Where Will Hollywood Park's Graded Stakes Land? (Where Should They?)

With the imminent closure of Betfair Hollywood Park, the 36 graded stakes are up for grabs to the other tracks on the circuit. Below is listing is of each of graded stakes available, along with where the writer thinks they SHOULD go and where they probably WILL go.



As the chart shows, the reason it is 36 (and not 37) graded stakes is that the Jim Murray Memorial Hcp. has not been run in either of the last two years, which means it will not be graded next year.

Most of the stakes are just going to be carried over from one venue to the other with little change, with some getting the axe due to excessive duplication or monetary issues. The third column is what this blog wish could happen to the schedule instead, taking advantage of certain factors and/or scheduling conflicts. This blog's main suggestions would provide a drastically needed shake-up while throwing a lifeline to a struggling smaller track.

Including Golden Gate Fields
The biggest change suggested is that Golden Gate (whose owners also own Santa Anita) get the Grade 1 Hollywood Gold Cup and the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile. Moving the races there would not (initially) affect its Grade 1 status, as it is still within California and the basic timing and conditions of the race would remain unchanged. If this were to occur, two prep series could be set-up between the tracks, to help attract attention. The San Francisco Mile (GG) on Derby Day, the American (SA) 4 weeks later, and then Shoemaker Mile (GG) back at Golden Gate Fields on Independence Day would make up the first series (all older male grass miles). For the older main track routers, with the Mervyn Leroy Hcp (SA), Californian (SA), and the newly christened Golden Gate Gold Cup (GG) would make up a comparable series. (Golden Gate Fields will still run the G3 All-American on Memorial Day, as a local prep) Both could have some sort of bonus attached to get connections to run all three. The Golden Gate Gold Cup in particular could be marketed as a sort of test run for any horses who might want to consider a run in Dubai, with it being a similar Tapeta surface as the track at Meydan.

Including Los Alamitos
Los Alamitos is going to run 5 weeks (split among two weeks) next year, and the chance for them to pick up a few stakes that will get squeezed out of the schedule is there. This blog ended up thinking as many as five of them could end up at the track, with four of them being run in the Autumn meet (dark purple). Each of those four graded stakes would fit the configuration of the track AND have a high chance of not being picked up by Del Mar because of Del Mar's short meet. The G3 Laz Barrera was not run this spring/summer meet at Hollywood Park, and at 7 furlongs might have to change distance to be run at Los Alamitos, but it is an intriguing option to any 3yo sprinters who may not handle the Polytrack/facing older at Del Mar. The Hollywood Prevue could be available if Del Mar decides to not run a prep for the Hollywood Futurity, and Los Al could easily pick that up as well.

Hollywood Derby
Del Mar cannot run a ten-furlong grass race because of the configuration of its turf course. So that mean the Hollywood Derby would have to be shortened/lengthened to fit the course. Instead, this blog suggests that it be moved to Belmont Stakes weekend (or the weekend after) of the spring/summer meet. In this case, it would fill a natural void of races for 3yo turf horses early in the year, while also retaining its original distance. The other option is to move it to Santa Anita's autumn meet on closing weekend, forcing the Twilight Derby to opening weekend.

CUT?
Honestly, this blog didn't cut any of the races from his column because he decided to see how the changes made would affect the schedule. The guesses on which will be cut are based on assumptions from track gossip, logical guesses based on the schedule (including the recently released 2013-2014 Santa Anita Winter meet stakes schedule) and which stakes seemed to be the most redundant compared to the track they are headed. The one stake this blog feels most confident on being cut is the Sunset, as with the Whittingham being a G2 and the omission of the typical closing day feature, the San Juan Capistrano Hcp., from the winter/spring schedule (assuming that it will be placed at the end of the spring/summer meet instead), the numbers don't add up for the Sunset's inclusion on the stakes calendar.

So there is this blog's "ten cents" on what the graded stakes schedule should look like for Southern California after Hollywood Park closes. What's your take? Let it be known in the comments. Good luck everybody.

Breeders' Cup Friday Thoughts (Undercard Included)

The biggest two consecutive days of racing in the North America are upon us with the Breeders' Cup. Some of the best from around the world have come to go for millions in purses spread over 15 races. Day One will showcase 6 races, with the main attraction being the Ladies' Classic. Two undefeated stars will throw in down with the division leader among others in an epic battle for divisional honors. Four undercard races will be run, with three allowances before the Breeders' Cup races commence and the Twilight (formerly the Oak Tree) Derby will end the card. While most folks will focus on just the Breeders' Cup races, I love the undercard races. Not only are the usually good betting opportunities, there is always a chance that a future Breeders' Cup horse could run. In 2006, Maryfield won a race on the undercard, then went on next year to win the inaugural Filly & Mare Sprint. Also included as a counterweight are thoughts on the BC races from a life-long handicapper and friend of the blog, Chris M.

RACE 1

The first race is a first level allowance going a mile and an eighth over the turf. The favorite is likely to be the European import Saint Loup. He was Group 3 placed after just losing the bob. This is most likely a prep for the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby next month at Hollywood Park. His trainer has had success in the past with shippers from Europe, including Breeders' Cup Mile winner Val Royal, and more recently, Loup Breton. He has a steady pattern of works for the race, and gets an out-of-town rider. He is a must use. There figures to be enough pace to make it open for anyone to win. The pick is Segway. This son of Giant's Causeway won first time out over this course. Last time out he finished a flat 6th in first race in 9 months. He was well backed in that race, even though his trainer is only so-so first off the layoff. The horse should appreciate the extra furlong to work with. His trainer has plenty of experience winning on Breeders' Cup days in the past.
Play: Win bet on Segway; Exacta Box of Segway & Saint Loup
Confidence: 7.5 out of 10

RACE 2

There is a ton of early speed in this race. BIG TIZ can take advantage of the expected hot pace. She has enough tactical speed to remain in contact early and inherit the lead from the tiring leaders late in the stretch. MISS OOPS steps way up in class, but can earn the same trip as the top selection. WARREN’S AMBER will be rolling late from the back of the pack and could pick up a slice.

Play:  Exacta of Big Tiz / Miss Oops, Warren's Amber

Confidence: 8.5

RACE 3

NORTHERN IOWA cuts back off a close 3^rd in a minor stakes at Fairplex Park. He has a running style would lend itself to this extended sprint. BASMATI was knocking heads with some the best in his 2yo season when last scene. He makes his return off an 11 month layoff in this race. His best is competitive enough to win. SEVEN BRIDGES comes off a maiden win going longer and could clunk up for a share. GOT EVEN is a play against, as there is other speed present to prevent him from establishing a clear lead, which he needs to win.

Play: Win bet on Northern Iowa

Confidence Rating: 7

RACE 4 – JUVENILE SPRINT

The first Breeders’ Cup race of the weekend is the Juvenile Sprint. In its 2^nd year, it attracts a compact field of 7. MERIT MAN is a worthy favorite, as he can set the lead or sit just off the pace. SUPER NINETY NINE looks to keep the crown in the Baffert barn for another year with a track-and-attack trip. SWEET SHIRLEY MAE is a filly going against the boys. She has plenty of early speed but showed a new dimension when closing off a hot pace.

Play:  NONE

Confidence rating: 3

Chris M's take: This is a race that should be cut from BC weekend. In two years it has produced two boring heats. After this year the Baffert haters will have good cause to raise their voice again when Super 99 wins by two. Blah.

RACE 5 - MARATHON

The longest Breeders’ Cup race is up next in the Marathon. COMMANDER will have the lead early, but considering his unruly demeanor witnessed yesterday while schooling, one seriously questions his ability to last the 14 furlongs. WORTH REPEATING is the horse most likely to inherit the lead if/when Commander stops. He has a win over the track at a similar distance and looked great during the week. An interesting longshot is CALIDOSCOPIO comes in off a 5 month layoff, when winning a Grade 2 in his native Argentina. He has run well in similar situations in the past. ATIGUN and JAYCITO are Triple Crown refugees from different years who seem like the same horse, one who will just clunk along and end getting a share.

Play:  Win bet on Worth Repeating

Selections:

#12 WORTH REPEATING

#6 CALIDOSCOPIO

#1 ATIGUN / #5 JAYCITO

Confidence Rating: 7

Chris M's take:  Another race to cut. This is the only dirt stake in America where your lone F can have three lengths on the field after a 53 half and be 8th turning into the stretch. If you hit a single here your either a time traveler or a descendant of Charlie Whittingham. If I had to pick one here it would be Fame and Glory as he has run in the last two runnings of 20 furlong Cialis Gold Cup.

RACE 6 – JUVY FILLY TURF

Tough race. SKY LANTERN comes off a grade 1 win in Ireland. She ran well on harder turf in Europe like she will see today. SUSTAINED could try to take the field gate-to-wire from the outside post in a race bereft of early speed. Her trainer is known for such aggressive tactics in paceless affairs. WATERWAY RUN won going left-handed in Europe, and has a very American pedigree. NANCY O could spice up the bottom rungs of the exotics at a big price after a failed attempt on dirt.

Play: Maybe a .10 super using these in a "chuck-and-pray" stab.

Confidence rating: 5.5

Chris M's take: 14 youngsters stacked on the 7F+ green and you better cross your fingers that your selection(s) don’t have major trouble. BC longshots usually blow up the tote when the favorites are closers on the turf and there is a murky pace scenario, which is the case here. Sky Lantern, Watsdachances, and Spring Venture all look formidable and will be on my tickets but the hometown Flashy Ways with Talamo I see taking control early from post 13 and try to hold. If she isn’t sent a five wide trip is likely so @ 15/1 she is a play.

RACE 7 – JUVENILE FILLIES

The tagline for this race could be “Speed, speed and more speed!” BROKEN SPELL will be a huge price, but she would appear to be able to hang just close enough to grind her way to a win in what looks to be a staggerfest in the lane. EXECUTIVEPRIVILEGE has done nothing wrong in her brief career, going 5-for-5. But she has looked very flat the last two weeks and could be beatable. DREAMING OF JULIA has shown at least what appears to be ability to rate, though she has never done actually done it.

Play: Exacta boxes keying Broken Spell with the other two + $2 WP

Confidence Rating: 4

Chris M's take: There are two questions here. Can Beholder get the distance and will either of the Pletchers be sent after her? If she can get the trip her last points her as the superior 2yo now. The 44 flat half and 109 final came on roughly the same surface Coil and company ran on two days later when they went 3 or 4 clicks slower at each point of call. True, there was a severe speed/inside bias the first seven days of the meet but if you can recall a better 6F run by a 2yo, of either sex, in the last 30 years I’d like to hear it. Garrett, from the rail, will race ride either of the Pletchers if they try to contest the lead. Executiveprivilege hasn’t looked right in her last two works, beat a poor field in the Chandelier when the start eliminated her primary competition, and she coasted on and easy lead. ExecP is the favorite I least like for the weekend. And yes, as clearly the best horse in the race Beholder can get the 8.5F’s, even with her breeding

RACE 8 – FILLY & MARE TURF

THE FUGUE has been specifically pointed to this race by her connections. Coming off a tough loss in the Yorkshire Oaks to one of the favorites in the BC Turf, she has looked good here in the states since arriving. She seems to prefer little give in the ground. NAHRAIN found her winning form when shipping over for the Flower Bowl last time out. She has won several strong races over firmer turf and should appreciate the shorter distance compared to last year. LADY OF SHAMROCK may be the best 3yo turf filly in America and loves this course.

Play: Some sort of exotic keying The Fugue on top + plus a flat win bet.

Confidence Rating: 9

Chris M's take:  Another deep and contentious turf race complicated by a lack of pace. Going six deep here with Zagora, Nahrain (why the blinks add off a win?), The Fugue, Marketing Mix, I’m a Dreamer, and Ridasiyna. A female Precious Passion would have a two pole backstretch lead vs. this bunch.

RACE 9 – LADIES’ CLASSIC

The Ladies’ Classic is the marquee race of the day. It brings together several stars of the game together it would figures to be a good race. ROYAL DELTA comes off a smashing win in the Beldame. She figures to sit a smart trip tracking 3-4 lengths behind the speed. GRACE HALL comes off a good win in the Indiana Oaks, can sit a similar trip tracking the speed and will offer major value in the exotics. QUESTING could steal the race on the front end if no one engages her early. Both AWESOME FEATHER & MY MISS AURELIA come into the race undefeated, but both are horses who will fade late at low odds.

Play: $1 exacta Royal Delta / Grace Hall, Questing + $1 trifecta Royal Delta / Grace Hall, Questing / Grace Hall, Questing

Confidence Rating: 9.5

Chris M's take: Now here we have a race! There is a lone F here, IF the jock chooses to use it. Questing is flat out faster than Love and Pride and can utilize the existing bias by taking the lead. Of the two undefeated, My Miss Aurelia has the most to prove. She’s only run two turn races and that last no pace, last quarter drag race will not set her up for an effort where she will have to run an entire race vs. a field 3 to 4 times tougher than she has faced. Awesome Feather has a GR1 vs. older but hasn’t faced this caliber either. Both will be over bet. Royal Delta was the beneficiary of  the anti-speed Churchill surface last year and a poor out by It’s Tricky in last @ Belmont. Throw in the abysmal record of Belmont horses going West and she is a play against.  Don’t overlook Grace Hall for the unders as well as the bomber Class Included, who is only 16-10-6-0.

RACE 10 – TWILIGHT DERBY

POWER FOOT had no chance in his last race as the 1-2 runners early finished that way. With a change in venue & trainer, he has a big chance to blow up the tote. GRANDEUR has run well over firm turf and on left-handed courses. He struggled against group 3 types in England, but that may have been because of the course conditions. SPEAKING OF WHICH comes in a graded stakes winner already, having taking a Group 3 at a longer distance. This might be too short of a race for his talent.

Play: $2 WPS on Power Foot

Selections:

#3 POWER FOOT

#7 GRANDUER

#2 SPEAKING OF WHICH

Confidence Rating: 8.9

Good luck on day one folks.

Skepticism Warranted for Rodeo Drive Runners in Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf

(written by a friend of the blog, Jordan Miller)

The Rodeo Drive Stakes (previously known as the Yellow Ribbon) has traditionally been viewed as one of the key preps for the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf. With this year's Breeders' Cup being run at Santa Anita, extra attention will likely be afforded to those runners exiting the Rodeo Drive, given they will own a prep race over the Santa Anita turf course. Of the turf females pre-entered in the BC Filly & Mare Turf, three made their final prep in the Rodeo Drive, Marketing Mix, Nereid, and Stormy Lucy. Marketing Mix figures to garner the majority of buzz from among this trio given her sharp score in the Rodeo Drive and her prior excellent form back East and in Canada. However, an analysis of the previous 13 runnings of the BC Filly & Mare Turf suggests one should approach wagering on Marketing Mix or any of the other Rodeo Drive runners in the BC Filly & Mare Turf with caution.

Skepticism towards the chances of the Rodeo Drive graduates in the BC Filly & Mare Turf is warranted given the anemic performance of other past runners in the 13 previous editions of the BC Filly & Mare Turf. The statistics regarding the ineptitude of Rodeo Drive runners in the BC Filly & Mare Turf is nothing short of staggering. In the 13 previous runnings of the BC Filly & Mare Turf, 24 horses have ran their final prep in the Rodeo Drive. These 24 runners have combined for only one total placing, a 2nd by Banks Hill in the 02' edition at Arlington Park. (The total placings would have been two, but Wait a While, the 08' Rodeo Drive winner, was later disqualified from 3rd and placed last due to a medication violation. A positive that superfecta players should note is that 6 times, a Rodeo Drive runner has finished 4th in the Filly & Mare Turf. What makes the fact that only one Rodeo Drive runner has ever placed in a BC Filly & Mare Turf so significant is that many of these runners were sent off at low odds in the Breeders' Cup. Of the 24 Rodeo Drive runners to have competed in the BC Filly & Mare Turf, half of them went off at 7.50: 1 or lower. More profound, 10 of the 24 were sent off at odds of 5:1 or lower.

That only one Rodeo Drive runner has ever placed in a BC Filly Mare Turf stands in stark contrast to the performance of runners exiting the major East Coast preps, the Flower Bowl and First Lady( run as the Winstar Galaxy from 2000-2005), or those shipping from Europe. The Flower Bowl runners have a 4-4-4-6 record (Win-Place-Show-4th) in the race. The First Lady runners have a 3-2-1-1 record. European shippers have a 5-4-7 record in the 13 runnings of the BC Filly & Mare Turf.

One would expect that the Rodeo Drive runners to have performed better in those Breeders' Cups run over the Santa Anita turf (03', 08', 09'), but this hasn't been the case. Although running right back over the course they just ran over, the 1-2 finishers in the 03' Rodeo Drive could only muster 8th & 11th place efforts in that year's Filly & Mare Turf. Vacare, the 08’ Rodeo Drive runner-up, checked in 4th in the Filly & Mare Turf. (This excludes the previously mentioned DQ of Wait a While) The 1-2 finishers of the ‘09 Rodeo Drive returned to the scene for moderate 4th and 5th place finishes in the Filly & Mare Turf. So much for the theory of needing a prep over the Santa Anita turf course.

All this information begs the question be asked: “Why has the Rodeo Drive been such a poor prep for the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf?” My hypothesis is that the race has been such a poor prep because its inability to draw relatively strong fields. Typically, Rodeo Drive fields are shallow, with at best only a couple truly elite turf distaffers. Structural aspects of the Rodeo Drive like timing in comparison to the BC, course layout or distance (like when the Jockey Club Gold Cup was run at 12 furlongs and produced beaten low priced BC Classic horses such as Slew o' Gold, Vanlandingham, Turkoman, and Easy Goer) have much less to do to account for the poor prep record.

As to why the fields for the Rodeo Drive have been so poor, the main reason is that the local colony of Cali turf distaffers from which these fields have been drawn from the last 13 years have been shallow. The Cali female turf colony has been significantly affected by a general decline in California racing; More specifically, the death, retirement, or decline in top stock of top turf trainers such as Charlie Whittingham, Bobby Frankel, Ron MacAnally, (and to a lesser extent) Richard Mandella and Neil Drysdale. It is significant that the only two horses to ever cross the wire among the top 3 in the BC Filly & Mare Turf from the Rodeo Drive [Banks Hill and Wait a While(before being dq’d)], had shipped in for the Rodeo Drive.

The effect of the weak local female turf colony on the quality of Rodeo Drive fields has compounded by the one structural aspect of the Rodeo Drive that has contributed to weaker fields, purse structure. In comparison to other preps, the race has been losing ground. (Chart below)

The affect of this purse deficit has been a talent drain away from the Rodeo Drive. The already weak pool of local Cali turf females from which the Rodeo Drive primarily draws has not been significantly bolstered by shippers. Instead, what has happened with the Flower Bowl and First Lady offering either equivalent money or more is that some of the few truly elite Cali turf females have bypassed the Rodeo Drive and shipped out for their final BC prep. The two Cali based runners to have won the BC Filly & Mare Turf, Starine (02’) and Intercontinental (05’), prepped in the Flower Bowl and First Lady respectively, while the Cali-based 00’ Filly & Mare runner-up, Tout Charmant, prepped in the First Lady. Furthermore, the Rodeo Drive has been badly outperformed by the Flower Bowl in attracting European stars seeking a North American prep for the Breeders' Cup. With a purse of just $250k and a shallow pool of local turf females, one should expect the Rodeo Drive to continue to have only a marginal impact on the BC Filly & Mare Turf.

The conclusion is simple: Horses that come out of the Rodeo Drive are consistently bet in the BC Filly & Mare Turf, and they consistently have underperformed. The record of Rodeo Drive horses in the Breeders' Cup is nothing short of a disaster. Thus, while Marketing Mix is a deserving top three choice based on traditional handicapping variables, and she certainly looked like a leading contender in winning the Rodeo Drive, at the very least the record of Rodeo Drive runners in past Breeders' Cups should give one pause before placing a wager on her this Friday. However, the past does not imprison the present, and the poor record of the Rodeo Drive as a Breeders' Cup prep does not preclude the possibility that Marketing Mix, Nereid, or Stormy Lucy will run well in the Breeders' Cup. Yet, neither do I think the statistics presented here to be irrelevant or some insignificant anomalies. Ultimately, it is up to the reader to determine how much weight they will attach to these stats.

Drought Breaker - I'll Have Another

After a thrilling stretch duel, I'll Have Another preserved and took the Santa Anita Derby four weeks ago. He has trained well since the race, with two solid six furlongs drills at Betfair Hollywood Park before he shipped to Churchill Downs last week. With him earning the "Drought Breaker" title, let us see the recent history he most overcome in the Kentucky Derby this Saturday being a winner of the Santa Anita Derby:



As you can see, it has been 23 years since the winner of the Santa Anita Derby has gone on to win the Kentucky Derby. Not since the immortal Sunday Silence has a horse pulled the double. During that time the average odds of the Santa Anita Derby was less than 10-1, yet the average finish was just worse than 7th. Several were heavy favorites, such as Mister Frisky, Indian Charlie and Point Given. I'll Have Another figures to go off at odds higher than the average, hopefully he will finish better than average.

So, what are his chances for breaking the streak? Here are the pros & cons, in bullet form.
Pros:

• He has early speed to escape his far-out post, but he doesn't need the lead (unlike others in here).
• His pedigree suggests ten furlongs will not be a problem, being by Flower Alley (a ten furlong winner) out of an Arch (a ten furlong winner) mare.
• He's proven in a fight, as shown in his Santa Anita Derby win.
• His only bad race was in a bog in the Hopeful last year over a track many struggled over.

Cons:

• Post #19 has never produced a Derby winner.
• The one time he shipped, he ran poorly.
• In the past ten years, 22 horses have had a break of 6 weeks longer between preps run within the 4 months. Their record is 22-1-1-1.
• The "drought" of 23 years. (obviously)

This blog think he has a strong chance, though with his outside post he could end up being parked out wide for most of the running, with nothing left turning for home. He is the 2nd choice of this blog. He'll need all the luck he can muster from the outside post.

So there is the chance of the Drought Breaker. Can he end it? We shall see. Good luck this weekend folks!

Big Cap Day

Santa Anita Handicap day has arrived with three grade 1 races in tow. They anchor the card as the last three races of the day, with the big one going off as the finale. Along with a food truck festival and other good things in the infield, it figures to be a good crowd on hand. Here are some brief thoughts on each stake:

Grade 1 Las Virgenes Stakes - One Mile - 3yo fillies

The first grade one on the card is for the fillies. This is the first grade one in the division this year and a prep for the Santa Anita Oaks next month. The wagering will be all over place with many options to place your wager. A 3yo race this time of year in SoCal without a Baffert trainee would be like a Los Angeles summer without sun (i.e. a shock). His charge is Eden's Moon. She won a maiden race by open lengths when stretched out to this distance last time out. She was forced to miss the Saint Ysabel S. due to minor illness, but she has worked swiftly since with several bullet workouts. But she will not get the lead. That will be Reneesgotzip. This daughter of City Zip has shown blazing speed each time out. She will be stretching out around two turns for the first time today. Made To Love Her finished behind Renee last time out in the Santa Ynez. She tries two turns on dirt for the first time today as well. Killer Graces is a grade 1 winner across town, but she seems to run better at Hollywood Park then on the dirt. This blog is going to pick Made To Love Her to take a stab at a price. In past years, this blog's pick has been finished second in this race more often than not, so maybe a backwheel exacta is in order?

Grade 1 Frank E. Kilroe Mile - One Mile (TURF) - 4yo & up 

Mr. Commons figures to be a heavy favorite against this field of eight. He has been well liked and well-championed by people as the "next big thing". He has strung together two straight wins at the meet, winning the Sir Beaufort (over Big 'Cap favorite Ultimate Eagle) and the Arcadia last time out, winning his first race against older. Jeranimo has beaten the favorite on this course at this trip just back in October. He has been working across town in steady fashion. He does need to come back off a subpar effort in the San Gabriel Handicap, though he was in an uncustomary spot (the lead) early on in the race. Mega Heat is 5-for-9 lifetime and improving each and every start after being dropped in for a tag back in August. Compari figures to be on the lead for today, and he has shown that he has no problem leading the field on a futile chase. The pick is Jeranimo, as he will be a better price and is probably as good an animal as the favorite. Mega Heat can offer value underneath.

Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap - One Mile & One-Quarter - 4yo & up

Setsuko. A horse whose name has been cursed, bellowed, and defamed over the last two years as his near misses in and exclusions from races have caused strife from others. This blog has witnessed this from afar as the horse, while talented and a real looker, never really interested as a betting concern. This blog has witnessed him school & race for three seasons now, but not until before his last race was their a change. Setsuko was gelded after his loss in the Pacific Classic. With that simple act, it seems that light has finally come on mentally for this horse. From the way he schools to the way he acts in the paddock, there is a subtle change for the better in his mannerisms. His "hanging" problem has seemingly been cut away with the ultimate equipment change. This blog witnessed  (and had video of before his camera was stolen) him bouncing back to the barn after his win last time out, acting like the race took nothing out of him. His energy levels caught the eye of everyone who saw him cross their path as they were heading out for the night. The distance is not a problem as well. All of that is why he is the "ALL IN" pick. Either this blog will go home happy or broke.

Good luck folks!

Sunshine Millions - California Races

This Saturday at the Great Race Place the Sunshine Millions will once again fill the stage with state-bred action. There have been some major changes in the program about what is run and the rules behind it. This year's edition brings together three stakes under the banner to help. There will be the ubiquitous food truck festival, along with a performance by Shiny Toy Guns. A good card all-around on this last Saturday in January. (Also on the card are two graded stakes, the Grade 1 Santa Monica and the Grade 3 Santa Ysabel Stakes, but those will be talked in a separate post.)

Before we talk about the races, let's go over the changes to the Sunshine Millions, as this year's program substantially different to what it has been in the pass. To put it bluntly, the only thing continuing on from last year is the Sunshine Millions name, at least when it comes to the Santa Anita races. No longer is it Florida-breds vs. Cal-breds like in the past. Now Santa Anita & Gulfstream Park will both hold state-bred races for the state they are located in instead of the two state-bred groups mixing. All six of the stakes that were part of the Sunshine Millions schedule are now schedule to run at Gulfstream Park. In its place at Santa Anita will be run three Cal-bred stakes taken from other parts of the stakes schedule to fill the gap. The three stakes snatched from elsewhere are the Sensational Star, the Crystal Water and the Valentine's Dancer. These stakes were all introduced in the 1990's for Cal-breds, and for this year will be run under the Sunshine Millions banner. Let's takes these races in order, starting with the Sensational Star.

The Sensational Star is a race down the hillside turf course at the about distance of 6 1/2 furlongs. First, let's scratch Luckarack (who will run in the first on the card instead against blog favorite CAPITAL ACCOUNT) and Mega Heat (who is entered in a race on Sunday instead). As this blog was about to be posted, news broke on Twitter that Caracortado is out of the race due to a minor foot issue. This dramatically changes the betting complexion of the race, as he figured to be the heavy favorite. The field is now a group of 5 lead by former graded stakes winner Compari.  This son of Redattore won the 2010 edition of this race gate-to-wire. His early speed is his biggest weapon, and he has used it very effectively. However, he has not shown the ability to pass and win, which is a big problem. Ain't No Other has only one way to go and that is to the lead. He appears to be faster earlier on than Compari, but if ANO's jock attempts to rate him back a bit, it could be to the detriment to both his mount and Compari, as it could lead to a speed duel. The pick is Red Defense (right). This other son of Redattore has won down the hill in the past, has shown the ability to rate and win, and figures to get a perfect stalking trip behind the leaders. The other two in the field are My Summer Slew, who previously won down this hill and comes in 2nd off a layoff; and Tamarack Smarty, who is slightly better at a mile than at this distance.

The Crystal Water returns off a one year hiatus with a surface and distance change. It is now a mile and one-sixteenth on the main track. (It was previously at a mile on the grass) This group of six is evenly matched and each have their own question marks. Legal Separation appears to be the fastest horse early, but can he last in his first attempt routing? Bluegrass Reward comes in off a solid win, and can pass, but can he turn the tide on those in this field who have beat him in the past? Spud Spivens ran a bad race in the Grade 2 San Fernando, but can he rebound off that effort over a surface (dirt) that he has never won over? Thirtyfirststreet just won at this distance at this track and previously won a similar cal-bred stake, but if he figures to be favored, why does the "musical chairs" jockey continue? Holladay Road won his only time on dirt, but can he prevail in his first time against stakes company? Macho Dorado just won here, but can he handle the step up from claiming company? With all these questions out there, this race is a tough one to pick. If you twisted my arm for a pick, I would take the favorite.

The last of the three state-bred stakes is the Valentine Dancer going one mile on the grass. This race was thrown into the air by the scratching of probable favorite Unzip Me, along with Cayanna. It is also being reported that La Sombre will also be scratched. That leaves a field of seven evenly matched females. The role of the favorite now will likely fall to Halo Dolly. This daughter of Popular has won more than 50% of her races lifetime. She won a race similar to this during the summer at Del Mar in the Solana Beach Handicap. She can sit mid-pack and make one run. She did lose to Antares World two back, but that may have been at a distance that is just too far for her. Antares World broke an 8 race losing streak in that win. She seems to prefer a target to run down, and she will get that today. The only horse in this race to defeat open company in a graded stake is California Nectar. She is a speed ball who has only one way to go, and that is fast early. This will be her first route on the grass since a distant 4th in the Miesque S. when she was two. There is not a lot of early speed, but there are serious questions about whether she wants to go this far. Secret Cove is by the underrated turf California sire Tribal Rule. Four of her five wins are on the turf course, and with the cut back to a flat mile, she has a big chance at a bit of a price. She is a must use on the any ticket, including the $250k guaranteed Luck P6 being offered involving these Sunshine Millions race.

For a look at the Florida Sunshine Millions races, please take a look at this post from my good friend Paul over at Picks and Ponderings on Chiago Horse Racing.

So there are some thoughts about the three SoCal races under the Sunshine Millions banner. It figures to be a festive day of racing. Whomever the readers out there land on, this blog wishes you good "Luck".

San Fernando Stakes + Some Video

To see the full thoughts from this blog on the Grade 2 San Fernando Stakes, please visit the Thorofan's Handicappers Corner, where this blogger goes over whether or not Tapizar can get an easy enough lead to take this field gate-to-wire. (Short version: The answer is "No".)

But before you go, take a look at what may become a new feature on this blog. Below are videos of the some of the contenders for this weekend's stakes action return to the barn after spending time schooling on Thursday (1/12). The first is of Tapizar, the second is of the Baffert-trained trio Prayer For Relief (San Fernando S.), Ellafitz (Paseana S.) and Candrea (Santa Ynez S.). Good luck this weekend folks.

Last Call for A Grade 1 in 2011

New Year's Eve is a time for celebration, remembrance and ending the new year with a bang.  The national graded stakes schedule has a similar ending. The last graded stake of the 2011 calendar is the Grade 1 La Brea Stakes going 7 furlongs for three year old fillies at the Great Race Place. This the last chance for these females to run against their own age group for Grade 1 glory. The field of nine has a mix of up-and-comers, graded stakes winners and a multiple Grade 1 winner as its favorite. Here is a brief run-down of the main competitors.

(Before we get into our thoughts about the La Brea Stakes, this blog is happy to announce the return of "Ten Top's T-Bred" Capital Account. Off since March, he runs in an allowance race that is the second half of the late double with the La Brea Stakes. We wish him luck and hopefully he stays healthy enough to have a productive 2012. Also note that fellow TTT Endorsement makes his second start off his near two year layoff on New Year's Day at Gulfstream Park.)

The probable favorite figures to be Turbulent Descent. This daughter of Congrats hopes to cap off a fine year with one more Grade 1 win, her 3rd of the year to go along with a Grade 2 victory. She looks to bounce back from a disappointing effort as the favorite in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint last time out at Churchill Downs. She has worked swiftly across town since her race, including two bullets. She seemed ready to run when she schooled in the paddock on Thursday (when the picture on the right was taken). Her regular pilot David Flores will be aboard. She figures to be 2-3 lengths off the expected fast pace, stalking and pouncing on the leaders in the stretch. Any further back could be detrimental to her chances based on how the track has been playing.


Great Hot exits the same race TD does, but finished well up the track behind her. She has a graded stakes win at this distance and her North American debut over this track was a jaw-dropping effort. Her trainer has stated that he should could be a little short for this race, but her swift workouts say he could be just being conservative with his thoughts. Home Sweet Aspen is the second choice on the morning line but will probably float up in the odds. She has run well over this track, but breaking from the rail her jockey's hand could be forced to go the lead. She is another with good works over the track, and looks to put that turf experiment behind her.

May Day Rose (right) comes off a brutal loss in the Grade 3 Chilukki on the BC Saturday undercard. She has also won a Grade 3 at this distance as well as a stakes over this track. Her positional speed will allow her to attend the pace without going all out to establish herself early. She will get first jump on the favorite if the race plays out how this blog figures it will. Even though she is the 8/1 5th choice on the morning line, this blog believes her final odds will be closer to 7/2. She was on her toes when she schooled on Thursday (at the same time as Turbulent Descent) as the picture shows. She really caught the eye the entire time in the paddock, and because of that, she will be the selection for this blog.


So there is a quick look at the last Grade 1 of the year. Can Turbulent Descent rebound after flopping as the favorite? Will May Day Rose or Great Hot add to their earlier 2011 graded stakes tallies with a Grade 1? Will a new face jump up and shock the world at a price? Good luck everybody!

A Four Pack of Stakes to Open the Santa Anita Meet

Opening day at The Great Race Place brings along 4 stakes as a present to the patrons. The action will start with the first race on the card, with the filly division of the Cal Breeders' Champion Stakes. A few races later, the rest of the stakes actions starts with male division of the Cal Breeders' Champion Stakes. Then the graded action starts up with the Grade 3 Sir Beaufort. Then the Grade 1 Malibu wraps up the card and the natural stakes pick 3. Let's get to the action.

The opener on the card is the filly division of the California Breeders Champion Stakes. Six entrants make up the field going seven furlongs, with a mix of some stakes tested horses and some up and comers. The favorite figures to be Ismene. She won the Anokia Stakes last time she ran in October, defeating highly regarded Sister Moon. She has solid speed, but 7 furlongs off two months layoff is not ideal. Willa B Awesome (right) has "danced every dance" in stakes competition this year, and looks to improve on the cutback. The pick is Tangerine Tickle. This daughter of Tribal Rule (as is Ismene) won her debut on turf across-town after a slow start. She appears that she may have some tracking speed to lay closer to the pace, and should come with a good rush at the end.

The open division of the Cal Breeders Champion Stakes brings together a group of 9. The favorite figures to be Stoney Fleece (right). This son of Decarchy captured the Grade 3 Generous (over turf) last time out. He benefited from a fast pace last time out, and the cutback in distance does not figure to hurt him, as he broke his maiden going a shorter distance. The only negative might be the return to dirt, where he ran a so-so 3rd. Passing Game comes off a stakes win up north at Golden Gate. This son of Game Plan will be making his debut over dirt today, but with the expected large amount of speed to be shown, he should get a good race set-up. Motown Men (also by Decarchy) is a need-the-lead type who should appreciate the cutback to one turn. While there is other speed, he has been already battle tested in stakes company.

The graded stakes action begins with the Grade 3 Sir Beaufort going one mile on the grass. The favorite figures to be Mr. Commons. While this son of Artie Schiller has never won a graded stakes, he has run second in several stakes against older, and ran a competitive fifth in the BC Mile. The streaking Ultimate Eagle comes off his Grade 1 win in the Hollywood Derby going 10 furlongs. Cutting back two furlongs does pose a bit of difficulty, especially since he appears to be a need-the-lead type and there appears to be other speed. Venomous and Cozy Kitten also come out of that race, and they would seem to appreciate the cutback to a shorter distance. But the pick is Comma To The Top (right). This former Grade 1 winner returned to the winner's circle in an allowance race last time out, has the speed to clear Ultimate Eagle early, make a move turning for home and just hold off the closers.

The final stake on the card is the Grade 1 Malibu. This long-standing race has a rich tradition of winners, including the great Spectacular Bid. This group does not have a clear standout this year, as the morning line favorite comes off some tough losses. The Factor (right) looked to be a force in the Sprint division this year until he ran two back-to-back sub-par races this fall. He gets off the rail after being stuck down there in his last two starts, and he is working rather stoutly for this race. There also appears not to be a copious amount of raw speed either, so it is possible that, if he is right, The Factor can cross-and-clear to the front and just keep going. But he is one of four for Baffert, with each of them having a shot. Hoorayforhollywood (the pick) comes off a close second in a stakes race at Delta, Smash has always been highly regarded of in the barn, and Racing Aptitude held off his older stablemate in a fast win. Trainer Steve Asmussen sends out three entrants to counter, including the very fast Rothko and the multiple graded stakes placed Wine Police. Throw in the shipper Associate from the Dick Dutrow barn (who brings Ramon Dominguez in tow) and it is a stout betting affair.

So there is a quick look at the stakes action on opening day at the Great Race Place. The action figures to be fast and furious, with plenty of high quality racing. Good luck everybody!

Santa Anita Starts the Fall Meet With A "Maddy"-ing Tough Stakes

With the change in the season to fall, the Southern California circuit returns to the Great Race Place at the foot of the San Gabriel Mountains. This year marks the first time in 43 years that the fall racing is not run by the Oak Tree Racing Association. Santa Anita has taken the dates from them after evicting them two years ago. Opening weekend will offer seven graded stakes spread over the three days, including five grade ones. The traditional commemorative stein given away has been replaced on the calendar by an ever popular food truck festival in the infield. With all of the changes about, the stakes schedule starts off in the same way it had in recent years, with a turf sprint. The Grade 3 race figures to produce multiple starters for the Breeders' Cup. Here is some thoughts about the first stake of the Santa Anita Fall meet.

The opening day feature is the Grade 3 Senator Ken Maddy Stakes for fillies and mares three year old and up going about six and a half furlongs down the hillside turf course. The defending champion is back in Unzip Me. This Cal-bred daughter of City Zip returns to defend her crown off a fine win at Del Mar. She is five for seven (with a second) down the hill in her career. She hopes to use this race as a springboard to the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint like last year, where she finished third. Her regular jockey Rafael Bejarano will be in the irons. While breaking from the inside posts is normally not ideal, the small field makes it less likely to have its normal negative effect.

The likely second choice figures to be blog favorite Tanda (right). This daughter of Sweetsouthernsaint finally broke her five-race losing streak in the Grade 3 Rancho Bernardo Handicap last time out, getting her first win of 2011. She moved into the Mike Mitchell barn prior to the win, and her new regular rider is Joe Talamo. It pained this blog to miss the win, but glad she made it to winner's circle.She will break to the outside of Unzip Me, hoping to get a nice stalking trip off of her. She has worked well since the win, finishing off her preparations with a bullet 5 furlong drill across town. She has a 4-2-1-0 record lifetime over this unique course. Her goal this year is the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint on the main track at seven furlongs. Under the allowance conditions of this race, she gives three lbs. to Unzip Me.

The other entrants are Separate Forest, who beat the top two back in April in the Grade 3 Las Cienagas; Broken Forest & Givine, who have traded decisions with each other and Separate Forest (All 3 finished behind Unzip Me in the Daisycutter last time out); and Waveline.

This race is the first of many Breeders' Cup preps at Santa Anita the next two weekends. This season is filled with hope from all the divisions. Who will go on to glory? Can Tanda avenge her loss from April? Will Unzip Me continue her winning ways all the way to Louisville? We shall see. Good luck everybody!

Santa Anita Meet End Awards

The 2010-2011 Santa Anita Winter-Spring meet is over, and it provided many highs and lows. From the scintillating performances on opening day to the painful lows of the the horses who did not survive the meet, this meet had a wide range of emotions. The efforts of some of the horses who ran deserve special acclaim. This post will celebrate a wide array of achievements, including which horse earned the Horse of The Meet honors according to this blog.

First up is the award for best claimer of the meet. The winner is Separate Forest (right). She climbed the ladder all the way from $25KN2L on the main track to a win in the Grade 3 Las Cienegas Handicap on Big Cap day over the heavily favored Unzip Me. This daughter of Forestry was claimed from the Richard Mandella barn by Doug O'Neill in her $25kN2L victory, and he quickly sent her up the ladder. The win in the Las Cienegas came only one week after she won an allowance race. She won four of her 6 starts, with her losses being in her first race of the meet in the Mandella barn in an allowance race and her 4th race, where she could not overcome a troubled trip. Congratulations to the connections who claimed her, making a shrewd decision.

The award for biggest disappointment is next, and it goes to the injury of Premier Pegasus on the Thursday before the Santa Anita Derby. This blog believed that he had a huge chance to be the one not only to break the 22 year long drought of no Santa Anita Derby winner going on to win the Kentucky Derby, but to end the 33 year end drought of not having a triple crown winner. His run in the San Felipe was devastating, and if he had won the Santa Anita Derby, he would be your current Kentucky Derby favorite. The Myung Kwon Cho barn suffered double the heartbreak this meet, as both PrePeg and Riveting Reason were knocked off the Derby trail with injuries. Hopefully they will come back from their maladies with the same energy and talent.

Next up is most impressive performance of the meet. There were several choices to choose from, with many of them coming in the maiden special weight ranks. The nominees are:
The Factor - Maiden special weight
Misremembered - Santana Mile
Maclean's Music - Maiden special weight win
Premier Pegasus - San Felipe Stakes
Runflatout - Maiden special weight

The winner is...


This son of Distorted Humor destroyed this group of maidens stylishly in his debut. He is now at Churchill Downs, along with the rest of the Steve Asmussen barn. Who knows what the future has in store for him. Maybe a start in the Derby Trial?

The next award is for most talked about race of the meet. That award goes to the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap. The drama-filled inquiry that followed stretched at least 13 minutes. In the end, there was no change, as Game On Dude was left up as the winner over Setsuko, with Quindici Man finishing third. In all the hubbub after the race that existed in social media after the decision, it is necessary to point out that almost all who wanted to disqualify Game On Dude wanted to place him fifth behind Twirling Candy, yet the only steward who voted to disqualify Game On Dude wanted to place him only as far back as second, behind Setsuko. This inquiry will live in the lore of this race, going along side the other much-talked about inquiries, the disqualification of The Wicked North in 1994 and the disqualification of Perrault in 1982.

The final award is for horse of the meet. The nominees are:
Cambina
Game On Dude
Malibu Pier
Midnight Interlude
Smiling Tiger

and the winner is...


CAMBINA!

This European import went three for four for the meet, with her only defeat being in her first start, which was heavily compromised by a loose horse who dropped the jockey at the start. The tiny filly went on to sweep the remaining three year old filly turf stakes, winning the Grade 3 La Habra, the China Doll and the Grade 2 Providencia Stakes. In a These races ranged from six & one-half furlong down the hill all the way to a mile and one-eighth. She won them all rolling from the back of the pack in dramatic style under jockey Garrett Gomez. This Jeff Bonde trainee (who also trains Smiling Tiger) could be pointed to races like the Del Mar Oaks later in the year. Maybe she can even become like another tiny filly who won the Providencia Stakes on her way to greater things, Megahertz.

So the books are closed on the Santa Anita meet, with some good performances, some iffy thoughts and plenty of fodder for people to talk about. Good luck to everybody as the scene shifts across town to the track of the lakes and flowers, Hollywood Park.

Drought Report - Time to Find Out Who Will Try To Be The Drought Breaker

Santa Anita Derby Day is here, and the time to find out who will be the one to try to end the 22 year-long drought is upon us. With the news that Santa Anita Derby favorite, blog favorite and this blog's choice to break the drought Premier Pegasus off the trail with a hairline fracture, and that Jaycito is also out of the race with a foot issue, the race is wide open for someone to take advantage and punch their ticket to the Kentucky Derby. The three horses who look the likeliest to take advantage of the top two's absence are Silver Medallion, Anthony's Cross and Mr. Commons. Let's break down these three.

Silver Medallion won the El Camino Real Derby last time out in a driving finish, closing off a suspect pace. He has worked well in the interim since the race, and his pedigree does not suggest any problem with the distance. He picks up Garrett Gomez to ride him in the race. While he has never ran on the dirt, he has trained well over the main track. He should sit a stalking trip off of Comma To The Top and Midnight Interlude, and look to take over turning for home. He will vie for favoritism, and he will be this blog's selection for the race. This blog thought he would finish a clear second behind PrePeg going in, and with his defection, this blog will move him up to the top spot. He needs a 1-2 finish to assure himself a spot in the gate on May 7th.

Anthony's Cross (right) won the Robert B Lewis Stakes last out in game fashion over Riveting Reason. He has improved each and every start, and the addition of blinkers help kept him focus on his task. His swift works in the interim (not the norm for his trainer Eoin Harty) and the services of Joel Rosario add to his appeal. He has won at the distance, so today's 1m & 1/8 should not be a problem. He figures to be sitting even with Silver Medallion in a stalking position. This blog respects his form, but thinks he might be just a cut below. His inability to put away Riveting Reason, who is a solid horse but not the gamest animal, is a major red flag. He will be tested today. He needs a 1-2-3 finish to assure himself of a spot in the gate on May 7th.

The third contender is Mr. Commons. This son of Artie Schiller built on his stylish maiden win on the grass in an allowance race last time on the dirt. He won a one mile race, grinding his way to victory. He has worked smartly since the race, popping bullet after bullet, which is not his trainer's style. The private clockers in southern California raved about his 7 furlong work on March 28th, oohing and aahing over its quality. His pedigree does not scream dirt, but he handled it fine. He figures to lay mid-pack in the race and make a run in the stretch. His trainer John Shireffs knows his way around the Derby picture, winning it with Giacomo in 2005. This blog thinks that while the hype is understandable, he may struggle against this type. The allowance field he beat in that win was not the strongest, as several have struggled in stakes competition, and the third place finisher Chiloquin broke his maiden for a tag. He would need to win the race to get into the gate come the first Saturday in May.

Others who have faint Derby aspirations are Bench Points, who ran a distant third in the San Felipe Stakes behind PrePeg and Jaycito, snapping his undefeated streak. He would need to run 1-2 to get in the Derby. Indian Winter, who looks to bounce back after a questionable effort in the Turf Paradise Derby. He would need to win to get in.

This Santa Anita Derby has lost some luster due to the top two abdicating, but this leaves open a new threat to gain the throne. Who will step up and earn the precious graded stakes earnings? Who will step up and take the mantle of Drought Breaker and place it upon themselves to break the drought? Can that horse break the drought? We shall see? Good luck everybody!

Drought Report - San Felipe Stakes

As the final stakes prep for the Santa Anita Derby arrives this weekend, most of the big guns show up to continue their preparations as the first Saturday in May draws ever closer. One of the leaders of the division makes his seasonal debut out of a new barn, and some fast maiden winners step up to stakes level in the Grade 2 $250k San Felipe Stakes. We shall also recap the Santa Anita Oaks, and catch up on some of the workers who are not running this weekend, but still might be a part of the Santa Anita Derby in a month's time. Let's start with a brief recap of the SA Oaks.

The Santa Anita Oaks field of five was made up of three Grade 1 winners, a stakes winner and a well-fancied runner. May Day Rose set sensible fractions on the front end, with sitting in 2nd. Behind her was A Z Warrior. Kilograeme sat third, with Turbulent Descent (right) fourth and Zazu trailing the field, and it stayed that way through the first half of the race. As they turned for home, Kilograeme dropped back to last, with Turbulent Descent and Zazu closing in on the front pair. With a 1/16th to go, Turbulent Descent and Zazu had both passed A Z Warrior, with May Day Rose backing out of the picture. At the wire, Turbulent Descent held off Zazu by a neck, with 5 & 1/2 lengths back to A Z Warrior in third. This was the second Grade 1 win for TD, and would put her in great position for the Kentucky Oaks on May 6th, But her connections have decided that this race proves that this distance is her upper limit. She will be kept in one-turn races, with the Grade 1 Acorn being a possibility. Zazu will probably ship out of town for her next start, either the Fantasy S. at Oaklawn or the Ashland S. at Keeneland.

Now we move onto this Saturday's San Felipe Stakes. A field of 10 comes together for the race, with the likely favorite to be Jaycito. This son of Victory Gallop was last seen taking the scenic route in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last November behind Uncle Mo, bolting in the first turn before rallying for a distant 5th. Since that race, he has changed barns, now residing in the Bob Baffert barn. He has worked superbly towards the race, and this former grade 1 winner at the distance will have to earn this victory. The other grade 1 winner in the field (also at the distance) is Comma To The Top. This son of Bwana Charlie looks to bounce back from a dull 4th in the El Camino Real Derby last month. He's had two steady works since the race, and will go off at much higher odds than he has in last three starts. Premier Pegasus looks to build off his third-place effort in the San Vicente Stakes on President's Day weekend. He may have tipped his hand about his readiness with a swift 5 furlong bullet in 57.60 last Saturday. Bench Points (right) brings his undefeated record into the race as he stretches out for the first time. He ran a smashing race in his first race this year, winning in strong time. Runflatout ran what may have been the fastest 6 furlong debut win EVER (according to the Illman blog on drf.com) in January and steps right into stakes company, as does Albergatti, who broke his maiden in only his second lifetime start. This will be a very tough race that will hopefully help clarify the jumbled picture.

News and Notes

• El Camino Real Derby winner Silver Medallion worked at SA on 3/7 6 furlongs in a 1:12 flat, 3rd best of 14.

• Robert E. Lewis winner Anthony's Cross worked over at Hollywood Park, going 5 furlongs in 1:01, earning the rare Breezing designation for the work.

• The runner-up Riveting Reason worked 5 furlongs on 3/5 at SA, going 5 furlongs in 1:00.80.

• Mr. Commons, who won an allowance race going a mile on 2/26, worked 4f in an easy 49.2 over at Hollywood Park

• Sway Away worked 5f in 1:02.80 in preparation for the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park next weekend, but still could run in the Santa Anita Derby.

So the last stop on the prep train arrives in the continuing search for the Drought Breaker. Can someone separate themselves from the pack and take control of the search? We shall see...

President's Day Stakes Action at Santa Anita

The President's Day holiday brings to the Great Race Place two graded stakes. First up is the Grade 3 La Habra Stakes for 3 year old fillies scheduled to go about 6.5 furlongs down the hillside turf course (though will it be actually run on the grass is questionable). Then an hour or so later, the Grade 2 Buena Vista Handicap going a mile on the grass for older fillies and mares goes off. Each race features at least on Grade 1 winner amongst their respective entrants. But Mother Nature has thrown a curveball into the mix. The large amount of precipitation that fell in Southern California last week definitely will have an effect on the races. While the Buena Vista will probably be run on the turf, albeit on a less than firm turf course, the La Habra might be run instead on the main track. Let's start with the La Habra.

The determination of whether or not the race will be run down the hill will not be made until Monday morning, but this blog thinks that the race will come off the grass, as the downhill portion of the turf course appears to take longer to dry out than the inner oval. Neither of the two prior Grade 1 winners would mind a switch to the main, as neither of them have run on the grass, and are not overly bred for it either. The #1 Rigoletta pulled a 32-1 shocker in winning the Grade 1 Oak Leaf going 1m & 1/16th over the Cushion Track at Hollywood Park. She was subsequently knocked out due to injury after that race, and has 5 works in two for her return. No matter which surface this race is run, it will be mark her first race over it, as she has run over solely synthetic in her career. The other Grade 1 winner is #3 A Z Warrior (right). This daughter of Bernardini won the Grade 1 Frizette at Belmont Park going a mile. After finishing dead last in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, she has been freshened for her 2011 campaign. She has several nice works for her return, including a bullet 5f work in 59 flat on 2/15. She beat Rigoletta when both were making their debuts in July 2010. A strong contender on either surface is #6 Bloemer Girl. This daughter of Bertrando won the Sweet Life Stakes at this very distance on the grass last time out in a race seriously affected by a loose horse (#7 She'll Heir). While the #6 has never raced over the dirt, her pedigree suggests that she will not have a problem with the dirt. The one worry with her is that she has not worked since her win in the Sweet Life on 1/22.

The Buena Vista Handicap goes a flat mile on the grass with 11 entrants + 2 also eligible. It is an evenly matched field, as shown by the tepid 4-1 morning line favorite in #11 Evening Jewel. This Grade 1 winner returns to the turf after winning the Sunshine Millions Distaff on the main track last month. She threw a solid work on the grass in the interim. She will struggle some breaking from the outside post, and her regular jockey Victor Espinoza will have to navigate a trip from out there. #5 Malibu Pier (right) returns to the grass after some mixed results on the main track. After running a solid second in the Grade 1 La Brea Stakes, she finished dead last in the El Encino Stakes. She has worked three times steadily in the interim, and seems to have bounced back from the poor effort no worse for wear. She has a good shot to work out a good stalking trip from her post. She gets in very light at a 115 lbs, 7 less than Evening Jewel and at least 2 lbs less than any of the other contenders. A horse who will be rolling from the back of the pack is #10 It Tiz. This daughter of Tiznow won a race that several of the competitors come out of, the Megahertz Stakes. Run at the same distance as the Buena Vista, It Tiz rallied from well off the pace to get up for the win. She has two good works in the interim and the race flow sets up will for her today. But will she find a way through without having to swing wide, especially with the rails at 15 feet?

Two solid stakes finish up the President's Day weekend at Santa Anita, and both hopefully will be on the grass. Who will use the La Habra as a springboard for bigger and better things? Who will win the Buena Vista to attempt to take control of the filly/mare mile division? We shall see. Good luck everybody!

Strub Stakes Day

This Saturday bring us 3 graded stakes to Santa Anita, all local preps for major races one month from now on Big Cap day. First up will be the Grade 1 Las Virgenes at a mile, which is a prep for the Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks. Next up is the Grade 3 Thunder Road at a mile on the grass, which is the prep for the Grade 1 Frank E. Kilroe Mile. Finally, the Strub series will finish up with the Grade 2 Strub Stakes, the last chance for 4 year olds to stay within their own age group before taking on older in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap. Let's kick off the stakes action with the only Grade 1 on today's card, the Las Virgenes.

The 4th race on the card, the Las Virgenes brings together a field of 6 (7 entered, but Bluegrass Chatter was a program scratch). This race marks the 2011 debut of Turbulent Descent, who capped off her 2010 with a win the Grade 1 Hollywood Starlet. She has been training smartly across town at her Hollywood Park home base, finishing off her preparations with a bullet 5 furlong work on 1/30. Going against her today is the winner of the Grade 3 Santa Ysabel May Day Rose and the 1-2-3 finishers of the Grade 2 Santa Ynez California Nectar, Zazu and Plum Pretty. May Day Rose cuts back a 1/16th of a mile off her win, and will be winging on the front end. California Nectar is running her third race and stakes win of the meet, and will be looking for her first win at a route of ground. Zazu has finished second to both CA Nectar and Zazu, and will look to avenge both. If Turbulent Descent can take to dirt, the rest look to be running for second.

4 races later, older males face-off in the Thunder Road Handicap. The field includes grade 1 winners Fluke and Victor's Cry. The surprising entrant is Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile winner Dakota Phone. He was expected to run in the San Antonio Handicap tomorrow, but the way the dirt is playing has apparently forced the hand of the connections to use this as a prep race for the Big Cap. The Cal-bred Colgan's Chip will once again try open company, hoping to take this field wire-to-wire while cutting back to a flat mile. This blog does not have a good feeling for this race, so all he will say is that Dakota Phone is a play against at short odds. While he is 1-for-5 on the grass, the shape of the race and the shorter turf stretch will play against him.

The final race of the day is the Strub Stakes. Former recent winners of the race are multiple Grade 1 winners Rock Hard Ten and Medaglia d'Oro. The heavy favorite, and rightfully so in this blog opinion, is Twirling Candy (right). Off his track-record effort in the Grade 1 Malibu, he stretches out once again and comes in with some sparkling works. He appears to be clearly the class of the field and could be a monster in the making. The only worry is that his two starts going a mile and an eighth have been "adventurous". This blog is intrigued by a new shooter invading from the east, Honour the Deputy. This recent private purchase is now in the Hollendorfer barn and apparently adjusted well to SoCal based on his works. With the rather uninspiring lot lined up here besides TC, he is this blog's choice to surprise and get up for second. This blog is taking a stand against any horse that comes out of the Grade 2 San Fernando Stakes.

Today will be a solid day of racing out at the Great Race Place, and hopefully will see some star worthy performances. Good luck everybody!

Drought Report - First Scan of the Radar

The first 2+ weeks of the Santa Anita meet have past, and we have witnessed several strong performances from the newly minted three year olds. This post is the first of what will be a weekly series tracking the horses that look to break "The Drought". "The Drought" is what this blog is calling the 22-year gap since the last winner of the Santa Anita Derby went on to win the Kentucky Derby. This series will take a look at any three year-old races (whether maiden, allowance or stakes) that occur during the meet that show any promise of having a potential "Drought Breaker". It will also list some of the works of these horses. Since this is the initial post, it will be longer than normal, as there are 8 races to recap, plus two to preview. The races will be reviewed in chronological order, starting with opening day.

This review start off with the 3yo probably most well known, The Factor (pictured). He won the first maiden special weight of the meet in sizzling fashion, setting a track record for 6 furlongs in his 2nd lifetime start. He went to he front and just kept going in a gate-to-wire win. He has come back to work a swift 5 furlongs on 1/9 for trainer Bob Baffert, and is nominated for Monday's San Pedro Stakes. This blog wonders if he can get the 1m & 1/8, much less 1m &1/4. The runner-up Houston Harbor has also come back to work, with two steady spins at 4f & 5f. This Steve Asmussen trainee will look to break his maiden next time out, maybe at a route of ground.

The race after, Cal-breds squared off in the California Breeders Champions Stakes. Thirtyfirststreet rallied from well off the pace to win. Will his sire was a multiple GSW on the turf, he seemed to handle the turf just fine. His pedigree suggests that he should have no problem as the distances increase, as both sides of his pedigree say "route". While the time was not super-fast, it was a solid race. 31st St. has come back to work three furlongs, and may be pointed to the Robert B. Lewis going 1m & 1/16th on February 12th.

The following day had the card lead off with a maiden special weight going a mile, in a race that was scheduled for the turf but run on the main track. Uncle Sam sat just off the speed, made his move turning for home and won in workmanlike manner. He won it in an alright time, but not sure what he beat in that race. This Baffert trainee came back to work on Sunday an easy 5 furlongs, and looks to build off his debut win in his next start, which is the Grade 3 Sham Stakes this Saturday.

Wednesday brought an allowance race that scratched down to a compact field of three. Awesome Patriot ran to the lead, with G3-placed Riveting Reason sitting right off his flank. RR engaged AP and dueled with him for a good while, but AP prevailed in the end. There is not much you can glean from this race, other than maybe Riveting Reason is better on the lead. Awesome Patriot by (who else) Bob Baffert, and came back to work on the 9th (as most of Baffert's charges did), and may end up being the odd man out in the barn. This blog thinks AP is destined for OP for his next race.

New Year's Eve brought us the Eddie Logan Stakes going mile on the grass. The winner was Silver Medallion. This son of Badge of Silver rallied from just off the pace. While the win was on turf, he should be just fine on the dirt. He "worked" for Asmussen on the 9th (a very busy day), but it was the slowest of the day. since it was only 9 days after the race, the time was irrelevant, as it was clearly just a leg stretcher.

We now skip ahead to this last weekend, where two maiden special weight bookend the early pick 3. In the 1st race, Hollywood Heat sat off a speedball and perfect-tripped his way to an easy win under a handride going 5 & 1/2 furlongs. It was only a field of 5, and did take 6 starts for him to break his maiden, but it was in a good time. Two races later, a field of 8 runners went a mile. The gate-to-wire winner was Wegner, trained by (guess who?) Bob Baffert. Wegner had to work for the victory, while under some urging. Like all of Baffert's winners listed here, he was ridden by Rafael Bejarano. Unlike the others, Wegner was a fat 8-1 on the board in winning his fourth lifetime start. Being by Dynaformer out of a Seeking the Gold mare, he should have zero issues with the distance.

Sunday brought a 5 horse field going 7 furlongs. First time starter Kilograeme hugged the rail and wore down the heavy favorite right before the wire. This son of Graeme Hall made his debut a winning one. He should have no problems with the distance, but for him to be the "Drought Breaker", he would have to be the first horse since 1881 to win the derby while not running at two.


Now that the (extended) recap is over, on to the preview of this weekend's first derby preps of the meet, The Grade 3 Sham Stakes and the San Pedro Stakes. The Sham will be run at a mile and 1/16th. It drew a field of five. Uncle Sam (who we mentioned earlier) is Baffert's lone entrant, and breaks from post 2. Tapizar figures to be the favorite off of his huge maiden win last out at Churchill Downs going a mile & 1/16th. This Asmussen trainee won by 10 1/2 lengths, and acquires the services of top rider Garrett Gomez. On Monday, the San Pedro Stakes will be run. Baffert nominated 5 of the 14 nominees, including Awesome Patriot and The Factor, along with Sinai (pictured), who was a swift debut winner at Hollywood Park last month from the rail at this distance. The interesting horse (if he runs) is Arcadian. This son of Songandaprayer blitzed the field in the Lost in the Fog Stakes at Turf Paradise, and threw a bullet 6f work in the interim.

The search is on for the horse. The one horse who will find his way to the winner circle come April 9th. That horse will carry the hopes of ended the drought. Who will be... The Drought Breaker?