- Unless Tres Borrachos pulls off a major upset, this year's Dirt Mile winner will be the first to NOT have prepped in a nine furlong race in their previous start.
- Bob Baffert will have 40% of his entrants breaking from post position number one, including three of the four dirt Sprint races, with only Secret Circle avoiding the rail in the sprints.
- As expected, the U.S-based runners in the BC Turf are the four longest shots on the morning line. The division has fallen hard this year.
- Medaglia DAmour has a real chance to blow up the tote in the Ladies' Classic.
- Jackson Bend going in the Sprint instead of the Dirt Mile might have cost him a chance at the Eclipse award for Champion Sprinter. If 6 furlongs proves to be too short and someone like Caleb's Posse or The Factor wins the Dirt Mile, they could snatch the award away from him.
- Loved the lively debate on Twitter today about why Uncle Mo will be the post-time favorite in the Classic.
- Honestly, what was Mike Battaglia thinking when he made up the morning line for the Juvenile Fillies Turf? 134.76% is never an acceptable total for a set of odds, not even with the 20-runner Kentucky Derby!
Monday, October 31, 2011
A Few Random BC Post-Draw Thoughts
A few random BC post-draw thoughts:
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Both my lonshots drew really poorly. I like Fort Loudon and Awesome Bell in the Juvenile Dirt races. I think the Calder horses are going to be overlooked.
ReplyDeleteFast Bullet is set to blow in to Churchill in Friday's Jimmy V. Stakes. The ML is 5/1 but he will likely be bet down to 7/2 or a tad lower. He's a little raw but checkout his finish when Garcia set him down in his debut. His last eighth was frightful. He's not as quick as The Factor but he has just as much talent. The field has no world beaters in it while FB will go next in the Malibu (barring a visit from the racing Fates.) It's silly that seemingly three out four startling maiden breakers erupt from Baffert nowadays but such is the current world order.
ReplyDeleteBTW, could Maclean's Music make the Malibu? I'd like him in there to boost the field odds.
Breeders Cup Friday Parlays
ReplyDeleteR4 Fast Bullet
R5 Secret Circle
Why parlay when you could bet the double? The Baffert Barn Bigshot Bettors will be getting down in a big way on the double so take the double bite in the win pools and get value.
R4 Fast Bullet
R5 Secret Circle
R7 Switch
I would have included Somali Lemonade in the 6th but with Alex on and drawing the 14 hole I visualize the chart going as this.
Somali Lemonade, off a bit slowly, was 6 wide on the first turn, angled in twice on the backstretch to find the 3 path, was eager to run while blocked to the quarter pole, found room just thereafter and swung 17 wide, found her stride and rallied furiously in the stretch to just miss by a head.
R4 FB
R5 SC
R8 Weemissfrankie
R4 FB
R5 SC
R10 Ask the Moon, Ultra Blend
R4 Fast Bullet
R5 Secret Circle
R7 Switch
R8 WemissfrankiebuthegotdaysinFrancesonoBCforhim
R4 Fast Bullet
R5 Secret Circle
R7 Switch
R8 Wemissfrankie
R10 Ask the Moon, Ultra Blend
If that last one comes in I'm moving to Utah and marrying a Kardashian to get my filly stable roll on.