Showing posts with label Life at Ten. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Life at Ten. Show all posts

Saturday, May 21, 2011

Preakness Card Stakes Thoughts

The middle jewel of the Triple Crown is upon us. Animal Kingdom carries the hopes of a nation that he can end the drought that has stricken us since Affirmed in 1978 of a Triple crown winner. The undercard has some solid races with some past Grade 1 winners, some hopeful up-and-comers and good betting opportunities. Ranging from a pair of 6 furlong sprints all the way to the mile and three-sixteenths of the Preakness, this figures to be a good day of racing. Let's start with the race for the fillies and mares going a mile and one-sixteenth.

The Alliare Dupont Distaff marks the return to graded stakes company for multiple grade one winner Life At Ten. After a so-so second in her 2011 debut going one turn at Gulfstream. Returning to two-turns, she towers over this field on class. The only concern is that she may have lost something after that debacle in the Breeders' Cup and maybe Father Time has caught up with her a bit. Her main danger is Payton D'Oro. Her biggest win was 2009 Black-Eyed Susan right her at this track. She ran a so-so third in her only start this year, and that was her first start in the year. She's worked well for trainer Larry Jones, but she also may have lost a step. Decelerator figures to be winging on the front end.

Two races later brings together 3yo sprinters in the Chick Lang Stakes going 6 furlongs. This is the second leg of the guaranteed $250k Early Pick 4. (This blog thinks that #8 Easy Ashley is a single in the first leg of the Pick 4). This is a tough race as contention runs deep. Ghost Is Clear just quit last time, for some reason, but has come back to work well, and has several sprint races which would be competitive. Chipshot comes in third off the layoff with a bullet work in tow. Escort just quit on the Poly last time, has worked well since, and has power couple Pletcher/Velazquez behind him. Venegeful Wildcat has two narrow losses this year against similar. Road Ready will be coming out of the clouds, but can he get up in time?

Next up is the James W Murphy for three year olds on the lawn going a mile. This looks like a three horse race between: Lil Bit O'Fun, who gets some class relief after meeting the best turf 3yos in the country last out; Humble and Hungry gets back on turf in his second start of the year and acquires the services of Garrett Gomez; and Joes Blazing Aaron, who won the Grade 3 Palm Beach two back in gate-to-wire fashion. These three tower over the rest of the field.

The last race of the early Pick 4 is Grade 3 Maryland Sprint. The heavy favorite figures to be the SoCal based Ventana. He has banged heads with some of the best sprinters on the west coast, but always seems to come out on the short end. This blog believes that he is slightly better at a distance a half-furlong longer than today's distance, which makes him very vulnerable. Nathan's H Q is a true speedball, but he is inside speed, and he looks that he will have the lead turning for home. If he can shake free, he is a danger to lead gate-to-wire. China comes back in 17 days after a solid second behind a gunner in the oft-injured but very talented Irrefutable. He threw a swift workout in the interim and could be sitting on a huge effort. He'll be sitting just off the pace.

The start of the guaranteed $1 million dollar late Pick 4 starts with the Grade 3 Galorette Handicap. The highweight and favorite is Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf winner Shared Account. This is her first race since her huge upset win in the BC, and she has been training steadily for her trainer Graham Motion. She ran 4th in this race last year off a similar layoff. This looks like a good time to take a stand against her at short odds, and the horse to take advantage is No Explaining. She won last out in solid turf race at Keeneland in good time. She ships down for her trainer Roger Attfield from her Woodbine home base, which is saying something since Woodbine offers a race at a similar distance two weeks from now for three times the purse. She retains top jock John Velazquez in the irons, who will keep her mid-pack, looking to get a jump on the favorite. She will enjoy any give in the ground as well. The 10 pound difference in weight in favor of No Explaining can't hurt either.

The William Donald Schaefer and the Dixie have a horse cross-entered in Eighttofasttocatch. If he runs in the Schaefer, as is the most likely scenario, he rates a solid chance, but he must defeat a much deeper, but not necessarily stronger, field. Colizeo (looking to bounce back after an no excuse third in the Grade 3 Skip Away), Pleasant Prince (first race since getting crushed in the BC Classic and his second race against older), Icabad Crane (has a win over the track and ran third in the Preakness three years ago) and Apart (Trying to follow in former barnmate Blame's footsteps, though he has nowhere near the killer instinct of the champion older male).

If “Eight” does go in the Dixie, his main obstacle is Paddy O'Prado. This multiple graded stakes winner was the king of the three year-olds on turf, winning 4 stakes an finishing 2nd against older in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic before getting beaten by 5 ½ in the BC Classic. He makes his 2011 debut in the Dixie, and brings a solid series of works into the race. This maybe the best time to beat him, as this race is clearly a means to an end for bigger and better things later on in the year. He is carrying the same amount of weight as the others, which gives him a clear advantage over the field. Hopefully “Eight” stays in this race, as he looks to be one with a chance to upset the heavy favorite at a big price.

This leaves the big one, the Preakness. Now this blog admits that the Kentucky Derby was an unmitigated disaster, but the struggle to find a pick, let alone a key in the exotics, portended doom from the beginning. After regrouping, seeing what went wrong and admitting that the selections have been very hit or miss with this lot this year, a renewed enthusiasm for the race came on. Now, the pick for today is not to win, but to place. That is because this horse s probably not good enough to win, but under the right circumstances he can light up the tote at a big number. That horse is Norman Asbjornson. He ran 4th in the Wood after running 2nd in the Gotham. His sire won this race back in 1998, and he has solid local connections. He's had two stamina building workouts in the interim and has made a solid appearance in the mornings. He's slowly improved with every race, with this being his third off the layoff. If his jockey can time the move just right, maybe he grind his way to second.

So the Preakness is upon us. Can Animal Kingdom keep his Triple Crown hopes alive? Will Someone end them instead? Can Shared Account and Paddy O'Prado return off the layoff to their previous form? We shall see. Good luck everybody!

Thursday, November 4, 2010

Breeders' Cup Friday Thoughts

Breeders’ Cup Friday is the first day of the World Championships. Today is mostly devoted for the ladies, with the five championship races for the females, but the Cup races will start off with the Marathon. There are other races on the undercard, but this blog will mention only the one precedent the Breeders’ Cup races, the Grade 3 Ack Ack Handicap, then delve into the BC races. This blog has done well on the undercard, and cannot resist pointing out a horse that could be a future star in the making. We shall start with that race.

(Don’t forget to enter the “Off The Board” contest run by this blog. So much fun for chucking a low-odds horse it shouldn’t be legal!)

Ack Ack Handicap – Grade 3 – 1m & 1/16th
This race has some upcoming three year-olds and a couple of wily veterans. The defending champion returns in this race in #4 Demarcation, although the distance was only a mile last year. He ran alright last time out, and picks up jockey Calvin Borel. He appears to have a tough task ahead of him versus three improving three-year olds. The morning line favorite, and the selection for this blog, is #1 Apart. This son of Flatter has been training in the morning with the best horse in the Al Stall Jr. barn, Blame, who is the 2nd choice in the Breeders’ Cup Classic tomorrow. He has been holding his own in the morning and is ready for his first race against older. #2 Colizeo won last out over #6 Jackson Bend, who was returning off the layoff. Colizeo likes this track, having won 2 of 3 races at Churchill Downs. He drew off to a nice win on that day, and should be on the lead. Jackson Bend should stalk him. Both have worked well in the interim. The other two in the field are the other two elder statesmen in the race, #2 Stream Cat and #3 Silver Edition. Stream Cat comes in off a year layoff and this has all the makings of a prep race for him. Silver Edition stretches out for the first time in a while, and looks to be overmatched.

Selections: Apart / Colizeo / Jackson Bend (maybe a straight trifecta to maximize value?)

Now we hit the Breeders’ Cup races. First up is the Marathon, going a mile and three-quarters on the main track.

Breeders’ Cup Marathon – Grade 3 – 1m & ¾
The morning line favorite is the Grade 1 winning #7 Awesome Gem. This gelded son of Awesome Again always comes with the same late kick no matter that distance, and should not be affected by the increase in distance. The one they will have to catch is #6 Gabriel’s Hill. He appears to be lone speed, and will take them as far as he can go. His pedigree states that he should be fine at the distance, and several close finishes at shorter distances. The buzz horse has been #2 Prince Will I Am, who is the co-2nd choice on the morning line at 4-1. He rallies from well back in the pack, and his pedigree just begs for as much distance as you can give it. The blog’s choice is a 15-1 longshot named #11 Precision Break. This son of Silver Deputy has been racing in Europe over the turf and synthetic in races no shorter than a mile and a half recently, and has plenty of stamina built in. He races on dirt for the first time on Friday, but has an American dirt pedigree on both sides. He may not have the class as some of the field, but he is worth a shot at 15-1.

Selections:
Precision Break (win/place bet)
Prince Will I Am
Gabriel’s Hill

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf – Grade 2 – 1m (turf)

This field of 14 is filled with all types of horses, and this group proved to be quite a handful to come up with a selection. I ended up on #13 Together. She is a European invader who last time out finished third in a field of 20, so the large field will not be a factor. That race was a straightaway race, and her previous races shows that she may prefer racing around a turn. While she goes two turns for the first time, she should not have a problem with the distance. The favorite is #7 Winter Memories. This daughter of international known turf sire El Prado won the Grade 3 Miss Grillo Stakes last out at Belmont in fine fashion, with a burst she blew by the field and caught the eye of this blogger. She figures to be a short price favorite to remain undefeated, and one has to worry whether she will get encounter traffic problems. #11 More Than Real comes in off a 2nd place finish in the Grade 3 Natalma at Woodbine, behind the #10 New Normal, but that race was around one turn. In her maiden win, More Than Real won a two-turn race at Saratoga rather nicely. She could spice up the exotics at 10-1. While I like Together, this race looks like a good spot to spread in the multi-race wagers if you think the favorites are vulnerable.

Selections:
Together
Winter Memories
More Than Real

Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint – Grade 1 – 7 furlongs
The first Grade 1 on the day is the Filly & Mare Sprint. This race has a full field of 14, and anyone of about 9 horses has a chance at winning this race. There are many speed types, a good amount of stalkers, and a few closers mixed in. The 7 furlongs distance is a specialist distance, and some may struggle to get that final furlong. The morning line favorite is #13 Rightly So, who hopes to continue her lifetime streak of never finishing off the board. She won the Grade 1 Ballerina last time out at Saratoga. She is a true speedball, and look to take the field wire to wire. However, her last win was over a track that was very speed-favoring, and will certainly find company on the front end. The defending champion is #4 Informed Decision. She won this race over a synthetic surface, in which is 10-12 lifetime. With the race on dirt, where she has run well, but not always her best, she looks to be vulnerable at short odds. The selection is #1 My Jen. This rapidly improving 3 year-old filly took the Grade 3 Gallant Bloom over #2 Sara Louise and #6 Moontune Missy. She relaxed a bit further off the pace than normal, and just got up. She should appreciate the extra 1/16th of a mile. At 15-1 morning line, I’m going to take chance at blowing up the toteboard. Sara Louise is another who I would use in the pick 3s & 4s, as that race was her first since November of 2009. #8 Switch and #9 Sweet August Moon ship in from Southern California, and look to maybe have a chance to add some value in the trifecta.

Selections:
My Jen (WP bet)
Sara Louise
Rightly So

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies – Grade 1 – 1m & 1/16th
Another tough race on this Friday card, as an evenly matched group of 12 is entered. #1 Indian Gracey has been scratched due to heat in her hoof. The favorite is #8 A Z Warrior. Daughter of freshman sire Bernardini won her first race on dirt in style when capturing the Grade 1 Frizette at Belmont. The extra 1/16th of a mile could prove to be her undoing, but she has at least shown the ability to rate. The selection is #9 Delightful Mary. This daughter of Limehouse, who has some of his greatest victories over this very Churchill Downs track, will be running on the dirt for the first time. Losing as the favorite last time out to a loose on the lead leader, she projects to be sitting about 4th or 5th going down the backstretch. Hopefully she will kick on in the stretch. Another trying dirt for the first time is #12 Tell a Kelly. This daughter of Tapit made her two-turn debut last out when finishing second to Rigoletta in the Oak Leaf. She went straight to Churchill after the race and has put together three steady drills over the surface. With Calvin Borel as her jockey, you cannot discount her at all. Also of interest is the foreign invader #2 Theyskens’ Theory, who is also sired by Bernardini, and has a classic American distance dirt pedigree. A definite spread race. Anyone with a strong opinion in here should be handsomely rewarded if correct.

Selections:
Delightful Mary
Tell a Kelly
Theyskens’ Theory

Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf – Grade 1 – 1m & 3/8 – (turf)
This field is filled with international flair, as 5 nations have a chance at claiming the title. The favorite and defending champion is #7 Midday. This daughter of Oasis Dream has won her last three races this year, and looks like a strong candidate to defend her crown. She has already won at a distance further than this, and may be the shortest favorite the entire weekend. #2 Red Desire ran an okay 3rd last out in the Grade 1 Flower Bowl last out, and looks to be the one with the best chance of upsetting the favorite. She has better acclimated to the states, and should not have a problem with the distance. The best local hope is either #2 Éclair De Lune (SoCal via Germany) or #6 Harmonious.

Selections:
Red Desire
Midday
Harmonious / Éclair De Lune (box the top 2 in an exacta. Play those over the other two in a trifecta)

Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic – Grade 1 – 1m & 1/8
For a more detail analysis, visit the Thorofan Handicapper’s Corner, where I handicapped this race. But any of you who read this blog know that I have said since April that #1 Life At Ten would win this race, and here win in the Beldame certified she will be tough to beat. I also think that all the travel Blind Luck this year catches up to her, and she finishes off the board.

Selections:
Life At Ten
Malibu Prayer/Unrivaled Belle/Acoma/Acting Happy (key Life at Ten on top; put these four underneath in the exacta and trifecta).

There is the rundown for Friday’s Breeders’ Cup races. Tomorrow brings thought on Saturday’s card. Until then, good capping and great betting!

Wednesday, October 20, 2010

The Solo SoCal Shipper in for Super Saturday Weekend (Part 2)

(Forgive me for taking this long to post this, but schoolwork caught up with me in a big way, forcing this blog to step aside to address it. Here is the second half of my Belmont adventure)

Day 2 of Super Saturday weekend was an different kind of experience compared to Saturday. For one, this blog was not going to Belmont by car, but by public transportation. This blog would try to catch up with someone who he had missed on Super Saturday.. This blog would try to enjoy the majesty and wonder that is Belmont Park, something that couldn’t be done the day before with the helter-skelter schedule that end up being Super Saturday. Finally, this blog would travel the city alone in search of someone.

The day started with this blog and Connie figuring out our plan of attack on how to get all the way from Newark to Belmont Park. While this blog is well-versed in the so-so public transportation system in Los Angeles, this would be a whole other experience. With directions provided by Cory, we were off from the hotel. We took the hotel shuttle back to the airport, where we caught the bus to Newark Penn Station. From there, we caught the PATH over the river into Manhattan. After a quick trip on the LIRR and a one stop ride on the subway, it was one more bus to Belmont Park. The bus went into the track, stopping right next to where the LIRR stop is for Belmont Park. (Which sadly only is used on Belmont Stakes day.) The strangest part of the trip was the fact that you can eat on the subway and buses in New York, something you cannot do in Los Angeles. The entire system puts L.A.'s to shame.

Once Connie and this blog arrived at Belmont, we went our separate ways, only occasionally touching base with each other throughout the day. This blog ran Teresa (@bklynbckstretch) and we had a good chat and she provided me with the key piece of information on how to travel the city alone to get to that someone. I took advantage of the less-crowded conditions and walked around the facility. Belmont is such a beautiful facility. Walking around the backyard, this blog soaked in the convivial atmosphere that must exist when it is packed with people. (The weather was rather brisk and conspired against it being as full). Walking around the immense grandstand, discovering the nooks and crannies were people hang out, each with their own visible atmosphere, was a great experience.

The 3 co-features on the day were the Grade 2 Kelso at a mile on the main track, the Grade 3 Miss Grillo for 2yo fillies on the grass going a 1m & 1/16th, and the Grade 3 Pilgrim for 2yo males on the inner turf at the same 1m & 1/16th distance. Air Support won the Pilgrim, and Tizway won the Kelso. The star of the day was the winner of the Miss Grillo, Winter Memories. She won from the outside post with an impressive turn of foot, prevailing with ease. Her connections were very excited after the race and she looks like a filly with a future. After the Kelso, this blog got a chance to catch up with Joe (@Joe_Depaolo), who this blog had seen the day before but did not have a chance to talk with at length. We had a good chat, and after the last race, this blog met back up with Connie and headed back on our journey to the hotel.

After taking a bus back to the subway stop, we discovered that there was a quicker way back to the city, by taking one train all the way back to Manhattan. There this blog said my goodbye to Connie, and proceeded to kill a little time in hoping that the guy I hoped to talk to the entire trip would call me back so I could go meet up with him. After an agonizing 45 minutes, he left me a message saying to meet him. Using the tips Teresa gave me, this blog was able to get down there in no time. The person I had hoped to talk to is none other than Ernie Munick, a world-class guy, creator of a great community on Facebook called Thoroughbred Racing in New York (TRNY) and currently doing great work for BreedersCup360.com with his "E Train" segments. This blog saw him several times during the day on Saturday, but was unable to get close enough to get his attention. Even though it was just a brief 20-minute conversation covering a wide swath of racing topics while under the subway awning to hide from the rain, it was worth it.

As this blog worked its way back to the hotel in the inclement weather late at night, time was taken to think about what this weekend meant, both from a horse racing standpoint and a personal standpoint. From a racing standpoint, Life At Ten solidified her spot as the second bet older female in the country; Winter Memories could be a future star in the making, and Blame ran a good race, lost, but did nothing to impair my love for him. Plus, all the loss did was help his price grow come post time for the Classic. On a personal level, this blog did several things that at this time last year would have been inconceivable. Going on a trip alone, flying cross-country, staying with someone they had never met before all were new experiences that will be cherished for until the end of time. What will the future hold for this blog? Who knows. But the journey will be the most enjoyable part.

Wednesday, October 6, 2010

The Solo SoCal Shipper in for Super Saturday weekend (Part 1)

Last weekend was an action-packed, stakes-filled time of racing. This blog decided that it would think outside of the box about where to see all of the Breeders' Cup preps. One would assume that a huge horse racing fan who is based in Southern California would be plenty satisfied with the grade 1 extravaganza that was being offered by the Oak Tree @ Hollywood Park meet. With the venerable Zenyatta as its star attraction, why would one want to be anywhere else?

Yet this blog wanted more. This blog wanted to experience something new, somewhere new. The chance to see not one but two of "Ten's Top T-Breds" in person for the first, and maybe only, time in their racing career(s) proved to be too irresistible of a siren's call to ignore. This blog went right on by Hollywood Park to LAX and hopped on a flight headed to New York. Final destination: Belmont Park.

Now this was no ordinary trip to the track for this blog. Not only had it never been on a flight by himself, it had not been East of the Rockies nor to a race track outside of California. Plus, it would be this blog's first time meeting with large groups of people from several different forms of social media. Add in sharing a hotel room with a non-family member and all of these firsts just added to the anxiety of taking this trip.

After an easy flight across the country, this blog landed on Friday night, where it met up with Connie (aka MsVFAB on Twitter) at the airport, who flew in from Cleveland and a fellow member of Team Blame, a group of "tweeps" who believe Blame will win the Breeders' Cup Classic. We even have custom made t-shirts to show our loyalty. (Connie is also an ardent Fly Down supporter, and was crushed over his sale to Saudi owner for fear of him never returning to the U.S. after this year.) The next morning, fellow Team Blame member Derek (NJDerek), who gave us a ride to Belmont from the hotel both ways. After a smooth, traffic-free ride, we arrived at Belmont just after the gates opened. This blog had two separate groups from two sources of social media to meet that day. One was from Twitter and the other from the TVG Community (TVGC) site, which had provided hats for this blog to distribute to the other members who were scheduled to be there. (Throughout the rest of the card, I ping-ponged between the two groups, probably at a detriment to better social interaction among me and either group.)

After saying hello and looking at the horses in the paddock for the first with the TVGC group, this blog watched the first from Belmont from the apron right at the finish line. It was a winning one, as Ya Gotta Have Soul came from just off the pace to take the victory. As the card moved forward, members from both groups filed in, with this blog meeting up with fellow Team Blame members Dylan (DylanTWM), Steve (stmunday), Bryan (ghostzapper04) and Kevin (CollinsGhost). All of them were good to meet and easy to talk with. Near the midpoint of the card, I was lucky to met the wonderful Sid (SidFernando). This was one of the highlights of the trip, as Sid is such a knowledgeable person of the sport and a great guy. With him was the (as Kevin kept calling him) "World Famous" o_crunk (real name Chris), who just coming off his well-received editorial in Thoroughbred Times.

The day went on with some highs (Life At Ten returning to form) and some lows (the camera breaking as the field of the Hirsch left the paddock). Then the big race came, the Jockey Club Gold Cup. This blog finally got to see its top horse in person, and it was worth the trip. Too bad the outcome of the race wasn't as Haynesfield snuck away to a lonely lead and won, disappointing Team Blame. But the team knows that this loss was an aberration and will only lead to higher price comes Breeders' Cup Classic time.

After the card, some of us filed into the clubhouse to watch the Lady's Secret. While there, Ian (ianlozada) managed to find those who were left of Team Blame, plus Sid. Ian had promised this blog quality pizza (something that this blog knows does not exists in Los Angeles.), so after the race Connie, Sid, Ian, Derek and I went off for pizza (having said our goodbyes to Steve and Dylan, who chose to stay a little longer to watch the Goodwood). We ate at Grimaldi's (which has now completely ruined pizza for me out here, as nothing is even close). Ian took some pictures of us (with Sid taking the ones with Ian in them).

After we all said are goodbyes and Derek drove us back to the hotel, my mind started to think about what I saw that day and what laid in store tomorrow. I went to bed even more certain (if that's possible), that Blame would avenge in the Classic, that Life at Ten was back to form, and most importantly, that i made the right decision in coming. Now, how did i handle taking public transportation to Belmont from Newark? Who else did i meet? That will have to wait until tomorrow...