With the imminent closure of Betfair Hollywood Park, the 36 graded stakes are up for grabs to the other tracks on the circuit. Below is listing is of each of graded stakes available, along with where the writer thinks they SHOULD go and where they probably WILL go.
As the chart shows, the reason it is 36 (and not 37) graded stakes is that the Jim Murray Memorial Hcp. has not been run in either of the last two years, which means it will not be graded next year.
Most of the stakes are just going to be carried over from one venue to the other with little change, with some getting the axe due to excessive duplication or monetary issues. The third column is what this blog wish could happen to the schedule instead, taking advantage of certain factors and/or scheduling conflicts. This blog's main suggestions would provide a drastically needed shake-up while throwing a lifeline to a struggling smaller track.
Including Golden Gate Fields
The biggest change suggested is that Golden Gate (whose owners also own Santa Anita) get the Grade 1 Hollywood Gold Cup and the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile. Moving the races there would not (initially) affect its Grade 1 status, as it is still within California and the basic timing and conditions of the race would remain unchanged. If this were to occur, two prep series could be set-up between the tracks, to help attract attention. The San Francisco Mile (GG) on Derby Day, the American (SA) 4 weeks later, and then Shoemaker Mile (GG) back at Golden Gate Fields on Independence Day would make up the first series (all older male grass miles). For the older main track routers, with the Mervyn Leroy Hcp (SA), Californian (SA), and the newly christened Golden Gate Gold Cup (GG) would make up a comparable series. (Golden Gate Fields will still run the G3 All-American on Memorial Day, as a local prep) Both could have some sort of bonus attached to get connections to run all three. The Golden Gate Gold Cup in particular could be marketed as a sort of test run for any horses who might want to consider a run in Dubai, with it being a similar Tapeta surface as the track at Meydan.
Including Los Alamitos
Los Alamitos is going to run 5 weeks (split among two weeks) next year, and the chance for them to pick up a few stakes that will get squeezed out of the schedule is there. This blog ended up thinking as many as five of them could end up at the track, with four of them being run in the Autumn meet (dark purple). Each of those four graded stakes would fit the configuration of the track AND have a high chance of not being picked up by Del Mar because of Del Mar's short meet. The G3 Laz Barrera was not run this spring/summer meet at Hollywood Park, and at 7 furlongs might have to change distance to be run at Los Alamitos, but it is an intriguing option to any 3yo sprinters who may not handle the Polytrack/facing older at Del Mar. The Hollywood Prevue could be available if Del Mar decides to not run a prep for the Hollywood Futurity, and Los Al could easily pick that up as well.
Hollywood Derby
Del Mar cannot run a ten-furlong grass race because of the configuration of its turf course. So that mean the Hollywood Derby would have to be shortened/lengthened to fit the course. Instead, this blog suggests that it be moved to Belmont Stakes weekend (or the weekend after) of the spring/summer meet. In this case, it would fill a natural void of races for 3yo turf horses early in the year, while also retaining its original distance. The other option is to move it to Santa Anita's autumn meet on closing weekend, forcing the Twilight Derby to opening weekend.
CUT?
Honestly, this blog didn't cut any of the races from his column because he decided to see how the changes made would affect the schedule. The guesses on which will be cut are based on assumptions from track gossip, logical guesses based on the schedule (including the recently released 2013-2014 Santa Anita Winter meet stakes schedule) and which stakes seemed to be the most redundant compared to the track they are headed. The one stake this blog feels most confident on being cut is the Sunset, as with the Whittingham being a G2 and the omission of the typical closing day feature, the San Juan Capistrano Hcp., from the winter/spring schedule (assuming that it will be placed at the end of the spring/summer meet instead), the numbers don't add up for the Sunset's inclusion on the stakes calendar.
So there is this blog's "ten cents" on what the graded stakes schedule should look like for Southern California after Hollywood Park closes. What's your take? Let it be known in the comments. Good luck everybody.
Showing posts with label Del Mar. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Del Mar. Show all posts
Wednesday, November 27, 2013
Friday, July 29, 2011
A Tiger Defending His Crown
As the second week of "where the turf meets the surf" rolls on, the Grade 1 Bing Crosby Stakes is the big race of the weekend. This Sunday at Del Mar brings together of a field of seven sprinters, including the defending champ Smiling Tiger. He looks to hold off several challengers to his throne, including the horse who defeated him back in January, Euroears. This race could end up having major end-of-the-year award ramifications. With the lack of star power in the handicap and three year old male divisions, Smiling Tiger could be the first horse who is exclusively a sprinter in a long time (maybe ever) to have a chance at Older Male and Horse of The Year honors if he runs the table. Let's break down this group, starting with the favorite and defending champ.
Smiling Tiger (right) Comes off a huge win in the Grade 1 Triple Bend Handicap at Hollywood Park last month. He bounced back from a trouble-filled 6th in the Churchill Downs Handicap, which is his only off the board finish in his career. He returns to the site of his first graded stakes win of his career last year, which occurred in this race. His win last year was the earliest win by a three year old versus older horses in graded stakes competition. He was the only three year old to beat older horses multiple times in graded stakes competition. He has the rail draw, which he is winless from in his career. This race is being run under stakes conditions, which means that he is giving at most four lbs. to his competitors. The lack of weight difference plus his consistency and gameness all lead to him defending his title.
The horse who defeated him earlier this year at Santa Anita is Euroears. This son of Langfuhr has not raced since finishing 2nd in the Dubai Golden Shaheen in March, finishing a solid second to top international sprinter Rocket Man. Euroears has worked in typical swift Baffert fashion coming off the layoff, with several bullets in tow. His jockey for the last few mounts Mike Smith chooses to stay with Amazombie, so top local jock Rafael Bejarano will take over the mount. His pedigree is not great for the Del Mar Poly, with his sire's runners having only win out of nineteen tries. With his need-the-lead style he may have some trouble getting separation from the other speed, especially Smiling Tiger.
Amazombie finished 3rd in Triple Bend behind Smiling Tiger with no apparent excuse. He's had some nice easy works since that race, with his last two coming over the track. It is possible that he could just being wearing down a little, with this being his 7th start this year and him running every four weeks like clockwork since last October. Mike Smith chooses him over Euroears. His pedigree is solid for his initial try over the Del Mar Poly, with both sire and damsire having good numbers.
The others in the field are Grade 1 winner Kinsale King, who was last seen being a late scratch in Dubai; Grade 2 winner Coffee Boy, who makes his first stakes start for his new trainer Mike Mitchell; and allowance runners Carbonite who makes his first career stakes start and Color of Courage, who followed two strong allowance wins with a poor 5th in the Triple Bend.
So there are some thoughts on the Bing Crosby. Can Smiling Tiger defend his crown, avenging his defeat to Euroears? Can Amazombie get that Grade 1 win, continuing his fairytale run for his connections? Will Kinsale King regain his past form and rise to glory? We shall see. Good luck everybody!
Smiling Tiger (right) Comes off a huge win in the Grade 1 Triple Bend Handicap at Hollywood Park last month. He bounced back from a trouble-filled 6th in the Churchill Downs Handicap, which is his only off the board finish in his career. He returns to the site of his first graded stakes win of his career last year, which occurred in this race. His win last year was the earliest win by a three year old versus older horses in graded stakes competition. He was the only three year old to beat older horses multiple times in graded stakes competition. He has the rail draw, which he is winless from in his career. This race is being run under stakes conditions, which means that he is giving at most four lbs. to his competitors. The lack of weight difference plus his consistency and gameness all lead to him defending his title.The horse who defeated him earlier this year at Santa Anita is Euroears. This son of Langfuhr has not raced since finishing 2nd in the Dubai Golden Shaheen in March, finishing a solid second to top international sprinter Rocket Man. Euroears has worked in typical swift Baffert fashion coming off the layoff, with several bullets in tow. His jockey for the last few mounts Mike Smith chooses to stay with Amazombie, so top local jock Rafael Bejarano will take over the mount. His pedigree is not great for the Del Mar Poly, with his sire's runners having only win out of nineteen tries. With his need-the-lead style he may have some trouble getting separation from the other speed, especially Smiling Tiger.
Amazombie finished 3rd in Triple Bend behind Smiling Tiger with no apparent excuse. He's had some nice easy works since that race, with his last two coming over the track. It is possible that he could just being wearing down a little, with this being his 7th start this year and him running every four weeks like clockwork since last October. Mike Smith chooses him over Euroears. His pedigree is solid for his initial try over the Del Mar Poly, with both sire and damsire having good numbers.
The others in the field are Grade 1 winner Kinsale King, who was last seen being a late scratch in Dubai; Grade 2 winner Coffee Boy, who makes his first stakes start for his new trainer Mike Mitchell; and allowance runners Carbonite who makes his first career stakes start and Color of Courage, who followed two strong allowance wins with a poor 5th in the Triple Bend.
So there are some thoughts on the Bing Crosby. Can Smiling Tiger defend his crown, avenging his defeat to Euroears? Can Amazombie get that Grade 1 win, continuing his fairytale run for his connections? Will Kinsale King regain his past form and rise to glory? We shall see. Good luck everybody!
Thursday, September 9, 2010
Thoughts on the Last 2 Weeks
As promised yesterday, this post is about my thoughts about the events that took place during the time i could not post. I will be starting from the day of the Travers through the Hopeful at Saratoga, then switch to the west coast for thoughts on the events from the Pacific Classic to the Del Mar Futurity.
- The stakes on the Travers undercard were underwhelming. All 3 were won by gate-to-wire winners over a speed favoring track. I'm not sure what to make of the winners of the Victory Ride and the Ballerina, but Discreetly Mine winning the King's Bishop was a bit of a disappointment. Not only did my pick D'funnybone did nothing, but DM's win inspired nothing. I question whether he will have an impact come the first Saturday in November at Churchill in either the Sprint or the Dirt Mile.
- The Travers itself was a great race to watch as Afleet Express just held off Fly Down at the wire by the slimmest of noses. Both the winner and the runner-up showed they were very game. Super Saver further cemented himself as another in the string of Derby winning one-hit wonders. Not sure how this group of three year-olds will fair against older, as most of the races have been very middling.
- As this blog thought, Rachel Alexandra did not win the Personal Ensign. However, much to the blog's dismay, Life At Ten was not the one to defeat her. Rather, it was longshot outsider Persistently. Wearing the same colors as the horse who's name graces the stake, she ground her way to victory. It appears that Rachel just cannot run a mile and quarter effectively, especially with what she has showed this year. She should be pointed to the Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic, where she would be the favorite and have a much better chance of winning. But she will still have to deal with Life at Ten, who's run was very disappointing. Maybe there is some truth to the theory that Malibu Moon's at Saratoga struggle at a mile and a quarter. Let us see what Pletcher has in store for her. This blog still has faith in Life at Ten that she will prevail on November 5th.
- It was a bad time for the Asmussen barn, as not only did Rachel lose the Personal Ensign, but he lost both Kantharos and Majesticperfection to injury. Kantharos, a promising two-year-old who facilely won the Grade 2 Saratoga Special in last race, suffered a career-ending injury in training for the Grade 1 Hopeful. Majesticperfection suffered a career-ending injury on Sunday while continuing preparations for the Grade 1 Vosburgh S. at Belmont. Both leave gaping holes in their respectful divisions, and will be sorely missed. This blog thought Majesticperfection was a very strong contender for the BC Sprint. His absence leaves this blog scrambling for a selection in that race. Maybe Atta Boy Roy, the winner of the CD Sprint on Derby Day.
- With Kantharos out, heavy favorite Boys of Toscanova disposed of three overclassed rivals with ease in the Hopeful. While he won with ease, one has to question how far he will go, being a son of Officer, who failed in numerous attempts at two-turns. We shall see, but as of now, he is the de facto leader of the division.
Now off to the West Coast!
- The Pacific Classic anchored a three stake day at Del Mar. In the Del Mar Mile, Lava Man's 1/2 bro Enriched finally broke through in a stake with his gutty win. In the Pat O'Brien, Baffert's recent acquistion El Brujo made his Del Mar debut a winning one by blitzing his rivals. This charge will hopefully be pointed to the BC Dirt Mile, as he appears to like an elongated one-turn race. In the Pacific Classic, Richard's Kid defended his title under a patented Mike Smith ride from the back of the pack. He became only the third horse to defend his title, along with Tinner's Way and Skimming. His win continues the pass-the-buck nature of the older male division, where the group beats up on one another. Furthermore, while Richard's Kid has excelled over the synthetic, one wonders what the switch to dirt will bring. This blog thinks that it will not be good.
- Tell A Kelly capitalize on a hot pace set by favorite Wickedly Perfect in the Grade 1 Darley Del Mar Debutante to score the victory. Wickedly Perfect gamely held on for second. Both look to have a bright future going forward, and may have a rematch in Grade 1 Oak Leaf at Oak Tree at Hollywood Park. Both should have no problem with the added distance. Maybe this will be the beginning of another rivalry, a la Blind Luck and Evening Jewel. In the Del Mar Futurity, J P’s Gusto continue his reign over the the Southern California two year-olds with a sparkling victory. He blew apart the field after setting a solid pace, drawing off to win by 4 3/4 lengths. Jaycito closed out of the clouds to get the place spot. This blog feels that Jaycito is the one to watch going forward, as J P may have hit his limit when it comes to distance. J P’s pedigree does not really lend himself to go more than a mile.
- The last topic that shall receive comment is the situation that occurred in the Del Mar Derby. Twirling Candy won in a swift time, but not without controversy. Coming into the backstretch, he shied away from something in the infield and bolted outward several paths, carrying Summer Movie with him. Summer Movie eventually finished a well-beaten last. Yet no disqualification occurred. This blog went back-and-forth over whether Twirling Candy should have been disqualified. Both sides of the argument had merit. But this blog felt that a disqualification should have taken place. The interference inflicted upon Summer Movie not only cost him several lengths, but also how the horse would run. The jockey on Summer Movie had to ask his horse for significantly more energy to regain his previous position. The fact that the horse finished last should not obscure the fact the amount of ground lost due to the interference, plus the forced expenditure of energy to regain the position lost, is basis enough to warrant the disqualification.
Leaving the much-talked about decision aside, the field Twirling Candy beat was weak. The southern California 3 year-old turf division is one of the worst out here. It is the only division which has not had a representative hit the board in a stake outside of California. The weakness of the division means that while his win was nice, we did not learn much about him. With plans for him to head back to the main track for the Goodwood Stakes, then the dirt in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, it is fair to question how well he will fair against older. Even with the parity-filled but suspect group of older horses in SoCal, Twirling Candy would appear to be up against it once he faces older.
Why do the connections chose to move TC to the main track and point to the Breeders’ Cup Classic with him instead of his stablemate Sidney’s Candy is something to ponder. Is it that they believe that TC is that good? Or is it an indictment on whether SC cannot get the mile and a quarter? This blog feels that is more the latter. Twirling Candy’s pedigree will not have a problem with the distance, unlike SC, who showed in the Derby that he may have an issue with it..The pedigree for TC also leans considerably more to grass. This blog feels that he will not move up on the switch to dirt, something he would need to do in order to compete with the likes of Blame, Zenyatta or Quality Road.
So there is my “ten cents” on the past two weeks. As always, please comment below if you agree or disagree with anything i have said. Now that review of the past is complete, what was learned that can be used in the future? We shall see.
- The stakes on the Travers undercard were underwhelming. All 3 were won by gate-to-wire winners over a speed favoring track. I'm not sure what to make of the winners of the Victory Ride and the Ballerina, but Discreetly Mine winning the King's Bishop was a bit of a disappointment. Not only did my pick D'funnybone did nothing, but DM's win inspired nothing. I question whether he will have an impact come the first Saturday in November at Churchill in either the Sprint or the Dirt Mile.
- The Travers itself was a great race to watch as Afleet Express just held off Fly Down at the wire by the slimmest of noses. Both the winner and the runner-up showed they were very game. Super Saver further cemented himself as another in the string of Derby winning one-hit wonders. Not sure how this group of three year-olds will fair against older, as most of the races have been very middling.
- As this blog thought, Rachel Alexandra did not win the Personal Ensign. However, much to the blog's dismay, Life At Ten was not the one to defeat her. Rather, it was longshot outsider Persistently. Wearing the same colors as the horse who's name graces the stake, she ground her way to victory. It appears that Rachel just cannot run a mile and quarter effectively, especially with what she has showed this year. She should be pointed to the Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic, where she would be the favorite and have a much better chance of winning. But she will still have to deal with Life at Ten, who's run was very disappointing. Maybe there is some truth to the theory that Malibu Moon's at Saratoga struggle at a mile and a quarter. Let us see what Pletcher has in store for her. This blog still has faith in Life at Ten that she will prevail on November 5th.
- It was a bad time for the Asmussen barn, as not only did Rachel lose the Personal Ensign, but he lost both Kantharos and Majesticperfection to injury. Kantharos, a promising two-year-old who facilely won the Grade 2 Saratoga Special in last race, suffered a career-ending injury in training for the Grade 1 Hopeful. Majesticperfection suffered a career-ending injury on Sunday while continuing preparations for the Grade 1 Vosburgh S. at Belmont. Both leave gaping holes in their respectful divisions, and will be sorely missed. This blog thought Majesticperfection was a very strong contender for the BC Sprint. His absence leaves this blog scrambling for a selection in that race. Maybe Atta Boy Roy, the winner of the CD Sprint on Derby Day.
- With Kantharos out, heavy favorite Boys of Toscanova disposed of three overclassed rivals with ease in the Hopeful. While he won with ease, one has to question how far he will go, being a son of Officer, who failed in numerous attempts at two-turns. We shall see, but as of now, he is the de facto leader of the division.
Now off to the West Coast!
- The Pacific Classic anchored a three stake day at Del Mar. In the Del Mar Mile, Lava Man's 1/2 bro Enriched finally broke through in a stake with his gutty win. In the Pat O'Brien, Baffert's recent acquistion El Brujo made his Del Mar debut a winning one by blitzing his rivals. This charge will hopefully be pointed to the BC Dirt Mile, as he appears to like an elongated one-turn race. In the Pacific Classic, Richard's Kid defended his title under a patented Mike Smith ride from the back of the pack. He became only the third horse to defend his title, along with Tinner's Way and Skimming. His win continues the pass-the-buck nature of the older male division, where the group beats up on one another. Furthermore, while Richard's Kid has excelled over the synthetic, one wonders what the switch to dirt will bring. This blog thinks that it will not be good.
- Tell A Kelly capitalize on a hot pace set by favorite Wickedly Perfect in the Grade 1 Darley Del Mar Debutante to score the victory. Wickedly Perfect gamely held on for second. Both look to have a bright future going forward, and may have a rematch in Grade 1 Oak Leaf at Oak Tree at Hollywood Park. Both should have no problem with the added distance. Maybe this will be the beginning of another rivalry, a la Blind Luck and Evening Jewel. In the Del Mar Futurity, J P’s Gusto continue his reign over the the Southern California two year-olds with a sparkling victory. He blew apart the field after setting a solid pace, drawing off to win by 4 3/4 lengths. Jaycito closed out of the clouds to get the place spot. This blog feels that Jaycito is the one to watch going forward, as J P may have hit his limit when it comes to distance. J P’s pedigree does not really lend himself to go more than a mile.
- The last topic that shall receive comment is the situation that occurred in the Del Mar Derby. Twirling Candy won in a swift time, but not without controversy. Coming into the backstretch, he shied away from something in the infield and bolted outward several paths, carrying Summer Movie with him. Summer Movie eventually finished a well-beaten last. Yet no disqualification occurred. This blog went back-and-forth over whether Twirling Candy should have been disqualified. Both sides of the argument had merit. But this blog felt that a disqualification should have taken place. The interference inflicted upon Summer Movie not only cost him several lengths, but also how the horse would run. The jockey on Summer Movie had to ask his horse for significantly more energy to regain his previous position. The fact that the horse finished last should not obscure the fact the amount of ground lost due to the interference, plus the forced expenditure of energy to regain the position lost, is basis enough to warrant the disqualification.
Leaving the much-talked about decision aside, the field Twirling Candy beat was weak. The southern California 3 year-old turf division is one of the worst out here. It is the only division which has not had a representative hit the board in a stake outside of California. The weakness of the division means that while his win was nice, we did not learn much about him. With plans for him to head back to the main track for the Goodwood Stakes, then the dirt in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, it is fair to question how well he will fair against older. Even with the parity-filled but suspect group of older horses in SoCal, Twirling Candy would appear to be up against it once he faces older.
Why do the connections chose to move TC to the main track and point to the Breeders’ Cup Classic with him instead of his stablemate Sidney’s Candy is something to ponder. Is it that they believe that TC is that good? Or is it an indictment on whether SC cannot get the mile and a quarter? This blog feels that is more the latter. Twirling Candy’s pedigree will not have a problem with the distance, unlike SC, who showed in the Derby that he may have an issue with it..The pedigree for TC also leans considerably more to grass. This blog feels that he will not move up on the switch to dirt, something he would need to do in order to compete with the likes of Blame, Zenyatta or Quality Road.
So there is my “ten cents” on the past two weeks. As always, please comment below if you agree or disagree with anything i have said. Now that review of the past is complete, what was learned that can be used in the future? We shall see.
Tuesday, September 7, 2010
Del Mar Futurity - Will the Del Mar meet end with Gusto?
Before we begin, i need to apologize for my lack of posts. I had a computer issue that left me without one from Travers Day up until this last weekend. I apologize and will attempt to make it up to you over the coming weeks.
Wednesday is closing day at Del Mar. The traditional closing day feature is the 63rd running of the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity, run at 7 furlongs. This race has had some great winners such as Silver Charm, Bertrando and Best Pal. Recent victors are Stevie Wonderboy and Lookin at Lucky. Four of the last six winners (Declan's Moon, Stevie Wonderboy, Midshipman, Lookin at Lucky) have gone one to win the Eclipse Award for two year old male. Two of those also won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (Stevie Wonderboy, Midshipman). Who will join the historic list of winners? Here is the field:
#1 Jaycito M Garcia 12/1
#2 Riveting Reason A Solis 12/1
#3 McKenzies Way D Flores 8/1
#4 J P's Gusto P Valenzuela 5/2
#5 Just Imagine M Pedroza 20/1
#6 Major Art (GB) M Smith 8/1
#7 Western Mood J Rosario 7/2
#8 Indian Winter R Bejarano 5/1
#9 Comma to the Top C Nakatani 20/1
#10 Road Ready V Espinoza 8/1
#11 Gahnzo Bob A Quinonez 30/1
The morning line favorite is #4 J P's Gusto. This son of Successful Appeal has swept the 2yo stakes in Southern California so far and looks to continue the trend with a victory. He has 3 steady works in the interim. He is rather tractable, as he has come from just off the pace, but can assert himself on the lead, as he did last time out in the Grade 2 Best Pal. Three steady works, including the last one in a crisp 4f work in 46 & 4/5, shows that he is still in top form. But he is not the selection.
The selection is #7 Western Mood. This son of West Acre finished a so-so third last time out in the Best Pal. This blog admits to picking Western Mood the last two times against J P's Gusto. J P was simply the better horse both times, but this is the best time to turn the tables. Too close to the pace last time out, he will hopefully be given a more patient ride this time by jockey Joel Rosario. He totes 3 nice works, including a smart 5 furlong work last time out in 1:00 & 3/5. He will have no problem with the distance, and should get a nice trip with all of the potential front end horses signed up for the race.
The most interesting horse in this race to this blog is the British invader, #6 Major Art. This British-born son of Compton Place finished off the board in his most recent start 24 days ago in the listed stake Prix Francois Boutin at Deauville in France going 7 furlongs over the soft going. He previously finished 3rd in a Grade 3 at Goodwood in England. This is his first start over a synthetic track. He has been supplemented into this race by his new connections for his first start in the U.S. and for trainer Eric Kruljac. Major Art will be ridden by jockey Mike Smith, who has good numbers when riding for Kruljac. Will he take advantage of the classic "fresh off the plane" angle to score the upset?
Others to consider are: #8 Indian Water who won smartly 1st time out for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. (Also the trainer of #7) He will have the services of leading rider Rafael Bejarano and has two maintenance works; #1 Jaycito who lead most of the way in his debut until the #8 caught him in the final strides. He has experience with the rail and should be winging from the inside; and #3 McKenzies Way, who blasted a field of maidens last out gate-to-wire.
This should be a great race to determine the current top 2yo on the west coast. Will the chalk prevail once again? Will revenge be exacted instead? Will a new shooter shock the world? We shall see what happens as this appears to be a smashing renewal of the Del Mar Futurity. Hopefully a future star will announce his presence to the world with a scintillating performance.
Wednesday is closing day at Del Mar. The traditional closing day feature is the 63rd running of the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity, run at 7 furlongs. This race has had some great winners such as Silver Charm, Bertrando and Best Pal. Recent victors are Stevie Wonderboy and Lookin at Lucky. Four of the last six winners (Declan's Moon, Stevie Wonderboy, Midshipman, Lookin at Lucky) have gone one to win the Eclipse Award for two year old male. Two of those also won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (Stevie Wonderboy, Midshipman). Who will join the historic list of winners? Here is the field:
#1 Jaycito M Garcia 12/1
#2 Riveting Reason A Solis 12/1
#3 McKenzies Way D Flores 8/1
#4 J P's Gusto P Valenzuela 5/2
#5 Just Imagine M Pedroza 20/1
#6 Major Art (GB) M Smith 8/1
#7 Western Mood J Rosario 7/2
#8 Indian Winter R Bejarano 5/1
#9 Comma to the Top C Nakatani 20/1
#10 Road Ready V Espinoza 8/1
#11 Gahnzo Bob A Quinonez 30/1
The morning line favorite is #4 J P's Gusto. This son of Successful Appeal has swept the 2yo stakes in Southern California so far and looks to continue the trend with a victory. He has 3 steady works in the interim. He is rather tractable, as he has come from just off the pace, but can assert himself on the lead, as he did last time out in the Grade 2 Best Pal. Three steady works, including the last one in a crisp 4f work in 46 & 4/5, shows that he is still in top form. But he is not the selection.
The selection is #7 Western Mood. This son of West Acre finished a so-so third last time out in the Best Pal. This blog admits to picking Western Mood the last two times against J P's Gusto. J P was simply the better horse both times, but this is the best time to turn the tables. Too close to the pace last time out, he will hopefully be given a more patient ride this time by jockey Joel Rosario. He totes 3 nice works, including a smart 5 furlong work last time out in 1:00 & 3/5. He will have no problem with the distance, and should get a nice trip with all of the potential front end horses signed up for the race.
The most interesting horse in this race to this blog is the British invader, #6 Major Art. This British-born son of Compton Place finished off the board in his most recent start 24 days ago in the listed stake Prix Francois Boutin at Deauville in France going 7 furlongs over the soft going. He previously finished 3rd in a Grade 3 at Goodwood in England. This is his first start over a synthetic track. He has been supplemented into this race by his new connections for his first start in the U.S. and for trainer Eric Kruljac. Major Art will be ridden by jockey Mike Smith, who has good numbers when riding for Kruljac. Will he take advantage of the classic "fresh off the plane" angle to score the upset?
Others to consider are: #8 Indian Water who won smartly 1st time out for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. (Also the trainer of #7) He will have the services of leading rider Rafael Bejarano and has two maintenance works; #1 Jaycito who lead most of the way in his debut until the #8 caught him in the final strides. He has experience with the rail and should be winging from the inside; and #3 McKenzies Way, who blasted a field of maidens last out gate-to-wire.
This should be a great race to determine the current top 2yo on the west coast. Will the chalk prevail once again? Will revenge be exacted instead? Will a new shooter shock the world? We shall see what happens as this appears to be a smashing renewal of the Del Mar Futurity. Hopefully a future star will announce his presence to the world with a scintillating performance.
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
How the Divisions in Southern California Stack Up
As the biggest race of the Del Mar meet will be run this weekend, several divisions are in flux. Leaders have been lost due to different reasons. Some have not have a clear leader for a while. Others have a standard-bearer that has been around for years. Today's post will competitively rank the 8 main divisions in Southern California. The 8 divisions are Older male, Older female, 3yo male, 3yo female, Sprint - male, Sprint - female, Turf - male and Turf - female. I combined the 3yo categories due to the constant crossover from one surface to the other in the male division made it hard to separate the two groups.
The criteria for these rankings are: Biggest star in the division, depth, overall records, results from outside SoCal and overall perception of the division
1. 3 year old female - Top horses: Blind Luck, Evening Jewel, Harmonious
The top division in Southern California is the three year-old fillies. The top two in the country reside here in Blind Luck, who shipped out once again, this time to Saratoga, to win the Grade 1 Alabama, and Evening Jewel, who won her third straight grass stakes with the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks. She defeated Grade 1 winner Harmonious and the eastern invader Perfect Shirl. The only reason this group does not have a ten is that it does not have its top sprinter in Tanda, currently taking some time off and being pointed for a December return. Harmonious finished second in the Del Mar Oaks after an extremely wide trip.
Ranking: 9 Chocolate-covered Pickles
2. Older female - Top horse: Zenyatta
The second spot goes to literally just Zenyatta. Without an able foil currently in training, this blog could not put her division in the top spot due to the lack of depth. Zenyatta is clearly the best horse in Southern California, but she does not have anyone to go with her. The 2nd best older filly is maybe Lilly Fa Pootz on the grass, or maybe Sweet August Moon sprinting, but they are so far back of the top spot that the do not lend enough support to move this division higher.
Ranking: 8 1/2 Chocolate-covered Pickles
3. Male Sprint - Top horses: California Flag, EZ Gentleman, Kinsale King
This division has parity in it, but is buoyed by the return of California Flag to the turf flank of the division. EZ Gentlemen was unable to catch lonely leader Smiling Tiger in the Bing Crosby, but has a chance to avenge that loss this Saturday in the Pat O'Brien. Kinsale King, the winner of the Dubai Golden Shaheen, has returned to Southern California after an excursion in Europe and is on the worktab, with the most recent work happening today at Hollywood Park.
Ranking: 6 1/2 Chocolate-covered Pickles
4. Older Male (Turf) - Top horses: The Usual Q T, California Flag, Victor's Cry
This division has a clear leader in The Usual Q T, who easily won the Eddie Read handicap last night. He will try the Del Mar Poly this Saturday in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic. The number two is the aforementioned California Flag, who returned off the bench to win the Green Flash Handicap last week. Victor's Cry finished 2nd behind Q T in the Eddie Read.
Ranking: 6 Chocolate-covered Pickles
5. 3 Year Old male - Top horses: Lookin at Lucky, Sidney's Candy, Smiling Tiger
The reason that this group is this low is that generally feeling that this division nationwide is weak, especially on the main track. While the division leader resides in Southern California in Lookin At Lucky, that does not necessarily make this ranking higher. Sidney's Candy lands number two after his fast win in the La Jolla Handicap. Smiling Tiger got away with an easy pace last time out while upsetting the Bing Crosby, and now will attempt to validate that win in this weekend's Pat O'Brien.
Ranking: 5 1/2 Chocolate-covered Pickles
6 (tie). Older Male (Main Track) - Top horses: Awesome Gem, Dakota Phone, Temple City, Richard's Kid
This division is lead by Awesome Gem, who won the Hollywood Gold Cup last out. He always comes with his run, and finally got his elusive Grade 1 win last out. Dakota Phone finally got his graded stakes win last out when he won the local prep for this race, the Grade 2 San Diego Handicap. Temple City finally got the graded stakes monkey of his back with a win the Grade 3 Cougar Handicap. Richard's Kid is still looking for his first win since February. The reason this group is ranked so low is two-fold. One, the top two horses in the division are currently not a part of it. Rail Trip, who was considered the division leader until his loss in Gold Cup, has been moved by his owners to the East Coast. Misremembered has only had one recent work since his win the Santa Anita Handicap, and is looking to make a return in a prep race for the Breeders' Cup Classic. Two, the top two who are currently running have a tendency to finish for minor placings more often than not. These reasons are why this division is ranked so low.
Ranking: 4 Chocolate-covered Pickles
6. (tie) Female Sprint - Top horse: Sweet August Moon
This already underwhelming group was further weakened by the injury to Free Flying Soul, which caused her to scratch from the Rancho Bernardo Handicap. Sweet August Moon has won the last two graded stakes for female sprinters out here. This group awaits the return of Mona De Momma, who parlayed the Las Flores Handicap into a win of the Grade 1 Humana Distaff at Churchill Downs. Until then, this division has a steady but unproven leader.
Ranking: 4 Chocolate-covered Pickles
8. Older Female (Turf) - Top horses: Lilly Fa Pootz, Gotta Have Her
This division was left without a leader when Tuscan Evening tragically passed away last week after a workout. This division is like the older females on the main track, in which there was a clear leader. Without her though, this division is in disarray. The current leader is former $16k claimer Lilly Fa Pootz, who finished 2nd to Midwest invader Wasted Tears in the Mabee Handicap. Gotta Have Her finished behind Lilly in the race. This division lakes a clear leader and is punished since only Gotta Have Her has shown her quality repeatedly in stakes.
Ranking: 3 Chocolate-covered Pickles
There is this blog's ranking of the divisions in Southern California. Some may disagree with this list. If so, this blog invites you to "give your ten cents" worth and put up your own list in the comments. This weekend's stakes action will have a definite impact on the rankings, so let's see how things unfold.
The criteria for these rankings are: Biggest star in the division, depth, overall records, results from outside SoCal and overall perception of the division
1. 3 year old female - Top horses: Blind Luck, Evening Jewel, Harmonious
The top division in Southern California is the three year-old fillies. The top two in the country reside here in Blind Luck, who shipped out once again, this time to Saratoga, to win the Grade 1 Alabama, and Evening Jewel, who won her third straight grass stakes with the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks. She defeated Grade 1 winner Harmonious and the eastern invader Perfect Shirl. The only reason this group does not have a ten is that it does not have its top sprinter in Tanda, currently taking some time off and being pointed for a December return. Harmonious finished second in the Del Mar Oaks after an extremely wide trip.
Ranking: 9 Chocolate-covered Pickles
2. Older female - Top horse: Zenyatta
The second spot goes to literally just Zenyatta. Without an able foil currently in training, this blog could not put her division in the top spot due to the lack of depth. Zenyatta is clearly the best horse in Southern California, but she does not have anyone to go with her. The 2nd best older filly is maybe Lilly Fa Pootz on the grass, or maybe Sweet August Moon sprinting, but they are so far back of the top spot that the do not lend enough support to move this division higher.
Ranking: 8 1/2 Chocolate-covered Pickles
3. Male Sprint - Top horses: California Flag, EZ Gentleman, Kinsale King
This division has parity in it, but is buoyed by the return of California Flag to the turf flank of the division. EZ Gentlemen was unable to catch lonely leader Smiling Tiger in the Bing Crosby, but has a chance to avenge that loss this Saturday in the Pat O'Brien. Kinsale King, the winner of the Dubai Golden Shaheen, has returned to Southern California after an excursion in Europe and is on the worktab, with the most recent work happening today at Hollywood Park.
Ranking: 6 1/2 Chocolate-covered Pickles
4. Older Male (Turf) - Top horses: The Usual Q T, California Flag, Victor's Cry
This division has a clear leader in The Usual Q T, who easily won the Eddie Read handicap last night. He will try the Del Mar Poly this Saturday in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic. The number two is the aforementioned California Flag, who returned off the bench to win the Green Flash Handicap last week. Victor's Cry finished 2nd behind Q T in the Eddie Read.
Ranking: 6 Chocolate-covered Pickles
5. 3 Year Old male - Top horses: Lookin at Lucky, Sidney's Candy, Smiling Tiger
The reason that this group is this low is that generally feeling that this division nationwide is weak, especially on the main track. While the division leader resides in Southern California in Lookin At Lucky, that does not necessarily make this ranking higher. Sidney's Candy lands number two after his fast win in the La Jolla Handicap. Smiling Tiger got away with an easy pace last time out while upsetting the Bing Crosby, and now will attempt to validate that win in this weekend's Pat O'Brien.
Ranking: 5 1/2 Chocolate-covered Pickles
6 (tie). Older Male (Main Track) - Top horses: Awesome Gem, Dakota Phone, Temple City, Richard's Kid
This division is lead by Awesome Gem, who won the Hollywood Gold Cup last out. He always comes with his run, and finally got his elusive Grade 1 win last out. Dakota Phone finally got his graded stakes win last out when he won the local prep for this race, the Grade 2 San Diego Handicap. Temple City finally got the graded stakes monkey of his back with a win the Grade 3 Cougar Handicap. Richard's Kid is still looking for his first win since February. The reason this group is ranked so low is two-fold. One, the top two horses in the division are currently not a part of it. Rail Trip, who was considered the division leader until his loss in Gold Cup, has been moved by his owners to the East Coast. Misremembered has only had one recent work since his win the Santa Anita Handicap, and is looking to make a return in a prep race for the Breeders' Cup Classic. Two, the top two who are currently running have a tendency to finish for minor placings more often than not. These reasons are why this division is ranked so low.
Ranking: 4 Chocolate-covered Pickles
6. (tie) Female Sprint - Top horse: Sweet August Moon
This already underwhelming group was further weakened by the injury to Free Flying Soul, which caused her to scratch from the Rancho Bernardo Handicap. Sweet August Moon has won the last two graded stakes for female sprinters out here. This group awaits the return of Mona De Momma, who parlayed the Las Flores Handicap into a win of the Grade 1 Humana Distaff at Churchill Downs. Until then, this division has a steady but unproven leader.
Ranking: 4 Chocolate-covered Pickles
8. Older Female (Turf) - Top horses: Lilly Fa Pootz, Gotta Have Her
This division was left without a leader when Tuscan Evening tragically passed away last week after a workout. This division is like the older females on the main track, in which there was a clear leader. Without her though, this division is in disarray. The current leader is former $16k claimer Lilly Fa Pootz, who finished 2nd to Midwest invader Wasted Tears in the Mabee Handicap. Gotta Have Her finished behind Lilly in the race. This division lakes a clear leader and is punished since only Gotta Have Her has shown her quality repeatedly in stakes.
Ranking: 3 Chocolate-covered Pickles
There is this blog's ranking of the divisions in Southern California. Some may disagree with this list. If so, this blog invites you to "give your ten cents" worth and put up your own list in the comments. This weekend's stakes action will have a definite impact on the rankings, so let's see how things unfold.
Friday, August 20, 2010
Coast-to-Coast Filly Face-Offs
This weekend, the top of the 3yo filly division squares off on the dirt and the turf in the two bastions of summer racing, Saratoga and Del Mar. The Grade 1 Alabama S. going a mile and a quarter on the main track at Saratoga, while the grass fillies will be going a mile and an eighth in the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks over the Jimmy Durante turf course. These races may provide some clarity to each division, as most of the division leaders are running in these races. Or maybe the divisions will be thrown into further disarray, if this blog's selections are correct. Let's start with the Alabama, then come out west for the Del Mar Oaks.
#1 Acting Happy Lezcano J 121 12-1
#2 Devil May Care Velazquez J 121 7-5
#3 Tizahit Prado E 121 20-1
#4 Blind Luck Rosario J 121 8-5
#5 Connie and Michael Maragh R 121 10-1
#6 Havre de Grace Rose J 121 4-1
The morning line favorite is #2 Devil May Care. This daughter of Malibu Moon has rebounded from a sub-par effort in the Kentucky Derby to easily defeat her two compact fields in the Grade 1 Mother Goose and Grade 1 CCA Oaks. (Her Oaks win below)
She has trained well in the interim, but the distance may be a question mark. Also, both times she ran third off the layoff, a poor performance ensued, with the caveat that both times had extraordinary circumstances attached. I'm not a big fan of not having any works beyond 4 furlongs for any race going a mile an an eighth or further. She is a contender, but not the pick.
The second morning line choice by the slimmest of margins is #4 Blind Luck. This daughter of Pollard's Vision comes off another one of her trademark cardiac victories, getting up by a nose over #6 Harve de Grace in the Grade 2 Delaware Oaks (below).
Blind Luck worked steadily in the interim, keeping her top form. But one has to worry about the distance with her as well, as her pedigree does not scream 1m & 1/4. Also, this her 4th cross country trip (Oaklawn, Churchill, Delaware) this year, since she returns back to her SoCal home base after each race. That amount of travel can wear down anything. Is today the day all that traveling gets to her? She is another contender, but not the pick.
Who then is this blog's selection? It is #1 Acting Happy. This daughter of Empire Maker was defeated by Devil May Care in her last start, but it was her first start in 2 months and she ran a little short. She comes in 2nd off the layoff, a favorite angle of the blog, with two maintenance works in the interim. She should have less of a problem with the distance based on her pedigree than the two favorites. Her last race before the CCA Oaks was her victory in the G1 Black-eyed Susan (below).
She will be tracking from just off the pace of (assumed) pace setter #5 Connie and Michael. She will have first jump on both of the favorites, make her move turning for home, and hopefully will hold on to pull off the huge upset.
This blog will be betting Acting Happy to win, and exacta boxes with Blind Luck and Devil May Care. No matter what, this should be a very interesting race.
Now we head clear across the country to "where the turf meets the surf" Del Mar for the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks. Here's the field:
#1 Berg Bahn (IRE) A O Solis 122
#2 Antares World F Alvarado 122
#3 Perfect Shirl C Sutherland 122
#4 Evening Jewel V Espinoza 122
#5 Distinctive (GB)B Blanc 122
#6 Harmonious M E Smith 122
#7 It Tiz (D R Flores 122
#8 Weekend Magic A Quinonez 122
#9 Crisp R Bejarano 122
#10 Warren's Jitterbug P A Valenzuela 122
The favorite probably will be #4 Evening Jewel. This daughter of Northern Afleet will attempt to win another Grade 1 race after her win in the Ashland at Keeneland over the Polytrack. She has great positional speed, and should be in a good spot. She has had three steady works over this course, where she won the local prep for this race, the Grade 2 San Clemente. However, at each of races at this distance, she has been life and death to hang on at any race past a mile, like today's race distance of a mile and an eighth. With some of the new faces she is facing for the first time today, this blog thinks she is very vulnerable.
The East Coast invader #3 Perfect Shirl is a stretch-running daughter of Perfect Soul who won the Grade 2 Lake George Handicap at Saratoga last time out. Her training at her home base of Woodbine has come along nicely since the win, and she brings in tow her jockey Chantal Sutherland, who was aboard for her first two victories of her career. This 1/2 sis to multiple graded stakes winners Shakespeare and Lady Shakespeare But this Del Mar course will have the shortest stretch of any course she has run on in her career. She is also a smallish filly who is shipping for the 2nd time in under a month. The fact that she will probably be an underlay in the betting is the final reason she is not the selection, but remains a must-use in the exotics.
The pick is the horse who is most likely to be the 2nd or 3rd favorite, depending on the money on Perfect Shirl, #6 Harmonious. This daughter of Dynaformer won the Grade 1 American Oaks last time out. (below)
She hasn't missed a beat in the morning since, with 5 works in the 49 day interim. Her trainer has little problem bringing horses back off this kind of layoff, and the distance will give her no problems. She gets back the services of jockey Mike Smith, who rode her in all starts prior to her last race. There seems to be enough speed to allow her to get a mid-pack tracking position early on, making her move at the top of the turn and hopefully winning going away.
The two foreign invaders #1 Berg Bahn and #5 Distinctive both present interesting prospects, but my limited knowledge of European racing makes it almost impossible to comment on their chances, other than to note that Alex Solis comes in from Saratoga to ride the #1.
Saturday shapes up to be a great day of racing for the fillies, no matter the surface or the coast. Will we have some clarity to the divisional rankings? Or will we have calamity instead? Either way, it will be fun. Good luck everybody!
#1 Acting Happy Lezcano J 121 12-1
#2 Devil May Care Velazquez J 121 7-5
#3 Tizahit Prado E 121 20-1
#4 Blind Luck Rosario J 121 8-5
#5 Connie and Michael Maragh R 121 10-1
#6 Havre de Grace Rose J 121 4-1
The morning line favorite is #2 Devil May Care. This daughter of Malibu Moon has rebounded from a sub-par effort in the Kentucky Derby to easily defeat her two compact fields in the Grade 1 Mother Goose and Grade 1 CCA Oaks. (Her Oaks win below)
She has trained well in the interim, but the distance may be a question mark. Also, both times she ran third off the layoff, a poor performance ensued, with the caveat that both times had extraordinary circumstances attached. I'm not a big fan of not having any works beyond 4 furlongs for any race going a mile an an eighth or further. She is a contender, but not the pick.
The second morning line choice by the slimmest of margins is #4 Blind Luck. This daughter of Pollard's Vision comes off another one of her trademark cardiac victories, getting up by a nose over #6 Harve de Grace in the Grade 2 Delaware Oaks (below).
Blind Luck worked steadily in the interim, keeping her top form. But one has to worry about the distance with her as well, as her pedigree does not scream 1m & 1/4. Also, this her 4th cross country trip (Oaklawn, Churchill, Delaware) this year, since she returns back to her SoCal home base after each race. That amount of travel can wear down anything. Is today the day all that traveling gets to her? She is another contender, but not the pick.
Who then is this blog's selection? It is #1 Acting Happy. This daughter of Empire Maker was defeated by Devil May Care in her last start, but it was her first start in 2 months and she ran a little short. She comes in 2nd off the layoff, a favorite angle of the blog, with two maintenance works in the interim. She should have less of a problem with the distance based on her pedigree than the two favorites. Her last race before the CCA Oaks was her victory in the G1 Black-eyed Susan (below).
She will be tracking from just off the pace of (assumed) pace setter #5 Connie and Michael. She will have first jump on both of the favorites, make her move turning for home, and hopefully will hold on to pull off the huge upset.
This blog will be betting Acting Happy to win, and exacta boxes with Blind Luck and Devil May Care. No matter what, this should be a very interesting race.
Now we head clear across the country to "where the turf meets the surf" Del Mar for the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks. Here's the field:
#1 Berg Bahn (IRE) A O Solis 122
#2 Antares World F Alvarado 122
#3 Perfect Shirl C Sutherland 122
#4 Evening Jewel V Espinoza 122
#5 Distinctive (GB)B Blanc 122
#6 Harmonious M E Smith 122
#7 It Tiz (D R Flores 122
#8 Weekend Magic A Quinonez 122
#9 Crisp R Bejarano 122
#10 Warren's Jitterbug P A Valenzuela 122
The favorite probably will be #4 Evening Jewel. This daughter of Northern Afleet will attempt to win another Grade 1 race after her win in the Ashland at Keeneland over the Polytrack. She has great positional speed, and should be in a good spot. She has had three steady works over this course, where she won the local prep for this race, the Grade 2 San Clemente. However, at each of races at this distance, she has been life and death to hang on at any race past a mile, like today's race distance of a mile and an eighth. With some of the new faces she is facing for the first time today, this blog thinks she is very vulnerable.
The East Coast invader #3 Perfect Shirl is a stretch-running daughter of Perfect Soul who won the Grade 2 Lake George Handicap at Saratoga last time out. Her training at her home base of Woodbine has come along nicely since the win, and she brings in tow her jockey Chantal Sutherland, who was aboard for her first two victories of her career. This 1/2 sis to multiple graded stakes winners Shakespeare and Lady Shakespeare But this Del Mar course will have the shortest stretch of any course she has run on in her career. She is also a smallish filly who is shipping for the 2nd time in under a month. The fact that she will probably be an underlay in the betting is the final reason she is not the selection, but remains a must-use in the exotics.
The pick is the horse who is most likely to be the 2nd or 3rd favorite, depending on the money on Perfect Shirl, #6 Harmonious. This daughter of Dynaformer won the Grade 1 American Oaks last time out. (below)
She hasn't missed a beat in the morning since, with 5 works in the 49 day interim. Her trainer has little problem bringing horses back off this kind of layoff, and the distance will give her no problems. She gets back the services of jockey Mike Smith, who rode her in all starts prior to her last race. There seems to be enough speed to allow her to get a mid-pack tracking position early on, making her move at the top of the turn and hopefully winning going away.
The two foreign invaders #1 Berg Bahn and #5 Distinctive both present interesting prospects, but my limited knowledge of European racing makes it almost impossible to comment on their chances, other than to note that Alex Solis comes in from Saratoga to ride the #1.
Saturday shapes up to be a great day of racing for the fillies, no matter the surface or the coast. Will we have some clarity to the divisional rankings? Or will we have calamity instead? Either way, it will be fun. Good luck everybody!
Sunday, August 15, 2010
John C. Mabee Handicap - No Use Crying Over This One
The 53rd running of the Grade 2 John C. Mabee Handicap brings together a field of eight fillies and mares going a mile and an eighth on the Jimmy Durante Turf course. Previous winners of this race are the wonderful two-time champion turf female Flawlessly, the champion older filly and mare Escena and "the little filly that could" Megahertz. Who will join this list of champions? Here is the field:
#1 Wasted Tears R Maragh 121 5/2
#2 Lilly Fa Pootz J Rosario 119 6/1
#3 Spring Style (IRE) P A Valenzuela 119 15/1
#4 Gotta Have Her M E Smith 121 3/1
#5 Turning Top (IRE) B Blanc 119 5/1
#6 Princess Haya R Bejarano 121 10/1
#7 Gozzip Girl J R Leparoux 121 7/2
#8 Oui Say Oui (IRE) V Espinoza 119 20/1
The favorite, the selection and a blog favorite is #1 Wasted Tears. This daughter of Najran is on a 6 race winning streak, and a 9 race turf winning streak. This blog fell in love with her during her win in the Grade 3 Honey Fox Handicap on the Fountain of Youth undercard at Gulfstream Park. She cleared over from the post #13 that day to win. She is a true front-runner who goes to the front and asks you to come and catch her. She has had a series of steady works since her win in the Grade 3 Ouija Board at Lone Star Park on Memorial Day. Rajiv Maragh ships in from Saratoga for the mount. The distance is the major question for her, as she has never gone this far. She also has a to fight the speed-averse profile on this turf course. Hopefully the front-end win by Sidney's Candy yesterday portends good things for 'Tears'. She does appear to have an advantage from a pace perspective, as she is the only true front-runner. This should lead to a gate-to-wire victory
The main threat is #2 Lilly Fa Pootz. She is a hot horse, having been in the exacta 8 out of her last 9 and riding a modest two-win winning streak. She won the ungraded Osunitas Stakes over this turf course last time out. She has steadily climbed the ranks from the $16k claiming ranks to this level. She has blossomed under the care of trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, who could use someone like her to at least partially replace the gaping hole in his barn that Tuscan's Evening sudden death last week during a workout left. Lilly has three steady maintenance works during the interim. She is a rallier, the preferred style on this course, but gets the acid test today.
The blog does not think that #4 Gotta Have Her will be much of a threat, as it looks like she is going farther than her optimum distance. For a crazy longshot to spice up the exotics, the #8 Oui Say Oui would the one we shall use. She is probably not fast enough to win, but she will be probably sitting right behind Wasted Tears during the opening quarters of the race. She could just draft behind her and get dragged along to good placing behind the winner. I think the added distance will help her, and at 20/1 on the morning line, she is worth inclusion in your horizontal plays.
This blog will play Wasted Tears on top of the Lilly Fa Pootz and Oui Say Oui in the exacta, and throw in #7 Gozzip Girl in the 3rd spot.
Good luck everybody!
#1 Wasted Tears R Maragh 121 5/2
#2 Lilly Fa Pootz J Rosario 119 6/1
#3 Spring Style (IRE) P A Valenzuela 119 15/1
#4 Gotta Have Her M E Smith 121 3/1
#5 Turning Top (IRE) B Blanc 119 5/1
#6 Princess Haya R Bejarano 121 10/1
#7 Gozzip Girl J R Leparoux 121 7/2
#8 Oui Say Oui (IRE) V Espinoza 119 20/1
The favorite, the selection and a blog favorite is #1 Wasted Tears. This daughter of Najran is on a 6 race winning streak, and a 9 race turf winning streak. This blog fell in love with her during her win in the Grade 3 Honey Fox Handicap on the Fountain of Youth undercard at Gulfstream Park. She cleared over from the post #13 that day to win. She is a true front-runner who goes to the front and asks you to come and catch her. She has had a series of steady works since her win in the Grade 3 Ouija Board at Lone Star Park on Memorial Day. Rajiv Maragh ships in from Saratoga for the mount. The distance is the major question for her, as she has never gone this far. She also has a to fight the speed-averse profile on this turf course. Hopefully the front-end win by Sidney's Candy yesterday portends good things for 'Tears'. She does appear to have an advantage from a pace perspective, as she is the only true front-runner. This should lead to a gate-to-wire victory
The main threat is #2 Lilly Fa Pootz. She is a hot horse, having been in the exacta 8 out of her last 9 and riding a modest two-win winning streak. She won the ungraded Osunitas Stakes over this turf course last time out. She has steadily climbed the ranks from the $16k claiming ranks to this level. She has blossomed under the care of trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, who could use someone like her to at least partially replace the gaping hole in his barn that Tuscan's Evening sudden death last week during a workout left. Lilly has three steady maintenance works during the interim. She is a rallier, the preferred style on this course, but gets the acid test today.
The blog does not think that #4 Gotta Have Her will be much of a threat, as it looks like she is going farther than her optimum distance. For a crazy longshot to spice up the exotics, the #8 Oui Say Oui would the one we shall use. She is probably not fast enough to win, but she will be probably sitting right behind Wasted Tears during the opening quarters of the race. She could just draft behind her and get dragged along to good placing behind the winner. I think the added distance will help her, and at 20/1 on the morning line, she is worth inclusion in your horizontal plays.
This blog will play Wasted Tears on top of the Lilly Fa Pootz and Oui Say Oui in the exacta, and throw in #7 Gozzip Girl in the 3rd spot.
Good luck everybody!
Saturday, August 14, 2010
The La Jolla Handicap: The New Kid in Town
Another great weekend of racing is upon us at Del Mar. This weekend's features are a couple of interesting stakes going a route of ground over the Jimmy Durante turf course. On Saturday, 3 year olds go a mile and a sixteenth in the Grade 2 La Jolla Handicap. On Sunday, older fillies and mares go a mile and an eighth in Grade 2 John C Mabee Handicap. Let's start with the boys in the La Jolla. The next post will be on the Mabee.
Grade 2 La Jolla Handicap - 1m & 1/16th (turf)
#1 Leroy's Dynameaux R Bejarano 118 9/2
#2 Sidney's Candy J Rosario 121 7/5
#3 Macias M Garcia 118 8/1
#4 Summer Movie V Espinoza 116 12/1
#5 Kid Edward (IRE) D R Flores 115 9/2
#6 Face and an Ace B Blanc 115 30/1
#7 Golden Itiz P A Valenzuela 118 4/1
#8 Alphie's Bet M E Smith 119 12/1
The morning line favorite is #3 Sidney's Candy. This son of Candy Ride was last seen being narrowly defeated in the Grade 2 Swaps Stakes over the Cushion Track at Hollywood Park. Today is his first start over the turf. His sire was the undefeated multiple graded stakes winning Candy Ride, who won both on the main track and the turf. He is a speed horse, and that has been a detriment on this course, as less than 15% of those who were on or near the lead have won. He will also have company up front by # 3 Macias and maybe #6 Face and an Ace. Macias is a speedball who will go as far and as fast as he can go, with no chance of rating. Can Sidney clear Macias? Can he rate effectively? This blog says "No" on both parts.
The pick is #5 Kid Edward (IRE). This son of globe-trotting multiple Group 1 winner Singspiel is lightly raced with only three starts. Last out, he cleared his 1st allowance condition with a stylish win over this course opening week. He has a couple of steady maintenance works in the interim and is one of only two who has won at the distance on the grass. When he broke his maiden two starts back at the beginning of the Santa Anita meet, this blog thought he had a chance to be the best three year old on the grass out here in Southern California. Nothing he did in his last race has changed the opinion of him.
The reason that this blog was so high on Kid Edward was that the day he broke his maiden, his race was a split of the same condition. Another race with the same conditions was run as the 8th race on the same card. 7 horses came out of the two races combined to face off at the same level a month later. Only one of the horses who came from the 2nd split of the race beat a horse from the 1st split. Furthermore, the only horse in the field who did not come out of one of those races ran 2nd. Going forward throughout the meet, this weakness continued to show in the division with many horses coming over from the main track to beat the top grass horses. Every stake run at a mile or further on the grass for 3 yo in Southern California this year has been won by a "new shooter". Horses such as Line of David, Make Music For Me, Leroy's Dynameaux and Alphie's Bet would routinely win. Then, other horses who had not run against these fields continued the trend, even at the allowance level. #4 Summer Movie came off the layoff to easily beat the best n1x horses on the grounds. This group of 3yo has parity and is ripe for the taking.
This blog will be betting Kid Edward to win, and then playing some exotics with Sidney's Candy, Summer Movie and Leroy's Dynameaux underneath. No matter what, this is shaping up to be a competitive race. Good luck everybody.
Grade 2 La Jolla Handicap - 1m & 1/16th (turf)
#1 Leroy's Dynameaux R Bejarano 118 9/2
#2 Sidney's Candy J Rosario 121 7/5
#3 Macias M Garcia 118 8/1
#4 Summer Movie V Espinoza 116 12/1
#5 Kid Edward (IRE) D R Flores 115 9/2
#6 Face and an Ace B Blanc 115 30/1
#7 Golden Itiz P A Valenzuela 118 4/1
#8 Alphie's Bet M E Smith 119 12/1
The morning line favorite is #3 Sidney's Candy. This son of Candy Ride was last seen being narrowly defeated in the Grade 2 Swaps Stakes over the Cushion Track at Hollywood Park. Today is his first start over the turf. His sire was the undefeated multiple graded stakes winning Candy Ride, who won both on the main track and the turf. He is a speed horse, and that has been a detriment on this course, as less than 15% of those who were on or near the lead have won. He will also have company up front by # 3 Macias and maybe #6 Face and an Ace. Macias is a speedball who will go as far and as fast as he can go, with no chance of rating. Can Sidney clear Macias? Can he rate effectively? This blog says "No" on both parts.
The pick is #5 Kid Edward (IRE). This son of globe-trotting multiple Group 1 winner Singspiel is lightly raced with only three starts. Last out, he cleared his 1st allowance condition with a stylish win over this course opening week. He has a couple of steady maintenance works in the interim and is one of only two who has won at the distance on the grass. When he broke his maiden two starts back at the beginning of the Santa Anita meet, this blog thought he had a chance to be the best three year old on the grass out here in Southern California. Nothing he did in his last race has changed the opinion of him.
The reason that this blog was so high on Kid Edward was that the day he broke his maiden, his race was a split of the same condition. Another race with the same conditions was run as the 8th race on the same card. 7 horses came out of the two races combined to face off at the same level a month later. Only one of the horses who came from the 2nd split of the race beat a horse from the 1st split. Furthermore, the only horse in the field who did not come out of one of those races ran 2nd. Going forward throughout the meet, this weakness continued to show in the division with many horses coming over from the main track to beat the top grass horses. Every stake run at a mile or further on the grass for 3 yo in Southern California this year has been won by a "new shooter". Horses such as Line of David, Make Music For Me, Leroy's Dynameaux and Alphie's Bet would routinely win. Then, other horses who had not run against these fields continued the trend, even at the allowance level. #4 Summer Movie came off the layoff to easily beat the best n1x horses on the grounds. This group of 3yo has parity and is ripe for the taking.
This blog will be betting Kid Edward to win, and then playing some exotics with Sidney's Candy, Summer Movie and Leroy's Dynameaux underneath. No matter what, this is shaping up to be a competitive race. Good luck everybody.
Saturday, July 31, 2010
The Bing Crosby Handicap - "Blast" Off!
This Sunday is the Grade 1 Bing Crosby Handicap going 6 furlongs at Del Mar over the Polytrack. The 65th running of this race has brought together a field of 7. The race is named after one of the co-founders of Del Mar, the venerable entertainer Bing Crosby. One of these horses will join such past winners as Lit de Justice, Thirty Slews and Kona Gold, each of which who went on to win the Breeders' Cup Sprint later that year. Last year's winner Zensational went off favored in the 2009 Breeders' Cup Sprint at Santa Anita.
Here is the field:
1 E Z's Gentleman Pedroza M 123 2-1
2 Sky Cape Talamo J 119 20-1
3 Scenic Blast (AUS) Smith M Shirreffs John 121 8-1
4 El Brujo Rosario J 119 8-1
5 Cost of Freedom Bejarano R 119 7-5
6 My Summer Slew Quinonez A 119 10-1
7 Smiling Tiger Espinoza V 115 5-1
The selection is #3 Scenic Blast (AUS). This Australian-born gelded son of the Sadler Well's sire Scenic has race across the globe in his native Australia, Japan, Hong Kong and the UK. He won grade 1 races in the UK and down under, but developed a bleeding problem that led to his importation to the states so he could run on the medication Lasix. he is now under the care of trainer John Shirreffs. Last time out in his first start in the states, he finished a credible 4th behind the #6 in the Robert Kerlan Memorial Handicap @ Hollywood Park going 6 furlongs over the turf. He was ridden then, as he will be today, by jockey Mike Smith. Today will mark his 1st start over the Poly, but this blog thinks he will take to it just fine.
"Blast" was 1st time Lasix in his last start, and that is part of the reason he is the selection. This blog is a firm believer that when it comes to geldings, 2nd-time Lasix, as the #3 is today, is the optimum time to bet the horse. He is also the only true closer in a filled with speed and just off the pace types. Furthermore, Blast is 2nd off the layoff, which this blog is very fond of using that angle. He is a ridiculous 8-1 morning line and is fully expected by post time to be a more realistic 4-1 or so.
#5 Cost of Freedom and #1 E Z Gentlemen are the only other Grade 1 winners in the field. Cost of Freedom won the Grade 3 L.A. Handicap last time out at 6f, beating both the #1 and the #6. He is pure speed, but did once rate just off wickedly fast fractions. He is 3 for 5 at Del Mar and has been working great in the interim for trainer John Sadler. (Below is his win in the L.A. Handicap)
E Z Gentelman came off of that 3/4 length defeat in the L.A. Handicap to win Grade 1 Triple Bend last time out going 7 furlongs. He drafted just to the inside of speedster M One Rifle, came up the rail and spurted away to win 3 and 1/4 lengths. He has worked a nice 5f in 59 & 3 over the track on Monday and looks to keep his string of good efforts going. (Below is his win in the Triple Bend Handicap)
#7 Smiling Tiger is the lone three year-old in the field, is trying to join previous 3 year old winners as King's Blade and Zensational. In his last race, he went gate to wire in the Grade 3 Laz Barrera going 7 furlongs versus 3 year olds @ Hollywood Park. He beat Concord Point, who is his next start broke the track record in winning the Grade 3 Iowa Derby. Tiger has come back to work swiftly, throwing several bullet workouts in preparation for the race. He is a need the lead type who has not showed the ability to pass, and he steps up to face older for the first time.
The others are: #6 My Summer Slew, who won the Kerlan defeating Scenic Blast last time out, but was defeated by both E Z Gentleman and Cost of Freedom in the L.A. Handicap; #4 El Brujo, who makes his first start in 2 months for new trainer Bob Baffert after being campaigned in the Midwest and Canada. All but one of his lifetime starts have been over the Polytrack, including both of his Grade 3 wins at Turfway and Keeneland, respectively; and #2 Sky Cape, who makes his first start in over a year, and appears to be outclassed, even if he brought his top effort.
There is the field for the Bing Crosby. Hopefully you will get the chance to "take a plane, take a train, take a car to Del Mar" to see the race live. Wherever you end up seeing this race, it should be a good, fast sprint that will hopefully will end with a "Blast"!
Here is the field:
1 E Z's Gentleman Pedroza M 123 2-1
2 Sky Cape Talamo J 119 20-1
3 Scenic Blast (AUS) Smith M Shirreffs John 121 8-1
4 El Brujo Rosario J 119 8-1
5 Cost of Freedom Bejarano R 119 7-5
6 My Summer Slew Quinonez A 119 10-1
7 Smiling Tiger Espinoza V 115 5-1
The selection is #3 Scenic Blast (AUS). This Australian-born gelded son of the Sadler Well's sire Scenic has race across the globe in his native Australia, Japan, Hong Kong and the UK. He won grade 1 races in the UK and down under, but developed a bleeding problem that led to his importation to the states so he could run on the medication Lasix. he is now under the care of trainer John Shirreffs. Last time out in his first start in the states, he finished a credible 4th behind the #6 in the Robert Kerlan Memorial Handicap @ Hollywood Park going 6 furlongs over the turf. He was ridden then, as he will be today, by jockey Mike Smith. Today will mark his 1st start over the Poly, but this blog thinks he will take to it just fine.
"Blast" was 1st time Lasix in his last start, and that is part of the reason he is the selection. This blog is a firm believer that when it comes to geldings, 2nd-time Lasix, as the #3 is today, is the optimum time to bet the horse. He is also the only true closer in a filled with speed and just off the pace types. Furthermore, Blast is 2nd off the layoff, which this blog is very fond of using that angle. He is a ridiculous 8-1 morning line and is fully expected by post time to be a more realistic 4-1 or so.
#5 Cost of Freedom and #1 E Z Gentlemen are the only other Grade 1 winners in the field. Cost of Freedom won the Grade 3 L.A. Handicap last time out at 6f, beating both the #1 and the #6. He is pure speed, but did once rate just off wickedly fast fractions. He is 3 for 5 at Del Mar and has been working great in the interim for trainer John Sadler. (Below is his win in the L.A. Handicap)
E Z Gentelman came off of that 3/4 length defeat in the L.A. Handicap to win Grade 1 Triple Bend last time out going 7 furlongs. He drafted just to the inside of speedster M One Rifle, came up the rail and spurted away to win 3 and 1/4 lengths. He has worked a nice 5f in 59 & 3 over the track on Monday and looks to keep his string of good efforts going. (Below is his win in the Triple Bend Handicap)
#7 Smiling Tiger is the lone three year-old in the field, is trying to join previous 3 year old winners as King's Blade and Zensational. In his last race, he went gate to wire in the Grade 3 Laz Barrera going 7 furlongs versus 3 year olds @ Hollywood Park. He beat Concord Point, who is his next start broke the track record in winning the Grade 3 Iowa Derby. Tiger has come back to work swiftly, throwing several bullet workouts in preparation for the race. He is a need the lead type who has not showed the ability to pass, and he steps up to face older for the first time.
The others are: #6 My Summer Slew, who won the Kerlan defeating Scenic Blast last time out, but was defeated by both E Z Gentleman and Cost of Freedom in the L.A. Handicap; #4 El Brujo, who makes his first start in 2 months for new trainer Bob Baffert after being campaigned in the Midwest and Canada. All but one of his lifetime starts have been over the Polytrack, including both of his Grade 3 wins at Turfway and Keeneland, respectively; and #2 Sky Cape, who makes his first start in over a year, and appears to be outclassed, even if he brought his top effort.
There is the field for the Bing Crosby. Hopefully you will get the chance to "take a plane, take a train, take a car to Del Mar" to see the race live. Wherever you end up seeing this race, it should be a good, fast sprint that will hopefully will end with a "Blast"!
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