The big one of the meet is finally upon the Great Race Place. The Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby is the local prep for the Kentucky Derby next month. Such past horses as Sunday Silence, Point Given, A.P. Indy and Affirmed have won this race on their way to later greatness. The last horse to win a Triple Crown race after running in the race is dual champion Lookin at Lucky, who finished 3rd in 2010, then went on the win the Preakness. The last horse to run in the Santa Anita Derby and win the Kentucky Derby was Giacomo in 2005, who was 4th in Arcadia before being first in Louisville. It has been 23 years since a horse has won the Santa Anita Derby and gone on to wear the roses, all the way back in 1989 when Sunday Silence pulled the double. That drought is the longest among ANY of the major preps, and the reason this blog calls the search for the Santa Anita Derby winner the "Drought Report". This year's group of ten runners stretch from a grade 1 winner to a horse with just one start.
The favorite is the multiple graded stakes winner Creative Cause. The winner of the last prep for today's race, the San Felipe, he has been on top of the local division for many months. He built off his 3rd in the San Vicente Stakes to win that race. His works since that race have shown plenty of life and that he has plenty of energy in the tank. His pedigree does not suggests that the nine furlongs of the race will be a problem at all. The only member of the field who is guaranteed a spot in the gate come the first Saturday of May due to his significant graded stakes earnings, so that must be taken into account on whether he will be ridden all out for the win. This idea is bolstered by the fact that his trainer Mike Harrington decided to take the blinkers off of him for the first time in his career. Better to experiment now rather than in the biggest race of the year. With the blinker removal, will Creative Cause be further back than normal off the pace.
I'll Have Another shocked the world when he rocked the field in a stylish win in the Robert B. Lewis at 43-1 two months ago. His connections decided that he needed rest to combat the big effort, pointing to this race since the win. He has several solid works, including a dazzling workout in between races on Santa Anita Handicap day. His trainer Doug O'Neill is high on his charge as O'Neill looks for his first win ever in the race. His pedigree suggests that the extra distance will not be a hint of a problem, as his family is filled with stamina-filled types. He needs a decent chunk of graded stakes earnings to earn a spot in the Kentucky Derby gate with only $151k in the kitty so far. A first or second would guarantee a trip, but a 3rd place finish ($90k) will lead to a few sleepless nights from worrying.
Bob Baffert fires three bullets in an attempt to add to his record 6 wins in this race with Liaison, Paynter and Blueskiesnrainbows. Liasion is the only one of the three to have any graded stakes earnings whatsoever, and he has enough to have already secured a spot in the gate next month. He has slowly been coming along this year, rebounding from a poor effort (before he fell) in the Lewis with a decent 4th in San Felipe. He seems to have maybe not progressed from his stellar 2yo efforts, but he will get the chance to change that perception. Paynter has but one flashy start at five and half furlongs 7 weeks ago. He worked mostly across town (usually not a good sign) since the race. This feels like "too much, too soon" for a colt who looks like he has a bright future. The way he acted up while schooling this week leads one to believe he would appreciate the time to grow up mentally. Blueskiesnrainbows comes off a drubbing two months ago in an allowance race won by his stablemate Fed Biz. He appears to be in the race as a pace presence.
The others are Longview Drive ( 3rd in the Sham, lacks a real running style); Senor Rain (distance limitations, pace presence); Midnight Transfer (3rd in San Felipe, working well but has physical make-up of a sprinter/miler) and Brother Francis (Still a maiden, but has over $120k in graded earnings).
This blog thinks that Blueskiesnrainbows and Senor Rain duel on the front end, I'll Have Another earns another great trip and kicks clear turning for home. Creative Cause ends up second, with Liaison and Midnight Transfer fighting for third.
This figures to be a good race, and whomever ends up winning will carry the mantle of the "Drought Breaker" to Kentucky to end the near quarter-century drought. Good luck folks.
Showing posts with label Brother Francis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Brother Francis. Show all posts
Saturday, April 7, 2012
Thursday, January 12, 2012
Drought Report 2012 - First Update
With the first graded stake at Santa Anita for the Derby group run, now would be a good time to give a brief look at many of the possible horses who could carry the mantle of the "Drought Breaker" to Kentucky the first Saturday in May. This list comprises a mix of grade one winners, other stakes winners, flashy maiden winners and a maiden. The colts are a diverse group of pedigrees, from sprint-leaning to run-all-day types. Some will be pointing to the sprint (San Vicente), while others will be headed toward the Lewis for their next start, with a few hoping to get that elusive allowance race to fill. Let us take a look.
Note: This post was intended to run before the Sham, as a way to introduce everyone to this group of 3yos, but due to "blog operator failure" it is coming out now instead.
Sky Kingdom gets the first nod solely because he will be the first to race among this group, as the ever elusive first level allowance race was used as the 2nd race on 1/12, even though it only had five entrants (two of them being Baffert trainees). This son of Empire Maker broke his maiden when he stretched out to two turns two starts back across town at Hollywood Park. He followed that up with a solid 4th in the Grade 1 Hollywood Futurity. He will be making his first start on dirt today, even though he has been working over the surface since October. His connections are hoping to take advantage of this rarely run condition to get this charge some more experience before tackling stakes once again. With his pedigree, the Derby distance will not be a problem, as his sire is a Belmont winner and his damsire is a well-known provider of stamina. His works haven't been the lightning quick spins his trainer is known for, but they are still solid works.
Brother Francis gets the next nod because he is entered in a maiden special weight on the grass for this Saturday (1/14). He closed strongly in a MSW and in the G3 Hollywood Prevue to finish 2nd in both races. He then followed it up with a fast-closing third in the G1 Hollywood Futurity. This son of Lion Heart is out of a mare who has plenty of distance in her pedigree, and the sire has produced a 12f winner in BC Turf winner Dangerous Midge. His connections obviously want to get a win while keeping him around two turns, and with the track playing with the way it has (favoring on or near the lead types), they have chosen to go the turf in order to get a win. He has worked in trainer's preferred steady manner since the Futurity.
Liaison won the aforementioned G1 Hollywood Futurity over Rousing Sermon. These two made up the exacta in the Real Quiet Stakes as well. Liaison has three solid 5 furlongs workouts since the race, and is most likely pointing to the G2 Robert Lewis stakes in February. Rousing Sermon has worked four times since the race and could be pointing to the same race, though it is possible that either could ship out of town for their next race. Here is a replay of the Hollywood Futurity:
Creative Cause is coming off a third in the G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile last time out. He took some time off the work tab after the race to freshen up for the Derby trail, and did not work until New Year's Eve. He is building towards his first start later in the meet, either the Lewis or the San Felipe. He should have little problem stretching out going forward, being by Giant's Causeway out of a mare who hit the board multiple times going nine furlongs. His stable and owner-mate Empire Way is a full brother to the multiple Grade 1 winning filly ROYAL DELTA, who will most likely wins this year's Eclipse award for 3yo fillies. With her successes going very long, he should not have any trouble with this distance, though he does need to improve to contend with the better runners out here, as he missed the board in both his stakes attempts after his win. He has 3 solid works since the last race. His sister improved as the year went on, so maybe he will as well.
Trainer Steve Asmussen has a few Derby hopefuls as well. Even though his only trainee who is guaranteed a spot in the gate for the Kentucky Derby Sabercat didn't make the trip, he still has such up and comers as Wharton, Unbridled's Note, along with stakes placed Daddy Nose Best. The first two are coming off of maiden special weight wins on the first Stars of Tomorrow card at Churchill Downs. They both are training steadily here and will be looking to make their next start at some point towards the middle of the meet. Daddy Nose Best flopped as the chalk in the Eddie Logan Stakes, but his pedigree says that he should be fine routing on the dirt, something he has never done before. With a dearth of turf stakes in SoCal on the schedule, the connections will most likely find out whether he can truly dirt or not very soon,
Out of Bounds is the last one we will talk about, as he just won the G3 Sham Stakes going a mile at 10-1. He came out of the race very well according to his connections, with plenty of energy. His connections have stated that he will be pointed to the Grade 2 San Felipe in March for his next start. As discussed in the last post, his chances to get 9 furlongs are strong, but that 10f in May will be a bit of challenge. We wish him and all of those on this list good luck and to stay healthy.
These are just a few of the possible horses who could be the one to earn the "Drought Breaker" mantle come the first Saturday in April. It could even be a horse who has not even made a single start yet, like last year's winner Midnight Interlude, who would not make his debut until the end of January. Whomever wins the Santa Anita Derby will earn the right to end the 23 year long streak. Good luck out there.
Note: This post was intended to run before the Sham, as a way to introduce everyone to this group of 3yos, but due to "blog operator failure" it is coming out now instead.
Sky Kingdom gets the first nod solely because he will be the first to race among this group, as the ever elusive first level allowance race was used as the 2nd race on 1/12, even though it only had five entrants (two of them being Baffert trainees). This son of Empire Maker broke his maiden when he stretched out to two turns two starts back across town at Hollywood Park. He followed that up with a solid 4th in the Grade 1 Hollywood Futurity. He will be making his first start on dirt today, even though he has been working over the surface since October. His connections are hoping to take advantage of this rarely run condition to get this charge some more experience before tackling stakes once again. With his pedigree, the Derby distance will not be a problem, as his sire is a Belmont winner and his damsire is a well-known provider of stamina. His works haven't been the lightning quick spins his trainer is known for, but they are still solid works.
Brother Francis gets the next nod because he is entered in a maiden special weight on the grass for this Saturday (1/14). He closed strongly in a MSW and in the G3 Hollywood Prevue to finish 2nd in both races. He then followed it up with a fast-closing third in the G1 Hollywood Futurity. This son of Lion Heart is out of a mare who has plenty of distance in her pedigree, and the sire has produced a 12f winner in BC Turf winner Dangerous Midge. His connections obviously want to get a win while keeping him around two turns, and with the track playing with the way it has (favoring on or near the lead types), they have chosen to go the turf in order to get a win. He has worked in trainer's preferred steady manner since the Futurity.
Liaison won the aforementioned G1 Hollywood Futurity over Rousing Sermon. These two made up the exacta in the Real Quiet Stakes as well. Liaison has three solid 5 furlongs workouts since the race, and is most likely pointing to the G2 Robert Lewis stakes in February. Rousing Sermon has worked four times since the race and could be pointing to the same race, though it is possible that either could ship out of town for their next race. Here is a replay of the Hollywood Futurity:
Creative Cause is coming off a third in the G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile last time out. He took some time off the work tab after the race to freshen up for the Derby trail, and did not work until New Year's Eve. He is building towards his first start later in the meet, either the Lewis or the San Felipe. He should have little problem stretching out going forward, being by Giant's Causeway out of a mare who hit the board multiple times going nine furlongs. His stable and owner-mate Empire Way is a full brother to the multiple Grade 1 winning filly ROYAL DELTA, who will most likely wins this year's Eclipse award for 3yo fillies. With her successes going very long, he should not have any trouble with this distance, though he does need to improve to contend with the better runners out here, as he missed the board in both his stakes attempts after his win. He has 3 solid works since the last race. His sister improved as the year went on, so maybe he will as well.
Trainer Steve Asmussen has a few Derby hopefuls as well. Even though his only trainee who is guaranteed a spot in the gate for the Kentucky Derby Sabercat didn't make the trip, he still has such up and comers as Wharton, Unbridled's Note, along with stakes placed Daddy Nose Best. The first two are coming off of maiden special weight wins on the first Stars of Tomorrow card at Churchill Downs. They both are training steadily here and will be looking to make their next start at some point towards the middle of the meet. Daddy Nose Best flopped as the chalk in the Eddie Logan Stakes, but his pedigree says that he should be fine routing on the dirt, something he has never done before. With a dearth of turf stakes in SoCal on the schedule, the connections will most likely find out whether he can truly dirt or not very soon,
Out of Bounds is the last one we will talk about, as he just won the G3 Sham Stakes going a mile at 10-1. He came out of the race very well according to his connections, with plenty of energy. His connections have stated that he will be pointed to the Grade 2 San Felipe in March for his next start. As discussed in the last post, his chances to get 9 furlongs are strong, but that 10f in May will be a bit of challenge. We wish him and all of those on this list good luck and to stay healthy.
These are just a few of the possible horses who could be the one to earn the "Drought Breaker" mantle come the first Saturday in April. It could even be a horse who has not even made a single start yet, like last year's winner Midnight Interlude, who would not make his debut until the end of January. Whomever wins the Santa Anita Derby will earn the right to end the 23 year long streak. Good luck out there.
Wednesday, November 23, 2011
A Hollywood Prevue to a Star?
The stakes action starts off this Thanksgiving weekend at the track of the lakes and flowers with the Grade 3 Hollywood Prevue on Turkey Day. Going seven furlongs over the synthetic main track, this race is a prep for next month's Grade 1 Hollywood Futurity. This race in its past boasted winners such as Afternoon Deelites, Lion Heart and champion 2yo Declan's Moon, along with blog favorite Premier Pegasus. A possible star could break out with a strong performance. The field is a nice mix of stakes-tried horses and new shooters with buzz surrounding them. Let go over the field of eight, based on how they figure to run their respective races.
The probable front flight will consist of Sweet Swap, Hodge and So Brilliant (right). Sweet Swap dueled on the lead but faded late last time out in the Jack Goodman Stakes. The winner, Secret Circle, won the inaugural Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint next out. This full brother of Sidney's Candy will look to clear off from the rail. Hodge broke his maiden last time in a gate-to-wire effort while under pressure the entire time. He comes back in only 19 days off that huge effort, but he does have a good work in the interim. So Brilliant dueled early and cleared off to win as a heavily bet favorite in his debut lat month at Santa Anita. He has had four strong works, though why he had one work at Hollywood, then shipped back to SA to work is a bit odd.
The horses sitting in the second flight, about 2-4 lengths back, figure to be Sheer Talent and Mucho Besos. Sheer Talent looks to bounce back after a subpar effort up at Golden Gate. His trainer Dan Hendricks brings him back off on short rest for the race and looks to be the one to "inherit" the lead if/when the speed backs up. Mucho Besos will try to jump off from an maiden claiming win to a graded stakes win. This looks like it might be too much of a step up, though he could get a slice if he gets the trip and one of the closers doesn't fire.
Galex, Empire Way and Brother Francis are the last three in the field. Galex ran 2nd in the Jack Goodman Stakes (beating Sweet Swap in the process) by laying back and making one run. While he did pass the other 4 horses in the field, he lost ground on the winner in the last 8th. He did win his debut gate-to-wire, but he figures to sit off the pace in here. He does have several good stamina building works here. Empire Way won his maiden stylishly 11 days ago rolling by the field from the back. This full brother to multiple grade 1 winner Royal Delta appears to be in this race as more of a building block for the Hollywood Futurity according to his trainer's comments. His trainer also has a less-than-stellar record coming back on short rest (less than 14 days) with a two year old. Brother Francis started slow in his debut but closed quickly to just miss behind Hodge. He should improve with the extra distance, and does have two good works since, but he has never been over a synthetic surface either. He could show more positional speed with a clean break. "Brother" does have history working against him, as in the last twenty years no horse has broken his maiden in this race.
This is a tough race because I can see any number of these winning, but the tepid pick is Sheer Talent to pull an upset. It looks like there is enough speed for the front-runners to be softened up and allow him to "inherit" the lead in the stretch and hold off the closers.
Good luck and happy Thanksgiving everybody!
The horses sitting in the second flight, about 2-4 lengths back, figure to be Sheer Talent and Mucho Besos. Sheer Talent looks to bounce back after a subpar effort up at Golden Gate. His trainer Dan Hendricks brings him back off on short rest for the race and looks to be the one to "inherit" the lead if/when the speed backs up. Mucho Besos will try to jump off from an maiden claiming win to a graded stakes win. This looks like it might be too much of a step up, though he could get a slice if he gets the trip and one of the closers doesn't fire.
Galex, Empire Way and Brother Francis are the last three in the field. Galex ran 2nd in the Jack Goodman Stakes (beating Sweet Swap in the process) by laying back and making one run. While he did pass the other 4 horses in the field, he lost ground on the winner in the last 8th. He did win his debut gate-to-wire, but he figures to sit off the pace in here. He does have several good stamina building works here. Empire Way won his maiden stylishly 11 days ago rolling by the field from the back. This full brother to multiple grade 1 winner Royal Delta appears to be in this race as more of a building block for the Hollywood Futurity according to his trainer's comments. His trainer also has a less-than-stellar record coming back on short rest (less than 14 days) with a two year old. Brother Francis started slow in his debut but closed quickly to just miss behind Hodge. He should improve with the extra distance, and does have two good works since, but he has never been over a synthetic surface either. He could show more positional speed with a clean break. "Brother" does have history working against him, as in the last twenty years no horse has broken his maiden in this race.
This is a tough race because I can see any number of these winning, but the tepid pick is Sheer Talent to pull an upset. It looks like there is enough speed for the front-runners to be softened up and allow him to "inherit" the lead in the stretch and hold off the closers.
Good luck and happy Thanksgiving everybody!
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