Belmont Stakes Card Thoughts - There Shall Be Much Rejoicing

Belmont Stakes day is here, and even though there is no chance for a triple crown alive, it figures to be a good day of racing. Both the Preakness and the Derby winner show up to the Belmont, which is a rarity. The undercard is solid, with multiple Eclipse award winning Gio Ponti going in the Manhattan, multiple Grade 1 winner Turbulent Descent in the Acorn and some tough races to handicap. Let's get to right to the stakes action, starting with the first stake on the docket.

Grade 1 TVG Acorn Stakes - 1 mile - 3yo fillies

The only question in this blog's mind is by how many lengths will #2 Turbulent Descent (right) win. She is the classiest horse in the field, she has been training great, she can adapt to any situation and she looks to flourish at this one-turn mile. The horse she will have to catch is #3 Savvy Supreme, who will be winging on the lead. While she is fast, she is stretching out two whole furlongs and is taking a big step up in class to graded stakes for the first time. The only other graded stakes winner in the field is #5 Victoria's Wildcat, who rode the closer-friendly track and insane fractions to victory in the Grade 3 Eight Belles S. at Churchill Downs on Oaks day. Honestly, Turbulent Descent should roll over this field, with Victoria's Wildcat being the best of the rest, several lengths back.

The Play:
Exacta 2/5; Trifecta 2/5/ALL

Grade 2 True North Handicap - 6 furlongs - 3yo & up

This blog decided that this race was not for him in any way, shape or form. This race will not be played at all other than a single of the favorite #3 Trappe Shot in the "lotto" Pick 6 ticket. Trappe Shot comes into this race off a win, defeating both D'Funnybone and Rule by Night (who are also in the race). He has two steady maintenance drills since the last race and he has a good chance to get his first graded stakes win of his career. If the budget allowed it, the entry would be used, and it is the the main danger. D'Funnybone comes in third off the layoff after running second to Trappe Shot last time after setting the pace almost the hole way. He figures to be doing the same once again today, with his entry-mate This One For Phil looking to take advantage if 'D' can't finish the job. He won his first race in 14 months last time out, has put in two solid works and looks to win his first graded stakes outright, after being put up via DQ in his only other stakes start.

The Play:
For multi-race purposes only, 1/1a & 3

Grade 2 Woody Stephens S - 7 Furlongs - 3yo

Another competitive race as three year old sprinters hook up going 7/8ths. Very tepid choice top choice is #5 Arch Traveler. This son of Sky Mesa bounced back on the winning trail after a poor effort in the Florida Derby at a distance that was not his optimal. Cutting back to a one-turn race last time out, he easily won an overnight stake handily. He has two smart works since the race, and will offer a little value to the favorite as the second choice. The other being used is the favorite #1 Travelin Man, who was against a speed bias in the Derby Trial and cuts back a furlong and #7 J J's Lucky Train, who comes back after an okay 3rd in the aforementioned Derby Trial, where he may have bounced after coming back in 3 weeks while shipping to Churchill.

The Play:
For the Pick 4: #1, #5, #7

Grade 1 Foxwoods Just A Game Handicap - 1 mile (turf) - 3yo & up fillies and mares

This is where this blog takes a stand with a 12/1 shot who is the co-2nd longest shot on the board in #8 Much Rejoicing. This daughter of Distorted Humor won her turf debut last time out at 6f here at Belmont in nice fashion. Being a daughter of BC F&M Turf winner Soaring Softly, it is not much of shock she taken to the surface. She has been best around one turn in her career. This is the first time she has ever strung together three races in her career, she is training well and looks primed to cause some tote damage at long odds. The favorite will probably be #2 Aviate, who this blog like in the CD Turf Mile last time out. Her connections won this race last year with Proviso. She has had two solid works since her win and looks tough, but how will she take to the one turn? #6 Fantasia finished third in the race Aviate comes out of last time. She finished fifth in this race last year, but her only win in the states was at this distance around one turn at Woodbine on a yielding course. If the chance of rain proves true, a less-than-firm course would do her well. #1 Gypsy's Warning is the only grade one winner in the field, but she ran a flat 7th behind Fantasia in the Jenny Wiley in April. If she wins, maybe it is sign to come for her connections, the same as Animal Kingdom.

The Play:
Large percentage of bankroll win bet on #8, single in P4

Grade 1 Woodford Reserve Manhattan Handicap - 1m 1/4 (turf) - 3yo and up

Multiple Eclipse Award winner #4 Gio Ponti looks to bounce back from another close loss in the Dubai World Cup and get his second victory in the race. He won in 2009, and finished 2nd last year. He seems to have bounced back better than last year from his overseas adventure, with four good works. #6 Viscount Nelson invades from over the pond for trainer Aidan O'Brien. He won just 8 days ago in Europe, but has a class advantage over the rest, finishing last year within a handful of lengths of Twice Over and Canford Cliffs, some of the top Euro horses. #7 Prince Will I Am was one of the few three year olds to be older in a graded stakes last year. He stretches back out after a fast-closing 5th in the Woodford Reserve on the Churchill Downs undercard. Many will use him, but this blog will not because of budget constraints.

The play:
Pick 4 purposes: #4 & #6

Grade 1 Belmont Stakes - 1m & 1/2 - 3yo

The first question to figure out is whether or not #12 Shackleford can last the twelve furlongs under these conditions. While this blog will hedge and say yes, he probably cannot based on his pedigree. #1 Master of Hounds is the wiseguy horse, and has been bet down in the early wagering. #9 Animal Kingdom ran a fast-closing second to Shackleford in the Preakness after winning the Derby. He should have no problem with the distance based on his long-winded pedigree. He is another we shall use on top as more of a hedge than a pick. #2 Stay Thirsty is the pick to inherit the lead if/when Shackleford gives up the lead. All of these four will be used on top of #9 Nehro in the exacta, as he fits the pattern of other previous 2nd-place finishers in the Derby who head directly to the Belmont.

The Play:
Exacta #1, #2, #9, #12 / #6

Pick 4 ticket starting with the Woody Stephens: 1,5,7 / 8 / 4,6 / 1,2,9,12
Good luck everybody!

Churchill to Belmont, No Stop At Pimlico

Nehro, Master of Hounds, Santiva, Stay Thirsty, Brilliant Speed. These five horses will attempt to win the Belmont Stakes with their last race being the Kentucky Derby. They finished anywhere from 2nd to 12th in the Derby. These five face a tough task, with both the Derby and Preakness winner in the fold, along with hard-trying Mucho Macho Man. So what are their chances to overturn the decision against Animal Kingdom? One way to determine that is to look back on previous horses who have attempted to the same, specifically in the past 20 years.

Below is a chart that list every horse who ran in the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont Stakes without a race in between in the last 20 years.


As the chart shows, the strategy of going directly from the Derby to the Belmont has had some success in the past twenty years. 39 runners have done, with 14 horses hitting the board in the Belmont. None of the five "doing the double" can beat the improvement of Commendable in 2000, who went from a 17th in the Derby to the winner's circle in the Belmont. The five horses in this year match the most in the last 21 years. It is interesting to note that in the 3 most recent years that more than four horses came directly from the Derby (2000, 2006, 2008), both the winner and the runner-up were among that group. That is something to note to those who like any of those horses.

The two Derby finishing positions most often to go on directly to the Belmont in the last twenty years are 2nd and 4th, each with six runners. (scroll down below the chart to see the table listing the total for each finishing position) If Nehro does start on Saturday, he would be the 7th in the past 21 years, meaning 33% of the time the place horse in the Derby has skipped the Preakness in favor of the Belmont. In a tie for the 3rd most often with 5 runners is the 7th place spot, which is where Brilliant Speed finished. Stay Thirsty marks the first time in at least 21 years that the 12th place finisher has gone directly to the Belmont.

So there is some food for thought about the Belmont Stakes this Saturday when it comes to those "doing the double". Take this information as nothing more than a tool to help bring home stacks of cash, office pool pride or simple bragging rights among the family. Good luck this weekend!

Kentucky Derby Card Selections - Looking For a Longshot

Biggest day of year when it comes to horse racing is upon us, the first Saturday in May, Kentucky Derby Day. This blog will be leaving from home early Saturday morning in order to get to Hollywood Park early enough to play the early races on the Churchill card. Here are some plays and thoughts for the card, including who this blog likes in the Kentucky Derby. Let's start with the second race on the card, a first level allowance going a mile and one-sixteenth on the main track (post time 11:00 AM ET). The horse to watch here is Bind. This son of Flatter comes from the Al Stall Jr. barn. He won his debut stylishly, then came home second after pulling his entire race. He runs against older the first time tomorrow, with his man danger coming from Wordly, a former fringe Derby trial runner who finished second in a couple of grade stakes. Many have touted Bind as "The Next Big Thing", and today's race will go a long way in determining whether he is or not.

Skipping ahead to the 6th race, which begins the stakes action with the Twin Spires Turf Sprint. The majority of the money figures to be spread around among four horses, each with different credentials. Chamberlain Bridge won the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint here last year, and is a neck away from being 5 for 5 on this course; Regally Ready, who won three straight races down the hill out here in Santa Anita and owns a win over this course; Bridgetown won the BC Juvenile Turf back in 2009, won his last two races, and has been competitive against some of these; and Custom for Carlos, who is the pick. His only turf start, he had a less then ideal trip while breaking from a wide post. C4C has speed but can rate just off and should fall into a good trip.

Moving on to the 5th stakes on the card, the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic. This race was dramatically affected when Little Mike scratched out of the race Friday morning due to a fever. This has left Get Stormy with a strong chance to go gate to wire. He has win at the distance and one over the course, he had a solid work after his win in the Maker's Mark Mile last time out and the race set-up is extremely favorable to his chances, as he figures to be on or just off the lead. Value seekers could do worse than land on Rahystrada. This son of Rahy ran a good second last out, has won at the distance, and is no stranger to winning at long odds over this course, winning the 2009 River City Handicap at 56-1.

Now the big one, the Kentucky Derby. This blog makes a different between the pick for the Derby to win and the key to the exotics. The pick to win is used only on top, while the key is the horse most likely to hit the board, and is used in all three on the board spots. The pick to win is Derby Kitten. This son of Kitten's Joy out of the Menifee mare Blush has a pedigree that many who follow this blog is familiar with, and that is part of the reason he is the choice. He is blog favorite William's Kitten full brother. DK won his way into the Derby after winning the Lexington Stakes last time out. His only dirt try was awful, but it was on a track that favored those on or near the lead, and his brother WK handled the dirt just fine, including a second in the Kentucky Jockey Club to last year's Derby winner Super Saver. Now Derby Kitten will be a huge longshot, but he will relish the mile and a quarter, and this blog thinks he can avenge his brother's inability to make it here last year with a major upset.

The key to the exotics is Stay Thirsty. He takes the blinkers off after a disastrous effort in the Florida Derby. He had previously won the Gotham Stakes, defeating Wood Memorial winner Toby's Corner in the process. He has worked well without the blinkers since the Florida Derby, and will be a good price on the board. The main reason that Stay Thirsty is the key to this blog's exotics is his potential trip in the race. With three speed horses to the outside, and closers to his inside and outside the speed, Stay Thirsty looks to have the chance to set-up a perfect position quickly, before the rest of the field drops over from the outside. This will give him ever chance to run well and give his backers their money's worth.

So today is the big day, and big stakes are abound. Will the prices be enormous> Can Derby Kitten do what 'William' could not? Can the winner be the one to end the Triple Crown drought? We shall see, Good luck everybody!