. He appears to be clearly the class of the field and could be a monster in the making. The only worry is that his two starts going a mile and an eighth have been "adventurous". This blog is intrigued by a new shooter invading from the east, Honour the Deputy. This recent private purchase is now in the Hollendorfer barn and apparently adjusted well to SoCal based on his works. With the rather uninspiring lot lined up here besides TC, he is this blog's choice to surprise and get up for second. This blog is taking a stand against any horse that comes out of the Grade 2 San Fernando Stakes.

Today will be a solid day of racing out at the Great Race Place, and hopefully will see some star worthy performances. Good luck everybody!

Drought Report - 2/2

2011-02-02T20:34:00.000-08:00

As the calendar turns another page to the month of February, the day moves ever closer to determining who will be the "Drought Breaker". We will first talk about an impressive maiden winner in his debut that happened on Saturday, then we will provide some workouts and other notes.

On Saturday, race 2 at the Great Race Place, 6 three year olds lined up to go 6 furlongs. The two horses taking most of the wagering action was #1 Tokubetsu and #2 Runflatout. These two broke well, went right to the lead, with Tokubetsu getting a slight advantage. After a swift quarter mile, these two had already separated themselves from the rest of the field by a length and a half. After a half mile, these two were separated by a half length, and separated from the rest of the field by two and half lengths. Turning for home, they widen on the rest of the field, with Runflatout taking an advantage. By the time they hit the wire, Runflatout had won by 2 & 1/2 lengths over Tokubetsu, with another 8 & 1/2 lengths to the rest of the field. He covered the 6 furlongs in a swift 1:07.70. He is a son of Flatter, and was vying for favoritism for most of the betting. He appears to have a lot of talent, but is it too little, too late?

News and Notes

This blog's choice to end the drought, the undefeated Premier Pegasus, finally put in a work since his victory in the Hollywood Prevue on Friday (1/28), working 4f in 47.20. No clue on what his first prep will be, but maybe the San Felipe S. on March 12th.
Comma To The Top worked 7 furlongs on 1:24.60 at Hollywood Park on Monday (1/31) in preparation for the Robert B. Lewis S on February 12th.
San Pedro Stakes winner Indian Winter worked 5 furlongs on Tuesday (2/1) at Santa Anita in 5 furlongs in 1:00.20, the 5th best of 30 works
Jaycito worked the same morning, going 7 furlongs in 1:25.20.
The Factor has been galloping steadily towards his next start, which will be the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes on February 20th going 7 furlongs.
On Thursday (2/3), Houston Harbor, who finished second to The Factor on opening day, comes back in a maiden special weight race going 1m & 1/16th in the 6th race. He drew the outside post #10 in the field.

Another week in the books, another week closer to finding out who will be the "Drought Breaker". Good luck folks.

Drought Report - 1/26

2011-01-26T11:38:00.000-08:00

This week's Drought Report will be a little shorter than normal due to a lack of any races that could have a possible impact on the drought this week at Santa Anita. Instead, we go back two weeks to catch up on the California Derby at Golden Gate Fields, since it could possibly produce a starter for the Santa Anita Derby.

Golden Gate Fields is a track in Albany, CA, which is in the Bay Area. The California Derby is the local prep at Golden Gate Fields for the Grade 3 El Camino Real Derby. The 2011 edition of the California Derby featured a full field of 12. The favorite was Positive Response. This son of Pomeroy had won the previous stake at Golden Gate, the Gold Rush S. Many of the same horses who ran in that race came back to face him in the California Derby, but it proved to be a futile idea, as Positive Response took the lead going into the turn and drew away to win by 2 & 3/4 lengths in the end under jockey Julien Couton. This former maiden claimer (he broke his maiden for $50k @ Woodbine) is now a two-time stakes winner. What impact will he have on ending The Drought? This blog would venture little, as his pedigree does not really lends itself to go much further than he has already run.

News and Notes

On Sunday (1/25), Hollywood Futurity winner Comma To The Top worked 6 furlongs in a swift 1:10.40 at Hollywood Park in preparation for a start in the aforementioned El Camino Real Derby on Feburary 12th going 9 furlongs, his first start in 2011.
Sham Stakes winner Tapizar had his first work back on Monday (1/24) since his victory, going an easy 4 furlongs in 50.40 at Santa Anita Park.
Also on 1/24, Baffert trainee Awesome Patriot worked 5 furlongs in 1:01:60 and Del Mar Futurity winner J P's Gusto worked 7 furlongs in 1:25.40. Both are aiming for the Grade 2 Robert B Lewis Stakes on Feburary 12th going a mile and eighth.
On Wednesday (1/26) San Pedro winner Indian Winter worked a strong 4 furlongs in 48.40 seconds in his first work since the race. Also working was Sham runner-up Clubhouse Ride, who popped a swift 58.80 seconds for 5 furlongs, the 3rd best work at the distance.

Next week, this blog will try to bring some sort of order (by way of rankings) to the potential drought-breaking contenders. Until then, good luck everybody.

Presenting the 2011 Breeders' Cup Champion - William's Kitten

2011-01-23T01:27:00.000-08:00

Before this blog came into existence in the spring of 2010, a bold prediction was made on the TVG Community about the 2010 Classic. In January of 2010, It was proclaimed by yours truly that Blame would win the Classic, with Zenyatta finishing underneath in the exotics. As it later panned out, I was right. Blame won, and the only horse among those who I listed to put underneath (Zenyatta) who made the race ran second. This blog thought about putting together a list of wild prophecies to try to match or surpass the success of last year. Instead, it was decided that only one claim would be made, and it would involve a horse who this blog has followed since his win back in the summer of 2009. The prediction is this: William's Kitten will win the 2011 Breeders' Cup Classic.

Who?

A few of you may know who he is, but for those who do not, let me introduce him. William's Kitten is son of multiple Grade 1 winning sire Kitten's Joy out of the Menifee mare Blush. He has run 8 times, with 2 wins, a second and a third while being trained by Michael Maker. He was bred by his owners, Ken and Sarah Ramsey, who stands his sire at stud. He is multiple graded stakes placed, with a second (behind eventual 2010 Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver) in the 2009 Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club and a third in the 2010 Grade 3 Holy Bull S. His most significant win to date was in the 2009 Sunday Silence S. at Louisiana Downs (below), where he rushed from well off the pace to an easy victory. (below)

This win was the race that caught my eye and formed the crush. I knew at that very point that he would be my Derby horse. After a couple of so-so efforts in the Grey Stakes and the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (in which I saw him in person), he went to the KJC to run a distant second to Super Saver, who ran away and hid that day. He started 2010 with his race in the Holy Bull, and looked to be going to bigger and better things. Unfortunately, he wretched an ankle in a subsequent workout. He will be sidelined for over a year by the time he makes his next start...

... which is today (1/23) in the 9th race at Gulfstream Park going a mile on the dirt. He has been working well for the return, but he does have a few gaps in his workout tab. He looks to be in tough though, since the race also marks the return of Grade 2 Louisiana Derby winner Mission Impazible. If nothing else, this will serve as a good prep race for wherever the connections decide to run him. Knowing the connections (based on their previous decisions), if William pans out like they & I hope he does, the mid-season goal is probably the Stephen Foster Handicap at Churchill Downs. Then, hopefully a fall campaign that will set him up for a winning rally from the back of the pack in the Breeders' Cup Classic come November.

So there you have it. A bold prediction that requires a big leap of faith to see it possibly happen. I could be horribly wrong, and he may just not pan out as an older horse. But isn't it more fun to take a chance on a flier and get in on the ground floor, rather then have to scramble for room on the bandwagon come November? We shall see what he does. Good luck everybody.

Drought Report - First Steps on the Trail

2011-01-19T23:36:00.001-08:00

Last weekend, the search for the "Drought Breaker" began in earnest, with two stakes races at The Great Race Place. On Saturday, a field of five ran in the Grade 3 Sham Stakes, while on Monday, 7 sophomores hooked up in the San Pedro Stakes. In between, there was a sterling maiden breaking performance put in on Sunday by a horse who had some buzz. Also, several possible contenders continued to work towards their next start, and one made his first appearance in the afternoon (albeit while schooling).

Saturday was the beginning of the Derby trail out at Santa Anita, with the running of the $100,000 Grade 3 Sham Stakes. 5 horses lined up, with the heavy favorite being Tapizar (right). This son of Tapit went to front end and never looked back, winning in gate-to-wire fashion. He repulsed a brief challenge from multiple graded stakes-placed Clubhouse Ride turning for home, and won in a solid 1:40:38, which was faster than either of the two Grade 2 stakes held for older horses that weekend by over a second. He should have no problem with the additional distance as time goes along. His trainer Steve Asmussen said that he will remain in Santa Anita for his next start, in either the Grade 2 $250k Robert B Lewis S. on Feburary 12th going 1m & 1/8, or the Grade 2 $250k San Felipe S. on March 12th going 1m & 1/16th, the same distance as the Sham.

On Sunday, while no stakes races happened, there was a maiden special weight race that had some buzz preceding it around the track. The 4th marked the debut of two horses with some hype, the Steve Asmussen trained Albergatti, and the Bob Baffert trained Da Ruler (right). Da Ruler had a large quantity of buzz surrounding him, and he was bet accordingly, down to 1.20-1 favorite. This son of multiple graded stakes & debut winner Roman Ruler out of stakes and debut winner Dirty Diana did not disappoint, as he went right to the lead from his rail draw, repulsed an attack by Albergatti at the 1/16th pole, then kept his opponent at bay for the final strides. He won in a strong time of 1:14:52, or almost .8 faster than the San Pedro Stakes did the nest day. Who knows what the future holds for Da Ruler, but him and the runner-up seem like they could have a bright one ahead.

Monday brought us the $103,100 San Pedro S. at 6 1/2 furlongs. The betting public had a hard time sorting out the field, eventually settling on Arcadian, making him the lukewarm 3-1 favorite. Both Sinai and City Cool also were bet, being the co-2nd choices at 3.40-1. City Cool went right to lead, with Arcadian sitting just off early on. Arcadian could not live up to his favorite's role however, and faded back to 6th. City Cool held the lead until the final few strides, when Indian Winter (right) came from off the pace to pull the upset as the longest shot on the board at 10-1. This son of Indian Charlie was coming off a 4 1/2 month layoff, finishing a distant third in the G1 Del Mar Futurity. He should be fine with some additional distance, especially being out of a Dixieland Band mare, and his style should be a benefit as the races get longer.

Drought Notes

Blog favorite Premier Pegasus has still not worked since his win in the Grade 3 Hollywood Prevue on 11/20/2010. If he does not begin to resume working out soon, it will be too late for him to have an impact on "The Drought".
Grade 3 Iroquois winner and Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club runner-up Astrology (right) made an appearance in the Santa Anita paddock on Monday, schooling during the card. He received a personal escort back to the barn from his trainer Steve Asmussen, and looks to be near a return to work tab any day now.
Grade 1 Norfolk winner Jaycito has his second work back after his Breeders' Cup Juvenile disaster, where he bolted during the race and lost all chance of winning. He worked 4 furlongs in a slow 49:4 for new trainer Bob Baffert, who took over after the Juvenile.

So the stakes action has begun at Santa Anita, and the horses have begun to sort themselves out into contenders and pretenders. Tapizar struck first blood, Indian Winter reaffirmed the strength of the Del Mar Futurity, and Da Ruler proved that the hype was at least partially warranted. Can any of these continue on and be "The Drought Breaker"? We soon shall see.

Drought Report - First Scan of the Radar

2011-01-12T20:18:00.000-08:00

The first 2+ weeks of the Santa Anita meet have past, and we have witnessed several strong performances from the newly minted three year olds. This post is the first of what will be a weekly series tracking the horses that look to break "The Drought". "The Drought" is what this blog is calling the 22-year gap since the last winner of the Santa Anita Derby went on to win the Kentucky Derby. This series will take a look at any three year-old races (whether maiden, allowance or stakes) that occur during the meet that show any promise of having a potential "Drought Breaker". It will also list some of the works of these horses. Since this is the initial post, it will be longer than normal, as there are 8 races to recap, plus two to preview. The races will be reviewed in chronological order, starting with opening day.

This review start off with the 3yo probably most well known, The Factor (pictured). He won the first maiden special weight of the meet in sizzling fashion, setting a track record for 6 furlongs in his 2nd lifetime start. He went to he front and just kept going in a gate-to-wire win. He has come back to work a swift 5 furlongs on 1/9 for trainer Bob Baffert, and is nominated for Monday's San Pedro Stakes. This blog wonders if he can get the 1m & 1/8, much less 1m &1/4. The runner-up Houston Harbor has also come back to work, with two steady spins at 4f & 5f. This Steve Asmussen trainee will look to break his maiden next time out, maybe at a route of ground.

The race after, Cal-breds squared off in the California Breeders Champions Stakes. Thirtyfirststreet rallied from well off the pace to win. Will his sire was a multiple GSW on the turf, he seemed to handle the turf just fine. His pedigree suggests that he should have no problem as the distances increase, as both sides of his pedigree say "route". While the time was not super-fast, it was a solid race. 31st St. has come back to work three furlongs, and may be pointed to the Robert B. Lewis going 1m & 1/16th on February 12th.

The following day had the card lead off with a maiden special weight going a mile, in a race that was scheduled for the turf but run on the main track. Uncle Sam sat just off the speed, made his move turning for home and won in workmanlike manner. He won it in an alright time, but not sure what he beat in that race. This Baffert trainee came back to work on Sunday an easy 5 furlongs, and looks to build off his debut win in his next start, which is the Grade 3 Sham Stakes this Saturday.

Wednesday brought an allowance race that scratched down to a compact field of three. Awesome Patriot ran to the lead, with G3-placed Riveting Reason sitting right off his flank. RR engaged AP and dueled with him for a good while, but AP prevailed in the end. There is not much you can glean from this race, other than maybe Riveting Reason is better on the lead. Awesome Patriot by (who else) Bob Baffert, and came back to work on the 9th (as most of Baffert's charges did), and may end up being the odd man out in the barn. This blog thinks AP is destined for OP for his next race.

New Year's Eve brought us the Eddie Logan Stakes going mile on the grass. The winner was Silver Medallion. This son of Badge of Silver rallied from just off the pace. While the win was on turf, he should be just fine on the dirt. He "worked" for Asmussen on the 9th (a very busy day), but it was the slowest of the day. since it was only 9 days after the race, the time was irrelevant, as it was clearly just a leg stretcher.

We now skip ahead to this last weekend, where two maiden special weight bookend the early pick 3. In the 1st race, Hollywood Heat sat off a speedball and perfect-tripped his way to an easy win under a handride going 5 & 1/2 furlongs. It was only a field of 5, and did take 6 starts for him to break his maiden, but it was in a good time. Two races later, a field of 8 runners went a mile. The gate-to-wire winner was Wegner, trained by (guess who?) Bob Baffert. Wegner had to work for the victory, while under some urging. Like all of Baffert's winners listed here, he was ridden by Rafael Bejarano. Unlike the others, Wegner was a fat 8-1 on the board in winning his fourth lifetime start. Being by Dynaformer out of a Seeking the Gold mare, he should have zero issues with the distance.

Sunday brought a 5 horse field going 7 furlongs. First time starter Kilograeme hugged the rail and wore down the heavy favorite right before the wire. This son of Graeme Hall made his debut a winning one. He should have no problems with the distance, but for him to be the "Drought Breaker", he would have to be the first horse since 1881 to win the derby while not running at two.

Now that the (extended) recap is over, on to the preview of this weekend's first derby preps of the meet, The Grade 3 Sham Stakes and the San Pedro Stakes. The Sham will be run at a mile and 1/16th. It drew a field of five. Uncle Sam (who we mentioned earlier) is Baffert's lone entrant, and breaks from post 2. Tapizar figures to be the favorite off of his huge maiden win last out at Churchill Downs going a mile & 1/16th. This Asmussen trainee won by 10 1/2 lengths, and acquires the services of top rider Garrett Gomez. On Monday, the San Pedro Stakes will be run. Baffert nominated 5 of the 14 nominees, including Awesome Patriot and The Factor, along with Sinai (pictured), who was a swift debut winner at Hollywood Park last month from the rail at this distance. The interesting horse (if he runs) is Arcadian. This son of Songandaprayer blitzed the field in the Lost in the Fog Stakes at Turf Paradise, and threw a bullet 6f work in the interim.

The search is on for the horse. The one horse who will find his way to the winner circle come April 9th. That horse will carry the hopes of ended the drought. Who will be... The Drought Breaker?

Not So Smiling Tiger (Eclipse Award Finalist Thoughts)

2011-01-06T11:10:00.000-08:00

Finalists for the Eclipse Awards were announced today, with no major surprises. The big guns were nominated for Horse of the Year, and most of the categories are nothing more than mere formalities. Blind Luck, Blame, Zenyatta and Lookin at Lucky will win their respective division with ease. The two tough divisions (Sprint Male & Turf Male) look to have the right finalists (though one could argue that Paddy O'Prado should be the third finalist for Turf Male). But only one division's three finalists has this blog in uproar. The three year old male division has a clear winner in Lookin At Lucky, but the other two finalists had campaigns that were equaled, if not surpassed, by the horse who was left off the ballot.

The biggest disappointment for this blog is seeing Smiling Tiger not being nominated for champion 3yo male. While he did pick up a nod for Champion Sprinter, "Tiger" put together a campaign that was as tough as any of the three finalists, including Lucky. People complain about how the 3yo's of today wait until as long as possible to face older horses. Smiling Tiger did not, as he faced them four times this year, with his first start against them on August 1st. All four of his starts against older were at the Grade 1 level, and he hit the board in all four. (2 wins, 2 3rds.) This is stark difference to the other three finalists, who combined faced older three times. (Paddy did it twice, Lucky once and Eskendereya zero).

In Grade 1 competition, Smiling Tiger did arguably the best as well. In his 5 Grade 1 races, he hit the board all five time with 2 wins, 1 2nd & 2 3rds, with all but the 2nd against older horses. Paddy O'Prado ran 6 times in G1s, finishing with 1 win, 2 2nd and 1 3rd, with the 3rd and an off-the-board finish against older. Eskendereya ran only one race at the G1 level, winning it decisively, but not against older, and the win occurred in April. Lucky ran in 5 Grade 1's as well, finishing with 2 wins and one third, with his only run against older being a 4th, being defeated by another 3yo (Fly Down) in the process. Smiling Tiger was the only one to be on the board at the level and he did so against older.

So why didn't he get the nod? Being from a west coast barn that does not have much, if any, national presence as the Jeff Bonde barn probably hurt his chances. The fact that he did most of the damage over synthetics also hurt his cause. But the likeliest cause is the age-old bias against sprinters. Voters have shown they are very reluctant to vote for a sprinter over a router, no matter the age. Tiger was a victim of this bias, and he will not be the last. It is rather ironic that this country has bred for speed, speed and more speed the last 30 years, yet it still heavily leans towards the routers come awards time.

New Year's Day Weekend at Santa Anita Review/Preview

2011-01-01T01:55:00.000-08:00

The turning of the page to the year 2011 means the return of graded stakes to the turf course to Santa Anita after a week filled with a variety of track conditions (fast, good, wet fast). The holiday weekend started on Friday with the running of the Blue Norther and Jack Goodman Stakes on the turf at a mile for the fillies and colts (respectively). Saturday will bring a pair of graded stakes, the Grade 2 Robert J. Frankel S. (formerly the San Gorgonio) at 1m & 1/8th for older females and the Grade 3 Daytona Stakes at 6 1/2 furlongs down the hillside turf course. Sunday bring the Grade 3 Monrovia Stakes, also at 6 1/2f down the hill, but it is in doubt whether the race will stay on the grass with the threat of rain Saturday night.

Friday's stakes couplet started with the 14th running of the Blue Norther S. for two-year old fillies going a mile. The "biggest" horse to ever win this race is the diminutive Megahertz, who went on to multiple graded stakes victories. The heavy favorite in the race was Tales of Excess (pictured), who was trying a route of ground and the turf for the first time. Wave of Applause was stepping down from the Grade 3 Miesque S. at Hollywood Park for this race. Scantily Clad made her first start in North America for new trainer Doug O'Neill. In the end, Tales of Excess was able to wear down Wave of Applause in the final strides to earn the narrow victory. With her pedigree, a return to the main track is not out of the question. If not, the long-term goal could be the Grade 3 Providencia Stakes on April 9th.

The other half of the couplet was the 16th running of the Eddie Logan for 2yo males at the same distance. (Picture of the field being loaded for the Eddie Logan) Multiple Grade 1 winner Peace Rules is the most well-known past winner of this race. Moment of Weakness dropped out a second place finish in the Grade 3 Generous S. last time out, but was not the favorite. The entry of Robie the Cat and Ten Devils was the 4/5 favorite. Oakcrest Drive was an interesting first-time turf runner. But 5-1 outsider Silver Medallion upset the field, holding off Ten Devils late. By freshman sire Badge of Silver, Silver Medallion looks to have options on the main track or the turf. Maybe a try on dirt is in order, as the turf stakes schedule lacks a graded race on the calendar at the meet.

Saturday's stakes bring a compact field of five for the Grade 2 Robert J Frankel S., with Harmonious looking to be the heavy favorite. This race was renamed for the late trainer, who won this race a record eight times. Harmonious comes off an uncharacteristic off-the-board finish in the BC F&M Turf and looks to redeem herself. She has worked steadily in the interim since that race and looks to be the one to beat. Her main threat comes from the German-bred Eclair De Lune. She is the sentimental pick, as her trainer Ron McAnally was a very close, longtime friend to Frankel. She figures to be sitting just off the pace Spring Style, and could get first jump on Harmonious. It goes as the 3rd race on the card.

The Grade 3 Daytona S. takes the "feature" position on the card, with a field of 7 going 6 1/2 furlongs down the hill. Morning line favorite Quick Enough looks to have a strong chance, with his good form, his tracking style and his experience on this unique course, hitting the board in all three starts. Dance with Gable is undefeated down the hill, but must deal with the #1 post position, which is the outside post on this course. The size of field will make things a little easier, and his close-up style will help his chances of winning. Sirocco Strike and Regally Ready both made strong appearances in the paddock while schooling on Friday, but neither has ever been down the hill before, which is usually a disadvantage.

Sunday's Grade 3 Monrovia is the female counterpart of the Daytona, but with the inclement weather, it is in serious doubt whether it will be run on the grass or switch to the main track. Its placement on the Sunday card (Race 2) leads to believe that it will not stay on the grass. La Nez was a late scratch out of the La Brea last week, and will probably enjoy the switch to dirt. Evening Jewel looks to make her 4 year old debut in the race, and should be fine on either surface. She is making her first start since finishing 3rd in the BC F&M Sprint.

With the (hopefully all) turf stakes action this weekend at Santa Anita, the stakes action has begun on both surfaces. Several hope to rebound off their Breeders' Cup's efforts, while some hope for their first stakes win, and others enjoy their stakes victories. Let's hope for the rain to be light, the racing to be wide open and the cashing to be plentiful. Maybe the crowd will even let out a "harmonious" cheer. Happy new year everybody!

Opening Day Wrap-Up

2010-12-29T22:27:00.000-08:00

Opening day at Santa Anita went as well one could have hoped when it came to the racing. There were fast times, large fields and most importantly, every horse came back safe and sound.

The track was lightning quick (as expected) and fast times were abound. After the first couple of races were the jockeys were feeling out the track (and riding the race like they would on the synthetic), the 4th race featured a blowout winner and maybe a future star in The Factor. He was massively hyped before his first race (down to a ridiculous 60/1 on the Kentucky Derby future books) before running off the board. He came back with a vengeance on Sunday, setting a track record for 6 furlongs. While his pedigree doesn't exactly scream a mile and a quarter, as of now, he has a tremendous upside.

After that sparkling performance, the stakes action kicked off with the Cal Breeders Champions Stakes. Heavy favorite Arresting Officer failed to run to his odds, as he was upset by Thirtyfirststreet. This Cal-bred son of freshman sire Good Journey rallied from well off the pace for the victory. Past winners have gone on to graded stakes glory, such as Preakness winner Snow Chief, multiple grade 1 winner General Challenge, both who won this race on their way to Santa Anita Derby glory, and multiple grade 1 wins after that. The winner's pedigree says that the distance will not be a problem for the SA Derby, but is the horse fast enough? The time was good, not great, for the 7 furlong distance (1:22:20). Not overly fast (compared to most of the card), but a good building block race nonetheless.

The graded stakes action kicked off with the Grade 1 La Brea. Switch came off of a strong 2nd place finish in the BC F&M Sprint in her last race. The trainer of Champagne D'Oro had been talking her up all week, and she definitely looked the part in the paddock. Malibu Pier was the buzz horse all week. But Switch turned the lights off on the field with a scintillating run to win the race by 4 widening lengths. Malibu Pier rallied for second and Champagne D'Oro finished well, well back. Her time (1:20:33) was just three tenths of the then track record, and was a harbinger for what was to come later on in the card. Switch's connections now face an interesting dilemma on what her next race will be. She could continue in the La Canada series and go next in the Grade 2 El Encino S. on 1/16, or she could stay at the distance and run in the Grade 1 Santa Monica H. on 1/30. A tough decision indeed.

In the next race, a scratched down field of five ran in the Grade 3 Sir Beaufort S. (could be reinstated back at Grade 2 depending on the GSC), which was run on the main track instead of the turf. Sidney's Candy was the heavy favorite, appeared to be the lone speed in the race, and just blew the doors off his opponents early, winning in wire-to-wire fashion. Now, while the win was visually impressive, Sidney was beating up on a field who would struggle to compete against grade 3 competition. All this race reinforced is that when Sidney is given a clear lead, he will kick on. Now, when he faces a field filled with other quality speed.pressers, can he hang on? Or will he fold quickly?

The last graded stakes race on the card was the Grade 1 Malibu Stakes. Alcindor was the hype horse, who only had two starts but did them in style. Smiling Tiger came off a 3rd in the Breeders' Cup Sprint and was looking to lock down Eclipse Award finalist status in both the Sprint and 3yo male divisions. Twirling Candy (pictured) was looking to rebound after a disastrous run in his previous start. Noble's Promise invaded from the east and would go off favored. Smiling Tiger harangued Alcindor through the first half-mile and put him away turning for home. ST dug deep, trying to hold on, but Twirling Candy loomed up and just went by him in the final few strides. In the process, they both broke Spectacular Bid's 30 year old track record. This blog is the first to admit that the track was blazing fast, and if Bid had run on it, he might have gone 1:19 flat. Still, don't take away from the effort that these two horses put up in the race. Twirling Candy looks to be a force to be reckoned with in the older male division, and he is dangerous on both dirt and turf.

What did we learn on opening day? Speed, especially run-away-and-hide speed, can and will be a usable tool once again in Southern California; Switch looks to be a major contender to vacated older female throne; Twirling Candy is a fast horse; and maybe, just maybe, we saw the arrival of a future superstar. Now let's hope the rest of the meet is this good...

P.S. This post was delayed due to computer issues, and I apologize for its tardiness.

A New Chapter for Santa Anita

2010-12-26T01:44:00.001-08:00

On Christmas Day back in 1934, Santa Anita opened its doors for racing for the first time. Its Art Deco facade remains nearly the same it did then as it does now. Opening day is one of the marquee days of the meet, and is filled with stakes action. The always-beloved calendar will once again been given away, with this year's theme showcasing some of the many occurrences where Santa Anita served as the backdrop for featured films and television shows. With another season upon us, many ideas, hopes and dreams swirl in the air over the new surface, the end to "The Drought" and many, many more. This blog will take share some thoughts on these two, along with a few other thoughts about the meet.

The dirt - The re-installation of a new dirt surface has people buzzing. The track already handled its first major test in style with its tolerating of ten-plus inches of rain in the span of less than six days time. It has produced fast workout times and for now has handled the horse traffic with ease. Hopefully this trend continues and the fears of this blog that switch would lead to a swath of injuries will proved to be unfounded. The return to dirt has brought some new blood into the water as well. Trainer Steve Asmussen has sent a string out here to train over the track, including some of his well-thought of two year olds such as Brock, the $2.3 million yearling purchase out of the sire Distorted Humor. The switch to dirt could also help future Derby prospects in their ultimate goal. That leads me to...

"The Drought" - The drought I speak of is the 21 year gap of the Santa Anita Derby winner going on to win the Kentucky Derby. Not since Sunday Silence in 1989 has the winner gone on to claim the roses the first Saturday in May. While some have come close (Cavonnier, Pioneerof The Nile) and some who have not won have gone on to win in Kentucky ( Real Quiet, Giacomo), not one horse has pulled the double since 1989. Maybe the switch back to dirt, along with the Preakness 5.5 program, will finally give that last little oomph need to get a horse to pull the double. Maybe one of Bob Baffert's many charges will be the one to do it, including the newest horse to join the barn, Grade 1 winning Jaycito. Or it could be this blog's current choice to break the streak, Premier Pegasus. This son of 2000 Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus, out of a mare who has also produced Grade 1 winner Street Hero, is three-for-three lifetime. He won the Grade 3 Hollywood Prevue last time out, and he is being pointed to first prep on the dirt for the Derby at Santa Anita, the Grade 3 Sham.

Odds and Ends
The elimination of Wednesday cards for the first two months of the meet should help field size remain high, and avoiding the waiting game that plagued the cards towards the end of the last meet, when it took almost until Tuesday to get a Thursday card filled.

Blog favorite Tanda has still not worked after suffering a foot bruise, which caused her to miss the Grade 1 La Brea Stakes on opening day (though part of that is due to the inclement weather out here). Hopefully she will make it back to the track in time to get a prep in for what this blog hopes is a winning run in the Grade 1 Santa Monica Handicap on January 30.

While the weather may not keep them off the turf course for route races, the intense rain has knocked the downhill turf course out of action. The upper part of the course just has not had enough time to dry out so it can be used while not getting chewed up, especially since it is the beginning of the meet. Races on both the 26th and 27th were scrubbed due to this and with the rain on Saturday and the threat of rain on the Wednesday the 29th, it could realistically until 2011 until a race down the hill is run.

The new meet is a time for renewed hope. Hope that the surface is safe as possible and will hold up to the weather. Hope that "The Drought" finally ends and the Santa Anita Derby becomes a viable prep again. Hope that this sport can finally turn around out of its freefall. Hope that maybe, just maybe, a star can blossom right before our eyes that will surpass the beauty of that gorgeous backdrop of the San Gabriel Mountains. Good luck everybody.

(P.S. Thoughts about the 4 stakes on the opening day card will be offered in the comments)

Comma Drama in the CashCall

2010-12-19T10:07:00.000-08:00

Comma To The Top won a very soggy renewing of the Grade 1 CashCall Futurity, but not without a boatload of drama. In what ended up being a half-hour delay, Comma had a shoe issue that turned into an absolute debacle. First, the farrier did not have the right tool, so he had to go back and get it. Then, once he had the right tool and started to work on Comma, he was stepped on and was injured. A second farrier then had to be summoned to finish the job. The entire time this is happening, a steady rain was falling. All of the other horses in the field had been either standing or walking around the entire time, along with all the connections. (see photo) Now, the question has to be asked, why did they not scratch Comma To The Top, especially after the first farrier went down? My thoughts on why the stewards did not scratch him is:

The horse was the morning line and current favorite in a Grade 1 race: I would imagine that stewards would try to avoid at all cost to scratch a favorite in this magnitude of a race. Not only would it bring some bad press to the track, it would severely affect handle on the race and the multi-race exotics on what is technically the marquee race of the meet.
The delay was not the horse's fault: As explained above, the series of circumstances (wrong tools, the farrier getting injured, 2nd farrier needed) all were such long odds to happen one after the other in quick succession that there was no "clean break" point to scratch the horse. It was already at least 17 minutes into the delay when the second farrier had to be called, so the stewards were committed to see out the shoe repair.
Carry Gulch: Who? Carry Gulch was a Peter Miller trained horse (as is Comma To The Top) who was injured during the running of the Grade 1 Charles Whittingham Memorial Handicap back in June. Miller was incensed over how little time the field was given (3 minutes) to warm-up before the race. He was seething and mumbling to himself in the paddock while saddling his charge for the race after the Whittingham, and rightfully so. While Carry Gulch did survive his injuries, he will never race again. Now, while I'm not saying that the stewards were deliberately showing favoritism towards Miller, it may have been in the back of their mind when they decided not scratch the horse after the delay had gone on for some time. The coincidence that both wore the #10 saddle cloth in their respective races maybe was a fortuitous one, as it may have jogged the memory of what happened that day in June. (It did for me)

Comma To The Top put an exclamation on the drama-filled CashCall Futurity with his win. The connections dodged a bullet with his shoe issues and avoid being contracted from the race. His win gives him enough graded earnings to get into the gate the first Saturday in May. Why the stewards decided that Comma To The top deserved a chance to race no matter the length of the delay is up to debate, but it turned out to be the right one for him

Hustlin' for that Cash...Call Futurity Winner

2010-12-17T13:46:00.000-08:00

The road to the Kentucky Derby hits one of its early destinations, the Grade 1 $750,000 CashCall Futurity at Hollywood Park this Saturday. This Grade 1 race has been the stepping stone to such horses as Real Quiet, Point Given and last year's winner Lookin At Lucky. The $450,000 first place check all but guarantees a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate. The top two Southern California two year olds (Jaycito and Premier Pegasus) are skipping the race, so there is a chance for someone to take a big step forward toward the Derby dream. The locals must defend the turf from two east coast invaders. Let's get to the race.

The only Grade 1 winner in the field is #2 J P's Gusto. This winner of the G1 Del Mar Futurity comes out of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile where he was a well-beaten 6th. He finished a disappointing third in the Norfolk two races back, and appears to be beyond the scope of his abilities distance-wise. He loses his jockey to another horse in the race, and it looks like he will be nothing more than a pace factor.

The other two graded stakes winners are #7 Gourmet Dinner and #10 Comma to the Top. Each won a Grade 3 last time out, albeit on a surface different than today's race. Gourmet Dinner was a upset winner of the Delta Jackpot on dirt, while Comma To The Top was a gate-to-wire winner of the Generous. Comma has risen the class ladder all the way from the bottom (the maiden claiming ranks) to the top (Grade 1), with a 4 race win streak that includes a win over this track a part of the rise. Unfortunately, the ride ends here for him, as he will finally hit his class ceiling. As the favorite, he will take plenty of money, but with J P's Gusto and others harassing him on the lead, Comma looks very vulnerable. Gourmet Dinner had a quick blowout over the surface yesterday, and should be fine over the surface. Never finishing worst than second in his five lifetime races, he must use in the exotics. He will be coming from mid-pack under his regular jockey, who follows along from their home base of Calder (in Florida).

An interesting horse who will be a price is #8 Riveting Reason, after setting the pace (then backing up quickly) in the BC Juvenile, he came back to SoCal and broke his maiden. Before the Juvenile, he had finished third in the Norfolk and the Del Mar Futurity. He steps back up into stakes company, and should be sitting just behind the first flight of horses. He is a must use in the middle and lower rungs of the exotics. The only time he did not was the BC Juvenile. He gets the riding services of Alonzo Quinonez, who rides the other 2yo star of the barn, Premier Pegasus.

The main threat and the second choice on both the morning line and of this blog is #9 Industry Leader. This lightly raced son of Cherokee Run made his stakes debut in only his second start last time out, finishing second behind Premier Pegasus in the Hollywood Prevue. He has worked swiftly in the interim, and should have no problem with the distance. His trainer is very high on him, and he looks to set a good trip sitting in the second or third tier of runners.

The selection is #3 Rustler Hustler. This son of Ecton Park ships in from the east coast for his trainer Richard Dutrow. He has been working swiftly and steadily for his first start in 7 weeks. He won a race at this distance (but on the grass) last time out at Belmont. He manages to get top New York jockey Ramon Dominguez to take a break from his vacation to ride the horse. He should not have a problem with the synthetic, as he broke his maiden on the Tapeta at Presque Isle Downs. The only concern is that his trainer does not do will over the synthetic. (The maiden win was under a different trainer.) Rustler will be rolling from the back of the pack, and hopefully will show some 'hustle' and mow them all down.

Selections:
Rustler Hustler to win; Gourmet Dinner, Industry Leader & Riveting Reason underneath.

Will we see a horse give a breakout performance and thrust himself into the forefront of the Derby discussion? Will an east coast invader take the last grade 1 route race of the year? Can anyone stop Comma To the Top from making another 'possessive' statement of a victory? This field of two year olds have only upside to the them. But will that upside be enough? We will know by Saturday night. Good luck everybody!

I Just Can't

2010-12-05T09:36:00.000-08:00

(Added: I wrote this in one take, no editing, only spellcheck, so if it rambles or makes no sense in parts, i apologize in advance)

I just can't say goodbye to Zenyatta. I don't want her to leave. She has meant so much to me over her three years of racing. From her debut on Thanksgiving Day, where there were, at best, 4k in the crowd until he finale at Churchill, where more than 40x as much watched her across the nation. She kept me going during the tough times of 2008 and through the good times the last two years. She got me to do things I never would have done in the past. She dragged me onto blogs and Twitter and Facebook to see if there were others like me who loved her. She helped me become a more complete person.

I just can't say goodbye to Zenyatta. Seeing her live so many times makes one "spoiled by greatness". Her debut made a miserable Thanksgiving Day a little better. Her El Encino win made the antibiotics from the illness that I was dealing with a little more tolerable. Her BC Classic win made life a little better. Her Classic loss made being a fan of hers a little better, as she silenced many of doubters about her class and her ability. Her announced retirement made it a little easier with her losing, knowing she went out with a big effort.

I just can't say goodbye to Zenyatta. Literally. While the many of my horse racing "family" and horse fans in SoCal has gone to visit her on the backside at Hollywood Park the last month, I couldn't bring myself to do it. I can't let go, nor can I face her. My heart deals with the strain of knowing i "picked a favorite amongst my children" when I picked Blame over Zenyatta in the Classic. While I know that i made the correct decision, it still hurts me. I go today to Hollywood Park with a heavy heart, knowing she is leaving us in California one final time, never to return. I know when I look her in the eye, it will be of man who doubted her. I will see her leave and have to move on. But...

I just can't say goodbye to Zenyatta.

(Adding this video of one of my favorite groups Boyz II Men's song "Yesterday", as I think it sums up how I feel)

No Need to Cry Over The Matriarch

2010-11-26T08:12:00.000-08:00

Today begins the Hollywood Park Turf Festival, stretching three days and featuring 5 graded stakes, including the last two Grade 1 turf races this year. (For my thoughts on the rest of the turf festival, check them out in the Thorofan's Handicapper Corner) Today is the Grade 1 Matriarch for filles and mares going a flat mile on the grass. This race has fabulous fillies in its list of past winners such as Royal Heroine, Flawlessly and most recently Ventura. There is a compact field of 7, and appears to boil down to a two-horse race.

The favorite and the foreign invader:
#6 Special Duty looks to continue the dominance of Juddmonte in this race. They have been the owners of six out of the last thirteen winners, and look to have another strong entrant in this Hennessy filly. She ships in from Europe, and retains the services of top local jockey Rafael Bejarano. She brings in top form, as she finished only four and 1/4 lengths behind the world-class mare Goldikova last time out. She has not crossed the wire first this year, however, as both of her wins came via the stewards, as the winners were both disqualified from the top spot. She will be rolling late with her late kick from the back of the pack, but can she get to the pick?

The pick and the Texas invader:
#7 Wasted Tears is a hard-knocking speedball who goes to the lead and tells you to come and catch them. I have a fondness for this type of horse, especially when it is a mare on the grass. Last time out, she was uncharacteristically rated off the lead early on in the Grade 1 First Lady. She then went too swift to gain the lead going into the turn and stopped late, being defeated . Taken back to her home base, she has thrown several good works since and will problem revert to her front-running ways. Rajiv Maragh maintains the mount, and looks to atone for his mistake last time out. The field may catch her, but can they pass this game mare? This blog say "No."

This blog will have plenty of pictures for his wrap-up of the race (and the rest of the weekend races), as he is headed out to the track to finally see "Ten Top T-bred" Wasted Tears in person. Good luck this weekend everybody!

P.S. Time constraints prevented me from writing about the Grade 1 Clark Handicap, but I would be remiss if I didn't mention the pick #2 Apart aka Blame 2.0 aka Blame's successor. This son of Flatter has the same owner, trainer and breeder connections as Blame, and looks to carry the colors proudly in the Clark.

Happy Thanksgiving

2010-11-25T07:59:00.000-08:00

This blog wants to wish a Happy Thanksgiving to all of its readers, and may the holiday treat you well.

A few things I am thankful for this holiday:

I am thankful for Kevin Stafford, for without him, I would not have been dragged onto a more active role on social media. This time last year I just started to interact in this two venues, and they have made my life a richer, fuller experience. He also the reason I have this blog, as I finally got sick and tired of wasting all my good material in his comments. :-)

I am thankful for the members of #TeamBlame, the twitter faction that supported with me the 2010 BC Classic winner the entire year, with t-shirts to match. Steve, Brian, J.J, Dylan, Glenn, Ed, Connie, George, Kevin and Derek, thank you all for making being a fan of him a greater experience.

I am thankful for Zenyatta and Blame, who made this year an experience I will never forget. Form the travels to the crowd the emotional rollercoaster, it was worth every single minute of it.

I am thankful for those horses who were on the triple crown trail who I have cursed with my following of them coming back to the races off a long absence. William's Kitten is steadily working for a return, while Flat Out has made a recovery from his shoulder crack suffered either in or just after the 2009 Arkansas Derby. He makes his comeback from that race in today's 10th @ Churchill Downs. May he have a long and healthy career. (Hope he runs well, but he is in tough against Wise Dan in there, so will just watch and wait.)

Most of all, I am thankful for all of you for reading this blog. without your feedback and support it wouldn't be worth it. Happy Thanksgiving!

(P.S. A little bonus pick for the day. In Hollywood Park's 5th race, I like #10 U Turn Me Crazy to win from just off the pace.)

The Blame Countdown!

2010-11-17T15:11:00.000-08:00

"Welcome back to the Blame countdown on Klay-born Radio, KLBN. If you're just joining us, here's a recap of the songs 5 through 2:

#5 "You Can Put The Blame on Me" (from the Akon song of the same name)

Im sorry that it took so long to see
They were dead wrong trying to beat me.
Im sorry for the hand that she was dealt
For the embarrassment that she felt.
Im sorry for Club Zen getting shut down
I hope they manage better next time around.
Why doesnt anybody wanna take blame
For rising back out disgracing my name.
Im just a horse trying to entertain
Because I love my fans Ill take that blame.

#4 No Blame (to the song "No Rain" by Blind Melon)

All I can say is that my life is pretty plain
I like watchin' the puddles gather rain
And all I can do is just win a race or two
and speak my point of view
But it's not sane, It's not sane
And I don't understand why I sleep all day
And they start to complain that there's no Blame
Blame...Blame....Blame.....
All I can say is that my life is pretty plain
ya don't like my fan's point of view
ya think their insane
Its not sane......it's not sane.

#3 Do You Really Want To Blame Me (to the song "Do You Really Want To Hurt Me" by Culture Club)

Do you really want to Blame me
Do you really want to make them cry
Precious kisses, words that burn me
Haters never ask you why
In my heart the fire's burning
Win the big race, be a star
Precious people always tell me
That's a step, a step too far.
Do you really want to Blame me
Do you really want to make them cry
Do you really want to Blame me
Just because I won and made them cry

#2 Forget About Blame (to the song "Forgot About Dre" by Dr. Dre f/Eminem)

Nowadays everybody wanna talk like they got something to say
But nothin' comes out when they move they lips
Just a bunch of gibberish
And them fans act like they forgot about Blame.

There's your recap. Here is your brand new #1, drumroll please (drumroll) to the theme of Fame, (originally sung by Irene Cara) Blame!:

Will you look at me
And tell me what you see.
You ain't seen the best of me yet
Give me time, I'll make you forget the rest.
I've got more in me, and I will set it free
I can catch the moon in my hand
Don't you know who I am?
Remember my name

Chorus:

BLAME!

I'm gonna live forever
I'm gonna learn how to fly (High)
I feel it coming together
People will see me and cry (Blame)
I'm gonna win me the photo
Light up the sky like a flame (Blame)
I'm gonna live forever
And you'll remember my name

Remember, Remember, Remember, Remember, Remember, Remember, Remember, Remember

Will you hold my reins
Cause you can control my gains
I can shoot right straight to the top
Show me the stick and take all I got to give
Baby I'll be tough
Too much is not enough
You can ride me until I break
Ooh, I got what it takes.

BLAME!

I'm gonna live forever
I'm gonna learn how to fly (High)
I feel it coming together
People will see me and die (Blame)
I'm gonna win me the photo
Light up the sky like a flame (Blame)
I'm gonna live forever
And you'll remember my name

Remember, Remember, Remember, Remember, Remember, Remember, Remember, Remember

(repeat chorus while fading out)

"There's your #1 right there folks. A great tribute to a horse who no one will ever forget his name. Talk to you next week folks!"

I was SO right. Yet why do i feel SO wrong?

2010-11-10T17:39:00.000-08:00

Let's get the bragging out of the way. I was right about the Breeders' Cup Classic. WAY right. Blame won, like I have been preaching from the mountaintops the entire year. He beat Zenyatta in a thrilling photo, just as I predicted on the previous blog post. Lookin at Lucky finished off the board (just barely), as I have repeatedly said on Twitter. I should be on the top of the world, celebrating my predictions.

Yet I am not.

I know I watched from Hollywood Park what may end being the most emotional, gut-wrenching, heart-stopping race of my life. The only two horses who have ever impelled and inspired me to go out of my comfort zone of "the greater Los Angeles area" to see them run (whether it be in San Diego or New York). The two horses who a large piece of my heart, who I would become nothing more than a shell of a man if something happened to them. Those two horses ended facing one another, and I chose sides, somehow being able to keep my emotions in check for one brief moment of clarity. Yet I hoped if I had to be wrong, I was wrong just a little. But I was right. I should be throwing money around like it was going out of style.

Yet I am not.

Why? That is for another blog. But the part that I will mention is that rumors of Blame's demise via a quarter crack was the final straw that broke my already tenuous hold on sane reasoning, caused from the combination of life, Breeders' Cup and school all asking for my time. All of that lead me not to bet, but to just watch as a spectator. That I did, wearing my Blame shirt, my Blue TVG hat and my gray shorts, in fall contrast to the sea of pink and green signifying Zenyatta's fans. I knew I was one of the few who was going against the queen. After Blame successfully usurp the BC Classic throne away from the queen, I gave a couple of fist pumps, and a couple of gloating tweets about my prognostication. But that was all I could muster before an onrush of mixed emotion enveloped me. I should be happy that I was able to at least put into words my happiness over being right, in that moment.

Yet I am not.

I had to wait several days to write this post, to even try to understand and control my thoughts into something workable for the printed page. My mind was a swirl of happiness and sadness and excitement and depression, confusing me in a such a way that it took this long to fall back into at least some sense of normalcy. This post is more or less an odd of way saying thank you to both Blame and Zenyatta, as they mean so much to me that they made me do, see, feel things that I probably would not have done. I should be happy in how much they have, indirectly as it may seems, helped me turn into a better person.

Yet I am not.

Zenyatta was the first horse in a long time that I fell hard for on more than a paper level. From witnessing her maiden win live, to leaving an ER to see her El Encino win, to helping me understand the game is more than the gambling aspect (via her 2009 BC Classic win). That win made me realize that this game was more than about the big score, the life-changing payoff, the fact that ever time you were cashing a ticket it means you defeat all of those other people, it was about the horses. Her win was a "game-changer", so to speak. So to cheer more for someone else than her hurt me more than a little. But the one who I cheered for was more than a passing fancy. So I should be happy that she ran a huge race, yet did not win.

Yet I am not.

Blame was the horse who piqued my interest in a defeat of all things. His Super Derby second caught my eye, when I all I was watching the race for was to see how the track was playing after William's Kitten snapped my attention to the TV with his win earlier on the card. I love horses who don't give in, even if they are beat. His win in the Fayette validated my initial thought on him, and the Clark victory sealed in the love. The Blame Facebook page followed in the spring, when the time drew near for his first race of the season. I tried not once, not twice, but three times to see him in person, but each time the plans fell through. Finally this blog decided that enough is enough, and made the fateful trip to Belmont. Seeing Blame in person was worth the wait, even if this blog did not get a picture of him. But the trip ended being up so much more than just the horse, it was about the people, the experiences, the change. He made me move myself to a better place personally, socially, spiritually. They both did. So I should be happy that they both ran a huge race, and ran one-two, well clear of the others.

Yet I am not.

My heart, my mind, my entire being is filled with happiness over being right in the Classic, that the fact that ran their best and that they both came back safe from the race. My heart, my mind, my entire being is also filled with sadness over their retirement, their being no chance of a rematch and that they both will never be on a track again. The joy and pain of having the two horses that occupy a place in a person's heart going against each other in combat, with only one of them being able to declare victory on the day, is a feeling that many will never experience. But I would rather suffered through all of the agony and the ecstasy of the ride than never have experienced any of it. The change in my life brought upon these two is unquantifiable. Many would be ashamed by this post, and how i have claimed ownership over two things that I have nothing more than an emotional attachment to them.

Yet I am not.