Drought Report 2012 - Grade 3 Sham Stakes

With the change in the calendar to 2012, the search once again begins in earnest for a three year old who can end the drought. The now nearly 23 year-long drought since a winner of a the Santa Anita Derby has gone on to win the Kentucky Derby. The first step to finding who will be the one to carry the chances to end the drought is the Grade 3 $100,000 Sham Stakes going one mile. This race has moved around the calendar the last few years and has replaced the now-defunct San Rafael (which was run at the same distance) with the cutback to one mile after last year's running at 1m & 1/16th. A field of six runners comes together, a mix of stakes winners and horses who just broke their maiden.

The morning line favorite will be Secret Circle. This Bob Baffert trainee was last seen gamely holding on in the inaugural running of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint. This will be the furthest he has ever run as he stretches out to two turns for the race. This son of Eddington shouldn't have a problem with the extra distance from a pedigree standpoint, as his sire won several stakes at 9f and further, and his dam having won going two turns as well. He is a horse with ample speed, though as he showed in the Jack Goodman Stakes, he does not need the lead to win. His workouts have been the typical swift Baffert drills in the A.M. He figures to be on the lead or sitting just off a swift pace, a plus on this track.

Out of Bounds (right) broke his maiden last time out across town at Hollywood Park going 7 furlongs. He stalked a solid pace and won at 7 furlongs. He extends another furlong today and returns to dirt in this stake. He loses the jockey who rode him for his first two starts to the favorite, but picks up a more-than-adequate replacement in the red-hot Garrett Gomez, who won several stakes opening week. His workouts have been fast across town at Hollywood Park since the win, which is not the norm for his conservative trainer Eoin Harty. The extra furlong should not be a problem based on his pedigree, as both his sire and dam won going nine furlongs. He is a three-quarter brother to blog favorite Etched, who also won going a mile and an eighth. (Etched is by Out of Bounds grandsire Forestry out of the dam Unbridled Elaine.) He figures to be sitting mid-pack behind the speed and making a run turning for home.

Hierro ships in from Kentucky, along with the rest of the Asmussen contingent, looking to win this race in back-to-back years for the barn. (Tapizar won this race last year) This son of Hard Spun broke his maiden in his third try at the 7 furlong distance last time out. He brings along with him the jockey who rode him in that win in from out-of-town, Julien Leparoux. He is another who stretches out another furlong and goes two turns for the first time. He has worked like clockwork since his arrival, including a bullet two works back. He has been well backed in the future books in Vegas, as he has bet down to a low 25/1. (As a reference point, the favorite is Union Rags at 10/1, Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner is 18/1). His pedigree does not figure to be an issue going one mile, as his sire won going 9 furlongs. He sat off a less-than-blistering pace in his win, so he figures to project to be mid-pack, probably near Out of Bounds.

The other three who make up the field are: Senor Rain, who figures to add to pace, even with the blinkers being taken off; Longview Drive, who comes off a third-place finish in the Delta Jackpot (just like last year's Sham runner-up Clubhouse Ride) and seems to have discovered a passing gear; and Handsome Mike, who cuts back a sixteenth when fading late after setting swift fractions in the Hollywood Futurity. All three have route experience in stakes, with varying results.

The pick is Out of Bounds, as either he or Secret Circle figures to be the one to take advantage of the expected solid pace, and he will be the better price. He will take the first stone of the path to figuring out who will be this year's possible "Drought Breaker".

Good luck folks!

A Test for Blame

This Saturday, there will be several great races. Zenyatta will attempt to continue her undefeated streak alive in the Clement L. Hirsch. Several great two year old races will be run, with the chance that a future star might emerge. But this blog will be paying the most attention to Saratoga. Why? Blame. Blame will be taking on the leader in the handicap division, Quality Road, and 4 others in the Grade 1 Whitney Handicap. But first we will discuss race before (Race 9), the Grade 1 Test.

Test S. Grade 1 - 7 furlongs

#1 Pica Slew M R Cruz 118 7/2
#2 Buckleupbuttercup J R Leparoux 118 6/1
#3 Champagne d'Oro M Mena 122 8/1
#4 Bonnie Blue Flag J R Velazquez 116 6/1
#6 Lovely Lil A Garcia 116 20/1
#7 Belle of the Hall R A Dominguez 116 10/1
#8 Ash Zee R Maragh 116 10/1
#9 Christine Daae P Fragoso 116 15/1
#10 Tidal Pool C H Borel 116 15/1

One horse missing is #5 Franny Freud, who was the morning line favorite. I took her off the entry list because she has unfortunately been withdrawn, and subsequently retired, due to an injury. It is nothing serious, but it was enough to end her racing career. May she enjoy happiness in her new life as a broodmare.

The selection is #2 Buckleupbuttercup. This daughter of Najran (who is also the sire of blog favorite Wasted Tears) finished an onrushing 2nd last time out in the Grade 3 Azalea Stakes at Calder Race Course last time out, being beaten by #1 Pica Slew. "B-cup" gets another furlong to work with to unleash her stretch run. She has had two steady works in the interim and keeps Leparoux in the saddle, who was aboard last out and for her win in the G3 Eight Belles.

2nd choice is #7 Belle of the Hall. This undefeated daughter of Graeme Hall won the Jostle S. at Philadelphia Park last time out. She lured Ramon Dominguez from his base at Belmont to come out for the mount. She has had 6 steady works for her 1st start in 2 months. She will make her run from mid-pack.

The 3rd choice is #9 Christine Daae. This daughter of Giant's Causeway comes off a 5th place finish against the boys in the G3 Jersey Shore at Monmouth Park. When last seen against her own sex, she lost a photo in a 100k stake. Christine was consider a trendy pick for the Kentucky Oaks after her maiden and first-level allowance wins this winter at Gulfstream, but she was hooked in a speed duel in the G2 Bonnie Miss S and was on the shelf until that 100k stake. She has 2 fast works since her last race and should get a decent trip sitting just off the leaders.

Picks: #2 Buckleupbuttercup, #7 Belle of the Hall, #9 Christine Daae

Now the main event, the coup de grâce, the star of the card, the Grade 1 $750,000 Whitney Handicap.
#1 Mine That Bird C H Borel 118 12/1
#2 Blame G K Gomez 121 4/1
#3 Quality Road J R Velazquez 126 2/5
#4 Haynesfield R A Dominguez 116 12/1
#5 Jardim (BRZ) J R Leparoux 113 30/1
#6 Musket Man R Maragh 117 6/1

It will come to no shock to those who read this blog that the selection is #2 Blame . This son of Arch has had 6 steady works in the interim, including the last two over the surface. According to my sources, he is doing well and has taken to his upstate surroundings with ease. Blame is getting 5 pounds in the weights from Quality Road. (Which in this blog's eyes is not enough, but oh well) He should be sitting 3rd or 4th behind the two front-runners Quality Road and Haynesfield, with Jardim either right in front or right behind Blame. Blame will take over from a softened-up QR in deep stretch and win by 1/2 a length.

If #2 Quality Road can avoid being too eager to chase down Haynesfield, he probably will win by open lengths. Make no mistake: Quality Road at a mile and an eighth is a dangerous animal. Blame will have his work cut out, but this blog believes that he will be able to pull the upset.

This Saturday at Saratoga, The 3yo fillies will have a new leader among the sprinters, and the older males will have either a finer "Quality" to it or there will be someone to "Blame" for a clouded picture. Either way, it ought to be a great day of racing. Good luck everybody!