Belmont Stakes Thoughts, Undercard Picks, Other Stakes

The racing world was shocked this morning with the news that Derby & Preakness winner I'll Have Another has been withdrawn from the Belmont Stakes due to an injury. He hurt himself within the last two days of his training. The expected massive disappointed crowd will have 5 stakes appetizers (4 graded) to watch before the now deflated main event. This stakes run the gamut from sprinting on the dirt to long-distance routing on the turf. This blog will offer some brief thoughts about them, then the big race itself, then a brief word about the stakes action at Hollywood Park.

The first stake on the Belmont Stakes card is the Easy Goer Stakes for three year olds going 1m & 1/16th. Created to fill the hole in the all stakes P6 caused by the moving of the G1 Acorn to Memorial Day weekend. This race could be a barometer for the Belmont, as Teeth of the Dog comes out of a 5th place finish in the Preakness. Brimstone Island comes out of a 2nd in an allowance race on the Preakness undercard that Belmont Stakes entrant Paynter won. Skyring completes is his own triple crown, as he ran and won races on both the Derby and Preakness undercards. This race is a tough call because horses come in from several different races, making it hard to judge class levels. This blog has chased Skyring through victory and defeat in the past, but this is his 9th race this year, and sooner or later it has to catch up to him. This blog will pass on offering a selection.

The first graded stake on the card is the True North Handicap (6 furlongs). Five of the eight entrants have won a graded stakes in the last year. Giant Ryan won the Grade 1 Vosburgh last year over this very track. After a failed attempt over in Dubai, he comes back to the states in this race. Smiling Tiger is the morning line favorite in his second race back from an eight plus month layoff. He usually runs better first off the layoff than in the 2nd race back, but he ran very poorly last time out. Hamazing Destiny broke a twenty month losing streak last time out winning the G3 Maryland Sprint Handicap. Like his stablemates Skyring & Belmont entrant Optimizer, he is completing the undercard triple crown. Royal Currier has made his connections a nice living picking off ungraded stakes, but can he handle the step up to graded company this time? This blog is skipping this race as well, as it is a real headscratcher.

The Just A Game is the first Grade 1 on the card and the first leg of the guaranteed $1 million Pick 4. This blog is going to take a stand both against Winter Memories and Hungry Island. Winter Memories has many, many fans as she has overcome some questionable rides to win with a late flourish.But this blog feels she is better around two whole turns than the one-& 1/16th turn the one mile distance is run at Belmont. She figures to be once again at depressed odds. The stand against Hungry Island is a tenuous one as she just won a nice turf stakes on the Derby undercard at this distance. This blog just has a hunch that she will regress on the turn back to from two turns and off a career best race. The two who will be on the Pick 4 ticket are Wallis (the pick) and Sylvestris. Wallis comes off a 5 month layoff after tiring going slightly further in a Grade 3. The cutback to one-turn and to a flat mile will definitely help her. She has an abbreviated worktab but her trainer C. Clement has good numbers off the layoff. Sylvestris stretches off a smashing win over this course going seven furlongs last out. Mike Smith picks up the mount and appears to be on the improve.

The G3 Woody Stephens (7 furlongs) is so hard to handicap that this blog suggests that the reader use as many as he/she can afford. (It's so hard the blog can't even come up with token analysis!)

The Grade 1 Manhattan brings together an interesting lot, including a Southern California invader. The speed of this rather paceless race figures to be Hudson Steele. Coming off a win in the Grade 2 Dixie last out, he stretches out further than he has ever ran before in ten furlongs. His trainer Todd Pletcher has won many Grade 1 in his career, but this race has alluded him. The tenth furlong figures to be his downfall based on his sire, though with the possible easy fractions he could set, it may be within his grasp.Omayad (Chi) is the Southern California invader, choosing to go here instead of staying home for the Charles Whittingham Handicap under the same conditions (but a smaller purse). He won multiple grade 1 races in his native Chile. He had a solid comeback race in his North American debut last time out, though the 3rd place finisher lost a claiming race next time out and the 4th place finisher was well beaten in the American Handicap. This blog feels that Omayad might be the best horse going forward but not today. Brilliant Speed comes out of a good third behind an easy lead gate-to-wire winner in the Woodford Reserve on the Derby undercard. That race looks to be very strong in spite of the winner's trip. He has three snappy workouts since the race and he is the pick.

The complexion of the Belmont Stakes changed with the scratch of I'll Have Another. The probable crowd size will dramatically shrink with no triple crown in the line, which will help the chances of one horse in particular. Paynter is the one horse I thought had the talent to beat I'll Have Another in the Belmont if you had asked me three weeks ago. My biggest reservation with him is that after see him school multiple times over the winter live (and on video before the triple crown races is that he doesn't seem to be all there mentally. Maybe it is his lack of seasoning or he is just that type of horse, but he seems to let little things affect him. This is bad news as he will need all the energy he can save for the grueling twelve furlongs. Union Rags will be heavily backed by his rabid fan base, but this blog's feelings have not changed about him since the Derby. The same reasons this blog did not like him in the Derby (distance, inability to handle traffic) still apply. He will via for favoritism with Dullahan. Dullahan has only two wins, both on Polytrack, but closed with a rush to finish third in the Kentucky Derby. He seems to fit the mold of a classic "Garbage Collector" type. The term was created after this writer's betting of Denis of Cork, who ran 3rd in the Derby and 2nd in the Belmont in 2008. In both of those races, this writer was certain going into the respective races that Denis of Cork would finished where they ended up finishing, and played those races accordingly. This blog will be playing Dullahan in the same way, keying him for 2nd. For a bomber, Atigun might be worth a flier. He is bred to be okay at the distance, comes off a win and has been training at Belmont for the last month.

Possible $1m guaranteed all stakes Pick 4 ticket:
Leg 1: Wallis, Sylvestris
Leg 2: ALL
Leg 3: Brilliant Speed
Leg 4: Atigun, Paynter (for now)
Cost: $20 (for a .50 base)

Patrons who head out to Hollywood Park to watch the Belmont Stakes there via simulcast will get to see three stakes, including the Grade 1 Whittingham Memorial Handicap. Two-time defending champion Acclamation goes for 3rd win in a row, but he will have to get through Slim Shadey (who is the pick and the best bet the whole weekend for this blog), who comes off a good 2nd in the Woodford Reserve on the Derby Day undercard. Two stakes for three year old grass fillies are also on tap. Possibly the best 3yo turf filly in the nation Lady of Shamrock headlines the 1m 1/8th G2 Honeymoon Handicap, a prep for the G1 American Oaks next month. Three races later, the turf sprinters get in the act with Manhattan Beach Stakes.


So there is a look at the action on a big day of action. It is not as epic a day as it was looking it would be, but nonetheless a day filled with stakes action. Good luck folks.

Where to Take A Stand on the Belmont Stakes

Betting the 2012 Belmont Stakes is all about taking stands. Taking a stand with or against I'll Have Another being the twelfth Triple Crown winner in U.S. racing history. Taking a stand on whether Union Rags can bounce back from his disappointing effort in the Kentucky Derby. Taking a stand about how much impact any of the new shooters will have on the final leg of the Triple Crown. All of these stands will be based on however the reader handicaps the race and the opinions formed about the horses. To aid you in this process, the chart below lists the top 3 finishers in the Belmont the last twelve years at selected points of call during the race, as well as the post time odds.



The charts show some interesting statistics. First, it shows that until the far turn, the winner and the 2nd-place finisher are likely to be within a length of each other for the first two-thirds of the race. This has been the case three of the last five years (2007, 2010, 2011). Also, only once in the last twelve years has the winner been further than six lengths back after a half-mile (Jazil, 2006). Both of these facts could be considered a negative for Dullahan's chances, but a positive for those who fancy any combination of I'll Have Another, Paynter and Union Rags.

The two most interesting points the chart points out is that the 3rd place finisher tends to lose ground to the leaders going down the backstretch. This makes sense as horses are faster on the straightaway than the turn, leading to more separation of the field. The other thing that catches the eye is that the average odds for the second place finisher is considerably lower than the winner or the 3rd place finisher. This could be a positive for those who will key any of the four lowest odds horses underneath in the place spot.

As with all data, this chart is up to interpretation, but hopefully it will help aid in the cashing of many, many tickets. Good luck this Saturday folks.

One Drought Broken, Another One In Sight?

I'll Have Another came out of the pack to gun down Bodemeister deep in the stretch of the Kentucky Derby to end the 23 year drought of the Santa Anita Derby winner going on to take the run for the roses. Two weeks later, the North American racing world finds the attention focused on Pimlico Race Course. The Preakness Stakes is the middle leg in the Triple Crown and the next step to see if I'll Have Another can break another streak of futility, the thirty-four year gap since Affirmed last won all three jewels. Many of the top finishers of the Derby come back in an attempt at avenging the loss. Some new shooters will attempt to upset the bid for immortality as well.  Let us get to the action.

I'll Have Another seems to have bounced out of his grueling effort fine. He shipped to Pimlico early to become acclimated with his surroundings before most of the other competitors. He was installed as the 2nd choice on the morning line to the horse who he passed in deep stretch Bodemeister. Bode shipped in this week and has been looking fine over the track, The biggest question for both of these runners is how will they bounce back after their grueling efforts. IHA has only two preps and could be under raced this year to bounce back quickly from such an effort. Bodemeister will be making his sixth start in four months and his third start in 5 weeks. Is it too much too soon?

The others coming back from the Derby in attempt to avenge are Went The Day Well (4th), Creative Cause (5th), Daddy Nose Best (10th) and Optimizer (11th). Many are jumping on the bandwagon of the first two because of their late-running and wide trips in the Derby. CC shipped back to California, then to Pimlico for the race while WTDW shipped home to Fair Hill before coming in for the race. Optimizer is being run into the ground by his trainer, just begging for turf one day in his future. This blog picked Daddy Nose Best in the Derby (but did say that the winner would be on all of the exotics in the win spot), and like him to bounce back from his effort, chalking up the clunker to being too close to hot pace early on in the race, leaving him nothing left in the stretch.

The new shooters seem to be a bit below the runners from the Derby, but some out there like them. Tiger Walk is owned by the one of the best local folks in the business, Sagamore Farm. The distance & class are the question with him. Teeth Of The Dog comes in for Michael Matz, so those who bet Union Rags in the Derby may play him for a chance to make his money back. Pretension is another local horse, but he looks too slow to even clunk up for a minor award, even though he won the local prep. Zetterholm comes in for the crafty Rick Dutrow and steps up from the state-bred ranks. Maybe has a chance to garbage collect underneath in the superfecta. Cozzetti has run some okay race that could maybe earn him a share of the trifecta if things go right.

ANALYSIS: Once again Bodemeister is a play against based on the price and the fact that this feels like too much racing in such a short amount of time. The shipping back and forth for Creative Cause is a major negative for this blog. Went The Day Well will be overbet for what this blog feels was an optical illusion of a fast-closing effort in the Derby based on how slow the final furlong was run in.

Daddy Nose Best was the pick in the Derby and he will be the pick in the Preakness. He figures to get a better trip than the two favorites and will be a better price than WTDW or Creative Cause. But just like the Derby, I'll Have Another will be a part of all tickets in the top spot. An exacta box of these two will be the main play.

Good luck folks!

Preakness Card Stakes Thoughts

The middle jewel of the Triple Crown is upon us. Animal Kingdom carries the hopes of a nation that he can end the drought that has stricken us since Affirmed in 1978 of a Triple crown winner. The undercard has some solid races with some past Grade 1 winners, some hopeful up-and-comers and good betting opportunities. Ranging from a pair of 6 furlong sprints all the way to the mile and three-sixteenths of the Preakness, this figures to be a good day of racing. Let's start with the race for the fillies and mares going a mile and one-sixteenth.

The Alliare Dupont Distaff marks the return to graded stakes company for multiple grade one winner Life At Ten. After a so-so second in her 2011 debut going one turn at Gulfstream. Returning to two-turns, she towers over this field on class. The only concern is that she may have lost something after that debacle in the Breeders' Cup and maybe Father Time has caught up with her a bit. Her main danger is Payton D'Oro. Her biggest win was 2009 Black-Eyed Susan right her at this track. She ran a so-so third in her only start this year, and that was her first start in the year. She's worked well for trainer Larry Jones, but she also may have lost a step. Decelerator figures to be winging on the front end.

Two races later brings together 3yo sprinters in the Chick Lang Stakes going 6 furlongs. This is the second leg of the guaranteed $250k Early Pick 4. (This blog thinks that #8 Easy Ashley is a single in the first leg of the Pick 4). This is a tough race as contention runs deep. Ghost Is Clear just quit last time, for some reason, but has come back to work well, and has several sprint races which would be competitive. Chipshot comes in third off the layoff with a bullet work in tow. Escort just quit on the Poly last time, has worked well since, and has power couple Pletcher/Velazquez behind him. Venegeful Wildcat has two narrow losses this year against similar. Road Ready will be coming out of the clouds, but can he get up in time?

Next up is the James W Murphy for three year olds on the lawn going a mile. This looks like a three horse race between: Lil Bit O'Fun, who gets some class relief after meeting the best turf 3yos in the country last out; Humble and Hungry gets back on turf in his second start of the year and acquires the services of Garrett Gomez; and Joes Blazing Aaron, who won the Grade 3 Palm Beach two back in gate-to-wire fashion. These three tower over the rest of the field.

The last race of the early Pick 4 is Grade 3 Maryland Sprint. The heavy favorite figures to be the SoCal based Ventana. He has banged heads with some of the best sprinters on the west coast, but always seems to come out on the short end. This blog believes that he is slightly better at a distance a half-furlong longer than today's distance, which makes him very vulnerable. Nathan's H Q is a true speedball, but he is inside speed, and he looks that he will have the lead turning for home. If he can shake free, he is a danger to lead gate-to-wire. China comes back in 17 days after a solid second behind a gunner in the oft-injured but very talented Irrefutable. He threw a swift workout in the interim and could be sitting on a huge effort. He'll be sitting just off the pace.

The start of the guaranteed $1 million dollar late Pick 4 starts with the Grade 3 Galorette Handicap. The highweight and favorite is Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf winner Shared Account. This is her first race since her huge upset win in the BC, and she has been training steadily for her trainer Graham Motion. She ran 4th in this race last year off a similar layoff. This looks like a good time to take a stand against her at short odds, and the horse to take advantage is No Explaining. She won last out in solid turf race at Keeneland in good time. She ships down for her trainer Roger Attfield from her Woodbine home base, which is saying something since Woodbine offers a race at a similar distance two weeks from now for three times the purse. She retains top jock John Velazquez in the irons, who will keep her mid-pack, looking to get a jump on the favorite. She will enjoy any give in the ground as well. The 10 pound difference in weight in favor of No Explaining can't hurt either.

The William Donald Schaefer and the Dixie have a horse cross-entered in Eighttofasttocatch. If he runs in the Schaefer, as is the most likely scenario, he rates a solid chance, but he must defeat a much deeper, but not necessarily stronger, field. Colizeo (looking to bounce back after an no excuse third in the Grade 3 Skip Away), Pleasant Prince (first race since getting crushed in the BC Classic and his second race against older), Icabad Crane (has a win over the track and ran third in the Preakness three years ago) and Apart (Trying to follow in former barnmate Blame's footsteps, though he has nowhere near the killer instinct of the champion older male).

If “Eight” does go in the Dixie, his main obstacle is Paddy O'Prado. This multiple graded stakes winner was the king of the three year-olds on turf, winning 4 stakes an finishing 2nd against older in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic before getting beaten by 5 ½ in the BC Classic. He makes his 2011 debut in the Dixie, and brings a solid series of works into the race. This maybe the best time to beat him, as this race is clearly a means to an end for bigger and better things later on in the year. He is carrying the same amount of weight as the others, which gives him a clear advantage over the field. Hopefully “Eight” stays in this race, as he looks to be one with a chance to upset the heavy favorite at a big price.

This leaves the big one, the Preakness. Now this blog admits that the Kentucky Derby was an unmitigated disaster, but the struggle to find a pick, let alone a key in the exotics, portended doom from the beginning. After regrouping, seeing what went wrong and admitting that the selections have been very hit or miss with this lot this year, a renewed enthusiasm for the race came on. Now, the pick for today is not to win, but to place. That is because this horse s probably not good enough to win, but under the right circumstances he can light up the tote at a big number. That horse is Norman Asbjornson. He ran 4th in the Wood after running 2nd in the Gotham. His sire won this race back in 1998, and he has solid local connections. He's had two stamina building workouts in the interim and has made a solid appearance in the mornings. He's slowly improved with every race, with this being his third off the layoff. If his jockey can time the move just right, maybe he grind his way to second.

So the Preakness is upon us. Can Animal Kingdom keep his Triple Crown hopes alive? Will Someone end them instead? Can Shared Account and Paddy O'Prado return off the layoff to their previous form? We shall see. Good luck everybody!