Breeders' Cup Saturday comes bringing high intrigue, high drama and a high bar to top Friday's wild outcomes. After a solid 4-for-10 yesterday, can this blog keep it up? Let's get right into the action with the first race on the card.
The first race is a entry-level allowance race for females going a one-turn mile. Two horses catch the eye here. Jump Up will be the probable favorite based off a fast maiden win in her debut at Keeneland. She has worked well here at Churchill and her pedigree states that dirt will not be a problem. The other one that catches the eye is Dreamingly. While she has never been on dirt, it doesn't look like it will be a problem. These two look like they will appreciate the one-turn and will be on or near the lead.
Pick: #8 Jump Up - Others to consider: #5 Dreamingly
Confidence Rating: 8.5; 9 that one of two will win
The second is the $65k Dream Supreme Stakes. There is a very vulnerable morning line favorite.in Dancinginherdreams. She has not shown much improvement from her two year old form (which included a win here) and looks to be beatable. Grandacious has a chance to gate to wire, but can pass if needed; Salty Strike is 3-for-4 over the Churchill Downs track; Splendor Town has shown occasionally ability that could win this at a big number.
Pick: #8 Salty Strike - Others to consider: #1 Grandacious, #9 Splendor Town
Confidence Rating: 8.5; 9.6 that one of the three will win, 10 that Dancinginherdreams will not win.
BC Marathon is the first big race of the day. This blog is just taking a stab in this race, as it has no real opinion. Birdrun looks like he might be able to go gate-to-wire here in this 14 furlong race.
Pick: #1 Birdrun
Confidence Rating: 1, as the scale does not go any lower.
Next up is the Juvenile Turf. Another tough race where contention runs deep. The very tepid selection is Wrote. This son of multiple BC Turf winner High Chapparal has won two of four, with the two wins coming on courses with turns (albeit right-handed). The others this blog would use in multi-race exotics are the undefeated on turf Finale, Bourbon runner-up Coalport and another Euro in Caspar Netscher.
Pick: #5 Wrote - Others to consider: #13 Finale, #6 Coalport, #7 Caspar Netscher.
Confidence Rating: 3.3
The Sprint is another tough race, though this blog is going to take a stand. The pick is Force Freeze. He blew away the competition in first start in the U.S back in July. He valiantly tried to get to fellow runner Giant Ryan last time out when he just could not get there while running against a speed-favoring track at Belmont. He has two nice works and looks to have first jump on the closers.
Pick: #6 Force Freeze
Confidence Rating: 6.7
The Turf Sprint starts the $3m Ultra Pick 6 with a well-matched full field of 14. The pick is Regally Ready, as he has experience over the course, a solid post, can be on the lead but does not need it. If one wants to look past him, it becomes a wide open affair with many, many options.
Pick: #8 Regally Ready
Confidence Rating: 5.5 (Turf sprints at Churchill Downs is not one of my strengths)
The BC Dirt Mile is a race that has a short history but all of its winners have one thing in common: They all ran their last race at nine furlong. The only member of the field to do that was Tres Borrachos. But his form is very suspect and he will be used only because of the above angle. The pick is Irrefutable. Coming off a good second in the Ancient Title, the "other Baffert" looks to finally get his chance at this extended sprint. With a win over the track earlier in the year, he looks primed for a big effort. The other horse being used is Trappe Shot. The whole year this son of Tapit has been running at six furlongs, and each time this blog played against him. Now he finally stretches out to a distance that allows him to use his track-and-attack skills to better use, he can get the jump on likely favorite Caleb's Posse.
Pick: #6 Irrefutable - Others to consider: #9 Trappe Shot, #4 Tres Borrachos
Confidence Rating: 6.9; 9 that one of these three is the winner.
This blog's thoughts on the Breeders' Cup Turf can summed up with one sentence: "Any European-based horse that gets beat by an American based horse isn't allowed back on the plane to Europe."
Pick: #1 St. Nicholas Abbey (because he is the 1st Euro they will load into the gate) - Others to consider: The other four Euros: #2 Sarafina, #6 Await The Dawn, #7 Sea Moon, #9 Midday
Confidence Rating: 4; 10 that a Euro will win.
The Juvenile is another Classic East-West match-up as Champagne winner Union Rags faces off vs. Norfolk winner Creative Cause. This blog is going to go out on a limb and not pick either or those or Norfolk runner-up and Del Mar Futurity winner Drill. Instead the pick is Champagne runner-up Alpha. Making his first start around two turns is a big key for a horse his trainer said is still learning the game. Along with Dullahan, this is another spread race.
Pick: #9 Alpha - Others to consider: #7 Creative Cause, #2 Dullahan, #4 Drill, #10 Union Rags
Confidence rating: 4, 9.5 that the winner is one of those five listed.
The race that the world cannot wait to see is the Mile, as Goldikova looks to win an unprecedented 4th straight Breeders' Cup Mile. Some say she has lost a step, some doubt whether she can win this, but to play against her is a dangerous proposition. However, this blog will have a different horse as its top pick while using the mare in everything. If she has traffic troubles and just can't find her way to the winner circles, Jeranimo could be the one to take advantage. He ran a monster race in the Oak Tree Mile and is coming blazing. He will be sitting just off of Sidney's Candy, and when that one loses the lead in the stretch, he will have first jump on the come-from-behind horses. At a big price, he is worth a flyer.
Pick: #7 Jeranimo - Others to consider: #1 Goldikova
Confidence rating: 4; 9 that if he doesn't pull the upset, she completes the 4-peat.
So here we are at the main event, the Classic. This blog makes no apologies for being a huge fan of Flat Out. Since the beginning, way back before this blog was even a possibility, way back in late 2008, Flat Out caught the attention of this writer. He was at one point the choice for the Derby. Thought to be another casualty of the Derby trail after he was hurt, he made his comeback off a 20 month layoff with a win in December. After a false start over the winter, he returned with a 2nd, then a flop in the Stephen Foster while stuck on a dying rail. Bouncing back with good performance after good performance, he won his last start to give his trainer the long sought after first Grade 1 win. Now it is his time to reward his connections with a win in the biggest race of the year. The only horses that can stand in the way of this goal is the globe-trotting So You Think and the stubborn front-runner Game On Dude. No one else scares this blog. Not Uncle Mo (too far, poor preparation), not Havre De Grace (too far), not To Honor and Serve (cannot pass, will not get the lead).
Pick: #2 Flat Out
Confidence Rating: 7.8 (So You Think wins if he takes to dirt.)
There you go, all...Wait, there's another race after the Classic? Why? "Traffic Considerations"? Alright. (looks over the PPs, cracks a big smile)
May Day Rose caps off a possible huge day for Bob Baffert by going gate-to-wire in what race caller and the current voice of the Breeders' Cup Trevor Denman " a stylish performance".
Pick: #9 May Day Rose
Confidence rating: 9.6
Good luck folks. Go Flat Out!
Showing posts with label pletcher. Show all posts
Showing posts with label pletcher. Show all posts
Saturday, November 5, 2011
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
Ten's 10 for the Derby - A Salty Crop? Or Very Sweet?
After the (not so) shocking result of the Lexington Stakes, we have the Derby field set, save a last-ditch effort by 85ina50 and Pleasant Prince to break in. But who really has a chance? Here are my final thoughts on the top ten, with a rating on their chances of winning the Derby on the "chocolate-covered pickle" rating scale.
1. Eskendereya
All systems are go for this son of Giant's Causeway. He arrived today in Louisville and looked like a horse on a mission. Will he be the one to break the Pletcher "Derby Donut"?
Rating: 9 pickles out of 10.
2. Endorsement
The Sunland Derby winner has been getting some major buzz lately, and there is a chance he will end up being the "steam" horse come May 1. His first work back was a swift 4f in 46 & 4 12 days after his victory. He then worked 8 days later in company 5f in 1:01 & 2 on the 17th. Looks like all systems are go.
Rating: 8 pickles out of 10.
3. Looking At Lucky
The 2-year-old champ was roughed up in his last prep, the Santa Anita Derby but bounced back quickly from it and looked great galloping in the mornings before he shipped out to Louisville this week.
Rating: 7 pickles out of 10.
4. Ice Box
The Florida Derby winner worked at Churchill Downs on the 16th in 48 & 2 for 4 furlongs for the 6th best work on the day. He hopes to capitalize on the wicked pace expected on Derby day. But is he fast enough to get there?
Rating: 5 pickles out of 10
5. Awesome Act
The Gotham winner got crushed by the #1 on this list last time out in the Wood, but the there is hope. The trainer said that he was not at his best, and that the plan is on schedule. He worked today a nice 6 furlongs in 1:12 & 3, tying for the best work with Oaks contender Tidal Pool. He may bounce back, but is that enough to make up the 9 & 3/4 lengths on #1?
Rating: 5 pickles out of 10
6. Mission Impazible
The Louisiana Derby winner arrived on the plane with the others Pletcher platoon today. This forgotten member of the group is one of the few who can pass horses. But will his tendency to be stalk just off the pace leave him with no punch come the top of the lane?
Rating: 4 pickles out of 10
7. Super Saver
The Arkansas Derby runner-up gets his spot on this high on the list only because he is this blog's choice for the horse most likely to "end up" in the trifecta, as he will just "end up" having the lead at the mile pole. Will he be the last speed horse standing and then hang on another two furlongs?
Rating: 3 pickles out of 10
8. Devil May Care
The filly who is nothing more than a maybe cracks this list because stylistically she has a just a good a chance as any after the top three. She can sit off the pace, but will not be so far back that she would have to invent a trip. Her win in the Bonnie Miss was just as good as Ice Box's win. Same perfect set-up too. But she made the lead much earlier than her male counterpart, which is a plus on Derby Day, when the "wall of sound" strikes at the quarter pole in the stretch.
Rating: 3 pickles out of 10.
9. Paddy O'Prado
The runner up in the Blue Grass Stakes sat just off the pace set by Odysseus and hung in for 2nd against the perfect trip winner Stately Victor. While he can be pass horses, will he handle dirt? His connections hope he can be like another son of El Prado who could, Medaglia D'Oro.
Rating: 2 pickles out of 10
10. Sidney's Candy
The Santa Anita Derby winner is on this list only because I needed a 9th horse and he was the best of the rest. Everyone is saying that he can rate off the pace or just go to the lead and keep going. But with Conveyance, Line of David and American Lion plus maybe Rule being sent straight to the lead, there is no way he will make it gate-to-wire. About him rating? The horse he sat off of and passed, Oceanographer, is still a maiden. He was caught going 5 and 1/2 furlongs by Distorted Dave, who was a 1st time starter, bred to go two turns & a casualty on the Derby trail. Sidney did not pass Oceanographer, Oceanographer backed up pass him.
Rating: 1 pickle out of 10.
There it is. Will this list be even close to Derby Day? Who knows. But if it nothing else, it is the debut of something that will be remembered: the chocolate-covered pickle rating system!
1. Eskendereya
All systems are go for this son of Giant's Causeway. He arrived today in Louisville and looked like a horse on a mission. Will he be the one to break the Pletcher "Derby Donut"?
Rating: 9 pickles out of 10.
2. Endorsement
The Sunland Derby winner has been getting some major buzz lately, and there is a chance he will end up being the "steam" horse come May 1. His first work back was a swift 4f in 46 & 4 12 days after his victory. He then worked 8 days later in company 5f in 1:01 & 2 on the 17th. Looks like all systems are go.
Rating: 8 pickles out of 10.
3. Looking At Lucky
The 2-year-old champ was roughed up in his last prep, the Santa Anita Derby but bounced back quickly from it and looked great galloping in the mornings before he shipped out to Louisville this week.
Rating: 7 pickles out of 10.
4. Ice Box
The Florida Derby winner worked at Churchill Downs on the 16th in 48 & 2 for 4 furlongs for the 6th best work on the day. He hopes to capitalize on the wicked pace expected on Derby day. But is he fast enough to get there?
Rating: 5 pickles out of 10
5. Awesome Act
The Gotham winner got crushed by the #1 on this list last time out in the Wood, but the there is hope. The trainer said that he was not at his best, and that the plan is on schedule. He worked today a nice 6 furlongs in 1:12 & 3, tying for the best work with Oaks contender Tidal Pool. He may bounce back, but is that enough to make up the 9 & 3/4 lengths on #1?
Rating: 5 pickles out of 10
6. Mission Impazible
The Louisiana Derby winner arrived on the plane with the others Pletcher platoon today. This forgotten member of the group is one of the few who can pass horses. But will his tendency to be stalk just off the pace leave him with no punch come the top of the lane?
Rating: 4 pickles out of 10
7. Super Saver
The Arkansas Derby runner-up gets his spot on this high on the list only because he is this blog's choice for the horse most likely to "end up" in the trifecta, as he will just "end up" having the lead at the mile pole. Will he be the last speed horse standing and then hang on another two furlongs?
Rating: 3 pickles out of 10
8. Devil May Care
The filly who is nothing more than a maybe cracks this list because stylistically she has a just a good a chance as any after the top three. She can sit off the pace, but will not be so far back that she would have to invent a trip. Her win in the Bonnie Miss was just as good as Ice Box's win. Same perfect set-up too. But she made the lead much earlier than her male counterpart, which is a plus on Derby Day, when the "wall of sound" strikes at the quarter pole in the stretch.
Rating: 3 pickles out of 10.
9. Paddy O'Prado
The runner up in the Blue Grass Stakes sat just off the pace set by Odysseus and hung in for 2nd against the perfect trip winner Stately Victor. While he can be pass horses, will he handle dirt? His connections hope he can be like another son of El Prado who could, Medaglia D'Oro.
Rating: 2 pickles out of 10
10. Sidney's Candy
The Santa Anita Derby winner is on this list only because I needed a 9th horse and he was the best of the rest. Everyone is saying that he can rate off the pace or just go to the lead and keep going. But with Conveyance, Line of David and American Lion plus maybe Rule being sent straight to the lead, there is no way he will make it gate-to-wire. About him rating? The horse he sat off of and passed, Oceanographer, is still a maiden. He was caught going 5 and 1/2 furlongs by Distorted Dave, who was a 1st time starter, bred to go two turns & a casualty on the Derby trail. Sidney did not pass Oceanographer, Oceanographer backed up pass him.
Rating: 1 pickle out of 10.
There it is. Will this list be even close to Derby Day? Who knows. But if it nothing else, it is the debut of something that will be remembered: the chocolate-covered pickle rating system!
Monday, March 29, 2010
Ten's 10 for the Derby
I wanted to wait a few more posts before i put out my first derby list, but this past weekend's Derby preps has compelled me to put one out today. This list is whom i think have the best chance to win the Derby when the gate opens May 1, not the top ten three year-olds on the trail, nor the top ten 3 year-old males in training. So you will not find Noble's Promise, Conveyance and Drosselmeyer (He will not make it on earnings) on the list. Nor will you find D'Funnybone, who i consider in the top 5 of all 3 year-olds. Without any further ado, here we go....
1. Lookin at Lucky
The reigning champ came back in fine form with a trouble-filled victory in the Rebel. He has done nothing wrong on his quest to become Baffert's 4th Derby winner. Baffert has decided to stay home for Lucky's last prep, but will (dirt-synth-dirt) + (shipping back and forth) = (trouble)?
Next race: Santa Anita Derby, April 3, Santa Anita
1a. Eskendereya
The "most impressive prep on the trail" mantle had belonged to him with his dominating victory in the Fountain of Youth. His victory has been further enhanced by the running of the Florida Derby, in which two horses he crushed, Ice Box (see below) & Pleasant Prince, finished 1-2. His owner Zayat Stables decided to have 6 weeks to his final prep instead of 6 weeks to the Derby, skipping the Florida Derby in favor of the Wood. Will this prove to be a foolish mistake, with Esky in need of some graded earnings to make the Derby?
Next race: Wood Memorial, April 3, Aqueduct
3. Endorsement
He probably shouldn't be this high after winning just a grade 3 (video below), but they way he won the Sunland Derby has just gotten me all a flutter. He has everything you could want in a Derby horse: Great distance pedigree, positional speed and a spurt. His victory was a stylish performance, beating the previously unbeaten Conveyance and nearly setting a track record in the process. The naysayers will say he beat nothing, he got a perfect trip and he hasn't faced any top competition. But when you do it that way, it doesn't matter. As of now, he is my derby horse.
Next race: Kentucky Derby, May 1, Churchill Downs
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zIo8jiLP9as
4. Awesome Act
Pointed to the Wood since he facile win in the Gotham, this son of Awesome Again will be stepping up to face the big boys next time out, going against #1 on this list. Will he improve off his 1st start on dirt, or is he just an one-act show?
Next Race: Wood Memorial, April 3, Aqueduct
5. Odysseus
The winner of the Tampa Bay Derby in an epic performance (below) attended a swift pace, dropped back and somehow came back to nail Schoolyard Dreams at the wire. He's topping a few derby lists at the moment and he is taking the Street Sense route to the Twin Spire. But has he spent his Derby race already and end up a Greek tragedy by being be the first horse out on the graded earnings bubble?
Next race: Blue Grass Stakes, April 10, Keeneland
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jr98xT193IE
6. Ice Box
The winner of the Florida Derby in a desperate finish over Pleasant Prince has steadily improving son of Pulpit. The Florida Derby was an absolute perfect set-up for him. Will the 6 weeks off + a 20 horse field be too much heat to handle?
Next Race: Kentucky Derby, May 1, Churchill Downs
7. Mission Impazible
The winner of the Louisiana Derby earns a spot on the list solely for winning the race. The fast early - slow late nature of the race, including a :38+ final 3/8, raise some doubts about over whether he will move up with an additional furlong. At least he can sit close up and pass, a nice commodity to have on the 1st Saturday of May.
Next race: Kentucky Derby, May 1, Churchill Downs
8. Interactif
His valiant effort in the San Felipe against lone speed Sidney's Candy has many offering him a chance to make some noise on the trail. Aiming for the Blue Grass, this son of Broken Vow should have no problem with the added distance. He has handled turf and synth, but can he handle dirt?
Next race: Blue Grass Stakes, April 10th, Keeneland
9. Backtalk
The wildcard of the group, this multiple graded stakes winner at two came back with nice effort in a stakes race at Delta. The pedigree is fine for the distance, and he has been working well towards his next start in Cicero, IL. Will this half-brother of Bsharpsonata move up second off the layoff, or regress coming off the bullring?
Next race: Illinois Derby, April 3rd, Hawthorne Race Course
10. Schoolyard Dreams
The horse who Odysseus nailed on the wire came back with a blistering work in :46 4/5 two weeks after losing the nastiest head bob since Colonel John beat Mambo in Seattle in the 2008 Travers. His connections changed plans to get Ramon Dominguez to ride him by switching from a seeming easier spot in the Illinois Derby to the Wood Memorial. Will the (alleged) bad karma surrounding the Ryan barn over the death of Big Truck come back to smash these Derby "Dreams"?
Next race: Wood Memorial, April 3, Aqueduct
In the "others receiving votes" list, in alphabetical order are:
1. Lookin at Lucky
The reigning champ came back in fine form with a trouble-filled victory in the Rebel. He has done nothing wrong on his quest to become Baffert's 4th Derby winner. Baffert has decided to stay home for Lucky's last prep, but will (dirt-synth-dirt) + (shipping back and forth) = (trouble)?
Next race: Santa Anita Derby, April 3, Santa Anita
1a. Eskendereya
The "most impressive prep on the trail" mantle had belonged to him with his dominating victory in the Fountain of Youth. His victory has been further enhanced by the running of the Florida Derby, in which two horses he crushed, Ice Box (see below) & Pleasant Prince, finished 1-2. His owner Zayat Stables decided to have 6 weeks to his final prep instead of 6 weeks to the Derby, skipping the Florida Derby in favor of the Wood. Will this prove to be a foolish mistake, with Esky in need of some graded earnings to make the Derby?
Next race: Wood Memorial, April 3, Aqueduct
3. Endorsement
He probably shouldn't be this high after winning just a grade 3 (video below), but they way he won the Sunland Derby has just gotten me all a flutter. He has everything you could want in a Derby horse: Great distance pedigree, positional speed and a spurt. His victory was a stylish performance, beating the previously unbeaten Conveyance and nearly setting a track record in the process. The naysayers will say he beat nothing, he got a perfect trip and he hasn't faced any top competition. But when you do it that way, it doesn't matter. As of now, he is my derby horse.
Next race: Kentucky Derby, May 1, Churchill Downs
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zIo8jiLP9as
4. Awesome Act
Pointed to the Wood since he facile win in the Gotham, this son of Awesome Again will be stepping up to face the big boys next time out, going against #1 on this list. Will he improve off his 1st start on dirt, or is he just an one-act show?
Next Race: Wood Memorial, April 3, Aqueduct
5. Odysseus
The winner of the Tampa Bay Derby in an epic performance (below) attended a swift pace, dropped back and somehow came back to nail Schoolyard Dreams at the wire. He's topping a few derby lists at the moment and he is taking the Street Sense route to the Twin Spire. But has he spent his Derby race already and end up a Greek tragedy by being be the first horse out on the graded earnings bubble?
Next race: Blue Grass Stakes, April 10, Keeneland
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jr98xT193IE
6. Ice Box
The winner of the Florida Derby in a desperate finish over Pleasant Prince has steadily improving son of Pulpit. The Florida Derby was an absolute perfect set-up for him. Will the 6 weeks off + a 20 horse field be too much heat to handle?
Next Race: Kentucky Derby, May 1, Churchill Downs
7. Mission Impazible
The winner of the Louisiana Derby earns a spot on the list solely for winning the race. The fast early - slow late nature of the race, including a :38+ final 3/8, raise some doubts about over whether he will move up with an additional furlong. At least he can sit close up and pass, a nice commodity to have on the 1st Saturday of May.
Next race: Kentucky Derby, May 1, Churchill Downs
8. Interactif
His valiant effort in the San Felipe against lone speed Sidney's Candy has many offering him a chance to make some noise on the trail. Aiming for the Blue Grass, this son of Broken Vow should have no problem with the added distance. He has handled turf and synth, but can he handle dirt?
Next race: Blue Grass Stakes, April 10th, Keeneland
9. Backtalk
The wildcard of the group, this multiple graded stakes winner at two came back with nice effort in a stakes race at Delta. The pedigree is fine for the distance, and he has been working well towards his next start in Cicero, IL. Will this half-brother of Bsharpsonata move up second off the layoff, or regress coming off the bullring?
Next race: Illinois Derby, April 3rd, Hawthorne Race Course
10. Schoolyard Dreams
The horse who Odysseus nailed on the wire came back with a blistering work in :46 4/5 two weeks after losing the nastiest head bob since Colonel John beat Mambo in Seattle in the 2008 Travers. His connections changed plans to get Ramon Dominguez to ride him by switching from a seeming easier spot in the Illinois Derby to the Wood Memorial. Will the (alleged) bad karma surrounding the Ryan barn over the death of Big Truck come back to smash these Derby "Dreams"?
Next race: Wood Memorial, April 3, Aqueduct
In the "others receiving votes" list, in alphabetical order are:
- Caracortado - Will the world be his once he takes on the champ?
- Dave in Dixie - Will dirt be the key to helping him to get that elusive stakes win?
- Dean's Kitten - Dirt is the question. Can he answer the question?
- Dublin - Can Terry Thompson keep the Irish eyes from crying come Arkansas Derby time?
- Pleasant Prince - Ice Box has his number so far. Can he turn the tables AND beat 18 other horses in the process?
- Rule/Super Saver - These two speedballs once were considered Winstar's best chances at the Derby. Can one of them learn to rate in time, or will one of them be left in the barn?
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