A Few Random BC Post-Draw Thoughts

A few random BC post-draw thoughts:

• Unless Tres Borrachos pulls off a major upset, this year's Dirt Mile winner will be the first to NOT have prepped in a nine furlong race in their previous start.
• Bob Baffert will have 40% of his entrants breaking from post position number one, including three of the four dirt Sprint races, with only Secret Circle avoiding the rail in the sprints.
• As expected, the U.S-based runners in the BC Turf are the four longest shots on the morning line. The division has fallen hard this year.
• Medaglia DAmour has a real chance to blow up the tote in the Ladies' Classic.
• Jackson Bend going in the Sprint instead of the Dirt Mile might have cost him a chance at the Eclipse award for Champion Sprinter. If 6 furlongs proves to be too short and someone like Caleb's Posse or The Factor wins the Dirt Mile, they could snatch the award away from him.
• Loved the lively debate on Twitter today about why Uncle Mo will be the post-time favorite in the Classic.
• Honestly, what was Mike Battaglia thinking when he made up the morning line for the Juvenile Fillies Turf? 134.76% is never an acceptable total for a set of odds, not even with the 20-runner Kentucky Derby!

Here are Battaglia's morning line totals for each Breeders' Cup race:

Why A Bad Morning Line Hurts Everyone

Morning lines are a part of every wagering race in the U.S. no matter whether it is a Grade 1 at Saratoga or a $4kN2L at Beulah Park. The maker of the morning line has an arduous task in trying to figure out how the public will interpret all the possible information in front of them, including who has what information, and whether that information will lead to a lot of money being bet on the horse. It is not an enviable task, but someone has to do it. This task will always leave someone unhappy but it is a necessary part of racing. The line exists to help handicappers, especially a newbie to the sport, see who presumably will have a larger chance to win a particular race. So when a morning line maker does a poor job in making a morning line, it has a negative effect on the bettor no matter whether it's the $2 win bettor or the $3000/ticket Pick 6 player.

There are two main ways a morning line can be bad. One is when a horse is listed at odds that ends up being way off compared to its actual post time odds (though it is normally only complained about when it is lower than the listed morning line odds). This can happen through the morning line maker doing a poor job reading the information; the connections of the horse betting more than expected on him; or the horse is getting a lot of buzz at the track, but what shows up on paper is not very enticing. The happens from time to time, and while annoying, can be forgiven as one of the vagaries of the game.

The other way a morning line can be bad, and the one that this post is mostly about, is when a morning line equals a percentage that is just too high to be reasonable. This is what I'm calling an "overvalued" morning line. If any of you have any interaction with this blog's writer through social media, you will know that this a hot-button issue with me. A bad morning line bothers me more than it should - but then why all the ranting about it? First, let this blog explain what a morning line should equal. The morning line should equal 100% + the takeout on the win bet. Since the morning line uses whole, easy to understand numbers, yet odds can be counted down to a tenth, it is acceptable to have the line fall within a range. That range is 116 percent to 125 percent, depending on what the track's takeout is on that wager. When a morning line does not fall into that range, it is considered a bad line. There are occasions when that happens and people give it a pass, such as the Kentucky Derby, where the unique circumstances of the race make it impossible to craft a line to a normal percentage. But even that has it limitations on how high it can be before it becomes objectionable. When the morning line of an everyday race is above 125%, it is a sign that the morning line maker struggled with the field. But when every race on the card has a line that is significantly over 125%, and this occurs on a daily basis, that is a sign of a morning line maker who is just not doing his job correctly. There are examples at major tracks across the nation, from the San Gabriel Mountains to the Bluegrass all the way to the Atlantic Ocean.

Why all this fuss over an "overvalued" morning line? Well, there are a few main reasons. First, is that it decreases value for the handicapper. How? When it comes to the multi-race exotics all but the most disciplined of players will look at the morning line when considering whom to add in the later legs of those bets. Horse players are always looking to add value in the form of longer odds horses when playing. So if two horses have the same odds, the more likely they will be used in an equal manner. However, if those horses who have the same odds do not have an equal chance (or very close to it), and one should be at higher post-time odds, that mistake in the line will cost the bettor both in the investment and the payout. This issue will especially affect newbies bettors, who depend on the morning line more than the seasoned horse players to help them make decisions on who to use and who not to use. So when a bad line exists on a daily basis at a meet, it erodes value on every possible bet, costing the bettor several times during the meet.

Another reason a consistently overvalued morning line is worthy of an uproar is that it subconsciously destroys the trust between the bettor and the track. How so? Let's use this example: If a company claimed that a product would deliver a specific range of performances, but if the product's performance consistently failed to fall into the range, the consumer would have less faith in the product, and would be less likely to consider using the product and what it is associated with - So if the morning line is consistently incorrect, the betting public will have less faith in it. If the bettor has less faith in it, they are unlikely to use the line and play the racing associated with it. The bettor's decision not to play the track is their way of exercising their free market ability against an unfavorable situation. The lack of trust causes the serious bettor to go elsewhere with their wagering dollars.

The newbie bettor is affected differently by a consistently overvalued morning line when it comes to the issue of trust. Since the track puts out a morning line with the specific intent of helping the bettor, the line's relative accuracy is imperative. With the newbie's dependence on the line, a track would be remiss if it did not provide a competent morning line. If the track is endorsing a consistently overvalued morning line, it is doing a disservice to the bettors by willingly misleading them. If a newbie bettor feels taken advantage of by the track, their discretionary money will be taken to another track or even towards a different sport entirely.

So there's my 'ten cents' on why a overvalued morning line is a bad thing for any level of bettor, whether the $2 type or the $20,000 type. Agree? Disagree? Comment below and help further the discussion. Maybe with enough buzz about it, overvalued morning lines can become a thing of the past.

Breeders' Cup Post Position & Morning Line Thoughts

This post will cover some of my thoughts about the post positions and morning line for the BC, plus a tentative schedule of my thoughts on the BC races. Let's talk about the latter first. Tentatively, this blog will share its thoughts on the first day of races on tomorrow, with thoughts on Saturday (except the Classic) on Thursday morning. On Thursday night (9 PM ET), this blog's thoughts on the Classic will be revealed.

Now onto thoughts on today's post position draws:

• Lookin at Lucky still can't catch a break, as he ended up drawing the outside post in the Classic. He will break from the #12 hole, and will hopefully not get parked wide on both turns.
• Others who shall be at low odds who drew poorly are Harve De Grace in the Ladies' Classic, Pluck in the Juvenile Turf, Tell A Kelly in the Juvenile Fillies and Together in the Juvenile Fillies Turf.
• Some attractive prices on the morning line are Red Desire at 8-1 in the Filly & Mare Turf, Jaycito at 8-1 in the Juvenile and the entire field in the Filly and Mare Sprint except the favorites of Rightly So and Informed Decision.
• Morning Line going in the Dirt Mile and not the Classic caught many off guard, but that was nowhere near the shock of when he was installed as the favorite in the race. The odds will prove to be dramatically different come post time for the race, with Crown of Thorns, Vineyard Haven and Here Comes Ben via for favoritism

This blog invites you to enter the "Off The Board" contest, where one can take a stand against low odds horses in a unique format that proves to be challenging yet fun. Don't think Lucky will hit the board? Put it on there!

A Few Odds and Ends - BC Style

With the announcement of pre-entries tomorrow for the Breeders' Cup, the horse racing nation waits with bated breath for them to come out. This blog just has a few thoughts to say before we start to dive into the rich, meaty juiciness that is the Breeders' Cup past performances.

• The sale for Breeders' Cup Mile-bound Sidney's Candy still has not been finalized. One wonders what is holding it up, and whether the Craigs will still be the owners come post time.
• The decision to put the Turf Sprint as the start of the Pick 6 still boggles the mind. Why would the powers that be put a race that looks to be easier to solve than the Dirt Mile is beyond me. Maybe this was an appeasement to those who prefer turf, now that the Pick 6 is once again evenly split between main track races and grass races.
• How is possible that Calvin Borel aka Calvin Bo-rail aka Saint Calvin of Churchill still has not been publicly announced on a horse for the Classic? It is inconceivable to consider that he would not have a mount in the Classic, let alone every single dirt race the entire weekend.
• This blog wonders what the track will be like, since there is no precipitation predicted to fall between now and the Breeders' Cup in Louisville. Will the track be a repeat of 2000, when it was veritable parking lot? Or maybe 2006, when the rail was a great place to be?
• If you would like the chime on what you think the morning line would be for the Classic, post it here and join in with the others below.