New Madrid, MO is a tiny town (Pop 3,400) on the banks of the Mississippi River about halfway between Oaklawn Park & Churchill Downs. It lies at the spot where Missouri, Kentucky and Tennessee all meet. One of its claims to fame is that it is the oldest city west of the Mississippi. Another claim is that it was the site of a over a thousand earthquakes in 1811-1812, some that may have reached a magnitude 8.0 or higher on the Richter scale. While not as big a shock as an earthquake, a win would by New Madrid in the Arkansas Derby would cause some shockwaves.
New Madrid [Rock Hard Ten - Back to Earth (Theatrical)] has just a maiden win to his name, and with only three lifetime starts, is a rather unlikely Derby contender. But this colt is improving and should relish the stretch-out to a mile and a eighth Saturday. His trainer Tim Ice was down this path before last year, with a unheralded son of Birdstone (A first-crop sire last year just as Rock Hard Ten is this year) that only had a maiden win to his name, Summer Bird. With that experience behind Ice, New Madrid should benefit from what he learned last year.
While Summer Bird was a deep closer, New Madrid is a presser, sitting just off the pace. He should have a great trip behind Super Saver, Line of David and perhaps Uh Oh Bango. He will need a great trip, with the cutoff for graded stakes earnings standing right now at $215,000, before this weekend's preps. A win will be the only way to assure a starting spot in the gate for the 1st Saturday in May. He will have to hold off top contenders Noble's Promise and Dublin to secure the victory.
But the real reason this blog brings attention to this 20-1 longshot is who beat him in his start two back, where he finished second. That horse would be Endorsement, who this blog is very high on as a Derby contender. A strong effort would do nothing but enhance the resume of him. New Madrid's maiden breaker has already had at least one next-out winner, the Bob Baffert trained Broken Tango.
Is New Madrid biting of too much, too soon? Maybe, but this blog is willing to give him a fighting chance to rise from the ranks of "Derby hopefuls" to "Derby contenders".
Friday, April 9, 2010
Wednesday, April 7, 2010
Ten's 10 for the Derby - The Derby Alphabet Starts with the Letter "E"
With the performances in last week's Derby preps, several horses have moved up and down the top 10. But one performance has completely changed the dynamic of this list. Instead of a standard top ten list this week, we shall list the derby hopefuls by the grade given to their chances instead. But the Derby alphabet is a little different than the normal ABC's. It starts with an "E", as in:
The "E" horses:
Eskendereya: With his scintillating victory in the Wood Memorial, he has become the de facto favorite for the Derby. Disproving the worries about him being off 6 weeks and skipping what appeared to be a weak edition of the Florida Derby, he emphatically earned his way into the Derby. His two prep wins are among the, if not the best, prep wins along the trail. He is Todd Pletcher's best chance to finally get off the schneid. The only worries are that is that he likes to be near the pace, but will the expected fast splits be too quick to attend?
Endorsement: The horse who two weeks ago was consider the low man on the Winstar Farm depth chart stampeded his way into the Derby with his Sunland Derby victory two weeks ago. This son of Distorted Humor set a stakes record in the process, and the extra furlong will not be a factor. He admittedly beat a suspect field, but the "how" is more important than the "whom" this time of year. The fears of a bounce, or the fact that the Derby will only be his 5th start, are valid, but 3 year-olds can blossom overnight. Can this late bloomer be the exception to the rule?
The "B" Horses:
Lookin At Lucky: The 2009 Eclipse Award winner had a nightmare trip in the Santa Anita Derby when he was pinched back in the far turn. Would he have caught Sidney's Candy? Maybe, but the fact that Gomez had to work hard to get him up for third worries more than the trouble itself. He reportedly looked great this week on track while out for a jog and will probably work sometime in the next week. Will his knack for trouble come back to haunt him on Derby Day?
The "C" Horses:
Awesome Act: The horse who had the second worst trip of last week, behind Lucky, has to step it up to beat "Esky" after that one beat him soundly. Why was Leparoux under orders to strangle the horse back in the Wood? Did he bounce a little as well? While he will be entering the Derby on the classic 'third start off the layoff', will it be enough?
Ice Box: The hard charging winner of the Florida Derby will be off 6 weeks before the Derby. He had an easy half-mile workout in :49 B at the Palm Meadows Training facility on Saturday. People have talked about his win was a perfect set-up, but the way this year's Derby field is looking, won't he get the same set-up?
Interactif: He gets his chance to punch his ticket for the Derby this Saturday in the Blue Grass. This Todd Pletcher trainee has had only one okay work in the interim since his game 2nd in the San Felipe. While he has a win on the dirt, is it his best surface?
Odysseus: His heart and his running style are the only reasons he resides at this level. He is entered in the Blue Grass on Saturday, and needs to run no worse than third to secure his spot in the starting gate May 1. But why are his connections running him here instead of the Arkansas Derby, which appears to be a much easier spot?
The "D" Horses:
Sidney's Candy: Two graded derby preps, two easy leads. The winner of the Santa Anita Derby stole the race with an easy half-mile on the lead, then spurted clear late, going sub :36 the final 3/16th. But with the high amount of need the lead speed, including confirmed lead-or-bust American Lion, his chances are bound to be compromised, aren't they?
Mission Impazible: The Louisiana Derby winner once again earns his spot on here due that win only. His pace attending style might be problematic come Derby day, if he is unlucky with the post position draw. Will he have the needed kick while adding an eighth of a mile in distance?
Dublin: Any number of horses could have gone in this spot, but i chose him as he is running this weekend in the Arkansas Derby. He gets a positive jockey switch back to Terry Thompson, a trainer who knows a thing or ten about the Derby and gets another eighth of mile to unleash his kick. But is he good enough to turn the tables on Noble's Promise and then move up even more three weeks later?
With the last of the major preps this weekend being run in Hot Springs, AR and Lexington, KY the Derby picture will come into a much clearer focus. Hopefully. Maybe. Fingers crossed.
The "E" horses:
Eskendereya: With his scintillating victory in the Wood Memorial, he has become the de facto favorite for the Derby. Disproving the worries about him being off 6 weeks and skipping what appeared to be a weak edition of the Florida Derby, he emphatically earned his way into the Derby. His two prep wins are among the, if not the best, prep wins along the trail. He is Todd Pletcher's best chance to finally get off the schneid. The only worries are that is that he likes to be near the pace, but will the expected fast splits be too quick to attend?
Endorsement: The horse who two weeks ago was consider the low man on the Winstar Farm depth chart stampeded his way into the Derby with his Sunland Derby victory two weeks ago. This son of Distorted Humor set a stakes record in the process, and the extra furlong will not be a factor. He admittedly beat a suspect field, but the "how" is more important than the "whom" this time of year. The fears of a bounce, or the fact that the Derby will only be his 5th start, are valid, but 3 year-olds can blossom overnight. Can this late bloomer be the exception to the rule?
The "B" Horses:
Lookin At Lucky: The 2009 Eclipse Award winner had a nightmare trip in the Santa Anita Derby when he was pinched back in the far turn. Would he have caught Sidney's Candy? Maybe, but the fact that Gomez had to work hard to get him up for third worries more than the trouble itself. He reportedly looked great this week on track while out for a jog and will probably work sometime in the next week. Will his knack for trouble come back to haunt him on Derby Day?
The "C" Horses:
Awesome Act: The horse who had the second worst trip of last week, behind Lucky, has to step it up to beat "Esky" after that one beat him soundly. Why was Leparoux under orders to strangle the horse back in the Wood? Did he bounce a little as well? While he will be entering the Derby on the classic 'third start off the layoff', will it be enough?
Ice Box: The hard charging winner of the Florida Derby will be off 6 weeks before the Derby. He had an easy half-mile workout in :49 B at the Palm Meadows Training facility on Saturday. People have talked about his win was a perfect set-up, but the way this year's Derby field is looking, won't he get the same set-up?
Interactif: He gets his chance to punch his ticket for the Derby this Saturday in the Blue Grass. This Todd Pletcher trainee has had only one okay work in the interim since his game 2nd in the San Felipe. While he has a win on the dirt, is it his best surface?
Odysseus: His heart and his running style are the only reasons he resides at this level. He is entered in the Blue Grass on Saturday, and needs to run no worse than third to secure his spot in the starting gate May 1. But why are his connections running him here instead of the Arkansas Derby, which appears to be a much easier spot?
The "D" Horses:
Sidney's Candy: Two graded derby preps, two easy leads. The winner of the Santa Anita Derby stole the race with an easy half-mile on the lead, then spurted clear late, going sub :36 the final 3/16th. But with the high amount of need the lead speed, including confirmed lead-or-bust American Lion, his chances are bound to be compromised, aren't they?
Mission Impazible: The Louisiana Derby winner once again earns his spot on here due that win only. His pace attending style might be problematic come Derby day, if he is unlucky with the post position draw. Will he have the needed kick while adding an eighth of a mile in distance?
Dublin: Any number of horses could have gone in this spot, but i chose him as he is running this weekend in the Arkansas Derby. He gets a positive jockey switch back to Terry Thompson, a trainer who knows a thing or ten about the Derby and gets another eighth of mile to unleash his kick. But is he good enough to turn the tables on Noble's Promise and then move up even more three weeks later?
With the last of the major preps this weekend being run in Hot Springs, AR and Lexington, KY the Derby picture will come into a much clearer focus. Hopefully. Maybe. Fingers crossed.
Friday, April 2, 2010
An Endorsement for Rabbits, aka the Winstar Lead-Out Train
Besides being a horse racing lover, i am also a huge fan of road cycling. (Like the Tour de France) I love watching seriously trained athletes fly at high speeds using nothing but themselves as the motor. One of the best sights in the sport is when there is a sprint finish at the end of a stage. If the team has a strong finisher for the sprint, the team might consider setting up a lead-out train. This consist of one or more riders riding in front of the sprinter to ensure a high pace while providing a wind break. One of the best at doing this team Liquigas. (if you have ever seen any road cycling, they are the Neon yellow wearing team)
Here is a video to show what i mean:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bd7xPe5k08w
Note how at 1:16, the neon yellow jerseys get in position, and how they lead out the their sprinter, Daniele Bennati, who wins this particular stage.
The reason i bring up this up is that Horse racing use to employ similar tactics by the use of the rabbit. Horse racing has a history of using rabbits in races to ensure a strong pace. Usually the rabbit is a horse who is owned by the same owners as the star of the owners. There have been many great examples of rabbits over the years. Damascus had Hedvar; Gallant Man had Bold Nero; Buckpasser had Great Power (Durso, http://tiny.cc/d6lx8 ) Even in more recent times, Breeders' Cup Turf winner had a rabbit employed in either Shake The Bank or Icy Atlantic. The practice is still very prevalent in Europe.
Winstar Farm is the unique position of being able to reproduce a version of the "lead-out train" for their Derby horse Endorsement (and Drosselmeyer if were able to get in to the Derby.) With three confirmed speed types in Rule, Super Saver and American Lion, in theory they could set it up so that one of their horses goes to the lead for the half mile, then have another take over for half mile, then have the last one take over for an eighth and give Endorsement a perfect set-up to take over for the final furlong.
Now, i know that there are several problems with this idea: That the pace set-up will not only help Endorsement, but every other non-speed horse in the field. That it might be considering "unethical". That using the horse as a rabbit is not good for the horse. Those concerns are valid and i really cannot say that the do not bug me a bit as well.
But this is just an idea that if nothing else, would look rather cool to see as the head down the backstretch the first Saturday in May, the Winstar Train rolling along.
Here is a video to show what i mean:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bd7xPe5k08w
Note how at 1:16, the neon yellow jerseys get in position, and how they lead out the their sprinter, Daniele Bennati, who wins this particular stage.
The reason i bring up this up is that Horse racing use to employ similar tactics by the use of the rabbit. Horse racing has a history of using rabbits in races to ensure a strong pace. Usually the rabbit is a horse who is owned by the same owners as the star of the owners. There have been many great examples of rabbits over the years. Damascus had Hedvar; Gallant Man had Bold Nero; Buckpasser had Great Power (Durso, http://tiny.cc/d6lx8 ) Even in more recent times, Breeders' Cup Turf winner had a rabbit employed in either Shake The Bank or Icy Atlantic. The practice is still very prevalent in Europe.
Winstar Farm is the unique position of being able to reproduce a version of the "lead-out train" for their Derby horse Endorsement (and Drosselmeyer if were able to get in to the Derby.) With three confirmed speed types in Rule, Super Saver and American Lion, in theory they could set it up so that one of their horses goes to the lead for the half mile, then have another take over for half mile, then have the last one take over for an eighth and give Endorsement a perfect set-up to take over for the final furlong.
Now, i know that there are several problems with this idea: That the pace set-up will not only help Endorsement, but every other non-speed horse in the field. That it might be considering "unethical". That using the horse as a rabbit is not good for the horse. Those concerns are valid and i really cannot say that the do not bug me a bit as well.
But this is just an idea that if nothing else, would look rather cool to see as the head down the backstretch the first Saturday in May, the Winstar Train rolling along.
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