Drought Breaker - I'll Have Another

After a thrilling stretch duel, I'll Have Another preserved and took the Santa Anita Derby four weeks ago. He has trained well since the race, with two solid six furlongs drills at Betfair Hollywood Park before he shipped to Churchill Downs last week. With him earning the "Drought Breaker" title, let us see the recent history he most overcome in the Kentucky Derby this Saturday being a winner of the Santa Anita Derby:



As you can see, it has been 23 years since the winner of the Santa Anita Derby has gone on to win the Kentucky Derby. Not since the immortal Sunday Silence has a horse pulled the double. During that time the average odds of the Santa Anita Derby was less than 10-1, yet the average finish was just worse than 7th. Several were heavy favorites, such as Mister Frisky, Indian Charlie and Point Given. I'll Have Another figures to go off at odds higher than the average, hopefully he will finish better than average.

So, what are his chances for breaking the streak? Here are the pros & cons, in bullet form.
Pros:

• He has early speed to escape his far-out post, but he doesn't need the lead (unlike others in here).
• His pedigree suggests ten furlongs will not be a problem, being by Flower Alley (a ten furlong winner) out of an Arch (a ten furlong winner) mare.
• He's proven in a fight, as shown in his Santa Anita Derby win.
• His only bad race was in a bog in the Hopeful last year over a track many struggled over.

Cons:

• Post #19 has never produced a Derby winner.
• The one time he shipped, he ran poorly.
• In the past ten years, 22 horses have had a break of 6 weeks longer between preps run within the 4 months. Their record is 22-1-1-1.
• The "drought" of 23 years. (obviously)

This blog think he has a strong chance, though with his outside post he could end up being parked out wide for most of the running, with nothing left turning for home. He is the 2nd choice of this blog. He'll need all the luck he can muster from the outside post.

So there is the chance of the Drought Breaker. Can he end it? We shall see. Good luck this weekend folks!