Drought Report 2012 - San Felipe Stakes

The San Felipe Stakes is the last local prep for the Santa Anita Derby. This race will most likely provide several runners for next month's race. This race has produced several Grade 1 winners in its past. It has been 11 years since it produced back-to-back Kentucky Derby winners in Point Given and Fusaichi Pegasus. This year's field is an even matched group of ten runners. To see full analysis of the race, go on over to the Thorofan's Handicapper's Corner, where I wrote about the race for them. Short version: Midnight Transfer earns the same trip I'll Have Another had in the Lewis, wins going away, with the Harrington-trained duo & Rousing Sermon collecting the minor awards.

In other news:

• Out of Bounds missed this race and is off the trail after suffering an injury in his last work before the race. He had successful surgery and will be back for a 2013 campaign.
• Fed Biz also missed this race because of a minor issue. He is already back on track galloping, and will be pointed to either the Santa Anita Derby.
• Delta Jackpot winner Sabercat will make his first start of the year in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park, where he could be joined by several others from out here, including at least one Baffert trainee (either Secret Circle or Castaway).
• Last year's San Felipe winner Premier Pegasus is still on the mend after a setback from his previous injury, We wish him a speedy recovery.

Good luck this weekend folks.

Drought Report 2012 - Catch-Up

Since the last report, the whole picture has changed in the search for the Drought Breaker. A fresh face stunned in the Lewis. The clubhouse leader came back from his layoff to suffer a loss to stubborn rival. Some horses fell off the trail. All that and Bob Baffert won everything in sight. Let's get to a bullet-point style recap of what has happen since the last report...

(Please forgive the time since the last post. I have been dealing with some personal issues that has made hard to blog at all.)

• I'll Have Another came off a five month layoff to spurt away from the field in the Grade 2 Robert B Lewis S. back on Feb. 4th. He tracked the pacesetter, made his move turning for home and drew off. His pedigree says that ten furlongs shouldn't be a problem, but the fact that his next race will be the Santa Anita Derby is off-putting. Two non-consecutive preps leading up to the Kentucky Derby is serious uncharted territory . He came back to work on 2/23, going four furlongs in 48.60 over at Hollywood Park.
• The runner-up in the Lewis was Empire Way. This full brother to champion 3yo filly Royal Delta closed from last to get second, picking off the rest of the field without being a threat to the winner. Another horse without distance limitations, he should only get better as the year continues (based on his sister's campaign). He has worked twice since the last race, most recently on 2/25 at Hollywood Park, going six furlongs in 1:14. He is pointing to the San Felipe Stakes.
• As for the other runners from the Lewis, Sky Kingdom was subsequently hurt and is off the Derby trail.  Liaison bounced off his subpar effort (he was going nowhere when he fell in the stretch) with two works since the race, the latest being on 2/22 at one mile in 1:43 at Santa Anita. His rival Rousing Sermon came back from his 4th-place finish (moved up to 3rd via DQ) with three works, the latest on 2/27 going six furlongs in 1:13.20 at Hollywood Park. Groovin' Solo, who was placed last via DQ after originally finishing third, came back from the race to post on 2/26 a bullet five furlong work in 58.80 at Santa Anita.
• The Grade 2 San Vicente on President's Day weekend marked the 2012 debut of Creative Cause. The winner of the G1 Norfolk and 3rd in the BC Juvenile, he was the heavy favorite in what turned out to be a four-horse field. He was a little flat and ended up third in the race. His trainer Mike Harrington (who also trains Empire Way) said that he will be headed to Oaklawn Park for the Rebel Stakes for his next start. His nemesis Drill was looking to right the ship after a disastrous last few races, and today was his day, as he ground his way past the pacesetter American Act in the stretch. Drill's trainer Bob Baffert said that he will be kept around one turn for foreseeable future. Maybe a possible start in the Met Mile?
• In other races at Santa Anita, Bodemeister dusted a maiden special weight on 2/11. Named for Baffert's son Bode, his stylish win has his trainer putting him into stakes competition next time out. He worked on 2/26 going six furlongs in 1:14 at Santa Anita. Fed Biz (another Baffert trainee) won a first-level allowance race on 2/9. He is headed for the G2 San Felipe in his next start. He worked on 2/22 six furlongs in 1:16 at Santa Anita.
• On President's Day at Oaklawn Park, the Bob Baffert show continued, as he won both divisions of the Southwest Stakes. In the first division, Castaway attended a soft pace and kicked away to win. In the second division. Secret Circle sat right on the pace and ground his way to a win. Their trainer said he would be back with a runner for the Rebel Stakes, but no guarantee it would be either of his entrants.
• Other workers of note are Sabercat, Delta Jackpot winner, who worked on 2/26 five furlongs in 1:00.80 at Santa Anita; Midnight Transfer, San Pedro Stakes winner, who worked on 2/26 seven furlongs in 1:24.80 at Santa Anita. Both of them are being pointed to the San Felipe Stakes

There is a brief recap of most of the possible contenders for the Drought Breaker. With the San Felipe in two weeks, the picture will hopefully become clearer. Good luck folks.

Drought Report 2012 - First Update

With the first graded stake at Santa Anita for the Derby group run, now would be a good time to give a brief look at many of the possible horses who could carry the mantle of the "Drought Breaker" to Kentucky the first Saturday in May. This list comprises a mix of grade one winners, other stakes winners, flashy maiden winners and a maiden. The colts are a diverse group of pedigrees, from sprint-leaning to run-all-day types. Some will be pointing to the sprint (San Vicente), while others will be headed toward the Lewis for their next start, with a few hoping to get that elusive allowance race to fill. Let us take a look.

Note: This post was intended to run before the Sham, as a way to introduce everyone to this group of 3yos, but due to "blog operator failure" it is coming out now instead.

Sky Kingdom gets the first nod solely because he will be the first to race among this group, as the ever elusive first level allowance race was used as the 2nd race on 1/12, even though it only had five entrants (two of them being Baffert trainees). This son of Empire Maker broke his maiden when he stretched out to two turns two starts back across town at Hollywood Park. He followed that up with a solid 4th in the Grade 1 Hollywood Futurity. He will be making his first start on dirt today, even though he has been working over the surface since October. His connections are hoping to take advantage of this rarely run condition to get this charge some more experience before tackling stakes once again. With his pedigree, the Derby distance will not be a problem, as his sire is a Belmont winner and his damsire is a well-known provider of stamina. His works haven't been the lightning quick spins his trainer is known for, but they are still solid works.

Brother Francis gets the next nod because he is entered in a maiden special weight on the grass for this Saturday (1/14). He closed strongly in a MSW and in the G3 Hollywood Prevue to finish 2nd in both races. He then followed it up with a fast-closing third in the G1 Hollywood Futurity. This son of Lion Heart is out of a mare who has plenty of distance in her pedigree, and the sire has produced a 12f winner in BC Turf winner Dangerous Midge. His connections obviously want to get a win while keeping him around two turns, and with the track playing with the way it has (favoring on or near the lead types), they have chosen to go the turf in order to get a win. He has worked in trainer's preferred steady manner since the Futurity.

Liaison won the aforementioned G1 Hollywood Futurity over Rousing Sermon. These two made up the exacta in the Real Quiet Stakes as well. Liaison has three solid 5 furlongs workouts since the race, and is most likely pointing to the G2 Robert Lewis stakes in February. Rousing Sermon has worked four times since the race and could be pointing to the same race, though it is possible that either could ship out of town for their next race. Here is a replay of the Hollywood Futurity:


Creative Cause is coming off a third in the G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile last time out. He took some time off the work tab after the race to freshen up for the Derby trail, and did not work until New Year's Eve. He is building towards his first start later in the meet, either the Lewis or the San Felipe. He should have little problem stretching out going forward, being by Giant's Causeway out of a mare who hit the board multiple times going nine furlongs. His stable and owner-mate  Empire Way is a full brother to the multiple Grade 1 winning filly ROYAL DELTA, who will most likely wins this year's Eclipse award for 3yo fillies. With her successes going very long, he should not have any trouble with this distance, though he does need to improve to contend with the better runners out here, as he missed the board in both his stakes attempts after his win. He has 3 solid works since the last race. His sister improved as the year went on, so maybe he will as well.

Trainer Steve Asmussen has a few Derby hopefuls as well. Even though his only trainee who is guaranteed a spot in the gate for the Kentucky Derby Sabercat didn't make the trip, he still has such up and comers as Wharton, Unbridled's Note, along with stakes placed Daddy Nose Best. The first two are coming off of maiden special weight wins on the first Stars of Tomorrow card at Churchill Downs. They both are training steadily here and will be looking to make their next start at some point towards the middle of the meet. Daddy Nose Best flopped as the chalk in the Eddie Logan Stakes, but his pedigree says that he should be fine routing on the dirt, something he has never done before. With a dearth of turf stakes in SoCal on the schedule, the connections will most likely find out whether he can truly dirt or not very soon,

Out of Bounds is the last one we will talk about, as he just won the G3 Sham Stakes going a mile at 10-1.  He came out of the race very well according to his connections, with plenty of energy. His connections have stated that he will be pointed to the Grade 2 San Felipe in March for his next start. As discussed in the last post, his chances to get 9 furlongs are strong, but that 10f in May will be a bit of challenge. We wish him and all of those on this list good luck and to stay healthy.

These are just a few of the possible horses who could be the one to earn the "Drought Breaker" mantle come the first Saturday in April. It could even be a horse who has not even made a single start yet, like last year's winner Midnight Interlude, who would not make his debut until the end of January. Whomever wins the Santa Anita Derby will earn the right to end the 23 year long streak. Good luck out there.

A Hollywood Prevue to a Star?

The stakes action starts off this Thanksgiving weekend at the track of the lakes and flowers with the Grade 3 Hollywood Prevue on Turkey Day. Going seven furlongs over the synthetic main track, this race is a prep for next month's Grade 1 Hollywood Futurity. This race in its past boasted winners such as Afternoon Deelites, Lion Heart and champion 2yo Declan's Moon, along with blog favorite Premier Pegasus. A possible star could break out with a strong performance. The field is a nice mix of stakes-tried horses and new shooters with buzz surrounding them. Let go over the field of eight, based on how they figure to run their respective races.

The probable front flight will consist of Sweet Swap, Hodge and So Brilliant (right). Sweet Swap dueled on the lead but faded late last time out in the Jack Goodman Stakes. The winner, Secret Circle, won the inaugural Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint next out. This full brother of Sidney's Candy will look to clear off from the rail. Hodge broke his maiden last time in a gate-to-wire effort while under pressure the entire time. He comes back in only 19 days off that huge effort, but he does have a good work in the interim. So Brilliant dueled early and cleared off to win as a heavily bet favorite in his debut lat month at Santa Anita. He has had four strong works, though why he had one work at Hollywood, then shipped back to SA to work is a bit odd.

The horses sitting in the second flight, about 2-4 lengths back, figure to be Sheer Talent and Mucho Besos. Sheer Talent looks to bounce back after a subpar effort up at Golden Gate. His trainer Dan Hendricks brings him back off on short rest for the race and looks to be the one to "inherit" the lead if/when the speed backs up. Mucho Besos will try to jump off from an maiden claiming win to a graded stakes win. This looks like it might be too much of a step up, though he could get a slice if he gets the trip and one of the closers doesn't fire.

Galex, Empire Way and Brother Francis  are the last three in the field. Galex ran 2nd in the Jack Goodman Stakes (beating Sweet Swap in the process) by laying back and making one run. While he did pass the other 4 horses in the field, he lost ground on the winner in the last 8th. He did win his debut gate-to-wire, but he figures to sit off the pace in here. He does have several good stamina building works here. Empire Way won his maiden stylishly 11 days ago rolling by the field from the back. This full brother to multiple grade 1 winner Royal Delta appears to be in this race as more of a building block for the Hollywood Futurity according to his trainer's comments. His trainer also has a less-than-stellar record coming back on short rest (less than 14 days) with a two year old. Brother Francis started slow in his debut but closed quickly to just miss behind Hodge. He should improve with the extra distance, and does have two good works since, but he has never been over a synthetic surface either. He could show more positional speed with a clean break. "Brother" does have history working against him, as in the last twenty years no horse has broken his maiden in this race.

This is a tough race because I can see any number of these winning, but the tepid pick is Sheer Talent to pull an upset. It looks like there is enough speed for the front-runners to be softened up and allow him to "inherit" the lead in the stretch and hold off the closers.

Good luck and happy Thanksgiving everybody!