Breeders' Cup Saturday comes bringing high intrigue, high drama and a high bar to top Friday's wild outcomes. After a solid 4-for-10 yesterday, can this blog keep it up? Let's get right into the action with the first race on the card.
The first race is a entry-level allowance race for females going a one-turn mile. Two horses catch the eye here. Jump Up will be the probable favorite based off a fast maiden win in her debut at Keeneland. She has worked well here at Churchill and her pedigree states that dirt will not be a problem. The other one that catches the eye is Dreamingly. While she has never been on dirt, it doesn't look like it will be a problem. These two look like they will appreciate the one-turn and will be on or near the lead.
Pick: #8 Jump Up - Others to consider: #5 Dreamingly
Confidence Rating: 8.5; 9 that one of two will win
The second is the $65k Dream Supreme Stakes. There is a very vulnerable morning line favorite.in Dancinginherdreams. She has not shown much improvement from her two year old form (which included a win here) and looks to be beatable. Grandacious has a chance to gate to wire, but can pass if needed; Salty Strike is 3-for-4 over the Churchill Downs track; Splendor Town has shown occasionally ability that could win this at a big number.
Pick: #8 Salty Strike - Others to consider: #1 Grandacious, #9 Splendor Town
Confidence Rating: 8.5; 9.6 that one of the three will win, 10 that Dancinginherdreams will not win.
BC Marathon is the first big race of the day. This blog is just taking a stab in this race, as it has no real opinion. Birdrun looks like he might be able to go gate-to-wire here in this 14 furlong race.
Pick: #1 Birdrun
Confidence Rating: 1, as the scale does not go any lower.
Next up is the Juvenile Turf. Another tough race where contention runs deep. The very tepid selection is Wrote. This son of multiple BC Turf winner High Chapparal has won two of four, with the two wins coming on courses with turns (albeit right-handed). The others this blog would use in multi-race exotics are the undefeated on turf Finale, Bourbon runner-up Coalport and another Euro in Caspar Netscher.
Pick: #5 Wrote - Others to consider: #13 Finale, #6 Coalport, #7 Caspar Netscher.
Confidence Rating: 3.3
The Sprint is another tough race, though this blog is going to take a stand. The pick is Force Freeze. He blew away the competition in first start in the U.S back in July. He valiantly tried to get to fellow runner Giant Ryan last time out when he just could not get there while running against a speed-favoring track at Belmont. He has two nice works and looks to have first jump on the closers.
Pick: #6 Force Freeze
Confidence Rating: 6.7
The Turf Sprint starts the $3m Ultra Pick 6 with a well-matched full field of 14. The pick is Regally Ready, as he has experience over the course, a solid post, can be on the lead but does not need it. If one wants to look past him, it becomes a wide open affair with many, many options.
Pick: #8 Regally Ready
Confidence Rating: 5.5 (Turf sprints at Churchill Downs is not one of my strengths)
The BC Dirt Mile is a race that has a short history but all of its winners have one thing in common: They all ran their last race at nine furlong. The only member of the field to do that was Tres Borrachos. But his form is very suspect and he will be used only because of the above angle. The pick is Irrefutable. Coming off a good second in the Ancient Title, the "other Baffert" looks to finally get his chance at this extended sprint. With a win over the track earlier in the year, he looks primed for a big effort. The other horse being used is Trappe Shot. The whole year this son of Tapit has been running at six furlongs, and each time this blog played against him. Now he finally stretches out to a distance that allows him to use his track-and-attack skills to better use, he can get the jump on likely favorite Caleb's Posse.
Pick: #6 Irrefutable - Others to consider: #9 Trappe Shot, #4 Tres Borrachos
Confidence Rating: 6.9; 9 that one of these three is the winner.
This blog's thoughts on the Breeders' Cup Turf can summed up with one sentence: "Any European-based horse that gets beat by an American based horse isn't allowed back on the plane to Europe."
Pick: #1 St. Nicholas Abbey (because he is the 1st Euro they will load into the gate) - Others to consider: The other four Euros: #2 Sarafina, #6 Await The Dawn, #7 Sea Moon, #9 Midday
Confidence Rating: 4; 10 that a Euro will win.
The Juvenile is another Classic East-West match-up as Champagne winner Union Rags faces off vs. Norfolk winner Creative Cause. This blog is going to go out on a limb and not pick either or those or Norfolk runner-up and Del Mar Futurity winner Drill. Instead the pick is Champagne runner-up Alpha. Making his first start around two turns is a big key for a horse his trainer said is still learning the game. Along with Dullahan, this is another spread race.
Pick: #9 Alpha - Others to consider: #7 Creative Cause, #2 Dullahan, #4 Drill, #10 Union Rags
Confidence rating: 4, 9.5 that the winner is one of those five listed.
The race that the world cannot wait to see is the Mile, as Goldikova looks to win an unprecedented 4th straight Breeders' Cup Mile. Some say she has lost a step, some doubt whether she can win this, but to play against her is a dangerous proposition. However, this blog will have a different horse as its top pick while using the mare in everything. If she has traffic troubles and just can't find her way to the winner circles, Jeranimo could be the one to take advantage. He ran a monster race in the Oak Tree Mile and is coming blazing. He will be sitting just off of Sidney's Candy, and when that one loses the lead in the stretch, he will have first jump on the come-from-behind horses. At a big price, he is worth a flyer.
Pick: #7 Jeranimo - Others to consider: #1 Goldikova
Confidence rating: 4; 9 that if he doesn't pull the upset, she completes the 4-peat.
So here we are at the main event, the Classic. This blog makes no apologies for being a huge fan of Flat Out. Since the beginning, way back before this blog was even a possibility, way back in late 2008, Flat Out caught the attention of this writer. He was at one point the choice for the Derby. Thought to be another casualty of the Derby trail after he was hurt, he made his comeback off a 20 month layoff with a win in December. After a false start over the winter, he returned with a 2nd, then a flop in the Stephen Foster while stuck on a dying rail. Bouncing back with good performance after good performance, he won his last start to give his trainer the long sought after first Grade 1 win. Now it is his time to reward his connections with a win in the biggest race of the year. The only horses that can stand in the way of this goal is the globe-trotting So You Think and the stubborn front-runner Game On Dude. No one else scares this blog. Not Uncle Mo (too far, poor preparation), not Havre De Grace (too far), not To Honor and Serve (cannot pass, will not get the lead).
Pick: #2 Flat Out
Confidence Rating: 7.8 (So You Think wins if he takes to dirt.)
There you go, all...Wait, there's another race after the Classic? Why? "Traffic Considerations"? Alright. (looks over the PPs, cracks a big smile)
May Day Rose caps off a possible huge day for Bob Baffert by going gate-to-wire in what race caller and the current voice of the Breeders' Cup Trevor Denman " a stylish performance".
Pick: #9 May Day Rose
Confidence rating: 9.6
Good luck folks. Go Flat Out!
Showing posts with label Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Show all posts
Saturday, November 5, 2011
Saturday, November 6, 2010
Breeders' Cup Saturday
The day is here. Day 2 of the Breeders' Cup brings the big show to town, with Zenyatta attempting to end her career a perfect 20-for-20. Goldikova attempts to become the first horse ever to win the same race three times, attempting the three-peat in the Mile. With a flurry of competitive fields, this day will have plenty of chances for a great payoff. Let's dive right in with the first Breeders' Cup race, the Juvenile Turf.
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf - Grade 2 - 1 Mile - (turf)
The first BC race of the day brings together a evenly match field of thirteen. This blog does not have a great feel for this race at all. The very lukewarm selection is #9 Soldat. Last time out, he finished second as the favorite in the Grade 3 Pilgrim Stakes over a yielding Belmont turf course. Two good works in the interim and the feeling that he will improve with the return to a complete two turns. Some large prices on the morning line that catch the eye are #11 Rough Sailing and #12 Humble and Hungry. Rough Sailing returns to the turf after a failed attempt routing on the Poly in the Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland. The cut-back and the return ti turf interests this blog, along with the two steady works. With a pedigree that is very strong for the grass, he may sneak into the exotics. Humble and Hungry is interesting because his pedigree says two turns are not a problem and the presence of jockey Olivier Peslier, the rider of Goldikova, is a bit of surprise, since H&H is making his first start against winners. The best of the Euros appears to be #5 Master of Hounds. He has experience around a turn, and should be fine at the distance.
Selections:
Soldat
Master of Hounds
Rough Sailing / Humble and Hungry (trifecta bombs)
Breeders' Cup Sprint - Grade 1 - 6 Furlongs
This field of 12 comes in without a clear favorite, as the early and dominant leader Majesticperfection was lost to injury in September. This group has a wide variety of running styles.for everyone to have their favorite style represented. The 3-1 morning line favorite is #2 Girolamo. This son of A.P. Indy, who won the Grade 1 Vosburgh last out, is trying to give his sire a win at the shortest dirt race (6 furlongs) after winning the longest race, the Marathon (1m & 3/4) yesterday. He comes in third off the layoff and has worked well in the interim, but he will bet tossed from the win spot because he violates the "Three Furlong Rule", a cardinal sin for this blog. The choice is #7 Kinsale King. This son of Yankee Victor runs on the dirt for the first time, but did have a workout over it at the BIG Fresno Fair a few weeks back. Earlier this year, he won the Palos Verdes Handicap at Santa Anita, which he parlayed into a win in the Group 1 Dubai Golden Shaheen. He went abroad to the UK for two prestigious grass races. Off since July, he comes in fresh and may float higher than his 8-1 morning line. #1 Big Drama is an ultra-game horse has not run since finishing second to a contender in the BC Dirt Mile Here Comes Ben. The cutback to 6 furlongs can only do good and the steady work pattern adds to the appeal. #5 Smiling Tiger has earned this blog's respect by being one of the few three year olds in the country to beat older, doing so twice in his last three starts. He also is making his first start on dirt, and popped a bullet work here last week. This blog is taking a stand against #3 Wise Dan, who seems to have picked up some "steam" this week, but is making only his 5th career start.
Selections:
Kinsale King
Big Drama
Smiling Tiger /Riley Tucker
Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint - Grade 2 - 5 furlongs - (turf)
This race was quite literally impossible to figure out for this blog. The horse who we had hoped to pin our hopes on, #1 Chamberlain Bridge, popped an abscess on his foot last week and missed his last work. That does not bode well for him in this race, and he no longer the pick. Instead of offering analysis, this blog will just point out a longshot in #13 Tropic Storm. The reason we point out this horse is that the cutback in distance and the abundance of speed in the field lead this blog to believe that if he can get over into a decent spot down the backstretch, he may be able to hang on for a share. The "if you put a gun to my head" selection is #9 Rose Catherine, because of her undefeated record at the distance.
Live Horses: (not enough conviction to make them selections)
Rose Catherine, Tropic Storm, Silver Timber, Unzip Me, Bridgetown
Breeders' Cup Juvenile - Grade 1 - 1m & 1/16th
This race has the two big names from the east coast who have gathered all the headlines, #2 Boys at Tosconova and #7 Uncle Mo. These two have both put in breathtaking efforts in the most recent starts and deserve to be the first two choices in the betting. Both stretch out to two turns for the first time today, but neither should have a problem with the distance. Uncle Mo is a pure speedball, and seeing how he reacts to pace pressure is the main question with him. 'Boys' must overcome a two month layoff, but has actually passed a horse, a rare thing in this field. These two will hopefully cause the price on #10 Jaycito to climb higher than the 8-1 morning line. This son of Victory Gallop has already won going two turns (in the Norfolk), but must overcome the 1 for 18 record on the board for horses coming out of the Norfolk running in the BC Juvenile when it is held at Churchill Downs. These three are the only ones this blog feels can win.
Selections:
Jaycito
Uncle Mo
Boys at Tosconova
Breeders' Cup Mile - Grade 1 - One Mile - (turf)
The first of the two horses attempting to win their third Breeders' Cup race is the deserving favorite and the wonderful mare #10 Goldikova. She comes in fine fashion, winning the Grade 1 Prix de la Foret against males at Longchamp. She is ultra game and there is no rela chink in her armor, Unless something unforeseen happens, she looks like a very strong candidate to make history. This blog;s crazy longshot is #8 Get Stormy. If for some reason the mare does not fire, Get Stormy looks to get a perfect trip behind speedball #9 Sidney's Candy. Whether he is good enough is completely other story, but at a healthy number, he is worth a shot.
Selections:
Goldikova
Paco Boy (who has been chasing Goldi all summer)
Get Stormy
Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile - Grade 1 - one mile
This race took a hit when probable post time favorite #8 Crown of Thorns went down with an injury on Friday. Favoritism will either fall to #5 Here Comes Ben or #6 Gayego. This blog is going to take a chance with the horse just to their outside, #7 Thiskyhasnolimit. "This" has been running effectively at two turns, but has always stuck this blog as a one-turn miler. The only other time h did this, he won the Grade 3 Iroquois on this very track. He has worked nicely in the interim and will probably go off at or near the 10-1 morning line. The morning line favorite #10 Morning Line is a horrible favorite, with only a single Grade 2 to his name. He appears to be a two-turn horse who cannot pass, and will be up against it.
Selections:
Thiskyhasnolimit
Gayego
Here Comes Ben
Breeders' Cup Turf - Grade 1 - 1m & 1/2 (turf)
The big question surround this relatively compact field of 8 is whether or not 2010 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe winner #6 Workforce will run or not. To this blog, it does not matter, as the selection either way is #7 Behkabad. He has run will over a surface with less give in it than hat the connections of Workforce are looking for and was well-bet in the Arc, losing by only 4 lengths with a spot of trouble. The #1 Champ Pegasus is interesting because he is the only on in the field who no one knows how truly good he is, since this is first trip outside of California. He should be on or near the lead, and this may give him a fighting chance with the lack of early speed signed on.
Selections:
Bekhabad
Workforce
Champ Pegasus
That leaves the Classic. But if you are a follower of this blog, you know exactly who is the selection, and who the one to fear is. (Hint, it's a she). But forhow I explain it, you will have to find out in my next post, which will be put up later this BC Saturday Morning. Good luck everybody!
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf - Grade 2 - 1 Mile - (turf)
The first BC race of the day brings together a evenly match field of thirteen. This blog does not have a great feel for this race at all. The very lukewarm selection is #9 Soldat. Last time out, he finished second as the favorite in the Grade 3 Pilgrim Stakes over a yielding Belmont turf course. Two good works in the interim and the feeling that he will improve with the return to a complete two turns. Some large prices on the morning line that catch the eye are #11 Rough Sailing and #12 Humble and Hungry. Rough Sailing returns to the turf after a failed attempt routing on the Poly in the Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland. The cut-back and the return ti turf interests this blog, along with the two steady works. With a pedigree that is very strong for the grass, he may sneak into the exotics. Humble and Hungry is interesting because his pedigree says two turns are not a problem and the presence of jockey Olivier Peslier, the rider of Goldikova, is a bit of surprise, since H&H is making his first start against winners. The best of the Euros appears to be #5 Master of Hounds. He has experience around a turn, and should be fine at the distance.
Selections:
Soldat
Master of Hounds
Rough Sailing / Humble and Hungry (trifecta bombs)
Breeders' Cup Sprint - Grade 1 - 6 Furlongs
This field of 12 comes in without a clear favorite, as the early and dominant leader Majesticperfection was lost to injury in September. This group has a wide variety of running styles.for everyone to have their favorite style represented. The 3-1 morning line favorite is #2 Girolamo. This son of A.P. Indy, who won the Grade 1 Vosburgh last out, is trying to give his sire a win at the shortest dirt race (6 furlongs) after winning the longest race, the Marathon (1m & 3/4) yesterday. He comes in third off the layoff and has worked well in the interim, but he will bet tossed from the win spot because he violates the "Three Furlong Rule", a cardinal sin for this blog. The choice is #7 Kinsale King. This son of Yankee Victor runs on the dirt for the first time, but did have a workout over it at the BIG Fresno Fair a few weeks back. Earlier this year, he won the Palos Verdes Handicap at Santa Anita, which he parlayed into a win in the Group 1 Dubai Golden Shaheen. He went abroad to the UK for two prestigious grass races. Off since July, he comes in fresh and may float higher than his 8-1 morning line. #1 Big Drama is an ultra-game horse has not run since finishing second to a contender in the BC Dirt Mile Here Comes Ben. The cutback to 6 furlongs can only do good and the steady work pattern adds to the appeal. #5 Smiling Tiger has earned this blog's respect by being one of the few three year olds in the country to beat older, doing so twice in his last three starts. He also is making his first start on dirt, and popped a bullet work here last week. This blog is taking a stand against #3 Wise Dan, who seems to have picked up some "steam" this week, but is making only his 5th career start.
Selections:
Kinsale King
Big Drama
Smiling Tiger /Riley Tucker
Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint - Grade 2 - 5 furlongs - (turf)
This race was quite literally impossible to figure out for this blog. The horse who we had hoped to pin our hopes on, #1 Chamberlain Bridge, popped an abscess on his foot last week and missed his last work. That does not bode well for him in this race, and he no longer the pick. Instead of offering analysis, this blog will just point out a longshot in #13 Tropic Storm. The reason we point out this horse is that the cutback in distance and the abundance of speed in the field lead this blog to believe that if he can get over into a decent spot down the backstretch, he may be able to hang on for a share. The "if you put a gun to my head" selection is #9 Rose Catherine, because of her undefeated record at the distance.
Live Horses: (not enough conviction to make them selections)
Rose Catherine, Tropic Storm, Silver Timber, Unzip Me, Bridgetown
Breeders' Cup Juvenile - Grade 1 - 1m & 1/16th
This race has the two big names from the east coast who have gathered all the headlines, #2 Boys at Tosconova and #7 Uncle Mo. These two have both put in breathtaking efforts in the most recent starts and deserve to be the first two choices in the betting. Both stretch out to two turns for the first time today, but neither should have a problem with the distance. Uncle Mo is a pure speedball, and seeing how he reacts to pace pressure is the main question with him. 'Boys' must overcome a two month layoff, but has actually passed a horse, a rare thing in this field. These two will hopefully cause the price on #10 Jaycito to climb higher than the 8-1 morning line. This son of Victory Gallop has already won going two turns (in the Norfolk), but must overcome the 1 for 18 record on the board for horses coming out of the Norfolk running in the BC Juvenile when it is held at Churchill Downs. These three are the only ones this blog feels can win.
Selections:
Jaycito
Uncle Mo
Boys at Tosconova
Breeders' Cup Mile - Grade 1 - One Mile - (turf)
The first of the two horses attempting to win their third Breeders' Cup race is the deserving favorite and the wonderful mare #10 Goldikova. She comes in fine fashion, winning the Grade 1 Prix de la Foret against males at Longchamp. She is ultra game and there is no rela chink in her armor, Unless something unforeseen happens, she looks like a very strong candidate to make history. This blog;s crazy longshot is #8 Get Stormy. If for some reason the mare does not fire, Get Stormy looks to get a perfect trip behind speedball #9 Sidney's Candy. Whether he is good enough is completely other story, but at a healthy number, he is worth a shot.
Selections:
Goldikova
Paco Boy (who has been chasing Goldi all summer)
Get Stormy
Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile - Grade 1 - one mile
This race took a hit when probable post time favorite #8 Crown of Thorns went down with an injury on Friday. Favoritism will either fall to #5 Here Comes Ben or #6 Gayego. This blog is going to take a chance with the horse just to their outside, #7 Thiskyhasnolimit. "This" has been running effectively at two turns, but has always stuck this blog as a one-turn miler. The only other time h did this, he won the Grade 3 Iroquois on this very track. He has worked nicely in the interim and will probably go off at or near the 10-1 morning line. The morning line favorite #10 Morning Line is a horrible favorite, with only a single Grade 2 to his name. He appears to be a two-turn horse who cannot pass, and will be up against it.
Selections:
Thiskyhasnolimit
Gayego
Here Comes Ben
Breeders' Cup Turf - Grade 1 - 1m & 1/2 (turf)
The big question surround this relatively compact field of 8 is whether or not 2010 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe winner #6 Workforce will run or not. To this blog, it does not matter, as the selection either way is #7 Behkabad. He has run will over a surface with less give in it than hat the connections of Workforce are looking for and was well-bet in the Arc, losing by only 4 lengths with a spot of trouble. The #1 Champ Pegasus is interesting because he is the only on in the field who no one knows how truly good he is, since this is first trip outside of California. He should be on or near the lead, and this may give him a fighting chance with the lack of early speed signed on.
Selections:
Bekhabad
Workforce
Champ Pegasus
That leaves the Classic. But if you are a follower of this blog, you know exactly who is the selection, and who the one to fear is. (Hint, it's a she). But forhow I explain it, you will have to find out in my next post, which will be put up later this BC Saturday Morning. Good luck everybody!
Tuesday, September 7, 2010
Del Mar Futurity - Will the Del Mar meet end with Gusto?
Before we begin, i need to apologize for my lack of posts. I had a computer issue that left me without one from Travers Day up until this last weekend. I apologize and will attempt to make it up to you over the coming weeks.
Wednesday is closing day at Del Mar. The traditional closing day feature is the 63rd running of the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity, run at 7 furlongs. This race has had some great winners such as Silver Charm, Bertrando and Best Pal. Recent victors are Stevie Wonderboy and Lookin at Lucky. Four of the last six winners (Declan's Moon, Stevie Wonderboy, Midshipman, Lookin at Lucky) have gone one to win the Eclipse Award for two year old male. Two of those also won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (Stevie Wonderboy, Midshipman). Who will join the historic list of winners? Here is the field:
#1 Jaycito M Garcia 12/1
#2 Riveting Reason A Solis 12/1
#3 McKenzies Way D Flores 8/1
#4 J P's Gusto P Valenzuela 5/2
#5 Just Imagine M Pedroza 20/1
#6 Major Art (GB) M Smith 8/1
#7 Western Mood J Rosario 7/2
#8 Indian Winter R Bejarano 5/1
#9 Comma to the Top C Nakatani 20/1
#10 Road Ready V Espinoza 8/1
#11 Gahnzo Bob A Quinonez 30/1
The morning line favorite is #4 J P's Gusto. This son of Successful Appeal has swept the 2yo stakes in Southern California so far and looks to continue the trend with a victory. He has 3 steady works in the interim. He is rather tractable, as he has come from just off the pace, but can assert himself on the lead, as he did last time out in the Grade 2 Best Pal. Three steady works, including the last one in a crisp 4f work in 46 & 4/5, shows that he is still in top form. But he is not the selection.
The selection is #7 Western Mood. This son of West Acre finished a so-so third last time out in the Best Pal. This blog admits to picking Western Mood the last two times against J P's Gusto. J P was simply the better horse both times, but this is the best time to turn the tables. Too close to the pace last time out, he will hopefully be given a more patient ride this time by jockey Joel Rosario. He totes 3 nice works, including a smart 5 furlong work last time out in 1:00 & 3/5. He will have no problem with the distance, and should get a nice trip with all of the potential front end horses signed up for the race.
The most interesting horse in this race to this blog is the British invader, #6 Major Art. This British-born son of Compton Place finished off the board in his most recent start 24 days ago in the listed stake Prix Francois Boutin at Deauville in France going 7 furlongs over the soft going. He previously finished 3rd in a Grade 3 at Goodwood in England. This is his first start over a synthetic track. He has been supplemented into this race by his new connections for his first start in the U.S. and for trainer Eric Kruljac. Major Art will be ridden by jockey Mike Smith, who has good numbers when riding for Kruljac. Will he take advantage of the classic "fresh off the plane" angle to score the upset?
Others to consider are: #8 Indian Water who won smartly 1st time out for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. (Also the trainer of #7) He will have the services of leading rider Rafael Bejarano and has two maintenance works; #1 Jaycito who lead most of the way in his debut until the #8 caught him in the final strides. He has experience with the rail and should be winging from the inside; and #3 McKenzies Way, who blasted a field of maidens last out gate-to-wire.
This should be a great race to determine the current top 2yo on the west coast. Will the chalk prevail once again? Will revenge be exacted instead? Will a new shooter shock the world? We shall see what happens as this appears to be a smashing renewal of the Del Mar Futurity. Hopefully a future star will announce his presence to the world with a scintillating performance.
Wednesday is closing day at Del Mar. The traditional closing day feature is the 63rd running of the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity, run at 7 furlongs. This race has had some great winners such as Silver Charm, Bertrando and Best Pal. Recent victors are Stevie Wonderboy and Lookin at Lucky. Four of the last six winners (Declan's Moon, Stevie Wonderboy, Midshipman, Lookin at Lucky) have gone one to win the Eclipse Award for two year old male. Two of those also won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (Stevie Wonderboy, Midshipman). Who will join the historic list of winners? Here is the field:
#1 Jaycito M Garcia 12/1
#2 Riveting Reason A Solis 12/1
#3 McKenzies Way D Flores 8/1
#4 J P's Gusto P Valenzuela 5/2
#5 Just Imagine M Pedroza 20/1
#6 Major Art (GB) M Smith 8/1
#7 Western Mood J Rosario 7/2
#8 Indian Winter R Bejarano 5/1
#9 Comma to the Top C Nakatani 20/1
#10 Road Ready V Espinoza 8/1
#11 Gahnzo Bob A Quinonez 30/1
The morning line favorite is #4 J P's Gusto. This son of Successful Appeal has swept the 2yo stakes in Southern California so far and looks to continue the trend with a victory. He has 3 steady works in the interim. He is rather tractable, as he has come from just off the pace, but can assert himself on the lead, as he did last time out in the Grade 2 Best Pal. Three steady works, including the last one in a crisp 4f work in 46 & 4/5, shows that he is still in top form. But he is not the selection.
The selection is #7 Western Mood. This son of West Acre finished a so-so third last time out in the Best Pal. This blog admits to picking Western Mood the last two times against J P's Gusto. J P was simply the better horse both times, but this is the best time to turn the tables. Too close to the pace last time out, he will hopefully be given a more patient ride this time by jockey Joel Rosario. He totes 3 nice works, including a smart 5 furlong work last time out in 1:00 & 3/5. He will have no problem with the distance, and should get a nice trip with all of the potential front end horses signed up for the race.
The most interesting horse in this race to this blog is the British invader, #6 Major Art. This British-born son of Compton Place finished off the board in his most recent start 24 days ago in the listed stake Prix Francois Boutin at Deauville in France going 7 furlongs over the soft going. He previously finished 3rd in a Grade 3 at Goodwood in England. This is his first start over a synthetic track. He has been supplemented into this race by his new connections for his first start in the U.S. and for trainer Eric Kruljac. Major Art will be ridden by jockey Mike Smith, who has good numbers when riding for Kruljac. Will he take advantage of the classic "fresh off the plane" angle to score the upset?
Others to consider are: #8 Indian Water who won smartly 1st time out for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. (Also the trainer of #7) He will have the services of leading rider Rafael Bejarano and has two maintenance works; #1 Jaycito who lead most of the way in his debut until the #8 caught him in the final strides. He has experience with the rail and should be winging from the inside; and #3 McKenzies Way, who blasted a field of maidens last out gate-to-wire.
This should be a great race to determine the current top 2yo on the west coast. Will the chalk prevail once again? Will revenge be exacted instead? Will a new shooter shock the world? We shall see what happens as this appears to be a smashing renewal of the Del Mar Futurity. Hopefully a future star will announce his presence to the world with a scintillating performance.
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