San Fernando Stakes + Some Video

To see the full thoughts from this blog on the Grade 2 San Fernando Stakes, please visit the Thorofan's Handicappers Corner, where this blogger goes over whether or not Tapizar can get an easy enough lead to take this field gate-to-wire. (Short version: The answer is "No".)

But before you go, take a look at what may become a new feature on this blog. Below are videos of the some of the contenders for this weekend's stakes action return to the barn after spending time schooling on Thursday (1/12). The first is of Tapizar, the second is of the Baffert-trained trio Prayer For Relief (San Fernando S.), Ellafitz (Paseana S.) and Candrea (Santa Ynez S.). Good luck this weekend folks.

Midnight Interlude Assumes His Role As The Drought Breaker

The Santa Anita Derby has been run, and Bob Baffert won it. If you would have told that to someone at the beginning of the meet, no one would have batted an eyelash at the statement. But if you had told that someone that he would win with a late-developing horse who didn't make his first start until Sunshine Millions Day, you would have been scoffed at as a fool. Furthermore, if you had told that someone that Victor Espinoza, the same Victor Espinoza who Baffert wanted hung from the grandstand after last year's Santa Anita Derby, you would be taken away to the insane asylum for such crazy talk. But yet that is exactly what happened, as the late-developing son of War Chant Midnight Interlude (right) took over in the final strides to win the Grade 1 $1,000,000 Santa Anita Derby.

After the scratches of both blog favorite Premier Pegasus and the other Baffert entrant Jaycito, the race was a wide open affair. Favoritism fell to El Camino Real Derby winner Silver Medallion, who went off at 5-2. He and Robert B Lewis winner Anthony's Cross were still alive for the Preakness 5.5, which would pay $5 million to the owner of any horse who could pull off a trio of wins. Silver Medallion had not run since the El Camino Real, had a change of ownership since the win, but was working well in the interim. Anthony's Cross had not run since the Lewis S., but had thrown bullets in numerous works. He went off as the 3rd choice at 3.30-1. The other buzz horse in the race was Mr. Commons, who had clockers agog with his works over at Hollywood Park after his first-level allowance race in late February. He would go off as the second choice in the race at 3-1.

Comma To The Top went right to the lead, with Silver Medallion sitting a length off. Midnight Interlude sat two lengths off the pace, with another length to Mr. Commons, and one more to Anthony's Cross after the first quarter. Down the backstretch Comma maintained control, with everyone staying about the same distance back from him through moderate middle fractions. As they turned for home, Comma maintained control, with Mr. Commons taking up the chase from Silver Medallion, with Midnight Interlude continuing on on the outside and Anthony's Cross gaining ground. At the wire, Midnight Interlude went by a tiring Mr. Commons and Silver Medallion to finally gun down Comma To The Top, who put in a game effort in defeat. Anthony's Cross finished a disappointing fifth. Bench Points did not lift a hoof finishing 7th.

Now Midnight Interlude must carry around the mantle of The Drought Breaker with him as he goes on to Kentucky Derby the first Saturday in May. He hopes to break the 22 year long drought that has existed since Sunday Silence puled the double back in 1989. He does have some things going for him. His jockey-trainer combo previously won the 2002 Derby with War Emblem. Bob and Victor had a falling out soon after that race, and the relationship hit a low point during last year's Santa Anita Derby, when Victor's mount almost put Bob's Lookin at Lucky over the rail, with Victor coming to blows with Lucky's jockey Garret Gomez. But with many other local jocks already engaged for the race, and Baffert's main jockey Martin Garcia already on derby favorite The Factor (and further engaged to ride Misremembered in the Oaklawn Handicap the same day), Victor had this mount fall into his lap. Now they are riding on a high towards the Twin Spires.

But M.I. has several things working against him, mainly one drought that extends all the way back to 1882. That 129 year gap is the time that has past since a horse won the Derby without a start at two. But if any man can overcome such a curse it is his multiple Derby winning trainer. Hr figured out how to win on synthetics. He figured out how to won stakes across the nation. He figured out how to win Grade 1's with a horse who had only race in 11 months. Surely he can figure a way to break this curse. Another problem is that M.I. pedigree is not the greatest for the 1m & 1/4. His sire War Chant lost the Santa Anita Derby, and was a miler. The damside does provide some additional hope he could get the distance, it does not exactly scream dirt. This blog's honest opinion is that while he is hopeful the drought will end, he doubts that it will happen.

The results of the race had other effects on the Derby situation as well. Comma To The Top's huge effort has caused his trainer Peter Miller to have second thoughts about them not pointing the horse towards the Derby, as they stated they previously would. Neither Silver Medallion, Anthony's Cross nor Mr. Commons likely earned enough money to make the Derby gate, with Silver Medallion having the most cumulative earnings among the three with a little more than $184k. If Comma To The Top does not go, as this blog hopes he does due to his slim chances and his draining effort in the race, the Santa Anita Derby will most likely have only one representative in Midnight Interlude.

So once again Baffert wins the big race of the meet, but this time under some less than Baffert-like circumstances. Midnight Interlude will carry the flag for southern California, and with it the hopes that the drought will finally be broken. Can he do it? We shall see come the first Saturday in May.

Big Cap Full of Controversy

The 74th Santa Anita Handicap had it all: drama, action, controversy, and in the end, a ground-breaking victory. A four-year old won the race as expected, and a horse who is eligible for a non-winners of two lifetime was second, but neither spot was filled by the horse expected to fill it. The favorites were off the board, and a parade of longshots filled the superfecta. Instead of the sweet coronation of Twirling Candy, the other "Dude" from the Bob Baffert barn hit the wire first over the horse who everyone last year was gaga over not being in the Kentucky Derby. Let's break down this scrum of a race.

First, here is the replay:


This blog watched the race from the walkway that separates the two levels of box seats on the finish line. The fractions were quick early on, with First Dude and Aggie Engineer on the lead after a half-mile, with Game On Dude just off. A tugging Twirling Candy and Setsuko (right) sat right behind them. After three-quarters, Game On Dude had moved up on the leaders, and Twirling Candy was four-wide a length back, with Setsuko on his outside. As they turn for home, First Dude and Aggie Engineer back out of it, with Game On Dude taking the lead four-wide. Twirling Candy and Setsuko made their move even wider out, and that is where the drama begins. The bumping that ensues will lead to a decision that will be debated for years. At the wire, Game On Dude just hangs on over Setsuko, with Quindici Man finishing third, Soul Candy fourth and Twirling Candy fading to fifth.

The inquiry light went up, and the replay repeated over and over on the jumbotron. The crowd buzzed with people arguing whether or not someone should be DQ'ed. This blog engaged in a lively discussion with several of his friends and some complete strangers about the incident, including one man who offered a proposition of $100 that the horse would be taken down. (This blog declined) After a lengthy inquiry, the stewards decided in a split decision that there would be no change to the order of finish. A cascade of boos rained down from the grandstand as Game On Dude (right) entered the winner's circle. Miss Sutherland required a four-guard escort back to the jocks room. The post-race interviews were drowned by the continued jeering of the crowd.

But this blog feels that the lack of a DQ was the right call. Why?

First, let's establish the runners at the 1:49 mark of the video. Game On Dude is on the inside, Twirling Candy is in the middle and Setsuko is on the outside. As the trio turns for home, Twirling takes a wider arc coming out of the turn than expected, causing him to push Setsuko slightly out. This kind of move happens in racing every day without disqualification. However, it is important to point out. Game On Dude takes the turn normal, and there is about a path of separation between him and Candy. As they straighten out in the stretch (4:30 mark on the video), Setsuko is bumped slightly by Twirling Candy. Rosario then pulls Candy towards the rail (and Game On Dude) to straighten out the horse and more importantly, to get Candy to change leads. This causes Candy to slowly drift to the right. When Rosario attempts to switch leads and Twirling Candy's back end comes around slightly, he and Game On Dude make contact at the exact moment G.O.D. is being whipped left-handed by Chantal, at the second whip strike. This leads to Twirling being pinballed between the two and backing out of the race.

Now, the fact that Twirling Candy had been pulling for most of the race up until that point lends to the belief that he was already giving his all when they turned for home. This is reinforced by Candy floating wide through the turn, with the subsequent bump with Setsuko as they straighten out, aiding this belief. When Rosario attempted to initiate the lead change, Candy's body reacted by drifting more than normal, causing his back end to lean further towards Game On Dude. This meant that when the contact was made, it caused G.O.D. to spin out more than normal. This exacerbated the visual effect of the bumping for the crowd, leading to the obvious negative reaction. Candy backed up, but this blog believes that too much of his problems were caused by him to warrant a disqualification. While this bump did affect Setsuko, he had every chance to win the race after the incident. If he maintains a straight course, he probably beats G.O.D. to the wire. But he lugs in from the 6-7 path all the way to the 2-3 path by the time they reach the wire. This ducking in cost him more ground than what he was beaten by at the wire.

There is my take. Agree? Disagree? Let me know in the comments below. For a different take on the race from someone else who witnessed the race live on track, please visit my fellow TBA blog member Amateurcapper, who states that G.O.D. should have been DQ'ed all the way to 5th, behind Twirling Candy.

The Bing Crosby Handicap - "Blast" Off!

This Sunday is the Grade 1 Bing Crosby Handicap going 6 furlongs at Del Mar over the Polytrack. The 65th running of this race has brought together a field of 7. The race is named after one of the co-founders of Del Mar, the venerable entertainer Bing Crosby. One of these horses will join such past winners as Lit de Justice, Thirty Slews and Kona Gold, each of which who went on to win the Breeders' Cup Sprint later that year. Last year's winner Zensational went off favored in the 2009 Breeders' Cup Sprint at Santa Anita.

Here is the field:

1 E Z's Gentleman Pedroza M 123 2-1
2 Sky Cape Talamo J 119 20-1
3 Scenic Blast (AUS) Smith M Shirreffs John 121 8-1
4 El Brujo Rosario J 119 8-1
5 Cost of Freedom Bejarano R 119 7-5
6 My Summer Slew Quinonez A 119 10-1
7 Smiling Tiger Espinoza V 115 5-1

The selection is #3 Scenic Blast (AUS). This Australian-born gelded son of the Sadler Well's sire Scenic has race across the globe in his native Australia, Japan, Hong Kong and the UK. He won grade 1 races in the UK and down under, but developed a bleeding problem that led to his importation to the states so he could run on the medication Lasix. he is now under the care of trainer John Shirreffs. Last time out in his first start in the states, he finished a credible 4th behind the #6 in the Robert Kerlan Memorial Handicap @ Hollywood Park going 6 furlongs over the turf. He was ridden then, as he will be today, by jockey Mike Smith. Today will mark his 1st start over the Poly, but this blog thinks he will take to it just fine.

"Blast" was 1st time Lasix in his last start, and that is part of the reason he is the selection. This blog is a firm believer that when it comes to geldings, 2nd-time Lasix, as the #3 is today, is the optimum time to bet the horse. He is also the only true closer in a filled with speed and just off the pace types. Furthermore, Blast is 2nd off the layoff, which this blog is very fond of using that angle. He is a ridiculous 8-1 morning line and is fully expected by post time to be a more realistic 4-1 or so.

#5 Cost of Freedom and #1 E Z Gentlemen are the only other Grade 1 winners in the field. Cost of Freedom won the Grade 3 L.A. Handicap last time out at 6f, beating both the #1 and the #6. He is pure speed, but did once rate just off wickedly fast fractions. He is 3 for 5 at Del Mar and has been working great in the interim for trainer John Sadler. (Below is his win in the L.A. Handicap)


E Z Gentelman came off of that 3/4 length defeat in the L.A. Handicap to win Grade 1 Triple Bend last time out going 7 furlongs. He drafted just to the inside of speedster M One Rifle, came up the rail and spurted away to win 3 and 1/4 lengths. He has worked a nice 5f in 59 & 3 over the track on Monday and looks to keep his string of good efforts going. (Below is his win in the Triple Bend Handicap)


#7 Smiling Tiger is the lone three year-old in the field, is trying to join previous 3 year old winners as King's Blade and Zensational. In his last race, he went gate to wire in the Grade 3 Laz Barrera going 7 furlongs versus 3 year olds @ Hollywood Park. He beat Concord Point, who is his next start broke the track record in winning the Grade 3 Iowa Derby. Tiger has come back to work swiftly, throwing several bullet workouts in preparation for the race. He is a need the lead type who has not showed the ability to pass, and he steps up to face older for the first time.

The others are: #6 My Summer Slew, who won the Kerlan defeating Scenic Blast last time out, but was defeated by both E Z Gentleman and Cost of Freedom in the L.A. Handicap; #4 El Brujo, who makes his first start in 2 months for new trainer Bob Baffert after being campaigned in the Midwest and Canada. All but one of his lifetime starts have been over the Polytrack, including both of his Grade 3 wins at Turfway and Keeneland, respectively; and #2 Sky Cape, who makes his first start in over a year, and appears to be outclassed, even if he brought his top effort.

There is the field for the Bing Crosby. Hopefully you will get the chance to "take a plane, take a train, take a car to Del Mar" to see the race live. Wherever you end up seeing this race, it should be a good, fast sprint that will hopefully will end with a "Blast"!