As promised yesterday, this post is about my thoughts about the events that took place during the time i could not post. I will be starting from the day of the Travers through the Hopeful at Saratoga, then switch to the west coast for thoughts on the events from the Pacific Classic to the Del Mar Futurity.
- The stakes on the Travers undercard were underwhelming. All 3 were won by gate-to-wire winners over a speed favoring track. I'm not sure what to make of the winners of the Victory Ride and the Ballerina, but Discreetly Mine winning the King's Bishop was a bit of a disappointment. Not only did my pick D'funnybone did nothing, but DM's win inspired nothing. I question whether he will have an impact come the first Saturday in November at Churchill in either the Sprint or the Dirt Mile.
- The Travers itself was a great race to watch as Afleet Express just held off Fly Down at the wire by the slimmest of noses. Both the winner and the runner-up showed they were very game. Super Saver further cemented himself as another in the string of Derby winning one-hit wonders. Not sure how this group of three year-olds will fair against older, as most of the races have been very middling.
- As this blog thought, Rachel Alexandra did not win the Personal Ensign. However, much to the blog's dismay, Life At Ten was not the one to defeat her. Rather, it was longshot outsider Persistently. Wearing the same colors as the horse who's name graces the stake, she ground her way to victory. It appears that Rachel just cannot run a mile and quarter effectively, especially with what she has showed this year. She should be pointed to the Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic, where she would be the favorite and have a much better chance of winning. But she will still have to deal with Life at Ten, who's run was very disappointing. Maybe there is some truth to the theory that Malibu Moon's at Saratoga struggle at a mile and a quarter. Let us see what Pletcher has in store for her. This blog still has faith in Life at Ten that she will prevail on November 5th.
- It was a bad time for the Asmussen barn, as not only did Rachel lose the Personal Ensign, but he lost both Kantharos and Majesticperfection to injury. Kantharos, a promising two-year-old who facilely won the Grade 2 Saratoga Special in last race, suffered a career-ending injury in training for the Grade 1 Hopeful. Majesticperfection suffered a career-ending injury on Sunday while continuing preparations for the Grade 1 Vosburgh S. at Belmont. Both leave gaping holes in their respectful divisions, and will be sorely missed. This blog thought Majesticperfection was a very strong contender for the BC Sprint. His absence leaves this blog scrambling for a selection in that race. Maybe Atta Boy Roy, the winner of the CD Sprint on Derby Day.
- With Kantharos out, heavy favorite Boys of Toscanova disposed of three overclassed rivals with ease in the Hopeful. While he won with ease, one has to question how far he will go, being a son of Officer, who failed in numerous attempts at two-turns. We shall see, but as of now, he is the de facto leader of the division.
Now off to the West Coast!
- The Pacific Classic anchored a three stake day at Del Mar. In the Del Mar Mile, Lava Man's 1/2 bro Enriched finally broke through in a stake with his gutty win. In the Pat O'Brien, Baffert's recent acquistion El Brujo made his Del Mar debut a winning one by blitzing his rivals. This charge will hopefully be pointed to the BC Dirt Mile, as he appears to like an elongated one-turn race. In the Pacific Classic, Richard's Kid defended his title under a patented Mike Smith ride from the back of the pack. He became only the third horse to defend his title, along with Tinner's Way and Skimming. His win continues the pass-the-buck nature of the older male division, where the group beats up on one another. Furthermore, while Richard's Kid has excelled over the synthetic, one wonders what the switch to dirt will bring. This blog thinks that it will not be good.
- Tell A Kelly capitalize on a hot pace set by favorite Wickedly Perfect in the Grade 1 Darley Del Mar Debutante to score the victory. Wickedly Perfect gamely held on for second. Both look to have a bright future going forward, and may have a rematch in Grade 1 Oak Leaf at Oak Tree at Hollywood Park. Both should have no problem with the added distance. Maybe this will be the beginning of another rivalry, a la Blind Luck and Evening Jewel. In the Del Mar Futurity, J P’s Gusto continue his reign over the the Southern California two year-olds with a sparkling victory. He blew apart the field after setting a solid pace, drawing off to win by 4 3/4 lengths. Jaycito closed out of the clouds to get the place spot. This blog feels that Jaycito is the one to watch going forward, as J P may have hit his limit when it comes to distance. J P’s pedigree does not really lend himself to go more than a mile.
- The last topic that shall receive comment is the situation that occurred in the Del Mar Derby. Twirling Candy won in a swift time, but not without controversy. Coming into the backstretch, he shied away from something in the infield and bolted outward several paths, carrying Summer Movie with him. Summer Movie eventually finished a well-beaten last. Yet no disqualification occurred. This blog went back-and-forth over whether Twirling Candy should have been disqualified. Both sides of the argument had merit. But this blog felt that a disqualification should have taken place. The interference inflicted upon Summer Movie not only cost him several lengths, but also how the horse would run. The jockey on Summer Movie had to ask his horse for significantly more energy to regain his previous position. The fact that the horse finished last should not obscure the fact the amount of ground lost due to the interference, plus the forced expenditure of energy to regain the position lost, is basis enough to warrant the disqualification.
Leaving the much-talked about decision aside, the field Twirling Candy beat was weak. The southern California 3 year-old turf division is one of the worst out here. It is the only division which has not had a representative hit the board in a stake outside of California. The weakness of the division means that while his win was nice, we did not learn much about him. With plans for him to head back to the main track for the Goodwood Stakes, then the dirt in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, it is fair to question how well he will fair against older. Even with the parity-filled but suspect group of older horses in SoCal, Twirling Candy would appear to be up against it once he faces older.
Why do the connections chose to move TC to the main track and point to the Breeders’ Cup Classic with him instead of his stablemate Sidney’s Candy is something to ponder. Is it that they believe that TC is that good? Or is it an indictment on whether SC cannot get the mile and a quarter? This blog feels that is more the latter. Twirling Candy’s pedigree will not have a problem with the distance, unlike SC, who showed in the Derby that he may have an issue with it..The pedigree for TC also leans considerably more to grass. This blog feels that he will not move up on the switch to dirt, something he would need to do in order to compete with the likes of Blame, Zenyatta or Quality Road.
So there is my “ten cents” on the past two weeks. As always, please comment below if you agree or disagree with anything i have said. Now that review of the past is complete, what was learned that can be used in the future? We shall see.
Showing posts with label Saratoga. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Saratoga. Show all posts
Thursday, September 9, 2010
Thursday, August 26, 2010
Travers Day Million Dollar Guaranteed Pick 4 Analysis
On Saturday, Saratoga Race Course will run a stakes filled card, headed by the Grade 1 Travers Stakes. There are 5 graded stakes on the card, all in the pick 6. There is a guaranteed cool million in the all-stakes pick 4, comprising of the Grade 3 Victory Ride, the Grade 1 Ballerina, Grade 1 King's Bishop and main event, the Grade 1 Travers Stakes. 3 sprints and a race at the classic distance make up the sequence. Here is this blog's rundown of the races in the sequence:
Race 9: Grade 3 Victory Ride S. - 6 furlongs
#1 Kid Kate Prado E 120
#2 My Jen Leparoux J 120
#3 Rapport Garcia M 116
#4 Sister Dawn Maragh R 116
#5 Worstcasescenario Garcia Alan 120
#6 Simply Spiteful Lezcano J 118
#7 Beyondallboundarys Borel C 120
#8 Touching Beauty Castellano J 123
#9 Katy Now Velazquez J R 118
This is a wide open race with a lukewarm 7/2 morning line favorite in #3 Rapport. She was last seen setting a blistering pace but fading in the stretch in the Grade 3 Azalea last out at Calder. She came back with several swift works in the interim. Before that, she had two stylish front-running wins at Hollywood. She is reunited with Martin Garcia. the jockey of her two wins. He will try to ration out her speed in an attempt to go gate-to-wire.
The selection is #8 Touching Beauty. This daughter of Tapit was last seen winning the Grade 3 Comely Stakes at Aqueduct last April. She has made several good work off the layoff, and her trainer has good stats off the layoff. The only time she stepped foot on this track in the afternoon, she won her debut going 5 1/2 furlongs. She should get a good stalking trip and run down the speed. Others to consider are #9 Katy Now, whose best race is arguably at this distance two back; #4 Sister Dawn, who goes first time dirt for SoCal trainer John Sadler; and #7 Beyondallboundarys, who rides a 2 race win streak and is 3-for-3 at 6 furlongs.
Race 10: Grade 1 Ballerina S. - 7 furlongs
#1 Rightly So Velasquez C 117
#2 Warbling Castellano J 119
#3 Jessica Is Back Trujillo E 122
#4 Informed Decision Leparoux J 119
#5 Qualia Maragh R 115
#6 Pretty Prolific Prado E 117
#7 Devil by Design Desormeaux K 115
#8 First Passage Bridgmohan J 117
This race is a two horse race for this blog, with the selection being #2 Warbling. This daughter of Unbridled's Song goes 3rd off the layoff for trainer Eddie Kenneally. She has tactical speed, but can rally as well. The distance will be no problem and she should float up from her 4/1 morning line. The other horse is the favorite #4 Informed Decision. She cuts back after a winning a rare race around two turns and looks to be in fine form third off the layoff. The distance is not a problem.
Race 11: Grade 1 King's Bishop S. - 7 furlongs
#1 Latigo Shore Dominguez R A 117 L
#2 Hurricane Ike Borel C H 119 L
#3 D' Funnybone Prado E S 123 L
#4 Discreetly Mine Velazquez J R 123 L
#5 Bulldogger Garcia M 117 L
#6 Bank Merger Garcia Alan 117 L
#7 In Jack's Memory Mena M 117 L
This blog will take a chance in the pick 4 by singling #3 D'Funnybone. He comes in off a brief freshening and has run well off the layoff. He is undefeated at the Spa and at the distance (4-4). He will have to hold off #4 Discreetly Mine, who is coming off a smashing win in the Grade 2 Amsterdam here at Saratoga. Both will sit off #5 Bulldogger, who has blistering speed but will get the class test in this race.
Race 12: Grade 1 Travers S. - 1m & 1/4
#1 Miner's Reserve Cohen D 126
#2 Trappe Shot Garcia Alan 126
#3 Admiral Alex Desormeaux K 126
#4 First Dude Dominguez R 126
#5 A Little Warm Velazquez J 126
#6 Ice Box Leparoux J 126
#7 Afleet Express Castellano J 126
#8 Fly Down Lezcano J 126
#9 Friend Or Foe Maragh R 126
#10 Afleet Again Velasquez C 126
#11 Super Saver Borel C 126
The main event is a real brainteaser, as only Super Saver has won at the distance before. Only two come in off a win. Most are untested at the distance. The division leader, Lookin at Lucky, did not make the trip from southern California due to spiking a fever on the return trip from his win in the Haskell. The lukewarm favorite is #5 A Little Warm. This son of Stormin Fever won the local prep, the Grade 2 Jim Dandy last time out. He stalked the #1 Miner's Reserve around the track and took over in the stretch. He has two good maintenance works in the interim. There are questions over whether he can last the mile and a quarter, especially with the expected quick splits. he will be attending.
The selection is #7 Afleet Express. This son of Afleet Alex, sire of three in the field, finished a lackluster 3rd in the Jim Dandy. This blog feels that the race was an aberration caused by the odd spacing between his last two races and the fact that the horses who ran 1-2 were 2-1 the whole way around. There have been two steady works in the interim, and he deserves another chance. At 6-1 on the morning line, he should offer some value, but by no means is a single.
Others to consider are #8 Fly Down, who was the favorite in the Jim Dandy but failed to produce his best and #11 Super Saver, who won the Derby but was well beaten his last two starts. This blog is taking a stand against #2 Trappe Shot, who may end up the favorite off of his 2nd in the Haskell. This blog doesn't feel that he is at his optimum at this distance, and his depressed price creates zero value in the sequence
To recap, the ticket is:
Victory Ride: Touching Beauty, Beyondallboundarys, Rapport, Sister Dawn, Katy Now
Ballerina: Warbling, Informed Decision
King's Bishop: D'funnybone
Travers: Afleet Express, Fly Down, A Little Warm, Super Saver
A $40 ticket in total.
This sequence lacks any heavy favorites, and could easily pay over a thousand dollars. This blog wishes all good luck and great betting!
Race 9: Grade 3 Victory Ride S. - 6 furlongs
#1 Kid Kate Prado E 120
#2 My Jen Leparoux J 120
#3 Rapport Garcia M 116
#4 Sister Dawn Maragh R 116
#5 Worstcasescenario Garcia Alan 120
#6 Simply Spiteful Lezcano J 118
#7 Beyondallboundarys Borel C 120
#8 Touching Beauty Castellano J 123
#9 Katy Now Velazquez J R 118
This is a wide open race with a lukewarm 7/2 morning line favorite in #3 Rapport. She was last seen setting a blistering pace but fading in the stretch in the Grade 3 Azalea last out at Calder. She came back with several swift works in the interim. Before that, she had two stylish front-running wins at Hollywood. She is reunited with Martin Garcia. the jockey of her two wins. He will try to ration out her speed in an attempt to go gate-to-wire.
The selection is #8 Touching Beauty. This daughter of Tapit was last seen winning the Grade 3 Comely Stakes at Aqueduct last April. She has made several good work off the layoff, and her trainer has good stats off the layoff. The only time she stepped foot on this track in the afternoon, she won her debut going 5 1/2 furlongs. She should get a good stalking trip and run down the speed. Others to consider are #9 Katy Now, whose best race is arguably at this distance two back; #4 Sister Dawn, who goes first time dirt for SoCal trainer John Sadler; and #7 Beyondallboundarys, who rides a 2 race win streak and is 3-for-3 at 6 furlongs.
Race 10: Grade 1 Ballerina S. - 7 furlongs
#1 Rightly So Velasquez C 117
#2 Warbling Castellano J 119
#3 Jessica Is Back Trujillo E 122
#4 Informed Decision Leparoux J 119
#5 Qualia Maragh R 115
#6 Pretty Prolific Prado E 117
#7 Devil by Design Desormeaux K 115
#8 First Passage Bridgmohan J 117
This race is a two horse race for this blog, with the selection being #2 Warbling. This daughter of Unbridled's Song goes 3rd off the layoff for trainer Eddie Kenneally. She has tactical speed, but can rally as well. The distance will be no problem and she should float up from her 4/1 morning line. The other horse is the favorite #4 Informed Decision. She cuts back after a winning a rare race around two turns and looks to be in fine form third off the layoff. The distance is not a problem.
Race 11: Grade 1 King's Bishop S. - 7 furlongs
#1 Latigo Shore Dominguez R A 117 L
#2 Hurricane Ike Borel C H 119 L
#3 D' Funnybone Prado E S 123 L
#4 Discreetly Mine Velazquez J R 123 L
#5 Bulldogger Garcia M 117 L
#6 Bank Merger Garcia Alan 117 L
#7 In Jack's Memory Mena M 117 L
This blog will take a chance in the pick 4 by singling #3 D'Funnybone. He comes in off a brief freshening and has run well off the layoff. He is undefeated at the Spa and at the distance (4-4). He will have to hold off #4 Discreetly Mine, who is coming off a smashing win in the Grade 2 Amsterdam here at Saratoga. Both will sit off #5 Bulldogger, who has blistering speed but will get the class test in this race.
Race 12: Grade 1 Travers S. - 1m & 1/4
#1 Miner's Reserve Cohen D 126
#2 Trappe Shot Garcia Alan 126
#3 Admiral Alex Desormeaux K 126
#4 First Dude Dominguez R 126
#5 A Little Warm Velazquez J 126
#6 Ice Box Leparoux J 126
#7 Afleet Express Castellano J 126
#8 Fly Down Lezcano J 126
#9 Friend Or Foe Maragh R 126
#10 Afleet Again Velasquez C 126
#11 Super Saver Borel C 126
The main event is a real brainteaser, as only Super Saver has won at the distance before. Only two come in off a win. Most are untested at the distance. The division leader, Lookin at Lucky, did not make the trip from southern California due to spiking a fever on the return trip from his win in the Haskell. The lukewarm favorite is #5 A Little Warm. This son of Stormin Fever won the local prep, the Grade 2 Jim Dandy last time out. He stalked the #1 Miner's Reserve around the track and took over in the stretch. He has two good maintenance works in the interim. There are questions over whether he can last the mile and a quarter, especially with the expected quick splits. he will be attending.
The selection is #7 Afleet Express. This son of Afleet Alex, sire of three in the field, finished a lackluster 3rd in the Jim Dandy. This blog feels that the race was an aberration caused by the odd spacing between his last two races and the fact that the horses who ran 1-2 were 2-1 the whole way around. There have been two steady works in the interim, and he deserves another chance. At 6-1 on the morning line, he should offer some value, but by no means is a single.
Others to consider are #8 Fly Down, who was the favorite in the Jim Dandy but failed to produce his best and #11 Super Saver, who won the Derby but was well beaten his last two starts. This blog is taking a stand against #2 Trappe Shot, who may end up the favorite off of his 2nd in the Haskell. This blog doesn't feel that he is at his optimum at this distance, and his depressed price creates zero value in the sequence
To recap, the ticket is:
Victory Ride: Touching Beauty, Beyondallboundarys, Rapport, Sister Dawn, Katy Now
Ballerina: Warbling, Informed Decision
King's Bishop: D'funnybone
Travers: Afleet Express, Fly Down, A Little Warm, Super Saver
A $40 ticket in total.
This sequence lacks any heavy favorites, and could easily pay over a thousand dollars. This blog wishes all good luck and great betting!
Friday, August 20, 2010
Coast-to-Coast Filly Face-Offs
This weekend, the top of the 3yo filly division squares off on the dirt and the turf in the two bastions of summer racing, Saratoga and Del Mar. The Grade 1 Alabama S. going a mile and a quarter on the main track at Saratoga, while the grass fillies will be going a mile and an eighth in the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks over the Jimmy Durante turf course. These races may provide some clarity to each division, as most of the division leaders are running in these races. Or maybe the divisions will be thrown into further disarray, if this blog's selections are correct. Let's start with the Alabama, then come out west for the Del Mar Oaks.
#1 Acting Happy Lezcano J 121 12-1
#2 Devil May Care Velazquez J 121 7-5
#3 Tizahit Prado E 121 20-1
#4 Blind Luck Rosario J 121 8-5
#5 Connie and Michael Maragh R 121 10-1
#6 Havre de Grace Rose J 121 4-1
The morning line favorite is #2 Devil May Care. This daughter of Malibu Moon has rebounded from a sub-par effort in the Kentucky Derby to easily defeat her two compact fields in the Grade 1 Mother Goose and Grade 1 CCA Oaks. (Her Oaks win below)
She has trained well in the interim, but the distance may be a question mark. Also, both times she ran third off the layoff, a poor performance ensued, with the caveat that both times had extraordinary circumstances attached. I'm not a big fan of not having any works beyond 4 furlongs for any race going a mile an an eighth or further. She is a contender, but not the pick.
The second morning line choice by the slimmest of margins is #4 Blind Luck. This daughter of Pollard's Vision comes off another one of her trademark cardiac victories, getting up by a nose over #6 Harve de Grace in the Grade 2 Delaware Oaks (below).
Blind Luck worked steadily in the interim, keeping her top form. But one has to worry about the distance with her as well, as her pedigree does not scream 1m & 1/4. Also, this her 4th cross country trip (Oaklawn, Churchill, Delaware) this year, since she returns back to her SoCal home base after each race. That amount of travel can wear down anything. Is today the day all that traveling gets to her? She is another contender, but not the pick.
Who then is this blog's selection? It is #1 Acting Happy. This daughter of Empire Maker was defeated by Devil May Care in her last start, but it was her first start in 2 months and she ran a little short. She comes in 2nd off the layoff, a favorite angle of the blog, with two maintenance works in the interim. She should have less of a problem with the distance based on her pedigree than the two favorites. Her last race before the CCA Oaks was her victory in the G1 Black-eyed Susan (below).
She will be tracking from just off the pace of (assumed) pace setter #5 Connie and Michael. She will have first jump on both of the favorites, make her move turning for home, and hopefully will hold on to pull off the huge upset.
This blog will be betting Acting Happy to win, and exacta boxes with Blind Luck and Devil May Care. No matter what, this should be a very interesting race.
Now we head clear across the country to "where the turf meets the surf" Del Mar for the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks. Here's the field:
#1 Berg Bahn (IRE) A O Solis 122
#2 Antares World F Alvarado 122
#3 Perfect Shirl C Sutherland 122
#4 Evening Jewel V Espinoza 122
#5 Distinctive (GB)B Blanc 122
#6 Harmonious M E Smith 122
#7 It Tiz (D R Flores 122
#8 Weekend Magic A Quinonez 122
#9 Crisp R Bejarano 122
#10 Warren's Jitterbug P A Valenzuela 122
The favorite probably will be #4 Evening Jewel. This daughter of Northern Afleet will attempt to win another Grade 1 race after her win in the Ashland at Keeneland over the Polytrack. She has great positional speed, and should be in a good spot. She has had three steady works over this course, where she won the local prep for this race, the Grade 2 San Clemente. However, at each of races at this distance, she has been life and death to hang on at any race past a mile, like today's race distance of a mile and an eighth. With some of the new faces she is facing for the first time today, this blog thinks she is very vulnerable.
The East Coast invader #3 Perfect Shirl is a stretch-running daughter of Perfect Soul who won the Grade 2 Lake George Handicap at Saratoga last time out. Her training at her home base of Woodbine has come along nicely since the win, and she brings in tow her jockey Chantal Sutherland, who was aboard for her first two victories of her career. This 1/2 sis to multiple graded stakes winners Shakespeare and Lady Shakespeare But this Del Mar course will have the shortest stretch of any course she has run on in her career. She is also a smallish filly who is shipping for the 2nd time in under a month. The fact that she will probably be an underlay in the betting is the final reason she is not the selection, but remains a must-use in the exotics.
The pick is the horse who is most likely to be the 2nd or 3rd favorite, depending on the money on Perfect Shirl, #6 Harmonious. This daughter of Dynaformer won the Grade 1 American Oaks last time out. (below)
She hasn't missed a beat in the morning since, with 5 works in the 49 day interim. Her trainer has little problem bringing horses back off this kind of layoff, and the distance will give her no problems. She gets back the services of jockey Mike Smith, who rode her in all starts prior to her last race. There seems to be enough speed to allow her to get a mid-pack tracking position early on, making her move at the top of the turn and hopefully winning going away.
The two foreign invaders #1 Berg Bahn and #5 Distinctive both present interesting prospects, but my limited knowledge of European racing makes it almost impossible to comment on their chances, other than to note that Alex Solis comes in from Saratoga to ride the #1.
Saturday shapes up to be a great day of racing for the fillies, no matter the surface or the coast. Will we have some clarity to the divisional rankings? Or will we have calamity instead? Either way, it will be fun. Good luck everybody!
#1 Acting Happy Lezcano J 121 12-1
#2 Devil May Care Velazquez J 121 7-5
#3 Tizahit Prado E 121 20-1
#4 Blind Luck Rosario J 121 8-5
#5 Connie and Michael Maragh R 121 10-1
#6 Havre de Grace Rose J 121 4-1
The morning line favorite is #2 Devil May Care. This daughter of Malibu Moon has rebounded from a sub-par effort in the Kentucky Derby to easily defeat her two compact fields in the Grade 1 Mother Goose and Grade 1 CCA Oaks. (Her Oaks win below)
She has trained well in the interim, but the distance may be a question mark. Also, both times she ran third off the layoff, a poor performance ensued, with the caveat that both times had extraordinary circumstances attached. I'm not a big fan of not having any works beyond 4 furlongs for any race going a mile an an eighth or further. She is a contender, but not the pick.
The second morning line choice by the slimmest of margins is #4 Blind Luck. This daughter of Pollard's Vision comes off another one of her trademark cardiac victories, getting up by a nose over #6 Harve de Grace in the Grade 2 Delaware Oaks (below).
Blind Luck worked steadily in the interim, keeping her top form. But one has to worry about the distance with her as well, as her pedigree does not scream 1m & 1/4. Also, this her 4th cross country trip (Oaklawn, Churchill, Delaware) this year, since she returns back to her SoCal home base after each race. That amount of travel can wear down anything. Is today the day all that traveling gets to her? She is another contender, but not the pick.
Who then is this blog's selection? It is #1 Acting Happy. This daughter of Empire Maker was defeated by Devil May Care in her last start, but it was her first start in 2 months and she ran a little short. She comes in 2nd off the layoff, a favorite angle of the blog, with two maintenance works in the interim. She should have less of a problem with the distance based on her pedigree than the two favorites. Her last race before the CCA Oaks was her victory in the G1 Black-eyed Susan (below).
She will be tracking from just off the pace of (assumed) pace setter #5 Connie and Michael. She will have first jump on both of the favorites, make her move turning for home, and hopefully will hold on to pull off the huge upset.
This blog will be betting Acting Happy to win, and exacta boxes with Blind Luck and Devil May Care. No matter what, this should be a very interesting race.
Now we head clear across the country to "where the turf meets the surf" Del Mar for the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks. Here's the field:
#1 Berg Bahn (IRE) A O Solis 122
#2 Antares World F Alvarado 122
#3 Perfect Shirl C Sutherland 122
#4 Evening Jewel V Espinoza 122
#5 Distinctive (GB)B Blanc 122
#6 Harmonious M E Smith 122
#7 It Tiz (D R Flores 122
#8 Weekend Magic A Quinonez 122
#9 Crisp R Bejarano 122
#10 Warren's Jitterbug P A Valenzuela 122
The favorite probably will be #4 Evening Jewel. This daughter of Northern Afleet will attempt to win another Grade 1 race after her win in the Ashland at Keeneland over the Polytrack. She has great positional speed, and should be in a good spot. She has had three steady works over this course, where she won the local prep for this race, the Grade 2 San Clemente. However, at each of races at this distance, she has been life and death to hang on at any race past a mile, like today's race distance of a mile and an eighth. With some of the new faces she is facing for the first time today, this blog thinks she is very vulnerable.
The East Coast invader #3 Perfect Shirl is a stretch-running daughter of Perfect Soul who won the Grade 2 Lake George Handicap at Saratoga last time out. Her training at her home base of Woodbine has come along nicely since the win, and she brings in tow her jockey Chantal Sutherland, who was aboard for her first two victories of her career. This 1/2 sis to multiple graded stakes winners Shakespeare and Lady Shakespeare But this Del Mar course will have the shortest stretch of any course she has run on in her career. She is also a smallish filly who is shipping for the 2nd time in under a month. The fact that she will probably be an underlay in the betting is the final reason she is not the selection, but remains a must-use in the exotics.
The pick is the horse who is most likely to be the 2nd or 3rd favorite, depending on the money on Perfect Shirl, #6 Harmonious. This daughter of Dynaformer won the Grade 1 American Oaks last time out. (below)
She hasn't missed a beat in the morning since, with 5 works in the 49 day interim. Her trainer has little problem bringing horses back off this kind of layoff, and the distance will give her no problems. She gets back the services of jockey Mike Smith, who rode her in all starts prior to her last race. There seems to be enough speed to allow her to get a mid-pack tracking position early on, making her move at the top of the turn and hopefully winning going away.
The two foreign invaders #1 Berg Bahn and #5 Distinctive both present interesting prospects, but my limited knowledge of European racing makes it almost impossible to comment on their chances, other than to note that Alex Solis comes in from Saratoga to ride the #1.
Saturday shapes up to be a great day of racing for the fillies, no matter the surface or the coast. Will we have some clarity to the divisional rankings? Or will we have calamity instead? Either way, it will be fun. Good luck everybody!
Thursday, August 5, 2010
A Test for Blame
This Saturday, there will be several great races. Zenyatta will attempt to continue her undefeated streak alive in the Clement L. Hirsch. Several great two year old races will be run, with the chance that a future star might emerge. But this blog will be paying the most attention to Saratoga. Why? Blame. Blame will be taking on the leader in the handicap division, Quality Road, and 4 others in the Grade 1 Whitney Handicap. But first we will discuss race before (Race 9), the Grade 1 Test.
Test S. Grade 1 - 7 furlongs
#1 Pica Slew M R Cruz 118 7/2
#2 Buckleupbuttercup J R Leparoux 118 6/1
#3 Champagne d'Oro M Mena 122 8/1
#4 Bonnie Blue Flag J R Velazquez 116 6/1
#6 Lovely Lil A Garcia 116 20/1
#7 Belle of the Hall R A Dominguez 116 10/1
#8 Ash Zee R Maragh 116 10/1
#9 Christine Daae P Fragoso 116 15/1
#10 Tidal Pool C H Borel 116 15/1
One horse missing is #5 Franny Freud, who was the morning line favorite. I took her off the entry list because she has unfortunately been withdrawn, and subsequently retired, due to an injury. It is nothing serious, but it was enough to end her racing career. May she enjoy happiness in her new life as a broodmare.
The selection is #2 Buckleupbuttercup. This daughter of Najran (who is also the sire of blog favorite Wasted Tears) finished an onrushing 2nd last time out in the Grade 3 Azalea Stakes at Calder Race Course last time out, being beaten by #1 Pica Slew. "B-cup" gets another furlong to work with to unleash her stretch run. She has had two steady works in the interim and keeps Leparoux in the saddle, who was aboard last out and for her win in the G3 Eight Belles.
2nd choice is #7 Belle of the Hall. This undefeated daughter of Graeme Hall won the Jostle S. at Philadelphia Park last time out. She lured Ramon Dominguez from his base at Belmont to come out for the mount. She has had 6 steady works for her 1st start in 2 months. She will make her run from mid-pack.
The 3rd choice is #9 Christine Daae. This daughter of Giant's Causeway comes off a 5th place finish against the boys in the G3 Jersey Shore at Monmouth Park. When last seen against her own sex, she lost a photo in a 100k stake. Christine was consider a trendy pick for the Kentucky Oaks after her maiden and first-level allowance wins this winter at Gulfstream, but she was hooked in a speed duel in the G2 Bonnie Miss S and was on the shelf until that 100k stake. She has 2 fast works since her last race and should get a decent trip sitting just off the leaders.
Picks: #2 Buckleupbuttercup, #7 Belle of the Hall, #9 Christine Daae
Now the main event, the coup de grâce, the star of the card, the Grade 1 $750,000 Whitney Handicap.
#1 Mine That Bird C H Borel 118 12/1
#2 Blame G K Gomez 121 4/1
#3 Quality Road J R Velazquez 126 2/5
#4 Haynesfield R A Dominguez 116 12/1
#5 Jardim (BRZ) J R Leparoux 113 30/1
#6 Musket Man R Maragh 117 6/1
It will come to no shock to those who read this blog that the selection is #2 Blame . This son of Arch has had 6 steady works in the interim, including the last two over the surface. According to my sources, he is doing well and has taken to his upstate surroundings with ease. Blame is getting 5 pounds in the weights from Quality Road. (Which in this blog's eyes is not enough, but oh well) He should be sitting 3rd or 4th behind the two front-runners Quality Road and Haynesfield, with Jardim either right in front or right behind Blame. Blame will take over from a softened-up QR in deep stretch and win by 1/2 a length.
If #2 Quality Road can avoid being too eager to chase down Haynesfield, he probably will win by open lengths. Make no mistake: Quality Road at a mile and an eighth is a dangerous animal. Blame will have his work cut out, but this blog believes that he will be able to pull the upset.
This Saturday at Saratoga, The 3yo fillies will have a new leader among the sprinters, and the older males will have either a finer "Quality" to it or there will be someone to "Blame" for a clouded picture. Either way, it ought to be a great day of racing. Good luck everybody!
Test S. Grade 1 - 7 furlongs
#1 Pica Slew M R Cruz 118 7/2
#2 Buckleupbuttercup J R Leparoux 118 6/1
#3 Champagne d'Oro M Mena 122 8/1
#4 Bonnie Blue Flag J R Velazquez 116 6/1
#6 Lovely Lil A Garcia 116 20/1
#7 Belle of the Hall R A Dominguez 116 10/1
#8 Ash Zee R Maragh 116 10/1
#9 Christine Daae P Fragoso 116 15/1
#10 Tidal Pool C H Borel 116 15/1
One horse missing is #5 Franny Freud, who was the morning line favorite. I took her off the entry list because she has unfortunately been withdrawn, and subsequently retired, due to an injury. It is nothing serious, but it was enough to end her racing career. May she enjoy happiness in her new life as a broodmare.
The selection is #2 Buckleupbuttercup. This daughter of Najran (who is also the sire of blog favorite Wasted Tears) finished an onrushing 2nd last time out in the Grade 3 Azalea Stakes at Calder Race Course last time out, being beaten by #1 Pica Slew. "B-cup" gets another furlong to work with to unleash her stretch run. She has had two steady works in the interim and keeps Leparoux in the saddle, who was aboard last out and for her win in the G3 Eight Belles.
2nd choice is #7 Belle of the Hall. This undefeated daughter of Graeme Hall won the Jostle S. at Philadelphia Park last time out. She lured Ramon Dominguez from his base at Belmont to come out for the mount. She has had 6 steady works for her 1st start in 2 months. She will make her run from mid-pack.
The 3rd choice is #9 Christine Daae. This daughter of Giant's Causeway comes off a 5th place finish against the boys in the G3 Jersey Shore at Monmouth Park. When last seen against her own sex, she lost a photo in a 100k stake. Christine was consider a trendy pick for the Kentucky Oaks after her maiden and first-level allowance wins this winter at Gulfstream, but she was hooked in a speed duel in the G2 Bonnie Miss S and was on the shelf until that 100k stake. She has 2 fast works since her last race and should get a decent trip sitting just off the leaders.
Picks: #2 Buckleupbuttercup, #7 Belle of the Hall, #9 Christine Daae
Now the main event, the coup de grâce, the star of the card, the Grade 1 $750,000 Whitney Handicap.
#1 Mine That Bird C H Borel 118 12/1
#2 Blame G K Gomez 121 4/1
#3 Quality Road J R Velazquez 126 2/5
#4 Haynesfield R A Dominguez 116 12/1
#5 Jardim (BRZ) J R Leparoux 113 30/1
#6 Musket Man R Maragh 117 6/1
It will come to no shock to those who read this blog that the selection is #2 Blame . This son of Arch has had 6 steady works in the interim, including the last two over the surface. According to my sources, he is doing well and has taken to his upstate surroundings with ease. Blame is getting 5 pounds in the weights from Quality Road. (Which in this blog's eyes is not enough, but oh well) He should be sitting 3rd or 4th behind the two front-runners Quality Road and Haynesfield, with Jardim either right in front or right behind Blame. Blame will take over from a softened-up QR in deep stretch and win by 1/2 a length.
If #2 Quality Road can avoid being too eager to chase down Haynesfield, he probably will win by open lengths. Make no mistake: Quality Road at a mile and an eighth is a dangerous animal. Blame will have his work cut out, but this blog believes that he will be able to pull the upset.
This Saturday at Saratoga, The 3yo fillies will have a new leader among the sprinters, and the older males will have either a finer "Quality" to it or there will be someone to "Blame" for a clouded picture. Either way, it ought to be a great day of racing. Good luck everybody!
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