2013 Breeders Cup Friday picks (Undercard Included) - Sparing Twitter Feeds

Let me be perfectly honest with you: This post only exists because I wish to state who I like for each race on the Breeders' Cup Friday card, but I don't want to flood anyone's Twitter feed with a whole bunch of tweets. So this is my kind of odd way of being nice while still getting my opinion out there.

On to the picks!!

Race 1
Another year, another "Best Bet" being on the undercard instead of in a Breeders' Cup race. This year it comes right off the bat with #12 Omega Star. Bred for turf, enough early speed to stay in contact with the leader through the first bend, much better sprinting than routing, a good outside post, and should be a VERY good price.

Confidence Rating: 9.3

Race 2
New year, same idea. Last year, I liked Basmati, but picked someone else on top because I didn't adjust to track quick enough. Not this year. I know there is other speed, but he's proven at this distance on this day. I would use EVERY speed horse if playing multi-horse exotics.
Confidence Rating: 5.6

Race 3 - Golden State Juvenile
California Chrome is either going to be on the lead or just barely off it. He should appreciate the extra distance. The favorite Tamarando is an ABSOLUTE play against based on how the track is playing.
Confidence Rating: 5.5

Race 4 - Golden State Juvenile Fillies
If the track were fair, I would take a shot with Whatsallthedrama, but it's not, so I'll take a swing for the fences with Swiss Lake Yodeler. She has speed from the outside draw and will have to gun hard. Considering her only win was at Fairplex, she will be a big price.
Confidence Rating: 4.7

Race 5 - Twilight Derby
Normally I love this race because it has a good mix of up and coming horses and play-against milers. This year though...THEY ALL LOOK LIKE MILERS! I know some of them won at today's distance, but I still have doubts on them. Kid Dreams is going to get overbet off his big number he earned last time (not sure HOW you come up with that number without any comparable races). I'm gonna stab with Outside Nashville. Hopefully with his post the jockey will elect to use more of his positional speed to stay closer to the pace and secure a good trip from his outside post.
Confidence Rating: 5

Race 6 - Breeders' Cup Marathon
Threw a dart, landed on Suns Out Guns Out. So I'll go with that.
Confidence Rating: 0.01

Race 7 - Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf
50% lifetime winning percentage for the writer's picks in this race. I never go with the "A" Euro (in this case Giovanni Boldini) in here because he always gets overbet. I going with Wilshire Boulevard instead. I like my juvenile Euros well-seasoned (7 starts) and a purely gut feeling has me thinking that he will appreciate two turns. If I had to pick a U.S. based horse, I'll swing for the fences and go with Bon Accord, mainly because I bet on him when he won the Calder Turf Dash at 46-1!
Confidence Rating: 6 (6.5 that one of the two will win)

Race 8 - Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile
Broadway Empire and Golden Ticket are the only two horses coming out of a nine furlong race. A nine furlong race has produced at least one of the top 3 finishers in each of the six runnings of this race. I expect that to continue today. (Click on the link to see my pre-bias thoughts on the races, via Thorofan,)
Confidence Rating: 6.5 one of the two wins, 9 at least one hits the board.

Race 9 - Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
A first time U.S. horse or Ready To Act win this race. Slight lean to Chriselliam, for "obvious" reasons. (In vague preference: Chriselliam - Al Thakhira - Ready To Act - Vorda). The post dooms My Conquestadory unless she is a bigger monster than she has already shown.
Confidence Rating: 4

Race 10 - Breeders' Cup Distaff
Until the track came up so speed-favoring on Thursday, #2 Authenticity was an absolutely standout to me. I can't see how Mike Smith on Royal Delta was going to let Beholder get in an easy lead, yet I have no doubt that Gary Stevens would engage in a protracted duel if Mikey decided to go for the lead hard. (See Tiz The Truth's race on Sunday at Santa Anita as an example of why I think that. I don't trust Close Hatches going nine furlongs against better horses than she has been facing lately. Princess of Sylmar screams "over the top" in her after this race was added on to her campaign at the last minute. Street Girl is probably not fast enough, but if it all goes to heck, she could pick up a major slice at a big price.
But now that the track seems to favoring speed, I wonder if either Beholder or Royal Delta will get tired enough, even after dueling, for Authenticity to catch them on this track. Authenticity is still the pick, but...
Confidence Rating: 6.5

As for that Arabian race the ends the card, for purely entertainment purposes only I like #7 Ayers A. But that is just purely for fun. Good luck today folks.

Breeders' Cup Friday Thoughts (Undercard Included)

The biggest two consecutive days of racing in the North America are upon us with the Breeders' Cup. Some of the best from around the world have come to go for millions in purses spread over 15 races. Day One will showcase 6 races, with the main attraction being the Ladies' Classic. Two undefeated stars will throw in down with the division leader among others in an epic battle for divisional honors. Four undercard races will be run, with three allowances before the Breeders' Cup races commence and the Twilight (formerly the Oak Tree) Derby will end the card. While most folks will focus on just the Breeders' Cup races, I love the undercard races. Not only are the usually good betting opportunities, there is always a chance that a future Breeders' Cup horse could run. In 2006, Maryfield won a race on the undercard, then went on next year to win the inaugural Filly & Mare Sprint. Also included as a counterweight are thoughts on the BC races from a life-long handicapper and friend of the blog, Chris M.

RACE 1

The first race is a first level allowance going a mile and an eighth over the turf. The favorite is likely to be the European import Saint Loup. He was Group 3 placed after just losing the bob. This is most likely a prep for the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby next month at Hollywood Park. His trainer has had success in the past with shippers from Europe, including Breeders' Cup Mile winner Val Royal, and more recently, Loup Breton. He has a steady pattern of works for the race, and gets an out-of-town rider. He is a must use. There figures to be enough pace to make it open for anyone to win. The pick is Segway. This son of Giant's Causeway won first time out over this course. Last time out he finished a flat 6th in first race in 9 months. He was well backed in that race, even though his trainer is only so-so first off the layoff. The horse should appreciate the extra furlong to work with. His trainer has plenty of experience winning on Breeders' Cup days in the past.
Play: Win bet on Segway; Exacta Box of Segway & Saint Loup
Confidence: 7.5 out of 10

RACE 2

There is a ton of early speed in this race. BIG TIZ can take advantage of the expected hot pace. She has enough tactical speed to remain in contact early and inherit the lead from the tiring leaders late in the stretch. MISS OOPS steps way up in class, but can earn the same trip as the top selection. WARREN’S AMBER will be rolling late from the back of the pack and could pick up a slice.

Play:  Exacta of Big Tiz / Miss Oops, Warren's Amber

Confidence: 8.5

RACE 3

NORTHERN IOWA cuts back off a close 3^rd in a minor stakes at Fairplex Park. He has a running style would lend itself to this extended sprint. BASMATI was knocking heads with some the best in his 2yo season when last scene. He makes his return off an 11 month layoff in this race. His best is competitive enough to win. SEVEN BRIDGES comes off a maiden win going longer and could clunk up for a share. GOT EVEN is a play against, as there is other speed present to prevent him from establishing a clear lead, which he needs to win.

Play: Win bet on Northern Iowa

Confidence Rating: 7

RACE 4 – JUVENILE SPRINT

The first Breeders’ Cup race of the weekend is the Juvenile Sprint. In its 2^nd year, it attracts a compact field of 7. MERIT MAN is a worthy favorite, as he can set the lead or sit just off the pace. SUPER NINETY NINE looks to keep the crown in the Baffert barn for another year with a track-and-attack trip. SWEET SHIRLEY MAE is a filly going against the boys. She has plenty of early speed but showed a new dimension when closing off a hot pace.

Play:  NONE

Confidence rating: 3

Chris M's take: This is a race that should be cut from BC weekend. In two years it has produced two boring heats. After this year the Baffert haters will have good cause to raise their voice again when Super 99 wins by two. Blah.

RACE 5 - MARATHON

The longest Breeders’ Cup race is up next in the Marathon. COMMANDER will have the lead early, but considering his unruly demeanor witnessed yesterday while schooling, one seriously questions his ability to last the 14 furlongs. WORTH REPEATING is the horse most likely to inherit the lead if/when Commander stops. He has a win over the track at a similar distance and looked great during the week. An interesting longshot is CALIDOSCOPIO comes in off a 5 month layoff, when winning a Grade 2 in his native Argentina. He has run well in similar situations in the past. ATIGUN and JAYCITO are Triple Crown refugees from different years who seem like the same horse, one who will just clunk along and end getting a share.

Play:  Win bet on Worth Repeating

Selections:

#12 WORTH REPEATING

#6 CALIDOSCOPIO

#1 ATIGUN / #5 JAYCITO

Confidence Rating: 7

Chris M's take:  Another race to cut. This is the only dirt stake in America where your lone F can have three lengths on the field after a 53 half and be 8th turning into the stretch. If you hit a single here your either a time traveler or a descendant of Charlie Whittingham. If I had to pick one here it would be Fame and Glory as he has run in the last two runnings of 20 furlong Cialis Gold Cup.

RACE 6 – JUVY FILLY TURF

Tough race. SKY LANTERN comes off a grade 1 win in Ireland. She ran well on harder turf in Europe like she will see today. SUSTAINED could try to take the field gate-to-wire from the outside post in a race bereft of early speed. Her trainer is known for such aggressive tactics in paceless affairs. WATERWAY RUN won going left-handed in Europe, and has a very American pedigree. NANCY O could spice up the bottom rungs of the exotics at a big price after a failed attempt on dirt.

Play: Maybe a .10 super using these in a "chuck-and-pray" stab.

Confidence rating: 5.5

Chris M's take: 14 youngsters stacked on the 7F+ green and you better cross your fingers that your selection(s) don’t have major trouble. BC longshots usually blow up the tote when the favorites are closers on the turf and there is a murky pace scenario, which is the case here. Sky Lantern, Watsdachances, and Spring Venture all look formidable and will be on my tickets but the hometown Flashy Ways with Talamo I see taking control early from post 13 and try to hold. If she isn’t sent a five wide trip is likely so @ 15/1 she is a play.

RACE 7 – JUVENILE FILLIES

The tagline for this race could be “Speed, speed and more speed!” BROKEN SPELL will be a huge price, but she would appear to be able to hang just close enough to grind her way to a win in what looks to be a staggerfest in the lane. EXECUTIVEPRIVILEGE has done nothing wrong in her brief career, going 5-for-5. But she has looked very flat the last two weeks and could be beatable. DREAMING OF JULIA has shown at least what appears to be ability to rate, though she has never done actually done it.

Play: Exacta boxes keying Broken Spell with the other two + $2 WP

Confidence Rating: 4

Chris M's take: There are two questions here. Can Beholder get the distance and will either of the Pletchers be sent after her? If she can get the trip her last points her as the superior 2yo now. The 44 flat half and 109 final came on roughly the same surface Coil and company ran on two days later when they went 3 or 4 clicks slower at each point of call. True, there was a severe speed/inside bias the first seven days of the meet but if you can recall a better 6F run by a 2yo, of either sex, in the last 30 years I’d like to hear it. Garrett, from the rail, will race ride either of the Pletchers if they try to contest the lead. Executiveprivilege hasn’t looked right in her last two works, beat a poor field in the Chandelier when the start eliminated her primary competition, and she coasted on and easy lead. ExecP is the favorite I least like for the weekend. And yes, as clearly the best horse in the race Beholder can get the 8.5F’s, even with her breeding

RACE 8 – FILLY & MARE TURF

THE FUGUE has been specifically pointed to this race by her connections. Coming off a tough loss in the Yorkshire Oaks to one of the favorites in the BC Turf, she has looked good here in the states since arriving. She seems to prefer little give in the ground. NAHRAIN found her winning form when shipping over for the Flower Bowl last time out. She has won several strong races over firmer turf and should appreciate the shorter distance compared to last year. LADY OF SHAMROCK may be the best 3yo turf filly in America and loves this course.

Play: Some sort of exotic keying The Fugue on top + plus a flat win bet.

Confidence Rating: 9

Chris M's take:  Another deep and contentious turf race complicated by a lack of pace. Going six deep here with Zagora, Nahrain (why the blinks add off a win?), The Fugue, Marketing Mix, I’m a Dreamer, and Ridasiyna. A female Precious Passion would have a two pole backstretch lead vs. this bunch.

RACE 9 – LADIES’ CLASSIC

The Ladies’ Classic is the marquee race of the day. It brings together several stars of the game together it would figures to be a good race. ROYAL DELTA comes off a smashing win in the Beldame. She figures to sit a smart trip tracking 3-4 lengths behind the speed. GRACE HALL comes off a good win in the Indiana Oaks, can sit a similar trip tracking the speed and will offer major value in the exotics. QUESTING could steal the race on the front end if no one engages her early. Both AWESOME FEATHER & MY MISS AURELIA come into the race undefeated, but both are horses who will fade late at low odds.

Play: $1 exacta Royal Delta / Grace Hall, Questing + $1 trifecta Royal Delta / Grace Hall, Questing / Grace Hall, Questing

Confidence Rating: 9.5

Chris M's take: Now here we have a race! There is a lone F here, IF the jock chooses to use it. Questing is flat out faster than Love and Pride and can utilize the existing bias by taking the lead. Of the two undefeated, My Miss Aurelia has the most to prove. She’s only run two turn races and that last no pace, last quarter drag race will not set her up for an effort where she will have to run an entire race vs. a field 3 to 4 times tougher than she has faced. Awesome Feather has a GR1 vs. older but hasn’t faced this caliber either. Both will be over bet. Royal Delta was the beneficiary of  the anti-speed Churchill surface last year and a poor out by It’s Tricky in last @ Belmont. Throw in the abysmal record of Belmont horses going West and she is a play against.  Don’t overlook Grace Hall for the unders as well as the bomber Class Included, who is only 16-10-6-0.

RACE 10 – TWILIGHT DERBY

POWER FOOT had no chance in his last race as the 1-2 runners early finished that way. With a change in venue & trainer, he has a big chance to blow up the tote. GRANDEUR has run well over firm turf and on left-handed courses. He struggled against group 3 types in England, but that may have been because of the course conditions. SPEAKING OF WHICH comes in a graded stakes winner already, having taking a Group 3 at a longer distance. This might be too short of a race for his talent.

Play: $2 WPS on Power Foot

Selections:

#3 POWER FOOT

#7 GRANDUER

#2 SPEAKING OF WHICH

Confidence Rating: 8.9

Good luck on day one folks.

Skepticism Warranted for Rodeo Drive Runners in Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf

(written by a friend of the blog, Jordan Miller)

The Rodeo Drive Stakes (previously known as the Yellow Ribbon) has traditionally been viewed as one of the key preps for the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf. With this year's Breeders' Cup being run at Santa Anita, extra attention will likely be afforded to those runners exiting the Rodeo Drive, given they will own a prep race over the Santa Anita turf course. Of the turf females pre-entered in the BC Filly & Mare Turf, three made their final prep in the Rodeo Drive, Marketing Mix, Nereid, and Stormy Lucy. Marketing Mix figures to garner the majority of buzz from among this trio given her sharp score in the Rodeo Drive and her prior excellent form back East and in Canada. However, an analysis of the previous 13 runnings of the BC Filly & Mare Turf suggests one should approach wagering on Marketing Mix or any of the other Rodeo Drive runners in the BC Filly & Mare Turf with caution.

Skepticism towards the chances of the Rodeo Drive graduates in the BC Filly & Mare Turf is warranted given the anemic performance of other past runners in the 13 previous editions of the BC Filly & Mare Turf. The statistics regarding the ineptitude of Rodeo Drive runners in the BC Filly & Mare Turf is nothing short of staggering. In the 13 previous runnings of the BC Filly & Mare Turf, 24 horses have ran their final prep in the Rodeo Drive. These 24 runners have combined for only one total placing, a 2nd by Banks Hill in the 02' edition at Arlington Park. (The total placings would have been two, but Wait a While, the 08' Rodeo Drive winner, was later disqualified from 3rd and placed last due to a medication violation. A positive that superfecta players should note is that 6 times, a Rodeo Drive runner has finished 4th in the Filly & Mare Turf. What makes the fact that only one Rodeo Drive runner has ever placed in a BC Filly & Mare Turf so significant is that many of these runners were sent off at low odds in the Breeders' Cup. Of the 24 Rodeo Drive runners to have competed in the BC Filly & Mare Turf, half of them went off at 7.50: 1 or lower. More profound, 10 of the 24 were sent off at odds of 5:1 or lower.

That only one Rodeo Drive runner has ever placed in a BC Filly Mare Turf stands in stark contrast to the performance of runners exiting the major East Coast preps, the Flower Bowl and First Lady( run as the Winstar Galaxy from 2000-2005), or those shipping from Europe. The Flower Bowl runners have a 4-4-4-6 record (Win-Place-Show-4th) in the race. The First Lady runners have a 3-2-1-1 record. European shippers have a 5-4-7 record in the 13 runnings of the BC Filly & Mare Turf.

One would expect that the Rodeo Drive runners to have performed better in those Breeders' Cups run over the Santa Anita turf (03', 08', 09'), but this hasn't been the case. Although running right back over the course they just ran over, the 1-2 finishers in the 03' Rodeo Drive could only muster 8th & 11th place efforts in that year's Filly & Mare Turf. Vacare, the 08’ Rodeo Drive runner-up, checked in 4th in the Filly & Mare Turf. (This excludes the previously mentioned DQ of Wait a While) The 1-2 finishers of the ‘09 Rodeo Drive returned to the scene for moderate 4th and 5th place finishes in the Filly & Mare Turf. So much for the theory of needing a prep over the Santa Anita turf course.

All this information begs the question be asked: “Why has the Rodeo Drive been such a poor prep for the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf?” My hypothesis is that the race has been such a poor prep because its inability to draw relatively strong fields. Typically, Rodeo Drive fields are shallow, with at best only a couple truly elite turf distaffers. Structural aspects of the Rodeo Drive like timing in comparison to the BC, course layout or distance (like when the Jockey Club Gold Cup was run at 12 furlongs and produced beaten low priced BC Classic horses such as Slew o' Gold, Vanlandingham, Turkoman, and Easy Goer) have much less to do to account for the poor prep record.

As to why the fields for the Rodeo Drive have been so poor, the main reason is that the local colony of Cali turf distaffers from which these fields have been drawn from the last 13 years have been shallow. The Cali female turf colony has been significantly affected by a general decline in California racing; More specifically, the death, retirement, or decline in top stock of top turf trainers such as Charlie Whittingham, Bobby Frankel, Ron MacAnally, (and to a lesser extent) Richard Mandella and Neil Drysdale. It is significant that the only two horses to ever cross the wire among the top 3 in the BC Filly & Mare Turf from the Rodeo Drive [Banks Hill and Wait a While(before being dq’d)], had shipped in for the Rodeo Drive.

The effect of the weak local female turf colony on the quality of Rodeo Drive fields has compounded by the one structural aspect of the Rodeo Drive that has contributed to weaker fields, purse structure. In comparison to other preps, the race has been losing ground. (Chart below)

The affect of this purse deficit has been a talent drain away from the Rodeo Drive. The already weak pool of local Cali turf females from which the Rodeo Drive primarily draws has not been significantly bolstered by shippers. Instead, what has happened with the Flower Bowl and First Lady offering either equivalent money or more is that some of the few truly elite Cali turf females have bypassed the Rodeo Drive and shipped out for their final BC prep. The two Cali based runners to have won the BC Filly & Mare Turf, Starine (02’) and Intercontinental (05’), prepped in the Flower Bowl and First Lady respectively, while the Cali-based 00’ Filly & Mare runner-up, Tout Charmant, prepped in the First Lady. Furthermore, the Rodeo Drive has been badly outperformed by the Flower Bowl in attracting European stars seeking a North American prep for the Breeders' Cup. With a purse of just $250k and a shallow pool of local turf females, one should expect the Rodeo Drive to continue to have only a marginal impact on the BC Filly & Mare Turf.

The conclusion is simple: Horses that come out of the Rodeo Drive are consistently bet in the BC Filly & Mare Turf, and they consistently have underperformed. The record of Rodeo Drive horses in the Breeders' Cup is nothing short of a disaster. Thus, while Marketing Mix is a deserving top three choice based on traditional handicapping variables, and she certainly looked like a leading contender in winning the Rodeo Drive, at the very least the record of Rodeo Drive runners in past Breeders' Cups should give one pause before placing a wager on her this Friday. However, the past does not imprison the present, and the poor record of the Rodeo Drive as a Breeders' Cup prep does not preclude the possibility that Marketing Mix, Nereid, or Stormy Lucy will run well in the Breeders' Cup. Yet, neither do I think the statistics presented here to be irrelevant or some insignificant anomalies. Ultimately, it is up to the reader to determine how much weight they will attach to these stats.

BC Saturday Selections (Undercard Included)

Breeders' Cup Saturday comes bringing high intrigue, high drama and a high bar to top Friday's wild outcomes. After a solid 4-for-10 yesterday, can this blog keep it up? Let's get right into the action with the first race on the card.

The first race is a entry-level allowance race for females going a one-turn mile. Two horses catch the eye here. Jump Up will be the probable favorite based off a fast maiden win in her debut at Keeneland. She has worked well here at Churchill and her pedigree states that dirt will not be a problem. The other one that catches the eye is Dreamingly. While she has never been on dirt, it doesn't look like it will be a problem. These two look like they will appreciate the one-turn and will be on or near the lead.
Pick: #8 Jump Up - Others to consider: #5 Dreamingly
Confidence Rating: 8.5; 9 that one of two will win

The second is the $65k Dream Supreme Stakes. There is a very vulnerable morning line favorite.in Dancinginherdreams. She has not shown much improvement from her two year old form (which included a win here) and looks to be beatable. Grandacious has a chance to gate to wire, but can pass if needed; Salty Strike is 3-for-4 over the Churchill Downs track; Splendor Town has shown occasionally ability that could win this at a big number.
Pick:  #8 Salty Strike - Others to consider: #1 Grandacious, #9 Splendor Town
Confidence Rating: 8.5; 9.6 that one of the three will win, 10 that Dancinginherdreams will not win.

BC Marathon is the first big race of the day. This blog is just taking a stab in this race, as it has no real opinion. Birdrun looks like he might be able to go gate-to-wire here in this 14 furlong race.
Pick: #1 Birdrun
Confidence Rating: 1, as the scale does not go any lower.

Next up is the Juvenile Turf. Another tough race where contention runs deep. The very tepid selection is Wrote. This son of multiple BC Turf winner High Chapparal has won two of four, with the two wins coming on courses with turns (albeit right-handed). The others this blog would use in multi-race exotics are the undefeated on turf Finale, Bourbon runner-up Coalport and another Euro in Caspar Netscher.
Pick: #5 Wrote - Others to consider: #13 Finale, #6 Coalport, #7 Caspar Netscher.
Confidence Rating: 3.3

The Sprint is another tough race, though this blog is going to take a stand. The pick is Force Freeze. He blew away the competition in first start in the U.S back in July. He valiantly tried to get to fellow runner Giant Ryan  last time out when he just could not get there while running against a speed-favoring track at Belmont. He has two nice works and looks to have first jump on the closers.
Pick: #6 Force Freeze
Confidence Rating: 6.7

The Turf Sprint starts the $3m Ultra Pick 6 with a well-matched full field of 14. The pick is Regally Ready, as he has experience over the course, a solid post, can be on the lead but does not need it. If one wants to look past him, it becomes a wide open affair with many, many options.
Pick: #8 Regally Ready
Confidence Rating: 5.5 (Turf sprints at Churchill Downs is not one of my strengths)

The BC Dirt Mile is a race that has a short history but all of its winners have one thing in common: They all ran their last race at nine furlong. The only member of the field to do that was Tres Borrachos. But his form is very suspect and he will be used only because of the above angle. The pick is Irrefutable. Coming off a good second in the Ancient Title, the "other Baffert" looks to finally get his chance at this extended sprint. With a win over the track earlier in the year, he looks primed for a big effort. The other horse being used is Trappe Shot. The whole year this son of Tapit has been running at six furlongs, and each time this blog played against him. Now he finally stretches out to a distance that allows him to use his track-and-attack skills to better use, he can get the jump on likely favorite Caleb's Posse.
Pick: #6 Irrefutable - Others to consider: #9 Trappe Shot, #4 Tres Borrachos
Confidence Rating: 6.9; 9 that one of these three is the winner.

This blog's thoughts on the Breeders' Cup Turf can summed up with one sentence: "Any European-based horse that gets beat by an American based horse isn't allowed back on the plane to Europe."
Pick: #1 St. Nicholas Abbey (because he is the 1st Euro they will load into the gate) - Others to consider: The other four Euros: #2 Sarafina, #6 Await The Dawn, #7 Sea Moon, #9 Midday
Confidence Rating: 4; 10 that a Euro will win.

The Juvenile is another Classic East-West match-up as Champagne winner Union Rags faces off vs. Norfolk winner Creative Cause. This blog is going to go out on a limb and not pick either or those or Norfolk runner-up and Del Mar Futurity winner Drill. Instead the pick is Champagne runner-up Alpha. Making his first start around two turns is a big key for a horse his trainer said is still learning the game. Along with Dullahan, this is another spread race.
Pick: #9 Alpha - Others to consider: #7 Creative Cause, #2 Dullahan, #4 Drill, #10 Union Rags
Confidence rating: 4, 9.5 that the winner is one of those five listed.

The race that the world cannot wait to see is the Mile, as Goldikova looks to win an unprecedented 4th straight Breeders' Cup Mile. Some say she has lost a step, some doubt whether she can win this, but to play against her is a dangerous proposition. However, this blog will have a different horse as its top pick while using the mare in everything. If she has traffic troubles and just can't find her way to the winner circles, Jeranimo could be the one to take advantage. He ran a monster race in the Oak Tree Mile and is coming blazing. He will be sitting just off of Sidney's Candy, and when that one loses the lead in the stretch, he will have first jump on the come-from-behind horses. At a big price, he is worth a flyer.
Pick: #7 Jeranimo - Others to consider: #1 Goldikova
Confidence rating: 4; 9 that if he doesn't pull the upset, she completes the 4-peat.

So here we are at the main event, the Classic. This blog makes no apologies for being a huge fan of Flat Out. Since the beginning, way back before this blog was even a possibility, way back in late 2008, Flat Out caught the attention of this writer. He was at one point the choice for the Derby. Thought to be another casualty of the Derby trail after he was hurt, he made his comeback off a 20 month layoff with a win in December. After a false start over the winter, he returned with a 2nd, then a flop in the Stephen Foster while stuck on a dying rail. Bouncing back with good performance after good performance, he won his last start to give his trainer the long sought after first Grade 1 win. Now it is his time to reward his connections with a win in the biggest race of the year. The only horses that can stand in the way of this goal is the globe-trotting So You Think and the stubborn front-runner Game On Dude. No one else scares this blog. Not Uncle Mo (too far, poor preparation), not Havre De Grace (too far), not To Honor and Serve (cannot pass, will not get the lead).
Pick: #2 Flat Out
Confidence Rating: 7.8 (So You Think wins if he takes to dirt.)

There you go, all...Wait, there's another race after the Classic? Why? "Traffic Considerations"? Alright. (looks over the PPs, cracks a big smile)

May Day Rose caps off a possible huge day for Bob Baffert by going gate-to-wire in what race caller and the current voice of the Breeders' Cup Trevor Denman " a stylish performance".
Pick: #9 May Day Rose
Confidence rating: 9.6

Good luck folks. Go Flat Out!

A Few Random BC Post-Draw Thoughts

A few random BC post-draw thoughts:

• Unless Tres Borrachos pulls off a major upset, this year's Dirt Mile winner will be the first to NOT have prepped in a nine furlong race in their previous start.
• Bob Baffert will have 40% of his entrants breaking from post position number one, including three of the four dirt Sprint races, with only Secret Circle avoiding the rail in the sprints.
• As expected, the U.S-based runners in the BC Turf are the four longest shots on the morning line. The division has fallen hard this year.
• Medaglia DAmour has a real chance to blow up the tote in the Ladies' Classic.
• Jackson Bend going in the Sprint instead of the Dirt Mile might have cost him a chance at the Eclipse award for Champion Sprinter. If 6 furlongs proves to be too short and someone like Caleb's Posse or The Factor wins the Dirt Mile, they could snatch the award away from him.
• Loved the lively debate on Twitter today about why Uncle Mo will be the post-time favorite in the Classic.
• Honestly, what was Mike Battaglia thinking when he made up the morning line for the Juvenile Fillies Turf? 134.76% is never an acceptable total for a set of odds, not even with the 20-runner Kentucky Derby!

Here are Battaglia's morning line totals for each Breeders' Cup race:

Santa Anita Starts the Fall Meet With A "Maddy"-ing Tough Stakes

With the change in the season to fall, the Southern California circuit returns to the Great Race Place at the foot of the San Gabriel Mountains. This year marks the first time in 43 years that the fall racing is not run by the Oak Tree Racing Association. Santa Anita has taken the dates from them after evicting them two years ago. Opening weekend will offer seven graded stakes spread over the three days, including five grade ones. The traditional commemorative stein given away has been replaced on the calendar by an ever popular food truck festival in the infield. With all of the changes about, the stakes schedule starts off in the same way it had in recent years, with a turf sprint. The Grade 3 race figures to produce multiple starters for the Breeders' Cup. Here is some thoughts about the first stake of the Santa Anita Fall meet.

The opening day feature is the Grade 3 Senator Ken Maddy Stakes for fillies and mares three year old and up going about six and a half furlongs down the hillside turf course. The defending champion is back in Unzip Me. This Cal-bred daughter of City Zip returns to defend her crown off a fine win at Del Mar. She is five for seven (with a second) down the hill in her career. She hopes to use this race as a springboard to the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint like last year, where she finished third. Her regular jockey Rafael Bejarano will be in the irons. While breaking from the inside posts is normally not ideal, the small field makes it less likely to have its normal negative effect.

The likely second choice figures to be blog favorite Tanda (right). This daughter of Sweetsouthernsaint finally broke her five-race losing streak in the Grade 3 Rancho Bernardo Handicap last time out, getting her first win of 2011. She moved into the Mike Mitchell barn prior to the win, and her new regular rider is Joe Talamo. It pained this blog to miss the win, but glad she made it to winner's circle.She will break to the outside of Unzip Me, hoping to get a nice stalking trip off of her. She has worked well since the win, finishing off her preparations with a bullet 5 furlong drill across town. She has a 4-2-1-0 record lifetime over this unique course. Her goal this year is the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint on the main track at seven furlongs. Under the allowance conditions of this race, she gives three lbs. to Unzip Me.

The other entrants are Separate Forest, who beat the top two back in April in the Grade 3 Las Cienagas; Broken Forest & Givine, who have traded decisions with each other and Separate Forest (All 3 finished behind Unzip Me in the Daisycutter last time out); and Waveline.

This race is the first of many Breeders' Cup preps at Santa Anita the next two weekends. This season is filled with hope from all the divisions. Who will go on to glory? Can Tanda avenge her loss from April? Will Unzip Me continue her winning ways all the way to Louisville? We shall see. Good luck everybody!

A Tiger Defending His Crown

As the second week of "where the turf meets the surf" rolls on, the Grade 1 Bing Crosby Stakes is the big race of the weekend. This Sunday at Del Mar brings together of a field of seven sprinters, including the defending champ Smiling Tiger. He looks to hold off several challengers to his throne, including the horse who defeated him back in January, Euroears. This race could end up having major end-of-the-year award ramifications. With the lack of star power in the handicap and three year old male divisions, Smiling Tiger could be the first horse who is exclusively a sprinter in a long time (maybe ever) to have a chance at Older Male and Horse of The Year honors if he runs the table. Let's break down this group, starting with the favorite and defending champ.

Smiling Tiger (right) Comes off a huge win in the Grade 1 Triple Bend Handicap at Hollywood Park last month. He bounced back from a trouble-filled 6th in the Churchill Downs Handicap, which is his only off the board finish in his career. He returns to the site of his first graded stakes win of his career last year, which occurred in this race. His win last year was the earliest win by a three year old versus older horses in graded stakes competition. He was the only three year old to beat older horses multiple times in graded stakes competition. He has the rail draw, which he is winless from in his career. This race is being run under stakes conditions, which means that he is giving at most four lbs. to his competitors. The lack of weight difference plus his consistency and gameness all lead to him defending his title.

The horse who defeated him earlier this year at Santa Anita is Euroears. This son of Langfuhr has not raced since finishing 2nd in the Dubai Golden Shaheen in March, finishing a solid second to top international sprinter Rocket Man. Euroears has worked in typical swift Baffert fashion coming off the layoff, with several bullets in tow. His jockey for the last few mounts Mike Smith chooses to stay with Amazombie, so top local jock Rafael Bejarano will take over the mount. His pedigree is not great for the Del Mar Poly, with his sire's runners having only win out of nineteen tries. With his need-the-lead style he may have some trouble getting separation from the other speed, especially Smiling Tiger.

Amazombie finished 3rd in Triple Bend behind Smiling Tiger with no apparent excuse. He's had some nice easy works since that race, with his last two coming over the track. It is possible that he could just being wearing down a little, with this being his 7th start this year and him running every four weeks like clockwork since last October. Mike Smith chooses him over Euroears. His pedigree is solid for his initial try over the Del Mar Poly, with both sire and damsire having good numbers.

The others in the field are Grade 1 winner Kinsale King, who was last seen being a late scratch in Dubai; Grade 2 winner Coffee Boy, who makes his first stakes start for his new trainer Mike Mitchell; and allowance runners Carbonite who makes his first career stakes start and Color of Courage, who followed two strong allowance wins with a poor 5th in the Triple Bend.

So there are some thoughts on the Bing Crosby. Can Smiling Tiger defend his crown, avenging his defeat to Euroears? Can Amazombie get that Grade 1 win, continuing his fairytale run for his connections? Will Kinsale King regain his past form and rise to glory? We shall see. Good luck everybody!

Presenting the 2011 Breeders' Cup Champion - William's Kitten

Before this blog came into existence in the spring of 2010, a bold prediction was made on the TVG Community about the 2010 Classic. In January of 2010, It was proclaimed by yours truly that Blame would win the Classic, with Zenyatta finishing underneath in the exotics. As it later panned out, I was right. Blame won, and the only horse among those who I listed to put underneath (Zenyatta) who made the race ran second. This blog thought about putting together a list of wild prophecies to try to match or surpass the success of last year. Instead, it was decided that only one claim would be made, and it would involve a horse who this blog has followed since his win back in the summer of 2009. The prediction is this: William's Kitten will win the 2011 Breeders' Cup Classic.

Who?

A few of you may know who he is, but for those who do not, let me introduce him. William's Kitten is son of multiple Grade 1 winning sire Kitten's Joy out of the Menifee mare Blush. He has run 8 times, with 2 wins, a second and a third while being trained by Michael Maker. He was bred by his owners, Ken and Sarah Ramsey, who stands his sire at stud. He is multiple graded stakes placed, with a second (behind eventual 2010 Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver) in the 2009 Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club and a third in the 2010 Grade 3 Holy Bull S. His most significant win to date was in the 2009 Sunday Silence S. at Louisiana Downs (below), where he rushed from well off the pace to an easy victory. (below)


This win was the race that caught my eye and formed the crush. I knew at that very point that he would be my Derby horse. After a couple of so-so efforts in the Grey Stakes and the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (in which I saw him in person), he went to the KJC to run a distant second to Super Saver, who ran away and hid that day. He started 2010 with his race in the Holy Bull, and looked to be going to bigger and better things. Unfortunately, he wretched an ankle in a subsequent workout. He will be sidelined for over a year by the time he makes his next start...

... which is today (1/23) in the 9th race at Gulfstream Park going a mile on the dirt. He has been working well for the return, but he does have a few gaps in his workout tab. He looks to be in tough though, since the race also marks the return of Grade 2 Louisiana Derby winner Mission Impazible. If nothing else, this will serve as a good prep race for wherever the connections decide to run him. Knowing the connections (based on their previous decisions), if William pans out like they & I hope he does, the mid-season goal is probably the Stephen Foster Handicap at Churchill Downs. Then, hopefully a fall campaign that will set him up for a winning rally from the back of the pack in the Breeders' Cup Classic come November.

So there you have it. A bold prediction that requires a big leap of faith to see it possibly happen. I could be horribly wrong, and he may just not pan out as an older horse. But isn't it more fun to take a chance on a flier and get in on the ground floor, rather then have to scramble for room on the bandwagon come November? We shall see what he does. Good luck everybody.

I was SO right. Yet why do i feel SO wrong?

Let's get the bragging out of the way. I was right about the Breeders' Cup Classic. WAY right. Blame won, like I have been preaching from the mountaintops the entire year. He beat Zenyatta in a thrilling photo, just as I predicted on the previous blog post. Lookin at Lucky finished off the board (just barely), as I have repeatedly said on Twitter. I should be on the top of the world, celebrating my predictions.

Yet I am not.

I know I watched from Hollywood Park what may end being the most emotional, gut-wrenching, heart-stopping race of my life. The only two horses who have ever impelled and inspired me to go out of my comfort zone of "the greater Los Angeles area" to see them run (whether it be in San Diego or New York). The two horses who a large piece of my heart, who I would become nothing more than a shell of a man if something happened to them. Those two horses ended facing one another, and I chose sides, somehow being able to keep my emotions in check for one brief moment of clarity. Yet I hoped if I had to be wrong, I was wrong just a little. But I was right. I should be throwing money around like it was going out of style.

Yet I am not.

Why? That is for another blog. But the part that I will mention is that rumors of Blame's demise via a quarter crack was the final straw that broke my already tenuous hold on sane reasoning, caused from the combination of life, Breeders' Cup and school all asking for my time. All of that lead me not to bet, but to just watch as a spectator. That I did, wearing my Blame shirt, my Blue TVG hat and my gray shorts, in fall contrast to the sea of pink and green signifying Zenyatta's fans. I knew I was one of the few who was going against the queen. After Blame successfully usurp the BC Classic throne away from the queen, I gave a couple of fist pumps, and a couple of gloating tweets about my prognostication. But that was all I could muster before an onrush of mixed emotion enveloped me. I should be happy that I was able to at least put into words my happiness over being right, in that moment.

Yet I am not.

I had to wait several days to write this post, to even try to understand and control my thoughts into something workable for the printed page. My mind was a swirl of happiness and sadness and excitement and depression, confusing me in a such a way that it took this long to fall back into at least some sense of normalcy. This post is more or less an odd of way saying thank you to both Blame and Zenyatta, as they mean so much to me that they made me do, see, feel things that I probably would not have done. I should be happy in how much they have, indirectly as it may seems, helped me turn into a better person.

Yet I am not.

Zenyatta was the first horse in a long time that I fell hard for on more than a paper level. From witnessing her maiden win live, to leaving an ER to see her El Encino win, to helping me understand the game is more than the gambling aspect (via her 2009 BC Classic win). That win made me realize that this game was more than about the big score, the life-changing payoff, the fact that ever time you were cashing a ticket it means you defeat all of those other people, it was about the horses. Her win was a "game-changer", so to speak. So to cheer more for someone else than her hurt me more than a little. But the one who I cheered for was more than a passing fancy. So I should be happy that she ran a huge race, yet did not win.

Yet I am not.

Blame was the horse who piqued my interest in a defeat of all things. His Super Derby second caught my eye, when I all I was watching the race for was to see how the track was playing after William's Kitten snapped my attention to the TV with his win earlier on the card. I love horses who don't give in, even if they are beat. His win in the Fayette validated my initial thought on him, and the Clark victory sealed in the love. The Blame Facebook page followed in the spring, when the time drew near for his first race of the season. I tried not once, not twice, but three times to see him in person, but each time the plans fell through. Finally this blog decided that enough is enough, and made the fateful trip to Belmont. Seeing Blame in person was worth the wait, even if this blog did not get a picture of him. But the trip ended being up so much more than just the horse, it was about the people, the experiences, the change. He made me move myself to a better place personally, socially, spiritually. They both did. So I should be happy that they both ran a huge race, and ran one-two, well clear of the others.

Yet I am not.

My heart, my mind, my entire being is filled with happiness over being right in the Classic, that the fact that ran their best and that they both came back safe from the race. My heart, my mind, my entire being is also filled with sadness over their retirement, their being no chance of a rematch and that they both will never be on a track again. The joy and pain of having the two horses that occupy a place in a person's heart going against each other in combat, with only one of them being able to declare victory on the day, is a feeling that many will never experience. But I would rather suffered through all of the agony and the ecstasy of the ride than never have experienced any of it. The change in my life brought upon these two is unquantifiable. Many would be ashamed by this post, and how i have claimed ownership over two things that I have nothing more than an emotional attachment to them.

Yet I am not.

Breeders' Cup Classic

"Gates closed and they're all set for the five million Breeders' Cup Classic..... and away they go, Pleasant Prince off a bit slow.

First Dude goes right to the lead, Haynesfield broke well and moving towards the front, Quality Road taking a good position down on the rail. The Japanese invader Espoir City on the outside of that along with Etched. Behind that is Musket Man, two lengths further back to Blame. Two more lengths back to Lookin at Lucky caught three-wide, with Fly Down and Paddy O'Prado inside of him. Then Pleasant Prince and finally Zenyatta is her customary last, 7 lengths back early as the past the Churchill Downs grandstand first time around...

(opening quarter 23:67)

First Dude out on the lead, not winging, but not crawling either. Espoir City tugging his way to be second. Quality Road sitting a length and half back down at the rail, with Etched and Haynesfield on his outside. Two lengths back to Musket Man and another one to Blame. Three more to the champion two year-old Lookin at Lucky and Fly Down, Paddy O'Prado behind him. Three more to Pleasant Prince and last is still Zenyatta, Zenyatta is still dead last early...

(half-mile 47:88)

First Dude is joined by Espoir City on the front end, with Quality Road getting a perfect trip down the backside in third, a length and a half back. Etched and Haynesfield are outside of him, with Musket Man four lengths back. Blame and Garrett Gomez is moving up on the inside getting closer to that leading group. The three-year old trio of Fly Down, Paddy O'Prado and Lookin at Lucky sitting 7 lengths back, Pleasant Prince and Zenyatta last, biding her time to make her run at destiny...

(3/4 in 1:11:77)

As they reach the end of the backstretch, First Dude is still on the lead, Espoir City is struggling to keep up in second. Quality Road waiting for room down at the rail. Haynesfield, Etched, Musket Man all poised to strike. Blame just behind them, with Lookin at Lucky launching a five-wide move, Fly Down, Paddy and Zenyatta is starting to uncoil her patented charge. Mike Smith looks for a path...

(1 Mile in 1:35:67)

They reach the top of the lead and suddenly the whole picture changes. Quality Road is in front, Etched and Musket Man on his outside, with Zenyatta swinging well wide. Blame looking for room at the rail and he found it! He burst to the lead, Zenyatta is rolling home on the outside, and she has dead aim on Blame! She is gaining on him, but Blame is fighting on. Zenyatta is 1/2 length back with 70 yards to go. Blame is all heart on the rail, Zenyatta is a head, a neck, she's gaining on him, they hit the wire...

and Blame has pulled the plug on the pursuit for perfection. He holds off Zenyatta by a nose. Etched, Fly Down and Musket Man three across the track for third, then back to Quality Road, Paddy O'Prado, Haynesfield, Lookin at Lucky at Lucky who didn't fire today, Espoir City, First Dude and Pleasant Prince was last."

Breeders' Cup Saturday

The day is here. Day 2 of the Breeders' Cup brings the big show to town, with Zenyatta attempting to end her career a perfect 20-for-20. Goldikova attempts to become the first horse ever to win the same race three times, attempting the three-peat in the Mile. With a flurry of competitive fields, this day will have plenty of chances for a great payoff. Let's dive right in with the first Breeders' Cup race, the Juvenile Turf.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf - Grade 2 - 1 Mile - (turf)
The first BC race of the day brings together a evenly match field of thirteen. This blog does not have a great feel for this race at all. The very lukewarm selection is #9 Soldat. Last time out, he finished second as the favorite in the Grade 3 Pilgrim Stakes over a yielding Belmont turf course. Two good works in the interim and the feeling that he will improve with the return to a complete two turns. Some large prices on the morning line that catch the eye are #11 Rough Sailing and #12 Humble and Hungry. Rough Sailing returns to the turf after a failed attempt routing on the Poly in the Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland. The cut-back and the return ti turf interests this blog, along with the two steady works. With a pedigree that is very strong for the grass, he may sneak into the exotics. Humble and Hungry is interesting because his pedigree says two turns are not a problem and the presence of jockey Olivier Peslier, the rider of Goldikova, is a bit of surprise, since H&H is making his first start against winners. The best of the Euros appears to be #5 Master of Hounds. He has experience around a turn, and should be fine at the distance.

Selections:
Soldat
Master of Hounds
Rough Sailing / Humble and Hungry (trifecta bombs)

Breeders' Cup Sprint - Grade 1 - 6 Furlongs
This field of 12 comes in without a clear favorite, as the early and dominant leader Majesticperfection was lost to injury in September. This group has a wide variety of running styles.for everyone to have their favorite style represented. The 3-1 morning line favorite is #2 Girolamo. This son of A.P. Indy, who won the Grade 1 Vosburgh last out, is trying to give his sire a win at the shortest dirt race (6 furlongs) after winning the longest race, the Marathon (1m & 3/4) yesterday. He comes in third off the layoff and has worked well in the interim, but he will bet tossed from the win spot because he violates the "Three Furlong Rule", a cardinal sin for this blog. The choice is #7 Kinsale King. This son of Yankee Victor runs on the dirt for the first time, but did have a workout over it at the BIG Fresno Fair a few weeks back. Earlier this year, he won the Palos Verdes Handicap at Santa Anita, which he parlayed into a win in the Group 1 Dubai Golden Shaheen. He went abroad to the UK for two prestigious grass races. Off since July, he comes in fresh and may float higher than his 8-1 morning line. #1 Big Drama is an ultra-game horse has not run since finishing second to a contender in the BC Dirt Mile Here Comes Ben. The cutback to 6 furlongs can only do good and the steady work pattern adds to the appeal. #5 Smiling Tiger has earned this blog's respect by being one of the few three year olds in the country to beat older, doing so twice in his last three starts. He also is making his first start on dirt, and popped a bullet work here last week. This blog is taking a stand against #3 Wise Dan, who seems to have picked up some "steam" this week, but is making only his 5th career start.

Selections:
Kinsale King
Big Drama
Smiling Tiger /Riley Tucker

Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint - Grade 2 - 5 furlongs - (turf)
This race was quite literally impossible to figure out for this blog. The horse who we had hoped to pin our hopes on, #1 Chamberlain Bridge, popped an abscess on his foot last week and missed his last work. That does not bode well for him in this race, and he no longer the pick. Instead of offering analysis, this blog will just point out a longshot in #13 Tropic Storm. The reason we point out this horse is that the cutback in distance and the abundance of speed in the field lead this blog to believe that if he can get over into a decent spot down the backstretch, he may be able to hang on for a share. The "if you put a gun to my head" selection is #9 Rose Catherine, because of her undefeated record at the distance.

Live Horses: (not enough conviction to make them selections)
Rose Catherine, Tropic Storm, Silver Timber, Unzip Me, Bridgetown

Breeders' Cup Juvenile - Grade 1 - 1m & 1/16th
This race has the two big names from the east coast who have gathered all the headlines, #2 Boys at Tosconova and #7 Uncle Mo. These two have both put in breathtaking efforts in the most recent starts and deserve to be the first two choices in the betting. Both stretch out to two turns for the first time today, but neither should have a problem with the distance. Uncle Mo is a pure speedball, and seeing how he reacts to pace pressure is the main question with him. 'Boys' must overcome a two month layoff, but has actually passed a horse, a rare thing in this field. These two will hopefully cause the price on #10 Jaycito to climb higher than the 8-1 morning line. This son of Victory Gallop has already won going two turns (in the Norfolk), but must overcome the 1 for 18 record on the board for horses coming out of the Norfolk running in the BC Juvenile when it is held at Churchill Downs. These three are the only ones this blog feels can win.

Selections:
Jaycito
Uncle Mo
Boys at Tosconova

Breeders' Cup Mile - Grade 1 - One Mile - (turf)
The first of the two horses attempting to win their third Breeders' Cup race is the deserving favorite and the wonderful mare #10 Goldikova. She comes in fine fashion, winning the Grade 1 Prix de la Foret against males at Longchamp. She is ultra game and there is no rela chink in her armor, Unless something unforeseen happens, she looks like a very strong candidate to make history. This blog;s crazy longshot is #8 Get Stormy. If for some reason the mare does not fire, Get Stormy looks to get a perfect trip behind speedball #9 Sidney's Candy. Whether he is good enough is completely other story, but at a healthy number, he is worth a shot.

Selections:
Goldikova
Paco Boy (who has been chasing Goldi all summer)
Get Stormy

Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile - Grade 1 - one mile
This race took a hit when probable post time favorite #8 Crown of Thorns went down with an injury on Friday. Favoritism will either fall to #5 Here Comes Ben or #6 Gayego. This blog is going to take a chance with the horse just to their outside, #7 Thiskyhasnolimit. "This" has been running effectively at two turns, but has always stuck this blog as a one-turn miler. The only other time h did this, he won the Grade 3 Iroquois on this very track. He has worked nicely in the interim and will probably go off at or near the 10-1 morning line. The morning line favorite #10 Morning Line is a horrible favorite, with only a single Grade 2 to his name. He appears to be a two-turn horse who cannot pass, and will be up against it.

Selections:
Thiskyhasnolimit
Gayego
Here Comes Ben

Breeders' Cup Turf - Grade 1 - 1m & 1/2 (turf)
The big question surround this relatively compact field of 8 is whether or not 2010 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe winner #6 Workforce will run or not. To this blog, it does not matter, as the selection either way is #7 Behkabad. He has run will over a surface with less give in it than hat the connections of Workforce are looking for and was well-bet in the Arc, losing by only 4 lengths with a spot of trouble. The #1 Champ Pegasus is interesting because he is the only on in the field who no one knows how truly good he is, since this is first trip outside of California. He should be on or near the lead, and this may give him a fighting chance with the lack of early speed signed on.

Selections:
Bekhabad
Workforce
Champ Pegasus

That leaves the Classic. But if you are a follower of this blog, you know exactly who is the selection, and who the one to fear is. (Hint, it's a she). But forhow I explain it, you will have to find out in my next post, which will be put up later this BC Saturday Morning. Good luck everybody!

Breeders' Cup Friday Thoughts

Breeders’ Cup Friday is the first day of the World Championships. Today is mostly devoted for the ladies, with the five championship races for the females, but the Cup races will start off with the Marathon. There are other races on the undercard, but this blog will mention only the one precedent the Breeders’ Cup races, the Grade 3 Ack Ack Handicap, then delve into the BC races. This blog has done well on the undercard, and cannot resist pointing out a horse that could be a future star in the making. We shall start with that race.

(Don’t forget to enter the “Off The Board” contest run by this blog. So much fun for chucking a low-odds horse it shouldn’t be legal!)

Ack Ack Handicap – Grade 3 – 1m & 1/16th
This race has some upcoming three year-olds and a couple of wily veterans. The defending champion returns in this race in #4 Demarcation, although the distance was only a mile last year. He ran alright last time out, and picks up jockey Calvin Borel. He appears to have a tough task ahead of him versus three improving three-year olds. The morning line favorite, and the selection for this blog, is #1 Apart. This son of Flatter has been training in the morning with the best horse in the Al Stall Jr. barn, Blame, who is the 2nd choice in the Breeders’ Cup Classic tomorrow. He has been holding his own in the morning and is ready for his first race against older. #2 Colizeo won last out over #6 Jackson Bend, who was returning off the layoff. Colizeo likes this track, having won 2 of 3 races at Churchill Downs. He drew off to a nice win on that day, and should be on the lead. Jackson Bend should stalk him. Both have worked well in the interim. The other two in the field are the other two elder statesmen in the race, #2 Stream Cat and #3 Silver Edition. Stream Cat comes in off a year layoff and this has all the makings of a prep race for him. Silver Edition stretches out for the first time in a while, and looks to be overmatched.

Selections: Apart / Colizeo / Jackson Bend (maybe a straight trifecta to maximize value?)

Now we hit the Breeders’ Cup races. First up is the Marathon, going a mile and three-quarters on the main track.

Breeders’ Cup Marathon – Grade 3 – 1m & ¾
The morning line favorite is the Grade 1 winning #7 Awesome Gem. This gelded son of Awesome Again always comes with the same late kick no matter that distance, and should not be affected by the increase in distance. The one they will have to catch is #6 Gabriel’s Hill. He appears to be lone speed, and will take them as far as he can go. His pedigree states that he should be fine at the distance, and several close finishes at shorter distances. The buzz horse has been #2 Prince Will I Am, who is the co-2nd choice on the morning line at 4-1. He rallies from well back in the pack, and his pedigree just begs for as much distance as you can give it. The blog’s choice is a 15-1 longshot named #11 Precision Break. This son of Silver Deputy has been racing in Europe over the turf and synthetic in races no shorter than a mile and a half recently, and has plenty of stamina built in. He races on dirt for the first time on Friday, but has an American dirt pedigree on both sides. He may not have the class as some of the field, but he is worth a shot at 15-1.

Selections:
Precision Break (win/place bet)
Prince Will I Am
Gabriel’s Hill

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf – Grade 2 – 1m (turf)

This field of 14 is filled with all types of horses, and this group proved to be quite a handful to come up with a selection. I ended up on #13 Together. She is a European invader who last time out finished third in a field of 20, so the large field will not be a factor. That race was a straightaway race, and her previous races shows that she may prefer racing around a turn. While she goes two turns for the first time, she should not have a problem with the distance. The favorite is #7 Winter Memories. This daughter of international known turf sire El Prado won the Grade 3 Miss Grillo Stakes last out at Belmont in fine fashion, with a burst she blew by the field and caught the eye of this blogger. She figures to be a short price favorite to remain undefeated, and one has to worry whether she will get encounter traffic problems. #11 More Than Real comes in off a 2nd place finish in the Grade 3 Natalma at Woodbine, behind the #10 New Normal, but that race was around one turn. In her maiden win, More Than Real won a two-turn race at Saratoga rather nicely. She could spice up the exotics at 10-1. While I like Together, this race looks like a good spot to spread in the multi-race wagers if you think the favorites are vulnerable.

Selections:
Together
Winter Memories
More Than Real

Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint – Grade 1 – 7 furlongs
The first Grade 1 on the day is the Filly & Mare Sprint. This race has a full field of 14, and anyone of about 9 horses has a chance at winning this race. There are many speed types, a good amount of stalkers, and a few closers mixed in. The 7 furlongs distance is a specialist distance, and some may struggle to get that final furlong. The morning line favorite is #13 Rightly So, who hopes to continue her lifetime streak of never finishing off the board. She won the Grade 1 Ballerina last time out at Saratoga. She is a true speedball, and look to take the field wire to wire. However, her last win was over a track that was very speed-favoring, and will certainly find company on the front end. The defending champion is #4 Informed Decision. She won this race over a synthetic surface, in which is 10-12 lifetime. With the race on dirt, where she has run well, but not always her best, she looks to be vulnerable at short odds. The selection is #1 My Jen. This rapidly improving 3 year-old filly took the Grade 3 Gallant Bloom over #2 Sara Louise and #6 Moontune Missy. She relaxed a bit further off the pace than normal, and just got up. She should appreciate the extra 1/16th of a mile. At 15-1 morning line, I’m going to take chance at blowing up the toteboard. Sara Louise is another who I would use in the pick 3s & 4s, as that race was her first since November of 2009. #8 Switch and #9 Sweet August Moon ship in from Southern California, and look to maybe have a chance to add some value in the trifecta.

Selections:
My Jen (WP bet)
Sara Louise
Rightly So

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies – Grade 1 – 1m & 1/16th
Another tough race on this Friday card, as an evenly matched group of 12 is entered. #1 Indian Gracey has been scratched due to heat in her hoof. The favorite is #8 A Z Warrior. Daughter of freshman sire Bernardini won her first race on dirt in style when capturing the Grade 1 Frizette at Belmont. The extra 1/16th of a mile could prove to be her undoing, but she has at least shown the ability to rate. The selection is #9 Delightful Mary. This daughter of Limehouse, who has some of his greatest victories over this very Churchill Downs track, will be running on the dirt for the first time. Losing as the favorite last time out to a loose on the lead leader, she projects to be sitting about 4th or 5th going down the backstretch. Hopefully she will kick on in the stretch. Another trying dirt for the first time is #12 Tell a Kelly. This daughter of Tapit made her two-turn debut last out when finishing second to Rigoletta in the Oak Leaf. She went straight to Churchill after the race and has put together three steady drills over the surface. With Calvin Borel as her jockey, you cannot discount her at all. Also of interest is the foreign invader #2 Theyskens’ Theory, who is also sired by Bernardini, and has a classic American distance dirt pedigree. A definite spread race. Anyone with a strong opinion in here should be handsomely rewarded if correct.

Selections:
Delightful Mary
Tell a Kelly
Theyskens’ Theory

Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf – Grade 1 – 1m & 3/8 – (turf)
This field is filled with international flair, as 5 nations have a chance at claiming the title. The favorite and defending champion is #7 Midday. This daughter of Oasis Dream has won her last three races this year, and looks like a strong candidate to defend her crown. She has already won at a distance further than this, and may be the shortest favorite the entire weekend. #2 Red Desire ran an okay 3rd last out in the Grade 1 Flower Bowl last out, and looks to be the one with the best chance of upsetting the favorite. She has better acclimated to the states, and should not have a problem with the distance. The best local hope is either #2 Éclair De Lune (SoCal via Germany) or #6 Harmonious.

Selections:
Red Desire
Midday
Harmonious / Éclair De Lune (box the top 2 in an exacta. Play those over the other two in a trifecta)

Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic – Grade 1 – 1m & 1/8
For a more detail analysis, visit the Thorofan Handicapper’s Corner, where I handicapped this race. But any of you who read this blog know that I have said since April that #1 Life At Ten would win this race, and here win in the Beldame certified she will be tough to beat. I also think that all the travel Blind Luck this year catches up to her, and she finishes off the board.

Selections:
Life At Ten
Malibu Prayer/Unrivaled Belle/Acoma/Acting Happy (key Life at Ten on top; put these four underneath in the exacta and trifecta).

There is the rundown for Friday’s Breeders’ Cup races. Tomorrow brings thought on Saturday’s card. Until then, good capping and great betting!

Breeders' Cup Post Position & Morning Line Thoughts

This post will cover some of my thoughts about the post positions and morning line for the BC, plus a tentative schedule of my thoughts on the BC races. Let's talk about the latter first. Tentatively, this blog will share its thoughts on the first day of races on tomorrow, with thoughts on Saturday (except the Classic) on Thursday morning. On Thursday night (9 PM ET), this blog's thoughts on the Classic will be revealed.

Now onto thoughts on today's post position draws:

• Lookin at Lucky still can't catch a break, as he ended up drawing the outside post in the Classic. He will break from the #12 hole, and will hopefully not get parked wide on both turns.
• Others who shall be at low odds who drew poorly are Harve De Grace in the Ladies' Classic, Pluck in the Juvenile Turf, Tell A Kelly in the Juvenile Fillies and Together in the Juvenile Fillies Turf.
• Some attractive prices on the morning line are Red Desire at 8-1 in the Filly & Mare Turf, Jaycito at 8-1 in the Juvenile and the entire field in the Filly and Mare Sprint except the favorites of Rightly So and Informed Decision.
• Morning Line going in the Dirt Mile and not the Classic caught many off guard, but that was nowhere near the shock of when he was installed as the favorite in the race. The odds will prove to be dramatically different come post time for the race, with Crown of Thorns, Vineyard Haven and Here Comes Ben via for favoritism

This blog invites you to enter the "Off The Board" contest, where one can take a stand against low odds horses in a unique format that proves to be challenging yet fun. Don't think Lucky will hit the board? Put it on there!

A Few Odds and Ends - BC Style

With the announcement of pre-entries tomorrow for the Breeders' Cup, the horse racing nation waits with bated breath for them to come out. This blog just has a few thoughts to say before we start to dive into the rich, meaty juiciness that is the Breeders' Cup past performances.

• The sale for Breeders' Cup Mile-bound Sidney's Candy still has not been finalized. One wonders what is holding it up, and whether the Craigs will still be the owners come post time.
• The decision to put the Turf Sprint as the start of the Pick 6 still boggles the mind. Why would the powers that be put a race that looks to be easier to solve than the Dirt Mile is beyond me. Maybe this was an appeasement to those who prefer turf, now that the Pick 6 is once again evenly split between main track races and grass races.
• How is possible that Calvin Borel aka Calvin Bo-rail aka Saint Calvin of Churchill still has not been publicly announced on a horse for the Classic? It is inconceivable to consider that he would not have a mount in the Classic, let alone every single dirt race the entire weekend.
• This blog wonders what the track will be like, since there is no precipitation predicted to fall between now and the Breeders' Cup in Louisville. Will the track be a repeat of 2000, when it was veritable parking lot? Or maybe 2006, when the rail was a great place to be?
• If you would like the chime on what you think the morning line would be for the Classic, post it here and join in with the others below.

Del Mar Futurity - Will the Del Mar meet end with Gusto?

Before we begin, i need to apologize for my lack of posts. I had a computer issue that left me without one from Travers Day up until this last weekend. I apologize and will attempt to make it up to you over the coming weeks.

Wednesday is closing day at Del Mar. The traditional closing day feature is the 63rd running of the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity, run at 7 furlongs. This race has had some great winners such as Silver Charm, Bertrando and Best Pal. Recent victors are Stevie Wonderboy and Lookin at Lucky. Four of the last six winners (Declan's Moon, Stevie Wonderboy, Midshipman, Lookin at Lucky) have gone one to win the Eclipse Award for two year old male. Two of those also won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (Stevie Wonderboy, Midshipman). Who will join the historic list of winners? Here is the field:

#1 Jaycito M Garcia 12/1
#2 Riveting Reason A Solis 12/1
#3 McKenzies Way D Flores 8/1
#4 J P's Gusto P Valenzuela 5/2
#5 Just Imagine M Pedroza 20/1
#6 Major Art (GB) M Smith 8/1
#7 Western Mood J Rosario 7/2
#8 Indian Winter R Bejarano 5/1
#9 Comma to the Top C Nakatani 20/1
#10 Road Ready V Espinoza 8/1
#11 Gahnzo Bob A Quinonez 30/1

The morning line favorite is #4 J P's Gusto. This son of Successful Appeal has swept the 2yo stakes in Southern California so far and looks to continue the trend with a victory. He has 3 steady works in the interim. He is rather tractable, as he has come from just off the pace, but can assert himself on the lead, as he did last time out in the Grade 2 Best Pal. Three steady works, including the last one in a crisp 4f work in 46 & 4/5, shows that he is still in top form. But he is not the selection.

The selection is #7 Western Mood. This son of West Acre finished a so-so third last time out in the Best Pal. This blog admits to picking Western Mood the last two times against J P's Gusto. J P was simply the better horse both times, but this is the best time to turn the tables. Too close to the pace last time out, he will hopefully be given a more patient ride this time by jockey Joel Rosario. He totes 3 nice works, including a smart 5 furlong work last time out in 1:00 & 3/5. He will have no problem with the distance, and should get a nice trip with all of the potential front end horses signed up for the race.

The most interesting horse in this race to this blog is the British invader, #6 Major Art. This British-born son of Compton Place finished off the board in his most recent start 24 days ago in the listed stake Prix Francois Boutin at Deauville in France going 7 furlongs over the soft going. He previously finished 3rd in a Grade 3 at Goodwood in England. This is his first start over a synthetic track. He has been supplemented into this race by his new connections for his first start in the U.S. and for trainer Eric Kruljac. Major Art will be ridden by jockey Mike Smith, who has good numbers when riding for Kruljac. Will he take advantage of the classic "fresh off the plane" angle to score the upset?

Others to consider are: #8 Indian Water who won smartly 1st time out for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. (Also the trainer of #7) He will have the services of leading rider Rafael Bejarano and has two maintenance works; #1 Jaycito who lead most of the way in his debut until the #8 caught him in the final strides. He has experience with the rail and should be winging from the inside; and #3 McKenzies Way, who blasted a field of maidens last out gate-to-wire.

This should be a great race to determine the current top 2yo on the west coast. Will the chalk prevail once again? Will revenge be exacted instead? Will a new shooter shock the world? We shall see what happens as this appears to be a smashing renewal of the Del Mar Futurity. Hopefully a future star will announce his presence to the world with a scintillating performance.

Blame Gets Through the Road Block

Blame is the winner of the 2010 Grade 1 Whitney Handicap.

This blog hoped that this post would begin with the above statement. Even with Blame being the selection, a blog favorite AND the blog's choice to win the 2010 Breeders' Cup Classic, this win was a bit of surprise. There was a not-so-small part of this blog that thought Quality Road would crush this field. Going in, he was a formidable opponent and a worthy 1/2 favorite. He had three superb wins this year, setting a track record in one of them. Those led him to be the deserving highweight in the field, Most of the others had a least a fighting chance. But they had no one to Blame once the race had been run.



As the field was in the gate, Haynesfield broke through it prematurely, acting very fractious, but was allowed to run. After the first quarter mile, Quality Road look to be in complete control. After half a mile, Quality Road looked on his way to a blowout win. After 3/4 of a mile, Blame looked like he had a small chance. After a mile, Blame looked like he had a good chance. At the 1/16th pole, it looked like he had a great chance. At the wire, Blame had cashed in his chance and crossed the wire first, under a hand-ride. No whip needed. His jockey Garrett Gomez never lifted the stick.

Before the Whitney, this blog was committed to shouting from the mountaintops that Blame was this year's Breeders' Cup Classic winner, but nothing else. Now with the win, the phrase "Blame - 2010 Horse of the Year" has entered into the lexicon. He has now moved to the top of the handicap division. But how will he accomplish that goal? It looks like that his next race will be the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont October 2nd, then the Breeders Cup Classic. This schedule leaves no margin for error. A loss in the JCGC will take him out of contention. On the flipside, it leaves him in a nice position as a fresh horse. Hopefully this carefully plotted course will have a happy ending come November 6th.

Blame was given an opportunity and seized it. Now, how will he and his connections react with the pressure on? As the line from Shakespeare Henry IV says, "Uneasy lies the head that wears the crown".

The Bing Crosby Handicap - "Blast" Off!

This Sunday is the Grade 1 Bing Crosby Handicap going 6 furlongs at Del Mar over the Polytrack. The 65th running of this race has brought together a field of 7. The race is named after one of the co-founders of Del Mar, the venerable entertainer Bing Crosby. One of these horses will join such past winners as Lit de Justice, Thirty Slews and Kona Gold, each of which who went on to win the Breeders' Cup Sprint later that year. Last year's winner Zensational went off favored in the 2009 Breeders' Cup Sprint at Santa Anita.

Here is the field:

1 E Z's Gentleman Pedroza M 123 2-1
2 Sky Cape Talamo J 119 20-1
3 Scenic Blast (AUS) Smith M Shirreffs John 121 8-1
4 El Brujo Rosario J 119 8-1
5 Cost of Freedom Bejarano R 119 7-5
6 My Summer Slew Quinonez A 119 10-1
7 Smiling Tiger Espinoza V 115 5-1

The selection is #3 Scenic Blast (AUS). This Australian-born gelded son of the Sadler Well's sire Scenic has race across the globe in his native Australia, Japan, Hong Kong and the UK. He won grade 1 races in the UK and down under, but developed a bleeding problem that led to his importation to the states so he could run on the medication Lasix. he is now under the care of trainer John Shirreffs. Last time out in his first start in the states, he finished a credible 4th behind the #6 in the Robert Kerlan Memorial Handicap @ Hollywood Park going 6 furlongs over the turf. He was ridden then, as he will be today, by jockey Mike Smith. Today will mark his 1st start over the Poly, but this blog thinks he will take to it just fine.

"Blast" was 1st time Lasix in his last start, and that is part of the reason he is the selection. This blog is a firm believer that when it comes to geldings, 2nd-time Lasix, as the #3 is today, is the optimum time to bet the horse. He is also the only true closer in a filled with speed and just off the pace types. Furthermore, Blast is 2nd off the layoff, which this blog is very fond of using that angle. He is a ridiculous 8-1 morning line and is fully expected by post time to be a more realistic 4-1 or so.

#5 Cost of Freedom and #1 E Z Gentlemen are the only other Grade 1 winners in the field. Cost of Freedom won the Grade 3 L.A. Handicap last time out at 6f, beating both the #1 and the #6. He is pure speed, but did once rate just off wickedly fast fractions. He is 3 for 5 at Del Mar and has been working great in the interim for trainer John Sadler. (Below is his win in the L.A. Handicap)


E Z Gentelman came off of that 3/4 length defeat in the L.A. Handicap to win Grade 1 Triple Bend last time out going 7 furlongs. He drafted just to the inside of speedster M One Rifle, came up the rail and spurted away to win 3 and 1/4 lengths. He has worked a nice 5f in 59 & 3 over the track on Monday and looks to keep his string of good efforts going. (Below is his win in the Triple Bend Handicap)


#7 Smiling Tiger is the lone three year-old in the field, is trying to join previous 3 year old winners as King's Blade and Zensational. In his last race, he went gate to wire in the Grade 3 Laz Barrera going 7 furlongs versus 3 year olds @ Hollywood Park. He beat Concord Point, who is his next start broke the track record in winning the Grade 3 Iowa Derby. Tiger has come back to work swiftly, throwing several bullet workouts in preparation for the race. He is a need the lead type who has not showed the ability to pass, and he steps up to face older for the first time.

The others are: #6 My Summer Slew, who won the Kerlan defeating Scenic Blast last time out, but was defeated by both E Z Gentleman and Cost of Freedom in the L.A. Handicap; #4 El Brujo, who makes his first start in 2 months for new trainer Bob Baffert after being campaigned in the Midwest and Canada. All but one of his lifetime starts have been over the Polytrack, including both of his Grade 3 wins at Turfway and Keeneland, respectively; and #2 Sky Cape, who makes his first start in over a year, and appears to be outclassed, even if he brought his top effort.

There is the field for the Bing Crosby. Hopefully you will get the chance to "take a plane, take a train, take a car to Del Mar" to see the race live. Wherever you end up seeing this race, it should be a good, fast sprint that will hopefully will end with a "Blast"!