Hollywood Gold Cup - Swaps Thoughts

The Grade 1 Hollywood Gold Cup has a long, rich history that one of a field of eight hopes to add upon. Such great horses as Seabiscuit, Citation, Affirmed and Cigar have won this race in the past. The eight entrants have diverse path to get here for their chance for the win. From a former maiden claimer to a multiple graded stakes winner who looks to put it all together at the classic distance to an ageless veteran looking to defend his crown, these eight entrants all have a different path to here. The supporting stakes is the Grade 2 Swaps for three year olds, where Coil looks to add another stakes win notch to his belt before moving on to bigger and better races back east. We will start with the Swaps.

The Grade 2 Swaps Stakes (named for the California-bred winner of the 1955 Kentucky Derby and the 1956 Hollywood Gold Cup) will have a heavy favorite in Coil (right). This son of Point Given bulled his way to a win the Grade 3 Affirmed last time out over this track. He continued his strong work pattern in the interim and there seems to be no reason (at least on paper) that he will go down in defeat. His pedigree dictates the additional distance will be no problem to him, with a Belmont winner as his sire and multiple graded stakes winner at 12f as the damsire. The horse who is the most interesting prospect to upset is Boxeur Des Rues. This Doug O'Neill trainee won a first level allowance race last time out on the turf in solid time. The last time he ran over the synthetic, he bolted turning for home in his first two turn race. It looks like he has turned a corner, but this surface and the class are still major questions.

Now we turn the attention to the big one, the Hollywood Gold Cup. Twirling Candy figures to be the favorite in the race off his win in the Californian, where he rated off a dawdling pace and a tough trip to sweep to victory. (below)


Now he will stretch out another furlong once again in attempt to add to his Grade 1 win total. The expected tepid pace means that his best strategy (but one not likely employed) is to go straight to the lead from his rail draw, settle in front and then burst away in the stretch. If these tactics are not employed, Rosario could end up in an untenable position pinned down on the rail behind horses.

Many can take advantage if Twirling has a similar meltdown like the Big 'Cap. Second choice figures to be First Dude. He won the Alysheba last time out on the Kentucky Oaks undercard. He has reinvented himself as an off-the-pace type after several near misses last year. This will be the slowest pace he has to sit off since the tactics change and one has to wonder whether he has the punch to come home fast enough. He ran well over the Polytrack in the past, but until they run over the track, who knows how he will react to track. Game On Dude won the Santa Anita Handicap earlier in the year, but has had two bad losses since the win. He figures to end up on the lead (unless Twirling guns it) without any other pace in the race but who knows how he will react being in front so early. This is also his first race over the synthetic, so who knows if he will take to it, even if he has trained well over it.

There are others in the field who will take some attention. The mare Miss Match comes in off a third in the Vanity, but has never faced these types at this distance. Setsuko finished 2nd behind Twirling in the Californian and seems to do his best running as the distances increase, but is that because he is a grinder without a big kick? The old veteran and defending champ Awesome Gem ran 2nd in the Cornhusker just two weeks ago and was going so well that the connections decided to audible and run here as well. Soul Candy will try to close from the back of the pack, as will invader Dark Cove. Dark Cove has won twice over the Poly at Keeneland, but his musical chair jockeys continues with his 7th straight new pilot, this time obtaining the services of top jock Rafael Bejarano.

This blog is going with Coil and Dark Cove. Coil is the class of the field in the Swaps. Dark Cove appears to have the best kick among the closers, and with the expected slow pace, it could turn into a 1/2 mile sprint for home.

Good luck this weekend folks!

Santa Anita Meet End Awards

The 2010-2011 Santa Anita Winter-Spring meet is over, and it provided many highs and lows. From the scintillating performances on opening day to the painful lows of the the horses who did not survive the meet, this meet had a wide range of emotions. The efforts of some of the horses who ran deserve special acclaim. This post will celebrate a wide array of achievements, including which horse earned the Horse of The Meet honors according to this blog.

First up is the award for best claimer of the meet. The winner is Separate Forest (right). She climbed the ladder all the way from $25KN2L on the main track to a win in the Grade 3 Las Cienegas Handicap on Big Cap day over the heavily favored Unzip Me. This daughter of Forestry was claimed from the Richard Mandella barn by Doug O'Neill in her $25kN2L victory, and he quickly sent her up the ladder. The win in the Las Cienegas came only one week after she won an allowance race. She won four of her 6 starts, with her losses being in her first race of the meet in the Mandella barn in an allowance race and her 4th race, where she could not overcome a troubled trip. Congratulations to the connections who claimed her, making a shrewd decision.

The award for biggest disappointment is next, and it goes to the injury of Premier Pegasus on the Thursday before the Santa Anita Derby. This blog believed that he had a huge chance to be the one not only to break the 22 year long drought of no Santa Anita Derby winner going on to win the Kentucky Derby, but to end the 33 year end drought of not having a triple crown winner. His run in the San Felipe was devastating, and if he had won the Santa Anita Derby, he would be your current Kentucky Derby favorite. The Myung Kwon Cho barn suffered double the heartbreak this meet, as both PrePeg and Riveting Reason were knocked off the Derby trail with injuries. Hopefully they will come back from their maladies with the same energy and talent.

Next up is most impressive performance of the meet. There were several choices to choose from, with many of them coming in the maiden special weight ranks. The nominees are:
The Factor - Maiden special weight
Misremembered - Santana Mile
Maclean's Music - Maiden special weight win
Premier Pegasus - San Felipe Stakes
Runflatout - Maiden special weight

The winner is...


This son of Distorted Humor destroyed this group of maidens stylishly in his debut. He is now at Churchill Downs, along with the rest of the Steve Asmussen barn. Who knows what the future has in store for him. Maybe a start in the Derby Trial?

The next award is for most talked about race of the meet. That award goes to the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap. The drama-filled inquiry that followed stretched at least 13 minutes. In the end, there was no change, as Game On Dude was left up as the winner over Setsuko, with Quindici Man finishing third. In all the hubbub after the race that existed in social media after the decision, it is necessary to point out that almost all who wanted to disqualify Game On Dude wanted to place him fifth behind Twirling Candy, yet the only steward who voted to disqualify Game On Dude wanted to place him only as far back as second, behind Setsuko. This inquiry will live in the lore of this race, going along side the other much-talked about inquiries, the disqualification of The Wicked North in 1994 and the disqualification of Perrault in 1982.

The final award is for horse of the meet. The nominees are:
Cambina
Game On Dude
Malibu Pier
Midnight Interlude
Smiling Tiger

and the winner is...


CAMBINA!

This European import went three for four for the meet, with her only defeat being in her first start, which was heavily compromised by a loose horse who dropped the jockey at the start. The tiny filly went on to sweep the remaining three year old filly turf stakes, winning the Grade 3 La Habra, the China Doll and the Grade 2 Providencia Stakes. In a These races ranged from six & one-half furlong down the hill all the way to a mile and one-eighth. She won them all rolling from the back of the pack in dramatic style under jockey Garrett Gomez. This Jeff Bonde trainee (who also trains Smiling Tiger) could be pointed to races like the Del Mar Oaks later in the year. Maybe she can even become like another tiny filly who won the Providencia Stakes on her way to greater things, Megahertz.

So the books are closed on the Santa Anita meet, with some good performances, some iffy thoughts and plenty of fodder for people to talk about. Good luck to everybody as the scene shifts across town to the track of the lakes and flowers, Hollywood Park.

Big Cap Full of Controversy

The 74th Santa Anita Handicap had it all: drama, action, controversy, and in the end, a ground-breaking victory. A four-year old won the race as expected, and a horse who is eligible for a non-winners of two lifetime was second, but neither spot was filled by the horse expected to fill it. The favorites were off the board, and a parade of longshots filled the superfecta. Instead of the sweet coronation of Twirling Candy, the other "Dude" from the Bob Baffert barn hit the wire first over the horse who everyone last year was gaga over not being in the Kentucky Derby. Let's break down this scrum of a race.

First, here is the replay:


This blog watched the race from the walkway that separates the two levels of box seats on the finish line. The fractions were quick early on, with First Dude and Aggie Engineer on the lead after a half-mile, with Game On Dude just off. A tugging Twirling Candy and Setsuko (right) sat right behind them. After three-quarters, Game On Dude had moved up on the leaders, and Twirling Candy was four-wide a length back, with Setsuko on his outside. As they turn for home, First Dude and Aggie Engineer back out of it, with Game On Dude taking the lead four-wide. Twirling Candy and Setsuko made their move even wider out, and that is where the drama begins. The bumping that ensues will lead to a decision that will be debated for years. At the wire, Game On Dude just hangs on over Setsuko, with Quindici Man finishing third, Soul Candy fourth and Twirling Candy fading to fifth.

The inquiry light went up, and the replay repeated over and over on the jumbotron. The crowd buzzed with people arguing whether or not someone should be DQ'ed. This blog engaged in a lively discussion with several of his friends and some complete strangers about the incident, including one man who offered a proposition of $100 that the horse would be taken down. (This blog declined) After a lengthy inquiry, the stewards decided in a split decision that there would be no change to the order of finish. A cascade of boos rained down from the grandstand as Game On Dude (right) entered the winner's circle. Miss Sutherland required a four-guard escort back to the jocks room. The post-race interviews were drowned by the continued jeering of the crowd.

But this blog feels that the lack of a DQ was the right call. Why?

First, let's establish the runners at the 1:49 mark of the video. Game On Dude is on the inside, Twirling Candy is in the middle and Setsuko is on the outside. As the trio turns for home, Twirling takes a wider arc coming out of the turn than expected, causing him to push Setsuko slightly out. This kind of move happens in racing every day without disqualification. However, it is important to point out. Game On Dude takes the turn normal, and there is about a path of separation between him and Candy. As they straighten out in the stretch (4:30 mark on the video), Setsuko is bumped slightly by Twirling Candy. Rosario then pulls Candy towards the rail (and Game On Dude) to straighten out the horse and more importantly, to get Candy to change leads. This causes Candy to slowly drift to the right. When Rosario attempts to switch leads and Twirling Candy's back end comes around slightly, he and Game On Dude make contact at the exact moment G.O.D. is being whipped left-handed by Chantal, at the second whip strike. This leads to Twirling being pinballed between the two and backing out of the race.

Now, the fact that Twirling Candy had been pulling for most of the race up until that point lends to the belief that he was already giving his all when they turned for home. This is reinforced by Candy floating wide through the turn, with the subsequent bump with Setsuko as they straighten out, aiding this belief. When Rosario attempted to initiate the lead change, Candy's body reacted by drifting more than normal, causing his back end to lean further towards Game On Dude. This meant that when the contact was made, it caused G.O.D. to spin out more than normal. This exacerbated the visual effect of the bumping for the crowd, leading to the obvious negative reaction. Candy backed up, but this blog believes that too much of his problems were caused by him to warrant a disqualification. While this bump did affect Setsuko, he had every chance to win the race after the incident. If he maintains a straight course, he probably beats G.O.D. to the wire. But he lugs in from the 6-7 path all the way to the 2-3 path by the time they reach the wire. This ducking in cost him more ground than what he was beaten by at the wire.

There is my take. Agree? Disagree? Let me know in the comments below. For a different take on the race from someone else who witnessed the race live on track, please visit my fellow TBA blog member Amateurcapper, who states that G.O.D. should have been DQ'ed all the way to 5th, behind Twirling Candy.

The Belmont Stakes - A 2nd Box, a 3rd Game and An All to Top?

The field is set for the 142nd running of the Belmont Stakes, the 3rd and final jewel of the Triple Crown. 12 runners have entered the "Test of Champions", and with neither the Derby nor Preakness winner running, it is a wide open affair. The lukewarm 3-1 morning line favorite is #6 Ice Box, who finished an onrushing second in the Kentucky Derby. The 7-2 second choice is #11 First Dude, who finished a game second in the Preakness Stakes. Here is a brief run-through of the field through this blog's eyes.

#1 is the California invader Dave in Dixie. He last ran 9 weeks ago in the Illinois Derby, finishing a distant 5th behind Derby also-rans American Lion and Backtalk. He picks up jockey Calvin Borel for the race. He took a more than a month to work after his last race, but put together 4 good works, each increasing in distance building up to a one mile workout in a steady minute & 39 seconds. He has to answer not only the distance question, but the dirt question as well, as his first attempt on it was rather dismal.

#2 is the son of Distorted Humor Spangled Star. Last out 6 weeks ago, he finished 3rd in the one-turn Withers behind the 1-3 finishers of the Decathlon Stakes @ Monmouth, Ibboyee and Afleet Again. He looks to stretch out 4 furlongs to victory. He has been steadily working across town at Aqueduct. The owner said that he was just taking a shot in here, and this blog wonders why, as he never run anything close to fast enough to win this race. Will he pull off the massive upset? At least he gets top jockey Garett Gomez aboard to try.

#3 is the Fantasy Lane Stable Uptowncharlybrown. This son of Limehouse is now in the barn of trainer Kiaran McLaughlin after the tragic passing Alan Seewald days before the Lexington Stakes. UTCB has not run since that race 7 weeks ago. He will take the blinkers off for the race. He has been steadily working over the Belmont main track and will try to stretch out another 3 & 1/2 furlongs. With new jockey Rajiv Maragh, will he complete the dream for the Fantasy Lane stable?

#4 is Alexis Barba's Make Music For Me. This son of Bernstein snuck into the Derby field on entry day and came from dead last to run 4th. He has 4 steady works and will give Rosario his first ever mount in the Belmont. While the pedigree doesn't scream a mile and a half, he does have a sustained kick. Will it be as powerful with the added distance?

#5 is the first Zito entrant Fly Down. This son of 2003 Horse of the Year Mineshaft won the local prep for the Belmont in the Dwyer from dead last in a field of seven. He stretches out back to two turns in this race after getting distanced in the Louisiana Derby two starts back. He has had two nice works since the win, including a bullet 4f in 47 & 2 over the Saratoga training track on May 30th. His regular jockey stays with other barn entrant, so a more than capable Jorge Velazquez takes the mount.

#6 is the other Zito entrant Ice Box. The morning line favorite retains the services of jockey Jose Lezcano. Owner Robert Lapenta is trying to have one of his runners finish in the money in all three Triple Crown races (Ice Box in the Derby [2nd] & Jackson Bend in the Preakness [3rd] ). Several have said that with a cleaner trip, he might have won the Derby. He has worked twice since the Derby, including a bullet drill in his last work. He ran well off a 6 week layoff in has last start, so the 5 weeks should not be a problem. But will he find trouble once again?

#7 is Winstar Farm's Drosselmeyer. This son of Distorted Humor ran a distant 2nd to Fly Down in the Dwyer, but was reported to have a fever during the week leading up to the race, so he may have not been a 100% for the race. He has worked three times since then, including a bullet best of twelve 5f over this main track on Monday. He will have another new pilot in jockey Mike Smith. Can he finally put it together in a stakes race with the added distance thrown into the mix?

#8 is the Bob Baffert trainee Game On Dude. The winner of the Grade 3 Lone Star Derby in his last start, he has trained steadily over the Santa Anita Pro-ride. He worked a bullet 6 furlongs from the gate 1:12 &2/5 last time out. This son of Awesome Again will give Preakness winning jockey Martin Garcia his first Belmont mount. Can Baffert win 2/3rds of Triple Crown with two different horses ? The bigger question is how will G.O.D. handle the stretchout in distance.

#9 is Michael Maker's Stately Victor. He finished a well-beaten 8th in the Derby. This was after his shocking come-from-behind win in the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes, This son of 2004 Horse of the Year Ghostzapper has never run well on dirt in the past, and runs on dirt today. While he should have zero problem with the added distance, can he handle the surface? He has worked decently in the interim over the surface.

#10 is Stay Put, the first of two for the sire Distorted Humor. He will be ridden by his regular jockey Jamie Theriot. Stay Put won a race on the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs, but it was not the big one on the card. Instead it was an allowance race to open the card. His deep closing style may be a hindrance in this race, as there is not an abundance of speed. In both his stakes attempts, he has finished a closing fifth. Will the extra distance help him get up in deep stretch?

#11 is the Preakness runner-up First Dude. This son of Belmont winner Stephen Got Even had a good work in the interim and his trainer Dale Romans said that the horse could not be doing better. But Romans said that going into the Preakness with Derby 3rd place finisher and barnmate Paddy O'Prado, and he bounced. Could the same fate befall the "Dude"? With regular jockey Ramon Dominguez in the irons, he hopes to go all the way to the wire.

#12 is the Todd Pletcher charge Interactif. The other son of Broken Vow in the field, he has not run since a okay 4th place finish in the Blue Grass S. He has worked several times since, including his last four over the Belmont main. With new jockey Javier Castellano in the irons, he figures to make his run from a stalking position. Who knows how he will react to the increase in distance combined with the time off.

Now this blog will reveal whom this blog likes, starting with horse whom we believe will finish 3rd:
#8 Game On Dude
This blog thinks he will follow in the steps of another former Lone Star Derby winner Dynever and make a middle move and flattened out to finish third.

2nd:
#6 Ice Box
The more the blog looks over his past performances, the more the name "Denis of Cork" comes to mind. DoC finished 3rd in the 2008 Derby, then came back to run 2nd in the Belmont. Ice Box will make one late run, but will fall short in the stretch,

1st:
ALL
Yes, ALL. Now some of you are saying "cop-out" or "BS! Take a stand!", but this blog's past experience says that taking "ALL" is the correct selection. In the total 7 Belmonts that I have wagered on, i am 0-for-7 with my selection for the win spot. However, I am 6-for-7 with my selection for the place spot, and 4-for-7 with my selection for the show spot. So the keys for the blog will be underneath, and the hope is that a longshot pulls the upset with the two keys running 2nd and 3rd. This strategy is one that requires just as much luck as any other bet, but is a bit outside the box. Hopefully this blog has led you on the trail to a winning wager, and after the results are official, there will be a "glory walk" to the window in your future. Good luck everybody!