Fostering Thoughts of a Flat Out Upset

The older horses take the stage this weekend in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster Handicap at Churchill Downs going a mile and one-eighth. With no real leader in the older male handicap division, this is a chance for someone to seize command with a win. Eleven horses will step into the gate with the chance to get a Grade 1 win. These runners are evenly matched, with no dominate favorite among them. That is shown by the fact that the morning line favorite is at 7-2. The thoughts on this race will begin with the tepid morning line favorite Giant Oak.

#10 Giant Oak has been in the winner's circle once at Churchill Downs, but it was via the DQ in the Clark Handicap. Before that, he had a run of fourth-place finishes there, including a fourth in this race lat year. In his last start, he finished 5th in the Alysheba here 6 weeks ago, behind fellow entrants Equestrio and Regal Ransom, but ahead of Mission Impazible. He figures to make his late run from well off the pace, which could be a problem, since there is not a ton of pace. His outside post position is not an issue, and he has been training fantastically in the interim.

#6 Regal Ransom and #11 Mission Impazible figure to be the pacesetters in this race. Regal Ransom was nailed at the wire in the Alysheba by probable Hollywood Gold Cup favorite First Dude. As his passing gear is non-existent, his jockey Alan Garcia will attempt to get him to the front, then slow it down. On his flank figures to be Mission Impazible who does his best work when sitting just off the leader. He beat Giant Oak and Apart two back in the New Orleans Handicap. Other than his outside post, he figures to have a good chance. The dull effort last time out is some cause for concern though.

#2 Crown of Thorns (right) invades from the West Coast for trainer Richard Mandella with jockey Tyler Baze in tow. He won the Mervyn Leroy Handicap at Hollywood Park last out, wearing down Sidney's Candy in the final 1/16th of a mile. Mandella said that the six weeks between races was perfect timing for his charge, and he has been working steadily after his win. While he has only run on dirt once, it was off a layoff and probably a distance short then his best (at least on dirt). The way he trains over dirt and his pedigree suggests that he will be fine over it. He should have no problem with the mile and an eighth today, and figures to be sitting right behind Regal Ransom and Mission Impazible early on.

#3 Apart looks to follow the path of his stablemate last year and win the Foster after a win in the Schaefer on the Preakness undercard. Blame pulled the double for his connections, then went on to win the Breeders' Cup Classic last November. Apart won in workmanlike fashion in the Schaefer in a close finish. He was beaten multiple times over the winter by Mission Impazible and has split decisions with Giant Oak. He seems to have bounced back fine, with a couple of solid works at his Keeneland home base. This son of Flatter has all the tools to win, but the fact that he another change in rider is a bit disconcerting. His last rider, top jockey Garrett Gomez, decided to ride Blind Luck in the Vanity Handicap. While Julien Leparoux is no slouch, the fact that Gomez left

Yet none of those is the pick for the race. The pick is the co-longest shot at 30/1 on the morning line #1 Flat Out. This son of Flatter has been a blog favorite even before the existence of this blog. This blog thought that he had retired after getting hurt after the 2009 Arkansas Derby, but was pleasantly surprised when he returned to the races in December 2010. That winning effort was stymied by another layoff until Memorial Day this year, in which he ran second to the consistent old-timer Awesome Gem in the Lone Star Park Handicap, beating multiple graded stakes winners Game On Dude and Thiskyhasnolimit in the process. He popped a swift work in the interim, has a hot jockey in Corey Lanerie and figures to make his move from mid-pack. He is in light at 114 lbs., 4-9 lbs. less than any of the major contenders. While he is taking a major class hike today, and the pace set-up is not that great, at the price he figures to be, this blog is willing to take a shot.

Someone looks to take some measure of control in the handicap division with a victory in this race. A son of Flatter looks to make a mark, but not the one most think. Can Flat Out flat out cause an major upset and announce his arrival? We shall see. Good luck everybody!

Tons of Blame to go around

I know I am more than a a little late with, but thee combination of the previous post along with some other personal problems drained the creative energy from yours truly. But with the help of a brief freshening, I'm back with renewed fervor. Today's post will hopefully be the beginning of a steady series of posts for this blog. I will be aiming to keep a schedule of posting thrice-weekly, while maintaining, and hopefully improving, the quality of the posts. With that out of the way, onto sharing Blame!

When Blame crossed the wire first in the Stephen Foster, i sort of felt like a proud father after seeing his boy win something, as strange as that sounds. Blame broke from the outside post in the field of eleven in the race. He worked his way into a good stalking position, sat 3-4 lengths off the tepid pace pace, made his move going into he far turn and won by a measured 3/4 of a length over the lone speed of Battle Plan. (Unfortunately for Battle Plan, injury has ensnared him once again, and this time for good. He has been retired due to a tear in his suspensory. Stud plans have not been made yet.)
(chart here; video below)


With the win, Blame is now a Grade 1 winner, and officially enters the discussion for Horse of the Year. However, he is well behind the two front-runners, Quality Road and Zenyatta. Preparations have already begun for Blame's next race. He worked an easy 1/2 mile in 49 flat at Keeneland on Sunday June 27th. He is being pointed to Grade 1 Whitney Handicap on August 7th at Saratoga. Also being pointed to that race is the aforementioned Quality Road; I Want Revenge, who makes his return from a 15-month layoff in this Saturday's Suburban; Mine That Bird, who makes his seasonal debut in the Firecracker Handicap on grass at Churchill Downs this Sunday, after the allowance race he was being aimed for failed to fill; and Redding Colliery, who was a stylish winner of the Lone Star Handicap last out. That race should be a good one.

Now that Blame has gotten that Grade 1 win, this blog can only hope that it is just the first step to a sterling 2010 campaign, ending with another Grade 1 victory come the first Saturday in November right back there at Churchill downs in the Breeders Cup Classic.

Tanda Loses - Blame to Follow?

Many big races were ran and big events occurred last weekend, and the same will happen this weekend. Last weekend, the horse racing world was turned to Belmont Park as Drosselmeyer ground his way to a victory in the Belmont, Winchester shocked in the Manhattan and the chalk prevailed in the Just a Game and Woody Stephens, with Proviso and D'funnybone prevailing, respectively. This weekend, both of last year's Horse of the Year finalists run in separate races. The winner, Rachel Alexandra, tries to get back on the winning trail in the Grade 2 Fleur De Lis. Out west, the runner-up Zenyatta tries to keep her unblemished record spotless in the Vanity. But this blog has two favorites that we shall be discussing. First, we will recap the Acorn, with this blog's favorite filly Tanda. Then we shall preview the Stephen Foster Handicap, with this blog's choice to win the 2010 Breeders' Cup Classic Blame in the field.


The Acorn was a strangely run race, as the expected speed duel did not materialize. Instead, Champagne D'oro was able to cross and clear from the outside. She set a good, but not taxing, pace and was able to go gate to wire. Amen Hallelujah sat behind horses swung out turning for home but could not get by the winner and finished second. Our girl Tanda finished a gutsy third, considering all she had go against her. First, before the race even started, jockey Alex Solis was forced to the hospital due to high blood pressure. He turned out to be fine, and he rode the following day, guiding his mount Mandurah to a new world record for a mile on the grass at Monmouth Park. Mike Smith took over on Tanda, which this blog took as a harbinger of things to come.



The race itself was an ordeal as well. When the gate opened, Tanda broke a touch slow, though she had the chance to stay on the rail and move up to about 4th, the trip that #3 Dances with Ashley got. Instead, Mike decides to drop her back to last. This ends up costing her valuable ground the rest of the way, as she end up going 8-wide by the top of the lane. She valiantly tries to get be the leaders, but just cannot overcome her trip. Now, is Smith at fault? At first i thought so, but i will not hold a snap-decision over him when he had at most an hour to get to know Tanda. This blog just chalks it up to bad racing luck and will move on. We will celebrate that Tanda is now Grade 1 placed, which is a plus to her connections when it comes time to breed her.

Now we leave the past and look to the future, this Saturday's Grade 1 Stephen Foster. This well-matched field of 11 will be going a mile and eighth on the main track. Battle Plan was installed as the 5/2 morning line favorite. This royally bred son of Belmont winner Empire Maker out of the great mare Flanders. A lightly raced 5-year-old, he has quickly risen through the ranks, topping out a successful winter by winning the Grade 2 New Orleans Handicap. He comes in off a brief freshening and will be winging on the front end. He looks to be the main threat to Blame.

But of course, this blog's pick is Blame. This son of Arch facilely disposed of his competition in his last start 4 weeks ago, the Donald Schaefer. He has had 2 good works in the interim, with a bullet 5 furlong drill on Sunday. Garrett Gomez stays on him, forgoing mounts at the rich Monmouth meet for this race. Blame did get a little bit of a bad break by drawing the outside post #11 for the race. But this blog feels that will not be much of a hindrance. While he was installed as the 3-1 2nd choice on the morning line, many believe he will go off favored. With his partiality toward the Churchill Downs main track, his nice works since the win and the fear of a "bounce" lessened by the lack of effort it took him to win last time out, the blog backs with him confidence.

Others who could contend in this race are (in no particular order) Duke of Mischief, who won the Oaklawn Handicap last out but has been known to throw in a clunker now and then. General Quarters, who won the Grade 1 Woodford Reserve last time out and is looking to join Lava Man as the only horse to win a Grade 1 on all three surfaces (dirt, turf, synthetic). Arson Squad won the Alysheba on the Kentucky Oaks undercard here and looks for his third straight victory. Macho Again will all but forgotten in this race tomorrow, but he is the defending champion and will valiantly try to defend the title.

With all the great racing across the country, and with most of the sport's stars running this weekend, you have zero excuse not to watch, wager and (hopefully) win!

Preakness Day Wrap-up: Plenty of Blame & A Little Lucky

As the middle jewel of the Triple Crown is now in the books, the drought will continue as Super Saver could not capture the Preakness Stakes to keep alive his chances for the sport's first Triple Crown in 32 years. Lookin at Lucky finally got a clean trip, took advantage and willed his way to victory over a game First Dude, who set the pace, dropped back and came back on for 2nd.



Lucky was ridden for the 1st time by Martin Garcia, who won in his first Triple Crown race.

But this blog is going to pay a bit more attention to a race that happened about 4 hours earlier on the card. In the Grade 3 William Donald Schaefer, multiple graded stakes winner Blame made his 2010 debut. This blog is very high on this son of Arch, to the point that he is this blog's choice for who we think will be the 2010 Breeders' Cup Classic winner, which will hopefully lead to him be chosen as the 2010 Horse of the Year. The Albert Stall trainee sat off a so-so pace, split horses at the top of the lane, and won going away under s stern handride by Garrett Gomez. He broke from post 6 in this field of 7, he is the #7.



With this stylish win, he is now being pointed to the Grade 1 Stephen Foster Handicap on June 12th at Churchill Downs. Blame has already won at Churchill Downs in the past, most recently winning the Grade 2 Clark Handicap last thanksgiving weekend to close out his 3 year-old season. In this race he beat Grade 1 winners Einstein and Bullsbay (who he also defeated in the Schaefer), along with Misremembered, who this winter won the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap. He is #5.



The sky is the limit for this homebred of his owners, Adele B Dilschneider & Claiborne Farm. Hopefully he will move forward in the Stephen Foster and be one step closer to the Breeders' Cup Classic, which this year is at Churchill Downs. If he continues on his winning way this year, Horse of the Year is not out of the question. This blog waits for the second Saturday in June with bated breath. Will you?