I was SO right. Yet why do i feel SO wrong?

Let's get the bragging out of the way. I was right about the Breeders' Cup Classic. WAY right. Blame won, like I have been preaching from the mountaintops the entire year. He beat Zenyatta in a thrilling photo, just as I predicted on the previous blog post. Lookin at Lucky finished off the board (just barely), as I have repeatedly said on Twitter. I should be on the top of the world, celebrating my predictions.

Yet I am not.

I know I watched from Hollywood Park what may end being the most emotional, gut-wrenching, heart-stopping race of my life. The only two horses who have ever impelled and inspired me to go out of my comfort zone of "the greater Los Angeles area" to see them run (whether it be in San Diego or New York). The two horses who a large piece of my heart, who I would become nothing more than a shell of a man if something happened to them. Those two horses ended facing one another, and I chose sides, somehow being able to keep my emotions in check for one brief moment of clarity. Yet I hoped if I had to be wrong, I was wrong just a little. But I was right. I should be throwing money around like it was going out of style.

Yet I am not.

Why? That is for another blog. But the part that I will mention is that rumors of Blame's demise via a quarter crack was the final straw that broke my already tenuous hold on sane reasoning, caused from the combination of life, Breeders' Cup and school all asking for my time. All of that lead me not to bet, but to just watch as a spectator. That I did, wearing my Blame shirt, my Blue TVG hat and my gray shorts, in fall contrast to the sea of pink and green signifying Zenyatta's fans. I knew I was one of the few who was going against the queen. After Blame successfully usurp the BC Classic throne away from the queen, I gave a couple of fist pumps, and a couple of gloating tweets about my prognostication. But that was all I could muster before an onrush of mixed emotion enveloped me. I should be happy that I was able to at least put into words my happiness over being right, in that moment.

Yet I am not.

I had to wait several days to write this post, to even try to understand and control my thoughts into something workable for the printed page. My mind was a swirl of happiness and sadness and excitement and depression, confusing me in a such a way that it took this long to fall back into at least some sense of normalcy. This post is more or less an odd of way saying thank you to both Blame and Zenyatta, as they mean so much to me that they made me do, see, feel things that I probably would not have done. I should be happy in how much they have, indirectly as it may seems, helped me turn into a better person.

Yet I am not.

Zenyatta was the first horse in a long time that I fell hard for on more than a paper level. From witnessing her maiden win live, to leaving an ER to see her El Encino win, to helping me understand the game is more than the gambling aspect (via her 2009 BC Classic win). That win made me realize that this game was more than about the big score, the life-changing payoff, the fact that ever time you were cashing a ticket it means you defeat all of those other people, it was about the horses. Her win was a "game-changer", so to speak. So to cheer more for someone else than her hurt me more than a little. But the one who I cheered for was more than a passing fancy. So I should be happy that she ran a huge race, yet did not win.

Yet I am not.

Blame was the horse who piqued my interest in a defeat of all things. His Super Derby second caught my eye, when I all I was watching the race for was to see how the track was playing after William's Kitten snapped my attention to the TV with his win earlier on the card. I love horses who don't give in, even if they are beat. His win in the Fayette validated my initial thought on him, and the Clark victory sealed in the love. The Blame Facebook page followed in the spring, when the time drew near for his first race of the season. I tried not once, not twice, but three times to see him in person, but each time the plans fell through. Finally this blog decided that enough is enough, and made the fateful trip to Belmont. Seeing Blame in person was worth the wait, even if this blog did not get a picture of him. But the trip ended being up so much more than just the horse, it was about the people, the experiences, the change. He made me move myself to a better place personally, socially, spiritually. They both did. So I should be happy that they both ran a huge race, and ran one-two, well clear of the others.

Yet I am not.

My heart, my mind, my entire being is filled with happiness over being right in the Classic, that the fact that ran their best and that they both came back safe from the race. My heart, my mind, my entire being is also filled with sadness over their retirement, their being no chance of a rematch and that they both will never be on a track again. The joy and pain of having the two horses that occupy a place in a person's heart going against each other in combat, with only one of them being able to declare victory on the day, is a feeling that many will never experience. But I would rather suffered through all of the agony and the ecstasy of the ride than never have experienced any of it. The change in my life brought upon these two is unquantifiable. Many would be ashamed by this post, and how i have claimed ownership over two things that I have nothing more than an emotional attachment to them.

Yet I am not.

Kentucky Derby Card Stakes Selections - Awesome! Super! Lucky?

Here we are. The biggest day of the year in the sport, the 1st Saturday of May. After the thrilling performances we witness on Friday, including the narrow victory of Blind Luck over Evening Jewel in the Kentucky Oaks, we come upon the big show. Unfortunately, mother nature is scheduled to be a bit of a party pooper on the big day, with massive and downright scary thunderstorms scheduled to hit at some point during the card. The weather will clearly have an effect on the track, so the selections here are made in mind for an off track and less than firm turf course in mind.
(If there are key scratches that occur, i will put any change of picks into the comments below.)

Race 6: Eight Belles S. - 7 and 1/2 furlongs

This sprint for three year old fillies has the shortest favorite among all the stakes in Hot Dixie Chick. This very fast filly will be winging from the gate and does look tough to beat. But this blog will try. Visavis cuts back after finding the 1m & 1/16 too far in the Kentucky Oaks. She has had three strong works in the interim, is bred to handle the slop and can rate just off the pace. The unique distance looks to be a good fit for this daughter of Indian Charlie. Hot Dixie Chick stretches out to furthest she has ever ran, but has immense talent and has run well on an off track before. Bell's Shoes, beside the obvious hunch play, also cuts back, attracts Calvin Bo-rail and looks like a horse who might be alright a this trip. She has never been on an off track, but could take to it.
Selections:
#7 Visavis
#2 Hot Dixie Chick.
#3 Bell's Shoes

Race 7: Distaff Turf Mile S. - 1 mile (Turf)

This tough race is an example for this blog in which can you take a shot based on track condition. Churchill Downs's turf course is known to play in favor of those inclined to run near the front. This is why this blog is taking a chance on Cure for Sale. This mare may not be the fastest horse in the race, but her combination of positional speed and positive results give her a great chance to pull the upset. Tizaqueena won this race last year under similar circumstances and is riding a two race win streak. She is a much use on your tickets. While Diamondrella is a deep closer, she is no longer owned by IEAH. This development, plus her good efforts on off turf, intrigues this blog enough to put her in the top 3.

Selections:
#8 Cure for Sale
#5 Tizaqueena
#7 Diamondrella

Race 8: Grade 1 Humana Distaff - 7 furlongs

The champion mare Informed Decision is the solid favorite in this race. But this blog will try to beat her, with the reasoning that she seems to pair up how she runs off the layoff, good or bad. Warbling is the choice to beat her. She can sit just off a fast pace, and she can handle the slop. She has had 3 good works in the interim and look ready to go. Mona Di Momma ships in from Socal after winning the Grade 3 Las Flores last out. She has worked well off her last race, but this is her first dirt, slop and run at the distance. Too many questions to put on top, but the form is good enough to suggest a chance.

Selections:
#2 Warbling
#3 Informed Decision
#10 Mona Di Momma

Race 9: Grade 2 Churchill Downs S. - 7 Furlongs

This blog is going for a price in this race. A big one. Atta Boy Roy ships in, stretches out and is coming in guns blazing with the workouts. He should handle the off surface and at 20/1 under Calvin Borel, he's worth a flyer. Ventana is good horse who has run into two horses who just freaked in Kinsale King, who came back and won the Golden Shaheen, and Bob Black Jack, who just ran them off their feet that day. If nothing else, this horse will have the jump on the third choice turning for home, Warrior's Reward is a stone cold closer who has won on this track in the expecting conditions. He has three steady works since he narrow victory over Musket Man in the Carter, hinting that he is holding his form.

Selections:
#9 Atta Boy Roy
#8 Ventana
#7 Warrior's Reward

Race 10: Grade 1 Woodford Reserve Turf Classic - 1m & 1/8 (turf)

This race is very tough because of the three horses who have showed some speed, which is crucial on the CD turf course when it wet, one does not like less the firm turf (Wise River), one has not been on the grass in a very long time (General Quarters) and one seems to have lost the "winstinct". Battle of Hastings is the one that seems to have the lost the will to win, but he is given one more chance. He has been working well and the mile an eighth could just what he needs to find the wire. General Quarters has run well on Polytrack, and given his position in the race turning for home, is worth a shot @ 8/1 ML. Court Vision is one of the few who has closed on a wet turf course, but i just don't think he get nothing more than a minor award

Selections:
#6 Battle of Hastings
#2 General Quarters
#3 Court Vision

Race 11: Grade 1 Kentucky Derby - 1m & 1/4

This year's Derby Trail has been like high school for this blog's author. In September, I thought I had found the one for the Derby in a horse named William's Kitten. He won an off the turf two turn stake on the Super Derby undercard, and by the time he hit the wire, it was love. We "dated" for a while, including when he came to visit for the Breeder' Cup Juvenile, in which he had a troubled trip. He then ran second to Super Saver in the Kentucky Jockey Club S., showing at least a likeness for the track. William's comeback race in the Holy Bull was good, in which he ran third while being much closer to the pace, showing some promise for bit of positional speed.

Then the news came that he was off the trail with an injury. It was deflating. It was like a break-up after your first serious relationship in high school. In the aftermath, you just shuffle the halls moping along, trying to fill a need, a hole in the soul left by the one who's gone. Then the dating process comes along where the search for a new love goes in weird places, with a wide net cast in the hope of latching on to someone. My list of "one-offs" included Backtalk, Rule, Super Saver, Interactif and Drosselmeyer. But none were a good fit.

The search was beginning to look fruitless, with the conclusion that maybe its okay to be that creepy loner dude who can't find love. Then, when it is least expected, "the one" appears out of nowhere. It comes from a place where you have recognized it, but only at a passing glance. Then, when you come face-to-face with it, it is obvious that the search is over. Endorsement was "the one". Coming from a race where I was tracking the 2nd and 3rd place finishers, in which he was the winner, his entry in the Sunland Derby was a sign to to pay attention. I knew the week before (scroll down to the comments and you'll see it) that he was live. Once he easily won the race, it was a lock that he would be my Derby pick. He then trained great going into the race, including having the best work of the contenders, according to DRF's Mike Welsch. Unfortunately in that work, he injured himself and had to have surgery.

Why did I bring all of that up? It is to show that right now, i feel like a person scrambling for a date right before prom, with only slim pickings to choose from, none of which are very attractive or interesting. I ended up on Awesome Act, who is bred not only for the off but the distance. he is inbred to Natalma, the dam of Northern Dancer, and could get a nice trip sitting 6-8 lengths off the pace. Paddy O'Prado had a great workout in the slop and could be sitting the "Smarty Jones" trip, 4th, sitting behind the pace. Super Saver is actually my 7th or 8th pick to win, but my number #1 choice for the place spot. Breeding, style and Borel all point to this being the winner. BUT his lack of passing ability relegates him to the place spot. Lookin at Lucky didn't get any breaks at the post position draw and i can't imagine a horse with his luck getting any sort of a good trip. There is one thing i am sure of: Sidney's Candy is not winning. No way, no how. No.

Selections:
#16 Awesome Act
#10 Paddy O'Prado
#4 Super Saver

So there it is. If you wish to see my live thoughts about the runners (or today's Hollywood Park card) follow my twitter feed here. Good luck everybody!