Drought Report - Time to Find Out Who Will Try To Be The Drought Breaker

Santa Anita Derby Day is here, and the time to find out who will be the one to try to end the 22 year-long drought is upon us. With the news that Santa Anita Derby favorite, blog favorite and this blog's choice to break the drought Premier Pegasus off the trail with a hairline fracture, and that Jaycito is also out of the race with a foot issue, the race is wide open for someone to take advantage and punch their ticket to the Kentucky Derby. The three horses who look the likeliest to take advantage of the top two's absence are Silver Medallion, Anthony's Cross and Mr. Commons. Let's break down these three.

Silver Medallion won the El Camino Real Derby last time out in a driving finish, closing off a suspect pace. He has worked well in the interim since the race, and his pedigree does not suggest any problem with the distance. He picks up Garrett Gomez to ride him in the race. While he has never ran on the dirt, he has trained well over the main track. He should sit a stalking trip off of Comma To The Top and Midnight Interlude, and look to take over turning for home. He will vie for favoritism, and he will be this blog's selection for the race. This blog thought he would finish a clear second behind PrePeg going in, and with his defection, this blog will move him up to the top spot. He needs a 1-2 finish to assure himself a spot in the gate on May 7th.

Anthony's Cross (right) won the Robert B Lewis Stakes last out in game fashion over Riveting Reason. He has improved each and every start, and the addition of blinkers help kept him focus on his task. His swift works in the interim (not the norm for his trainer Eoin Harty) and the services of Joel Rosario add to his appeal. He has won at the distance, so today's 1m & 1/8 should not be a problem. He figures to be sitting even with Silver Medallion in a stalking position. This blog respects his form, but thinks he might be just a cut below. His inability to put away Riveting Reason, who is a solid horse but not the gamest animal, is a major red flag. He will be tested today. He needs a 1-2-3 finish to assure himself of a spot in the gate on May 7th.

The third contender is Mr. Commons. This son of Artie Schiller built on his stylish maiden win on the grass in an allowance race last time on the dirt. He won a one mile race, grinding his way to victory. He has worked smartly since the race, popping bullet after bullet, which is not his trainer's style. The private clockers in southern California raved about his 7 furlong work on March 28th, oohing and aahing over its quality. His pedigree does not scream dirt, but he handled it fine. He figures to lay mid-pack in the race and make a run in the stretch. His trainer John Shireffs knows his way around the Derby picture, winning it with Giacomo in 2005. This blog thinks that while the hype is understandable, he may struggle against this type. The allowance field he beat in that win was not the strongest, as several have struggled in stakes competition, and the third place finisher Chiloquin broke his maiden for a tag. He would need to win the race to get into the gate come the first Saturday in May.

Others who have faint Derby aspirations are Bench Points, who ran a distant third in the San Felipe Stakes behind PrePeg and Jaycito, snapping his undefeated streak. He would need to run 1-2 to get in the Derby. Indian Winter, who looks to bounce back after a questionable effort in the Turf Paradise Derby. He would need to win to get in.

This Santa Anita Derby has lost some luster due to the top two abdicating, but this leaves open a new threat to gain the throne. Who will step up and earn the precious graded stakes earnings? Who will step up and take the mantle of Drought Breaker and place it upon themselves to break the drought? Can that horse break the drought? We shall see? Good luck everybody!

Santa Anita Derby Undercard Stakes Thoughts

Santa Anita Day brings together a solid card of action in support of the big race. Three graded stakes will help enhance the big day. First, older female sprinters will go down the hill in the Las Cienegas Handicap. Then older males go a mile on the grass in the Grade 2 Arcadia Stakes. Then three year old filles will go a mile and an eighth on the grass in the Grade 2 Providencia Stakes. Throw in the appearance of First Dude in allowance race (finally!) and this card lends good support to a big day. Let's start with the Las Cienegas Handicap.

This Grade 3 race down the hillside turf course marks the 2011 return of blog favorite Tanda, who has not raced since her trouble-filled third in the 2010 Grade 1 Acorn Stakes. She is two-for-three down the hill, with her only loss coming when she finished second to Rose Catherine, who would go on to be the second betting choice in the 2010 Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint. Tanda struggled to shake a foot bruise this winter, which cause her to miss the Grade 1's La Brea Stakes and Santa Monica Stakes earlier in the meet. She is over the issue, and has been working regularly towards this race. She may not be fully cranked, as this could be a prep race for something down the road, such as the Grade 1 Humana Distaff on the Kentucky Derby undercard. But the favorite will be Unzip Me. This daughter of City Zip owns this turf course, with 5 wins in 6 races, with her only lose the being her first race down the hill. She has been undefeated against females in her last 11 starts, with her only two losses being against males. She already won two stakes down the hill this meet. Her success causes her to tote 127 lbs. today, 8 more than Tanda and 10-12 more than the rest of her competitors. She figures to be right upfront, and will try to continue her winning ways. These two tower over the field, and figure to dominate the wagering.

The next stake is Grade 2 Arcadia. Caracortado (right) will be the favorite to once again hold off Jeranimo, who he has bested twice this meet. "Scarface" is coming off a narrow defeat in the G1 Kilroe Mile last out. He seems to have maintained his fitness. He figures to rally from off the pace. Jeranimo will try once again to turn the tables on him. He worked well in the interim, and reunites with top jock Rafael Bejarano (who was on the winner in the Kilroe). Both will have to catch Liberian Freighter, who figures to get an easy lead. He threw in a clunker last time against the top two, but maybe was a little too fresh off the 3 month layoff. He comes back with three steady works, and should be able to control the tempo on the front end. He is a dangerous threat to wire this field.

The last undercard stake is the Grade 2 Providencia Stakes. These three year old fillies go a mile an one-eighth, a distance no one in the field has gone. Five of the 9 entrants begin their career across the pond in Europe. The favorite will be Cambina. This diminutive filly with the powerful kick won the last two stakes for this group, the Grade 3 La Habra and the China Doll Stakes. She blasts from the back of the pack, and her two works in the interim shows she has not lost a step. So Belle ran a good race in her first race in the U.S. last out, finishing second. Her pedigree suggests that the added distance will not be a problem. She figures to stalk a solid past in her 2nd start in the states. An interesting longshot is Hard To Resist (right). This daughter of Johannesburg rolled from the back of the pack into a slow pace to break her maiden last time out. She has maintained her good form since, and keeps leading rider Joel Rosario in the irons.

So there are some thoughts on the Santa Anita Derby undercard stakes. These races provide some good support to the feature. Can Tanda return to form off the layoff? Can Jeranimo finally turn the tables on Caracortado? Can Cambina keep it rolling? We shall see. Good luck everybody.

Meteore: 1/15/2006 - 4/2/2011

Grade 2 winner Meteore broke down today in the 8th race at Golden Gate. He fractured his right front ankle as they were headed into the first turn in the one mile race. The Richard Mandella trainee was a blog favorite, in no small part due to the picture above. This picture was taken at Hollywood Park in the saddling enclosure on November 27th, 2010. He was running in the Grade 2 Citation Handicap, where he finished third. He shall be missed.

(This blog will be added to as needed. I'm a little too distraught over this to put together a cohesive post.)