Santa Anita Handicap day has arrived with three grade 1 races in tow. They anchor the card as the last three races of the day, with the big one going off as the finale. Along with a food truck festival and other good things in the infield, it figures to be a good crowd on hand. Here are some brief thoughts on each stake:
Grade 1 Las Virgenes Stakes - One Mile - 3yo fillies
The first grade one on the card is for the fillies. This is the first grade one in the division this year and a prep for the Santa Anita Oaks next month. The wagering will be all over place with many options to place your wager. A 3yo race this time of year in SoCal without a Baffert trainee would be like a Los Angeles summer without sun (i.e. a shock). His charge is Eden's Moon. She won a maiden race by open lengths when stretched out to this distance last time out. She was forced to miss the Saint Ysabel S. due to minor illness, but she has worked swiftly since with several bullet workouts. But she will not get the lead. That will be Reneesgotzip. This daughter of City Zip has shown blazing speed each time out. She will be stretching out around two turns for the first time today. Made To Love Her finished behind Renee last time out in the Santa Ynez. She tries two turns on dirt for the first time today as well. Killer Graces is a grade 1 winner across town, but she seems to run better at Hollywood Park then on the dirt. This blog is going to pick Made To Love Her to take a stab at a price. In past years, this blog's pick has been finished second in this race more often than not, so maybe a backwheel exacta is in order?
Grade 1 Frank E. Kilroe Mile - One Mile (TURF) - 4yo & up
Mr. Commons figures to be a heavy favorite against this field of eight. He has been well liked and well-championed by people as the "next big thing". He has strung together two straight wins at the meet, winning the Sir Beaufort (over Big 'Cap favorite Ultimate Eagle) and the Arcadia last time out, winning his first race against older. Jeranimo has beaten the favorite on this course at this trip just back in October. He has been working across town in steady fashion. He does need to come back off a subpar effort in the San Gabriel Handicap, though he was in an uncustomary spot (the lead) early on in the race. Mega Heat is 5-for-9 lifetime and improving each and every start after being dropped in for a tag back in August. Compari figures to be on the lead for today, and he has shown that he has no problem leading the field on a futile chase. The pick is Jeranimo, as he will be a better price and is probably as good an animal as the favorite. Mega Heat can offer value underneath.
Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap - One Mile & One-Quarter - 4yo & up
Setsuko. A horse whose name has been cursed, bellowed, and defamed over the last two years as his near misses in and exclusions from races have caused strife from others. This blog has witnessed this from afar as the horse, while talented and a real looker, never really interested as a betting concern. This blog has witnessed him school & race for three seasons now, but not until before his last race was their a change. Setsuko was gelded after his loss in the Pacific Classic. With that simple act, it seems that light has finally come on mentally for this horse. From the way he schools to the way he acts in the paddock, there is a subtle change for the better in his mannerisms. His "hanging" problem has seemingly been cut away with the ultimate equipment change. This blog witnessed (and had video of before his camera was stolen) him bouncing back to the barn after his win last time out, acting like the race took nothing out of him. His energy levels caught the eye of everyone who saw him cross their path as they were heading out for the night. The distance is not a problem as well. All of that is why he is the "ALL IN" pick. Either this blog will go home happy or broke.
Good luck folks!
Showing posts with label Santa Anita Handicap. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Santa Anita Handicap. Show all posts
Saturday, March 3, 2012
Monday, March 7, 2011
Big Cap Full of Controversy
The 74th Santa Anita Handicap had it all: drama, action, controversy, and in the end, a ground-breaking victory. A four-year old won the race as expected, and a horse who is eligible for a non-winners of two lifetime was second, but neither spot was filled by the horse expected to fill it. The favorites were off the board, and a parade of longshots filled the superfecta. Instead of the sweet coronation of Twirling Candy, the other "Dude" from the Bob Baffert barn hit the wire first over the horse who everyone last year was gaga over not being in the Kentucky Derby. Let's break down this scrum of a race.
First, here is the replay:
This blog watched the race from the walkway that separates the two levels of box seats on the finish line. The fractions were quick early on, with First Dude and Aggie Engineer on the lead after a half-mile, with Game On Dude just off. A tugging Twirling Candy and Setsuko (right) sat right behind them. After three-quarters, Game On Dude had moved up on the leaders, and Twirling Candy was four-wide a length back, with Setsuko on his outside. As they turn for home, First Dude and Aggie Engineer back out of it, with Game On Dude taking the lead four-wide. Twirling Candy and Setsuko made their move even wider out, and that is where the drama begins. The bumping that ensues will lead to a decision that will be debated for years. At the wire, Game On Dude just hangs on over Setsuko, with Quindici Man finishing third, Soul Candy fourth and Twirling Candy fading to fifth.
The inquiry light went up, and the replay repeated over and over on the jumbotron. The crowd buzzed with people arguing whether or not someone should be DQ'ed. This blog engaged in a lively discussion with several of his friends and some complete strangers about the incident, including one man who offered a proposition of $100 that the horse would be taken down. (This blog declined) After a lengthy inquiry, the stewards decided in a split decision that there would be no change to the order of finish. A cascade of boos rained down from the grandstand as Game On Dude (right) entered the winner's circle. Miss Sutherland required a four-guard escort back to the jocks room. The post-race interviews were drowned by the continued jeering of the crowd.
But this blog feels that the lack of a DQ was the right call. Why?
First, let's establish the runners at the 1:49 mark of the video. Game On Dude is on the inside, Twirling Candy is in the middle and Setsuko is on the outside. As the trio turns for home, Twirling takes a wider arc coming out of the turn than expected, causing him to push Setsuko slightly out. This kind of move happens in racing every day without disqualification. However, it is important to point out. Game On Dude takes the turn normal, and there is about a path of separation between him and Candy. As they straighten out in the stretch (4:30 mark on the video), Setsuko is bumped slightly by Twirling Candy. Rosario then pulls Candy towards the rail (and Game On Dude) to straighten out the horse and more importantly, to get Candy to change leads. This causes Candy to slowly drift to the right. When Rosario attempts to switch leads and Twirling Candy's back end comes around slightly, he and Game On Dude make contact at the exact moment G.O.D. is being whipped left-handed by Chantal, at the second whip strike. This leads to Twirling being pinballed between the two and backing out of the race.
Now, the fact that Twirling Candy had been pulling for most of the race up until that point lends to the belief that he was already giving his all when they turned for home. This is reinforced by Candy floating wide through the turn, with the subsequent bump with Setsuko as they straighten out, aiding this belief. When Rosario attempted to initiate the lead change, Candy's body reacted by drifting more than normal, causing his back end to lean further towards Game On Dude. This meant that when the contact was made, it caused G.O.D. to spin out more than normal. This exacerbated the visual effect of the bumping for the crowd, leading to the obvious negative reaction. Candy backed up, but this blog believes that too much of his problems were caused by him to warrant a disqualification. While this bump did affect Setsuko, he had every chance to win the race after the incident. If he maintains a straight course, he probably beats G.O.D. to the wire. But he lugs in from the 6-7 path all the way to the 2-3 path by the time they reach the wire. This ducking in cost him more ground than what he was beaten by at the wire.
There is my take. Agree? Disagree? Let me know in the comments below. For a different take on the race from someone else who witnessed the race live on track, please visit my fellow TBA blog member Amateurcapper, who states that G.O.D. should have been DQ'ed all the way to 5th, behind Twirling Candy.
First, here is the replay:
This blog watched the race from the walkway that separates the two levels of box seats on the finish line. The fractions were quick early on, with First Dude and Aggie Engineer on the lead after a half-mile, with Game On Dude just off. A tugging Twirling Candy and Setsuko (right) sat right behind them. After three-quarters, Game On Dude had moved up on the leaders, and Twirling Candy was four-wide a length back, with Setsuko on his outside. As they turn for home, First Dude and Aggie Engineer back out of it, with Game On Dude taking the lead four-wide. Twirling Candy and Setsuko made their move even wider out, and that is where the drama begins. The bumping that ensues will lead to a decision that will be debated for years. At the wire, Game On Dude just hangs on over Setsuko, with Quindici Man finishing third, Soul Candy fourth and Twirling Candy fading to fifth.
The inquiry light went up, and the replay repeated over and over on the jumbotron. The crowd buzzed with people arguing whether or not someone should be DQ'ed. This blog engaged in a lively discussion with several of his friends and some complete strangers about the incident, including one man who offered a proposition of $100 that the horse would be taken down. (This blog declined) After a lengthy inquiry, the stewards decided in a split decision that there would be no change to the order of finish. A cascade of boos rained down from the grandstand as Game On Dude (right) entered the winner's circle. Miss Sutherland required a four-guard escort back to the jocks room. The post-race interviews were drowned by the continued jeering of the crowd.But this blog feels that the lack of a DQ was the right call. Why?
First, let's establish the runners at the 1:49 mark of the video. Game On Dude is on the inside, Twirling Candy is in the middle and Setsuko is on the outside. As the trio turns for home, Twirling takes a wider arc coming out of the turn than expected, causing him to push Setsuko slightly out. This kind of move happens in racing every day without disqualification. However, it is important to point out. Game On Dude takes the turn normal, and there is about a path of separation between him and Candy. As they straighten out in the stretch (4:30 mark on the video), Setsuko is bumped slightly by Twirling Candy. Rosario then pulls Candy towards the rail (and Game On Dude) to straighten out the horse and more importantly, to get Candy to change leads. This causes Candy to slowly drift to the right. When Rosario attempts to switch leads and Twirling Candy's back end comes around slightly, he and Game On Dude make contact at the exact moment G.O.D. is being whipped left-handed by Chantal, at the second whip strike. This leads to Twirling being pinballed between the two and backing out of the race.
Now, the fact that Twirling Candy had been pulling for most of the race up until that point lends to the belief that he was already giving his all when they turned for home. This is reinforced by Candy floating wide through the turn, with the subsequent bump with Setsuko as they straighten out, aiding this belief. When Rosario attempted to initiate the lead change, Candy's body reacted by drifting more than normal, causing his back end to lean further towards Game On Dude. This meant that when the contact was made, it caused G.O.D. to spin out more than normal. This exacerbated the visual effect of the bumping for the crowd, leading to the obvious negative reaction. Candy backed up, but this blog believes that too much of his problems were caused by him to warrant a disqualification. While this bump did affect Setsuko, he had every chance to win the race after the incident. If he maintains a straight course, he probably beats G.O.D. to the wire. But he lugs in from the 6-7 path all the way to the 2-3 path by the time they reach the wire. This ducking in cost him more ground than what he was beaten by at the wire.
There is my take. Agree? Disagree? Let me know in the comments below. For a different take on the race from someone else who witnessed the race live on track, please visit my fellow TBA blog member Amateurcapper, who states that G.O.D. should have been DQ'ed all the way to 5th, behind Twirling Candy.
Saturday, March 5, 2011
Santa Anita Handicap / Kilroe Mile
The first Saturday in March brings along one of the tent poles of the Santa Anita meet, the Grade 1 $750k Santa Anita Handicap going a mile and a 1/4 on the main track. Such superb horses such as John Henry, Alysheba, Affirmed, Seabiscuit and Spectacular Bid. In recent times, horses such as Tiznow and Lava Man have won the race. This is the classic test for older males in the winter, and this year's rendition brings together an interesting lot with a potential superstar in the making in the race. The undercard has two more Grade 1 races, the Frank E. Kilroe Mile at a mile on the grass, and the Santa Anita Oaks going 1m & 1/16th on the main track. Since we touched on the Oaks in the Drought Report, we'll begin the discussion with the Kilroe Mile.
The Frank E. Kilroe Mile is the first Grade 1 on the grass on the west coast, and the field of ten is a competitive lot. The favorite will probably be Caracortado, who last time out won the Sunshine Millions Turf last out. This son of Cat Dreams has transformed from a front-runner earlier on in his career to now a deep-closing type. He is cutting back an 1/8th of a mile today, and brings three swift works in tow. Fluke looks to improve of his narrow loss last year in this race, and looks to maintain his fine form. He won the prep for this race, the Grade 3 Thunder Road. He figures to get a good stalking trip off the leaders. Jeranimo (right) looks to shake off his poor effort in the Sunshine Millions Turf last out. He was found out to be a little sick after the race, and with the additional issue of his sale falling-through, this blog believes that race was just too bad to be true, and he is the selection. With 3 good works since the race, he appears to have bounced back fine. Though he loses his jockey to Fluke, he has a more than adequate replacement in David Flores. Also in the race are graded stakes winners on the grass Liberian Freighter, Acclamation and Gallant Son.
The favorite for the Big 'Cap is Twirling Candy (right). He is trying to join such recent horses such as Rock Hard Ten and Southern Image, who won both the 7 furlong Malibu and the 10 furlong Santa Anita Handicap in the same meet. This son of Candy Ride effortlessly beat his competitors in his prep for the race, the Grade 2 Strub Stakes. He has trained well since the race, with 3 good works. He is facing older for just the second time in his career however, with his first start being a disastrous fourth in the Goodwood Stakes last October. The first half of the powerful Sadler punch will be sitting just off the pace. This blog believes he has matured since that race, and he appears to be ready to take the last step towards his ascent to the top of the older male division.
The Bob Baffert barn has four shots to defeating the favorite. First Dude is the new shooter, having been recently transferred into the barn after a fourth-place finish in the Sunshine Millions Classic at Gulfstream Park. Baffert hopes to shake up him out of his non-winning rut, with this son Stephen Got Even almost earning $900k without winning nothing more than a maiden race. He has three typical snappy works since joining the barn, and with last year's winning jockey Martin Garcia (aboard Misremembered) in the irons, maybe he'll finally get his elusive stakes win. Game On Dude returned off the layoff from his 4th-place finish in the Belmont to win an allowance race last time out, and this blog think he has a big chance to be the "dude" with the best finish behind Twirling Candy. Tweebster finished second behind Twirling Candy in the Strub Stakes last out, but looks to be in tough. Spurrier hopes to be making an effort from the back of the pack, though the track's current nature is against him.
Among the rest, the other half of the strong Sadler two-step is Gladding, who won the Grade 2 San Antonio last out over fellow entrants Spurrier, Pode Ir, Quindici Man and Aggie Engineer and looks to have the best chance among the field to defeat his stablemate with a similar trip to Twirling Candy. The Gallagher barn has two shots with the stretch-running Soul Candy and the multiple graded stakes winning Aggie Engineer, who suffered through a questionable ride in the San Antonio.
Today is a big day for the Southern California racing scene. A strong field in the Kilroe Mile and an interesting field in the Santa Anita Oaks helps support an already great card anchored by the Santa Anita Handicap. Can Fluke avenge his narrow loss, or will Jeranimo jump back into the picture? Will Twirling Candy live up to heavy favoritism and assert his claim to the older male title, or will a Dude upset the plans? We shall see. Good luck everybody!
The Frank E. Kilroe Mile is the first Grade 1 on the grass on the west coast, and the field of ten is a competitive lot. The favorite will probably be Caracortado, who last time out won the Sunshine Millions Turf last out. This son of Cat Dreams has transformed from a front-runner earlier on in his career to now a deep-closing type. He is cutting back an 1/8th of a mile today, and brings three swift works in tow. Fluke looks to improve of his narrow loss last year in this race, and looks to maintain his fine form. He won the prep for this race, the Grade 3 Thunder Road. He figures to get a good stalking trip off the leaders. Jeranimo (right) looks to shake off his poor effort in the Sunshine Millions Turf last out. He was found out to be a little sick after the race, and with the additional issue of his sale falling-through, this blog believes that race was just too bad to be true, and he is the selection. With 3 good works since the race, he appears to have bounced back fine. Though he loses his jockey to Fluke, he has a more than adequate replacement in David Flores. Also in the race are graded stakes winners on the grass Liberian Freighter, Acclamation and Gallant Son.The favorite for the Big 'Cap is Twirling Candy (right). He is trying to join such recent horses such as Rock Hard Ten and Southern Image, who won both the 7 furlong Malibu and the 10 furlong Santa Anita Handicap in the same meet. This son of Candy Ride effortlessly beat his competitors in his prep for the race, the Grade 2 Strub Stakes. He has trained well since the race, with 3 good works. He is facing older for just the second time in his career however, with his first start being a disastrous fourth in the Goodwood Stakes last October. The first half of the powerful Sadler punch will be sitting just off the pace. This blog believes he has matured since that race, and he appears to be ready to take the last step towards his ascent to the top of the older male division.The Bob Baffert barn has four shots to defeating the favorite. First Dude is the new shooter, having been recently transferred into the barn after a fourth-place finish in the Sunshine Millions Classic at Gulfstream Park. Baffert hopes to shake up him out of his non-winning rut, with this son Stephen Got Even almost earning $900k without winning nothing more than a maiden race. He has three typical snappy works since joining the barn, and with last year's winning jockey Martin Garcia (aboard Misremembered) in the irons, maybe he'll finally get his elusive stakes win. Game On Dude returned off the layoff from his 4th-place finish in the Belmont to win an allowance race last time out, and this blog think he has a big chance to be the "dude" with the best finish behind Twirling Candy. Tweebster finished second behind Twirling Candy in the Strub Stakes last out, but looks to be in tough. Spurrier hopes to be making an effort from the back of the pack, though the track's current nature is against him.
Among the rest, the other half of the strong Sadler two-step is Gladding, who won the Grade 2 San Antonio last out over fellow entrants Spurrier, Pode Ir, Quindici Man and Aggie Engineer and looks to have the best chance among the field to defeat his stablemate with a similar trip to Twirling Candy. The Gallagher barn has two shots with the stretch-running Soul Candy and the multiple graded stakes winning Aggie Engineer, who suffered through a questionable ride in the San Antonio.
Today is a big day for the Southern California racing scene. A strong field in the Kilroe Mile and an interesting field in the Santa Anita Oaks helps support an already great card anchored by the Santa Anita Handicap. Can Fluke avenge his narrow loss, or will Jeranimo jump back into the picture? Will Twirling Candy live up to heavy favoritism and assert his claim to the older male title, or will a Dude upset the plans? We shall see. Good luck everybody!
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