Drought Report - Santa Anita Oaks Preview / San Vicente Stakes Review

The Drought Report returns after a one week absence to recap the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes from President's Day weekend. This race looks like it may produce at least one horse pointed to the Santa Anita Derby with some "buzz" around them. Looking forward, this blog shall look at this weekend's Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks, which could possibly produce a Santa Anita Derby starter. Let's get to the recap. (I apologize for the lack of posting, but some personal issues came up that prevent me from posting)

The Factor (right) won the San Vicente by going fast early (but slow late). He blazed through early fractions of 22.20 and 43.41, and finished in a slow (for that track) 36.93 seconds the last 3 furlongs. He snatched the lead early away from City Cool, disposed of that rival, kicked clear, then held off Sway Away's late stab. It was a solid effort from a horse who had only worked twice (at Hollywood Park) since his record-setting win on opening day. (He had been galloping during the interim). His connections have decided to try a route of ground in his next race, but it will not be at Santa Anita. They will instead point him towards the Grade 3 $800k Sunland Derby on March 27th. While this blog does not think he will last the Derby distance, he would have been a major factor (no pun intended) in the San Felipe Stakes.

Sway Away (right) rallied from far back to finish second. He was further back than normal coming off the layoff, and that is what may have cost him the victory. This son of Afleet Alex made his first start since finishing second to J P's Gusto in the Grade 2 Best Pal Stakes last August at Del Mar. His pedigree suggests that he should not have an issue with any additional distance. His connections have not made a firm decision on what his next race will be, but they have narrowed it down to either the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes next weekend or ship out for the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park the following weekend. Both races are at a mile and one-sixteenth. Either race could be used as a stepping-stone for the Santa Anita Derby.

Premier Pegasus (right) stalked the pace but gave way a little late, staying on for third. He was making his first start since his win in the Grade 3 Hollywood Prevue last November. His effort was rather good for a horse who only manages to get in three works in preparation for the race off the three month layoff. This blog's pick to win the Kentucky Derby ran about as expected in the race, and it should set him up well for whatever his next race will be. One would assume that his next start would be in the San Felipe as well, but no word has been given if it will be. The San Felipe could be the deepest Derby prep so far, with Sway Away, Jaycito, PrePeg, Albergatti, Runflatout and Comma To The Top (plus whomever else enters) all run as expected. That race figures to be a great betting race as well as a guide to help sort the pretenders from the pretenders.

News and Notes

• Awesome Patriot (who could also run in the San Felipe) has continually worked since his allowance win opening week, with his latest spin being on 2/28, going 6 furlongs in 1:13.20 at Santa Anita. This Baffert trainee has been on the sidelines, waiting for the right stake, either here or out of town
• Albergatti, pointed to the San Felipe, worked a steady five furlongs on 2/28 at Santa Anita, going 5 furlongs with 59.80.
• Jaycito worked towards his 2011 debut with a sparkling 5 furlong work on 2/28 at Santa Anita, coming home in 58.60, the third best of the day.
• Comma To The Top looking to bounce back from his poor effort in the El Camino Real Derby in the San Felipe, worked 5f at Hollywood Park on 2/28, sizzling home in 58.8, the 2nd best work of 37.
• Runflatout, who ran the fastest debut win EVER (according to the Illman blog) in his maiden win on Sunshine Millions day in January, worked on 2/28 7f in 1:24.20 at Santa Anita. He will make his stakes debut in the San Felipe.
• El Camino Real Derby winner Silver Medallion worked on 2/28 an easy 5 furlongs in 1:01.40. His next start is still up in the air.
• The Steve Asmussen trainee Astrology will point to the Rebel instead of the San Felipe, paving the way for Albergatti to stay here. (He is also the trainer of Silver Medallion and Albergatti.)
  

The Santa Anita Oaks has produced starters for the Santa Anita Derby in the past. The last runner to do so was Sweet Catomine, who lost in the Derby as the even money favorite after winning the Oaks in her previous start. Only one Triple Crown nominee, Turbulent Descent. The grade 1 Hollywood Starlet winner ran an okay second in first start of her 2011 campaign in the grade 1 Las Virgenes Stake, who was by Zazu, who she takes on once again. Zazu looks to keep her momentum going out of that race for her well-known owners Mr & Mrs. Jerry and Ann Moss. May Day Rose also comes out of that race, and looks to try to take them wire-to-wire once again. Another grade 1 winner also goes in the race in A Z Warrior. This daughter of Bernardini has not started since her off the board finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. She previously had won the grade 1 Frizette at Belmont Park. The only horse who has not won a stake, nor even started in one, is Kilograeme (right). This daughter of Graeme Hall won her debut race sprinting at the beginning of the meet, then came back and defeated the highly regarded Rumor in allowance race three weeks ago. She steps up into graded stakes company, and figures to get a good stalking trip sitting right behind May Day Rose if she can handle the the class hike.

So as the halfway point of the Santa Anita meet comes and goes, the picture still remains rather muddled on who will step up and be the one to attempt to end the drought. Will a filly step into the picture? Can those coming back return or surpass their previous form? We shall see. Good luck everybody.

Santa Anita President's Day Weekend Stakes Wrap-Up

Last weekend brought with it a three-day weekend as the nation celebrated Lincoln's and Washington's birthdays. Santa Anita ran 5 stakes over those three days, from a pair of 7 furlong sprints to a mile and a half marathon on the lawn. On Saturday, the Grade 2 San Luis Obispo Stakes and the Grade 2 San Carlos Stakes were run, both with thrilling stretch-drives. Sunday brought the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes. Monday brought a couple of races on the grass, the Grade 3 La Habra Stakes and the Grade 2 Buena Vista Handicap. The stakes actions had some scintillating stretch runs, some devastating late kicks and a solid gate-to-wire performance.

On Saturday, The Grade 2 San Luis Obispo Stakes at a mile and one-half continued the budding rivalry between arguably the two best turf horses in the country, Champ Pegasus (right) and Bourbon Bay. In the San Marcos Stakes last month, Bourbon beat Champ, maintaining a perfect record over the course. This race was affected by the inclement weather that hit the Southern California area on Friday and Saturday, forcing the start of the race to happen on the main oval of the turf course, and not on the downhill portion. The race itself managed to avoid the rain, as the sun was out. Unbridle’s Dream went out and set the lead, getting in front by, at some points, 10 lengths. Bourbon tracked the leader in 2nd, taking over the lead when the pacesetter faded in the stretch. (Unbridle’s Dream had to be vanned off after the race with a non-life-threatening injury.) Champ Pegasus came right up to Bourbon Bay, and they threw it down in the stretch, battling right down to the wire. In the end, the Champ won the battle, as he won the photo over Bourbon at the wire. After the race, Champ’s trainer Richard Mandella said that he will head to Dubai with his runner for a race on the Dubai World Cup night, and Bourbon Bay’s trainer. Neil Drysdale said he will take his charge there as well. It is a bit of shame that these two will not continue through the rest of the San Juan Capistrano series, as these two could have eclipsed the last big turf rivalry in Southern California, Kotashaan and Bien Bien. This blog wishes them luck in Dubai.

A few hours later, with a hailstorm in the interim, under much wetter conditions, the Grade 2 San Carlos Stakes at 7 furlongs ended up with 4 of the 6 horses finishing within a length of each other at the wire. The favorite was Smiling Tiger (right). He was looking to bounce back from his disappointing third-place effort in the Palos Verdes Handicap last month. Captain Cherokee, who finished second in the Palos Verdes, along with the Baffert duo of Mythical Power and Ventana, were among those who lined up against them. At the break, Smiling Tiger had trouble, and was in the unusual situation of having to come off the pace. Captain Cherokee and Ventana set the moderate fractions down the backstretch on a less than fast track, and held the lead until the final 1/16th. Mythical Power charged, as did Smiling Tiger. As they hit the wire, Smiling Tiger gamely went by the others, winning from well off the pace under a perfect ride by his jockey Joel Rosario. The connections for Smiling Tiger stated that their next goal is Met Mile at Belmont on Memorial Day.

On Sunday, 6 three year olds lined up in the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes going 7 furlongs. The favorite was The Factor (right), who was making his first start since his track-record performance on opening day. Second choice in the betting was Best Pal Stakes runner up Sway Away, who was making his first start since that race in August. Third choice was Hollywood Prevue winner and this blog’s choice to win the Kentucky Derby Premier Pegasus. The Factor went right out to lead, dueling with and eventually putting away City Cool by the time the field was turning for home under swift fractions. PrePeg stalked the blistering pace, but could not stay with the leaders and ended up a solid third. Sway Away rallied from well out of it, but could not catch The Factor, with the race finishing in a time similar to the San Carlos. Further analysis of this race will be provided in the next Drought Report post.

On Monday, the stakes action kicked off with the Grade 3 La Habra going about 6 & ½ furlongs down the hillside turf course, with the turf listed as good. This was a surprise to this blog that the race was on the turf, as the amount of rain SoCal received was not insubstantial. A Z Warrior and Bloemer Girl were both major scratches from the race. One of the betting choices was Cambina(right), who looked to put in a late run and build off her trouble-filled North American debut in the Sweet Life Stakes (which was a common race to many in here. The favorite was Cloneylass, who like Cambina, was severely impeded during the running of the Sweet Life, in which she finished second. Two of the also-eligibles drew in, with Quiet Oasis drawing some attention on the board, partly due to her 7th-placed finish in the Bredeers’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf and her luring of top local jockey Joel Rosario. At the wire, a desperate photo separated Quiet Oasis, who took over in the stretch, and the on-rushing Cambina, who rallied from well out of it. Cambina won the photo over Quiet Oasis, with Cathy’s Crunches finishing well-back in third. These two could hook up next in the Grade 2 Providencia Stakes going a mile on the grass on the Santa Anita Derby undercard.

Two races later, 11 older mares hooked up in the Grade 2 Buena Vista Handicap. The field was evenly matched, with the morning line emphasizing that by making the morning-line favorite 4/1. However, the favorite (Evening Jewel) scratched out of the race, with the connections citing the post and the less-than-firm turf conditions. Favoritism fell to Malibu Pier, who was coming off a disappointing finish in the Grade 2 El Encino last month on the main track. Returning to the turf, where she previously won on, she appeared a solid choice, and looked great in the paddock. Briecat always is a threat to take a field gate to wire, and she attempted to do as much during the race. She won the front-end battle but lost the race as Cozi Rosie (right)rallied from way back to get up for the win, with Malibu Pier finishing third. Cozi was returning from a long layoff, and may be at her best at this mile distance, as this win was her third win at the distance.

So there is a brief recap of the stakes action that occurred at Santa Anita over the President’s Day weekend. It was filled with thrilling finishes, the 2011 debuts of some future stars and the continuation of a budding rivalry. Let’s see what the rest of the meet holds.