Where Will Hollywood Park's Graded Stakes Land? (Where Should They?)

With the imminent closure of Betfair Hollywood Park, the 36 graded stakes are up for grabs to the other tracks on the circuit. Below is listing is of each of graded stakes available, along with where the writer thinks they SHOULD go and where they probably WILL go.



As the chart shows, the reason it is 36 (and not 37) graded stakes is that the Jim Murray Memorial Hcp. has not been run in either of the last two years, which means it will not be graded next year.

Most of the stakes are just going to be carried over from one venue to the other with little change, with some getting the axe due to excessive duplication or monetary issues. The third column is what this blog wish could happen to the schedule instead, taking advantage of certain factors and/or scheduling conflicts. This blog's main suggestions would provide a drastically needed shake-up while throwing a lifeline to a struggling smaller track.

Including Golden Gate Fields
The biggest change suggested is that Golden Gate (whose owners also own Santa Anita) get the Grade 1 Hollywood Gold Cup and the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile. Moving the races there would not (initially) affect its Grade 1 status, as it is still within California and the basic timing and conditions of the race would remain unchanged. If this were to occur, two prep series could be set-up between the tracks, to help attract attention. The San Francisco Mile (GG) on Derby Day, the American (SA) 4 weeks later, and then Shoemaker Mile (GG) back at Golden Gate Fields on Independence Day would make up the first series (all older male grass miles). For the older main track routers, with the Mervyn Leroy Hcp (SA), Californian (SA), and the newly christened Golden Gate Gold Cup (GG) would make up a comparable series. (Golden Gate Fields will still run the G3 All-American on Memorial Day, as a local prep) Both could have some sort of bonus attached to get connections to run all three. The Golden Gate Gold Cup in particular could be marketed as a sort of test run for any horses who might want to consider a run in Dubai, with it being a similar Tapeta surface as the track at Meydan.

Including Los Alamitos
Los Alamitos is going to run 5 weeks (split among two weeks) next year, and the chance for them to pick up a few stakes that will get squeezed out of the schedule is there. This blog ended up thinking as many as five of them could end up at the track, with four of them being run in the Autumn meet (dark purple). Each of those four graded stakes would fit the configuration of the track AND have a high chance of not being picked up by Del Mar because of Del Mar's short meet. The G3 Laz Barrera was not run this spring/summer meet at Hollywood Park, and at 7 furlongs might have to change distance to be run at Los Alamitos, but it is an intriguing option to any 3yo sprinters who may not handle the Polytrack/facing older at Del Mar. The Hollywood Prevue could be available if Del Mar decides to not run a prep for the Hollywood Futurity, and Los Al could easily pick that up as well.

Hollywood Derby
Del Mar cannot run a ten-furlong grass race because of the configuration of its turf course. So that mean the Hollywood Derby would have to be shortened/lengthened to fit the course. Instead, this blog suggests that it be moved to Belmont Stakes weekend (or the weekend after) of the spring/summer meet. In this case, it would fill a natural void of races for 3yo turf horses early in the year, while also retaining its original distance. The other option is to move it to Santa Anita's autumn meet on closing weekend, forcing the Twilight Derby to opening weekend.

CUT?
Honestly, this blog didn't cut any of the races from his column because he decided to see how the changes made would affect the schedule. The guesses on which will be cut are based on assumptions from track gossip, logical guesses based on the schedule (including the recently released 2013-2014 Santa Anita Winter meet stakes schedule) and which stakes seemed to be the most redundant compared to the track they are headed. The one stake this blog feels most confident on being cut is the Sunset, as with the Whittingham being a G2 and the omission of the typical closing day feature, the San Juan Capistrano Hcp., from the winter/spring schedule (assuming that it will be placed at the end of the spring/summer meet instead), the numbers don't add up for the Sunset's inclusion on the stakes calendar.

So there is this blog's "ten cents" on what the graded stakes schedule should look like for Southern California after Hollywood Park closes. What's your take? Let it be known in the comments. Good luck everybody.

No Change, Maybe?

(A parody of Carly Rae Jepsen's "Call Me, Maybe?")

I took a stab in the dark
It was just more than a lark
He just showed that certain spark
Bet more than a week's pay.
I'll go to church for a year
Pennies and dimes for my beer
I need this, it's rather clear
Please let this be my day.

That stare was holdin', shagged out, mane was flowin', dappled coat
was glowin', who you think I'm betting baby?

(chorus)
Hey, I just bet you, and this is crazy
but he just won now, huge longshot baby.
He went left and right, acted greenly,
his number's blinking, but no change, maybe?
Hey I just bet him, and this is crazy,
he's ninety-to-one, huge longshot baby.
He beat the other boys, said "Can't catch me!",
his number's blinking, but no change, maybe?

They took their time with the call
Maybe they went to the mall
I don't see nothing at all
But still an inquiry.
Won't need to beg, borrow, steal
If I can cash this for real
Can't see what's the big deal
But still an inquiry.

That stare was holdin', shagged out, mane was flowin', dappled coat
was glowin', why you think I'm bet him baby?

(chorus)
Hey, I just bet you, and this is crazy
but he just won now, huge longshot baby.
He went left and right, act all greenly,
his number's blinking, but no change, maybe?
Hey I just bet him, and this is crazy,
he's ninety-to-one, huge longshot baby.
He beat the other boys, said "Can't catch me!",
his number's blinking, but no change, maybe?

This could completely change my life, I need this so bad,
I need this so bad, I need this so so bad.
This could completely change my life, I need this so bad,
I'm broke, you know that, I need this so so bad...

He shied from the whip, acted greenly
is number's blinking, but no change, maybe?
Hey I just bet him, and this is crazy,
he's ninety-to-one, huge longshot baby.
He beat the other boys, said "Can't catch me!",
his number's blinking, but no change, maybe?

This could completely change my life, I need this so bad,
I need this so bad, I need this so so bad.
This could completely change my life, I need this so bad
Here's the decision
There's no change, baby!

Fake Racing Movies Gone Wild

On Tuesday, a racing-based hashtag swept over Twitter with a rush. Following in the footsteps of other hashtags such as #PopSongJockeys and #PopSongHorses before it, #FakeRacingMovies flooded the Twittersphere with funny, pun-charged titles of movies. Everything from the venerable classics of multiple Academy Award winners to absolute bombs of movies that went in and out of theaters in a flash. As of this blog posting, it was just now starting to fade. Here are some of my personal favorites, with fake movie plot synopsis for each:

Fly So Free Willy - The heart-warming story of boy who helps to save a horse from being gelded in order to save his family.
Denman on Wire - This thrilling documentary about the steeplechase star Denman search for the wire against his rival Kauto Star.
The Mucho Macho Man Who Knew Too Little - In this remake, Mucho Macho Man mistakes a spy's ring tone for the call to the post and falls into an international espionage thriller.
Win Willy Wonka and The Chocolate Factory - In this twist to the classic Roald Dahl novel, 5 people get a chance to win the man behind the famous brand itself as their own personal servant along with his factory of wonderment.
Sex and the City Zip - The four ladies talk about a recent dry spell in the love department.

A Street Cry Named Desire - "Who's Stella?" is the tagline for this imaginative interpretation of this classic story.
Million Dollar Yearling - The story behind how a little filly with a no-name pedigree becomes the sales-topper at the Keeneland September sale.
Under The Tuscan Evening - A divorcee mare hopes a move to Italy will restart her love life. A powerful performance by Diane Lane throughout.
Pletch - Intrepid trainer Todd Pletcher is offered a yearling with an allegedly ho-hum pedigree to train. But after digging into the horse's past, he discovers things may not be what it seems...
Sunday Silence of the Lambs - A young FBI employee is sent to a prison for the criminally insane to befriend a former horse trainer with a medication-positive filled past in a desperate attempt to help stop a vet who is pushing a "killer" performance drug cocktail.

Raiders of the Lost Arch - An venerated racing historian is called upon to stop evil and discover the mysterious Arch of the Covenant, a horseshoe that could change the fate of history.
Yours, Mine and Half Ours - The story of two jockeys who have figure out how to divide their children and possessions during a bitter divorce.
Comma To The Top Gun - A hot shot bush-league jockey is promoted to the McCarron Jockey School, where he tries to overcome his brash attitude, his father's fatal past errors and his inability to use an apostrophe correctly.
Not For Love Actually - Loosely interconnected vignettes about how relationships fall apart, with the racetrack as a backdrop.

Saving the best title for last (via @shesunskippable: )

Weekend at Bernardini's- Two up-and-coming stable-hands discover that their star stallion is dead right before open house weekend at the farm! With the farm in dire financial straits, these two have to pretend their stallion is still the life of the party, with comedic results!

Go ahead and post some of your favorite titles (with plot previews if you want) in the comments section.

Sunshine Millions - California Races

This Saturday at the Great Race Place the Sunshine Millions will once again fill the stage with state-bred action. There have been some major changes in the program about what is run and the rules behind it. This year's edition brings together three stakes under the banner to help. There will be the ubiquitous food truck festival, along with a performance by Shiny Toy Guns. A good card all-around on this last Saturday in January. (Also on the card are two graded stakes, the Grade 1 Santa Monica and the Grade 3 Santa Ysabel Stakes, but those will be talked in a separate post.)

Before we talk about the races, let's go over the changes to the Sunshine Millions, as this year's program substantially different to what it has been in the pass. To put it bluntly, the only thing continuing on from last year is the Sunshine Millions name, at least when it comes to the Santa Anita races. No longer is it Florida-breds vs. Cal-breds like in the past. Now Santa Anita & Gulfstream Park will both hold state-bred races for the state they are located in instead of the two state-bred groups mixing. All six of the stakes that were part of the Sunshine Millions schedule are now schedule to run at Gulfstream Park. In its place at Santa Anita will be run three Cal-bred stakes taken from other parts of the stakes schedule to fill the gap. The three stakes snatched from elsewhere are the Sensational Star, the Crystal Water and the Valentine's Dancer. These stakes were all introduced in the 1990's for Cal-breds, and for this year will be run under the Sunshine Millions banner. Let's takes these races in order, starting with the Sensational Star.

The Sensational Star is a race down the hillside turf course at the about distance of 6 1/2 furlongs. First, let's scratch Luckarack (who will run in the first on the card instead against blog favorite CAPITAL ACCOUNT) and Mega Heat (who is entered in a race on Sunday instead). As this blog was about to be posted, news broke on Twitter that Caracortado is out of the race due to a minor foot issue. This dramatically changes the betting complexion of the race, as he figured to be the heavy favorite. The field is now a group of 5 lead by former graded stakes winner Compari.  This son of Redattore won the 2010 edition of this race gate-to-wire. His early speed is his biggest weapon, and he has used it very effectively. However, he has not shown the ability to pass and win, which is a big problem. Ain't No Other has only one way to go and that is to the lead. He appears to be faster earlier on than Compari, but if ANO's jock attempts to rate him back a bit, it could be to the detriment to both his mount and Compari, as it could lead to a speed duel. The pick is Red Defense (right). This other son of Redattore has won down the hill in the past, has shown the ability to rate and win, and figures to get a perfect stalking trip behind the leaders. The other two in the field are My Summer Slew, who previously won down this hill and comes in 2nd off a layoff; and Tamarack Smarty, who is slightly better at a mile than at this distance.

The Crystal Water returns off a one year hiatus with a surface and distance change. It is now a mile and one-sixteenth on the main track. (It was previously at a mile on the grass) This group of six is evenly matched and each have their own question marks. Legal Separation appears to be the fastest horse early, but can he last in his first attempt routing? Bluegrass Reward comes in off a solid win, and can pass, but can he turn the tide on those in this field who have beat him in the past? Spud Spivens ran a bad race in the Grade 2 San Fernando, but can he rebound off that effort over a surface (dirt) that he has never won over? Thirtyfirststreet just won at this distance at this track and previously won a similar cal-bred stake, but if he figures to be favored, why does the "musical chairs" jockey continue? Holladay Road won his only time on dirt, but can he prevail in his first time against stakes company? Macho Dorado just won here, but can he handle the step up from claiming company? With all these questions out there, this race is a tough one to pick. If you twisted my arm for a pick, I would take the favorite.

The last of the three state-bred stakes is the Valentine Dancer going one mile on the grass. This race was thrown into the air by the scratching of probable favorite Unzip Me, along with Cayanna. It is also being reported that La Sombre will also be scratched. That leaves a field of seven evenly matched females. The role of the favorite now will likely fall to Halo Dolly. This daughter of Popular has won more than 50% of her races lifetime. She won a race similar to this during the summer at Del Mar in the Solana Beach Handicap. She can sit mid-pack and make one run. She did lose to Antares World two back, but that may have been at a distance that is just too far for her. Antares World broke an 8 race losing streak in that win. She seems to prefer a target to run down, and she will get that today. The only horse in this race to defeat open company in a graded stake is California Nectar. She is a speed ball who has only one way to go, and that is fast early. This will be her first route on the grass since a distant 4th in the Miesque S. when she was two. There is not a lot of early speed, but there are serious questions about whether she wants to go this far. Secret Cove is by the underrated turf California sire Tribal Rule. Four of her five wins are on the turf course, and with the cut back to a flat mile, she has a big chance at a bit of a price. She is a must use on the any ticket, including the $250k guaranteed Luck P6 being offered involving these Sunshine Millions race.

For a look at the Florida Sunshine Millions races, please take a look at this post from my good friend Paul over at Picks and Ponderings on Chiago Horse Racing.

So there are some thoughts about the three SoCal races under the Sunshine Millions banner. It figures to be a festive day of racing. Whomever the readers out there land on, this blog wishes you good "Luck".

A Tiger Defending His Crown

As the second week of "where the turf meets the surf" rolls on, the Grade 1 Bing Crosby Stakes is the big race of the weekend. This Sunday at Del Mar brings together of a field of seven sprinters, including the defending champ Smiling Tiger. He looks to hold off several challengers to his throne, including the horse who defeated him back in January, Euroears. This race could end up having major end-of-the-year award ramifications. With the lack of star power in the handicap and three year old male divisions, Smiling Tiger could be the first horse who is exclusively a sprinter in a long time (maybe ever) to have a chance at Older Male and Horse of The Year honors if he runs the table. Let's break down this group, starting with the favorite and defending champ.

Smiling Tiger (right) Comes off a huge win in the Grade 1 Triple Bend Handicap at Hollywood Park last month. He bounced back from a trouble-filled 6th in the Churchill Downs Handicap, which is his only off the board finish in his career. He returns to the site of his first graded stakes win of his career last year, which occurred in this race. His win last year was the earliest win by a three year old versus older horses in graded stakes competition. He was the only three year old to beat older horses multiple times in graded stakes competition. He has the rail draw, which he is winless from in his career. This race is being run under stakes conditions, which means that he is giving at most four lbs. to his competitors. The lack of weight difference plus his consistency and gameness all lead to him defending his title.

The horse who defeated him earlier this year at Santa Anita is Euroears. This son of Langfuhr has not raced since finishing 2nd in the Dubai Golden Shaheen in March, finishing a solid second to top international sprinter Rocket Man. Euroears has worked in typical swift Baffert fashion coming off the layoff, with several bullets in tow. His jockey for the last few mounts Mike Smith chooses to stay with Amazombie, so top local jock Rafael Bejarano will take over the mount. His pedigree is not great for the Del Mar Poly, with his sire's runners having only win out of nineteen tries. With his need-the-lead style he may have some trouble getting separation from the other speed, especially Smiling Tiger.

Amazombie finished 3rd in Triple Bend behind Smiling Tiger with no apparent excuse. He's had some nice easy works since that race, with his last two coming over the track. It is possible that he could just being wearing down a little, with this being his 7th start this year and him running every four weeks like clockwork since last October. Mike Smith chooses him over Euroears. His pedigree is solid for his initial try over the Del Mar Poly, with both sire and damsire having good numbers.

The others in the field are Grade 1 winner Kinsale King, who was last seen being a late scratch in Dubai; Grade 2 winner Coffee Boy, who makes his first stakes start for his new trainer Mike Mitchell; and allowance runners Carbonite who makes his first career stakes start and Color of Courage, who followed two strong allowance wins with a poor 5th in the Triple Bend.

So there are some thoughts on the Bing Crosby. Can Smiling Tiger defend his crown, avenging his defeat to Euroears? Can Amazombie get that Grade 1 win, continuing his fairytale run for his connections? Will Kinsale King regain his past form and rise to glory? We shall see. Good luck everybody!

Fostering Thoughts of a Flat Out Upset

The older horses take the stage this weekend in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster Handicap at Churchill Downs going a mile and one-eighth. With no real leader in the older male handicap division, this is a chance for someone to seize command with a win. Eleven horses will step into the gate with the chance to get a Grade 1 win. These runners are evenly matched, with no dominate favorite among them. That is shown by the fact that the morning line favorite is at 7-2. The thoughts on this race will begin with the tepid morning line favorite Giant Oak.

#10 Giant Oak has been in the winner's circle once at Churchill Downs, but it was via the DQ in the Clark Handicap. Before that, he had a run of fourth-place finishes there, including a fourth in this race lat year. In his last start, he finished 5th in the Alysheba here 6 weeks ago, behind fellow entrants Equestrio and Regal Ransom, but ahead of Mission Impazible. He figures to make his late run from well off the pace, which could be a problem, since there is not a ton of pace. His outside post position is not an issue, and he has been training fantastically in the interim.

#6 Regal Ransom and #11 Mission Impazible figure to be the pacesetters in this race. Regal Ransom was nailed at the wire in the Alysheba by probable Hollywood Gold Cup favorite First Dude. As his passing gear is non-existent, his jockey Alan Garcia will attempt to get him to the front, then slow it down. On his flank figures to be Mission Impazible who does his best work when sitting just off the leader. He beat Giant Oak and Apart two back in the New Orleans Handicap. Other than his outside post, he figures to have a good chance. The dull effort last time out is some cause for concern though.

#2 Crown of Thorns (right) invades from the West Coast for trainer Richard Mandella with jockey Tyler Baze in tow. He won the Mervyn Leroy Handicap at Hollywood Park last out, wearing down Sidney's Candy in the final 1/16th of a mile. Mandella said that the six weeks between races was perfect timing for his charge, and he has been working steadily after his win. While he has only run on dirt once, it was off a layoff and probably a distance short then his best (at least on dirt). The way he trains over dirt and his pedigree suggests that he will be fine over it. He should have no problem with the mile and an eighth today, and figures to be sitting right behind Regal Ransom and Mission Impazible early on.

#3 Apart looks to follow the path of his stablemate last year and win the Foster after a win in the Schaefer on the Preakness undercard. Blame pulled the double for his connections, then went on to win the Breeders' Cup Classic last November. Apart won in workmanlike fashion in the Schaefer in a close finish. He was beaten multiple times over the winter by Mission Impazible and has split decisions with Giant Oak. He seems to have bounced back fine, with a couple of solid works at his Keeneland home base. This son of Flatter has all the tools to win, but the fact that he another change in rider is a bit disconcerting. His last rider, top jockey Garrett Gomez, decided to ride Blind Luck in the Vanity Handicap. While Julien Leparoux is no slouch, the fact that Gomez left

Yet none of those is the pick for the race. The pick is the co-longest shot at 30/1 on the morning line #1 Flat Out. This son of Flatter has been a blog favorite even before the existence of this blog. This blog thought that he had retired after getting hurt after the 2009 Arkansas Derby, but was pleasantly surprised when he returned to the races in December 2010. That winning effort was stymied by another layoff until Memorial Day this year, in which he ran second to the consistent old-timer Awesome Gem in the Lone Star Park Handicap, beating multiple graded stakes winners Game On Dude and Thiskyhasnolimit in the process. He popped a swift work in the interim, has a hot jockey in Corey Lanerie and figures to make his move from mid-pack. He is in light at 114 lbs., 4-9 lbs. less than any of the major contenders. While he is taking a major class hike today, and the pace set-up is not that great, at the price he figures to be, this blog is willing to take a shot.

Someone looks to take some measure of control in the handicap division with a victory in this race. A son of Flatter looks to make a mark, but not the one most think. Can Flat Out flat out cause an major upset and announce his arrival? We shall see. Good luck everybody!

Preakness Card Stakes Thoughts

The middle jewel of the Triple Crown is upon us. Animal Kingdom carries the hopes of a nation that he can end the drought that has stricken us since Affirmed in 1978 of a Triple crown winner. The undercard has some solid races with some past Grade 1 winners, some hopeful up-and-comers and good betting opportunities. Ranging from a pair of 6 furlong sprints all the way to the mile and three-sixteenths of the Preakness, this figures to be a good day of racing. Let's start with the race for the fillies and mares going a mile and one-sixteenth.

The Alliare Dupont Distaff marks the return to graded stakes company for multiple grade one winner Life At Ten. After a so-so second in her 2011 debut going one turn at Gulfstream. Returning to two-turns, she towers over this field on class. The only concern is that she may have lost something after that debacle in the Breeders' Cup and maybe Father Time has caught up with her a bit. Her main danger is Payton D'Oro. Her biggest win was 2009 Black-Eyed Susan right her at this track. She ran a so-so third in her only start this year, and that was her first start in the year. She's worked well for trainer Larry Jones, but she also may have lost a step. Decelerator figures to be winging on the front end.

Two races later brings together 3yo sprinters in the Chick Lang Stakes going 6 furlongs. This is the second leg of the guaranteed $250k Early Pick 4. (This blog thinks that #8 Easy Ashley is a single in the first leg of the Pick 4). This is a tough race as contention runs deep. Ghost Is Clear just quit last time, for some reason, but has come back to work well, and has several sprint races which would be competitive. Chipshot comes in third off the layoff with a bullet work in tow. Escort just quit on the Poly last time, has worked well since, and has power couple Pletcher/Velazquez behind him. Venegeful Wildcat has two narrow losses this year against similar. Road Ready will be coming out of the clouds, but can he get up in time?

Next up is the James W Murphy for three year olds on the lawn going a mile. This looks like a three horse race between: Lil Bit O'Fun, who gets some class relief after meeting the best turf 3yos in the country last out; Humble and Hungry gets back on turf in his second start of the year and acquires the services of Garrett Gomez; and Joes Blazing Aaron, who won the Grade 3 Palm Beach two back in gate-to-wire fashion. These three tower over the rest of the field.

The last race of the early Pick 4 is Grade 3 Maryland Sprint. The heavy favorite figures to be the SoCal based Ventana. He has banged heads with some of the best sprinters on the west coast, but always seems to come out on the short end. This blog believes that he is slightly better at a distance a half-furlong longer than today's distance, which makes him very vulnerable. Nathan's H Q is a true speedball, but he is inside speed, and he looks that he will have the lead turning for home. If he can shake free, he is a danger to lead gate-to-wire. China comes back in 17 days after a solid second behind a gunner in the oft-injured but very talented Irrefutable. He threw a swift workout in the interim and could be sitting on a huge effort. He'll be sitting just off the pace.

The start of the guaranteed $1 million dollar late Pick 4 starts with the Grade 3 Galorette Handicap. The highweight and favorite is Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf winner Shared Account. This is her first race since her huge upset win in the BC, and she has been training steadily for her trainer Graham Motion. She ran 4th in this race last year off a similar layoff. This looks like a good time to take a stand against her at short odds, and the horse to take advantage is No Explaining. She won last out in solid turf race at Keeneland in good time. She ships down for her trainer Roger Attfield from her Woodbine home base, which is saying something since Woodbine offers a race at a similar distance two weeks from now for three times the purse. She retains top jock John Velazquez in the irons, who will keep her mid-pack, looking to get a jump on the favorite. She will enjoy any give in the ground as well. The 10 pound difference in weight in favor of No Explaining can't hurt either.

The William Donald Schaefer and the Dixie have a horse cross-entered in Eighttofasttocatch. If he runs in the Schaefer, as is the most likely scenario, he rates a solid chance, but he must defeat a much deeper, but not necessarily stronger, field. Colizeo (looking to bounce back after an no excuse third in the Grade 3 Skip Away), Pleasant Prince (first race since getting crushed in the BC Classic and his second race against older), Icabad Crane (has a win over the track and ran third in the Preakness three years ago) and Apart (Trying to follow in former barnmate Blame's footsteps, though he has nowhere near the killer instinct of the champion older male).

If “Eight” does go in the Dixie, his main obstacle is Paddy O'Prado. This multiple graded stakes winner was the king of the three year-olds on turf, winning 4 stakes an finishing 2nd against older in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic before getting beaten by 5 ½ in the BC Classic. He makes his 2011 debut in the Dixie, and brings a solid series of works into the race. This maybe the best time to beat him, as this race is clearly a means to an end for bigger and better things later on in the year. He is carrying the same amount of weight as the others, which gives him a clear advantage over the field. Hopefully “Eight” stays in this race, as he looks to be one with a chance to upset the heavy favorite at a big price.

This leaves the big one, the Preakness. Now this blog admits that the Kentucky Derby was an unmitigated disaster, but the struggle to find a pick, let alone a key in the exotics, portended doom from the beginning. After regrouping, seeing what went wrong and admitting that the selections have been very hit or miss with this lot this year, a renewed enthusiasm for the race came on. Now, the pick for today is not to win, but to place. That is because this horse s probably not good enough to win, but under the right circumstances he can light up the tote at a big number. That horse is Norman Asbjornson. He ran 4th in the Wood after running 2nd in the Gotham. His sire won this race back in 1998, and he has solid local connections. He's had two stamina building workouts in the interim and has made a solid appearance in the mornings. He's slowly improved with every race, with this being his third off the layoff. If his jockey can time the move just right, maybe he grind his way to second.

So the Preakness is upon us. Can Animal Kingdom keep his Triple Crown hopes alive? Will Someone end them instead? Can Shared Account and Paddy O'Prado return off the layoff to their previous form? We shall see. Good luck everybody!

Strub Stakes Day

This Saturday bring us 3 graded stakes to Santa Anita, all local preps for major races one month from now on Big Cap day. First up will be the Grade 1 Las Virgenes at a mile, which is a prep for the Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks. Next up is the Grade 3 Thunder Road at a mile on the grass, which is the prep for the Grade 1 Frank E. Kilroe Mile. Finally, the Strub series will finish up with the Grade 2 Strub Stakes, the last chance for 4 year olds to stay within their own age group before taking on older in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap. Let's kick off the stakes action with the only Grade 1 on today's card, the Las Virgenes.

The 4th race on the card, the Las Virgenes brings together a field of 6 (7 entered, but Bluegrass Chatter was a program scratch). This race marks the 2011 debut of Turbulent Descent, who capped off her 2010 with a win the Grade 1 Hollywood Starlet. She has been training smartly across town at her Hollywood Park home base, finishing off her preparations with a bullet 5 furlong work on 1/30. Going against her today is the winner of the Grade 3 Santa Ysabel May Day Rose and the 1-2-3 finishers of the Grade 2 Santa Ynez California Nectar, Zazu and Plum Pretty. May Day Rose cuts back a 1/16th of a mile off her win, and will be winging on the front end. California Nectar is running her third race and stakes win of the meet, and will be looking for her first win at a route of ground. Zazu has finished second to both CA Nectar and Zazu, and will look to avenge both. If Turbulent Descent can take to dirt, the rest look to be running for second.

4 races later, older males face-off in the Thunder Road Handicap. The field includes grade 1 winners Fluke and Victor's Cry. The surprising entrant is Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile winner Dakota Phone. He was expected to run in the San Antonio Handicap tomorrow, but the way the dirt is playing has apparently forced the hand of the connections to use this as a prep race for the Big Cap. The Cal-bred Colgan's Chip will once again try open company, hoping to take this field wire-to-wire while cutting back to a flat mile. This blog does not have a good feeling for this race, so all he will say is that Dakota Phone is a play against at short odds. While he is 1-for-5 on the grass, the shape of the race and the shorter turf stretch will play against him.

The final race of the day is the Strub Stakes. Former recent winners of the race are multiple Grade 1 winners Rock Hard Ten and Medaglia d'Oro. The heavy favorite, and rightfully so in this blog opinion, is Twirling Candy (right). Off his track-record effort in the Grade 1 Malibu, he stretches out once again and comes in with some sparkling works. He appears to be clearly the class of the field and could be a monster in the making. The only worry is that his two starts going a mile and an eighth have been "adventurous". This blog is intrigued by a new shooter invading from the east, Honour the Deputy. This recent private purchase is now in the Hollendorfer barn and apparently adjusted well to SoCal based on his works. With the rather uninspiring lot lined up here besides TC, he is this blog's choice to surprise and get up for second. This blog is taking a stand against any horse that comes out of the Grade 2 San Fernando Stakes.

Today will be a solid day of racing out at the Great Race Place, and hopefully will see some star worthy performances. Good luck everybody!

A New Chapter for Santa Anita

On Christmas Day back in 1934, Santa Anita opened its doors for racing for the first time. Its Art Deco facade remains nearly the same it did then as it does now. Opening day is one of the marquee days of the meet, and is filled with stakes action. The always-beloved calendar will once again been given away, with this year's theme showcasing some of the many occurrences where Santa Anita served as the backdrop for featured films and television shows. With another season upon us, many ideas, hopes and dreams swirl in the air over the new surface, the end to "The Drought" and many, many more. This blog will take share some thoughts on these two, along with a few other thoughts about the meet.

The dirt - The re-installation of a new dirt surface has people buzzing. The track already handled its first major test in style with its tolerating of ten-plus inches of rain in the span of less than six days time. It has produced fast workout times and for now has handled the horse traffic with ease. Hopefully this trend continues and the fears of this blog that switch would lead to a swath of injuries will proved to be unfounded. The return to dirt has brought some new blood into the water as well. Trainer Steve Asmussen has sent a string out here to train over the track, including some of his well-thought of two year olds such as Brock, the $2.3 million yearling purchase out of the sire Distorted Humor. The switch to dirt could also help future Derby prospects in their ultimate goal. That leads me to...

"The Drought" - The drought I speak of is the 21 year gap of the Santa Anita Derby winner going on to win the Kentucky Derby. Not since Sunday Silence in 1989 has the winner gone on to claim the roses the first Saturday in May. While some have come close (Cavonnier, Pioneerof The Nile) and some who have not won have gone on to win in Kentucky ( Real Quiet, Giacomo), not one horse has pulled the double since 1989. Maybe the switch back to dirt, along with the Preakness 5.5 program, will finally give that last little oomph need to get a horse to pull the double. Maybe one of Bob Baffert's many charges will be the one to do it, including the newest horse to join the barn, Grade 1 winning Jaycito. Or it could be this blog's current choice to break the streak, Premier Pegasus. This son of 2000 Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus, out of a mare who has also produced Grade 1 winner Street Hero, is three-for-three lifetime. He won the Grade 3 Hollywood Prevue last time out, and he is being pointed to first prep on the dirt for the Derby at Santa Anita, the Grade 3 Sham.

Odds and Ends
The elimination of Wednesday cards for the first two months of the meet should help field size remain high, and avoiding the waiting game that plagued the cards towards the end of the last meet, when it took almost until Tuesday to get a Thursday card filled.

Blog favorite Tanda has still not worked after suffering a foot bruise, which caused her to miss the Grade 1 La Brea Stakes on opening day (though part of that is due to the inclement weather out here). Hopefully she will make it back to the track in time to get a prep in for what this blog hopes is a winning run in the Grade 1 Santa Monica Handicap on January 30.

While the weather may not keep them off the turf course for route races, the intense rain has knocked the downhill turf course out of action. The upper part of the course just has not had enough time to dry out so it can be used while not getting chewed up, especially since it is the beginning of the meet. Races on both the 26th and 27th were scrubbed due to this and with the rain on Saturday and the threat of rain on the Wednesday the 29th, it could realistically until 2011 until a race down the hill is run.

The new meet is a time for renewed hope. Hope that the surface is safe as possible and will hold up to the weather. Hope that "The Drought" finally ends and the Santa Anita Derby becomes a viable prep again. Hope that this sport can finally turn around out of its freefall. Hope that maybe, just maybe, a star can blossom right before our eyes that will surpass the beauty of that gorgeous backdrop of the San Gabriel Mountains. Good luck everybody.

(P.S. Thoughts about the 4 stakes on the opening day card will be offered in the comments)

No Need to Cry Over The Matriarch

Today begins the Hollywood Park Turf Festival, stretching three days and featuring 5 graded stakes, including the last two Grade 1 turf races this year. (For my thoughts on the rest of the turf festival, check them out in the Thorofan's Handicapper Corner) Today is the Grade 1 Matriarch for filles and mares going a flat mile on the grass. This race has fabulous fillies in its list of past winners such as Royal Heroine, Flawlessly and most recently Ventura. There is a compact field of 7, and appears to boil down to a two-horse race.

The favorite and the foreign invader:
#6 Special Duty looks to continue the dominance of Juddmonte in this race. They have been the owners of six out of the last thirteen winners, and look to have another strong entrant in this Hennessy filly. She ships in from Europe, and retains the services of top local jockey Rafael Bejarano. She brings in top form, as she finished only four and 1/4 lengths behind the world-class mare Goldikova last time out. She has not crossed the wire first this year, however, as both of her wins came via the stewards, as the winners were both disqualified from the top spot. She will be rolling late with her late kick from the back of the pack, but can she get to the pick?

The pick and the Texas invader:
#7 Wasted Tears is a hard-knocking speedball who goes to the lead and tells you to come and catch them. I have a fondness for this type of horse, especially when it is a mare on the grass. Last time out, she was uncharacteristically rated off the lead early on in the Grade 1 First Lady. She then went too swift to gain the lead going into the turn and stopped late, being defeated . Taken back to her home base, she has thrown several good works since and will problem revert to her front-running ways. Rajiv Maragh maintains the mount, and looks to atone for his mistake last time out. The field may catch her, but can they pass this game mare? This blog say "No."

This blog will have plenty of pictures for his wrap-up of the race (and the rest of the weekend races), as he is headed out to the track to finally see "Ten Top T-bred" Wasted Tears in person. Good luck this weekend everybody!

P.S. Time constraints prevented me from writing about the Grade 1 Clark Handicap, but I would be remiss if I didn't mention the pick #2 Apart aka Blame 2.0 aka Blame's successor. This son of Flatter has the same owner, trainer and breeder connections as Blame, and looks to carry the colors proudly in the Clark.

I was SO right. Yet why do i feel SO wrong?

Let's get the bragging out of the way. I was right about the Breeders' Cup Classic. WAY right. Blame won, like I have been preaching from the mountaintops the entire year. He beat Zenyatta in a thrilling photo, just as I predicted on the previous blog post. Lookin at Lucky finished off the board (just barely), as I have repeatedly said on Twitter. I should be on the top of the world, celebrating my predictions.

Yet I am not.

I know I watched from Hollywood Park what may end being the most emotional, gut-wrenching, heart-stopping race of my life. The only two horses who have ever impelled and inspired me to go out of my comfort zone of "the greater Los Angeles area" to see them run (whether it be in San Diego or New York). The two horses who a large piece of my heart, who I would become nothing more than a shell of a man if something happened to them. Those two horses ended facing one another, and I chose sides, somehow being able to keep my emotions in check for one brief moment of clarity. Yet I hoped if I had to be wrong, I was wrong just a little. But I was right. I should be throwing money around like it was going out of style.

Yet I am not.

Why? That is for another blog. But the part that I will mention is that rumors of Blame's demise via a quarter crack was the final straw that broke my already tenuous hold on sane reasoning, caused from the combination of life, Breeders' Cup and school all asking for my time. All of that lead me not to bet, but to just watch as a spectator. That I did, wearing my Blame shirt, my Blue TVG hat and my gray shorts, in fall contrast to the sea of pink and green signifying Zenyatta's fans. I knew I was one of the few who was going against the queen. After Blame successfully usurp the BC Classic throne away from the queen, I gave a couple of fist pumps, and a couple of gloating tweets about my prognostication. But that was all I could muster before an onrush of mixed emotion enveloped me. I should be happy that I was able to at least put into words my happiness over being right, in that moment.

Yet I am not.

I had to wait several days to write this post, to even try to understand and control my thoughts into something workable for the printed page. My mind was a swirl of happiness and sadness and excitement and depression, confusing me in a such a way that it took this long to fall back into at least some sense of normalcy. This post is more or less an odd of way saying thank you to both Blame and Zenyatta, as they mean so much to me that they made me do, see, feel things that I probably would not have done. I should be happy in how much they have, indirectly as it may seems, helped me turn into a better person.

Yet I am not.

Zenyatta was the first horse in a long time that I fell hard for on more than a paper level. From witnessing her maiden win live, to leaving an ER to see her El Encino win, to helping me understand the game is more than the gambling aspect (via her 2009 BC Classic win). That win made me realize that this game was more than about the big score, the life-changing payoff, the fact that ever time you were cashing a ticket it means you defeat all of those other people, it was about the horses. Her win was a "game-changer", so to speak. So to cheer more for someone else than her hurt me more than a little. But the one who I cheered for was more than a passing fancy. So I should be happy that she ran a huge race, yet did not win.

Yet I am not.

Blame was the horse who piqued my interest in a defeat of all things. His Super Derby second caught my eye, when I all I was watching the race for was to see how the track was playing after William's Kitten snapped my attention to the TV with his win earlier on the card. I love horses who don't give in, even if they are beat. His win in the Fayette validated my initial thought on him, and the Clark victory sealed in the love. The Blame Facebook page followed in the spring, when the time drew near for his first race of the season. I tried not once, not twice, but three times to see him in person, but each time the plans fell through. Finally this blog decided that enough is enough, and made the fateful trip to Belmont. Seeing Blame in person was worth the wait, even if this blog did not get a picture of him. But the trip ended being up so much more than just the horse, it was about the people, the experiences, the change. He made me move myself to a better place personally, socially, spiritually. They both did. So I should be happy that they both ran a huge race, and ran one-two, well clear of the others.

Yet I am not.

My heart, my mind, my entire being is filled with happiness over being right in the Classic, that the fact that ran their best and that they both came back safe from the race. My heart, my mind, my entire being is also filled with sadness over their retirement, their being no chance of a rematch and that they both will never be on a track again. The joy and pain of having the two horses that occupy a place in a person's heart going against each other in combat, with only one of them being able to declare victory on the day, is a feeling that many will never experience. But I would rather suffered through all of the agony and the ecstasy of the ride than never have experienced any of it. The change in my life brought upon these two is unquantifiable. Many would be ashamed by this post, and how i have claimed ownership over two things that I have nothing more than an emotional attachment to them.

Yet I am not.

Breeders' Cup Saturday

The day is here. Day 2 of the Breeders' Cup brings the big show to town, with Zenyatta attempting to end her career a perfect 20-for-20. Goldikova attempts to become the first horse ever to win the same race three times, attempting the three-peat in the Mile. With a flurry of competitive fields, this day will have plenty of chances for a great payoff. Let's dive right in with the first Breeders' Cup race, the Juvenile Turf.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf - Grade 2 - 1 Mile - (turf)
The first BC race of the day brings together a evenly match field of thirteen. This blog does not have a great feel for this race at all. The very lukewarm selection is #9 Soldat. Last time out, he finished second as the favorite in the Grade 3 Pilgrim Stakes over a yielding Belmont turf course. Two good works in the interim and the feeling that he will improve with the return to a complete two turns. Some large prices on the morning line that catch the eye are #11 Rough Sailing and #12 Humble and Hungry. Rough Sailing returns to the turf after a failed attempt routing on the Poly in the Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland. The cut-back and the return ti turf interests this blog, along with the two steady works. With a pedigree that is very strong for the grass, he may sneak into the exotics. Humble and Hungry is interesting because his pedigree says two turns are not a problem and the presence of jockey Olivier Peslier, the rider of Goldikova, is a bit of surprise, since H&H is making his first start against winners. The best of the Euros appears to be #5 Master of Hounds. He has experience around a turn, and should be fine at the distance.

Selections:
Soldat
Master of Hounds
Rough Sailing / Humble and Hungry (trifecta bombs)

Breeders' Cup Sprint - Grade 1 - 6 Furlongs
This field of 12 comes in without a clear favorite, as the early and dominant leader Majesticperfection was lost to injury in September. This group has a wide variety of running styles.for everyone to have their favorite style represented. The 3-1 morning line favorite is #2 Girolamo. This son of A.P. Indy, who won the Grade 1 Vosburgh last out, is trying to give his sire a win at the shortest dirt race (6 furlongs) after winning the longest race, the Marathon (1m & 3/4) yesterday. He comes in third off the layoff and has worked well in the interim, but he will bet tossed from the win spot because he violates the "Three Furlong Rule", a cardinal sin for this blog. The choice is #7 Kinsale King. This son of Yankee Victor runs on the dirt for the first time, but did have a workout over it at the BIG Fresno Fair a few weeks back. Earlier this year, he won the Palos Verdes Handicap at Santa Anita, which he parlayed into a win in the Group 1 Dubai Golden Shaheen. He went abroad to the UK for two prestigious grass races. Off since July, he comes in fresh and may float higher than his 8-1 morning line. #1 Big Drama is an ultra-game horse has not run since finishing second to a contender in the BC Dirt Mile Here Comes Ben. The cutback to 6 furlongs can only do good and the steady work pattern adds to the appeal. #5 Smiling Tiger has earned this blog's respect by being one of the few three year olds in the country to beat older, doing so twice in his last three starts. He also is making his first start on dirt, and popped a bullet work here last week. This blog is taking a stand against #3 Wise Dan, who seems to have picked up some "steam" this week, but is making only his 5th career start.

Selections:
Kinsale King
Big Drama
Smiling Tiger /Riley Tucker

Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint - Grade 2 - 5 furlongs - (turf)
This race was quite literally impossible to figure out for this blog. The horse who we had hoped to pin our hopes on, #1 Chamberlain Bridge, popped an abscess on his foot last week and missed his last work. That does not bode well for him in this race, and he no longer the pick. Instead of offering analysis, this blog will just point out a longshot in #13 Tropic Storm. The reason we point out this horse is that the cutback in distance and the abundance of speed in the field lead this blog to believe that if he can get over into a decent spot down the backstretch, he may be able to hang on for a share. The "if you put a gun to my head" selection is #9 Rose Catherine, because of her undefeated record at the distance.

Live Horses: (not enough conviction to make them selections)
Rose Catherine, Tropic Storm, Silver Timber, Unzip Me, Bridgetown

Breeders' Cup Juvenile - Grade 1 - 1m & 1/16th
This race has the two big names from the east coast who have gathered all the headlines, #2 Boys at Tosconova and #7 Uncle Mo. These two have both put in breathtaking efforts in the most recent starts and deserve to be the first two choices in the betting. Both stretch out to two turns for the first time today, but neither should have a problem with the distance. Uncle Mo is a pure speedball, and seeing how he reacts to pace pressure is the main question with him. 'Boys' must overcome a two month layoff, but has actually passed a horse, a rare thing in this field. These two will hopefully cause the price on #10 Jaycito to climb higher than the 8-1 morning line. This son of Victory Gallop has already won going two turns (in the Norfolk), but must overcome the 1 for 18 record on the board for horses coming out of the Norfolk running in the BC Juvenile when it is held at Churchill Downs. These three are the only ones this blog feels can win.

Selections:
Jaycito
Uncle Mo
Boys at Tosconova

Breeders' Cup Mile - Grade 1 - One Mile - (turf)
The first of the two horses attempting to win their third Breeders' Cup race is the deserving favorite and the wonderful mare #10 Goldikova. She comes in fine fashion, winning the Grade 1 Prix de la Foret against males at Longchamp. She is ultra game and there is no rela chink in her armor, Unless something unforeseen happens, she looks like a very strong candidate to make history. This blog;s crazy longshot is #8 Get Stormy. If for some reason the mare does not fire, Get Stormy looks to get a perfect trip behind speedball #9 Sidney's Candy. Whether he is good enough is completely other story, but at a healthy number, he is worth a shot.

Selections:
Goldikova
Paco Boy (who has been chasing Goldi all summer)
Get Stormy

Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile - Grade 1 - one mile
This race took a hit when probable post time favorite #8 Crown of Thorns went down with an injury on Friday. Favoritism will either fall to #5 Here Comes Ben or #6 Gayego. This blog is going to take a chance with the horse just to their outside, #7 Thiskyhasnolimit. "This" has been running effectively at two turns, but has always stuck this blog as a one-turn miler. The only other time h did this, he won the Grade 3 Iroquois on this very track. He has worked nicely in the interim and will probably go off at or near the 10-1 morning line. The morning line favorite #10 Morning Line is a horrible favorite, with only a single Grade 2 to his name. He appears to be a two-turn horse who cannot pass, and will be up against it.

Selections:
Thiskyhasnolimit
Gayego
Here Comes Ben

Breeders' Cup Turf - Grade 1 - 1m & 1/2 (turf)
The big question surround this relatively compact field of 8 is whether or not 2010 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe winner #6 Workforce will run or not. To this blog, it does not matter, as the selection either way is #7 Behkabad. He has run will over a surface with less give in it than hat the connections of Workforce are looking for and was well-bet in the Arc, losing by only 4 lengths with a spot of trouble. The #1 Champ Pegasus is interesting because he is the only on in the field who no one knows how truly good he is, since this is first trip outside of California. He should be on or near the lead, and this may give him a fighting chance with the lack of early speed signed on.

Selections:
Bekhabad
Workforce
Champ Pegasus

That leaves the Classic. But if you are a follower of this blog, you know exactly who is the selection, and who the one to fear is. (Hint, it's a she). But forhow I explain it, you will have to find out in my next post, which will be put up later this BC Saturday Morning. Good luck everybody!

Breeders' Cup Friday Thoughts

Breeders’ Cup Friday is the first day of the World Championships. Today is mostly devoted for the ladies, with the five championship races for the females, but the Cup races will start off with the Marathon. There are other races on the undercard, but this blog will mention only the one precedent the Breeders’ Cup races, the Grade 3 Ack Ack Handicap, then delve into the BC races. This blog has done well on the undercard, and cannot resist pointing out a horse that could be a future star in the making. We shall start with that race.

(Don’t forget to enter the “Off The Board” contest run by this blog. So much fun for chucking a low-odds horse it shouldn’t be legal!)

Ack Ack Handicap – Grade 3 – 1m & 1/16th
This race has some upcoming three year-olds and a couple of wily veterans. The defending champion returns in this race in #4 Demarcation, although the distance was only a mile last year. He ran alright last time out, and picks up jockey Calvin Borel. He appears to have a tough task ahead of him versus three improving three-year olds. The morning line favorite, and the selection for this blog, is #1 Apart. This son of Flatter has been training in the morning with the best horse in the Al Stall Jr. barn, Blame, who is the 2nd choice in the Breeders’ Cup Classic tomorrow. He has been holding his own in the morning and is ready for his first race against older. #2 Colizeo won last out over #6 Jackson Bend, who was returning off the layoff. Colizeo likes this track, having won 2 of 3 races at Churchill Downs. He drew off to a nice win on that day, and should be on the lead. Jackson Bend should stalk him. Both have worked well in the interim. The other two in the field are the other two elder statesmen in the race, #2 Stream Cat and #3 Silver Edition. Stream Cat comes in off a year layoff and this has all the makings of a prep race for him. Silver Edition stretches out for the first time in a while, and looks to be overmatched.

Selections: Apart / Colizeo / Jackson Bend (maybe a straight trifecta to maximize value?)

Now we hit the Breeders’ Cup races. First up is the Marathon, going a mile and three-quarters on the main track.

Breeders’ Cup Marathon – Grade 3 – 1m & ¾
The morning line favorite is the Grade 1 winning #7 Awesome Gem. This gelded son of Awesome Again always comes with the same late kick no matter that distance, and should not be affected by the increase in distance. The one they will have to catch is #6 Gabriel’s Hill. He appears to be lone speed, and will take them as far as he can go. His pedigree states that he should be fine at the distance, and several close finishes at shorter distances. The buzz horse has been #2 Prince Will I Am, who is the co-2nd choice on the morning line at 4-1. He rallies from well back in the pack, and his pedigree just begs for as much distance as you can give it. The blog’s choice is a 15-1 longshot named #11 Precision Break. This son of Silver Deputy has been racing in Europe over the turf and synthetic in races no shorter than a mile and a half recently, and has plenty of stamina built in. He races on dirt for the first time on Friday, but has an American dirt pedigree on both sides. He may not have the class as some of the field, but he is worth a shot at 15-1.

Selections:
Precision Break (win/place bet)
Prince Will I Am
Gabriel’s Hill

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf – Grade 2 – 1m (turf)

This field of 14 is filled with all types of horses, and this group proved to be quite a handful to come up with a selection. I ended up on #13 Together. She is a European invader who last time out finished third in a field of 20, so the large field will not be a factor. That race was a straightaway race, and her previous races shows that she may prefer racing around a turn. While she goes two turns for the first time, she should not have a problem with the distance. The favorite is #7 Winter Memories. This daughter of international known turf sire El Prado won the Grade 3 Miss Grillo Stakes last out at Belmont in fine fashion, with a burst she blew by the field and caught the eye of this blogger. She figures to be a short price favorite to remain undefeated, and one has to worry whether she will get encounter traffic problems. #11 More Than Real comes in off a 2nd place finish in the Grade 3 Natalma at Woodbine, behind the #10 New Normal, but that race was around one turn. In her maiden win, More Than Real won a two-turn race at Saratoga rather nicely. She could spice up the exotics at 10-1. While I like Together, this race looks like a good spot to spread in the multi-race wagers if you think the favorites are vulnerable.

Selections:
Together
Winter Memories
More Than Real

Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint – Grade 1 – 7 furlongs
The first Grade 1 on the day is the Filly & Mare Sprint. This race has a full field of 14, and anyone of about 9 horses has a chance at winning this race. There are many speed types, a good amount of stalkers, and a few closers mixed in. The 7 furlongs distance is a specialist distance, and some may struggle to get that final furlong. The morning line favorite is #13 Rightly So, who hopes to continue her lifetime streak of never finishing off the board. She won the Grade 1 Ballerina last time out at Saratoga. She is a true speedball, and look to take the field wire to wire. However, her last win was over a track that was very speed-favoring, and will certainly find company on the front end. The defending champion is #4 Informed Decision. She won this race over a synthetic surface, in which is 10-12 lifetime. With the race on dirt, where she has run well, but not always her best, she looks to be vulnerable at short odds. The selection is #1 My Jen. This rapidly improving 3 year-old filly took the Grade 3 Gallant Bloom over #2 Sara Louise and #6 Moontune Missy. She relaxed a bit further off the pace than normal, and just got up. She should appreciate the extra 1/16th of a mile. At 15-1 morning line, I’m going to take chance at blowing up the toteboard. Sara Louise is another who I would use in the pick 3s & 4s, as that race was her first since November of 2009. #8 Switch and #9 Sweet August Moon ship in from Southern California, and look to maybe have a chance to add some value in the trifecta.

Selections:
My Jen (WP bet)
Sara Louise
Rightly So

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies – Grade 1 – 1m & 1/16th
Another tough race on this Friday card, as an evenly matched group of 12 is entered. #1 Indian Gracey has been scratched due to heat in her hoof. The favorite is #8 A Z Warrior. Daughter of freshman sire Bernardini won her first race on dirt in style when capturing the Grade 1 Frizette at Belmont. The extra 1/16th of a mile could prove to be her undoing, but she has at least shown the ability to rate. The selection is #9 Delightful Mary. This daughter of Limehouse, who has some of his greatest victories over this very Churchill Downs track, will be running on the dirt for the first time. Losing as the favorite last time out to a loose on the lead leader, she projects to be sitting about 4th or 5th going down the backstretch. Hopefully she will kick on in the stretch. Another trying dirt for the first time is #12 Tell a Kelly. This daughter of Tapit made her two-turn debut last out when finishing second to Rigoletta in the Oak Leaf. She went straight to Churchill after the race and has put together three steady drills over the surface. With Calvin Borel as her jockey, you cannot discount her at all. Also of interest is the foreign invader #2 Theyskens’ Theory, who is also sired by Bernardini, and has a classic American distance dirt pedigree. A definite spread race. Anyone with a strong opinion in here should be handsomely rewarded if correct.

Selections:
Delightful Mary
Tell a Kelly
Theyskens’ Theory

Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf – Grade 1 – 1m & 3/8 – (turf)
This field is filled with international flair, as 5 nations have a chance at claiming the title. The favorite and defending champion is #7 Midday. This daughter of Oasis Dream has won her last three races this year, and looks like a strong candidate to defend her crown. She has already won at a distance further than this, and may be the shortest favorite the entire weekend. #2 Red Desire ran an okay 3rd last out in the Grade 1 Flower Bowl last out, and looks to be the one with the best chance of upsetting the favorite. She has better acclimated to the states, and should not have a problem with the distance. The best local hope is either #2 Éclair De Lune (SoCal via Germany) or #6 Harmonious.

Selections:
Red Desire
Midday
Harmonious / Éclair De Lune (box the top 2 in an exacta. Play those over the other two in a trifecta)

Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic – Grade 1 – 1m & 1/8
For a more detail analysis, visit the Thorofan Handicapper’s Corner, where I handicapped this race. But any of you who read this blog know that I have said since April that #1 Life At Ten would win this race, and here win in the Beldame certified she will be tough to beat. I also think that all the travel Blind Luck this year catches up to her, and she finishes off the board.

Selections:
Life At Ten
Malibu Prayer/Unrivaled Belle/Acoma/Acting Happy (key Life at Ten on top; put these four underneath in the exacta and trifecta).

There is the rundown for Friday’s Breeders’ Cup races. Tomorrow brings thought on Saturday’s card. Until then, good capping and great betting!

Breeders' Cup Post Position & Morning Line Thoughts

This post will cover some of my thoughts about the post positions and morning line for the BC, plus a tentative schedule of my thoughts on the BC races. Let's talk about the latter first. Tentatively, this blog will share its thoughts on the first day of races on tomorrow, with thoughts on Saturday (except the Classic) on Thursday morning. On Thursday night (9 PM ET), this blog's thoughts on the Classic will be revealed.

Now onto thoughts on today's post position draws:

• Lookin at Lucky still can't catch a break, as he ended up drawing the outside post in the Classic. He will break from the #12 hole, and will hopefully not get parked wide on both turns.
• Others who shall be at low odds who drew poorly are Harve De Grace in the Ladies' Classic, Pluck in the Juvenile Turf, Tell A Kelly in the Juvenile Fillies and Together in the Juvenile Fillies Turf.
• Some attractive prices on the morning line are Red Desire at 8-1 in the Filly & Mare Turf, Jaycito at 8-1 in the Juvenile and the entire field in the Filly and Mare Sprint except the favorites of Rightly So and Informed Decision.
• Morning Line going in the Dirt Mile and not the Classic caught many off guard, but that was nowhere near the shock of when he was installed as the favorite in the race. The odds will prove to be dramatically different come post time for the race, with Crown of Thorns, Vineyard Haven and Here Comes Ben via for favoritism

This blog invites you to enter the "Off The Board" contest, where one can take a stand against low odds horses in a unique format that proves to be challenging yet fun. Don't think Lucky will hit the board? Put it on there!

A Few Odds and Ends - BC Style

With the announcement of pre-entries tomorrow for the Breeders' Cup, the horse racing nation waits with bated breath for them to come out. This blog just has a few thoughts to say before we start to dive into the rich, meaty juiciness that is the Breeders' Cup past performances.

• The sale for Breeders' Cup Mile-bound Sidney's Candy still has not been finalized. One wonders what is holding it up, and whether the Craigs will still be the owners come post time.
• The decision to put the Turf Sprint as the start of the Pick 6 still boggles the mind. Why would the powers that be put a race that looks to be easier to solve than the Dirt Mile is beyond me. Maybe this was an appeasement to those who prefer turf, now that the Pick 6 is once again evenly split between main track races and grass races.
• How is possible that Calvin Borel aka Calvin Bo-rail aka Saint Calvin of Churchill still has not been publicly announced on a horse for the Classic? It is inconceivable to consider that he would not have a mount in the Classic, let alone every single dirt race the entire weekend.
• This blog wonders what the track will be like, since there is no precipitation predicted to fall between now and the Breeders' Cup in Louisville. Will the track be a repeat of 2000, when it was veritable parking lot? Or maybe 2006, when the rail was a great place to be?
• If you would like the chime on what you think the morning line would be for the Classic, post it here and join in with the others below.

The Solo SoCal Shipper in for Super Saturday Weekend (Part 2)

(Forgive me for taking this long to post this, but schoolwork caught up with me in a big way, forcing this blog to step aside to address it. Here is the second half of my Belmont adventure)

Day 2 of Super Saturday weekend was an different kind of experience compared to Saturday. For one, this blog was not going to Belmont by car, but by public transportation. This blog would try to catch up with someone who he had missed on Super Saturday.. This blog would try to enjoy the majesty and wonder that is Belmont Park, something that couldn’t be done the day before with the helter-skelter schedule that end up being Super Saturday. Finally, this blog would travel the city alone in search of someone.

The day started with this blog and Connie figuring out our plan of attack on how to get all the way from Newark to Belmont Park. While this blog is well-versed in the so-so public transportation system in Los Angeles, this would be a whole other experience. With directions provided by Cory, we were off from the hotel. We took the hotel shuttle back to the airport, where we caught the bus to Newark Penn Station. From there, we caught the PATH over the river into Manhattan. After a quick trip on the LIRR and a one stop ride on the subway, it was one more bus to Belmont Park. The bus went into the track, stopping right next to where the LIRR stop is for Belmont Park. (Which sadly only is used on Belmont Stakes day.) The strangest part of the trip was the fact that you can eat on the subway and buses in New York, something you cannot do in Los Angeles. The entire system puts L.A.'s to shame.

Once Connie and this blog arrived at Belmont, we went our separate ways, only occasionally touching base with each other throughout the day. This blog ran Teresa (@bklynbckstretch) and we had a good chat and she provided me with the key piece of information on how to travel the city alone to get to that someone. I took advantage of the less-crowded conditions and walked around the facility. Belmont is such a beautiful facility. Walking around the backyard, this blog soaked in the convivial atmosphere that must exist when it is packed with people. (The weather was rather brisk and conspired against it being as full). Walking around the immense grandstand, discovering the nooks and crannies were people hang out, each with their own visible atmosphere, was a great experience.

The 3 co-features on the day were the Grade 2 Kelso at a mile on the main track, the Grade 3 Miss Grillo for 2yo fillies on the grass going a 1m & 1/16th, and the Grade 3 Pilgrim for 2yo males on the inner turf at the same 1m & 1/16th distance. Air Support won the Pilgrim, and Tizway won the Kelso. The star of the day was the winner of the Miss Grillo, Winter Memories. She won from the outside post with an impressive turn of foot, prevailing with ease. Her connections were very excited after the race and she looks like a filly with a future. After the Kelso, this blog got a chance to catch up with Joe (@Joe_Depaolo), who this blog had seen the day before but did not have a chance to talk with at length. We had a good chat, and after the last race, this blog met back up with Connie and headed back on our journey to the hotel.

After taking a bus back to the subway stop, we discovered that there was a quicker way back to the city, by taking one train all the way back to Manhattan. There this blog said my goodbye to Connie, and proceeded to kill a little time in hoping that the guy I hoped to talk to the entire trip would call me back so I could go meet up with him. After an agonizing 45 minutes, he left me a message saying to meet him. Using the tips Teresa gave me, this blog was able to get down there in no time. The person I had hoped to talk to is none other than Ernie Munick, a world-class guy, creator of a great community on Facebook called Thoroughbred Racing in New York (TRNY) and currently doing great work for BreedersCup360.com with his "E Train" segments. This blog saw him several times during the day on Saturday, but was unable to get close enough to get his attention. Even though it was just a brief 20-minute conversation covering a wide swath of racing topics while under the subway awning to hide from the rain, it was worth it.

As this blog worked its way back to the hotel in the inclement weather late at night, time was taken to think about what this weekend meant, both from a horse racing standpoint and a personal standpoint. From a racing standpoint, Life At Ten solidified her spot as the second bet older female in the country; Winter Memories could be a future star in the making, and Blame ran a good race, lost, but did nothing to impair my love for him. Plus, all the loss did was help his price grow come post time for the Classic. On a personal level, this blog did several things that at this time last year would have been inconceivable. Going on a trip alone, flying cross-country, staying with someone they had never met before all were new experiences that will be cherished for until the end of time. What will the future hold for this blog? Who knows. But the journey will be the most enjoyable part.

The Solo SoCal Shipper in for Super Saturday weekend (Part 1)

Last weekend was an action-packed, stakes-filled time of racing. This blog decided that it would think outside of the box about where to see all of the Breeders' Cup preps. One would assume that a huge horse racing fan who is based in Southern California would be plenty satisfied with the grade 1 extravaganza that was being offered by the Oak Tree @ Hollywood Park meet. With the venerable Zenyatta as its star attraction, why would one want to be anywhere else?

Yet this blog wanted more. This blog wanted to experience something new, somewhere new. The chance to see not one but two of "Ten's Top T-Breds" in person for the first, and maybe only, time in their racing career(s) proved to be too irresistible of a siren's call to ignore. This blog went right on by Hollywood Park to LAX and hopped on a flight headed to New York. Final destination: Belmont Park.

Now this was no ordinary trip to the track for this blog. Not only had it never been on a flight by himself, it had not been East of the Rockies nor to a race track outside of California. Plus, it would be this blog's first time meeting with large groups of people from several different forms of social media. Add in sharing a hotel room with a non-family member and all of these firsts just added to the anxiety of taking this trip.

After an easy flight across the country, this blog landed on Friday night, where it met up with Connie (aka MsVFAB on Twitter) at the airport, who flew in from Cleveland and a fellow member of Team Blame, a group of "tweeps" who believe Blame will win the Breeders' Cup Classic. We even have custom made t-shirts to show our loyalty. (Connie is also an ardent Fly Down supporter, and was crushed over his sale to Saudi owner for fear of him never returning to the U.S. after this year.) The next morning, fellow Team Blame member Derek (NJDerek), who gave us a ride to Belmont from the hotel both ways. After a smooth, traffic-free ride, we arrived at Belmont just after the gates opened. This blog had two separate groups from two sources of social media to meet that day. One was from Twitter and the other from the TVG Community (TVGC) site, which had provided hats for this blog to distribute to the other members who were scheduled to be there. (Throughout the rest of the card, I ping-ponged between the two groups, probably at a detriment to better social interaction among me and either group.)

After saying hello and looking at the horses in the paddock for the first with the TVGC group, this blog watched the first from Belmont from the apron right at the finish line. It was a winning one, as Ya Gotta Have Soul came from just off the pace to take the victory. As the card moved forward, members from both groups filed in, with this blog meeting up with fellow Team Blame members Dylan (DylanTWM), Steve (stmunday), Bryan (ghostzapper04) and Kevin (CollinsGhost). All of them were good to meet and easy to talk with. Near the midpoint of the card, I was lucky to met the wonderful Sid (SidFernando). This was one of the highlights of the trip, as Sid is such a knowledgeable person of the sport and a great guy. With him was the (as Kevin kept calling him) "World Famous" o_crunk (real name Chris), who just coming off his well-received editorial in Thoroughbred Times.

The day went on with some highs (Life At Ten returning to form) and some lows (the camera breaking as the field of the Hirsch left the paddock). Then the big race came, the Jockey Club Gold Cup. This blog finally got to see its top horse in person, and it was worth the trip. Too bad the outcome of the race wasn't as Haynesfield snuck away to a lonely lead and won, disappointing Team Blame. But the team knows that this loss was an aberration and will only lead to higher price comes Breeders' Cup Classic time.

After the card, some of us filed into the clubhouse to watch the Lady's Secret. While there, Ian (ianlozada) managed to find those who were left of Team Blame, plus Sid. Ian had promised this blog quality pizza (something that this blog knows does not exists in Los Angeles.), so after the race Connie, Sid, Ian, Derek and I went off for pizza (having said our goodbyes to Steve and Dylan, who chose to stay a little longer to watch the Goodwood). We ate at Grimaldi's (which has now completely ruined pizza for me out here, as nothing is even close). Ian took some pictures of us (with Sid taking the ones with Ian in them).

After we all said are goodbyes and Derek drove us back to the hotel, my mind started to think about what I saw that day and what laid in store tomorrow. I went to bed even more certain (if that's possible), that Blame would avenge in the Classic, that Life at Ten was back to form, and most importantly, that i made the right decision in coming. Now, how did i handle taking public transportation to Belmont from Newark? Who else did i meet? That will have to wait until tomorrow...

Putting The Horse Before The Cart? Or Without A Cart?

Earlier this month, Oak Tree released their promotional schedule for the Oak Tree at Hollywood Park meet. There are 5 giveaways at the meet, with the first three involving Zenyatta in some ways. The last two are on consecutive days on the closing weekend of the meet. A giveaway for every weekend save one. But is that too many giveaways, especially Zenyatta giveaways, for only 5 week meet?

Let us first give a rundown on what the giveaways are and when they will be handed out. Opening weekend brings “the queen’s” last competitive appearance in Southern California in the Grade 1 Lady’s Secret (soon to be re-rechristened the Zenyatta Stakes), and a Zenyatta Hat will be given away. Also on this day, 3 other Grade 1 stakes will be run. Next weekend brings 2 more Grade 1 stakes but no giveaway. Weekend #3 brings with it a Zenyatta picture, and the Grade 2 Oak Tree Derby. The 4th weekend comes with the signature stein giveaway (moved from its normal opening week position), featuring Z. The last weekend will have the only two non-Z giveaways. Cal Cup Day on Saturday will bring with a shirt, and the next day will close out the meet with a sweatshirt to be handed out.

The above sounds like a normal promotional schedule, no? Not for Oak Tree. Oak Tree in the past gave away 3 items a meet. The stein on opening day/opening weekend, another giveaway in the middle, and the ubiquitous California Cup giveaway. (From here forward, “California Cup” will be shortened to Cal Cup) That was the schedule for years. It allowed for some time to occur between each giveaway. With five giveaways this season, especially on back-to-back days on closing weekend, this blog wonders if it may not have the desired effect of boosting attendance and revenue. Why have giveaways on consecutive days, especially on closing weekend, after having 3 other giveaways in the same month? It could be that the expected drop in revenue that much with the move from Santa Anita to Hollywood Park is so much that Oak Tree must resort to a “chuck-and-pray” strategy of giving away as much free stuff as possible to lure customers to make the driver over from Arcadia.

Let this blog make it undeniably clear: It has nothing against honoring Zenyatta with multiple giveaways in a meet. This blog expected that this year’s stein would honor her and her win in the 2009 Breeders Cup Classic. This blog also expected that the first giveaway would also be Zenyatta-themed. This blog did not expect a third Zenyatta giveaway, but it is nothing but another honor to the great mare. But this blog has a problem with the giveaways. The problem this blog has is the order and number of the giveaways. Why does the order and number matter?

The order and number of the giveaways may lead to a phenomenon this blog will call “Promotional Burnout”. With so many giveaways offered this meet, this blog wonders how effective the last two giveaways will be on attendance. With the first three giveaways being Z-themed, it is a guarantee that people will come out to collect them. The first giveaway will have the highest attendance, since that is the day of the Lady’s Secret, which is the next target for Zenyatta. The next two giveaway days, which are also Z-themed, could receive a “bounce-back” effect from the first day.

The “bounce-back” effect is an issue, as Oak Tree is pandering to the existing audience. They know that her fans will come (or at least hope that they will come) out for three successive Zenyatta giveaways. Yet doing this strategy could come at a major cost. If the crowds show up for the next two giveaways. will they be able to afford to come back for Cal Cup day? If it is a struggle to get people out for those two days, what chance does Cal Cup day have? Will any of the new people (which is part of the reason these giveaways occur, so that new fans can be enticed to visit) come out for a non-Zenyatta giveaway day, given the choice of a free Zenyatta-related item or a non-Zenyatta related item?

The worry that this blog has is that Cal Cup day will be the most affected by the promotional schedule. By the time Cal Cup comes around, anyone who is using the promotion as part of the reason to come out may have used up enough of their “entertainment budget”, for lack of a better term, that they will not be able to come out that day. Furthermore, even if they have the financial ability to come, it is doubtful that they the people in Los Angeles will have the drive to go to the track for the third straight weekend. The fact that instead of two full weeks worth of advertising for Cal Cup, it will get barely a week. As of now, unless one decided to dig around Oak Tree’s Facebook page, one would not know about the giveaway on Cal Cup day. The racing site for Oak Tree is still not up, and nowhere on Hollywood Park’s website does it list a giveaway. Yet all three of the Zenyatta giveaways are seen on the home page. The missed opportunity to promote Cal Cup prominently before Zenyatta runs, when interest is at its highest is a shame, landing another blow to the already struggling California-bred program.

This edition of the Cal Cup is especially important with the closing of one of the major farms out here in California, River Edge Farm. The number of horses bred out here has plummeted the last few years. This closing hints at the tough environment that exist out here in California. The Cal Cup (and its sister Gold Rush festival at Hollywood Park in spring) are very important to the Cal-bred industry. These days show off the stars of the program, and how it is possible for the little guy to get a piece of it. These days are a chance to get the fans to come out to see and wager on the home-bred team. These days allow the fans to see a horse who might be around for the next few years, running multiple times locally. These type of horses that can be seen a few times a year without having to travel the country. This type of marketing can build loyalty that can bring fans back to the game.

Where else could you have seen Lava Man, in the infancy of his stakes career, in a thrilling loss to Cozy Guy in the 2004 Cal Cup Classic? Where else you could have seen 2002 Hollywood Gold Cup winner Sky Jack win his first stake in the 2000 Cal Cup Classic, then come back from knee surgery to win that Gold Cup? Where could you have seen the game gelding Yougottawanna give a glimpse of what would be a long, fruitful multi-year career in his upset of Officer in the 2001 Cal Cup Juvenile? Where else could you have seen Cavonnier, who was the shortest nose away from giving trainer Bob Baffert his first Kentucky Derby win, cap off his two year-old season with a win the 1995 Cal Cup Juvenile? Where else could you have found all of these Southern California stars of tomorrow at the same place but at the Cal Cup?

Zenyatta is the first horse in a very long time that that deserves to have multiple giveaways in the same meet. Once she retires though, how many of those fans will come back? Especially without someone new, that they might see for years to come? That is why it bothers me that Cal Cup gets the short end of the stick when it comes to the promotional schedule this year. The horse shortage out here will continue to be exacerbated unless horses are bred out here in California. Without enough horses being bred, the California Cup will disappear. Without the Cal Cup, another big day for the California breeder/owner/trainer is gone. It will become a downward spiral of doom. As much as love and want to celebrate Z, i just can't stand to see the Cal Cup, the breeding industry and horse racing overall in California die a painful death.