The Best Ride Last Weekend Almost No One Saw

Last weekend, while the eyes of the horse racing nation were on Churchill Downs, Hollywood Park ran the Grade 2 Mervyn Leroy Handicap. The race went off at the same time as the Churchill Distaff Turf Mile Stakes on the Kentucky Derby undercard, so very few saw this race. This four horse race featured multiple graded stakes winner Sidney's Candy. With only four horses in the field, Sidney figured to get an easy lead under rider Alonso Quinonez and go gate-to-wire. But that did not happen. Why?

Many jockeys these days are afraid of going after the lone speed in a race, trying to avoid a speed duel. We even witnessed this in the Kentucky Derby, where all the speed pulled back, allowing Shackleford to get an easy lead and hang on for 4th. They fear that trying to apply some pressure to the speed horse will cause their mount to go too fast and lose the race. But it is that pressure that is key to preventing a gate-to-wire winner. Tyler Baze provides a textbook definition to why this is true on his ride of Crown of Thorns in the Mervyn Leroy.

After Sidney's Candy gets an easy first quarter in 24:05, it looks like this will be another merry-go-round race where they don't catch him. Crown of Thorns is sitting a little more than a length and a half off of him, not applying any real pressure. But as they reach the 6 furlong pole, Tyler makes the tactical decision in moving Crown of Thorns onto Sidney's flank, sitting just a length off.


This causes Sidney to go through the second quarter in a much quicker 23:17. Tyler keeps Crown of Thorns right off of Sidney's Candy through that acceleration for that quarter mile, preventing Sidney from getting separation. Like many speed horses, those easy middle fractions are key to going gate-to-wire. Tyler knows this, and is still on Sidney's flank with a 1/2 mile to go.


By the time they hit the stretch, Sidney does not have that needed separation on his main foe. Tyler is able to grind his way past on Crown of Thorns to an eventual length and a half victory. This tactical race ride is the key to this victory. This blog applauds Tyler Baze for the savvy ride, and hope that his comeback from the DL is filled with many more stakes wins.

Here's the full replay of the race:


This race is a template in showing how applying pressure, but not engaging in a speed duel, is key to undoing the chances of a gate-to-wire threat on paper. In-race tactics are what separate the mediocre riders from those who you can have faith in putting your last two dollars on. Good luck on your future wagers.

Strub Stakes Day

This Saturday bring us 3 graded stakes to Santa Anita, all local preps for major races one month from now on Big Cap day. First up will be the Grade 1 Las Virgenes at a mile, which is a prep for the Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks. Next up is the Grade 3 Thunder Road at a mile on the grass, which is the prep for the Grade 1 Frank E. Kilroe Mile. Finally, the Strub series will finish up with the Grade 2 Strub Stakes, the last chance for 4 year olds to stay within their own age group before taking on older in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap. Let's kick off the stakes action with the only Grade 1 on today's card, the Las Virgenes.

The 4th race on the card, the Las Virgenes brings together a field of 6 (7 entered, but Bluegrass Chatter was a program scratch). This race marks the 2011 debut of Turbulent Descent, who capped off her 2010 with a win the Grade 1 Hollywood Starlet. She has been training smartly across town at her Hollywood Park home base, finishing off her preparations with a bullet 5 furlong work on 1/30. Going against her today is the winner of the Grade 3 Santa Ysabel May Day Rose and the 1-2-3 finishers of the Grade 2 Santa Ynez California Nectar, Zazu and Plum Pretty. May Day Rose cuts back a 1/16th of a mile off her win, and will be winging on the front end. California Nectar is running her third race and stakes win of the meet, and will be looking for her first win at a route of ground. Zazu has finished second to both CA Nectar and Zazu, and will look to avenge both. If Turbulent Descent can take to dirt, the rest look to be running for second.

4 races later, older males face-off in the Thunder Road Handicap. The field includes grade 1 winners Fluke and Victor's Cry. The surprising entrant is Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile winner Dakota Phone. He was expected to run in the San Antonio Handicap tomorrow, but the way the dirt is playing has apparently forced the hand of the connections to use this as a prep race for the Big Cap. The Cal-bred Colgan's Chip will once again try open company, hoping to take this field wire-to-wire while cutting back to a flat mile. This blog does not have a good feeling for this race, so all he will say is that Dakota Phone is a play against at short odds. While he is 1-for-5 on the grass, the shape of the race and the shorter turf stretch will play against him.

The final race of the day is the Strub Stakes. Former recent winners of the race are multiple Grade 1 winners Rock Hard Ten and Medaglia d'Oro. The heavy favorite, and rightfully so in this blog opinion, is Twirling Candy (right). Off his track-record effort in the Grade 1 Malibu, he stretches out once again and comes in with some sparkling works. He appears to be clearly the class of the field and could be a monster in the making. The only worry is that his two starts going a mile and an eighth have been "adventurous". This blog is intrigued by a new shooter invading from the east, Honour the Deputy. This recent private purchase is now in the Hollendorfer barn and apparently adjusted well to SoCal based on his works. With the rather uninspiring lot lined up here besides TC, he is this blog's choice to surprise and get up for second. This blog is taking a stand against any horse that comes out of the Grade 2 San Fernando Stakes.

Today will be a solid day of racing out at the Great Race Place, and hopefully will see some star worthy performances. Good luck everybody!

Opening Day Wrap-Up

Opening day at Santa Anita went as well one could have hoped when it came to the racing. There were fast times, large fields and most importantly, every horse came back safe and sound.

The track was lightning quick (as expected) and fast times were abound. After the first couple of races were the jockeys were feeling out the track (and riding the race like they would on the synthetic), the 4th race featured a blowout winner and maybe a future star in The Factor. He was massively hyped before his first race (down to a ridiculous 60/1 on the Kentucky Derby future books) before running off the board. He came back with a vengeance on Sunday, setting a track record for 6 furlongs. While his pedigree doesn't exactly scream a mile and a quarter, as of now, he has a tremendous upside.

After that sparkling performance, the stakes action kicked off with the Cal Breeders Champions Stakes. Heavy favorite Arresting Officer failed to run to his odds, as he was upset by Thirtyfirststreet. This Cal-bred son of freshman sire Good Journey rallied from well off the pace for the victory. Past winners have gone on to graded stakes glory, such as Preakness winner Snow Chief, multiple grade 1 winner General Challenge, both who won this race on their way to Santa Anita Derby glory, and multiple grade 1 wins after that. The winner's pedigree says that the distance will not be a problem for the SA Derby, but is the horse fast enough? The time was good, not great, for the 7 furlong distance (1:22:20). Not overly fast (compared to most of the card), but a good building block race nonetheless.

The graded stakes action kicked off with the Grade 1 La Brea. Switch came off of a strong 2nd place finish in the BC F&M Sprint in her last race. The trainer of Champagne D'Oro had been talking her up all week, and she definitely looked the part in the paddock. Malibu Pier was the buzz horse all week. But Switch turned the lights off on the field with a scintillating run to win the race by 4 widening lengths. Malibu Pier rallied for second and Champagne D'Oro finished well, well back. Her time (1:20:33) was just three tenths of the then track record, and was a harbinger for what was to come later on in the card. Switch's connections now face an interesting dilemma on what her next race will be. She could continue in the La Canada series and go next in the Grade 2 El Encino S. on 1/16, or she could stay at the distance and run in the Grade 1 Santa Monica H. on 1/30. A tough decision indeed.

In the next race, a scratched down field of five ran in the Grade 3 Sir Beaufort S. (could be reinstated back at Grade 2 depending on the GSC), which was run on the main track instead of the turf. Sidney's Candy was the heavy favorite, appeared to be the lone speed in the race, and just blew the doors off his opponents early, winning in wire-to-wire fashion. Now, while the win was visually impressive, Sidney was beating up on a field who would struggle to compete against grade 3 competition. All this race reinforced is that when Sidney is given a clear lead, he will kick on. Now, when he faces a field filled with other quality speed.pressers, can he hang on? Or will he fold quickly?


The last graded stakes race on the card was the Grade 1 Malibu Stakes. Alcindor was the hype horse, who only had two starts but did them in style. Smiling Tiger came off a 3rd in the Breeders' Cup Sprint and was looking to lock down Eclipse Award finalist status in both the Sprint and 3yo male divisions. Twirling Candy (pictured) was looking to rebound after a disastrous run in his previous start. Noble's Promise invaded from the east and would go off favored. Smiling Tiger harangued Alcindor through the first half-mile and put him away turning for home. ST dug deep, trying to hold on, but Twirling Candy loomed up and just went by him in the final few strides. In the process, they both broke Spectacular Bid's 30 year old track record. This blog is the first to admit that the track was blazing fast, and if Bid had run on it, he might have gone 1:19 flat. Still, don't take away from the effort that these two horses put up in the race. Twirling Candy looks to be a force to be reckoned with in the older male division, and he is dangerous on both dirt and turf.

What did we learn on opening day? Speed, especially run-away-and-hide speed, can and will be a usable tool once again in Southern California; Switch looks to be a major contender to vacated older female throne; Twirling Candy is a fast horse; and maybe, just maybe, we saw the arrival of a future superstar. Now let's hope the rest of the meet is this good...

P.S. This post was delayed due to computer issues, and I apologize for its tardiness.

A Few Odds and Ends - BC Style

With the announcement of pre-entries tomorrow for the Breeders' Cup, the horse racing nation waits with bated breath for them to come out. This blog just has a few thoughts to say before we start to dive into the rich, meaty juiciness that is the Breeders' Cup past performances.

• The sale for Breeders' Cup Mile-bound Sidney's Candy still has not been finalized. One wonders what is holding it up, and whether the Craigs will still be the owners come post time.
• The decision to put the Turf Sprint as the start of the Pick 6 still boggles the mind. Why would the powers that be put a race that looks to be easier to solve than the Dirt Mile is beyond me. Maybe this was an appeasement to those who prefer turf, now that the Pick 6 is once again evenly split between main track races and grass races.
• How is possible that Calvin Borel aka Calvin Bo-rail aka Saint Calvin of Churchill still has not been publicly announced on a horse for the Classic? It is inconceivable to consider that he would not have a mount in the Classic, let alone every single dirt race the entire weekend.
• This blog wonders what the track will be like, since there is no precipitation predicted to fall between now and the Breeders' Cup in Louisville. Will the track be a repeat of 2000, when it was veritable parking lot? Or maybe 2006, when the rail was a great place to be?
• If you would like the chime on what you think the morning line would be for the Classic, post it here and join in with the others below.

The La Jolla Handicap: The New Kid in Town

Another great weekend of racing is upon us at Del Mar. This weekend's features are a couple of interesting stakes going a route of ground over the Jimmy Durante turf course. On Saturday, 3 year olds go a mile and a sixteenth in the Grade 2 La Jolla Handicap. On Sunday, older fillies and mares go a mile and an eighth in Grade 2 John C Mabee Handicap. Let's start with the boys in the La Jolla. The next post will be on the Mabee.

Grade 2 La Jolla Handicap - 1m & 1/16th (turf)

#1 Leroy's Dynameaux R Bejarano 118 9/2
#2 Sidney's Candy J Rosario 121 7/5
#3 Macias M Garcia 118 8/1
#4 Summer Movie V Espinoza 116 12/1
#5 Kid Edward (IRE) D R Flores 115 9/2
#6 Face and an Ace B Blanc 115 30/1
#7 Golden Itiz P A Valenzuela 118 4/1
#8 Alphie's Bet M E Smith 119 12/1

The morning line favorite is #3 Sidney's Candy. This son of Candy Ride was last seen being narrowly defeated in the Grade 2 Swaps Stakes over the Cushion Track at Hollywood Park. Today is his first start over the turf. His sire was the undefeated multiple graded stakes winning Candy Ride, who won both on the main track and the turf. He is a speed horse, and that has been a detriment on this course, as less than 15% of those who were on or near the lead have won. He will also have company up front by # 3 Macias and maybe #6 Face and an Ace. Macias is a speedball who will go as far and as fast as he can go, with no chance of rating. Can Sidney clear Macias? Can he rate effectively? This blog says "No" on both parts.

The pick is #5 Kid Edward (IRE). This son of globe-trotting multiple Group 1 winner Singspiel is lightly raced with only three starts. Last out, he cleared his 1st allowance condition with a stylish win over this course opening week. He has a couple of steady maintenance works in the interim and is one of only two who has won at the distance on the grass. When he broke his maiden two starts back at the beginning of the Santa Anita meet, this blog thought he had a chance to be the best three year old on the grass out here in Southern California. Nothing he did in his last race has changed the opinion of him.

The reason that this blog was so high on Kid Edward was that the day he broke his maiden, his race was a split of the same condition. Another race with the same conditions was run as the 8th race on the same card. 7 horses came out of the two races combined to face off at the same level a month later. Only one of the horses who came from the 2nd split of the race beat a horse from the 1st split. Furthermore, the only horse in the field who did not come out of one of those races ran 2nd. Going forward throughout the meet, this weakness continued to show in the division with many horses coming over from the main track to beat the top grass horses. Every stake run at a mile or further on the grass for 3 yo in Southern California this year has been won by a "new shooter". Horses such as Line of David, Make Music For Me, Leroy's Dynameaux and Alphie's Bet would routinely win. Then, other horses who had not run against these fields continued the trend, even at the allowance level. #4 Summer Movie came off the layoff to easily beat the best n1x horses on the grounds. This group of 3yo has parity and is ripe for the taking.

This blog will be betting Kid Edward to win, and then playing some exotics with Sidney's Candy, Summer Movie and Leroy's Dynameaux underneath. No matter what, this is shaping up to be a competitive race. Good luck everybody.

Ten's 10 for the Derby - A Salty Crop? Or Very Sweet?

After the (not so) shocking result of the Lexington Stakes, we have the Derby field set, save a last-ditch effort by 85ina50 and Pleasant Prince to break in. But who really has a chance? Here are my final thoughts on the top ten, with a rating on their chances of winning the Derby on the "chocolate-covered pickle" rating scale.

1. Eskendereya
All systems are go for this son of Giant's Causeway. He arrived today in Louisville and looked like a horse on a mission. Will he be the one to break the Pletcher "Derby Donut"?
Rating: 9 pickles out of 10.






2. Endorsement
The Sunland Derby winner has been getting some major buzz lately, and there is a chance he will end up being the "steam" horse come May 1. His first work back was a swift 4f in 46 & 4 12 days after his victory. He then worked 8 days later in company 5f in 1:01 & 2 on the 17th. Looks like all systems are go.
Rating: 8 pickles out of 10.



3. Looking At Lucky
The 2-year-old champ was roughed up in his last prep, the Santa Anita Derby but bounced back quickly from it and looked great galloping in the mornings before he shipped out to Louisville this week.
Rating: 7 pickles out of 10.



4. Ice Box
The Florida Derby winner worked at Churchill Downs on the 16th in 48 & 2 for 4 furlongs for the 6th best work on the day. He hopes to capitalize on the wicked pace expected on Derby day. But is he fast enough to get there?
Rating: 5 pickles out of 10



5. Awesome Act
The Gotham winner got crushed by the #1 on this list last time out in the Wood, but the there is hope. The trainer said that he was not at his best, and that the plan is on schedule. He worked today a nice 6 furlongs in 1:12 & 3, tying for the best work with Oaks contender Tidal Pool. He may bounce back, but is that enough to make up the 9 & 3/4 lengths on #1?
Rating: 5 pickles out of 10



6. Mission Impazible
The Louisiana Derby winner arrived on the plane with the others Pletcher platoon today. This forgotten member of the group is one of the few who can pass horses. But will his tendency to be stalk just off the pace leave him with no punch come the top of the lane?
Rating: 4 pickles out of 10



7. Super Saver
The Arkansas Derby runner-up gets his spot on this high on the list only because he is this blog's choice for the horse most likely to "end up" in the trifecta, as he will just "end up" having the lead at the mile pole. Will he be the last speed horse standing and then hang on another two furlongs?
Rating: 3 pickles out of 10



8. Devil May Care
The filly who is nothing more than a maybe cracks this list because stylistically she has a just a good a chance as any after the top three. She can sit off the pace, but will not be so far back that she would have to invent a trip. Her win in the Bonnie Miss was just as good as Ice Box's win. Same perfect set-up too. But she made the lead much earlier than her male counterpart, which is a plus on Derby Day, when the "wall of sound" strikes at the quarter pole in the stretch.
Rating: 3 pickles out of 10.



9. Paddy O'Prado
The runner up in the Blue Grass Stakes sat just off the pace set by Odysseus and hung in for 2nd against the perfect trip winner Stately Victor. While he can be pass horses, will he handle dirt? His connections hope he can be like another son of El Prado who could, Medaglia D'Oro.
Rating: 2 pickles out of 10



10. Sidney's Candy
The Santa Anita Derby winner is on this list only because I needed a 9th horse and he was the best of the rest. Everyone is saying that he can rate off the pace or just go to the lead and keep going. But with Conveyance, Line of David and American Lion plus maybe Rule being sent straight to the lead, there is no way he will make it gate-to-wire. About him rating? The horse he sat off of and passed, Oceanographer, is still a maiden. He was caught going 5 and 1/2 furlongs by Distorted Dave, who was a 1st time starter, bred to go two turns & a casualty on the Derby trail. Sidney did not pass Oceanographer, Oceanographer backed up pass him.
Rating: 1 pickle out of 10.



There it is. Will this list be even close to Derby Day? Who knows. But if it nothing else, it is the debut of something that will be remembered: the chocolate-covered pickle rating system!