Breeders' Cup Saturday comes bringing high intrigue, high drama and a high bar to top Friday's wild outcomes. After a solid 4-for-10 yesterday, can this blog keep it up? Let's get right into the action with the first race on the card.
The first race is a entry-level allowance race for females going a one-turn mile. Two horses catch the eye here. Jump Up will be the probable favorite based off a fast maiden win in her debut at Keeneland. She has worked well here at Churchill and her pedigree states that dirt will not be a problem. The other one that catches the eye is Dreamingly. While she has never been on dirt, it doesn't look like it will be a problem. These two look like they will appreciate the one-turn and will be on or near the lead.
Pick: #8 Jump Up - Others to consider: #5 Dreamingly
Confidence Rating: 8.5; 9 that one of two will win
The second is the $65k Dream Supreme Stakes. There is a very vulnerable morning line favorite.in Dancinginherdreams. She has not shown much improvement from her two year old form (which included a win here) and looks to be beatable. Grandacious has a chance to gate to wire, but can pass if needed; Salty Strike is 3-for-4 over the Churchill Downs track; Splendor Town has shown occasionally ability that could win this at a big number.
Pick: #8 Salty Strike - Others to consider: #1 Grandacious, #9 Splendor Town
Confidence Rating: 8.5; 9.6 that one of the three will win, 10 that Dancinginherdreams will not win.
BC Marathon is the first big race of the day. This blog is just taking a stab in this race, as it has no real opinion. Birdrun looks like he might be able to go gate-to-wire here in this 14 furlong race.
Pick: #1 Birdrun
Confidence Rating: 1, as the scale does not go any lower.
Next up is the Juvenile Turf. Another tough race where contention runs deep. The very tepid selection is Wrote. This son of multiple BC Turf winner High Chapparal has won two of four, with the two wins coming on courses with turns (albeit right-handed). The others this blog would use in multi-race exotics are the undefeated on turf Finale, Bourbon runner-up Coalport and another Euro in Caspar Netscher.
Pick: #5 Wrote - Others to consider: #13 Finale, #6 Coalport, #7 Caspar Netscher.
Confidence Rating: 3.3
The Sprint is another tough race, though this blog is going to take a stand. The pick is Force Freeze. He blew away the competition in first start in the U.S back in July. He valiantly tried to get to fellow runner Giant Ryan last time out when he just could not get there while running against a speed-favoring track at Belmont. He has two nice works and looks to have first jump on the closers.
Pick: #6 Force Freeze
Confidence Rating: 6.7
The Turf Sprint starts the $3m Ultra Pick 6 with a well-matched full field of 14. The pick is Regally Ready, as he has experience over the course, a solid post, can be on the lead but does not need it. If one wants to look past him, it becomes a wide open affair with many, many options.
Pick: #8 Regally Ready
Confidence Rating: 5.5 (Turf sprints at Churchill Downs is not one of my strengths)
The BC Dirt Mile is a race that has a short history but all of its winners have one thing in common: They all ran their last race at nine furlong. The only member of the field to do that was Tres Borrachos. But his form is very suspect and he will be used only because of the above angle. The pick is Irrefutable. Coming off a good second in the Ancient Title, the "other Baffert" looks to finally get his chance at this extended sprint. With a win over the track earlier in the year, he looks primed for a big effort. The other horse being used is Trappe Shot. The whole year this son of Tapit has been running at six furlongs, and each time this blog played against him. Now he finally stretches out to a distance that allows him to use his track-and-attack skills to better use, he can get the jump on likely favorite Caleb's Posse.
Pick: #6 Irrefutable - Others to consider: #9 Trappe Shot, #4 Tres Borrachos
Confidence Rating: 6.9; 9 that one of these three is the winner.
This blog's thoughts on the Breeders' Cup Turf can summed up with one sentence: "Any European-based horse that gets beat by an American based horse isn't allowed back on the plane to Europe."
Pick: #1 St. Nicholas Abbey (because he is the 1st Euro they will load into the gate) - Others to consider: The other four Euros: #2 Sarafina, #6 Await The Dawn, #7 Sea Moon, #9 Midday
Confidence Rating: 4; 10 that a Euro will win.
The Juvenile is another Classic East-West match-up as Champagne winner Union Rags faces off vs. Norfolk winner Creative Cause. This blog is going to go out on a limb and not pick either or those or Norfolk runner-up and Del Mar Futurity winner Drill. Instead the pick is Champagne runner-up Alpha. Making his first start around two turns is a big key for a horse his trainer said is still learning the game. Along with Dullahan, this is another spread race.
Pick: #9 Alpha - Others to consider: #7 Creative Cause, #2 Dullahan, #4 Drill, #10 Union Rags
Confidence rating: 4, 9.5 that the winner is one of those five listed.
The race that the world cannot wait to see is the Mile, as Goldikova looks to win an unprecedented 4th straight Breeders' Cup Mile. Some say she has lost a step, some doubt whether she can win this, but to play against her is a dangerous proposition. However, this blog will have a different horse as its top pick while using the mare in everything. If she has traffic troubles and just can't find her way to the winner circles, Jeranimo could be the one to take advantage. He ran a monster race in the Oak Tree Mile and is coming blazing. He will be sitting just off of Sidney's Candy, and when that one loses the lead in the stretch, he will have first jump on the come-from-behind horses. At a big price, he is worth a flyer.
Pick: #7 Jeranimo - Others to consider: #1 Goldikova
Confidence rating: 4; 9 that if he doesn't pull the upset, she completes the 4-peat.
So here we are at the main event, the Classic. This blog makes no apologies for being a huge fan of Flat Out. Since the beginning, way back before this blog was even a possibility, way back in late 2008, Flat Out caught the attention of this writer. He was at one point the choice for the Derby. Thought to be another casualty of the Derby trail after he was hurt, he made his comeback off a 20 month layoff with a win in December. After a false start over the winter, he returned with a 2nd, then a flop in the Stephen Foster while stuck on a dying rail. Bouncing back with good performance after good performance, he won his last start to give his trainer the long sought after first Grade 1 win. Now it is his time to reward his connections with a win in the biggest race of the year. The only horses that can stand in the way of this goal is the globe-trotting So You Think and the stubborn front-runner Game On Dude. No one else scares this blog. Not Uncle Mo (too far, poor preparation), not Havre De Grace (too far), not To Honor and Serve (cannot pass, will not get the lead).
Pick: #2 Flat Out
Confidence Rating: 7.8 (So You Think wins if he takes to dirt.)
There you go, all...Wait, there's another race after the Classic? Why? "Traffic Considerations"? Alright. (looks over the PPs, cracks a big smile)
May Day Rose caps off a possible huge day for Bob Baffert by going gate-to-wire in what race caller and the current voice of the Breeders' Cup Trevor Denman " a stylish performance".
Pick: #9 May Day Rose
Confidence rating: 9.6
Good luck folks. Go Flat Out!
Showing posts with label Breeders' Cup Classic. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Breeders' Cup Classic. Show all posts
Saturday, November 5, 2011
Thursday, October 27, 2011
Slow Your 'Mo
With the Breeders' Cup only days away, handicappers across the globe have started the task of dissecting the past performances of the pre-entered horses. From probable short-priced favorite Secret Circle in the Juvenile Sprint on early Friday afternoon to Uncle Mo in the Classic, the list of horses to cut through is large. The Classic is the marquee event, with the juvenile champion Uncle Mo and the filly Havre de Grace being the headliners. Others will fancy the New Zealand (by way of Australia and Europe) invader So You Think and the domestic feel-good story Flat Out. But for those who like Uncle Mo, here is another piece of information that may cause some concern.
The following sheet shows the odds and the finishing place of the lowest odds three year old in the Classic for every year since the Breeders' Cup inception. (except 1985) [Now updated with 1985's result. Thanks Steve]
Only A.P. Indy has won among any of these fine three year old colts, among them five year end champions. Of the eight favorites, five have hit the board, which represents over half of the eight total on the board finishes. For those who think Uncle Mo is a standout and will win the Classic, maybe this piece of history will cool your enthusiasm just a little.
Only A.P. Indy has won among any of these fine three year old colts, among them five year end champions. Of the eight favorites, five have hit the board, which represents over half of the eight total on the board finishes. For those who think Uncle Mo is a standout and will win the Classic, maybe this piece of history will cool your enthusiasm just a little.
Thursday, July 7, 2011
Hollywood Gold Cup - Swaps Thoughts
The Grade 1 Hollywood Gold Cup has a long, rich history that one of a field of eight hopes to add upon. Such great horses as Seabiscuit, Citation, Affirmed and Cigar have won this race in the past. The eight entrants have diverse path to get here for their chance for the win. From a former maiden claimer to a multiple graded stakes winner who looks to put it all together at the classic distance to an ageless veteran looking to defend his crown, these eight entrants all have a different path to here. The supporting stakes is the Grade 2 Swaps for three year olds, where Coil looks to add another stakes win notch to his belt before moving on to bigger and better races back east. We will start with the Swaps.
The Grade 2 Swaps Stakes (named for the California-bred winner of the 1955 Kentucky Derby and the 1956 Hollywood Gold Cup) will have a heavy favorite in Coil (right). This son of Point Given bulled his way to a win the Grade 3 Affirmed last time out over this track. He continued his strong work pattern in the interim and there seems to be no reason (at least on paper) that he will go down in defeat. His pedigree dictates the additional distance will be no problem to him, with a Belmont winner as his sire and multiple graded stakes winner at 12f as the damsire. The horse who is the most interesting prospect to upset is Boxeur Des Rues. This Doug O'Neill trainee won a first level allowance race last time out on the turf in solid time. The last time he ran over the synthetic, he bolted turning for home in his first two turn race. It looks like he has turned a corner, but this surface and the class are still major questions.
Now we turn the attention to the big one, the Hollywood Gold Cup. Twirling Candy figures to be the favorite in the race off his win in the Californian, where he rated off a dawdling pace and a tough trip to sweep to victory. (below)
Now he will stretch out another furlong once again in attempt to add to his Grade 1 win total. The expected tepid pace means that his best strategy (but one not likely employed) is to go straight to the lead from his rail draw, settle in front and then burst away in the stretch. If these tactics are not employed, Rosario could end up in an untenable position pinned down on the rail behind horses.
Many can take advantage if Twirling has a similar meltdown like the Big 'Cap. Second choice figures to be First Dude. He won the Alysheba last time out on the Kentucky Oaks undercard. He has reinvented himself as an off-the-pace type after several near misses last year. This will be the slowest pace he has to sit off since the tactics change and one has to wonder whether he has the punch to come home fast enough. He ran well over the Polytrack in the past, but until they run over the track, who knows how he will react to track. Game On Dude won the Santa Anita Handicap earlier in the year, but has had two bad losses since the win. He figures to end up on the lead (unless Twirling guns it) without any other pace in the race but who knows how he will react being in front so early. This is also his first race over the synthetic, so who knows if he will take to it, even if he has trained well over it.
There are others in the field who will take some attention. The mare Miss Match comes in off a third in the Vanity, but has never faced these types at this distance. Setsuko finished 2nd behind Twirling in the Californian and seems to do his best running as the distances increase, but is that because he is a grinder without a big kick? The old veteran and defending champ Awesome Gem ran 2nd in the Cornhusker just two weeks ago and was going so well that the connections decided to audible and run here as well. Soul Candy will try to close from the back of the pack, as will invader Dark Cove. Dark Cove has won twice over the Poly at Keeneland, but his musical chair jockeys continues with his 7th straight new pilot, this time obtaining the services of top jock Rafael Bejarano.
This blog is going with Coil and Dark Cove. Coil is the class of the field in the Swaps. Dark Cove appears to have the best kick among the closers, and with the expected slow pace, it could turn into a 1/2 mile sprint for home.
Good luck this weekend folks!
The Grade 2 Swaps Stakes (named for the California-bred winner of the 1955 Kentucky Derby and the 1956 Hollywood Gold Cup) will have a heavy favorite in Coil (right). This son of Point Given bulled his way to a win the Grade 3 Affirmed last time out over this track. He continued his strong work pattern in the interim and there seems to be no reason (at least on paper) that he will go down in defeat. His pedigree dictates the additional distance will be no problem to him, with a Belmont winner as his sire and multiple graded stakes winner at 12f as the damsire. The horse who is the most interesting prospect to upset is Boxeur Des Rues. This Doug O'Neill trainee won a first level allowance race last time out on the turf in solid time. The last time he ran over the synthetic, he bolted turning for home in his first two turn race. It looks like he has turned a corner, but this surface and the class are still major questions.Now we turn the attention to the big one, the Hollywood Gold Cup. Twirling Candy figures to be the favorite in the race off his win in the Californian, where he rated off a dawdling pace and a tough trip to sweep to victory. (below)
Now he will stretch out another furlong once again in attempt to add to his Grade 1 win total. The expected tepid pace means that his best strategy (but one not likely employed) is to go straight to the lead from his rail draw, settle in front and then burst away in the stretch. If these tactics are not employed, Rosario could end up in an untenable position pinned down on the rail behind horses.
Many can take advantage if Twirling has a similar meltdown like the Big 'Cap. Second choice figures to be First Dude. He won the Alysheba last time out on the Kentucky Oaks undercard. He has reinvented himself as an off-the-pace type after several near misses last year. This will be the slowest pace he has to sit off since the tactics change and one has to wonder whether he has the punch to come home fast enough. He ran well over the Polytrack in the past, but until they run over the track, who knows how he will react to track. Game On Dude won the Santa Anita Handicap earlier in the year, but has had two bad losses since the win. He figures to end up on the lead (unless Twirling guns it) without any other pace in the race but who knows how he will react being in front so early. This is also his first race over the synthetic, so who knows if he will take to it, even if he has trained well over it.
There are others in the field who will take some attention. The mare Miss Match comes in off a third in the Vanity, but has never faced these types at this distance. Setsuko finished 2nd behind Twirling in the Californian and seems to do his best running as the distances increase, but is that because he is a grinder without a big kick? The old veteran and defending champ Awesome Gem ran 2nd in the Cornhusker just two weeks ago and was going so well that the connections decided to audible and run here as well. Soul Candy will try to close from the back of the pack, as will invader Dark Cove. Dark Cove has won twice over the Poly at Keeneland, but his musical chair jockeys continues with his 7th straight new pilot, this time obtaining the services of top jock Rafael Bejarano.
This blog is going with Coil and Dark Cove. Coil is the class of the field in the Swaps. Dark Cove appears to have the best kick among the closers, and with the expected slow pace, it could turn into a 1/2 mile sprint for home.
Good luck this weekend folks!
Sunday, January 23, 2011
Presenting the 2011 Breeders' Cup Champion - William's Kitten
Before this blog came into existence in the spring of 2010, a bold prediction was made on the TVG Community about the 2010 Classic. In January of 2010, It was proclaimed by yours truly that Blame would win the Classic, with Zenyatta finishing underneath in the exotics. As it later panned out, I was right. Blame won, and the only horse among those who I listed to put underneath (Zenyatta) who made the race ran second. This blog thought about putting together a list of wild prophecies to try to match or surpass the success of last year. Instead, it was decided that only one claim would be made, and it would involve a horse who this blog has followed since his win back in the summer of 2009. The prediction is this: William's Kitten will win the 2011 Breeders' Cup Classic.
Who?
A few of you may know who he is, but for those who do not, let me introduce him. William's Kitten is son of multiple Grade 1 winning sire Kitten's Joy out of the Menifee mare Blush. He has run 8 times, with 2 wins, a second and a third while being trained by Michael Maker. He was bred by his owners, Ken and Sarah Ramsey, who stands his sire at stud. He is multiple graded stakes placed, with a second (behind eventual 2010 Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver) in the 2009 Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club and a third in the 2010 Grade 3 Holy Bull S. His most significant win to date was in the 2009 Sunday Silence S. at Louisiana Downs (below), where he rushed from well off the pace to an easy victory. (below)
This win was the race that caught my eye and formed the crush. I knew at that very point that he would be my Derby horse. After a couple of so-so efforts in the Grey Stakes and the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (in which I saw him in person), he went to the KJC to run a distant second to Super Saver, who ran away and hid that day. He started 2010 with his race in the Holy Bull, and looked to be going to bigger and better things. Unfortunately, he wretched an ankle in a subsequent workout. He will be sidelined for over a year by the time he makes his next start...
... which is today (1/23) in the 9th race at Gulfstream Park going a mile on the dirt. He has been working well for the return, but he does have a few gaps in his workout tab. He looks to be in tough though, since the race also marks the return of Grade 2 Louisiana Derby winner Mission Impazible. If nothing else, this will serve as a good prep race for wherever the connections decide to run him. Knowing the connections (based on their previous decisions), if William pans out like they & I hope he does, the mid-season goal is probably the Stephen Foster Handicap at Churchill Downs. Then, hopefully a fall campaign that will set him up for a winning rally from the back of the pack in the Breeders' Cup Classic come November.
So there you have it. A bold prediction that requires a big leap of faith to see it possibly happen. I could be horribly wrong, and he may just not pan out as an older horse. But isn't it more fun to take a chance on a flier and get in on the ground floor, rather then have to scramble for room on the bandwagon come November? We shall see what he does. Good luck everybody.
Who?
A few of you may know who he is, but for those who do not, let me introduce him. William's Kitten is son of multiple Grade 1 winning sire Kitten's Joy out of the Menifee mare Blush. He has run 8 times, with 2 wins, a second and a third while being trained by Michael Maker. He was bred by his owners, Ken and Sarah Ramsey, who stands his sire at stud. He is multiple graded stakes placed, with a second (behind eventual 2010 Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver) in the 2009 Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club and a third in the 2010 Grade 3 Holy Bull S. His most significant win to date was in the 2009 Sunday Silence S. at Louisiana Downs (below), where he rushed from well off the pace to an easy victory. (below)
This win was the race that caught my eye and formed the crush. I knew at that very point that he would be my Derby horse. After a couple of so-so efforts in the Grey Stakes and the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (in which I saw him in person), he went to the KJC to run a distant second to Super Saver, who ran away and hid that day. He started 2010 with his race in the Holy Bull, and looked to be going to bigger and better things. Unfortunately, he wretched an ankle in a subsequent workout. He will be sidelined for over a year by the time he makes his next start...
... which is today (1/23) in the 9th race at Gulfstream Park going a mile on the dirt. He has been working well for the return, but he does have a few gaps in his workout tab. He looks to be in tough though, since the race also marks the return of Grade 2 Louisiana Derby winner Mission Impazible. If nothing else, this will serve as a good prep race for wherever the connections decide to run him. Knowing the connections (based on their previous decisions), if William pans out like they & I hope he does, the mid-season goal is probably the Stephen Foster Handicap at Churchill Downs. Then, hopefully a fall campaign that will set him up for a winning rally from the back of the pack in the Breeders' Cup Classic come November.
So there you have it. A bold prediction that requires a big leap of faith to see it possibly happen. I could be horribly wrong, and he may just not pan out as an older horse. But isn't it more fun to take a chance on a flier and get in on the ground floor, rather then have to scramble for room on the bandwagon come November? We shall see what he does. Good luck everybody.
Saturday, November 6, 2010
Breeders' Cup Classic
"Gates closed and they're all set for the five million Breeders' Cup Classic..... and away they go, Pleasant Prince off a bit slow.
First Dude goes right to the lead, Haynesfield broke well and moving towards the front, Quality Road taking a good position down on the rail. The Japanese invader Espoir City on the outside of that along with Etched. Behind that is Musket Man, two lengths further back to Blame. Two more lengths back to Lookin at Lucky caught three-wide, with Fly Down and Paddy O'Prado inside of him. Then Pleasant Prince and finally Zenyatta is her customary last, 7 lengths back early as the past the Churchill Downs grandstand first time around...
(opening quarter 23:67)
First Dude out on the lead, not winging, but not crawling either. Espoir City tugging his way to be second. Quality Road sitting a length and half back down at the rail, with Etched and Haynesfield on his outside. Two lengths back to Musket Man and another one to Blame. Three more to the champion two year-old Lookin at Lucky and Fly Down, Paddy O'Prado behind him. Three more to Pleasant Prince and last is still Zenyatta, Zenyatta is still dead last early...
(half-mile 47:88)
First Dude is joined by Espoir City on the front end, with Quality Road getting a perfect trip down the backside in third, a length and a half back. Etched and Haynesfield are outside of him, with Musket Man four lengths back. Blame and Garrett Gomez is moving up on the inside getting closer to that leading group. The three-year old trio of Fly Down, Paddy O'Prado and Lookin at Lucky sitting 7 lengths back, Pleasant Prince and Zenyatta last, biding her time to make her run at destiny...
(3/4 in 1:11:77)
As they reach the end of the backstretch, First Dude is still on the lead, Espoir City is struggling to keep up in second. Quality Road waiting for room down at the rail. Haynesfield, Etched, Musket Man all poised to strike. Blame just behind them, with Lookin at Lucky launching a five-wide move, Fly Down, Paddy and Zenyatta is starting to uncoil her patented charge. Mike Smith looks for a path...
(1 Mile in 1:35:67)
They reach the top of the lead and suddenly the whole picture changes. Quality Road is in front, Etched and Musket Man on his outside, with Zenyatta swinging well wide. Blame looking for room at the rail and he found it! He burst to the lead, Zenyatta is rolling home on the outside, and she has dead aim on Blame! She is gaining on him, but Blame is fighting on. Zenyatta is 1/2 length back with 70 yards to go. Blame is all heart on the rail, Zenyatta is a head, a neck, she's gaining on him, they hit the wire...
and Blame has pulled the plug on the pursuit for perfection. He holds off Zenyatta by a nose. Etched, Fly Down and Musket Man three across the track for third, then back to Quality Road, Paddy O'Prado, Haynesfield, Lookin at Lucky at Lucky who didn't fire today, Espoir City, First Dude and Pleasant Prince was last."
First Dude goes right to the lead, Haynesfield broke well and moving towards the front, Quality Road taking a good position down on the rail. The Japanese invader Espoir City on the outside of that along with Etched. Behind that is Musket Man, two lengths further back to Blame. Two more lengths back to Lookin at Lucky caught three-wide, with Fly Down and Paddy O'Prado inside of him. Then Pleasant Prince and finally Zenyatta is her customary last, 7 lengths back early as the past the Churchill Downs grandstand first time around...
(opening quarter 23:67)
First Dude out on the lead, not winging, but not crawling either. Espoir City tugging his way to be second. Quality Road sitting a length and half back down at the rail, with Etched and Haynesfield on his outside. Two lengths back to Musket Man and another one to Blame. Three more to the champion two year-old Lookin at Lucky and Fly Down, Paddy O'Prado behind him. Three more to Pleasant Prince and last is still Zenyatta, Zenyatta is still dead last early...
(half-mile 47:88)
First Dude is joined by Espoir City on the front end, with Quality Road getting a perfect trip down the backside in third, a length and a half back. Etched and Haynesfield are outside of him, with Musket Man four lengths back. Blame and Garrett Gomez is moving up on the inside getting closer to that leading group. The three-year old trio of Fly Down, Paddy O'Prado and Lookin at Lucky sitting 7 lengths back, Pleasant Prince and Zenyatta last, biding her time to make her run at destiny...
(3/4 in 1:11:77)
As they reach the end of the backstretch, First Dude is still on the lead, Espoir City is struggling to keep up in second. Quality Road waiting for room down at the rail. Haynesfield, Etched, Musket Man all poised to strike. Blame just behind them, with Lookin at Lucky launching a five-wide move, Fly Down, Paddy and Zenyatta is starting to uncoil her patented charge. Mike Smith looks for a path...
(1 Mile in 1:35:67)
They reach the top of the lead and suddenly the whole picture changes. Quality Road is in front, Etched and Musket Man on his outside, with Zenyatta swinging well wide. Blame looking for room at the rail and he found it! He burst to the lead, Zenyatta is rolling home on the outside, and she has dead aim on Blame! She is gaining on him, but Blame is fighting on. Zenyatta is 1/2 length back with 70 yards to go. Blame is all heart on the rail, Zenyatta is a head, a neck, she's gaining on him, they hit the wire...
and Blame has pulled the plug on the pursuit for perfection. He holds off Zenyatta by a nose. Etched, Fly Down and Musket Man three across the track for third, then back to Quality Road, Paddy O'Prado, Haynesfield, Lookin at Lucky at Lucky who didn't fire today, Espoir City, First Dude and Pleasant Prince was last."
Tuesday, May 18, 2010
Preakness Day Wrap-up: Plenty of Blame & A Little Lucky
As the middle jewel of the Triple Crown is now in the books, the drought will continue as Super Saver could not capture the Preakness Stakes to keep alive his chances for the sport's first Triple Crown in 32 years. Lookin at Lucky finally got a clean trip, took advantage and willed his way to victory over a game First Dude, who set the pace, dropped back and came back on for 2nd.
Lucky was ridden for the 1st time by Martin Garcia, who won in his first Triple Crown race.
But this blog is going to pay a bit more attention to a race that happened about 4 hours earlier on the card. In the Grade 3 William Donald Schaefer, multiple graded stakes winner Blame made his 2010 debut. This blog is very high on this son of Arch, to the point that he is this blog's choice for who we think will be the 2010 Breeders' Cup Classic winner, which will hopefully lead to him be chosen as the 2010 Horse of the Year. The Albert Stall trainee sat off a so-so pace, split horses at the top of the lane, and won going away under s stern handride by Garrett Gomez. He broke from post 6 in this field of 7, he is the #7.
With this stylish win, he is now being pointed to the Grade 1 Stephen Foster Handicap on June 12th at Churchill Downs. Blame has already won at Churchill Downs in the past, most recently winning the Grade 2 Clark Handicap last thanksgiving weekend to close out his 3 year-old season. In this race he beat Grade 1 winners Einstein and Bullsbay (who he also defeated in the Schaefer), along with Misremembered, who this winter won the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap. He is #5.
The sky is the limit for this homebred of his owners, Adele B Dilschneider & Claiborne Farm. Hopefully he will move forward in the Stephen Foster and be one step closer to the Breeders' Cup Classic, which this year is at Churchill Downs. If he continues on his winning way this year, Horse of the Year is not out of the question. This blog waits for the second Saturday in June with bated breath. Will you?
Lucky was ridden for the 1st time by Martin Garcia, who won in his first Triple Crown race.
But this blog is going to pay a bit more attention to a race that happened about 4 hours earlier on the card. In the Grade 3 William Donald Schaefer, multiple graded stakes winner Blame made his 2010 debut. This blog is very high on this son of Arch, to the point that he is this blog's choice for who we think will be the 2010 Breeders' Cup Classic winner, which will hopefully lead to him be chosen as the 2010 Horse of the Year. The Albert Stall trainee sat off a so-so pace, split horses at the top of the lane, and won going away under s stern handride by Garrett Gomez. He broke from post 6 in this field of 7, he is the #7.
With this stylish win, he is now being pointed to the Grade 1 Stephen Foster Handicap on June 12th at Churchill Downs. Blame has already won at Churchill Downs in the past, most recently winning the Grade 2 Clark Handicap last thanksgiving weekend to close out his 3 year-old season. In this race he beat Grade 1 winners Einstein and Bullsbay (who he also defeated in the Schaefer), along with Misremembered, who this winter won the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap. He is #5.
The sky is the limit for this homebred of his owners, Adele B Dilschneider & Claiborne Farm. Hopefully he will move forward in the Stephen Foster and be one step closer to the Breeders' Cup Classic, which this year is at Churchill Downs. If he continues on his winning way this year, Horse of the Year is not out of the question. This blog waits for the second Saturday in June with bated breath. Will you?
Thursday, May 6, 2010
I'm Just Not Feeling It....
I actually struggled with writing this post as a gaggle of things (school, finances, etc) have been distracting me from the blog. But there is also a bit of apathy flowing through me about the happenings last weekend @ Churchill Downs. Part of it is from the results of the races run and the other part was my inability to correctly wager on those results. While there were some good moments, like General Quarters' owner/trainer Tom McCarthy being as giddy as a schoolgirl over his charge's victory in the Woodford Reserve, there was just no "spark" to this weekend's races for yours truly.
There was not a "wow" performance like in years past. No "Rachel demolishing the Oaks". No "Street Sense with an absolute perfect rail-skimming ride". No "Barbaro in a sublime performance". No "Orthodox shocking in the American Turf @ 45-1!". (Which this blog had singled in his pick four that paid $805) While the races themselves were exciting, none of them will be nothing but a footnote in the long run. Even with this blog hitting Atta Boy Roy @ 9-1, nothing on the wagering front inspired either due to poor betting. (No exacta, even with this blog's 3rd choice running 2nd.)
Maybe it is just this blog's "iffy" feelings for the group of horses who ran. Or maybe is the lost promise of the big "E"'s (Eskendereya, Endorsement) being taking out of the Derby picture so late. Or maybe it is just the vagaries of the game that come with the love of this sport. But whatever it is, hopefully is nothing but a brief state of melancholy that will be broken with the prospect of this blog's early (as in January, as I said here [note the date on the post]) pick for the winner of the 2010 Breeders' Cup Classic, Blame. This blog cannot wait for him to run on the Preakness undercard in the Grade 3 Schaefer. Hopefully that will be followed up with a win oir the Derby winner Super Saver in the Preakness to keep the hopes alive for the sport's first triple crown in 32 years. Hopefully by then this blog will be out of its post-Derby malaise.
There was not a "wow" performance like in years past. No "Rachel demolishing the Oaks". No "Street Sense with an absolute perfect rail-skimming ride". No "Barbaro in a sublime performance". No "Orthodox shocking in the American Turf @ 45-1!". (Which this blog had singled in his pick four that paid $805) While the races themselves were exciting, none of them will be nothing but a footnote in the long run. Even with this blog hitting Atta Boy Roy @ 9-1, nothing on the wagering front inspired either due to poor betting. (No exacta, even with this blog's 3rd choice running 2nd.)
Maybe it is just this blog's "iffy" feelings for the group of horses who ran. Or maybe is the lost promise of the big "E"'s (Eskendereya, Endorsement) being taking out of the Derby picture so late. Or maybe it is just the vagaries of the game that come with the love of this sport. But whatever it is, hopefully is nothing but a brief state of melancholy that will be broken with the prospect of this blog's early (as in January, as I said here [note the date on the post]) pick for the winner of the 2010 Breeders' Cup Classic, Blame. This blog cannot wait for him to run on the Preakness undercard in the Grade 3 Schaefer. Hopefully that will be followed up with a win oir the Derby winner Super Saver in the Preakness to keep the hopes alive for the sport's first triple crown in 32 years. Hopefully by then this blog will be out of its post-Derby malaise.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)