Drought Report 2012 - San Felipe Stakes

The San Felipe Stakes is the last local prep for the Santa Anita Derby. This race will most likely provide several runners for next month's race. This race has produced several Grade 1 winners in its past. It has been 11 years since it produced back-to-back Kentucky Derby winners in Point Given and Fusaichi Pegasus. This year's field is an even matched group of ten runners. To see full analysis of the race, go on over to the Thorofan's Handicapper's Corner, where I wrote about the race for them. Short version: Midnight Transfer earns the same trip I'll Have Another had in the Lewis, wins going away, with the Harrington-trained duo & Rousing Sermon collecting the minor awards.

In other news:

• Out of Bounds missed this race and is off the trail after suffering an injury in his last work before the race. He had successful surgery and will be back for a 2013 campaign.
• Fed Biz also missed this race because of a minor issue. He is already back on track galloping, and will be pointed to either the Santa Anita Derby.
• Delta Jackpot winner Sabercat will make his first start of the year in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park, where he could be joined by several others from out here, including at least one Baffert trainee (either Secret Circle or Castaway).
• Last year's San Felipe winner Premier Pegasus is still on the mend after a setback from his previous injury, We wish him a speedy recovery.

Good luck this weekend folks.

Drought Report 2012 - 1/20

This week's Drought Report will be a brief one, as there was no stakes action last weekend. This weekend is the ungraded $75k San Pedro Stakes, which should produce a starter or two for San Vicente Stakes next month. First, a recap of the two races mentioned in last week's report, then a few notable workouts, with a brief preview of the San Pedro Stakes to wrap up the report.

• Sky Kingdom won a first level allowance race on 1/12 that turned into a glorified paid workout when the four horse field (already reduced from five due to a scratch) turned into three when the outclassed runner was eased early on. Sky Kingdom took advantage of his lesser competition to stalk the pace, range up to the outside and win geared down without really being asked. If nothing else, he had another trip out on the track to gain some more experience. It did not prove that he can handle a solid pace routing, as some are proclaiming. 
• Brother Francis scratched out of a maiden special weight on 1/14 with a slight illness, but his trainer James Cassidy said it was only a minor issue and that he should be back on track soon.
• Liaison, Grade 1 CashCall Futurity winner, leads off the Santa Anita workers with a bullet six furlong work in 1:11 on 1/19
• Rousing Sermon worked six furlongs in 1:14.80 on 1/17
• Chips All In, Eddie Logan Stakes winner, worked five furlongs in 1:03.60 on 1/16
• Groovin' Solo , half-bro to GSWs Premier Pegasus & Street Hero, worked 5 furlongs in 59.4 on 1/17.
• Out of Bounds, Grade 3 Sham Stakes winner, worked at Hollywood Park in first spin since the race, going three furlongs in 37.20
• Creative Cause, Grade 1 Norfolk winner, worked six furlongs in 1:14 at Hollywood Park on 1/20

The San Pedro Stakes is a 6 1/2 furlong race on the dirt that will be run this Sunday. It brings together a mixed bag of 6. Drill looks to right the ship on the cutback after back-to-back dismal efforts routing. Midnight Transfer comes in off a fast maiden breaking score on opening day, while Got Even blitz the field in the Cal Breeders' Champion Stakes last out. Passing Game looks to turn the tide on Got Even after having no chance on the speed-favoring track on opening day. Let's Get Crackin comes in from out of town while continuing his musical chair trainer changes. Coach Sickie returns after failing to fire up north. This will be an interesting race, as no one knows exactly how Drill will run. At least while sprinting, Drill has not shown the need for the lead, so if runs back to any of his sprint wins, he should win. Another big question to figure out is how will the three horses who ran on opening day come out of that race? Midnight Transfer would seem to figure things out, but could it be that he just found a soft maiden group instead? The winner will probably be pointed to a start in the San Vicente Stakes, or possibly a race out of town like the Southwest S. at Oaklawn.

 Good luck this weekend folks!

Drought Report 2/9 - Robert B Lewis Stakes / El Camino Real Derby

This weekend brings two graded stakes that will go a long way in determining who will be "The Drought Breaker". At "The Great Race Place", 8 sophomores are entered in the Grade 2 Robert B Lewis worth $250k going a 1m & 1/8th. Up at Golden Gate Fields, 7 are entered the $200k Grade 3 El Camino Real Derby, also going a 1m & 1/8th. Also the first open first-level allowance on the dirt for the 3yos of the meet will be run on Friday, bringing together two of the more stylish maiden winners at the meet, Da Ruler and the filly Rumor.

Both the Robert B. Lewis and the El Camino Real have shared entrants in Comma to The Top and Anthony's Cross. Comma To The Top's connections said that they are leaning towards the El Camino Real Derby, and his work on Sunday (2/6) going a bullet 5 furlongs in 59.4 at Hollywood Park, the best of 34 works at the distance. Anthony's Cross, who ran third in the Sham, worked smartly since the race, finishing up his preparations on Sunday with a 5 furlong work going 59.60, (2nd best on the day) also at Hollywood Park. Comma To The Top's presence will have a larger effect on the El Camino Real, where he would be a heavy favorite to win and the big star of the race.

The Grade 3 El Camino Real Derby is one of the marquee races of the Golden Gate Fields meet, and it appears that one of the west coast's biggest three year old in Comma To The Top. As mentioned earlier, his connections have chosen this race as his 2011 debut. This will be the farthest he has ever raced in his career, and his lack of recency could leave him vulnerable. Comma To The Top earned the respect by winning the Real Quiet, G3 Generous and G1 Hollywood Futurity during the Hollywood Park autumn meet. This blog is intrigued by Silver Medallion. This Steve Asmussen-trained son of Badge of Silver won the Eddie Logan Stakes on New Year's Eve at Santa Anita going a mile on the grass. This blog speculated that he might switch to the main after the win, and it appears that he has landed in a good spot. He has a recency edge over the favorite, should have no problem with the distance, and the workout pattern is sharp. His last work was an easy 4 furlongs in 49.40 at Santa Anita on Monday, earning the rare "B" or "Breezing" designation for the work. This means that the horse was under no urging whatsoever during the work (this fact courtesy of the Illman blog). The "B" is rarely given out in SoCal, and it should be noted that Silver Medallion's last work before the Eddie Logan also received a "B". Also running is Positive Response, who has won the two local preps for this race, the Gold Rush Stakes and the California Derby.

Grade 2 Robert B. Lewis Stakes will have a good-looking three year old, even if Comma To The Top decides to head north, in Tapizar. This son of Tapit (right) won the Grade 3 Sham Stakes last month in gate-to-wire fashion, blowing the field off their feet. In the process, he ran more than a second faster than Indian Firewater did in the Grade 2 San Fernando Stakes for four year olds later on the card. This Asmussen charge looks to assert himself once again a strong contender for the Santa Anita Derby with a win. His last work was an easy four furlongs in 49 flat on Monday at Santa Anita, and like his stablemate, he earned a "B" designation. It would not be a derby prep race in Southern California without a Bob Baffert trainee, and he is represented by Wegner. This son of Dynaformer also plies his trade on the front end, as does the multiple graded-stakes placed Riveting Reason. Also in the field is Thirtyfirststreet, who will stretch out for the first time in the race off his win the CA Breeders' Champions Stakes on opening day.

News and Notes

• On Tuesday 2/8, San Pedro Stakes winner Indian Winter worked a bullet 6 furlongs in 1:13 (best of 10 workers) at Santa Anita in preparation for next start, which maybe the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes next Saturday (2/19).
• Jaycito worked on Monday 2/7 5 furlongs in 59.20 at Santa Anita, the 4th best work of 48.
• Astrology worked for the first time since arriving in Southern California for Steve Asmussen on Saturday 2/5. His first spin a tepid 4 furlongs in 52 seconds. He could be pointed to the San Felipe as well
• Premier Pegasus worked 5 furlongs in 1:01.60 at Santa Anita on Friday 2/4. He also could be pointed to the San Felipe.
• The Factor had his first official work (though he had been galloping long for a few weeks) since his scintillating win on opening day. He went 4 furlongs in an easy 48.2 at Hollywood Park on Tuesday (2/8)
• Lastly, the first open allowance on the dirt for either sex of the meet is set for Friday. It matches up the Baffert trainee Da Ruler (below left) and the Richard Mandella filly Rumor (below right). Rumor is in this race as a means to an end, since all attempts at a N1X for fillies only has failed to fill several times. Both have high ceilings when it comes to their futures, and let's hope that the race proves to be a good one for all parties involved.

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The stakes action begins in earnest this weekend, and the picture could become clearer after this weekend's stakes. A future star hopes to solidify his position on top, while the one on top attempts to maintain his position there. Should be some good action all weekend. Good luck everybody!

Drought Report - 2/2

As the calendar turns another page to the month of February, the day moves ever closer to determining who will be the "Drought Breaker". We will first talk about an impressive maiden winner in his debut that happened on Saturday, then we will provide some workouts and other notes.

On Saturday, race 2 at the Great Race Place, 6 three year olds lined up to go 6 furlongs. The two horses taking most of the wagering action was #1 Tokubetsu and #2 Runflatout. These two broke well, went right to the lead, with Tokubetsu getting a slight advantage. After a swift quarter mile, these two had already separated themselves from the rest of the field by a length and a half. After a half mile, these two were separated by a half length, and separated from the rest of the field by two and half lengths. Turning for home, they widen on the rest of the field, with Runflatout taking an advantage. By the time they hit the wire, Runflatout had won by 2 & 1/2 lengths over Tokubetsu, with another 8 & 1/2 lengths to the rest of the field. He covered the 6 furlongs in a swift 1:07.70. He is a son of Flatter, and was vying for favoritism for most of the betting. He appears to have a lot of talent, but is it too little, too late?

News and Notes

• This blog's choice to end the drought, the undefeated Premier Pegasus, finally put in a work since his victory in the Hollywood Prevue on Friday (1/28), working 4f in 47.20. No clue on what his first prep will be, but maybe the San Felipe S. on March 12th.
• Comma To The Top worked 7 furlongs on 1:24.60 at Hollywood Park on Monday (1/31) in preparation for the Robert B. Lewis S on February 12th.
• San Pedro Stakes winner Indian Winter worked 5 furlongs on Tuesday (2/1) at Santa Anita in 5 furlongs in 1:00.20, the 5th best of 30 works
• Jaycito worked the same morning, going 7 furlongs in 1:25.20. 
• The Factor has been galloping steadily towards his next start, which will be the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes on February 20th going 7 furlongs.
• On Thursday (2/3), Houston Harbor, who finished second to The Factor on opening day, comes back in a maiden special weight race going 1m & 1/16th in the 6th race. He drew the outside post #10 in the field.

Another week in the books, another week closer to finding out who will be the "Drought Breaker". Good luck folks.

Drought Report - 1/26

This week's Drought Report will be a little shorter than normal due to a lack of any races that could have a possible impact on the drought this week at Santa Anita. Instead, we go back two weeks to catch up on the California Derby at Golden Gate Fields, since it could possibly produce a starter for the Santa Anita Derby.

Golden Gate Fields is a track in Albany, CA, which is in the Bay Area. The California Derby is the local prep at Golden Gate Fields for the Grade 3 El Camino Real Derby. The 2011 edition of the California Derby featured a full field of 12. The favorite was Positive Response. This son of Pomeroy had won the previous stake at Golden Gate, the Gold Rush S. Many of the same horses who ran in that race came back to face him in the California Derby, but it proved to be a futile idea, as Positive Response took the lead going into the turn and drew away to win by 2 & 3/4 lengths in the end under jockey Julien Couton. This former maiden claimer (he broke his maiden for $50k @ Woodbine) is now a two-time stakes winner. What impact will he have on ending The Drought? This blog would venture little, as his pedigree does not really lends itself to go much further than he has already run.

News and Notes

• On Sunday (1/25), Hollywood Futurity winner Comma To The Top worked 6 furlongs in a swift 1:10.40 at Hollywood Park in preparation for a start in the aforementioned El Camino Real Derby on Feburary 12th going 9 furlongs, his first start in 2011.
• Sham Stakes winner Tapizar had his first work back on Monday (1/24) since his victory, going an easy 4 furlongs in 50.40 at Santa Anita Park.
• Also on 1/24, Baffert trainee Awesome Patriot worked 5 furlongs in 1:01:60 and Del Mar Futurity winner J P's Gusto worked 7 furlongs in 1:25.40. Both are aiming for the Grade 2 Robert B Lewis Stakes on Feburary 12th going a mile and eighth.
• On Wednesday (1/26) San Pedro winner Indian Winter worked a strong 4 furlongs in 48.40 seconds in his first work since the race. Also working was Sham runner-up Clubhouse Ride, who popped a swift 58.80 seconds for 5 furlongs, the 3rd best work at the distance.
  

Next week, this blog will try to bring some sort of order (by way of rankings) to the potential drought-breaking contenders. Until then, good luck everybody.

Drought Report - First Steps on the Trail

Last weekend, the search for the "Drought Breaker" began in earnest, with two stakes races at The Great Race Place. On Saturday, a field of five ran in the Grade 3 Sham Stakes, while on Monday, 7 sophomores hooked up in the San Pedro Stakes. In between, there was a sterling maiden breaking performance put in on Sunday by a horse who had some buzz. Also, several possible contenders continued to work towards their next start, and one made his first appearance in the afternoon (albeit while schooling).

Saturday was the beginning of the Derby trail out at Santa Anita, with the running of the $100,000 Grade 3 Sham Stakes. 5 horses lined up, with the heavy favorite being Tapizar (right). This son of Tapit went to front end and never looked back, winning in gate-to-wire fashion. He repulsed a brief challenge from multiple graded stakes-placed Clubhouse Ride turning for home, and won in a solid 1:40:38, which was faster than either of the two Grade 2 stakes held for older horses that weekend by over a second. He should have no problem with the additional distance as time goes along. His trainer Steve Asmussen said that he will remain in Santa Anita for his next start, in either the Grade 2 $250k Robert B Lewis S. on Feburary 12th going 1m & 1/8, or the Grade 2 $250k San Felipe S. on March 12th going 1m & 1/16th, the same distance as the Sham.

On Sunday, while no stakes races happened, there was a maiden special weight race that had some buzz preceding it around the track. The 4th marked the debut of two horses with some hype, the Steve Asmussen trained Albergatti, and the Bob Baffert trained Da Ruler (right). Da Ruler had a large quantity of buzz surrounding him, and he was bet accordingly, down to 1.20-1 favorite. This son of multiple graded stakes & debut winner Roman Ruler out of stakes and debut winner Dirty Diana did not disappoint, as he went right to the lead from his rail draw, repulsed an attack by Albergatti at the 1/16th pole, then kept his opponent at bay for the final strides. He won in a strong time of 1:14:52, or almost .8 faster than the San Pedro Stakes did the nest day. Who knows what the future holds for Da Ruler, but him and the runner-up seem like they could have a bright one ahead.

Monday brought us the $103,100 San Pedro S. at 6 1/2 furlongs. The betting public had a hard time sorting out the field, eventually settling on Arcadian, making him the lukewarm 3-1 favorite. Both Sinai and City Cool also were bet, being the co-2nd choices at 3.40-1. City Cool went right to lead, with Arcadian sitting just off early on. Arcadian could not live up to his favorite's role however, and faded back to 6th. City Cool held the lead until the final few strides, when Indian Winter (right) came from off the pace to pull the upset as the longest shot on the board at 10-1. This son of Indian Charlie was coming off a 4 1/2 month layoff, finishing a distant third in the G1 Del Mar Futurity. He should be fine with some additional distance, especially being out of a Dixieland Band mare, and his style should be a benefit as the races get longer.

Drought Notes

• Blog favorite Premier Pegasus has still not worked since his win in the Grade 3 Hollywood Prevue on 11/20/2010. If he does not begin to resume working out soon, it will be too late for him to have an impact on "The Drought".
• Grade 3 Iroquois winner and Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club runner-up Astrology (right) made an appearance in the Santa Anita paddock on Monday, schooling during the card. He received a personal escort back to the barn from his trainer Steve Asmussen, and looks to be near a return to work tab any day now.
• Grade 1 Norfolk winner Jaycito has his second work back after his Breeders' Cup Juvenile disaster, where he bolted during the race and lost all chance of winning. He worked 4 furlongs in a slow 49:4 for new trainer Bob Baffert, who took over after the Juvenile.

So the stakes action has begun at Santa Anita, and the horses have begun to sort themselves out into contenders and pretenders. Tapizar struck first blood, Indian Winter reaffirmed the strength of the Del Mar Futurity, and Da Ruler proved that the hype was at least partially warranted. Can any of these continue on and be "The Drought Breaker"? We soon shall see.

Drought Report - First Scan of the Radar

The first 2+ weeks of the Santa Anita meet have past, and we have witnessed several strong performances from the newly minted three year olds. This post is the first of what will be a weekly series tracking the horses that look to break "The Drought". "The Drought" is what this blog is calling the 22-year gap since the last winner of the Santa Anita Derby went on to win the Kentucky Derby. This series will take a look at any three year-old races (whether maiden, allowance or stakes) that occur during the meet that show any promise of having a potential "Drought Breaker". It will also list some of the works of these horses. Since this is the initial post, it will be longer than normal, as there are 8 races to recap, plus two to preview. The races will be reviewed in chronological order, starting with opening day.

This review start off with the 3yo probably most well known, The Factor (pictured). He won the first maiden special weight of the meet in sizzling fashion, setting a track record for 6 furlongs in his 2nd lifetime start. He went to he front and just kept going in a gate-to-wire win. He has come back to work a swift 5 furlongs on 1/9 for trainer Bob Baffert, and is nominated for Monday's San Pedro Stakes. This blog wonders if he can get the 1m & 1/8, much less 1m &1/4. The runner-up Houston Harbor has also come back to work, with two steady spins at 4f & 5f. This Steve Asmussen trainee will look to break his maiden next time out, maybe at a route of ground.

The race after, Cal-breds squared off in the California Breeders Champions Stakes. Thirtyfirststreet rallied from well off the pace to win. Will his sire was a multiple GSW on the turf, he seemed to handle the turf just fine. His pedigree suggests that he should have no problem as the distances increase, as both sides of his pedigree say "route". While the time was not super-fast, it was a solid race. 31st St. has come back to work three furlongs, and may be pointed to the Robert B. Lewis going 1m & 1/16th on February 12th.

The following day had the card lead off with a maiden special weight going a mile, in a race that was scheduled for the turf but run on the main track. Uncle Sam sat just off the speed, made his move turning for home and won in workmanlike manner. He won it in an alright time, but not sure what he beat in that race. This Baffert trainee came back to work on Sunday an easy 5 furlongs, and looks to build off his debut win in his next start, which is the Grade 3 Sham Stakes this Saturday.

Wednesday brought an allowance race that scratched down to a compact field of three. Awesome Patriot ran to the lead, with G3-placed Riveting Reason sitting right off his flank. RR engaged AP and dueled with him for a good while, but AP prevailed in the end. There is not much you can glean from this race, other than maybe Riveting Reason is better on the lead. Awesome Patriot by (who else) Bob Baffert, and came back to work on the 9th (as most of Baffert's charges did), and may end up being the odd man out in the barn. This blog thinks AP is destined for OP for his next race.

New Year's Eve brought us the Eddie Logan Stakes going mile on the grass. The winner was Silver Medallion. This son of Badge of Silver rallied from just off the pace. While the win was on turf, he should be just fine on the dirt. He "worked" for Asmussen on the 9th (a very busy day), but it was the slowest of the day. since it was only 9 days after the race, the time was irrelevant, as it was clearly just a leg stretcher.

We now skip ahead to this last weekend, where two maiden special weight bookend the early pick 3. In the 1st race, Hollywood Heat sat off a speedball and perfect-tripped his way to an easy win under a handride going 5 & 1/2 furlongs. It was only a field of 5, and did take 6 starts for him to break his maiden, but it was in a good time. Two races later, a field of 8 runners went a mile. The gate-to-wire winner was Wegner, trained by (guess who?) Bob Baffert. Wegner had to work for the victory, while under some urging. Like all of Baffert's winners listed here, he was ridden by Rafael Bejarano. Unlike the others, Wegner was a fat 8-1 on the board in winning his fourth lifetime start. Being by Dynaformer out of a Seeking the Gold mare, he should have zero issues with the distance.

Sunday brought a 5 horse field going 7 furlongs. First time starter Kilograeme hugged the rail and wore down the heavy favorite right before the wire. This son of Graeme Hall made his debut a winning one. He should have no problems with the distance, but for him to be the "Drought Breaker", he would have to be the first horse since 1881 to win the derby while not running at two.


Now that the (extended) recap is over, on to the preview of this weekend's first derby preps of the meet, The Grade 3 Sham Stakes and the San Pedro Stakes. The Sham will be run at a mile and 1/16th. It drew a field of five. Uncle Sam (who we mentioned earlier) is Baffert's lone entrant, and breaks from post 2. Tapizar figures to be the favorite off of his huge maiden win last out at Churchill Downs going a mile & 1/16th. This Asmussen trainee won by 10 1/2 lengths, and acquires the services of top rider Garrett Gomez. On Monday, the San Pedro Stakes will be run. Baffert nominated 5 of the 14 nominees, including Awesome Patriot and The Factor, along with Sinai (pictured), who was a swift debut winner at Hollywood Park last month from the rail at this distance. The interesting horse (if he runs) is Arcadian. This son of Songandaprayer blitzed the field in the Lost in the Fog Stakes at Turf Paradise, and threw a bullet 6f work in the interim.

The search is on for the horse. The one horse who will find his way to the winner circle come April 9th. That horse will carry the hopes of ended the drought. Who will be... The Drought Breaker?