Where to Take A Stand on the Belmont Stakes

Betting the 2012 Belmont Stakes is all about taking stands. Taking a stand with or against I'll Have Another being the twelfth Triple Crown winner in U.S. racing history. Taking a stand on whether Union Rags can bounce back from his disappointing effort in the Kentucky Derby. Taking a stand about how much impact any of the new shooters will have on the final leg of the Triple Crown. All of these stands will be based on however the reader handicaps the race and the opinions formed about the horses. To aid you in this process, the chart below lists the top 3 finishers in the Belmont the last twelve years at selected points of call during the race, as well as the post time odds.



The charts show some interesting statistics. First, it shows that until the far turn, the winner and the 2nd-place finisher are likely to be within a length of each other for the first two-thirds of the race. This has been the case three of the last five years (2007, 2010, 2011). Also, only once in the last twelve years has the winner been further than six lengths back after a half-mile (Jazil, 2006). Both of these facts could be considered a negative for Dullahan's chances, but a positive for those who fancy any combination of I'll Have Another, Paynter and Union Rags.

The two most interesting points the chart points out is that the 3rd place finisher tends to lose ground to the leaders going down the backstretch. This makes sense as horses are faster on the straightaway than the turn, leading to more separation of the field. The other thing that catches the eye is that the average odds for the second place finisher is considerably lower than the winner or the 3rd place finisher. This could be a positive for those who will key any of the four lowest odds horses underneath in the place spot.

As with all data, this chart is up to interpretation, but hopefully it will help aid in the cashing of many, many tickets. Good luck this Saturday folks.

One Drought Broken, Another One In Sight?

I'll Have Another came out of the pack to gun down Bodemeister deep in the stretch of the Kentucky Derby to end the 23 year drought of the Santa Anita Derby winner going on to take the run for the roses. Two weeks later, the North American racing world finds the attention focused on Pimlico Race Course. The Preakness Stakes is the middle leg in the Triple Crown and the next step to see if I'll Have Another can break another streak of futility, the thirty-four year gap since Affirmed last won all three jewels. Many of the top finishers of the Derby come back in an attempt at avenging the loss. Some new shooters will attempt to upset the bid for immortality as well.  Let us get to the action.

I'll Have Another seems to have bounced out of his grueling effort fine. He shipped to Pimlico early to become acclimated with his surroundings before most of the other competitors. He was installed as the 2nd choice on the morning line to the horse who he passed in deep stretch Bodemeister. Bode shipped in this week and has been looking fine over the track, The biggest question for both of these runners is how will they bounce back after their grueling efforts. IHA has only two preps and could be under raced this year to bounce back quickly from such an effort. Bodemeister will be making his sixth start in four months and his third start in 5 weeks. Is it too much too soon?

The others coming back from the Derby in attempt to avenge are Went The Day Well (4th), Creative Cause (5th), Daddy Nose Best (10th) and Optimizer (11th). Many are jumping on the bandwagon of the first two because of their late-running and wide trips in the Derby. CC shipped back to California, then to Pimlico for the race while WTDW shipped home to Fair Hill before coming in for the race. Optimizer is being run into the ground by his trainer, just begging for turf one day in his future. This blog picked Daddy Nose Best in the Derby (but did say that the winner would be on all of the exotics in the win spot), and like him to bounce back from his effort, chalking up the clunker to being too close to hot pace early on in the race, leaving him nothing left in the stretch.

The new shooters seem to be a bit below the runners from the Derby, but some out there like them. Tiger Walk is owned by the one of the best local folks in the business, Sagamore Farm. The distance & class are the question with him. Teeth Of The Dog comes in for Michael Matz, so those who bet Union Rags in the Derby may play him for a chance to make his money back. Pretension is another local horse, but he looks too slow to even clunk up for a minor award, even though he won the local prep. Zetterholm comes in for the crafty Rick Dutrow and steps up from the state-bred ranks. Maybe has a chance to garbage collect underneath in the superfecta. Cozzetti has run some okay race that could maybe earn him a share of the trifecta if things go right.

ANALYSIS: Once again Bodemeister is a play against based on the price and the fact that this feels like too much racing in such a short amount of time. The shipping back and forth for Creative Cause is a major negative for this blog. Went The Day Well will be overbet for what this blog feels was an optical illusion of a fast-closing effort in the Derby based on how slow the final furlong was run in.

Daddy Nose Best was the pick in the Derby and he will be the pick in the Preakness. He figures to get a better trip than the two favorites and will be a better price than WTDW or Creative Cause. But just like the Derby, I'll Have Another will be a part of all tickets in the top spot. An exacta box of these two will be the main play.

Good luck folks!

Kentucky Derby Thoughts and Other Picks & Thoughts

With the Kentucky Derby less than 24 hours, the build-up is about to explode everywhere. This blog cannot wait for all the fast racing with huge competitive fields in the Derby and the undercard, plus the other good racing around the country. Let get to some thoughts and picks.

For my detail thoughts on the Kentucky Derby, please visit the Thorofan's Handicapper's Corner, where I eliminate horse after horse until I find the winner. (Short version, I like Daddy Nose Best barely over I'll Have Another, with Creative Cause, Alpha, Gemologist the only three I can see winning.). I sent that along on to the fine folks there at Thorofan on Wednesday night, but since then I have had some second thoughts. After taking another look over the past performances, my thoughts on one horse in particular has drastically changed. For most of the last three weeks since the Arkansas Derby, I had been high on Sabercat to snatch a piece of the exotics at worst, with an outside chance to win. But on the last look, I realized that he his performance looked much better than it probably was in real life. The horse did make up ground late in the stretch, but his closing kick was not as good as it seems. The rest of the field chased after Bode and ran themselves into such vulnerability that Sabercat was able to pick them off. The fact that he could not get by the distance challenged Secret Circle is proof that his closing kick was an optical illusion. Maybe he can pick off 4th, but I no longer think he can hit the board.

For even more thoughts on each horse in the Derby field, take a look at Paul Mazur's blog over at Chicago Now  He and I go back and forth over the chances of the field, disagree over his pick and drop a Simpsons reference that I have been haunted by ever since a certain member of the field won the Breeders' Futurity back in October.

Some quick-and-dirty picks for the stakes on the Derby undercard:
Churchill Downs Handicap: Taking a stab at a big price with Gantry. He is going great right now, riding a four race win streak. He took down Fair Grounds sprint specialist Cash Refund twice over the winter. He figures to be a good price to play against Smiling Tiger (the long layoff raises some red flags), Amazombie (this is not his best distance) and Shackleford (This blog always plays against him at his depressed odds).
Churchill Distaff Turf Mile: Two horse race between Marketing Mix and Daisy Devine. Aruna is better than her last, but this blog is going to take a chance and go against her.
Humana Distaff: Groupie Doll won the Vinery Madison in a sparkling performance, turning the tide against Musical Romance and Hot Summer. She has paired up big performances in the past and has won over the CD dirt. Accepting some sort of chalk in this P5 sequence is necessary, as not every race will be won by a huge longshot.
Woodford Reserve Turf Classic: Slim Shadey and Brilliant Speed are both good prices, both figure to enjoy the pace set-up and both are not on many people's radar. This is not Turallure's optimal distance, even though he does have a win over it.


Good luck folks. Enjoy the great day of racing!

Drought Breaker - I'll Have Another

After a thrilling stretch duel, I'll Have Another preserved and took the Santa Anita Derby four weeks ago. He has trained well since the race, with two solid six furlongs drills at Betfair Hollywood Park before he shipped to Churchill Downs last week. With him earning the "Drought Breaker" title, let us see the recent history he most overcome in the Kentucky Derby this Saturday being a winner of the Santa Anita Derby:



As you can see, it has been 23 years since the winner of the Santa Anita Derby has gone on to win the Kentucky Derby. Not since the immortal Sunday Silence has a horse pulled the double. During that time the average odds of the Santa Anita Derby was less than 10-1, yet the average finish was just worse than 7th. Several were heavy favorites, such as Mister Frisky, Indian Charlie and Point Given. I'll Have Another figures to go off at odds higher than the average, hopefully he will finish better than average.

So, what are his chances for breaking the streak? Here are the pros & cons, in bullet form.
Pros:

• He has early speed to escape his far-out post, but he doesn't need the lead (unlike others in here).
• His pedigree suggests ten furlongs will not be a problem, being by Flower Alley (a ten furlong winner) out of an Arch (a ten furlong winner) mare.
• He's proven in a fight, as shown in his Santa Anita Derby win.
• His only bad race was in a bog in the Hopeful last year over a track many struggled over.

Cons:

• Post #19 has never produced a Derby winner.
• The one time he shipped, he ran poorly.
• In the past ten years, 22 horses have had a break of 6 weeks longer between preps run within the 4 months. Their record is 22-1-1-1.
• The "drought" of 23 years. (obviously)

This blog think he has a strong chance, though with his outside post he could end up being parked out wide for most of the running, with nothing left turning for home. He is the 2nd choice of this blog. He'll need all the luck he can muster from the outside post.

So there is the chance of the Drought Breaker. Can he end it? We shall see. Good luck this weekend folks!

Why A Six Week Break Between Derby Preps is A Bad Thing

In today's racing, everyone is worrying about the "bounce" effect with their horses. This leads to a culture of big efforts and big layoffs, all to keep up winning percentages and avoid scrutiny. But for the Kentucky Derby, is this strategy a bad thing? The chart below shows the horses in the last ten years who have had a gap of 40 days or more in between the penultimate and final Derby prep.


 
22 horses have run in the Derby in the last ten years under the criteria. The average finish for these horses is tenth, with the average odds being just a shade under 29-1. Horses who fit this criteria (based on the average odds) should hit the board about 4% of the time. So far, given the small sample, the record for these horses is 22-1-1-1. This group has hit the board almost 14% of the time so far, with the shortest and longest prices hitting the board.

Four horses this year fall into this category, each likely to fall beneath the average odds. Those four are Alpha, Hansen, I'll Have Another and Take Charge Indy. Among the five lowest horses in the odds on the chart, the average finish is nearly 9th while the average odds is 11.60-1, though the one winner is among this group. With only 22 horses in the past 10 years that fit the angle, it is hard to make a concrete stand on whether this angle is viable or not. Based on the limited data, it looks like it is a negative, but a few more year's data will answer whether it is or not.

Even though the data is more limited, with just five horses in the last ten years, this blog feels that the stat shown in blue is worth using at this point. That stat shows the average of horses odds & finish who had just two preps. The numbers are worse than the full chart. I'll Have Another and Take Charge Indy both fit that category. Both will be lower odds than any of the previous runners listed, so this year's race will be a stern test of it.

Time will tell whether the early data of this obscure stat will pan out into something usable to take a stand on against a horse in the Derby. Good luck this weekend folks.

Drought Report 2012 - Santa Anita Derby

The big one of the meet is finally upon the Great Race Place. The Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby is the local prep for the Kentucky Derby next month. Such past horses as Sunday Silence, Point Given, A.P. Indy and Affirmed have won this race on their way to later greatness. The last horse to win a Triple Crown race after running in the race is dual champion Lookin at Lucky, who finished 3rd in 2010, then went on the win the Preakness. The last horse to run in the Santa Anita Derby and win the Kentucky Derby was Giacomo in 2005, who was 4th in Arcadia before being first in Louisville. It has been 23 years since a horse has won the Santa Anita Derby and gone on to wear the roses, all the way back in 1989 when Sunday Silence pulled the double. That drought is the longest among ANY of the major preps, and the reason this blog calls the search for the Santa Anita Derby winner the "Drought Report". This year's group of ten runners stretch from a grade 1 winner to a horse with just one start.

The favorite is the multiple graded stakes winner Creative Cause. The winner of the last prep for today's race, the San Felipe, he has been on top of the local division for many months. He built off his 3rd in the San Vicente Stakes to win that race. His works since that race have shown plenty of life and that he has plenty of energy in the tank. His pedigree does not suggests that the nine furlongs of the race will be a problem at all. The only member of the field who is guaranteed a spot in the gate come the first Saturday of May due to his significant graded stakes earnings, so that must be taken into account on whether he will be ridden all out for the win. This idea is bolstered by the fact that his trainer Mike Harrington decided to take the blinkers off of him for the first time in his career. Better to experiment now rather than in the biggest race of the year. With the blinker removal, will Creative Cause be further back than normal off the pace.

I'll Have Another shocked the world when he rocked the field in a stylish win in the Robert B. Lewis at 43-1 two months ago. His connections decided that he needed rest to combat the big effort, pointing to this race since the win. He has several solid works, including a dazzling workout in between races on Santa Anita Handicap day. His trainer Doug O'Neill is high on his charge as O'Neill looks for his first win ever in the race. His pedigree suggests that the extra distance will not be a hint of a problem, as his family is filled with stamina-filled types. He needs a decent chunk of graded stakes earnings to earn a spot in the Kentucky Derby gate with only $151k in the kitty so far. A first or second would guarantee a trip, but a 3rd place finish ($90k) will lead to a few sleepless nights from worrying.

Bob Baffert fires three bullets in an attempt to add to his record 6 wins in this race with Liaison, Paynter and Blueskiesnrainbows. Liasion is the only one of the three to have any graded stakes earnings whatsoever, and he has enough to have already secured a spot in the gate next month. He has slowly been coming along this year,  rebounding from a poor effort (before he fell) in the Lewis with a decent 4th in San Felipe. He seems to have maybe not progressed from his stellar 2yo efforts, but he will get the chance to change that perception. Paynter has but one flashy start at five and half furlongs 7 weeks ago. He worked mostly across town (usually not a good sign) since the race. This feels like "too much, too soon" for a colt who looks like he has a bright future. The way he acted up while schooling this week leads one to believe he would appreciate the time to grow up mentally. Blueskiesnrainbows comes off a drubbing two months ago in an allowance race won by his stablemate Fed Biz. He appears to be in the race as a pace presence.

The others are Longview Drive ( 3rd in the Sham, lacks a real running style); Senor Rain (distance limitations, pace presence); Midnight Transfer (3rd in San Felipe, working well but has physical make-up of a sprinter/miler) and Brother Francis (Still a maiden, but has over $120k in graded earnings).

This blog thinks that Blueskiesnrainbows and Senor Rain duel on the front end, I'll Have Another earns another great trip and kicks clear turning for home. Creative Cause ends up second, with Liaison and Midnight Transfer fighting for third.







This figures to be a good race, and whomever ends up winning will carry the mantle of the "Drought Breaker" to Kentucky to end the near quarter-century drought. Good luck folks.

Drought Report 2012 - Catch-Up

Since the last report, the whole picture has changed in the search for the Drought Breaker. A fresh face stunned in the Lewis. The clubhouse leader came back from his layoff to suffer a loss to stubborn rival. Some horses fell off the trail. All that and Bob Baffert won everything in sight. Let's get to a bullet-point style recap of what has happen since the last report...

(Please forgive the time since the last post. I have been dealing with some personal issues that has made hard to blog at all.)

• I'll Have Another came off a five month layoff to spurt away from the field in the Grade 2 Robert B Lewis S. back on Feb. 4th. He tracked the pacesetter, made his move turning for home and drew off. His pedigree says that ten furlongs shouldn't be a problem, but the fact that his next race will be the Santa Anita Derby is off-putting. Two non-consecutive preps leading up to the Kentucky Derby is serious uncharted territory . He came back to work on 2/23, going four furlongs in 48.60 over at Hollywood Park.
• The runner-up in the Lewis was Empire Way. This full brother to champion 3yo filly Royal Delta closed from last to get second, picking off the rest of the field without being a threat to the winner. Another horse without distance limitations, he should only get better as the year continues (based on his sister's campaign). He has worked twice since the last race, most recently on 2/25 at Hollywood Park, going six furlongs in 1:14. He is pointing to the San Felipe Stakes.
• As for the other runners from the Lewis, Sky Kingdom was subsequently hurt and is off the Derby trail.  Liaison bounced off his subpar effort (he was going nowhere when he fell in the stretch) with two works since the race, the latest being on 2/22 at one mile in 1:43 at Santa Anita. His rival Rousing Sermon came back from his 4th-place finish (moved up to 3rd via DQ) with three works, the latest on 2/27 going six furlongs in 1:13.20 at Hollywood Park. Groovin' Solo, who was placed last via DQ after originally finishing third, came back from the race to post on 2/26 a bullet five furlong work in 58.80 at Santa Anita.
• The Grade 2 San Vicente on President's Day weekend marked the 2012 debut of Creative Cause. The winner of the G1 Norfolk and 3rd in the BC Juvenile, he was the heavy favorite in what turned out to be a four-horse field. He was a little flat and ended up third in the race. His trainer Mike Harrington (who also trains Empire Way) said that he will be headed to Oaklawn Park for the Rebel Stakes for his next start. His nemesis Drill was looking to right the ship after a disastrous last few races, and today was his day, as he ground his way past the pacesetter American Act in the stretch. Drill's trainer Bob Baffert said that he will be kept around one turn for foreseeable future. Maybe a possible start in the Met Mile?
• In other races at Santa Anita, Bodemeister dusted a maiden special weight on 2/11. Named for Baffert's son Bode, his stylish win has his trainer putting him into stakes competition next time out. He worked on 2/26 going six furlongs in 1:14 at Santa Anita. Fed Biz (another Baffert trainee) won a first-level allowance race on 2/9. He is headed for the G2 San Felipe in his next start. He worked on 2/22 six furlongs in 1:16 at Santa Anita.
• On President's Day at Oaklawn Park, the Bob Baffert show continued, as he won both divisions of the Southwest Stakes. In the first division, Castaway attended a soft pace and kicked away to win. In the second division. Secret Circle sat right on the pace and ground his way to a win. Their trainer said he would be back with a runner for the Rebel Stakes, but no guarantee it would be either of his entrants.
• Other workers of note are Sabercat, Delta Jackpot winner, who worked on 2/26 five furlongs in 1:00.80 at Santa Anita; Midnight Transfer, San Pedro Stakes winner, who worked on 2/26 seven furlongs in 1:24.80 at Santa Anita. Both of them are being pointed to the San Felipe Stakes

There is a brief recap of most of the possible contenders for the Drought Breaker. With the San Felipe in two weeks, the picture will hopefully become clearer. Good luck folks.