Drought Breaker - I'll Have Another

After a thrilling stretch duel, I'll Have Another preserved and took the Santa Anita Derby four weeks ago. He has trained well since the race, with two solid six furlongs drills at Betfair Hollywood Park before he shipped to Churchill Downs last week. With him earning the "Drought Breaker" title, let us see the recent history he most overcome in the Kentucky Derby this Saturday being a winner of the Santa Anita Derby:



As you can see, it has been 23 years since the winner of the Santa Anita Derby has gone on to win the Kentucky Derby. Not since the immortal Sunday Silence has a horse pulled the double. During that time the average odds of the Santa Anita Derby was less than 10-1, yet the average finish was just worse than 7th. Several were heavy favorites, such as Mister Frisky, Indian Charlie and Point Given. I'll Have Another figures to go off at odds higher than the average, hopefully he will finish better than average.

So, what are his chances for breaking the streak? Here are the pros & cons, in bullet form.
Pros:

• He has early speed to escape his far-out post, but he doesn't need the lead (unlike others in here).
• His pedigree suggests ten furlongs will not be a problem, being by Flower Alley (a ten furlong winner) out of an Arch (a ten furlong winner) mare.
• He's proven in a fight, as shown in his Santa Anita Derby win.
• His only bad race was in a bog in the Hopeful last year over a track many struggled over.

Cons:

• Post #19 has never produced a Derby winner.
• The one time he shipped, he ran poorly.
• In the past ten years, 22 horses have had a break of 6 weeks longer between preps run within the 4 months. Their record is 22-1-1-1.
• The "drought" of 23 years. (obviously)

This blog think he has a strong chance, though with his outside post he could end up being parked out wide for most of the running, with nothing left turning for home. He is the 2nd choice of this blog. He'll need all the luck he can muster from the outside post.

So there is the chance of the Drought Breaker. Can he end it? We shall see. Good luck this weekend folks!

Drought Report 2012 - Santa Anita Derby

The big one of the meet is finally upon the Great Race Place. The Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby is the local prep for the Kentucky Derby next month. Such past horses as Sunday Silence, Point Given, A.P. Indy and Affirmed have won this race on their way to later greatness. The last horse to win a Triple Crown race after running in the race is dual champion Lookin at Lucky, who finished 3rd in 2010, then went on the win the Preakness. The last horse to run in the Santa Anita Derby and win the Kentucky Derby was Giacomo in 2005, who was 4th in Arcadia before being first in Louisville. It has been 23 years since a horse has won the Santa Anita Derby and gone on to wear the roses, all the way back in 1989 when Sunday Silence pulled the double. That drought is the longest among ANY of the major preps, and the reason this blog calls the search for the Santa Anita Derby winner the "Drought Report". This year's group of ten runners stretch from a grade 1 winner to a horse with just one start.

The favorite is the multiple graded stakes winner Creative Cause. The winner of the last prep for today's race, the San Felipe, he has been on top of the local division for many months. He built off his 3rd in the San Vicente Stakes to win that race. His works since that race have shown plenty of life and that he has plenty of energy in the tank. His pedigree does not suggests that the nine furlongs of the race will be a problem at all. The only member of the field who is guaranteed a spot in the gate come the first Saturday of May due to his significant graded stakes earnings, so that must be taken into account on whether he will be ridden all out for the win. This idea is bolstered by the fact that his trainer Mike Harrington decided to take the blinkers off of him for the first time in his career. Better to experiment now rather than in the biggest race of the year. With the blinker removal, will Creative Cause be further back than normal off the pace.

I'll Have Another shocked the world when he rocked the field in a stylish win in the Robert B. Lewis at 43-1 two months ago. His connections decided that he needed rest to combat the big effort, pointing to this race since the win. He has several solid works, including a dazzling workout in between races on Santa Anita Handicap day. His trainer Doug O'Neill is high on his charge as O'Neill looks for his first win ever in the race. His pedigree suggests that the extra distance will not be a hint of a problem, as his family is filled with stamina-filled types. He needs a decent chunk of graded stakes earnings to earn a spot in the Kentucky Derby gate with only $151k in the kitty so far. A first or second would guarantee a trip, but a 3rd place finish ($90k) will lead to a few sleepless nights from worrying.

Bob Baffert fires three bullets in an attempt to add to his record 6 wins in this race with Liaison, Paynter and Blueskiesnrainbows. Liasion is the only one of the three to have any graded stakes earnings whatsoever, and he has enough to have already secured a spot in the gate next month. He has slowly been coming along this year,  rebounding from a poor effort (before he fell) in the Lewis with a decent 4th in San Felipe. He seems to have maybe not progressed from his stellar 2yo efforts, but he will get the chance to change that perception. Paynter has but one flashy start at five and half furlongs 7 weeks ago. He worked mostly across town (usually not a good sign) since the race. This feels like "too much, too soon" for a colt who looks like he has a bright future. The way he acted up while schooling this week leads one to believe he would appreciate the time to grow up mentally. Blueskiesnrainbows comes off a drubbing two months ago in an allowance race won by his stablemate Fed Biz. He appears to be in the race as a pace presence.

The others are Longview Drive ( 3rd in the Sham, lacks a real running style); Senor Rain (distance limitations, pace presence); Midnight Transfer (3rd in San Felipe, working well but has physical make-up of a sprinter/miler) and Brother Francis (Still a maiden, but has over $120k in graded earnings).

This blog thinks that Blueskiesnrainbows and Senor Rain duel on the front end, I'll Have Another earns another great trip and kicks clear turning for home. Creative Cause ends up second, with Liaison and Midnight Transfer fighting for third.







This figures to be a good race, and whomever ends up winning will carry the mantle of the "Drought Breaker" to Kentucky to end the near quarter-century drought. Good luck folks.

Drought Report 2012 - 1/20

This week's Drought Report will be a brief one, as there was no stakes action last weekend. This weekend is the ungraded $75k San Pedro Stakes, which should produce a starter or two for San Vicente Stakes next month. First, a recap of the two races mentioned in last week's report, then a few notable workouts, with a brief preview of the San Pedro Stakes to wrap up the report.

• Sky Kingdom won a first level allowance race on 1/12 that turned into a glorified paid workout when the four horse field (already reduced from five due to a scratch) turned into three when the outclassed runner was eased early on. Sky Kingdom took advantage of his lesser competition to stalk the pace, range up to the outside and win geared down without really being asked. If nothing else, he had another trip out on the track to gain some more experience. It did not prove that he can handle a solid pace routing, as some are proclaiming. 
• Brother Francis scratched out of a maiden special weight on 1/14 with a slight illness, but his trainer James Cassidy said it was only a minor issue and that he should be back on track soon.
• Liaison, Grade 1 CashCall Futurity winner, leads off the Santa Anita workers with a bullet six furlong work in 1:11 on 1/19
• Rousing Sermon worked six furlongs in 1:14.80 on 1/17
• Chips All In, Eddie Logan Stakes winner, worked five furlongs in 1:03.60 on 1/16
• Groovin' Solo , half-bro to GSWs Premier Pegasus & Street Hero, worked 5 furlongs in 59.4 on 1/17.
• Out of Bounds, Grade 3 Sham Stakes winner, worked at Hollywood Park in first spin since the race, going three furlongs in 37.20
• Creative Cause, Grade 1 Norfolk winner, worked six furlongs in 1:14 at Hollywood Park on 1/20

The San Pedro Stakes is a 6 1/2 furlong race on the dirt that will be run this Sunday. It brings together a mixed bag of 6. Drill looks to right the ship on the cutback after back-to-back dismal efforts routing. Midnight Transfer comes in off a fast maiden breaking score on opening day, while Got Even blitz the field in the Cal Breeders' Champion Stakes last out. Passing Game looks to turn the tide on Got Even after having no chance on the speed-favoring track on opening day. Let's Get Crackin comes in from out of town while continuing his musical chair trainer changes. Coach Sickie returns after failing to fire up north. This will be an interesting race, as no one knows exactly how Drill will run. At least while sprinting, Drill has not shown the need for the lead, so if runs back to any of his sprint wins, he should win. Another big question to figure out is how will the three horses who ran on opening day come out of that race? Midnight Transfer would seem to figure things out, but could it be that he just found a soft maiden group instead? The winner will probably be pointed to a start in the San Vicente Stakes, or possibly a race out of town like the Southwest S. at Oaklawn.

 Good luck this weekend folks!

Drought Report 2012 - First Update

With the first graded stake at Santa Anita for the Derby group run, now would be a good time to give a brief look at many of the possible horses who could carry the mantle of the "Drought Breaker" to Kentucky the first Saturday in May. This list comprises a mix of grade one winners, other stakes winners, flashy maiden winners and a maiden. The colts are a diverse group of pedigrees, from sprint-leaning to run-all-day types. Some will be pointing to the sprint (San Vicente), while others will be headed toward the Lewis for their next start, with a few hoping to get that elusive allowance race to fill. Let us take a look.

Note: This post was intended to run before the Sham, as a way to introduce everyone to this group of 3yos, but due to "blog operator failure" it is coming out now instead.

Sky Kingdom gets the first nod solely because he will be the first to race among this group, as the ever elusive first level allowance race was used as the 2nd race on 1/12, even though it only had five entrants (two of them being Baffert trainees). This son of Empire Maker broke his maiden when he stretched out to two turns two starts back across town at Hollywood Park. He followed that up with a solid 4th in the Grade 1 Hollywood Futurity. He will be making his first start on dirt today, even though he has been working over the surface since October. His connections are hoping to take advantage of this rarely run condition to get this charge some more experience before tackling stakes once again. With his pedigree, the Derby distance will not be a problem, as his sire is a Belmont winner and his damsire is a well-known provider of stamina. His works haven't been the lightning quick spins his trainer is known for, but they are still solid works.

Brother Francis gets the next nod because he is entered in a maiden special weight on the grass for this Saturday (1/14). He closed strongly in a MSW and in the G3 Hollywood Prevue to finish 2nd in both races. He then followed it up with a fast-closing third in the G1 Hollywood Futurity. This son of Lion Heart is out of a mare who has plenty of distance in her pedigree, and the sire has produced a 12f winner in BC Turf winner Dangerous Midge. His connections obviously want to get a win while keeping him around two turns, and with the track playing with the way it has (favoring on or near the lead types), they have chosen to go the turf in order to get a win. He has worked in trainer's preferred steady manner since the Futurity.

Liaison won the aforementioned G1 Hollywood Futurity over Rousing Sermon. These two made up the exacta in the Real Quiet Stakes as well. Liaison has three solid 5 furlongs workouts since the race, and is most likely pointing to the G2 Robert Lewis stakes in February. Rousing Sermon has worked four times since the race and could be pointing to the same race, though it is possible that either could ship out of town for their next race. Here is a replay of the Hollywood Futurity:


Creative Cause is coming off a third in the G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile last time out. He took some time off the work tab after the race to freshen up for the Derby trail, and did not work until New Year's Eve. He is building towards his first start later in the meet, either the Lewis or the San Felipe. He should have little problem stretching out going forward, being by Giant's Causeway out of a mare who hit the board multiple times going nine furlongs. His stable and owner-mate  Empire Way is a full brother to the multiple Grade 1 winning filly ROYAL DELTA, who will most likely wins this year's Eclipse award for 3yo fillies. With her successes going very long, he should not have any trouble with this distance, though he does need to improve to contend with the better runners out here, as he missed the board in both his stakes attempts after his win. He has 3 solid works since the last race. His sister improved as the year went on, so maybe he will as well.

Trainer Steve Asmussen has a few Derby hopefuls as well. Even though his only trainee who is guaranteed a spot in the gate for the Kentucky Derby Sabercat didn't make the trip, he still has such up and comers as Wharton, Unbridled's Note, along with stakes placed Daddy Nose Best. The first two are coming off of maiden special weight wins on the first Stars of Tomorrow card at Churchill Downs. They both are training steadily here and will be looking to make their next start at some point towards the middle of the meet. Daddy Nose Best flopped as the chalk in the Eddie Logan Stakes, but his pedigree says that he should be fine routing on the dirt, something he has never done before. With a dearth of turf stakes in SoCal on the schedule, the connections will most likely find out whether he can truly dirt or not very soon,

Out of Bounds is the last one we will talk about, as he just won the G3 Sham Stakes going a mile at 10-1.  He came out of the race very well according to his connections, with plenty of energy. His connections have stated that he will be pointed to the Grade 2 San Felipe in March for his next start. As discussed in the last post, his chances to get 9 furlongs are strong, but that 10f in May will be a bit of challenge. We wish him and all of those on this list good luck and to stay healthy.

These are just a few of the possible horses who could be the one to earn the "Drought Breaker" mantle come the first Saturday in April. It could even be a horse who has not even made a single start yet, like last year's winner Midnight Interlude, who would not make his debut until the end of January. Whomever wins the Santa Anita Derby will earn the right to end the 23 year long streak. Good luck out there.

Drought Report 2012 - Grade 3 Sham Stakes

With the change in the calendar to 2012, the search once again begins in earnest for a three year old who can end the drought. The now nearly 23 year-long drought since a winner of a the Santa Anita Derby has gone on to win the Kentucky Derby. The first step to finding who will be the one to carry the chances to end the drought is the Grade 3 $100,000 Sham Stakes going one mile. This race has moved around the calendar the last few years and has replaced the now-defunct San Rafael (which was run at the same distance) with the cutback to one mile after last year's running at 1m & 1/16th. A field of six runners comes together, a mix of stakes winners and horses who just broke their maiden.

The morning line favorite will be Secret Circle. This Bob Baffert trainee was last seen gamely holding on in the inaugural running of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint. This will be the furthest he has ever run as he stretches out to two turns for the race. This son of Eddington shouldn't have a problem with the extra distance from a pedigree standpoint, as his sire won several stakes at 9f and further, and his dam having won going two turns as well. He is a horse with ample speed, though as he showed in the Jack Goodman Stakes, he does not need the lead to win. His workouts have been the typical swift Baffert drills in the A.M. He figures to be on the lead or sitting just off a swift pace, a plus on this track.

Out of Bounds (right) broke his maiden last time out across town at Hollywood Park going 7 furlongs. He stalked a solid pace and won at 7 furlongs. He extends another furlong today and returns to dirt in this stake. He loses the jockey who rode him for his first two starts to the favorite, but picks up a more-than-adequate replacement in the red-hot Garrett Gomez, who won several stakes opening week. His workouts have been fast across town at Hollywood Park since the win, which is not the norm for his conservative trainer Eoin Harty. The extra furlong should not be a problem based on his pedigree, as both his sire and dam won going nine furlongs. He is a three-quarter brother to blog favorite Etched, who also won going a mile and an eighth. (Etched is by Out of Bounds grandsire Forestry out of the dam Unbridled Elaine.) He figures to be sitting mid-pack behind the speed and making a run turning for home.

Hierro ships in from Kentucky, along with the rest of the Asmussen contingent, looking to win this race in back-to-back years for the barn. (Tapizar won this race last year) This son of Hard Spun broke his maiden in his third try at the 7 furlong distance last time out. He brings along with him the jockey who rode him in that win in from out-of-town, Julien Leparoux. He is another who stretches out another furlong and goes two turns for the first time. He has worked like clockwork since his arrival, including a bullet two works back. He has been well backed in the future books in Vegas, as he has bet down to a low 25/1. (As a reference point, the favorite is Union Rags at 10/1, Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner is 18/1). His pedigree does not figure to be an issue going one mile, as his sire won going 9 furlongs. He sat off a less-than-blistering pace in his win, so he figures to project to be mid-pack, probably near Out of Bounds.

The other three who make up the field are: Senor Rain, who figures to add to pace, even with the blinkers being taken off; Longview Drive, who comes off a third-place finish in the Delta Jackpot (just like last year's Sham runner-up Clubhouse Ride) and seems to have discovered a passing gear; and Handsome Mike, who cuts back a sixteenth when fading late after setting swift fractions in the Hollywood Futurity. All three have route experience in stakes, with varying results.

The pick is Out of Bounds, as either he or Secret Circle figures to be the one to take advantage of the expected solid pace, and he will be the better price. He will take the first stone of the path to figuring out who will be this year's possible "Drought Breaker".

Good luck folks!

Midnight Interlude Assumes His Role As The Drought Breaker

The Santa Anita Derby has been run, and Bob Baffert won it. If you would have told that to someone at the beginning of the meet, no one would have batted an eyelash at the statement. But if you had told that someone that he would win with a late-developing horse who didn't make his first start until Sunshine Millions Day, you would have been scoffed at as a fool. Furthermore, if you had told that someone that Victor Espinoza, the same Victor Espinoza who Baffert wanted hung from the grandstand after last year's Santa Anita Derby, you would be taken away to the insane asylum for such crazy talk. But yet that is exactly what happened, as the late-developing son of War Chant Midnight Interlude (right) took over in the final strides to win the Grade 1 $1,000,000 Santa Anita Derby.

After the scratches of both blog favorite Premier Pegasus and the other Baffert entrant Jaycito, the race was a wide open affair. Favoritism fell to El Camino Real Derby winner Silver Medallion, who went off at 5-2. He and Robert B Lewis winner Anthony's Cross were still alive for the Preakness 5.5, which would pay $5 million to the owner of any horse who could pull off a trio of wins. Silver Medallion had not run since the El Camino Real, had a change of ownership since the win, but was working well in the interim. Anthony's Cross had not run since the Lewis S., but had thrown bullets in numerous works. He went off as the 3rd choice at 3.30-1. The other buzz horse in the race was Mr. Commons, who had clockers agog with his works over at Hollywood Park after his first-level allowance race in late February. He would go off as the second choice in the race at 3-1.

Comma To The Top went right to the lead, with Silver Medallion sitting a length off. Midnight Interlude sat two lengths off the pace, with another length to Mr. Commons, and one more to Anthony's Cross after the first quarter. Down the backstretch Comma maintained control, with everyone staying about the same distance back from him through moderate middle fractions. As they turned for home, Comma maintained control, with Mr. Commons taking up the chase from Silver Medallion, with Midnight Interlude continuing on on the outside and Anthony's Cross gaining ground. At the wire, Midnight Interlude went by a tiring Mr. Commons and Silver Medallion to finally gun down Comma To The Top, who put in a game effort in defeat. Anthony's Cross finished a disappointing fifth. Bench Points did not lift a hoof finishing 7th.

Now Midnight Interlude must carry around the mantle of The Drought Breaker with him as he goes on to Kentucky Derby the first Saturday in May. He hopes to break the 22 year long drought that has existed since Sunday Silence puled the double back in 1989. He does have some things going for him. His jockey-trainer combo previously won the 2002 Derby with War Emblem. Bob and Victor had a falling out soon after that race, and the relationship hit a low point during last year's Santa Anita Derby, when Victor's mount almost put Bob's Lookin at Lucky over the rail, with Victor coming to blows with Lucky's jockey Garret Gomez. But with many other local jocks already engaged for the race, and Baffert's main jockey Martin Garcia already on derby favorite The Factor (and further engaged to ride Misremembered in the Oaklawn Handicap the same day), Victor had this mount fall into his lap. Now they are riding on a high towards the Twin Spires.

But M.I. has several things working against him, mainly one drought that extends all the way back to 1882. That 129 year gap is the time that has past since a horse won the Derby without a start at two. But if any man can overcome such a curse it is his multiple Derby winning trainer. Hr figured out how to win on synthetics. He figured out how to won stakes across the nation. He figured out how to win Grade 1's with a horse who had only race in 11 months. Surely he can figure a way to break this curse. Another problem is that M.I. pedigree is not the greatest for the 1m & 1/4. His sire War Chant lost the Santa Anita Derby, and was a miler. The damside does provide some additional hope he could get the distance, it does not exactly scream dirt. This blog's honest opinion is that while he is hopeful the drought will end, he doubts that it will happen.

The results of the race had other effects on the Derby situation as well. Comma To The Top's huge effort has caused his trainer Peter Miller to have second thoughts about them not pointing the horse towards the Derby, as they stated they previously would. Neither Silver Medallion, Anthony's Cross nor Mr. Commons likely earned enough money to make the Derby gate, with Silver Medallion having the most cumulative earnings among the three with a little more than $184k. If Comma To The Top does not go, as this blog hopes he does due to his slim chances and his draining effort in the race, the Santa Anita Derby will most likely have only one representative in Midnight Interlude.

So once again Baffert wins the big race of the meet, but this time under some less than Baffert-like circumstances. Midnight Interlude will carry the flag for southern California, and with it the hopes that the drought will finally be broken. Can he do it? We shall see come the first Saturday in May.

Drought Report - Time to Find Out Who Will Try To Be The Drought Breaker

Santa Anita Derby Day is here, and the time to find out who will be the one to try to end the 22 year-long drought is upon us. With the news that Santa Anita Derby favorite, blog favorite and this blog's choice to break the drought Premier Pegasus off the trail with a hairline fracture, and that Jaycito is also out of the race with a foot issue, the race is wide open for someone to take advantage and punch their ticket to the Kentucky Derby. The three horses who look the likeliest to take advantage of the top two's absence are Silver Medallion, Anthony's Cross and Mr. Commons. Let's break down these three.

Silver Medallion won the El Camino Real Derby last time out in a driving finish, closing off a suspect pace. He has worked well in the interim since the race, and his pedigree does not suggest any problem with the distance. He picks up Garrett Gomez to ride him in the race. While he has never ran on the dirt, he has trained well over the main track. He should sit a stalking trip off of Comma To The Top and Midnight Interlude, and look to take over turning for home. He will vie for favoritism, and he will be this blog's selection for the race. This blog thought he would finish a clear second behind PrePeg going in, and with his defection, this blog will move him up to the top spot. He needs a 1-2 finish to assure himself a spot in the gate on May 7th.

Anthony's Cross (right) won the Robert B Lewis Stakes last out in game fashion over Riveting Reason. He has improved each and every start, and the addition of blinkers help kept him focus on his task. His swift works in the interim (not the norm for his trainer Eoin Harty) and the services of Joel Rosario add to his appeal. He has won at the distance, so today's 1m & 1/8 should not be a problem. He figures to be sitting even with Silver Medallion in a stalking position. This blog respects his form, but thinks he might be just a cut below. His inability to put away Riveting Reason, who is a solid horse but not the gamest animal, is a major red flag. He will be tested today. He needs a 1-2-3 finish to assure himself of a spot in the gate on May 7th.

The third contender is Mr. Commons. This son of Artie Schiller built on his stylish maiden win on the grass in an allowance race last time on the dirt. He won a one mile race, grinding his way to victory. He has worked smartly since the race, popping bullet after bullet, which is not his trainer's style. The private clockers in southern California raved about his 7 furlong work on March 28th, oohing and aahing over its quality. His pedigree does not scream dirt, but he handled it fine. He figures to lay mid-pack in the race and make a run in the stretch. His trainer John Shireffs knows his way around the Derby picture, winning it with Giacomo in 2005. This blog thinks that while the hype is understandable, he may struggle against this type. The allowance field he beat in that win was not the strongest, as several have struggled in stakes competition, and the third place finisher Chiloquin broke his maiden for a tag. He would need to win the race to get into the gate come the first Saturday in May.

Others who have faint Derby aspirations are Bench Points, who ran a distant third in the San Felipe Stakes behind PrePeg and Jaycito, snapping his undefeated streak. He would need to run 1-2 to get in the Derby. Indian Winter, who looks to bounce back after a questionable effort in the Turf Paradise Derby. He would need to win to get in.

This Santa Anita Derby has lost some luster due to the top two abdicating, but this leaves open a new threat to gain the throne. Who will step up and earn the precious graded stakes earnings? Who will step up and take the mantle of Drought Breaker and place it upon themselves to break the drought? Can that horse break the drought? We shall see? Good luck everybody!

Drought Report - 9 Days To Go

As the list of horses who will line up to carry the hopes of ending the drought seems to grow by the minute, here is a quick blurb about each of the probable entrants as of now for the Santa Anita Derby, listed in alphabetical order.

Anthony's Cross (right) continued his swift preparations by working a bullet six furlongs at Hollywood Park on Monday (3/28) in 1:12.20, the best of 5 works that morning. The winner of the Lewis looks to be coming into the race well.

Bench Points worked on Saturday (3/26) at Hollywood Park 5 furlongs in 1:01:00, the 9th best of 20 works at the distance. This Tim Yakteen trainee looks to improve off his third-place effort in the San Felipe Stakes.

Celestic Night worked on Sunday (3/27) at Hollywood Park 6 furlongs in 1:13.60, the 3rd best of 8 works at the distance. Claimed by Mike Mitchell for $80k out of a race down the hill, he will be taking a steep step up in class.

Comma To The Top worked on Wednesday (3/30) at Hollywood Park 4 furlongs in 49.40. His trainer Peter Miller announced that the Kentucky Derby is not in the plans for his horse, as he will struggle with the distance.

Indian Winter worked on Sunday (3/27) at Santa Anita 7 furlongs in 1:23:80. He looks to bounce back from a no excuse second in the Turf Paradise Derby last out. Patrick Valenzuela will have the mount in the Santa Anita Derby.

Jaycito (right) hasn't worked since last week's work at Hollywood Park. He will probably work on Friday. He is on the fence on whether he will run here or in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on the same day. (This blog will update this post with his work when it occurs.)

Mr. Commons has continued to work a hole in the wind in preparation for the race. He worked on Monday 7 furlongs in 1:23.80 at Hollywood Park. The effort was a tag-team work, as he started with one workmate, then had another join in during the work. Private clockers have been raving about him, and the buzz will only increase for him.

Offlee Wild Boys has been working at running and working at Golden Gate for the race. He worked there on Sunday six furlongs in 1:13.40, the best of 11 works. He and Comma To The Top share the most career starts made by any horse in the race with 12.

Premier Pegasus has been galloping since his win in the San Felipe Stakes. Based on previous experience, he should be working Saturday in his last work for the Santa Anita Derby.

Silver Medallion worked on Tuesday at Santa Anita 7 furlongs in 1:23.60. He will have the services of Garrett Gomez for the race.

One of the ones who will be not running in the race is Riveting Reason, who is off the Derby trail due to an injury. We wish him a speedy recovery

So there is a quick recap of those who will be pointing to the race. Who will take the win and carry the hopes of ending the drought? We shall see. Good luck everybody.

Drought Report - 3/24

This week's drought report is rather light, so well go all bullets with it.

• Possible Santa Anita Derby horses The Factor and Sway Away ran in the Rebel stakes last week with mixed results. The Factor won, while Sway Away finished off the board while losing a tooth. It looks like both will be headed to the Arkansas Derby instead, according to their trainer's comments
  
• Silver Medallion is being pointed to the Santa Anita Derby, and Garrett Gomez
  will have the mount in the race. He worked out on 3/23 (Wed.) at Santa Anita 5 furlongs in 1:02.40, the 56th out of 76 works.
• Mr Commons, who won a first level allowance last out, has thrown back-to-back bullets, the latest being 6 furlongs in 1:11.80 at Hollywood Park on 3/22 (Tue.)
  
• Jaycito worked at Hollywood Park in his first work since the San Felipe 4 furlongs in 48.40 on 3/22. Baffert says that he could be headed to the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on the same day instead.
• Anthony's Cross, winner of the Robert E. Lewis, continued working towards the Santa Anita Derby with a bullet 4 furlong work in 46.8 at Hollywood Park on 3/20 (Sun.)
  

Drought Report - PrePeg Sprouts Wings in the San Felipe

The Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes appeared to be a tough race on paper. With two grade one winners, a pair of Bafferts, an abundance of speed and contenders stretching out to a route for the first time, there were many ways to go in this race. This blog hoped that a star would burst onto the scene to lead the charge in the search for the "Drought Breaker". But even this blog could not believe just how this leader emerged, with a devastating performance over his rivals. Furthermore, this blog was in shock that it was the horse that was the one pegged to do so that was doing the winning.

Premier Pegasus (right) won the race with a spurt of pure power turning for home. He dropped back off the hot pace set by Albergatti, Runflatout and Comma To The Top. PrePeg moved passed his tiring rivals with a strong burst turning for home, getting lengths of separation in the span of a quarter-mile. In the end, he won the race by 7 3/4 lengths in a time of 1:41.23. His sire Fusaichi Pegasus also won this race before going on to win the Kentucky Derby in 2000. Now many will point out that he did receive a great set-up with the swift fractions, and the fact that he tired late. This blog does not disagree with either statement, but the counterpoint to that is that it still takes a good horse to get that kind of separation that quickly. Also, he was making his first start routing off a 20 day layoff with only one work in between, and only 3 works before the previous race, which was be preceded by a 3 month layoff. He had every right to get tired at that point, and he was not really asked in the final 1/16th. This blog is sky high over the performance, as he has been the choice to break the drought and win the Kentucky Derby since October of last year. (Full disclosure: This blog managed to get into the winner's circle picture for the San Felipe, so I am admittedly somewhat biased on my thoughts of this race about PrePeg.)

Second-place finisher Jaycito (right) was making his first start back since his disaster of a race in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. He dropped way back and rallied on for second. It was a nice building block for the future, which figures to be the Santa Anita Derby and a rematch with Premier Pegasus. His pedigree indicates that he will have no problems with the distance, and his run on Saturday answered the lingering dirt questions that surrounded him after his BC disaster. He will have to improve to catch not only PrePeg, but the ever-looming Uncle Mo as well. His trainer Bob Baffert has won several Santa Anita Derby and Kentucky Derby trophies, but never in the same year. Will this be the year?

The third-place finsher Bench Points (left) had some minor traffic problems when he made his move to inside as PrePeg was launching on the outside, but was no match for the winner and barely made it by Comma To The Top, who ran a game 4th after being a part of those wicked fractions. He proved that he can handle the dirt just fine but the percieved distance limtations may be a reality. The connections could point to a race like the Met Mile, where his speed and determination will be an asset. The massively hyped Runflatout, who was bet down to the 5/2 second choice, finished last, being done in by the wicked fractions that were heavily predicted. Hopefully his connections will regroup with him for a summer campaign.


News and Notes

• Silver Medallion, the El Camino Real winner, had a majority interest in him sold, and will most likely be running in the Louisiana Derby for his last Derby prep instead of the Santa Anita Derby, where the chance to stay alive for the Preakness 5.5. existed. He worked 6f in 1:12.80 over the Santa Anita dirt on Monday (3/14), the 6th best of 14 works.
• Another Asmussen trainee, Astrology, is headed to the Sunland Park Derby for his first start of the year. He worked 7f in 1:25.20 on 3/15.
• Robert B Lewis Stakes winner Anthony's Cross worked across town at Hollywood on Monday, working 6f in 1:14.60, the 5th best of 6th works.
• Also working at Hollywood, but on Tuesday (3/15) was allowance winner Mr. Commons. He popped a bullet 5f work in 59.2, the fastest of 27 works that day.
• San Vicente runner-up Sway Away worked on 3/12 at Santa Anita, going 7f in 1:23.6 in preparation for the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park this weekend. He will be going with the winner of that race The Factor, who also worked on 3/12, going a bullet 6f in 1:12.2, the best of 11 workers. Either one of them could be a player in the Santa Anita Derby.

Saturday saw a horse charge to the lead of the division with a burst of speed. Can Premier Pegasus be like his father and win both the San Felipe and the Kentucky Derby? Can PrePeg be like Sunday Silence and win the San Felipe, the Santa Anita Derby and the Kentucky Derby? Can PrePeg be the one who can finall break through and match the feat of the legendary Affirmed, who won the San Felipe, the Santa Anita Derby and then the elusive Triple Crown? We shall see. Good luck everybody.

San Felipe Stakes - Schooling Shots

This post will share some of the shots taken over the last two days of most of the runners in the grade 2 San Felipe Stakes being run this Saturday at Santa Anita. If you wish to know my thoughts about the race, including who I picked and who I think the main dangers are to that pick, please go to the Thorofan Handicappers' Corner. Now, this blog was unable to get a shot of every horse schooling, as circumstances prevent this. (Some horses do not have a name on the halter, some may have not schooled or they may have sneaked by in plain sight.)

Albergatti (Thursday)
















Awesome Patriot (Thursday)












Premier Pegasus (Friday)













Bench Points (Friday)











Jakesam (Friday)










Jaycito (Thursday)

Drought Report - Santa Anita Oaks Preview / San Vicente Stakes Review

The Drought Report returns after a one week absence to recap the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes from President's Day weekend. This race looks like it may produce at least one horse pointed to the Santa Anita Derby with some "buzz" around them. Looking forward, this blog shall look at this weekend's Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks, which could possibly produce a Santa Anita Derby starter. Let's get to the recap. (I apologize for the lack of posting, but some personal issues came up that prevent me from posting)

The Factor (right) won the San Vicente by going fast early (but slow late). He blazed through early fractions of 22.20 and 43.41, and finished in a slow (for that track) 36.93 seconds the last 3 furlongs. He snatched the lead early away from City Cool, disposed of that rival, kicked clear, then held off Sway Away's late stab. It was a solid effort from a horse who had only worked twice (at Hollywood Park) since his record-setting win on opening day. (He had been galloping during the interim). His connections have decided to try a route of ground in his next race, but it will not be at Santa Anita. They will instead point him towards the Grade 3 $800k Sunland Derby on March 27th. While this blog does not think he will last the Derby distance, he would have been a major factor (no pun intended) in the San Felipe Stakes.

Sway Away (right) rallied from far back to finish second. He was further back than normal coming off the layoff, and that is what may have cost him the victory. This son of Afleet Alex made his first start since finishing second to J P's Gusto in the Grade 2 Best Pal Stakes last August at Del Mar. His pedigree suggests that he should not have an issue with any additional distance. His connections have not made a firm decision on what his next race will be, but they have narrowed it down to either the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes next weekend or ship out for the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park the following weekend. Both races are at a mile and one-sixteenth. Either race could be used as a stepping-stone for the Santa Anita Derby.

Premier Pegasus (right) stalked the pace but gave way a little late, staying on for third. He was making his first start since his win in the Grade 3 Hollywood Prevue last November. His effort was rather good for a horse who only manages to get in three works in preparation for the race off the three month layoff. This blog's pick to win the Kentucky Derby ran about as expected in the race, and it should set him up well for whatever his next race will be. One would assume that his next start would be in the San Felipe as well, but no word has been given if it will be. The San Felipe could be the deepest Derby prep so far, with Sway Away, Jaycito, PrePeg, Albergatti, Runflatout and Comma To The Top (plus whomever else enters) all run as expected. That race figures to be a great betting race as well as a guide to help sort the pretenders from the pretenders.

News and Notes

• Awesome Patriot (who could also run in the San Felipe) has continually worked since his allowance win opening week, with his latest spin being on 2/28, going 6 furlongs in 1:13.20 at Santa Anita. This Baffert trainee has been on the sidelines, waiting for the right stake, either here or out of town
• Albergatti, pointed to the San Felipe, worked a steady five furlongs on 2/28 at Santa Anita, going 5 furlongs with 59.80.
• Jaycito worked towards his 2011 debut with a sparkling 5 furlong work on 2/28 at Santa Anita, coming home in 58.60, the third best of the day.
• Comma To The Top looking to bounce back from his poor effort in the El Camino Real Derby in the San Felipe, worked 5f at Hollywood Park on 2/28, sizzling home in 58.8, the 2nd best work of 37.
• Runflatout, who ran the fastest debut win EVER (according to the Illman blog) in his maiden win on Sunshine Millions day in January, worked on 2/28 7f in 1:24.20 at Santa Anita. He will make his stakes debut in the San Felipe.
• El Camino Real Derby winner Silver Medallion worked on 2/28 an easy 5 furlongs in 1:01.40. His next start is still up in the air.
• The Steve Asmussen trainee Astrology will point to the Rebel instead of the San Felipe, paving the way for Albergatti to stay here. (He is also the trainer of Silver Medallion and Albergatti.)
  

The Santa Anita Oaks has produced starters for the Santa Anita Derby in the past. The last runner to do so was Sweet Catomine, who lost in the Derby as the even money favorite after winning the Oaks in her previous start. Only one Triple Crown nominee, Turbulent Descent. The grade 1 Hollywood Starlet winner ran an okay second in first start of her 2011 campaign in the grade 1 Las Virgenes Stake, who was by Zazu, who she takes on once again. Zazu looks to keep her momentum going out of that race for her well-known owners Mr & Mrs. Jerry and Ann Moss. May Day Rose also comes out of that race, and looks to try to take them wire-to-wire once again. Another grade 1 winner also goes in the race in A Z Warrior. This daughter of Bernardini has not started since her off the board finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. She previously had won the grade 1 Frizette at Belmont Park. The only horse who has not won a stake, nor even started in one, is Kilograeme (right). This daughter of Graeme Hall won her debut race sprinting at the beginning of the meet, then came back and defeated the highly regarded Rumor in allowance race three weeks ago. She steps up into graded stakes company, and figures to get a good stalking trip sitting right behind May Day Rose if she can handle the the class hike.

So as the halfway point of the Santa Anita meet comes and goes, the picture still remains rather muddled on who will step up and be the one to attempt to end the drought. Will a filly step into the picture? Can those coming back return or surpass their previous form? We shall see. Good luck everybody.

Drought Report 2/9 - Robert B Lewis Stakes / El Camino Real Derby

This weekend brings two graded stakes that will go a long way in determining who will be "The Drought Breaker". At "The Great Race Place", 8 sophomores are entered in the Grade 2 Robert B Lewis worth $250k going a 1m & 1/8th. Up at Golden Gate Fields, 7 are entered the $200k Grade 3 El Camino Real Derby, also going a 1m & 1/8th. Also the first open first-level allowance on the dirt for the 3yos of the meet will be run on Friday, bringing together two of the more stylish maiden winners at the meet, Da Ruler and the filly Rumor.

Both the Robert B. Lewis and the El Camino Real have shared entrants in Comma to The Top and Anthony's Cross. Comma To The Top's connections said that they are leaning towards the El Camino Real Derby, and his work on Sunday (2/6) going a bullet 5 furlongs in 59.4 at Hollywood Park, the best of 34 works at the distance. Anthony's Cross, who ran third in the Sham, worked smartly since the race, finishing up his preparations on Sunday with a 5 furlong work going 59.60, (2nd best on the day) also at Hollywood Park. Comma To The Top's presence will have a larger effect on the El Camino Real, where he would be a heavy favorite to win and the big star of the race.

The Grade 3 El Camino Real Derby is one of the marquee races of the Golden Gate Fields meet, and it appears that one of the west coast's biggest three year old in Comma To The Top. As mentioned earlier, his connections have chosen this race as his 2011 debut. This will be the farthest he has ever raced in his career, and his lack of recency could leave him vulnerable. Comma To The Top earned the respect by winning the Real Quiet, G3 Generous and G1 Hollywood Futurity during the Hollywood Park autumn meet. This blog is intrigued by Silver Medallion. This Steve Asmussen-trained son of Badge of Silver won the Eddie Logan Stakes on New Year's Eve at Santa Anita going a mile on the grass. This blog speculated that he might switch to the main after the win, and it appears that he has landed in a good spot. He has a recency edge over the favorite, should have no problem with the distance, and the workout pattern is sharp. His last work was an easy 4 furlongs in 49.40 at Santa Anita on Monday, earning the rare "B" or "Breezing" designation for the work. This means that the horse was under no urging whatsoever during the work (this fact courtesy of the Illman blog). The "B" is rarely given out in SoCal, and it should be noted that Silver Medallion's last work before the Eddie Logan also received a "B". Also running is Positive Response, who has won the two local preps for this race, the Gold Rush Stakes and the California Derby.

Grade 2 Robert B. Lewis Stakes will have a good-looking three year old, even if Comma To The Top decides to head north, in Tapizar. This son of Tapit (right) won the Grade 3 Sham Stakes last month in gate-to-wire fashion, blowing the field off their feet. In the process, he ran more than a second faster than Indian Firewater did in the Grade 2 San Fernando Stakes for four year olds later on the card. This Asmussen charge looks to assert himself once again a strong contender for the Santa Anita Derby with a win. His last work was an easy four furlongs in 49 flat on Monday at Santa Anita, and like his stablemate, he earned a "B" designation. It would not be a derby prep race in Southern California without a Bob Baffert trainee, and he is represented by Wegner. This son of Dynaformer also plies his trade on the front end, as does the multiple graded-stakes placed Riveting Reason. Also in the field is Thirtyfirststreet, who will stretch out for the first time in the race off his win the CA Breeders' Champions Stakes on opening day.

News and Notes

• On Tuesday 2/8, San Pedro Stakes winner Indian Winter worked a bullet 6 furlongs in 1:13 (best of 10 workers) at Santa Anita in preparation for next start, which maybe the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes next Saturday (2/19).
• Jaycito worked on Monday 2/7 5 furlongs in 59.20 at Santa Anita, the 4th best work of 48.
• Astrology worked for the first time since arriving in Southern California for Steve Asmussen on Saturday 2/5. His first spin a tepid 4 furlongs in 52 seconds. He could be pointed to the San Felipe as well
• Premier Pegasus worked 5 furlongs in 1:01.60 at Santa Anita on Friday 2/4. He also could be pointed to the San Felipe.
• The Factor had his first official work (though he had been galloping long for a few weeks) since his scintillating win on opening day. He went 4 furlongs in an easy 48.2 at Hollywood Park on Tuesday (2/8)
• Lastly, the first open allowance on the dirt for either sex of the meet is set for Friday. It matches up the Baffert trainee Da Ruler (below left) and the Richard Mandella filly Rumor (below right). Rumor is in this race as a means to an end, since all attempts at a N1X for fillies only has failed to fill several times. Both have high ceilings when it comes to their futures, and let's hope that the race proves to be a good one for all parties involved.

VS.

















The stakes action begins in earnest this weekend, and the picture could become clearer after this weekend's stakes. A future star hopes to solidify his position on top, while the one on top attempts to maintain his position there. Should be some good action all weekend. Good luck everybody!

Drought Report - 2/2

As the calendar turns another page to the month of February, the day moves ever closer to determining who will be the "Drought Breaker". We will first talk about an impressive maiden winner in his debut that happened on Saturday, then we will provide some workouts and other notes.

On Saturday, race 2 at the Great Race Place, 6 three year olds lined up to go 6 furlongs. The two horses taking most of the wagering action was #1 Tokubetsu and #2 Runflatout. These two broke well, went right to the lead, with Tokubetsu getting a slight advantage. After a swift quarter mile, these two had already separated themselves from the rest of the field by a length and a half. After a half mile, these two were separated by a half length, and separated from the rest of the field by two and half lengths. Turning for home, they widen on the rest of the field, with Runflatout taking an advantage. By the time they hit the wire, Runflatout had won by 2 & 1/2 lengths over Tokubetsu, with another 8 & 1/2 lengths to the rest of the field. He covered the 6 furlongs in a swift 1:07.70. He is a son of Flatter, and was vying for favoritism for most of the betting. He appears to have a lot of talent, but is it too little, too late?

News and Notes

• This blog's choice to end the drought, the undefeated Premier Pegasus, finally put in a work since his victory in the Hollywood Prevue on Friday (1/28), working 4f in 47.20. No clue on what his first prep will be, but maybe the San Felipe S. on March 12th.
• Comma To The Top worked 7 furlongs on 1:24.60 at Hollywood Park on Monday (1/31) in preparation for the Robert B. Lewis S on February 12th.
• San Pedro Stakes winner Indian Winter worked 5 furlongs on Tuesday (2/1) at Santa Anita in 5 furlongs in 1:00.20, the 5th best of 30 works
• Jaycito worked the same morning, going 7 furlongs in 1:25.20. 
• The Factor has been galloping steadily towards his next start, which will be the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes on February 20th going 7 furlongs.
• On Thursday (2/3), Houston Harbor, who finished second to The Factor on opening day, comes back in a maiden special weight race going 1m & 1/16th in the 6th race. He drew the outside post #10 in the field.

Another week in the books, another week closer to finding out who will be the "Drought Breaker". Good luck folks.

Drought Report - First Scan of the Radar

The first 2+ weeks of the Santa Anita meet have past, and we have witnessed several strong performances from the newly minted three year olds. This post is the first of what will be a weekly series tracking the horses that look to break "The Drought". "The Drought" is what this blog is calling the 22-year gap since the last winner of the Santa Anita Derby went on to win the Kentucky Derby. This series will take a look at any three year-old races (whether maiden, allowance or stakes) that occur during the meet that show any promise of having a potential "Drought Breaker". It will also list some of the works of these horses. Since this is the initial post, it will be longer than normal, as there are 8 races to recap, plus two to preview. The races will be reviewed in chronological order, starting with opening day.

This review start off with the 3yo probably most well known, The Factor (pictured). He won the first maiden special weight of the meet in sizzling fashion, setting a track record for 6 furlongs in his 2nd lifetime start. He went to he front and just kept going in a gate-to-wire win. He has come back to work a swift 5 furlongs on 1/9 for trainer Bob Baffert, and is nominated for Monday's San Pedro Stakes. This blog wonders if he can get the 1m & 1/8, much less 1m &1/4. The runner-up Houston Harbor has also come back to work, with two steady spins at 4f & 5f. This Steve Asmussen trainee will look to break his maiden next time out, maybe at a route of ground.

The race after, Cal-breds squared off in the California Breeders Champions Stakes. Thirtyfirststreet rallied from well off the pace to win. Will his sire was a multiple GSW on the turf, he seemed to handle the turf just fine. His pedigree suggests that he should have no problem as the distances increase, as both sides of his pedigree say "route". While the time was not super-fast, it was a solid race. 31st St. has come back to work three furlongs, and may be pointed to the Robert B. Lewis going 1m & 1/16th on February 12th.

The following day had the card lead off with a maiden special weight going a mile, in a race that was scheduled for the turf but run on the main track. Uncle Sam sat just off the speed, made his move turning for home and won in workmanlike manner. He won it in an alright time, but not sure what he beat in that race. This Baffert trainee came back to work on Sunday an easy 5 furlongs, and looks to build off his debut win in his next start, which is the Grade 3 Sham Stakes this Saturday.

Wednesday brought an allowance race that scratched down to a compact field of three. Awesome Patriot ran to the lead, with G3-placed Riveting Reason sitting right off his flank. RR engaged AP and dueled with him for a good while, but AP prevailed in the end. There is not much you can glean from this race, other than maybe Riveting Reason is better on the lead. Awesome Patriot by (who else) Bob Baffert, and came back to work on the 9th (as most of Baffert's charges did), and may end up being the odd man out in the barn. This blog thinks AP is destined for OP for his next race.

New Year's Eve brought us the Eddie Logan Stakes going mile on the grass. The winner was Silver Medallion. This son of Badge of Silver rallied from just off the pace. While the win was on turf, he should be just fine on the dirt. He "worked" for Asmussen on the 9th (a very busy day), but it was the slowest of the day. since it was only 9 days after the race, the time was irrelevant, as it was clearly just a leg stretcher.

We now skip ahead to this last weekend, where two maiden special weight bookend the early pick 3. In the 1st race, Hollywood Heat sat off a speedball and perfect-tripped his way to an easy win under a handride going 5 & 1/2 furlongs. It was only a field of 5, and did take 6 starts for him to break his maiden, but it was in a good time. Two races later, a field of 8 runners went a mile. The gate-to-wire winner was Wegner, trained by (guess who?) Bob Baffert. Wegner had to work for the victory, while under some urging. Like all of Baffert's winners listed here, he was ridden by Rafael Bejarano. Unlike the others, Wegner was a fat 8-1 on the board in winning his fourth lifetime start. Being by Dynaformer out of a Seeking the Gold mare, he should have zero issues with the distance.

Sunday brought a 5 horse field going 7 furlongs. First time starter Kilograeme hugged the rail and wore down the heavy favorite right before the wire. This son of Graeme Hall made his debut a winning one. He should have no problems with the distance, but for him to be the "Drought Breaker", he would have to be the first horse since 1881 to win the derby while not running at two.


Now that the (extended) recap is over, on to the preview of this weekend's first derby preps of the meet, The Grade 3 Sham Stakes and the San Pedro Stakes. The Sham will be run at a mile and 1/16th. It drew a field of five. Uncle Sam (who we mentioned earlier) is Baffert's lone entrant, and breaks from post 2. Tapizar figures to be the favorite off of his huge maiden win last out at Churchill Downs going a mile & 1/16th. This Asmussen trainee won by 10 1/2 lengths, and acquires the services of top rider Garrett Gomez. On Monday, the San Pedro Stakes will be run. Baffert nominated 5 of the 14 nominees, including Awesome Patriot and The Factor, along with Sinai (pictured), who was a swift debut winner at Hollywood Park last month from the rail at this distance. The interesting horse (if he runs) is Arcadian. This son of Songandaprayer blitzed the field in the Lost in the Fog Stakes at Turf Paradise, and threw a bullet 6f work in the interim.

The search is on for the horse. The one horse who will find his way to the winner circle come April 9th. That horse will carry the hopes of ended the drought. Who will be... The Drought Breaker?