Belmont Stakes Thoughts, Undercard Picks, Other Stakes

The racing world was shocked this morning with the news that Derby & Preakness winner I'll Have Another has been withdrawn from the Belmont Stakes due to an injury. He hurt himself within the last two days of his training. The expected massive disappointed crowd will have 5 stakes appetizers (4 graded) to watch before the now deflated main event. This stakes run the gamut from sprinting on the dirt to long-distance routing on the turf. This blog will offer some brief thoughts about them, then the big race itself, then a brief word about the stakes action at Hollywood Park.

The first stake on the Belmont Stakes card is the Easy Goer Stakes for three year olds going 1m & 1/16th. Created to fill the hole in the all stakes P6 caused by the moving of the G1 Acorn to Memorial Day weekend. This race could be a barometer for the Belmont, as Teeth of the Dog comes out of a 5th place finish in the Preakness. Brimstone Island comes out of a 2nd in an allowance race on the Preakness undercard that Belmont Stakes entrant Paynter won. Skyring completes is his own triple crown, as he ran and won races on both the Derby and Preakness undercards. This race is a tough call because horses come in from several different races, making it hard to judge class levels. This blog has chased Skyring through victory and defeat in the past, but this is his 9th race this year, and sooner or later it has to catch up to him. This blog will pass on offering a selection.

The first graded stake on the card is the True North Handicap (6 furlongs). Five of the eight entrants have won a graded stakes in the last year. Giant Ryan won the Grade 1 Vosburgh last year over this very track. After a failed attempt over in Dubai, he comes back to the states in this race. Smiling Tiger is the morning line favorite in his second race back from an eight plus month layoff. He usually runs better first off the layoff than in the 2nd race back, but he ran very poorly last time out. Hamazing Destiny broke a twenty month losing streak last time out winning the G3 Maryland Sprint Handicap. Like his stablemates Skyring & Belmont entrant Optimizer, he is completing the undercard triple crown. Royal Currier has made his connections a nice living picking off ungraded stakes, but can he handle the step up to graded company this time? This blog is skipping this race as well, as it is a real headscratcher.

The Just A Game is the first Grade 1 on the card and the first leg of the guaranteed $1 million Pick 4. This blog is going to take a stand both against Winter Memories and Hungry Island. Winter Memories has many, many fans as she has overcome some questionable rides to win with a late flourish.But this blog feels she is better around two whole turns than the one-& 1/16th turn the one mile distance is run at Belmont. She figures to be once again at depressed odds. The stand against Hungry Island is a tenuous one as she just won a nice turf stakes on the Derby undercard at this distance. This blog just has a hunch that she will regress on the turn back to from two turns and off a career best race. The two who will be on the Pick 4 ticket are Wallis (the pick) and Sylvestris. Wallis comes off a 5 month layoff after tiring going slightly further in a Grade 3. The cutback to one-turn and to a flat mile will definitely help her. She has an abbreviated worktab but her trainer C. Clement has good numbers off the layoff. Sylvestris stretches off a smashing win over this course going seven furlongs last out. Mike Smith picks up the mount and appears to be on the improve.

The G3 Woody Stephens (7 furlongs) is so hard to handicap that this blog suggests that the reader use as many as he/she can afford. (It's so hard the blog can't even come up with token analysis!)

The Grade 1 Manhattan brings together an interesting lot, including a Southern California invader. The speed of this rather paceless race figures to be Hudson Steele. Coming off a win in the Grade 2 Dixie last out, he stretches out further than he has ever ran before in ten furlongs. His trainer Todd Pletcher has won many Grade 1 in his career, but this race has alluded him. The tenth furlong figures to be his downfall based on his sire, though with the possible easy fractions he could set, it may be within his grasp.Omayad (Chi) is the Southern California invader, choosing to go here instead of staying home for the Charles Whittingham Handicap under the same conditions (but a smaller purse). He won multiple grade 1 races in his native Chile. He had a solid comeback race in his North American debut last time out, though the 3rd place finisher lost a claiming race next time out and the 4th place finisher was well beaten in the American Handicap. This blog feels that Omayad might be the best horse going forward but not today. Brilliant Speed comes out of a good third behind an easy lead gate-to-wire winner in the Woodford Reserve on the Derby undercard. That race looks to be very strong in spite of the winner's trip. He has three snappy workouts since the race and he is the pick.

The complexion of the Belmont Stakes changed with the scratch of I'll Have Another. The probable crowd size will dramatically shrink with no triple crown in the line, which will help the chances of one horse in particular. Paynter is the one horse I thought had the talent to beat I'll Have Another in the Belmont if you had asked me three weeks ago. My biggest reservation with him is that after see him school multiple times over the winter live (and on video before the triple crown races is that he doesn't seem to be all there mentally. Maybe it is his lack of seasoning or he is just that type of horse, but he seems to let little things affect him. This is bad news as he will need all the energy he can save for the grueling twelve furlongs. Union Rags will be heavily backed by his rabid fan base, but this blog's feelings have not changed about him since the Derby. The same reasons this blog did not like him in the Derby (distance, inability to handle traffic) still apply. He will via for favoritism with Dullahan. Dullahan has only two wins, both on Polytrack, but closed with a rush to finish third in the Kentucky Derby. He seems to fit the mold of a classic "Garbage Collector" type. The term was created after this writer's betting of Denis of Cork, who ran 3rd in the Derby and 2nd in the Belmont in 2008. In both of those races, this writer was certain going into the respective races that Denis of Cork would finished where they ended up finishing, and played those races accordingly. This blog will be playing Dullahan in the same way, keying him for 2nd. For a bomber, Atigun might be worth a flier. He is bred to be okay at the distance, comes off a win and has been training at Belmont for the last month.

Possible $1m guaranteed all stakes Pick 4 ticket:
Leg 1: Wallis, Sylvestris
Leg 2: ALL
Leg 3: Brilliant Speed
Leg 4: Atigun, Paynter (for now)
Cost: $20 (for a .50 base)

Patrons who head out to Hollywood Park to watch the Belmont Stakes there via simulcast will get to see three stakes, including the Grade 1 Whittingham Memorial Handicap. Two-time defending champion Acclamation goes for 3rd win in a row, but he will have to get through Slim Shadey (who is the pick and the best bet the whole weekend for this blog), who comes off a good 2nd in the Woodford Reserve on the Derby Day undercard. Two stakes for three year old grass fillies are also on tap. Possibly the best 3yo turf filly in the nation Lady of Shamrock headlines the 1m 1/8th G2 Honeymoon Handicap, a prep for the G1 American Oaks next month. Three races later, the turf sprinters get in the act with Manhattan Beach Stakes.


So there is a look at the action on a big day of action. It is not as epic a day as it was looking it would be, but nonetheless a day filled with stakes action. Good luck folks.

Where to Take A Stand on the Belmont Stakes

Betting the 2012 Belmont Stakes is all about taking stands. Taking a stand with or against I'll Have Another being the twelfth Triple Crown winner in U.S. racing history. Taking a stand on whether Union Rags can bounce back from his disappointing effort in the Kentucky Derby. Taking a stand about how much impact any of the new shooters will have on the final leg of the Triple Crown. All of these stands will be based on however the reader handicaps the race and the opinions formed about the horses. To aid you in this process, the chart below lists the top 3 finishers in the Belmont the last twelve years at selected points of call during the race, as well as the post time odds.



The charts show some interesting statistics. First, it shows that until the far turn, the winner and the 2nd-place finisher are likely to be within a length of each other for the first two-thirds of the race. This has been the case three of the last five years (2007, 2010, 2011). Also, only once in the last twelve years has the winner been further than six lengths back after a half-mile (Jazil, 2006). Both of these facts could be considered a negative for Dullahan's chances, but a positive for those who fancy any combination of I'll Have Another, Paynter and Union Rags.

The two most interesting points the chart points out is that the 3rd place finisher tends to lose ground to the leaders going down the backstretch. This makes sense as horses are faster on the straightaway than the turn, leading to more separation of the field. The other thing that catches the eye is that the average odds for the second place finisher is considerably lower than the winner or the 3rd place finisher. This could be a positive for those who will key any of the four lowest odds horses underneath in the place spot.

As with all data, this chart is up to interpretation, but hopefully it will help aid in the cashing of many, many tickets. Good luck this Saturday folks.

Drought Report 2012 - Santa Anita Derby

The big one of the meet is finally upon the Great Race Place. The Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby is the local prep for the Kentucky Derby next month. Such past horses as Sunday Silence, Point Given, A.P. Indy and Affirmed have won this race on their way to later greatness. The last horse to win a Triple Crown race after running in the race is dual champion Lookin at Lucky, who finished 3rd in 2010, then went on the win the Preakness. The last horse to run in the Santa Anita Derby and win the Kentucky Derby was Giacomo in 2005, who was 4th in Arcadia before being first in Louisville. It has been 23 years since a horse has won the Santa Anita Derby and gone on to wear the roses, all the way back in 1989 when Sunday Silence pulled the double. That drought is the longest among ANY of the major preps, and the reason this blog calls the search for the Santa Anita Derby winner the "Drought Report". This year's group of ten runners stretch from a grade 1 winner to a horse with just one start.

The favorite is the multiple graded stakes winner Creative Cause. The winner of the last prep for today's race, the San Felipe, he has been on top of the local division for many months. He built off his 3rd in the San Vicente Stakes to win that race. His works since that race have shown plenty of life and that he has plenty of energy in the tank. His pedigree does not suggests that the nine furlongs of the race will be a problem at all. The only member of the field who is guaranteed a spot in the gate come the first Saturday of May due to his significant graded stakes earnings, so that must be taken into account on whether he will be ridden all out for the win. This idea is bolstered by the fact that his trainer Mike Harrington decided to take the blinkers off of him for the first time in his career. Better to experiment now rather than in the biggest race of the year. With the blinker removal, will Creative Cause be further back than normal off the pace.

I'll Have Another shocked the world when he rocked the field in a stylish win in the Robert B. Lewis at 43-1 two months ago. His connections decided that he needed rest to combat the big effort, pointing to this race since the win. He has several solid works, including a dazzling workout in between races on Santa Anita Handicap day. His trainer Doug O'Neill is high on his charge as O'Neill looks for his first win ever in the race. His pedigree suggests that the extra distance will not be a hint of a problem, as his family is filled with stamina-filled types. He needs a decent chunk of graded stakes earnings to earn a spot in the Kentucky Derby gate with only $151k in the kitty so far. A first or second would guarantee a trip, but a 3rd place finish ($90k) will lead to a few sleepless nights from worrying.

Bob Baffert fires three bullets in an attempt to add to his record 6 wins in this race with Liaison, Paynter and Blueskiesnrainbows. Liasion is the only one of the three to have any graded stakes earnings whatsoever, and he has enough to have already secured a spot in the gate next month. He has slowly been coming along this year,  rebounding from a poor effort (before he fell) in the Lewis with a decent 4th in San Felipe. He seems to have maybe not progressed from his stellar 2yo efforts, but he will get the chance to change that perception. Paynter has but one flashy start at five and half furlongs 7 weeks ago. He worked mostly across town (usually not a good sign) since the race. This feels like "too much, too soon" for a colt who looks like he has a bright future. The way he acted up while schooling this week leads one to believe he would appreciate the time to grow up mentally. Blueskiesnrainbows comes off a drubbing two months ago in an allowance race won by his stablemate Fed Biz. He appears to be in the race as a pace presence.

The others are Longview Drive ( 3rd in the Sham, lacks a real running style); Senor Rain (distance limitations, pace presence); Midnight Transfer (3rd in San Felipe, working well but has physical make-up of a sprinter/miler) and Brother Francis (Still a maiden, but has over $120k in graded earnings).

This blog thinks that Blueskiesnrainbows and Senor Rain duel on the front end, I'll Have Another earns another great trip and kicks clear turning for home. Creative Cause ends up second, with Liaison and Midnight Transfer fighting for third.







This figures to be a good race, and whomever ends up winning will carry the mantle of the "Drought Breaker" to Kentucky to end the near quarter-century drought. Good luck folks.