Betting the 2012 Belmont Stakes is all about taking stands. Taking a stand with or against I'll Have Another being the twelfth Triple Crown winner in U.S. racing history. Taking a stand on whether Union Rags can bounce back from his disappointing effort in the Kentucky Derby. Taking a stand about how much impact any of the new shooters will have on the final leg of the Triple Crown. All of these stands will be based on however the reader handicaps the race and the opinions formed about the horses. To aid you in this process, the chart below lists the top 3 finishers in the Belmont the last twelve years at selected points of call during the race, as well as the post time odds.
The charts show some interesting statistics. First, it shows that until the far turn, the winner and the 2nd-place finisher are likely to be within a length of each other for the first two-thirds of the race. This has been the case three of the last five years (2007, 2010, 2011). Also, only once in the last twelve years has the winner been further than six lengths back after a half-mile (Jazil, 2006). Both of these facts could be considered a negative for Dullahan's chances, but a positive for those who fancy any combination of I'll Have Another, Paynter and Union Rags.
The two most interesting points the chart points out is that the 3rd place finisher tends to lose ground to the leaders going down the backstretch. This makes sense as horses are faster on the straightaway than the turn, leading to more separation of the field. The other thing that catches the eye is that the average odds for the second place finisher is considerably lower than the winner or the 3rd place finisher. This could be a positive for those who will key any of the four lowest odds horses underneath in the place spot.
As with all data, this chart is up to interpretation, but hopefully it will help aid in the cashing of many, many tickets. Good luck this Saturday folks.
Showing posts with label Belmont Park. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Belmont Park. Show all posts
Monday, June 4, 2012
Wednesday, October 20, 2010
The Solo SoCal Shipper in for Super Saturday Weekend (Part 2)
(Forgive me for taking this long to post this, but schoolwork caught up with me in a big way, forcing this blog to step aside to address it. Here is the second half of my Belmont adventure)
Day 2 of Super Saturday weekend was an different kind of experience compared to Saturday. For one, this blog was not going to Belmont by car, but by public transportation. This blog would try to catch up with someone who he had missed on Super Saturday.. This blog would try to enjoy the majesty and wonder that is Belmont Park, something that couldn’t be done the day before with the helter-skelter schedule that end up being Super Saturday. Finally, this blog would travel the city alone in search of someone.
The day started with this blog and Connie figuring out our plan of attack on how to get all the way from Newark to Belmont Park. While this blog is well-versed in the so-so public transportation system in Los Angeles, this would be a whole other experience. With directions provided by Cory, we were off from the hotel. We took the hotel shuttle back to the airport, where we caught the bus to Newark Penn Station. From there, we caught the PATH over the river into Manhattan. After a quick trip on the LIRR and a one stop ride on the subway, it was one more bus to Belmont Park. The bus went into the track, stopping right next to where the LIRR stop is for Belmont Park. (Which sadly only is used on Belmont Stakes day.) The strangest part of the trip was the fact that you can eat on the subway and buses in New York, something you cannot do in Los Angeles. The entire system puts L.A.'s to shame.
Once Connie and this blog arrived at Belmont, we went our separate ways, only occasionally touching base with each other throughout the day. This blog ran Teresa (@bklynbckstretch) and we had a good chat and she provided me with the key piece of information on how to travel the city alone to get to that someone. I took advantage of the less-crowded conditions and walked around the facility. Belmont is such a beautiful facility. Walking around the backyard, this blog soaked in the convivial atmosphere that must exist when it is packed with people. (The weather was rather brisk and conspired against it being as full). Walking around the immense grandstand, discovering the nooks and crannies were people hang out, each with their own visible atmosphere, was a great experience.
The 3 co-features on the day were the Grade 2 Kelso at a mile on the main track, the Grade 3 Miss Grillo for 2yo fillies on the grass going a 1m & 1/16th, and the Grade 3 Pilgrim for 2yo males on the inner turf at the same 1m & 1/16th distance. Air Support won the Pilgrim, and Tizway won the Kelso. The star of the day was the winner of the Miss Grillo, Winter Memories. She won from the outside post with an impressive turn of foot, prevailing with ease. Her connections were very excited after the race and she looks like a filly with a future. After the Kelso, this blog got a chance to catch up with Joe (@Joe_Depaolo), who this blog had seen the day before but did not have a chance to talk with at length. We had a good chat, and after the last race, this blog met back up with Connie and headed back on our journey to the hotel.
After taking a bus back to the subway stop, we discovered that there was a quicker way back to the city, by taking one train all the way back to Manhattan. There this blog said my goodbye to Connie, and proceeded to kill a little time in hoping that the guy I hoped to talk to the entire trip would call me back so I could go meet up with him. After an agonizing 45 minutes, he left me a message saying to meet him. Using the tips Teresa gave me, this blog was able to get down there in no time. The person I had hoped to talk to is none other than Ernie Munick, a world-class guy, creator of a great community on Facebook called Thoroughbred Racing in New York (TRNY) and currently doing great work for BreedersCup360.com with his "E Train" segments. This blog saw him several times during the day on Saturday, but was unable to get close enough to get his attention. Even though it was just a brief 20-minute conversation covering a wide swath of racing topics while under the subway awning to hide from the rain, it was worth it.
As this blog worked its way back to the hotel in the inclement weather late at night, time was taken to think about what this weekend meant, both from a horse racing standpoint and a personal standpoint. From a racing standpoint, Life At Ten solidified her spot as the second bet older female in the country; Winter Memories could be a future star in the making, and Blame ran a good race, lost, but did nothing to impair my love for him. Plus, all the loss did was help his price grow come post time for the Classic. On a personal level, this blog did several things that at this time last year would have been inconceivable. Going on a trip alone, flying cross-country, staying with someone they had never met before all were new experiences that will be cherished for until the end of time. What will the future hold for this blog? Who knows. But the journey will be the most enjoyable part.
Day 2 of Super Saturday weekend was an different kind of experience compared to Saturday. For one, this blog was not going to Belmont by car, but by public transportation. This blog would try to catch up with someone who he had missed on Super Saturday.. This blog would try to enjoy the majesty and wonder that is Belmont Park, something that couldn’t be done the day before with the helter-skelter schedule that end up being Super Saturday. Finally, this blog would travel the city alone in search of someone.
The day started with this blog and Connie figuring out our plan of attack on how to get all the way from Newark to Belmont Park. While this blog is well-versed in the so-so public transportation system in Los Angeles, this would be a whole other experience. With directions provided by Cory, we were off from the hotel. We took the hotel shuttle back to the airport, where we caught the bus to Newark Penn Station. From there, we caught the PATH over the river into Manhattan. After a quick trip on the LIRR and a one stop ride on the subway, it was one more bus to Belmont Park. The bus went into the track, stopping right next to where the LIRR stop is for Belmont Park. (Which sadly only is used on Belmont Stakes day.) The strangest part of the trip was the fact that you can eat on the subway and buses in New York, something you cannot do in Los Angeles. The entire system puts L.A.'s to shame.
Once Connie and this blog arrived at Belmont, we went our separate ways, only occasionally touching base with each other throughout the day. This blog ran Teresa (@bklynbckstretch) and we had a good chat and she provided me with the key piece of information on how to travel the city alone to get to that someone. I took advantage of the less-crowded conditions and walked around the facility. Belmont is such a beautiful facility. Walking around the backyard, this blog soaked in the convivial atmosphere that must exist when it is packed with people. (The weather was rather brisk and conspired against it being as full). Walking around the immense grandstand, discovering the nooks and crannies were people hang out, each with their own visible atmosphere, was a great experience.
The 3 co-features on the day were the Grade 2 Kelso at a mile on the main track, the Grade 3 Miss Grillo for 2yo fillies on the grass going a 1m & 1/16th, and the Grade 3 Pilgrim for 2yo males on the inner turf at the same 1m & 1/16th distance. Air Support won the Pilgrim, and Tizway won the Kelso. The star of the day was the winner of the Miss Grillo, Winter Memories. She won from the outside post with an impressive turn of foot, prevailing with ease. Her connections were very excited after the race and she looks like a filly with a future. After the Kelso, this blog got a chance to catch up with Joe (@Joe_Depaolo), who this blog had seen the day before but did not have a chance to talk with at length. We had a good chat, and after the last race, this blog met back up with Connie and headed back on our journey to the hotel.
After taking a bus back to the subway stop, we discovered that there was a quicker way back to the city, by taking one train all the way back to Manhattan. There this blog said my goodbye to Connie, and proceeded to kill a little time in hoping that the guy I hoped to talk to the entire trip would call me back so I could go meet up with him. After an agonizing 45 minutes, he left me a message saying to meet him. Using the tips Teresa gave me, this blog was able to get down there in no time. The person I had hoped to talk to is none other than Ernie Munick, a world-class guy, creator of a great community on Facebook called Thoroughbred Racing in New York (TRNY) and currently doing great work for BreedersCup360.com with his "E Train" segments. This blog saw him several times during the day on Saturday, but was unable to get close enough to get his attention. Even though it was just a brief 20-minute conversation covering a wide swath of racing topics while under the subway awning to hide from the rain, it was worth it.
As this blog worked its way back to the hotel in the inclement weather late at night, time was taken to think about what this weekend meant, both from a horse racing standpoint and a personal standpoint. From a racing standpoint, Life At Ten solidified her spot as the second bet older female in the country; Winter Memories could be a future star in the making, and Blame ran a good race, lost, but did nothing to impair my love for him. Plus, all the loss did was help his price grow come post time for the Classic. On a personal level, this blog did several things that at this time last year would have been inconceivable. Going on a trip alone, flying cross-country, staying with someone they had never met before all were new experiences that will be cherished for until the end of time. What will the future hold for this blog? Who knows. But the journey will be the most enjoyable part.
Wednesday, October 6, 2010
The Solo SoCal Shipper in for Super Saturday weekend (Part 1)
Last weekend was an action-packed, stakes-filled time of racing. This blog decided that it would think outside of the box about where to see all of the Breeders' Cup preps. One would assume that a huge horse racing fan who is based in Southern California would be plenty satisfied with the grade 1 extravaganza that was being offered by the Oak Tree @ Hollywood Park meet. With the venerable Zenyatta as its star attraction, why would one want to be anywhere else?
Yet this blog wanted more. This blog wanted to experience something new, somewhere new. The chance to see not one but two of "Ten's Top T-Breds" in person for the first, and maybe only, time in their racing career(s) proved to be too irresistible of a siren's call to ignore. This blog went right on by Hollywood Park to LAX and hopped on a flight headed to New York. Final destination: Belmont Park.
Now this was no ordinary trip to the track for this blog. Not only had it never been on a flight by himself, it had not been East of the Rockies nor to a race track outside of California. Plus, it would be this blog's first time meeting with large groups of people from several different forms of social media. Add in sharing a hotel room with a non-family member and all of these firsts just added to the anxiety of taking this trip.
After an easy flight across the country, this blog landed on Friday night, where it met up with Connie (aka MsVFAB on Twitter) at the airport, who flew in from Cleveland and a fellow member of Team Blame, a group of "tweeps" who believe Blame will win the Breeders' Cup Classic. We even have custom made t-shirts to show our loyalty. (Connie is also an ardent Fly Down supporter, and was crushed over his sale to Saudi owner for fear of him never returning to the U.S. after this year.) The next morning, fellow Team Blame member Derek (NJDerek), who gave us a ride to Belmont from the hotel both ways. After a smooth, traffic-free ride, we arrived at Belmont just after the gates opened. This blog had two separate groups from two sources of social media to meet that day. One was from Twitter and the other from the TVG Community (TVGC) site, which had provided hats for this blog to distribute to the other members who were scheduled to be there. (Throughout the rest of the card, I ping-ponged between the two groups, probably at a detriment to better social interaction among me and either group.)
After saying hello and looking at the horses in the paddock for the first with the TVGC group, this blog watched the first from Belmont from the apron right at the finish line. It was a winning one, as Ya Gotta Have Soul came from just off the pace to take the victory. As the card moved forward, members from both groups filed in, with this blog meeting up with fellow Team Blame members Dylan (DylanTWM), Steve (stmunday), Bryan (ghostzapper04) and Kevin (CollinsGhost). All of them were good to meet and easy to talk with. Near the midpoint of the card, I was lucky to met the wonderful Sid (SidFernando). This was one of the highlights of the trip, as Sid is such a knowledgeable person of the sport and a great guy. With him was the (as Kevin kept calling him) "World Famous" o_crunk (real name Chris), who just coming off his well-received editorial in Thoroughbred Times.
The day went on with some highs (Life At Ten returning to form) and some lows (the camera breaking as the field of the Hirsch left the paddock). Then the big race came, the Jockey Club Gold Cup. This blog finally got to see its top horse in person, and it was worth the trip. Too bad the outcome of the race wasn't as Haynesfield snuck away to a lonely lead and won, disappointing Team Blame. But the team knows that this loss was an aberration and will only lead to higher price comes Breeders' Cup Classic time.
After the card, some of us filed into the clubhouse to watch the Lady's Secret. While there, Ian (ianlozada) managed to find those who were left of Team Blame, plus Sid. Ian had promised this blog quality pizza (something that this blog knows does not exists in Los Angeles.), so after the race Connie, Sid, Ian, Derek and I went off for pizza (having said our goodbyes to Steve and Dylan, who chose to stay a little longer to watch the Goodwood). We ate at Grimaldi's (which has now completely ruined pizza for me out here, as nothing is even close). Ian took some pictures of us (with Sid taking the ones with Ian in them).
After we all said are goodbyes and Derek drove us back to the hotel, my mind started to think about what I saw that day and what laid in store tomorrow. I went to bed even more certain (if that's possible), that Blame would avenge in the Classic, that Life at Ten was back to form, and most importantly, that i made the right decision in coming. Now, how did i handle taking public transportation to Belmont from Newark? Who else did i meet? That will have to wait until tomorrow...
Yet this blog wanted more. This blog wanted to experience something new, somewhere new. The chance to see not one but two of "Ten's Top T-Breds" in person for the first, and maybe only, time in their racing career(s) proved to be too irresistible of a siren's call to ignore. This blog went right on by Hollywood Park to LAX and hopped on a flight headed to New York. Final destination: Belmont Park.
Now this was no ordinary trip to the track for this blog. Not only had it never been on a flight by himself, it had not been East of the Rockies nor to a race track outside of California. Plus, it would be this blog's first time meeting with large groups of people from several different forms of social media. Add in sharing a hotel room with a non-family member and all of these firsts just added to the anxiety of taking this trip.
After an easy flight across the country, this blog landed on Friday night, where it met up with Connie (aka MsVFAB on Twitter) at the airport, who flew in from Cleveland and a fellow member of Team Blame, a group of "tweeps" who believe Blame will win the Breeders' Cup Classic. We even have custom made t-shirts to show our loyalty. (Connie is also an ardent Fly Down supporter, and was crushed over his sale to Saudi owner for fear of him never returning to the U.S. after this year.) The next morning, fellow Team Blame member Derek (NJDerek), who gave us a ride to Belmont from the hotel both ways. After a smooth, traffic-free ride, we arrived at Belmont just after the gates opened. This blog had two separate groups from two sources of social media to meet that day. One was from Twitter and the other from the TVG Community (TVGC) site, which had provided hats for this blog to distribute to the other members who were scheduled to be there. (Throughout the rest of the card, I ping-ponged between the two groups, probably at a detriment to better social interaction among me and either group.)
After saying hello and looking at the horses in the paddock for the first with the TVGC group, this blog watched the first from Belmont from the apron right at the finish line. It was a winning one, as Ya Gotta Have Soul came from just off the pace to take the victory. As the card moved forward, members from both groups filed in, with this blog meeting up with fellow Team Blame members Dylan (DylanTWM), Steve (stmunday), Bryan (ghostzapper04) and Kevin (CollinsGhost). All of them were good to meet and easy to talk with. Near the midpoint of the card, I was lucky to met the wonderful Sid (SidFernando). This was one of the highlights of the trip, as Sid is such a knowledgeable person of the sport and a great guy. With him was the (as Kevin kept calling him) "World Famous" o_crunk (real name Chris), who just coming off his well-received editorial in Thoroughbred Times.
The day went on with some highs (Life At Ten returning to form) and some lows (the camera breaking as the field of the Hirsch left the paddock). Then the big race came, the Jockey Club Gold Cup. This blog finally got to see its top horse in person, and it was worth the trip. Too bad the outcome of the race wasn't as Haynesfield snuck away to a lonely lead and won, disappointing Team Blame. But the team knows that this loss was an aberration and will only lead to higher price comes Breeders' Cup Classic time.
After the card, some of us filed into the clubhouse to watch the Lady's Secret. While there, Ian (ianlozada) managed to find those who were left of Team Blame, plus Sid. Ian had promised this blog quality pizza (something that this blog knows does not exists in Los Angeles.), so after the race Connie, Sid, Ian, Derek and I went off for pizza (having said our goodbyes to Steve and Dylan, who chose to stay a little longer to watch the Goodwood). We ate at Grimaldi's (which has now completely ruined pizza for me out here, as nothing is even close). Ian took some pictures of us (with Sid taking the ones with Ian in them).
After we all said are goodbyes and Derek drove us back to the hotel, my mind started to think about what I saw that day and what laid in store tomorrow. I went to bed even more certain (if that's possible), that Blame would avenge in the Classic, that Life at Ten was back to form, and most importantly, that i made the right decision in coming. Now, how did i handle taking public transportation to Belmont from Newark? Who else did i meet? That will have to wait until tomorrow...
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