Kentucky Derby Thoughts and Other Picks & Thoughts

With the Kentucky Derby less than 24 hours, the build-up is about to explode everywhere. This blog cannot wait for all the fast racing with huge competitive fields in the Derby and the undercard, plus the other good racing around the country. Let get to some thoughts and picks.

For my detail thoughts on the Kentucky Derby, please visit the Thorofan's Handicapper's Corner, where I eliminate horse after horse until I find the winner. (Short version, I like Daddy Nose Best barely over I'll Have Another, with Creative Cause, Alpha, Gemologist the only three I can see winning.). I sent that along on to the fine folks there at Thorofan on Wednesday night, but since then I have had some second thoughts. After taking another look over the past performances, my thoughts on one horse in particular has drastically changed. For most of the last three weeks since the Arkansas Derby, I had been high on Sabercat to snatch a piece of the exotics at worst, with an outside chance to win. But on the last look, I realized that he his performance looked much better than it probably was in real life. The horse did make up ground late in the stretch, but his closing kick was not as good as it seems. The rest of the field chased after Bode and ran themselves into such vulnerability that Sabercat was able to pick them off. The fact that he could not get by the distance challenged Secret Circle is proof that his closing kick was an optical illusion. Maybe he can pick off 4th, but I no longer think he can hit the board.

For even more thoughts on each horse in the Derby field, take a look at Paul Mazur's blog over at Chicago Now  He and I go back and forth over the chances of the field, disagree over his pick and drop a Simpsons reference that I have been haunted by ever since a certain member of the field won the Breeders' Futurity back in October.

Some quick-and-dirty picks for the stakes on the Derby undercard:
Churchill Downs Handicap: Taking a stab at a big price with Gantry. He is going great right now, riding a four race win streak. He took down Fair Grounds sprint specialist Cash Refund twice over the winter. He figures to be a good price to play against Smiling Tiger (the long layoff raises some red flags), Amazombie (this is not his best distance) and Shackleford (This blog always plays against him at his depressed odds).
Churchill Distaff Turf Mile: Two horse race between Marketing Mix and Daisy Devine. Aruna is better than her last, but this blog is going to take a chance and go against her.
Humana Distaff: Groupie Doll won the Vinery Madison in a sparkling performance, turning the tide against Musical Romance and Hot Summer. She has paired up big performances in the past and has won over the CD dirt. Accepting some sort of chalk in this P5 sequence is necessary, as not every race will be won by a huge longshot.
Woodford Reserve Turf Classic: Slim Shadey and Brilliant Speed are both good prices, both figure to enjoy the pace set-up and both are not on many people's radar. This is not Turallure's optimal distance, even though he does have a win over it.


Good luck folks. Enjoy the great day of racing!

Fostering Thoughts of a Flat Out Upset

The older horses take the stage this weekend in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster Handicap at Churchill Downs going a mile and one-eighth. With no real leader in the older male handicap division, this is a chance for someone to seize command with a win. Eleven horses will step into the gate with the chance to get a Grade 1 win. These runners are evenly matched, with no dominate favorite among them. That is shown by the fact that the morning line favorite is at 7-2. The thoughts on this race will begin with the tepid morning line favorite Giant Oak.

#10 Giant Oak has been in the winner's circle once at Churchill Downs, but it was via the DQ in the Clark Handicap. Before that, he had a run of fourth-place finishes there, including a fourth in this race lat year. In his last start, he finished 5th in the Alysheba here 6 weeks ago, behind fellow entrants Equestrio and Regal Ransom, but ahead of Mission Impazible. He figures to make his late run from well off the pace, which could be a problem, since there is not a ton of pace. His outside post position is not an issue, and he has been training fantastically in the interim.

#6 Regal Ransom and #11 Mission Impazible figure to be the pacesetters in this race. Regal Ransom was nailed at the wire in the Alysheba by probable Hollywood Gold Cup favorite First Dude. As his passing gear is non-existent, his jockey Alan Garcia will attempt to get him to the front, then slow it down. On his flank figures to be Mission Impazible who does his best work when sitting just off the leader. He beat Giant Oak and Apart two back in the New Orleans Handicap. Other than his outside post, he figures to have a good chance. The dull effort last time out is some cause for concern though.

#2 Crown of Thorns (right) invades from the West Coast for trainer Richard Mandella with jockey Tyler Baze in tow. He won the Mervyn Leroy Handicap at Hollywood Park last out, wearing down Sidney's Candy in the final 1/16th of a mile. Mandella said that the six weeks between races was perfect timing for his charge, and he has been working steadily after his win. While he has only run on dirt once, it was off a layoff and probably a distance short then his best (at least on dirt). The way he trains over dirt and his pedigree suggests that he will be fine over it. He should have no problem with the mile and an eighth today, and figures to be sitting right behind Regal Ransom and Mission Impazible early on.

#3 Apart looks to follow the path of his stablemate last year and win the Foster after a win in the Schaefer on the Preakness undercard. Blame pulled the double for his connections, then went on to win the Breeders' Cup Classic last November. Apart won in workmanlike fashion in the Schaefer in a close finish. He was beaten multiple times over the winter by Mission Impazible and has split decisions with Giant Oak. He seems to have bounced back fine, with a couple of solid works at his Keeneland home base. This son of Flatter has all the tools to win, but the fact that he another change in rider is a bit disconcerting. His last rider, top jockey Garrett Gomez, decided to ride Blind Luck in the Vanity Handicap. While Julien Leparoux is no slouch, the fact that Gomez left

Yet none of those is the pick for the race. The pick is the co-longest shot at 30/1 on the morning line #1 Flat Out. This son of Flatter has been a blog favorite even before the existence of this blog. This blog thought that he had retired after getting hurt after the 2009 Arkansas Derby, but was pleasantly surprised when he returned to the races in December 2010. That winning effort was stymied by another layoff until Memorial Day this year, in which he ran second to the consistent old-timer Awesome Gem in the Lone Star Park Handicap, beating multiple graded stakes winners Game On Dude and Thiskyhasnolimit in the process. He popped a swift work in the interim, has a hot jockey in Corey Lanerie and figures to make his move from mid-pack. He is in light at 114 lbs., 4-9 lbs. less than any of the major contenders. While he is taking a major class hike today, and the pace set-up is not that great, at the price he figures to be, this blog is willing to take a shot.

Someone looks to take some measure of control in the handicap division with a victory in this race. A son of Flatter looks to make a mark, but not the one most think. Can Flat Out flat out cause an major upset and announce his arrival? We shall see. Good luck everybody!

A Few Odds and Ends - BC Style

With the announcement of pre-entries tomorrow for the Breeders' Cup, the horse racing nation waits with bated breath for them to come out. This blog just has a few thoughts to say before we start to dive into the rich, meaty juiciness that is the Breeders' Cup past performances.

• The sale for Breeders' Cup Mile-bound Sidney's Candy still has not been finalized. One wonders what is holding it up, and whether the Craigs will still be the owners come post time.
• The decision to put the Turf Sprint as the start of the Pick 6 still boggles the mind. Why would the powers that be put a race that looks to be easier to solve than the Dirt Mile is beyond me. Maybe this was an appeasement to those who prefer turf, now that the Pick 6 is once again evenly split between main track races and grass races.
• How is possible that Calvin Borel aka Calvin Bo-rail aka Saint Calvin of Churchill still has not been publicly announced on a horse for the Classic? It is inconceivable to consider that he would not have a mount in the Classic, let alone every single dirt race the entire weekend.
• This blog wonders what the track will be like, since there is no precipitation predicted to fall between now and the Breeders' Cup in Louisville. Will the track be a repeat of 2000, when it was veritable parking lot? Or maybe 2006, when the rail was a great place to be?
• If you would like the chime on what you think the morning line would be for the Classic, post it here and join in with the others below.

Preakness Day Wrap-up: Plenty of Blame & A Little Lucky

As the middle jewel of the Triple Crown is now in the books, the drought will continue as Super Saver could not capture the Preakness Stakes to keep alive his chances for the sport's first Triple Crown in 32 years. Lookin at Lucky finally got a clean trip, took advantage and willed his way to victory over a game First Dude, who set the pace, dropped back and came back on for 2nd.



Lucky was ridden for the 1st time by Martin Garcia, who won in his first Triple Crown race.

But this blog is going to pay a bit more attention to a race that happened about 4 hours earlier on the card. In the Grade 3 William Donald Schaefer, multiple graded stakes winner Blame made his 2010 debut. This blog is very high on this son of Arch, to the point that he is this blog's choice for who we think will be the 2010 Breeders' Cup Classic winner, which will hopefully lead to him be chosen as the 2010 Horse of the Year. The Albert Stall trainee sat off a so-so pace, split horses at the top of the lane, and won going away under s stern handride by Garrett Gomez. He broke from post 6 in this field of 7, he is the #7.



With this stylish win, he is now being pointed to the Grade 1 Stephen Foster Handicap on June 12th at Churchill Downs. Blame has already won at Churchill Downs in the past, most recently winning the Grade 2 Clark Handicap last thanksgiving weekend to close out his 3 year-old season. In this race he beat Grade 1 winners Einstein and Bullsbay (who he also defeated in the Schaefer), along with Misremembered, who this winter won the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap. He is #5.



The sky is the limit for this homebred of his owners, Adele B Dilschneider & Claiborne Farm. Hopefully he will move forward in the Stephen Foster and be one step closer to the Breeders' Cup Classic, which this year is at Churchill Downs. If he continues on his winning way this year, Horse of the Year is not out of the question. This blog waits for the second Saturday in June with bated breath. Will you?

Kentucky Oaks Card Stakes Selections - Building the Budget for Saturday

As the racing world prepares to turn to Churchill Downs on the 1st Saturday in May, the Friday card anchored by the Kentucky Oaks serves as more than an appetizer for the main course of the Derby. This card has full fields and 6 stakes in all, starting in Race 6, where we are graced with the return of the reigning HOTY.

Race 6: G2 La Troienne S. (10:26 AM PDT) - 1m & 1/16
This compact field of 6 is headline by #4 Rachel Alexandra, as she looks to avenge her loss to begin the season given to her by #3 Zardana. There are two need the lead horses in #1 Be Fair and #5 Unrivaled Belle, who should hook up on the front end. Right behind them should be #6 Distinctive Dixie, who has speed but can rate just off. Rachel should be sitting right here behind these 3, about 3 lengths off. Next will be Zardana about 4 lengths off, with the stone-cold closer #2 Morena bringing up the rear. Rachel, with all of her connections venting a major amount of frustration, opens up at the top of the lane and takes command with an effortless move. She wins as she pleases, with Distinctive Dixie passing the tiring front-runners and holding off Zardana for 2nd.

Selections:
#4 Rachel Alexandra
#6 Distinctive Dixie
#3 Zardana

Race 7: G3 Kentucky Juvenile S. (11:10 AM PDT) - 5 Furlongs
This is a hard race to figure out, as the race is for two-year olds. 5 of the 9 won last time out, while 1 of the others ran 2nd to one of the winners, one ran third and the other two are 1st time starters. While the betting will determine whom is "live", i like #2 Lou Brissie. Among every horse who has run, he is the only one who won from off the pace. He has a good maintenance work and his trainer is a ridiculous 6-15 1st race after the maiden win. His sire Limehouse won the race in 2003. #9 Twelve Pack Shelly is the only horse in the field that has run on dirt, demolishing a field at Laurel in a nice time. The jock follows the filly here in a sign of confidence and she has a good maintenance work in the interim. #7 Nina Fever won in a nice fashion and time has two works and maintains the services of Robby Albarado, who rode three of the horses, all winners, last time out. But she carries the "stain" of the 3f work as her first work back from her race. This blog never plays a horse in the top spot when their first work is 3f, when certain conditions apply. When young horses, anyone could improve quickly, so this is a race to spread. (This will be the subject of a future blog post.)

Selections:
#2 Lou Brissie
#9 Twelve Pack Shelly
#7 Nina Fever

Race 8: Grade 3 CD Turf Sprint (12:04 PDT) - 5 Furlongs (Turf)

I'm going to take a chance on #9 Formidable here. Last time out, in his first ever race on turf, he won in good time after ducking in at the start. He has great speed but does not have to be on the lead. He's had two good works in the interim and Jose Lezcano strings along. At 12/1 on the morning line, this looks like a live longshot. #7 Starfish Bay won in race horse time last out, is the fastest horse in this field and runs well fresh. A nice complement of works for this Pletcher trainee stamp him as one to keep an eye on. #3 Chamberlain Bridge is the class of field, but could be vunerable 2nd off the layoff. Moralist, Silver Timber and Central City are others to consider.

Selections:
#9 Formidable
#7 Starfish Bay
#3 Chamberlain Bridge

Race 9: Grade 3 Alysheba Stakes (12:54 PM PDT) - 1m & 1/16
#6 Bullsbay is the defending champ in this race and comes in off a 5 month layoff. He appears to be training well at his home base at Fair Hill. He is hoping for a good pace to run into, as he will probably sitting 5 lengths off the pace. #3 Macho Again is training lights out according to some people with some serious inside info on him. Half of his wins are on this track and has run huge off the layoff before. #8 Flying Private has always been a horse who has never lived up to the hype. But his two races since being out of action since the Belmont have been good efforts. He won first off the layoff, then closed into a tepid pace set by a lone speed horse, who looks to have a nice future, in Total Bull last out. He has two nice works at CD and may have finally turned the corner. Cool Coal Man will try to take the field wire-to-wire, but must deal with Southern California shipper Enriched. This 1/2 brother to multiple grade 1 winner Lava Man will be trying dirt for the 1st time, but will he have the same shipping issues his brother was notorious for possessing?

Selections:
#6 Bullsbay
#3 Macho Again
#8 Flying Private


Race 10: Grade 2 American Turf (1:47 PM PDT) - 1m & 1 1/16 (Turf)
This race might offer one the best values all day with the presence of #1 Setsuko in the field. With all the talk around him not getting into the Derby, his price should be much lower tha it should be. In this blog's opinion, the Southern California 3 year-old Turf division is very weak. The entire meet at Santa Anita, a main track horse would come over to the turf and win. Alphie's Bet, Make Music For Me, Line of David all did this. With this in mind, i say both Setsuko and Alfarabi are tosses. I fear the favorite #4 Lost Aptitude, as he is probably the class of the field, but the 10 week layoff combined with only one published work in the interim prevents me from picking him on top. #11 Workin for Hops has won 3 out of 4 races, never been out of the exacta and can attend the pace. This son of City Zip has won at the distance and comes in with a nice series of works. #6 Doubles Partner cuts back after not lifting a hoof in the Lane's End, gets back on the turf but has only work in the 5 week interim. He's proven his liking for turf and should be sitting mid-pack. With the classic third off the layoff situation, will he make the necessary improvement to win?

Selections:
#11 Workin For Hops
#4 Lost Aptitude
#6 Doubles Partner

Race 11: Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks (2:45 PM PDT) - 1m & 1/8
The feature on the card features a contentious field of 14 horses. The solid 6/5 morning line favorite is #5 Blind Luck. This daughter of Pollard's Vision looks to rally off what is expected to be strong pace. But this blog has never been very high on her and think she is vulnerable. The selection is #3 Quiet Temper finally reverted back to her stalk-&-pounced tactics last time out in winning the Fair Ground Oaks. She has had two steady works, and keeps Robby Albarado, who could have ridden Beautician as well. With her ability to sit off back, she will get first jump on the closers and hopefully hold on. #12 Ailalea is the other Pletcher filly behind Derby entrant Devil May Care. She struggled in first chance at two turns, but with the addition of blinkers and this being her 2nd race off the layoff, she could move up enough to challenge. With 3 nice "clockworks", this daughter of Pulpit should thrive at the mile and an eighth. (A clockwork is when a horse works with the same number of the days in between each work) Others given a shot are: Jody Slew, whose last race was compromised due to her training schedule being compromised after getting cast in her stall days before the race; Evening Jewel, who won the Ashland last out but has never run over a dirt surface; Joanie's Catch, who somehow finds a way to hit the board; and Tidal Pool, who will try to take them as far as she can under Calvin Borel.

Selections:
#3 Quiet Temper
#12 Ailalea
#11 Evening Jewel

There are the picks for the stakes on the Kentucky Oaks card. I'll be back with picks for the stakes on the Derby card some point on Friday afternoon. Until then, good luck and hopefully will be cashing together tomorrow. :-)