The middle jewel of the Triple Crown is upon us. Animal Kingdom carries the hopes of a nation that he can end the drought that has stricken us since Affirmed in 1978 of a Triple crown winner. The undercard has some solid races with some past Grade 1 winners, some hopeful up-and-comers and good betting opportunities. Ranging from a pair of 6 furlong sprints all the way to the mile and three-sixteenths of the Preakness, this figures to be a good day of racing. Let's start with the race for the fillies and mares going a mile and one-sixteenth.
The Alliare Dupont Distaff marks the return to graded stakes company for multiple grade one winner Life At Ten. After a so-so second in her 2011 debut going one turn at Gulfstream. Returning to two-turns, she towers over this field on class. The only concern is that she may have lost something after that debacle in the Breeders' Cup and maybe Father Time has caught up with her a bit. Her main danger is Payton D'Oro. Her biggest win was 2009 Black-Eyed Susan right her at this track. She ran a so-so third in her only start this year, and that was her first start in the year. She's worked well for trainer Larry Jones, but she also may have lost a step. Decelerator figures to be winging on the front end.
Two races later brings together 3yo sprinters in the Chick Lang Stakes going 6 furlongs. This is the second leg of the guaranteed $250k Early Pick 4. (This blog thinks that #8 Easy Ashley is a single in the first leg of the Pick 4). This is a tough race as contention runs deep. Ghost Is Clear just quit last time, for some reason, but has come back to work well, and has several sprint races which would be competitive. Chipshot comes in third off the layoff with a bullet work in tow. Escort just quit on the Poly last time, has worked well since, and has power couple Pletcher/Velazquez behind him. Venegeful Wildcat has two narrow losses this year against similar. Road Ready will be coming out of the clouds, but can he get up in time?
Next up is the James W Murphy for three year olds on the lawn going a mile. This looks like a three horse race between: Lil Bit O'Fun, who gets some class relief after meeting the best turf 3yos in the country last out; Humble and Hungry gets back on turf in his second start of the year and acquires the services of Garrett Gomez; and Joes Blazing Aaron, who won the Grade 3 Palm Beach two back in gate-to-wire fashion. These three tower over the rest of the field.
The last race of the early Pick 4 is Grade 3 Maryland Sprint. The heavy favorite figures to be the SoCal based Ventana. He has banged heads with some of the best sprinters on the west coast, but always seems to come out on the short end. This blog believes that he is slightly better at a distance a half-furlong longer than today's distance, which makes him very vulnerable. Nathan's H Q is a true speedball, but he is inside speed, and he looks that he will have the lead turning for home. If he can shake free, he is a danger to lead gate-to-wire. China comes back in 17 days after a solid second behind a gunner in the oft-injured but very talented Irrefutable. He threw a swift workout in the interim and could be sitting on a huge effort. He'll be sitting just off the pace.
The start of the guaranteed $1 million dollar late Pick 4 starts with the Grade 3 Galorette Handicap. The highweight and favorite is Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf winner Shared Account. This is her first race since her huge upset win in the BC, and she has been training steadily for her trainer Graham Motion. She ran 4th in this race last year off a similar layoff. This looks like a good time to take a stand against her at short odds, and the horse to take advantage is No Explaining. She won last out in solid turf race at Keeneland in good time. She ships down for her trainer Roger Attfield from her Woodbine home base, which is saying something since Woodbine offers a race at a similar distance two weeks from now for three times the purse. She retains top jock John Velazquez in the irons, who will keep her mid-pack, looking to get a jump on the favorite. She will enjoy any give in the ground as well. The 10 pound difference in weight in favor of No Explaining can't hurt either.
The William Donald Schaefer and the Dixie have a horse cross-entered in Eighttofasttocatch. If he runs in the Schaefer, as is the most likely scenario, he rates a solid chance, but he must defeat a much deeper, but not necessarily stronger, field. Colizeo (looking to bounce back after an no excuse third in the Grade 3 Skip Away), Pleasant Prince (first race since getting crushed in the BC Classic and his second race against older), Icabad Crane (has a win over the track and ran third in the Preakness three years ago) and Apart (Trying to follow in former barnmate Blame's footsteps, though he has nowhere near the killer instinct of the champion older male).
If “Eight” does go in the Dixie, his main obstacle is Paddy O'Prado. This multiple graded stakes winner was the king of the three year-olds on turf, winning 4 stakes an finishing 2nd against older in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic before getting beaten by 5 ½ in the BC Classic. He makes his 2011 debut in the Dixie, and brings a solid series of works into the race. This maybe the best time to beat him, as this race is clearly a means to an end for bigger and better things later on in the year. He is carrying the same amount of weight as the others, which gives him a clear advantage over the field. Hopefully “Eight” stays in this race, as he looks to be one with a chance to upset the heavy favorite at a big price.
This leaves the big one, the Preakness. Now this blog admits that the Kentucky Derby was an unmitigated disaster, but the struggle to find a pick, let alone a key in the exotics, portended doom from the beginning. After regrouping, seeing what went wrong and admitting that the selections have been very hit or miss with this lot this year, a renewed enthusiasm for the race came on. Now, the pick for today is not to win, but to place. That is because this horse s probably not good enough to win, but under the right circumstances he can light up the tote at a big number. That horse is Norman Asbjornson. He ran 4th in the Wood after running 2nd in the Gotham. His sire won this race back in 1998, and he has solid local connections. He's had two stamina building workouts in the interim and has made a solid appearance in the mornings. He's slowly improved with every race, with this being his third off the layoff. If his jockey can time the move just right, maybe he grind his way to second.
So the Preakness is upon us. Can Animal Kingdom keep his Triple Crown hopes alive? Will Someone end them instead? Can Shared Account and Paddy O'Prado return off the layoff to their previous form? We shall see. Good luck everybody!
Showing posts with label paddy o'prado. Show all posts
Showing posts with label paddy o'prado. Show all posts
Saturday, May 21, 2011
Saturday, May 15, 2010
Preakness Stakes Card Stakes Picks - Hoping to Lay Some Blame
As the 2nd jewel of the Triple Crown arrives, this blog hopes to rebound from a miserable showing yesterday at Pimlico. So here are the selections for the stakes on the Preakness card. This blog cannot wait for Race 8 as the horse who is held in high regard is running. First things first however...
Race 6: Chick Lang S. - Grade 3 - 6 Furlongs
This race looks to be a one-horse race. #3 Comedero is coming in on a 3 race win streak, is undefeated sprinting (6-for-6) and showed a new dimension by laying just off the pace in his last two starts, taking over in the stretch and drawing clear. His running style will have him sitting just off the #5 Latigo Shore and/or the #4 Quiet Invader, making his move turning for home and he looks to extend his winning streak to four races. #2 Gary D is shipping in from Woodbine for Steve Asumussen, where he finished 4th in a stake. His two lifetime wins both came at the distance and looks to be sitting just to the inside of the #3. #6 Charles Russell has only made one start lifetime, but it was a winning one. He did it stylistically nice, though it was 10 weeks ago and there are only three works in the interim. He has been working fast, but gives up a world of experience.
Selections:
#3 Comedero
#2 Gary D
#6 Charles Russell
Race 7: James W. Murphy - 1 Mile (Turf)
This race is a scramble. This blog is going to take a stab with #11 Thunder Brew. He is riding a modest two race win streak, which includes a small state-bred stake at Tampa Bay Downs. He seems to be on the improve, and has three nice works since his last race. He can rally into a slow pace or come from far out of it, and looks like to have a good chance. #2 Beau Choix comes in with a nice series of works and out of a race that produced at least one next out winner in Our Douglas, who won on Friday at Churchill Downs. He has definitely improved on the turf, and willing be rolling from the back of the pack. #6 Regal Warrior is not really bred for the grass, but is a local horse, and the locals always seem to find there way into a trifecta or two. This son of Preakness winner Louis Quatorze has a nice tracking style, and if he takes to the grass, could fall into a nice trip. Others to consider are #7 Manhattan Fox, coming in 3rd off the layoff, and #5 Kera's Kitten, a multiple winner on the grass and a small stakes winner on the Poly.
Selections:
#11 Thunder Brew
#2 Beau Choix
#6 Regal Warrior
Race 8: The William Donald Schaefer Hcp. - Grade 3 - 1 mile & 1/16
This race marks the return of Blame, who finished off his three-year-old season with two wins over older in the Grade 2 Fayette at Keeneland and the Grade 2 Clark at Churchill Downs. This blog is so high on him that the blog thinks he can be Horse of the Year. The campaign starts here against a suspect group of older horses. He has been working steadily the last 6 weeks and towers over this field on class. He has run well off a similar layoff, albeit it at a much shorter distance than his optimum, and looks primed to go. #4 I Know Why comes in on a tidy two race win streak, both won in gate-to-wire fashion. However, in the past he shown the ability to track and win. If Blame doesn't bring it, he could be the one to upset the apple cart. #8 Indian Dance comes in off an okay 4th in the Charles Town Classic, but the cut back of a 16th of a mile has to help this son of Indian Charlie. While he has won further than this, the distance strikes this blog as one that hits him right in the wheelhouse. He will sitting mid-pack and can factor in the exacta.
Selections:
#7 Blame
#4 I Know Why
#8 Indian Dance
Race 9: Gallorette Handicap - Grade 3 - 1 mile & 1/16 (Turf)
There is a formidable favorite in here in #4 Rainbow View. She comes off of a facile win in a conditioned allowance at Keeneland. This multiple group one stakes winner in Europe looks to come into this race in fantastic shape for trainer Jonathan Sheppard. But one man can take only so much chalk, so this blog shall try to beat her with #7 Denomination. This daughter of Smart Strike comes in 2nd off a layoff for trainer Christophe Clement and looks to capitalize on a wicked pace. She has worked well in the interim and looks to be sitting on a big race. #6 Payton D'Oro won the Black-Eyed Susan on the main track here last year, and makes her turf debut today. This daughter of Medaglia D'Oro won in a grinding finish, wearing down the lone speed in her last race. She has fired two bullets in the interim for trainer Cindy Jones. If she takes to turf, she could be a force to reckon with on two surfaces.
Selections:
#7 Denomination
#4 Rainbow View
#6 Payton D'Oro
Race 10: Maryland Sprint Hcp. - Grade 3 - 6 furlongs
This blog will just come out and say that this race is nearly impossible. The pick ended up on #2 Malibu Kid. He just won 9 days ago on this course at this distance. He comes third off the layoff for the local connections of Jenkins & Dunkelberger. A upward-moving horse can overcome many of things, including the class rise to graded stakes. #1 Snapshot has run well fresh in the past, as he comes in today off a 7 week freshening. He can go to the lead or sitting just off. He has worked swiftly in the interim and the horse he just beat, Barge, just won Friday at Churchill Downs in a 5 furlong turf race. #8 Taqarub can run in a dogfight and keep going, as he did last time. Hopefully the connections have realized that he is a sprinter, and keep him running short. He has steady works in the interim and comes in 2nd off the layoff. Disregard his lone race here, as something clearly went awry. Also consider #11 Half Metal Jacket and #3 Roaring Lion, though there are others who have chance as well.
Selections:
#2 Malibu Kid
#1 Snapshot
#8 Taqurub
Race 11: Dixie Hcp - Grade 2 - 1 mile & 1/8 (turf)
Another tough race. The top pick is #9 Rahystrada. This 6yo gelded son of Rahy is in great form, coming in off a win in a prep race at Hawthorne Park. He is using the same pattern he used to pull the massive upset in the Grade 3 River City Hcp. at Churchill Downs last fall. He comes in 2nd off the layoff with two steady maintenance works in the interim and could be ready to pop once more, albeit at a smaller price. #2 Grassy comes in off a decent 2nd last out, his first race in six months. With three steady interim works in the holster, this lightly raced son of El Prado hopes to move up right into the winner's circle. #4 Just As Well comes in off a throw out performance on the Poly at Keeneland in the Ben Ali. He returns to turf and looks to rally from way out of the pack, though this may be a bit short. #13 Nicanor is sure to attract some attention at the windows, but might be in a bit too steep at this point in his career.
Selections:
#9 Rahystrada
#2 Grassy
#4 Just As Well
Race 12: Preakness Stakes - Grade 1 - 1 mile & 3/16
Another Triple Crown race comes around, and the horse this blog is most excited about ends up scratching the day of the entry. Endorsement was this horse for the Derby, and Hurricane Ike is the one for the Preakness. So once again, the selection is made without much conviction. One would figure that after having Super Saver rub it in over this blog's insistence of betting him to place, but insisting he could not win. After the win, i was all for seeing him as our next triple crown winner, even saying so in a few places. But then a huge monkey wrench was thrown into the mix when Pletcher decide to work him three furlongs. That simple act has forced this blog to look to another horse as he top pick. Nothing in the work itself was bad, but this blog has a policy about 3 furlongs, and it goes like this:
If a horse's first (or only) work after a race is at three furlongs, and the time between races is between 13-59 days, the horse is automatically tossed from the win slot.
Now why does this policy exist? It does because this blog has the ugly stat of 1 win from 143 starts when betting a horse that fits these conditions. This blog has stop betting them all together due to this stat.
So we move on to another horse. But who? None of the remaining new shooters excite me. That leaves me with only those who where in the Derby. Of the others who are coming out of the Derby, the pick is Paddy O'Prado. He has looked well in the interim, he draws the #10 again (always a plus) and might benefit from a change of tactics. This blog is under the assumption that one of the two Dale Romans horses, either Paddy or First Dude, will go to the lead to try and soften up Super Saver. If Paddy goes to the lead, he has shown he can cook and keep going. If First Dude is the one to go, Super Saver will have to prove that he can pass again, and Paddy will be right on his flank turning for home. #8 Super Saver is the 2nd choice, once again being the top choice for the place spot. He has done nothing wrong, but the work is enough to play against. If he wins, he will go to Belmont with the chance to win the sport's first triple crown since 1978 an Affirmed. The co-3rd choices are the ever unlucky (and ironically drawn in post #7) Lookin at Lucky, and the only new shooter to crack this list #5 Yawanna Twist. Lucky looks to avoid another rough trip, as he was mauled in the Derby. Yawanna Twist has been off 6 weeks, and with a deceivingly good run in the Illinois Derby plus a steady stream of works, this son of Yonaguska could give his sire another placing in a triple crown race, after Musket Man ran third in both the Derby and Preakness last year.
Selections:
#10 Paddy O'Prado
#8 Super Saver
#1 Lookin at Lucky/#4 Yawanna Twist
There they are. I wish everyone good luck and hopefully this blog will lead you to a life-changing score.
Race 6: Chick Lang S. - Grade 3 - 6 Furlongs
This race looks to be a one-horse race. #3 Comedero is coming in on a 3 race win streak, is undefeated sprinting (6-for-6) and showed a new dimension by laying just off the pace in his last two starts, taking over in the stretch and drawing clear. His running style will have him sitting just off the #5 Latigo Shore and/or the #4 Quiet Invader, making his move turning for home and he looks to extend his winning streak to four races. #2 Gary D is shipping in from Woodbine for Steve Asumussen, where he finished 4th in a stake. His two lifetime wins both came at the distance and looks to be sitting just to the inside of the #3. #6 Charles Russell has only made one start lifetime, but it was a winning one. He did it stylistically nice, though it was 10 weeks ago and there are only three works in the interim. He has been working fast, but gives up a world of experience.
Selections:
#3 Comedero
#2 Gary D
#6 Charles Russell
Race 7: James W. Murphy - 1 Mile (Turf)
This race is a scramble. This blog is going to take a stab with #11 Thunder Brew. He is riding a modest two race win streak, which includes a small state-bred stake at Tampa Bay Downs. He seems to be on the improve, and has three nice works since his last race. He can rally into a slow pace or come from far out of it, and looks like to have a good chance. #2 Beau Choix comes in with a nice series of works and out of a race that produced at least one next out winner in Our Douglas, who won on Friday at Churchill Downs. He has definitely improved on the turf, and willing be rolling from the back of the pack. #6 Regal Warrior is not really bred for the grass, but is a local horse, and the locals always seem to find there way into a trifecta or two. This son of Preakness winner Louis Quatorze has a nice tracking style, and if he takes to the grass, could fall into a nice trip. Others to consider are #7 Manhattan Fox, coming in 3rd off the layoff, and #5 Kera's Kitten, a multiple winner on the grass and a small stakes winner on the Poly.
Selections:
#11 Thunder Brew
#2 Beau Choix
#6 Regal Warrior
Race 8: The William Donald Schaefer Hcp. - Grade 3 - 1 mile & 1/16
This race marks the return of Blame, who finished off his three-year-old season with two wins over older in the Grade 2 Fayette at Keeneland and the Grade 2 Clark at Churchill Downs. This blog is so high on him that the blog thinks he can be Horse of the Year. The campaign starts here against a suspect group of older horses. He has been working steadily the last 6 weeks and towers over this field on class. He has run well off a similar layoff, albeit it at a much shorter distance than his optimum, and looks primed to go. #4 I Know Why comes in on a tidy two race win streak, both won in gate-to-wire fashion. However, in the past he shown the ability to track and win. If Blame doesn't bring it, he could be the one to upset the apple cart. #8 Indian Dance comes in off an okay 4th in the Charles Town Classic, but the cut back of a 16th of a mile has to help this son of Indian Charlie. While he has won further than this, the distance strikes this blog as one that hits him right in the wheelhouse. He will sitting mid-pack and can factor in the exacta.
Selections:
#7 Blame
#4 I Know Why
#8 Indian Dance
Race 9: Gallorette Handicap - Grade 3 - 1 mile & 1/16 (Turf)
There is a formidable favorite in here in #4 Rainbow View. She comes off of a facile win in a conditioned allowance at Keeneland. This multiple group one stakes winner in Europe looks to come into this race in fantastic shape for trainer Jonathan Sheppard. But one man can take only so much chalk, so this blog shall try to beat her with #7 Denomination. This daughter of Smart Strike comes in 2nd off a layoff for trainer Christophe Clement and looks to capitalize on a wicked pace. She has worked well in the interim and looks to be sitting on a big race. #6 Payton D'Oro won the Black-Eyed Susan on the main track here last year, and makes her turf debut today. This daughter of Medaglia D'Oro won in a grinding finish, wearing down the lone speed in her last race. She has fired two bullets in the interim for trainer Cindy Jones. If she takes to turf, she could be a force to reckon with on two surfaces.
Selections:
#7 Denomination
#4 Rainbow View
#6 Payton D'Oro
Race 10: Maryland Sprint Hcp. - Grade 3 - 6 furlongs
This blog will just come out and say that this race is nearly impossible. The pick ended up on #2 Malibu Kid. He just won 9 days ago on this course at this distance. He comes third off the layoff for the local connections of Jenkins & Dunkelberger. A upward-moving horse can overcome many of things, including the class rise to graded stakes. #1 Snapshot has run well fresh in the past, as he comes in today off a 7 week freshening. He can go to the lead or sitting just off. He has worked swiftly in the interim and the horse he just beat, Barge, just won Friday at Churchill Downs in a 5 furlong turf race. #8 Taqarub can run in a dogfight and keep going, as he did last time. Hopefully the connections have realized that he is a sprinter, and keep him running short. He has steady works in the interim and comes in 2nd off the layoff. Disregard his lone race here, as something clearly went awry. Also consider #11 Half Metal Jacket and #3 Roaring Lion, though there are others who have chance as well.
Selections:
#2 Malibu Kid
#1 Snapshot
#8 Taqurub
Race 11: Dixie Hcp - Grade 2 - 1 mile & 1/8 (turf)
Another tough race. The top pick is #9 Rahystrada. This 6yo gelded son of Rahy is in great form, coming in off a win in a prep race at Hawthorne Park. He is using the same pattern he used to pull the massive upset in the Grade 3 River City Hcp. at Churchill Downs last fall. He comes in 2nd off the layoff with two steady maintenance works in the interim and could be ready to pop once more, albeit at a smaller price. #2 Grassy comes in off a decent 2nd last out, his first race in six months. With three steady interim works in the holster, this lightly raced son of El Prado hopes to move up right into the winner's circle. #4 Just As Well comes in off a throw out performance on the Poly at Keeneland in the Ben Ali. He returns to turf and looks to rally from way out of the pack, though this may be a bit short. #13 Nicanor is sure to attract some attention at the windows, but might be in a bit too steep at this point in his career.
Selections:
#9 Rahystrada
#2 Grassy
#4 Just As Well
Race 12: Preakness Stakes - Grade 1 - 1 mile & 3/16
Another Triple Crown race comes around, and the horse this blog is most excited about ends up scratching the day of the entry. Endorsement was this horse for the Derby, and Hurricane Ike is the one for the Preakness. So once again, the selection is made without much conviction. One would figure that after having Super Saver rub it in over this blog's insistence of betting him to place, but insisting he could not win. After the win, i was all for seeing him as our next triple crown winner, even saying so in a few places. But then a huge monkey wrench was thrown into the mix when Pletcher decide to work him three furlongs. That simple act has forced this blog to look to another horse as he top pick. Nothing in the work itself was bad, but this blog has a policy about 3 furlongs, and it goes like this:
If a horse's first (or only) work after a race is at three furlongs, and the time between races is between 13-59 days, the horse is automatically tossed from the win slot.
Now why does this policy exist? It does because this blog has the ugly stat of 1 win from 143 starts when betting a horse that fits these conditions. This blog has stop betting them all together due to this stat.
So we move on to another horse. But who? None of the remaining new shooters excite me. That leaves me with only those who where in the Derby. Of the others who are coming out of the Derby, the pick is Paddy O'Prado. He has looked well in the interim, he draws the #10 again (always a plus) and might benefit from a change of tactics. This blog is under the assumption that one of the two Dale Romans horses, either Paddy or First Dude, will go to the lead to try and soften up Super Saver. If Paddy goes to the lead, he has shown he can cook and keep going. If First Dude is the one to go, Super Saver will have to prove that he can pass again, and Paddy will be right on his flank turning for home. #8 Super Saver is the 2nd choice, once again being the top choice for the place spot. He has done nothing wrong, but the work is enough to play against. If he wins, he will go to Belmont with the chance to win the sport's first triple crown since 1978 an Affirmed. The co-3rd choices are the ever unlucky (and ironically drawn in post #7) Lookin at Lucky, and the only new shooter to crack this list #5 Yawanna Twist. Lucky looks to avoid another rough trip, as he was mauled in the Derby. Yawanna Twist has been off 6 weeks, and with a deceivingly good run in the Illinois Derby plus a steady stream of works, this son of Yonaguska could give his sire another placing in a triple crown race, after Musket Man ran third in both the Derby and Preakness last year.
Selections:
#10 Paddy O'Prado
#8 Super Saver
#1 Lookin at Lucky/#4 Yawanna Twist
There they are. I wish everyone good luck and hopefully this blog will lead you to a life-changing score.
Friday, April 30, 2010
Kentucky Derby Card Stakes Selections - Awesome! Super! Lucky?
Here we are. The biggest day of the year in the sport, the 1st Saturday of May. After the thrilling performances we witness on Friday, including the narrow victory of Blind Luck over Evening Jewel in the Kentucky Oaks, we come upon the big show. Unfortunately, mother nature is scheduled to be a bit of a party pooper on the big day, with massive and downright scary thunderstorms scheduled to hit at some point during the card. The weather will clearly have an effect on the track, so the selections here are made in mind for an off track and less than firm turf course in mind.
(If there are key scratches that occur, i will put any change of picks into the comments below.)
Race 6: Eight Belles S. - 7 and 1/2 furlongs
This sprint for three year old fillies has the shortest favorite among all the stakes in Hot Dixie Chick. This very fast filly will be winging from the gate and does look tough to beat. But this blog will try. Visavis cuts back after finding the 1m & 1/16 too far in the Kentucky Oaks. She has had three strong works in the interim, is bred to handle the slop and can rate just off the pace. The unique distance looks to be a good fit for this daughter of Indian Charlie. Hot Dixie Chick stretches out to furthest she has ever ran, but has immense talent and has run well on an off track before. Bell's Shoes, beside the obvious hunch play, also cuts back, attracts Calvin Bo-rail and looks like a horse who might be alright a this trip. She has never been on an off track, but could take to it.
Selections:
#7 Visavis
#2 Hot Dixie Chick.
#3 Bell's Shoes
Race 7: Distaff Turf Mile S. - 1 mile (Turf)
This tough race is an example for this blog in which can you take a shot based on track condition. Churchill Downs's turf course is known to play in favor of those inclined to run near the front. This is why this blog is taking a chance on Cure for Sale. This mare may not be the fastest horse in the race, but her combination of positional speed and positive results give her a great chance to pull the upset. Tizaqueena won this race last year under similar circumstances and is riding a two race win streak. She is a much use on your tickets. While Diamondrella is a deep closer, she is no longer owned by IEAH. This development, plus her good efforts on off turf, intrigues this blog enough to put her in the top 3.
Selections:
#8 Cure for Sale
#5 Tizaqueena
#7 Diamondrella
Race 8: Grade 1 Humana Distaff - 7 furlongs
The champion mare Informed Decision is the solid favorite in this race. But this blog will try to beat her, with the reasoning that she seems to pair up how she runs off the layoff, good or bad. Warbling is the choice to beat her. She can sit just off a fast pace, and she can handle the slop. She has had 3 good works in the interim and look ready to go. Mona Di Momma ships in from Socal after winning the Grade 3 Las Flores last out. She has worked well off her last race, but this is her first dirt, slop and run at the distance. Too many questions to put on top, but the form is good enough to suggest a chance.
Selections:
#2 Warbling
#3 Informed Decision
#10 Mona Di Momma
Race 9: Grade 2 Churchill Downs S. - 7 Furlongs
This blog is going for a price in this race. A big one. Atta Boy Roy ships in, stretches out and is coming in guns blazing with the workouts. He should handle the off surface and at 20/1 under Calvin Borel, he's worth a flyer. Ventana is good horse who has run into two horses who just freaked in Kinsale King, who came back and won the Golden Shaheen, and Bob Black Jack, who just ran them off their feet that day. If nothing else, this horse will have the jump on the third choice turning for home, Warrior's Reward is a stone cold closer who has won on this track in the expecting conditions. He has three steady works since he narrow victory over Musket Man in the Carter, hinting that he is holding his form.
Selections:
#9 Atta Boy Roy
#8 Ventana
#7 Warrior's Reward
Race 10: Grade 1 Woodford Reserve Turf Classic - 1m & 1/8 (turf)
This race is very tough because of the three horses who have showed some speed, which is crucial on the CD turf course when it wet, one does not like less the firm turf (Wise River), one has not been on the grass in a very long time (General Quarters) and one seems to have lost the "winstinct". Battle of Hastings is the one that seems to have the lost the will to win, but he is given one more chance. He has been working well and the mile an eighth could just what he needs to find the wire. General Quarters has run well on Polytrack, and given his position in the race turning for home, is worth a shot @ 8/1 ML. Court Vision is one of the few who has closed on a wet turf course, but i just don't think he get nothing more than a minor award
Selections:
#6 Battle of Hastings
#2 General Quarters
#3 Court Vision
Race 11: Grade 1 Kentucky Derby - 1m & 1/4
This year's Derby Trail has been like high school for this blog's author. In September, I thought I had found the one for the Derby in a horse named William's Kitten. He won an off the turf two turn stake on the Super Derby undercard, and by the time he hit the wire, it was love. We "dated" for a while, including when he came to visit for the Breeder' Cup Juvenile, in which he had a troubled trip. He then ran second to Super Saver in the Kentucky Jockey Club S., showing at least a likeness for the track. William's comeback race in the Holy Bull was good, in which he ran third while being much closer to the pace, showing some promise for bit of positional speed.
Then the news came that he was off the trail with an injury. It was deflating. It was like a break-up after your first serious relationship in high school. In the aftermath, you just shuffle the halls moping along, trying to fill a need, a hole in the soul left by the one who's gone. Then the dating process comes along where the search for a new love goes in weird places, with a wide net cast in the hope of latching on to someone. My list of "one-offs" included Backtalk, Rule, Super Saver, Interactif and Drosselmeyer. But none were a good fit.
The search was beginning to look fruitless, with the conclusion that maybe its okay to be that creepy loner dude who can't find love. Then, when it is least expected, "the one" appears out of nowhere. It comes from a place where you have recognized it, but only at a passing glance. Then, when you come face-to-face with it, it is obvious that the search is over. Endorsement was "the one". Coming from a race where I was tracking the 2nd and 3rd place finishers, in which he was the winner, his entry in the Sunland Derby was a sign to to pay attention. I knew the week before (scroll down to the comments and you'll see it) that he was live. Once he easily won the race, it was a lock that he would be my Derby pick. He then trained great going into the race, including having the best work of the contenders, according to DRF's Mike Welsch. Unfortunately in that work, he injured himself and had to have surgery.
Why did I bring all of that up? It is to show that right now, i feel like a person scrambling for a date right before prom, with only slim pickings to choose from, none of which are very attractive or interesting. I ended up on Awesome Act, who is bred not only for the off but the distance. he is inbred to Natalma, the dam of Northern Dancer, and could get a nice trip sitting 6-8 lengths off the pace. Paddy O'Prado had a great workout in the slop and could be sitting the "Smarty Jones" trip, 4th, sitting behind the pace. Super Saver is actually my 7th or 8th pick to win, but my number #1 choice for the place spot. Breeding, style and Borel all point to this being the winner. BUT his lack of passing ability relegates him to the place spot. Lookin at Lucky didn't get any breaks at the post position draw and i can't imagine a horse with his luck getting any sort of a good trip. There is one thing i am sure of: Sidney's Candy is not winning. No way, no how. No.
Selections:
#16 Awesome Act
#10 Paddy O'Prado
#4 Super Saver
So there it is. If you wish to see my live thoughts about the runners (or today's Hollywood Park card) follow my twitter feed here. Good luck everybody!
(If there are key scratches that occur, i will put any change of picks into the comments below.)
Race 6: Eight Belles S. - 7 and 1/2 furlongs
This sprint for three year old fillies has the shortest favorite among all the stakes in Hot Dixie Chick. This very fast filly will be winging from the gate and does look tough to beat. But this blog will try. Visavis cuts back after finding the 1m & 1/16 too far in the Kentucky Oaks. She has had three strong works in the interim, is bred to handle the slop and can rate just off the pace. The unique distance looks to be a good fit for this daughter of Indian Charlie. Hot Dixie Chick stretches out to furthest she has ever ran, but has immense talent and has run well on an off track before. Bell's Shoes, beside the obvious hunch play, also cuts back, attracts Calvin Bo-rail and looks like a horse who might be alright a this trip. She has never been on an off track, but could take to it.
Selections:
#7 Visavis
#2 Hot Dixie Chick.
#3 Bell's Shoes
Race 7: Distaff Turf Mile S. - 1 mile (Turf)
This tough race is an example for this blog in which can you take a shot based on track condition. Churchill Downs's turf course is known to play in favor of those inclined to run near the front. This is why this blog is taking a chance on Cure for Sale. This mare may not be the fastest horse in the race, but her combination of positional speed and positive results give her a great chance to pull the upset. Tizaqueena won this race last year under similar circumstances and is riding a two race win streak. She is a much use on your tickets. While Diamondrella is a deep closer, she is no longer owned by IEAH. This development, plus her good efforts on off turf, intrigues this blog enough to put her in the top 3.
Selections:
#8 Cure for Sale
#5 Tizaqueena
#7 Diamondrella
Race 8: Grade 1 Humana Distaff - 7 furlongs
The champion mare Informed Decision is the solid favorite in this race. But this blog will try to beat her, with the reasoning that she seems to pair up how she runs off the layoff, good or bad. Warbling is the choice to beat her. She can sit just off a fast pace, and she can handle the slop. She has had 3 good works in the interim and look ready to go. Mona Di Momma ships in from Socal after winning the Grade 3 Las Flores last out. She has worked well off her last race, but this is her first dirt, slop and run at the distance. Too many questions to put on top, but the form is good enough to suggest a chance.
Selections:
#2 Warbling
#3 Informed Decision
#10 Mona Di Momma
Race 9: Grade 2 Churchill Downs S. - 7 Furlongs
This blog is going for a price in this race. A big one. Atta Boy Roy ships in, stretches out and is coming in guns blazing with the workouts. He should handle the off surface and at 20/1 under Calvin Borel, he's worth a flyer. Ventana is good horse who has run into two horses who just freaked in Kinsale King, who came back and won the Golden Shaheen, and Bob Black Jack, who just ran them off their feet that day. If nothing else, this horse will have the jump on the third choice turning for home, Warrior's Reward is a stone cold closer who has won on this track in the expecting conditions. He has three steady works since he narrow victory over Musket Man in the Carter, hinting that he is holding his form.
Selections:
#9 Atta Boy Roy
#8 Ventana
#7 Warrior's Reward
Race 10: Grade 1 Woodford Reserve Turf Classic - 1m & 1/8 (turf)
This race is very tough because of the three horses who have showed some speed, which is crucial on the CD turf course when it wet, one does not like less the firm turf (Wise River), one has not been on the grass in a very long time (General Quarters) and one seems to have lost the "winstinct". Battle of Hastings is the one that seems to have the lost the will to win, but he is given one more chance. He has been working well and the mile an eighth could just what he needs to find the wire. General Quarters has run well on Polytrack, and given his position in the race turning for home, is worth a shot @ 8/1 ML. Court Vision is one of the few who has closed on a wet turf course, but i just don't think he get nothing more than a minor award
Selections:
#6 Battle of Hastings
#2 General Quarters
#3 Court Vision
Race 11: Grade 1 Kentucky Derby - 1m & 1/4
This year's Derby Trail has been like high school for this blog's author. In September, I thought I had found the one for the Derby in a horse named William's Kitten. He won an off the turf two turn stake on the Super Derby undercard, and by the time he hit the wire, it was love. We "dated" for a while, including when he came to visit for the Breeder' Cup Juvenile, in which he had a troubled trip. He then ran second to Super Saver in the Kentucky Jockey Club S., showing at least a likeness for the track. William's comeback race in the Holy Bull was good, in which he ran third while being much closer to the pace, showing some promise for bit of positional speed.
Then the news came that he was off the trail with an injury. It was deflating. It was like a break-up after your first serious relationship in high school. In the aftermath, you just shuffle the halls moping along, trying to fill a need, a hole in the soul left by the one who's gone. Then the dating process comes along where the search for a new love goes in weird places, with a wide net cast in the hope of latching on to someone. My list of "one-offs" included Backtalk, Rule, Super Saver, Interactif and Drosselmeyer. But none were a good fit.
The search was beginning to look fruitless, with the conclusion that maybe its okay to be that creepy loner dude who can't find love. Then, when it is least expected, "the one" appears out of nowhere. It comes from a place where you have recognized it, but only at a passing glance. Then, when you come face-to-face with it, it is obvious that the search is over. Endorsement was "the one". Coming from a race where I was tracking the 2nd and 3rd place finishers, in which he was the winner, his entry in the Sunland Derby was a sign to to pay attention. I knew the week before (scroll down to the comments and you'll see it) that he was live. Once he easily won the race, it was a lock that he would be my Derby pick. He then trained great going into the race, including having the best work of the contenders, according to DRF's Mike Welsch. Unfortunately in that work, he injured himself and had to have surgery.
Why did I bring all of that up? It is to show that right now, i feel like a person scrambling for a date right before prom, with only slim pickings to choose from, none of which are very attractive or interesting. I ended up on Awesome Act, who is bred not only for the off but the distance. he is inbred to Natalma, the dam of Northern Dancer, and could get a nice trip sitting 6-8 lengths off the pace. Paddy O'Prado had a great workout in the slop and could be sitting the "Smarty Jones" trip, 4th, sitting behind the pace. Super Saver is actually my 7th or 8th pick to win, but my number #1 choice for the place spot. Breeding, style and Borel all point to this being the winner. BUT his lack of passing ability relegates him to the place spot. Lookin at Lucky didn't get any breaks at the post position draw and i can't imagine a horse with his luck getting any sort of a good trip. There is one thing i am sure of: Sidney's Candy is not winning. No way, no how. No.
Selections:
#16 Awesome Act
#10 Paddy O'Prado
#4 Super Saver
So there it is. If you wish to see my live thoughts about the runners (or today's Hollywood Park card) follow my twitter feed here. Good luck everybody!
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