Thursday, October 27, 2011

Slow Your 'Mo

With the Breeders' Cup only days away, handicappers across the globe have started the task of dissecting the past performances of the pre-entered horses. From probable short-priced favorite Secret Circle in the Juvenile Sprint on early Friday afternoon to Uncle Mo in the Classic, the list of horses to cut through is large. The Classic is the marquee event, with the juvenile champion Uncle Mo and the filly Havre de Grace being the headliners. Others will fancy the New Zealand (by way of Australia and Europe) invader So You Think and the domestic feel-good story Flat Out. But for those who like Uncle Mo, here is another piece of information that may cause some concern. The following sheet shows the odds and the finishing place of the lowest odds three year old in the Classic for every year since the Breeders' Cup inception. (except 1985) [Now updated with 1985's result. Thanks Steve]
Only A.P. Indy has won among any of these fine three year old colts, among them five year end champions. Of the eight favorites, five have hit the board, which represents over half of the eight total on the board finishes. For those who think Uncle Mo is a standout and will win the Classic, maybe this piece of history will cool your enthusiasm just a little.

1 comment:

  1. So Uncle Mo is unproven at the distance, lacks the proper foundation, isn't bred for the distance, and is bucking 3YO Classic history.

    Can we expedite the passage of Betfair by next Friday?

    Nice work tencent.