Drought Report 2012 - Catch-Up

Since the last report, the whole picture has changed in the search for the Drought Breaker. A fresh face stunned in the Lewis. The clubhouse leader came back from his layoff to suffer a loss to stubborn rival. Some horses fell off the trail. All that and Bob Baffert won everything in sight. Let's get to a bullet-point style recap of what has happen since the last report...

(Please forgive the time since the last post. I have been dealing with some personal issues that has made hard to blog at all.)

• I'll Have Another came off a five month layoff to spurt away from the field in the Grade 2 Robert B Lewis S. back on Feb. 4th. He tracked the pacesetter, made his move turning for home and drew off. His pedigree says that ten furlongs shouldn't be a problem, but the fact that his next race will be the Santa Anita Derby is off-putting. Two non-consecutive preps leading up to the Kentucky Derby is serious uncharted territory . He came back to work on 2/23, going four furlongs in 48.60 over at Hollywood Park.
• The runner-up in the Lewis was Empire Way. This full brother to champion 3yo filly Royal Delta closed from last to get second, picking off the rest of the field without being a threat to the winner. Another horse without distance limitations, he should only get better as the year continues (based on his sister's campaign). He has worked twice since the last race, most recently on 2/25 at Hollywood Park, going six furlongs in 1:14. He is pointing to the San Felipe Stakes.
• As for the other runners from the Lewis, Sky Kingdom was subsequently hurt and is off the Derby trail.  Liaison bounced off his subpar effort (he was going nowhere when he fell in the stretch) with two works since the race, the latest being on 2/22 at one mile in 1:43 at Santa Anita. His rival Rousing Sermon came back from his 4th-place finish (moved up to 3rd via DQ) with three works, the latest on 2/27 going six furlongs in 1:13.20 at Hollywood Park. Groovin' Solo, who was placed last via DQ after originally finishing third, came back from the race to post on 2/26 a bullet five furlong work in 58.80 at Santa Anita.
• The Grade 2 San Vicente on President's Day weekend marked the 2012 debut of Creative Cause. The winner of the G1 Norfolk and 3rd in the BC Juvenile, he was the heavy favorite in what turned out to be a four-horse field. He was a little flat and ended up third in the race. His trainer Mike Harrington (who also trains Empire Way) said that he will be headed to Oaklawn Park for the Rebel Stakes for his next start. His nemesis Drill was looking to right the ship after a disastrous last few races, and today was his day, as he ground his way past the pacesetter American Act in the stretch. Drill's trainer Bob Baffert said that he will be kept around one turn for foreseeable future. Maybe a possible start in the Met Mile?
• In other races at Santa Anita, Bodemeister dusted a maiden special weight on 2/11. Named for Baffert's son Bode, his stylish win has his trainer putting him into stakes competition next time out. He worked on 2/26 going six furlongs in 1:14 at Santa Anita. Fed Biz (another Baffert trainee) won a first-level allowance race on 2/9. He is headed for the G2 San Felipe in his next start. He worked on 2/22 six furlongs in 1:16 at Santa Anita.
• On President's Day at Oaklawn Park, the Bob Baffert show continued, as he won both divisions of the Southwest Stakes. In the first division, Castaway attended a soft pace and kicked away to win. In the second division. Secret Circle sat right on the pace and ground his way to a win. Their trainer said he would be back with a runner for the Rebel Stakes, but no guarantee it would be either of his entrants.
• Other workers of note are Sabercat, Delta Jackpot winner, who worked on 2/26 five furlongs in 1:00.80 at Santa Anita; Midnight Transfer, San Pedro Stakes winner, who worked on 2/26 seven furlongs in 1:24.80 at Santa Anita. Both of them are being pointed to the San Felipe Stakes

There is a brief recap of most of the possible contenders for the Drought Breaker. With the San Felipe in two weeks, the picture will hopefully become clearer. Good luck folks.

Drought Report 2012 - Grade 3 Sham Stakes

With the change in the calendar to 2012, the search once again begins in earnest for a three year old who can end the drought. The now nearly 23 year-long drought since a winner of a the Santa Anita Derby has gone on to win the Kentucky Derby. The first step to finding who will be the one to carry the chances to end the drought is the Grade 3 $100,000 Sham Stakes going one mile. This race has moved around the calendar the last few years and has replaced the now-defunct San Rafael (which was run at the same distance) with the cutback to one mile after last year's running at 1m & 1/16th. A field of six runners comes together, a mix of stakes winners and horses who just broke their maiden.

The morning line favorite will be Secret Circle. This Bob Baffert trainee was last seen gamely holding on in the inaugural running of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint. This will be the furthest he has ever run as he stretches out to two turns for the race. This son of Eddington shouldn't have a problem with the extra distance from a pedigree standpoint, as his sire won several stakes at 9f and further, and his dam having won going two turns as well. He is a horse with ample speed, though as he showed in the Jack Goodman Stakes, he does not need the lead to win. His workouts have been the typical swift Baffert drills in the A.M. He figures to be on the lead or sitting just off a swift pace, a plus on this track.

Out of Bounds (right) broke his maiden last time out across town at Hollywood Park going 7 furlongs. He stalked a solid pace and won at 7 furlongs. He extends another furlong today and returns to dirt in this stake. He loses the jockey who rode him for his first two starts to the favorite, but picks up a more-than-adequate replacement in the red-hot Garrett Gomez, who won several stakes opening week. His workouts have been fast across town at Hollywood Park since the win, which is not the norm for his conservative trainer Eoin Harty. The extra furlong should not be a problem based on his pedigree, as both his sire and dam won going nine furlongs. He is a three-quarter brother to blog favorite Etched, who also won going a mile and an eighth. (Etched is by Out of Bounds grandsire Forestry out of the dam Unbridled Elaine.) He figures to be sitting mid-pack behind the speed and making a run turning for home.

Hierro ships in from Kentucky, along with the rest of the Asmussen contingent, looking to win this race in back-to-back years for the barn. (Tapizar won this race last year) This son of Hard Spun broke his maiden in his third try at the 7 furlong distance last time out. He brings along with him the jockey who rode him in that win in from out-of-town, Julien Leparoux. He is another who stretches out another furlong and goes two turns for the first time. He has worked like clockwork since his arrival, including a bullet two works back. He has been well backed in the future books in Vegas, as he has bet down to a low 25/1. (As a reference point, the favorite is Union Rags at 10/1, Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner is 18/1). His pedigree does not figure to be an issue going one mile, as his sire won going 9 furlongs. He sat off a less-than-blistering pace in his win, so he figures to project to be mid-pack, probably near Out of Bounds.

The other three who make up the field are: Senor Rain, who figures to add to pace, even with the blinkers being taken off; Longview Drive, who comes off a third-place finish in the Delta Jackpot (just like last year's Sham runner-up Clubhouse Ride) and seems to have discovered a passing gear; and Handsome Mike, who cuts back a sixteenth when fading late after setting swift fractions in the Hollywood Futurity. All three have route experience in stakes, with varying results.

The pick is Out of Bounds, as either he or Secret Circle figures to be the one to take advantage of the expected solid pace, and he will be the better price. He will take the first stone of the path to figuring out who will be this year's possible "Drought Breaker".

Good luck folks!