Drought Report - Santa Anita Oaks Preview / San Vicente Stakes Review

The Drought Report returns after a one week absence to recap the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes from President's Day weekend. This race looks like it may produce at least one horse pointed to the Santa Anita Derby with some "buzz" around them. Looking forward, this blog shall look at this weekend's Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks, which could possibly produce a Santa Anita Derby starter. Let's get to the recap. (I apologize for the lack of posting, but some personal issues came up that prevent me from posting)

The Factor (right) won the San Vicente by going fast early (but slow late). He blazed through early fractions of 22.20 and 43.41, and finished in a slow (for that track) 36.93 seconds the last 3 furlongs. He snatched the lead early away from City Cool, disposed of that rival, kicked clear, then held off Sway Away's late stab. It was a solid effort from a horse who had only worked twice (at Hollywood Park) since his record-setting win on opening day. (He had been galloping during the interim). His connections have decided to try a route of ground in his next race, but it will not be at Santa Anita. They will instead point him towards the Grade 3 $800k Sunland Derby on March 27th. While this blog does not think he will last the Derby distance, he would have been a major factor (no pun intended) in the San Felipe Stakes.

Sway Away (right) rallied from far back to finish second. He was further back than normal coming off the layoff, and that is what may have cost him the victory. This son of Afleet Alex made his first start since finishing second to J P's Gusto in the Grade 2 Best Pal Stakes last August at Del Mar. His pedigree suggests that he should not have an issue with any additional distance. His connections have not made a firm decision on what his next race will be, but they have narrowed it down to either the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes next weekend or ship out for the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park the following weekend. Both races are at a mile and one-sixteenth. Either race could be used as a stepping-stone for the Santa Anita Derby.

Premier Pegasus (right) stalked the pace but gave way a little late, staying on for third. He was making his first start since his win in the Grade 3 Hollywood Prevue last November. His effort was rather good for a horse who only manages to get in three works in preparation for the race off the three month layoff. This blog's pick to win the Kentucky Derby ran about as expected in the race, and it should set him up well for whatever his next race will be. One would assume that his next start would be in the San Felipe as well, but no word has been given if it will be. The San Felipe could be the deepest Derby prep so far, with Sway Away, Jaycito, PrePeg, Albergatti, Runflatout and Comma To The Top (plus whomever else enters) all run as expected. That race figures to be a great betting race as well as a guide to help sort the pretenders from the pretenders.

News and Notes

• Awesome Patriot (who could also run in the San Felipe) has continually worked since his allowance win opening week, with his latest spin being on 2/28, going 6 furlongs in 1:13.20 at Santa Anita. This Baffert trainee has been on the sidelines, waiting for the right stake, either here or out of town
• Albergatti, pointed to the San Felipe, worked a steady five furlongs on 2/28 at Santa Anita, going 5 furlongs with 59.80.
• Jaycito worked towards his 2011 debut with a sparkling 5 furlong work on 2/28 at Santa Anita, coming home in 58.60, the third best of the day.
• Comma To The Top looking to bounce back from his poor effort in the El Camino Real Derby in the San Felipe, worked 5f at Hollywood Park on 2/28, sizzling home in 58.8, the 2nd best work of 37.
• Runflatout, who ran the fastest debut win EVER (according to the Illman blog) in his maiden win on Sunshine Millions day in January, worked on 2/28 7f in 1:24.20 at Santa Anita. He will make his stakes debut in the San Felipe.
• El Camino Real Derby winner Silver Medallion worked on 2/28 an easy 5 furlongs in 1:01.40. His next start is still up in the air.
• The Steve Asmussen trainee Astrology will point to the Rebel instead of the San Felipe, paving the way for Albergatti to stay here. (He is also the trainer of Silver Medallion and Albergatti.)
  

The Santa Anita Oaks has produced starters for the Santa Anita Derby in the past. The last runner to do so was Sweet Catomine, who lost in the Derby as the even money favorite after winning the Oaks in her previous start. Only one Triple Crown nominee, Turbulent Descent. The grade 1 Hollywood Starlet winner ran an okay second in first start of her 2011 campaign in the grade 1 Las Virgenes Stake, who was by Zazu, who she takes on once again. Zazu looks to keep her momentum going out of that race for her well-known owners Mr & Mrs. Jerry and Ann Moss. May Day Rose also comes out of that race, and looks to try to take them wire-to-wire once again. Another grade 1 winner also goes in the race in A Z Warrior. This daughter of Bernardini has not started since her off the board finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. She previously had won the grade 1 Frizette at Belmont Park. The only horse who has not won a stake, nor even started in one, is Kilograeme (right). This daughter of Graeme Hall won her debut race sprinting at the beginning of the meet, then came back and defeated the highly regarded Rumor in allowance race three weeks ago. She steps up into graded stakes company, and figures to get a good stalking trip sitting right behind May Day Rose if she can handle the the class hike.

So as the halfway point of the Santa Anita meet comes and goes, the picture still remains rather muddled on who will step up and be the one to attempt to end the drought. Will a filly step into the picture? Can those coming back return or surpass their previous form? We shall see. Good luck everybody.

President's Day Stakes Action at Santa Anita

The President's Day holiday brings to the Great Race Place two graded stakes. First up is the Grade 3 La Habra Stakes for 3 year old fillies scheduled to go about 6.5 furlongs down the hillside turf course (though will it be actually run on the grass is questionable). Then an hour or so later, the Grade 2 Buena Vista Handicap going a mile on the grass for older fillies and mares goes off. Each race features at least on Grade 1 winner amongst their respective entrants. But Mother Nature has thrown a curveball into the mix. The large amount of precipitation that fell in Southern California last week definitely will have an effect on the races. While the Buena Vista will probably be run on the turf, albeit on a less than firm turf course, the La Habra might be run instead on the main track. Let's start with the La Habra.

The determination of whether or not the race will be run down the hill will not be made until Monday morning, but this blog thinks that the race will come off the grass, as the downhill portion of the turf course appears to take longer to dry out than the inner oval. Neither of the two prior Grade 1 winners would mind a switch to the main, as neither of them have run on the grass, and are not overly bred for it either. The #1 Rigoletta pulled a 32-1 shocker in winning the Grade 1 Oak Leaf going 1m & 1/16th over the Cushion Track at Hollywood Park. She was subsequently knocked out due to injury after that race, and has 5 works in two for her return. No matter which surface this race is run, it will be mark her first race over it, as she has run over solely synthetic in her career. The other Grade 1 winner is #3 A Z Warrior (right). This daughter of Bernardini won the Grade 1 Frizette at Belmont Park going a mile. After finishing dead last in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, she has been freshened for her 2011 campaign. She has several nice works for her return, including a bullet 5f work in 59 flat on 2/15. She beat Rigoletta when both were making their debuts in July 2010. A strong contender on either surface is #6 Bloemer Girl. This daughter of Bertrando won the Sweet Life Stakes at this very distance on the grass last time out in a race seriously affected by a loose horse (#7 She'll Heir). While the #6 has never raced over the dirt, her pedigree suggests that she will not have a problem with the dirt. The one worry with her is that she has not worked since her win in the Sweet Life on 1/22.

The Buena Vista Handicap goes a flat mile on the grass with 11 entrants + 2 also eligible. It is an evenly matched field, as shown by the tepid 4-1 morning line favorite in #11 Evening Jewel. This Grade 1 winner returns to the turf after winning the Sunshine Millions Distaff on the main track last month. She threw a solid work on the grass in the interim. She will struggle some breaking from the outside post, and her regular jockey Victor Espinoza will have to navigate a trip from out there. #5 Malibu Pier (right) returns to the grass after some mixed results on the main track. After running a solid second in the Grade 1 La Brea Stakes, she finished dead last in the El Encino Stakes. She has worked three times steadily in the interim, and seems to have bounced back from the poor effort no worse for wear. She has a good shot to work out a good stalking trip from her post. She gets in very light at a 115 lbs, 7 less than Evening Jewel and at least 2 lbs less than any of the other contenders. A horse who will be rolling from the back of the pack is #10 It Tiz. This daughter of Tiznow won a race that several of the competitors come out of, the Megahertz Stakes. Run at the same distance as the Buena Vista, It Tiz rallied from well off the pace to get up for the win. She has two good works in the interim and the race flow sets up will for her today. But will she find a way through without having to swing wide, especially with the rails at 15 feet?

Two solid stakes finish up the President's Day weekend at Santa Anita, and both hopefully will be on the grass. Who will use the La Habra as a springboard for bigger and better things? Who will win the Buena Vista to attempt to take control of the filly/mare mile division? We shall see. Good luck everybody!