Belmont Stakes Card Thoughts - There Shall Be Much Rejoicing

Belmont Stakes day is here, and even though there is no chance for a triple crown alive, it figures to be a good day of racing. Both the Preakness and the Derby winner show up to the Belmont, which is a rarity. The undercard is solid, with multiple Eclipse award winning Gio Ponti going in the Manhattan, multiple Grade 1 winner Turbulent Descent in the Acorn and some tough races to handicap. Let's get to right to the stakes action, starting with the first stake on the docket.

Grade 1 TVG Acorn Stakes - 1 mile - 3yo fillies

The only question in this blog's mind is by how many lengths will #2 Turbulent Descent (right) win. She is the classiest horse in the field, she has been training great, she can adapt to any situation and she looks to flourish at this one-turn mile. The horse she will have to catch is #3 Savvy Supreme, who will be winging on the lead. While she is fast, she is stretching out two whole furlongs and is taking a big step up in class to graded stakes for the first time. The only other graded stakes winner in the field is #5 Victoria's Wildcat, who rode the closer-friendly track and insane fractions to victory in the Grade 3 Eight Belles S. at Churchill Downs on Oaks day. Honestly, Turbulent Descent should roll over this field, with Victoria's Wildcat being the best of the rest, several lengths back.

The Play:
Exacta 2/5; Trifecta 2/5/ALL

Grade 2 True North Handicap - 6 furlongs - 3yo & up

This blog decided that this race was not for him in any way, shape or form. This race will not be played at all other than a single of the favorite #3 Trappe Shot in the "lotto" Pick 6 ticket. Trappe Shot comes into this race off a win, defeating both D'Funnybone and Rule by Night (who are also in the race). He has two steady maintenance drills since the last race and he has a good chance to get his first graded stakes win of his career. If the budget allowed it, the entry would be used, and it is the the main danger. D'Funnybone comes in third off the layoff after running second to Trappe Shot last time after setting the pace almost the hole way. He figures to be doing the same once again today, with his entry-mate This One For Phil looking to take advantage if 'D' can't finish the job. He won his first race in 14 months last time out, has put in two solid works and looks to win his first graded stakes outright, after being put up via DQ in his only other stakes start.

The Play:
For multi-race purposes only, 1/1a & 3

Grade 2 Woody Stephens S - 7 Furlongs - 3yo

Another competitive race as three year old sprinters hook up going 7/8ths. Very tepid choice top choice is #5 Arch Traveler. This son of Sky Mesa bounced back on the winning trail after a poor effort in the Florida Derby at a distance that was not his optimal. Cutting back to a one-turn race last time out, he easily won an overnight stake handily. He has two smart works since the race, and will offer a little value to the favorite as the second choice. The other being used is the favorite #1 Travelin Man, who was against a speed bias in the Derby Trial and cuts back a furlong and #7 J J's Lucky Train, who comes back after an okay 3rd in the aforementioned Derby Trial, where he may have bounced after coming back in 3 weeks while shipping to Churchill.

The Play:
For the Pick 4: #1, #5, #7

Grade 1 Foxwoods Just A Game Handicap - 1 mile (turf) - 3yo & up fillies and mares

This is where this blog takes a stand with a 12/1 shot who is the co-2nd longest shot on the board in #8 Much Rejoicing. This daughter of Distorted Humor won her turf debut last time out at 6f here at Belmont in nice fashion. Being a daughter of BC F&M Turf winner Soaring Softly, it is not much of shock she taken to the surface. She has been best around one turn in her career. This is the first time she has ever strung together three races in her career, she is training well and looks primed to cause some tote damage at long odds. The favorite will probably be #2 Aviate, who this blog like in the CD Turf Mile last time out. Her connections won this race last year with Proviso. She has had two solid works since her win and looks tough, but how will she take to the one turn? #6 Fantasia finished third in the race Aviate comes out of last time. She finished fifth in this race last year, but her only win in the states was at this distance around one turn at Woodbine on a yielding course. If the chance of rain proves true, a less-than-firm course would do her well. #1 Gypsy's Warning is the only grade one winner in the field, but she ran a flat 7th behind Fantasia in the Jenny Wiley in April. If she wins, maybe it is sign to come for her connections, the same as Animal Kingdom.

The Play:
Large percentage of bankroll win bet on #8, single in P4

Grade 1 Woodford Reserve Manhattan Handicap - 1m 1/4 (turf) - 3yo and up

Multiple Eclipse Award winner #4 Gio Ponti looks to bounce back from another close loss in the Dubai World Cup and get his second victory in the race. He won in 2009, and finished 2nd last year. He seems to have bounced back better than last year from his overseas adventure, with four good works. #6 Viscount Nelson invades from over the pond for trainer Aidan O'Brien. He won just 8 days ago in Europe, but has a class advantage over the rest, finishing last year within a handful of lengths of Twice Over and Canford Cliffs, some of the top Euro horses. #7 Prince Will I Am was one of the few three year olds to be older in a graded stakes last year. He stretches back out after a fast-closing 5th in the Woodford Reserve on the Churchill Downs undercard. Many will use him, but this blog will not because of budget constraints.

The play:
Pick 4 purposes: #4 & #6

Grade 1 Belmont Stakes - 1m & 1/2 - 3yo

The first question to figure out is whether or not #12 Shackleford can last the twelve furlongs under these conditions. While this blog will hedge and say yes, he probably cannot based on his pedigree. #1 Master of Hounds is the wiseguy horse, and has been bet down in the early wagering. #9 Animal Kingdom ran a fast-closing second to Shackleford in the Preakness after winning the Derby. He should have no problem with the distance based on his long-winded pedigree. He is another we shall use on top as more of a hedge than a pick. #2 Stay Thirsty is the pick to inherit the lead if/when Shackleford gives up the lead. All of these four will be used on top of #9 Nehro in the exacta, as he fits the pattern of other previous 2nd-place finishers in the Derby who head directly to the Belmont.

The Play:
Exacta #1, #2, #9, #12 / #6

Pick 4 ticket starting with the Woody Stephens: 1,5,7 / 8 / 4,6 / 1,2,9,12
Good luck everybody!

Tanda Loses - Blame to Follow?

Many big races were ran and big events occurred last weekend, and the same will happen this weekend. Last weekend, the horse racing world was turned to Belmont Park as Drosselmeyer ground his way to a victory in the Belmont, Winchester shocked in the Manhattan and the chalk prevailed in the Just a Game and Woody Stephens, with Proviso and D'funnybone prevailing, respectively. This weekend, both of last year's Horse of the Year finalists run in separate races. The winner, Rachel Alexandra, tries to get back on the winning trail in the Grade 2 Fleur De Lis. Out west, the runner-up Zenyatta tries to keep her unblemished record spotless in the Vanity. But this blog has two favorites that we shall be discussing. First, we will recap the Acorn, with this blog's favorite filly Tanda. Then we shall preview the Stephen Foster Handicap, with this blog's choice to win the 2010 Breeders' Cup Classic Blame in the field.


The Acorn was a strangely run race, as the expected speed duel did not materialize. Instead, Champagne D'oro was able to cross and clear from the outside. She set a good, but not taxing, pace and was able to go gate to wire. Amen Hallelujah sat behind horses swung out turning for home but could not get by the winner and finished second. Our girl Tanda finished a gutsy third, considering all she had go against her. First, before the race even started, jockey Alex Solis was forced to the hospital due to high blood pressure. He turned out to be fine, and he rode the following day, guiding his mount Mandurah to a new world record for a mile on the grass at Monmouth Park. Mike Smith took over on Tanda, which this blog took as a harbinger of things to come.



The race itself was an ordeal as well. When the gate opened, Tanda broke a touch slow, though she had the chance to stay on the rail and move up to about 4th, the trip that #3 Dances with Ashley got. Instead, Mike decides to drop her back to last. This ends up costing her valuable ground the rest of the way, as she end up going 8-wide by the top of the lane. She valiantly tries to get be the leaders, but just cannot overcome her trip. Now, is Smith at fault? At first i thought so, but i will not hold a snap-decision over him when he had at most an hour to get to know Tanda. This blog just chalks it up to bad racing luck and will move on. We will celebrate that Tanda is now Grade 1 placed, which is a plus to her connections when it comes time to breed her.

Now we leave the past and look to the future, this Saturday's Grade 1 Stephen Foster. This well-matched field of 11 will be going a mile and eighth on the main track. Battle Plan was installed as the 5/2 morning line favorite. This royally bred son of Belmont winner Empire Maker out of the great mare Flanders. A lightly raced 5-year-old, he has quickly risen through the ranks, topping out a successful winter by winning the Grade 2 New Orleans Handicap. He comes in off a brief freshening and will be winging on the front end. He looks to be the main threat to Blame.

But of course, this blog's pick is Blame. This son of Arch facilely disposed of his competition in his last start 4 weeks ago, the Donald Schaefer. He has had 2 good works in the interim, with a bullet 5 furlong drill on Sunday. Garrett Gomez stays on him, forgoing mounts at the rich Monmouth meet for this race. Blame did get a little bit of a bad break by drawing the outside post #11 for the race. But this blog feels that will not be much of a hindrance. While he was installed as the 3-1 2nd choice on the morning line, many believe he will go off favored. With his partiality toward the Churchill Downs main track, his nice works since the win and the fear of a "bounce" lessened by the lack of effort it took him to win last time out, the blog backs with him confidence.

Others who could contend in this race are (in no particular order) Duke of Mischief, who won the Oaklawn Handicap last out but has been known to throw in a clunker now and then. General Quarters, who won the Grade 1 Woodford Reserve last time out and is looking to join Lava Man as the only horse to win a Grade 1 on all three surfaces (dirt, turf, synthetic). Arson Squad won the Alysheba on the Kentucky Oaks undercard here and looks for his third straight victory. Macho Again will all but forgotten in this race tomorrow, but he is the defending champion and will valiantly try to defend the title.

With all the great racing across the country, and with most of the sport's stars running this weekend, you have zero excuse not to watch, wager and (hopefully) win!

Belmont Stakes Undercard Selections - It's Tanda Time!

Saturday brings a collection of graded stakes to fill out the undercard of the Belmont Stakes. This stakes run the gamut from 6 furlongs on the dirt to a mile and 1/4 on the turf. With this card, the end of the Triple Crown trail come about. It has a trail full of joy, pain and frustration. Let us go out with a victory!

Last blog, I wrote out my Belmont thoughts and selections here. Now, here are the other five stakes on the card, plus some thoughts on how to attack the $1,000,000 guaranteed pools. Let's start with the smallest field of the pick 6 and the 1st stake on the card.

Race 6 - Grade 2 Woody Stephens S. - 7 furlongs

This is a compact field of 5 that goes today. #1 Eightyfiveinafifty looks to be the quickest of the quick in here, but can he handle the pace pressure. #3 Discreetly Mine has a fair amount of speed, but might attempt to track just off of 85ina50. #5 D'funnybone is the selection because he will be just off the pace, harassing the leaders and then drawing clear late. The only horse i could see shocking the field is #4 Thank U Philippe. He will attempt to close into the expected fast pace, but he must answer the class question once again under new jock Garrett Gomez.

Selections:
#5 D'Funnybone
#4 Thank U Philippe
#1 Eightyfiveinafifty

Race 7 - Grade 1 Just A Game Stakes - 1 mile (turf)

This field of 6, with 5 betting interests, has a strong favorite in #5 Proviso. Last out she beat males in the grade 1 Kilroe Mile at Santa Anita. But this blog likes the chances of two horses, both who are the part of the same entry, to pull the upset. #1 Cherokee Queen & #1a Speak East Gal ship up from South Florida for trainer Marty Wolfson. CQ will be sitting 3-4 lengths behind her stablemate, hoping to improve 2nd off the brief freshening after her win last time out. SEG appears to have a chance to steal this race gate to wire and at worse gives her stablemate a target to run at.

Selections:
#1 Cherokee Queen / #1a Speak Easy Gal
#5 Proviso

Race 8 - Grade 2 True North Handicap - 6 furlongs
This blog was thrown for a loop this morning as the top selection, Custom for Carlos, was scratched moments before this blog went to post. This race has become an admitted scramble to us, and will probably force the hand in the multi-race exotics to be rather aggressive in the later races. #10 Gato Go Win tries dirt once again after two failed attempts. But this blog is willing to give him another chance due to the fact that the circumstances surrounding his two dirt starts probably hurt his chances. First, he was forced to audible into the Derby Trial after being scratched the morning of the Bay Shore due to his previous trainer's actions in the detention barn. Then, while being off for two months, he underwent a trainer change and then ran, in which something happened because he was off for 7 months after that. Now at 4, he has ran twice, has found a new rating gear and just missed out in the Grade 2 Portero Grande Hcp. last time out. Freshened, has been working well and drags Mike Smith across the country to ride him are all the reason this blog needs to see. #7 Elusive Warning ran well last time out at Delaware, gets his preferred distance of 6 furlongs and looks to try graded stakes company again. He brings a bullet drill in tow from the last work and looks to strike from just off the pace. Others with a shot are #3 Bribon, cutting back from his usual distance of a mile, #5 Snapshot, looking to improve 2nd off the layoff and #8 Checklist, who looks to wire this field.

Selections:
#10 Gato Go Win
#7 Elusive Warning

Race 9 - Grade 1 Acorn S. - One Mile

For those of you who follow this blog, you know that I have been waiting, wanting, begging and pleading for #2 Tanda to run in this spot. Well, the adage be careful what you wish for rings true, as this is a tough field of 12 she has to contend with. Since Tanda's last win in the Railbird Stakes at Hollywood Park, she has worked well with the same 3 work pattern before her last start. She should have no problem with distance or the surface, but she does face some problems breaking from down on the inside. If she can overcome that and this cast, like I thing she will, she will get her picture taken. Three horses are the main danger. #8 Much Rejoicing is a lightly raced filly, with only two starts to he credit. Both were winning efforts, the works are steady and she retains jockey Alan Garcia. #6 Amen Hallelujah is cutting back in distance from her two failed attempts to go 1m & 1/8th. She get back to a better distance, looks to have bounced back okay with those works and picks up top jockey Ramon Dominguez, with Julien Leparoux on the sidelines with an injury. #5 Streaker is another who is lightly raced. She has a win over the track, is well-bred (a half to Pine Island) and appears to have a load of ability. It is rare for a Phipps Stable/McGaughey horse to win 1st time out, so the fact that she did proves she could be a star in the making. A horse she defeated two-back, Acting Happy, came back to win the Grade 1 Black-Eyed Susan.

Selections:
#2 Tanda
#8 Much Rejoicing
#6 Amen Hallelujah
#5 Streaker

Race 10 - Grade 1 Manhattan Handicap - 1m & 1/4 (turf)
Last year's winner #1 Gio Ponti has returned from a good effort in Dubai to defend his crown. He has only worked twice since and this blog think he is a use on the tickets, but just barely. The top choice is #3 Pinckney Hill. This son of A.P Indy should sit just off the pace on the stretchout. He lost to horse-for-course Mambo Meister last time out in the Grade 3 Miami Mile, but that may have been at a less than optimum distance. PH has worked will in the interim ans is trained by the always dangerous Angel Penna. #2 Strike A Deal and #9 Just As Well are tow horses that this blog has a tendency to mix up. Both this veteran turf horses are coming into this race off finishing 1st & 2nd, respectively, in the Grade 2 Dixie last time out. SaD looks to move up off a top effort. He can stalk or be on the lead, but one wonders how much last time out took out of him. JaW comes into the race third off the layoff and looks primed for a good effort. He picks up jockey Kent Desormeaux with regular rider Leparoux on the sidelines. Other to consider are #8 Grand Couturier, #11 Expansion and the aforementioned #1 Gio Ponti, if only on back class alone.

Selections:
#3 Pinckney Hill
#9 Just As Well
#2 Strike A Deal


To see the Belmont thoughts, click here.

This blog has been thrown for a loop with the scratch of Custom for Carlos, so the only suggestion i can make (besides singling Tanda) in the multi-race exotics is to take a stand on the horse you like the most and the horse you think will offer the most value. For this blog, that would be singling Pinckney Hill along with Tanda in the Pick 4. However, don't force the single. While i like the entry to pull the upset in the Just A Game, i wouldn't force the single there just so I can get beat by a favorite that i respect immensely.

So with that, i wish you all good luck, good betting and hopefully there will be a glory walk to the IRS window in your future.

Tan-da! Tan-da! Tan-da!

This weekend we witnessed another sterling performance by the best three year old filly no one knows about: Tanda. She won the Grade 3 Railbird Stakes at Hollywood Park on Sunday. While she was the high weight of 121 and the morning line 5-2 favorite, she ended up going off as the 2-1 second choice in a field of 9, holding off 9-5 post time favorite Switch down the lane by a measured half length.



This daughter of Sweetsouthernsaint, out of the Dr. Caton mare Doc's Stormy Girl, has put together a 3 race winning streak, and has a lifetime record of 6-4-1-0 under trainer Dan Hendricks. She started this streak by winning a race on March 5th at Santa Anita going down the hillside turf course. She then stepped up to graded stakes company in the Grade 3 Santa Paula Stakes on March 28th on the Pro-Ride going 6 1/2 furlongs. Sitting off a hot pace, she won going away as the 5.90-1 longest shot on the board in the field of 5.



The sky may be the limit for Tanda. With Alex Solis willing to travel back across the country form his new base in Kentucky for her, she clearly is well thought of by the connections. She is so well thought of that she is being considered for the Grade 1 Acorn on June 5th, on the Belmont Stakes undercard. Wherever the #3 filly in the country (in this blog's opinion before today's events and certainly still after) goes to, we hope that you will pay a bit more attention to this possible future star in the making.