Showing posts with label Hollywood Park. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hollywood Park. Show all posts
Friday, May 4, 2012
Kentucky Derby Thoughts and Other Picks & Thoughts
With the Kentucky Derby less than 24 hours, the build-up is about to explode everywhere. This blog cannot wait for all the fast racing with huge competitive fields in the Derby and the undercard, plus the other good racing around the country. Let get to some thoughts and picks.
For my detail thoughts on the Kentucky Derby, please visit the Thorofan's Handicapper's Corner, where I eliminate horse after horse until I find the winner. (Short version, I like Daddy Nose Best barely over I'll Have Another, with Creative Cause, Alpha, Gemologist the only three I can see winning.). I sent that along on to the fine folks there at Thorofan on Wednesday night, but since then I have had some second thoughts. After taking another look over the past performances, my thoughts on one horse in particular has drastically changed. For most of the last three weeks since the Arkansas Derby, I had been high on Sabercat to snatch a piece of the exotics at worst, with an outside chance to win. But on the last look, I realized that he his performance looked much better than it probably was in real life. The horse did make up ground late in the stretch, but his closing kick was not as good as it seems. The rest of the field chased after Bode and ran themselves into such vulnerability that Sabercat was able to pick them off. The fact that he could not get by the distance challenged Secret Circle is proof that his closing kick was an optical illusion. Maybe he can pick off 4th, but I no longer think he can hit the board.
For even more thoughts on each horse in the Derby field, take a look at Paul Mazur's blog over at Chicago Now He and I go back and forth over the chances of the field, disagree over his pick and drop a Simpsons reference that I have been haunted by ever since a certain member of the field won the Breeders' Futurity back in October.
Some quick-and-dirty picks for the stakes on the Derby undercard:
Churchill Downs Handicap: Taking a stab at a big price with Gantry. He is going great right now, riding a four race win streak. He took down Fair Grounds sprint specialist Cash Refund twice over the winter. He figures to be a good price to play against Smiling Tiger (the long layoff raises some red flags), Amazombie (this is not his best distance) and Shackleford (This blog always plays against him at his depressed odds).
Churchill Distaff Turf Mile: Two horse race between Marketing Mix and Daisy Devine. Aruna is better than her last, but this blog is going to take a chance and go against her.
Humana Distaff: Groupie Doll won the Vinery Madison in a sparkling performance, turning the tide against Musical Romance and Hot Summer. She has paired up big performances in the past and has won over the CD dirt. Accepting some sort of chalk in this P5 sequence is necessary, as not every race will be won by a huge longshot.
Woodford Reserve Turf Classic: Slim Shadey and Brilliant Speed are both good prices, both figure to enjoy the pace set-up and both are not on many people's radar. This is not Turallure's optimal distance, even though he does have a win over it.
Good luck folks. Enjoy the great day of racing!
Friday, July 1, 2011
Triple Bend - Shoemaker Mile Thoughts.
Fourth of July weekend bring two grade 1 races to the track of the Lakes and Flowers. The Shoemaker Mile on the turf and the Triple Ben Handicap sprinting seven furlongs on the main track. These two stakes have a long and rich history, with both of them running their 60th+ iteration. These two stakes both each have solid fields that bring together an eclectic group of runners, from former Grade 1 winners to up-and-comers looking to make a mark. Let's start with the first one on the card, the Shoemaker Mile.
The Shoemaker Mile marks the first race since his trip to Dubai for the defending champ Victor's Cry. He won this race last year in a stunning upset at 21-1. (video of that win below) Half of his six lifetime wins, and his only two stakes wins, have come over the Hollywood Park turf course. He's won off a similar layoffs in the past. He has come back solidly on the work tab in preparation for this race. His jockey for last three start Victor Espinoza is in the irons, and it looks like he has a good chance to defend his title.
The main threat to his title defense figures to be Courageous Cat. This son of Storm Cat out of the multiple grade one winner Tranquility Lake (who won multiple stakes over the Hollywood Park turf course in her career) started his year off in a winning fashion in the Poker at Belmont Park on Belmont Stakes eve. He popped a solid dirt work in the interim. CC must be going well for his connections to ship across country on three weeks rest to annex this Grade 1, which did come up softer than expected due the injury of Ryehill Dreamer and the sale & transfer of Sidney's Candy. While he has never been over the course, he should have no problem adapting to it, especially with his mother's success over it. Others who could have an impact are likely pace-setter Liberian Freighter and perennially overbet Carcortado.
Three races later, eight hook up for the Triple Bend. The favorite and highweight is Amazombie (right), who was questionably disqualified from a win in the Grade 3 LA Handicap. He hopes to continue his strong efforts in the race with his solid workout since the last race. This would be a stamp on the strong series of races he has run since October of last year. Those looking to beat him are: Grade 1 winner M One Rifle, who was interfered in the LA but was never going to better than the third he originally finished (the DQ put him up to second); Grade 1 winner Smiling Tiger, who looks to bounce back after a so-so effort in the CD Handicap last out; and Color of Courage, who has run two monster races after a 19 month layoff and steps up for his first graded stakes try.
So there's a quick rundown of the two Grade 1's on this Fourth of July weekend at Hollywood Park. Can Victor's Cry defend his title? Will Courageous Cat do his mama proud? Can Amazombie get a Grade 1 win? Good luck everybody!
The Shoemaker Mile marks the first race since his trip to Dubai for the defending champ Victor's Cry. He won this race last year in a stunning upset at 21-1. (video of that win below) Half of his six lifetime wins, and his only two stakes wins, have come over the Hollywood Park turf course. He's won off a similar layoffs in the past. He has come back solidly on the work tab in preparation for this race. His jockey for last three start Victor Espinoza is in the irons, and it looks like he has a good chance to defend his title.
The main threat to his title defense figures to be Courageous Cat. This son of Storm Cat out of the multiple grade one winner Tranquility Lake (who won multiple stakes over the Hollywood Park turf course in her career) started his year off in a winning fashion in the Poker at Belmont Park on Belmont Stakes eve. He popped a solid dirt work in the interim. CC must be going well for his connections to ship across country on three weeks rest to annex this Grade 1, which did come up softer than expected due the injury of Ryehill Dreamer and the sale & transfer of Sidney's Candy. While he has never been over the course, he should have no problem adapting to it, especially with his mother's success over it. Others who could have an impact are likely pace-setter Liberian Freighter and perennially overbet Carcortado.
Three races later, eight hook up for the Triple Bend. The favorite and highweight is Amazombie (right), who was questionably disqualified from a win in the Grade 3 LA Handicap. He hopes to continue his strong efforts in the race with his solid workout since the last race. This would be a stamp on the strong series of races he has run since October of last year. Those looking to beat him are: Grade 1 winner M One Rifle, who was interfered in the LA but was never going to better than the third he originally finished (the DQ put him up to second); Grade 1 winner Smiling Tiger, who looks to bounce back after a so-so effort in the CD Handicap last out; and Color of Courage, who has run two monster races after a 19 month layoff and steps up for his first graded stakes try.So there's a quick rundown of the two Grade 1's on this Fourth of July weekend at Hollywood Park. Can Victor's Cry defend his title? Will Courageous Cat do his mama proud? Can Amazombie get a Grade 1 win? Good luck everybody!
Wednesday, May 11, 2011
The Best Ride Last Weekend Almost No One Saw
Last weekend, while the eyes of the horse racing nation were on Churchill Downs, Hollywood Park ran the Grade 2 Mervyn Leroy Handicap. The race went off at the same time as the Churchill Distaff Turf Mile Stakes on the Kentucky Derby undercard, so very few saw this race. This four horse race featured multiple graded stakes winner Sidney's Candy. With only four horses in the field, Sidney figured to get an easy lead under rider Alonso Quinonez and go gate-to-wire. But that did not happen. Why?
Many jockeys these days are afraid of going after the lone speed in a race, trying to avoid a speed duel. We even witnessed this in the Kentucky Derby, where all the speed pulled back, allowing Shackleford to get an easy lead and hang on for 4th. They fear that trying to apply some pressure to the speed horse will cause their mount to go too fast and lose the race. But it is that pressure that is key to preventing a gate-to-wire winner. Tyler Baze provides a textbook definition to why this is true on his ride of Crown of Thorns in the Mervyn Leroy.
After Sidney's Candy gets an easy first quarter in 24:05, it looks like this will be another merry-go-round race where they don't catch him. Crown of Thorns is sitting a little more than a length and a half off of him, not applying any real pressure. But as they reach the 6 furlong pole, Tyler makes the tactical decision in moving Crown of Thorns onto Sidney's flank, sitting just a length off.
This causes Sidney to go through the second quarter in a much quicker 23:17. Tyler keeps Crown of Thorns right off of Sidney's Candy through that acceleration for that quarter mile, preventing Sidney from getting separation. Like many speed horses, those easy middle fractions are key to going gate-to-wire. Tyler knows this, and is still on Sidney's flank with a 1/2 mile to go.
By the time they hit the stretch, Sidney does not have that needed separation on his main foe. Tyler is able to grind his way past on Crown of Thorns to an eventual length and a half victory. This tactical race ride is the key to this victory. This blog applauds Tyler Baze for the savvy ride, and hope that his comeback from the DL is filled with many more stakes wins.
Here's the full replay of the race:
This race is a template in showing how applying pressure, but not engaging in a speed duel, is key to undoing the chances of a gate-to-wire threat on paper. In-race tactics are what separate the mediocre riders from those who you can have faith in putting your last two dollars on. Good luck on your future wagers.
Many jockeys these days are afraid of going after the lone speed in a race, trying to avoid a speed duel. We even witnessed this in the Kentucky Derby, where all the speed pulled back, allowing Shackleford to get an easy lead and hang on for 4th. They fear that trying to apply some pressure to the speed horse will cause their mount to go too fast and lose the race. But it is that pressure that is key to preventing a gate-to-wire winner. Tyler Baze provides a textbook definition to why this is true on his ride of Crown of Thorns in the Mervyn Leroy.
After Sidney's Candy gets an easy first quarter in 24:05, it looks like this will be another merry-go-round race where they don't catch him. Crown of Thorns is sitting a little more than a length and a half off of him, not applying any real pressure. But as they reach the 6 furlong pole, Tyler makes the tactical decision in moving Crown of Thorns onto Sidney's flank, sitting just a length off.
This causes Sidney to go through the second quarter in a much quicker 23:17. Tyler keeps Crown of Thorns right off of Sidney's Candy through that acceleration for that quarter mile, preventing Sidney from getting separation. Like many speed horses, those easy middle fractions are key to going gate-to-wire. Tyler knows this, and is still on Sidney's flank with a 1/2 mile to go.
By the time they hit the stretch, Sidney does not have that needed separation on his main foe. Tyler is able to grind his way past on Crown of Thorns to an eventual length and a half victory. This tactical race ride is the key to this victory. This blog applauds Tyler Baze for the savvy ride, and hope that his comeback from the DL is filled with many more stakes wins.
Here's the full replay of the race:
This race is a template in showing how applying pressure, but not engaging in a speed duel, is key to undoing the chances of a gate-to-wire threat on paper. In-race tactics are what separate the mediocre riders from those who you can have faith in putting your last two dollars on. Good luck on your future wagers.
Friday, December 17, 2010
Hustlin' for that Cash...Call Futurity Winner
The road to the Kentucky Derby hits one of its early destinations, the Grade 1 $750,000 CashCall Futurity at Hollywood Park this Saturday. This Grade 1 race has been the stepping stone to such horses as Real Quiet, Point Given and last year's winner Lookin At Lucky. The $450,000 first place check all but guarantees a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate. The top two Southern California two year olds (Jaycito and Premier Pegasus) are skipping the race, so there is a chance for someone to take a big step forward toward the Derby dream. The locals must defend the turf from two east coast invaders. Let's get to the race.
The only Grade 1 winner in the field is #2 J P's Gusto. This winner of the G1 Del Mar Futurity comes out of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile where he was a well-beaten 6th. He finished a disappointing third in the Norfolk two races back, and appears to be beyond the scope of his abilities distance-wise. He loses his jockey to another horse in the race, and it looks like he will be nothing more than a pace factor.
The other two graded stakes winners are #7 Gourmet Dinner and #10 Comma to the Top. Each won a Grade 3 last time out, albeit on a surface different than today's race. Gourmet Dinner was a upset winner of the Delta Jackpot on dirt, while Comma To The Top was a gate-to-wire winner of the Generous. Comma has risen the class ladder all the way from the bottom (the maiden claiming ranks) to the top (Grade 1), with a 4 race win streak that includes a win over this track a part of the rise. Unfortunately, the ride ends here for him, as he will finally hit his class ceiling. As the favorite, he will take plenty of money, but with J P's Gusto and others harassing him on the lead, Comma looks very vulnerable. Gourmet Dinner had a quick blowout over the surface yesterday, and should be fine over the surface. Never finishing worst than second in his five lifetime races, he must use in the exotics. He will be coming from mid-pack under his regular jockey, who follows along from their home base of Calder (in Florida).
An interesting horse who will be a price is #8 Riveting Reason, after setting the pace (then backing up quickly) in the BC Juvenile, he came back to SoCal and broke his maiden. Before the Juvenile, he had finished third in the Norfolk and the Del Mar Futurity. He steps back up into stakes company, and should be sitting just behind the first flight of horses. He is a must use in the middle and lower rungs of the exotics. The only time he did not was the BC Juvenile. He gets the riding services of Alonzo Quinonez, who rides the other 2yo star of the barn, Premier Pegasus.
The main threat and the second choice on both the morning line and of this blog is #9 Industry Leader. This lightly raced son of Cherokee Run made his stakes debut in only his second start last time out, finishing second behind Premier Pegasus in the Hollywood Prevue. He has worked swiftly in the interim, and should have no problem with the distance. His trainer is very high on him, and he looks to set a good trip sitting in the second or third tier of runners.
The selection is #3 Rustler Hustler. This son of Ecton Park ships in from the east coast for his trainer Richard Dutrow. He has been working swiftly and steadily for his first start in 7 weeks. He won a race at this distance (but on the grass) last time out at Belmont. He manages to get top New York jockey Ramon Dominguez to take a break from his vacation to ride the horse. He should not have a problem with the synthetic, as he broke his maiden on the Tapeta at Presque Isle Downs. The only concern is that his trainer does not do will over the synthetic. (The maiden win was under a different trainer.) Rustler will be rolling from the back of the pack, and hopefully will show some 'hustle' and mow them all down.
Selections:
Rustler Hustler to win; Gourmet Dinner, Industry Leader & Riveting Reason underneath.
Will we see a horse give a breakout performance and thrust himself into the forefront of the Derby discussion? Will an east coast invader take the last grade 1 route race of the year? Can anyone stop Comma To the Top from making another 'possessive' statement of a victory? This field of two year olds have only upside to the them. But will that upside be enough? We will know by Saturday night. Good luck everybody!
The only Grade 1 winner in the field is #2 J P's Gusto. This winner of the G1 Del Mar Futurity comes out of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile where he was a well-beaten 6th. He finished a disappointing third in the Norfolk two races back, and appears to be beyond the scope of his abilities distance-wise. He loses his jockey to another horse in the race, and it looks like he will be nothing more than a pace factor.
The other two graded stakes winners are #7 Gourmet Dinner and #10 Comma to the Top. Each won a Grade 3 last time out, albeit on a surface different than today's race. Gourmet Dinner was a upset winner of the Delta Jackpot on dirt, while Comma To The Top was a gate-to-wire winner of the Generous. Comma has risen the class ladder all the way from the bottom (the maiden claiming ranks) to the top (Grade 1), with a 4 race win streak that includes a win over this track a part of the rise. Unfortunately, the ride ends here for him, as he will finally hit his class ceiling. As the favorite, he will take plenty of money, but with J P's Gusto and others harassing him on the lead, Comma looks very vulnerable. Gourmet Dinner had a quick blowout over the surface yesterday, and should be fine over the surface. Never finishing worst than second in his five lifetime races, he must use in the exotics. He will be coming from mid-pack under his regular jockey, who follows along from their home base of Calder (in Florida).
An interesting horse who will be a price is #8 Riveting Reason, after setting the pace (then backing up quickly) in the BC Juvenile, he came back to SoCal and broke his maiden. Before the Juvenile, he had finished third in the Norfolk and the Del Mar Futurity. He steps back up into stakes company, and should be sitting just behind the first flight of horses. He is a must use in the middle and lower rungs of the exotics. The only time he did not was the BC Juvenile. He gets the riding services of Alonzo Quinonez, who rides the other 2yo star of the barn, Premier Pegasus.
The main threat and the second choice on both the morning line and of this blog is #9 Industry Leader. This lightly raced son of Cherokee Run made his stakes debut in only his second start last time out, finishing second behind Premier Pegasus in the Hollywood Prevue. He has worked swiftly in the interim, and should have no problem with the distance. His trainer is very high on him, and he looks to set a good trip sitting in the second or third tier of runners.
The selection is #3 Rustler Hustler. This son of Ecton Park ships in from the east coast for his trainer Richard Dutrow. He has been working swiftly and steadily for his first start in 7 weeks. He won a race at this distance (but on the grass) last time out at Belmont. He manages to get top New York jockey Ramon Dominguez to take a break from his vacation to ride the horse. He should not have a problem with the synthetic, as he broke his maiden on the Tapeta at Presque Isle Downs. The only concern is that his trainer does not do will over the synthetic. (The maiden win was under a different trainer.) Rustler will be rolling from the back of the pack, and hopefully will show some 'hustle' and mow them all down.
Selections:
Rustler Hustler to win; Gourmet Dinner, Industry Leader & Riveting Reason underneath.
Will we see a horse give a breakout performance and thrust himself into the forefront of the Derby discussion? Will an east coast invader take the last grade 1 route race of the year? Can anyone stop Comma To the Top from making another 'possessive' statement of a victory? This field of two year olds have only upside to the them. But will that upside be enough? We will know by Saturday night. Good luck everybody!
Friday, November 26, 2010
No Need to Cry Over The Matriarch
Today begins the Hollywood Park Turf Festival, stretching three days and featuring 5 graded stakes, including the last two Grade 1 turf races this year. (For my thoughts on the rest of the turf festival, check them out in the Thorofan's Handicapper Corner) Today is the Grade 1 Matriarch for filles and mares going a flat mile on the grass. This race has fabulous fillies in its list of past winners such as Royal Heroine, Flawlessly and most recently Ventura. There is a compact field of 7, and appears to boil down to a two-horse race.
The favorite and the foreign invader:
#6 Special Duty looks to continue the dominance of Juddmonte in this race. They have been the owners of six out of the last thirteen winners, and look to have another strong entrant in this Hennessy filly. She ships in from Europe, and retains the services of top local jockey Rafael Bejarano. She brings in top form, as she finished only four and 1/4 lengths behind the world-class mare Goldikova last time out. She has not crossed the wire first this year, however, as both of her wins came via the stewards, as the winners were both disqualified from the top spot. She will be rolling late with her late kick from the back of the pack, but can she get to the pick?
The pick and the Texas invader:
#7 Wasted Tears is a hard-knocking speedball who goes to the lead and tells you to come and catch them. I have a fondness for this type of horse, especially when it is a mare on the grass. Last time out, she was uncharacteristically rated off the lead early on in the Grade 1 First Lady. She then went too swift to gain the lead going into the turn and stopped late, being defeated . Taken back to her home base, she has thrown several good works since and will problem revert to her front-running ways. Rajiv Maragh maintains the mount, and looks to atone for his mistake last time out. The field may catch her, but can they pass this game mare? This blog say "No."
This blog will have plenty of pictures for his wrap-up of the race (and the rest of the weekend races), as he is headed out to the track to finally see "Ten Top T-bred" Wasted Tears in person. Good luck this weekend everybody!
P.S. Time constraints prevented me from writing about the Grade 1 Clark Handicap, but I would be remiss if I didn't mention the pick #2 Apart aka Blame 2.0 aka Blame's successor. This son of Flatter has the same owner, trainer and breeder connections as Blame, and looks to carry the colors proudly in the Clark.
The favorite and the foreign invader:
#6 Special Duty looks to continue the dominance of Juddmonte in this race. They have been the owners of six out of the last thirteen winners, and look to have another strong entrant in this Hennessy filly. She ships in from Europe, and retains the services of top local jockey Rafael Bejarano. She brings in top form, as she finished only four and 1/4 lengths behind the world-class mare Goldikova last time out. She has not crossed the wire first this year, however, as both of her wins came via the stewards, as the winners were both disqualified from the top spot. She will be rolling late with her late kick from the back of the pack, but can she get to the pick?
The pick and the Texas invader:
#7 Wasted Tears is a hard-knocking speedball who goes to the lead and tells you to come and catch them. I have a fondness for this type of horse, especially when it is a mare on the grass. Last time out, she was uncharacteristically rated off the lead early on in the Grade 1 First Lady. She then went too swift to gain the lead going into the turn and stopped late, being defeated . Taken back to her home base, she has thrown several good works since and will problem revert to her front-running ways. Rajiv Maragh maintains the mount, and looks to atone for his mistake last time out. The field may catch her, but can they pass this game mare? This blog say "No."
This blog will have plenty of pictures for his wrap-up of the race (and the rest of the weekend races), as he is headed out to the track to finally see "Ten Top T-bred" Wasted Tears in person. Good luck this weekend everybody!
P.S. Time constraints prevented me from writing about the Grade 1 Clark Handicap, but I would be remiss if I didn't mention the pick #2 Apart aka Blame 2.0 aka Blame's successor. This son of Flatter has the same owner, trainer and breeder connections as Blame, and looks to carry the colors proudly in the Clark.
Tuesday, September 21, 2010
Putting The Horse Before The Cart? Or Without A Cart?
Earlier this month, Oak Tree released their promotional schedule for the Oak Tree at Hollywood Park meet. There are 5 giveaways at the meet, with the first three involving Zenyatta in some ways. The last two are on consecutive days on the closing weekend of the meet. A giveaway for every weekend save one. But is that too many giveaways, especially Zenyatta giveaways, for only 5 week meet?
Let us first give a rundown on what the giveaways are and when they will be handed out. Opening weekend brings “the queen’s” last competitive appearance in Southern California in the Grade 1 Lady’s Secret (soon to be re-rechristened the Zenyatta Stakes), and a Zenyatta Hat will be given away. Also on this day, 3 other Grade 1 stakes will be run. Next weekend brings 2 more Grade 1 stakes but no giveaway. Weekend #3 brings with it a Zenyatta picture, and the Grade 2 Oak Tree Derby. The 4th weekend comes with the signature stein giveaway (moved from its normal opening week position), featuring Z. The last weekend will have the only two non-Z giveaways. Cal Cup Day on Saturday will bring with a shirt, and the next day will close out the meet with a sweatshirt to be handed out.
The above sounds like a normal promotional schedule, no? Not for Oak Tree. Oak Tree in the past gave away 3 items a meet. The stein on opening day/opening weekend, another giveaway in the middle, and the ubiquitous California Cup giveaway. (From here forward, “California Cup” will be shortened to Cal Cup) That was the schedule for years. It allowed for some time to occur between each giveaway. With five giveaways this season, especially on back-to-back days on closing weekend, this blog wonders if it may not have the desired effect of boosting attendance and revenue. Why have giveaways on consecutive days, especially on closing weekend, after having 3 other giveaways in the same month? It could be that the expected drop in revenue that much with the move from Santa Anita to Hollywood Park is so much that Oak Tree must resort to a “chuck-and-pray” strategy of giving away as much free stuff as possible to lure customers to make the driver over from Arcadia.
Let this blog make it undeniably clear: It has nothing against honoring Zenyatta with multiple giveaways in a meet. This blog expected that this year’s stein would honor her and her win in the 2009 Breeders Cup Classic. This blog also expected that the first giveaway would also be Zenyatta-themed. This blog did not expect a third Zenyatta giveaway, but it is nothing but another honor to the great mare. But this blog has a problem with the giveaways. The problem this blog has is the order and number of the giveaways. Why does the order and number matter?
The order and number of the giveaways may lead to a phenomenon this blog will call “Promotional Burnout”. With so many giveaways offered this meet, this blog wonders how effective the last two giveaways will be on attendance. With the first three giveaways being Z-themed, it is a guarantee that people will come out to collect them. The first giveaway will have the highest attendance, since that is the day of the Lady’s Secret, which is the next target for Zenyatta. The next two giveaway days, which are also Z-themed, could receive a “bounce-back” effect from the first day.
The “bounce-back” effect is an issue, as Oak Tree is pandering to the existing audience. They know that her fans will come (or at least hope that they will come) out for three successive Zenyatta giveaways. Yet doing this strategy could come at a major cost. If the crowds show up for the next two giveaways. will they be able to afford to come back for Cal Cup day? If it is a struggle to get people out for those two days, what chance does Cal Cup day have? Will any of the new people (which is part of the reason these giveaways occur, so that new fans can be enticed to visit) come out for a non-Zenyatta giveaway day, given the choice of a free Zenyatta-related item or a non-Zenyatta related item?
The worry that this blog has is that Cal Cup day will be the most affected by the promotional schedule. By the time Cal Cup comes around, anyone who is using the promotion as part of the reason to come out may have used up enough of their “entertainment budget”, for lack of a better term, that they will not be able to come out that day. Furthermore, even if they have the financial ability to come, it is doubtful that they the people in Los Angeles will have the drive to go to the track for the third straight weekend. The fact that instead of two full weeks worth of advertising for Cal Cup, it will get barely a week. As of now, unless one decided to dig around Oak Tree’s Facebook page, one would not know about the giveaway on Cal Cup day. The racing site for Oak Tree is still not up, and nowhere on Hollywood Park’s website does it list a giveaway. Yet all three of the Zenyatta giveaways are seen on the home page. The missed opportunity to promote Cal Cup prominently before Zenyatta runs, when interest is at its highest is a shame, landing another blow to the already struggling California-bred program.
This edition of the Cal Cup is especially important with the closing of one of the major farms out here in California, River Edge Farm. The number of horses bred out here has plummeted the last few years. This closing hints at the tough environment that exist out here in California. The Cal Cup (and its sister Gold Rush festival at Hollywood Park in spring) are very important to the Cal-bred industry. These days show off the stars of the program, and how it is possible for the little guy to get a piece of it. These days are a chance to get the fans to come out to see and wager on the home-bred team. These days allow the fans to see a horse who might be around for the next few years, running multiple times locally. These type of horses that can be seen a few times a year without having to travel the country. This type of marketing can build loyalty that can bring fans back to the game.
Where else could you have seen Lava Man, in the infancy of his stakes career, in a thrilling loss to Cozy Guy in the 2004 Cal Cup Classic? Where else you could have seen 2002 Hollywood Gold Cup winner Sky Jack win his first stake in the 2000 Cal Cup Classic, then come back from knee surgery to win that Gold Cup? Where could you have seen the game gelding Yougottawanna give a glimpse of what would be a long, fruitful multi-year career in his upset of Officer in the 2001 Cal Cup Juvenile? Where else could you have seen Cavonnier, who was the shortest nose away from giving trainer Bob Baffert his first Kentucky Derby win, cap off his two year-old season with a win the 1995 Cal Cup Juvenile? Where else could you have found all of these Southern California stars of tomorrow at the same place but at the Cal Cup?
Zenyatta is the first horse in a very long time that that deserves to have multiple giveaways in the same meet. Once she retires though, how many of those fans will come back? Especially without someone new, that they might see for years to come? That is why it bothers me that Cal Cup gets the short end of the stick when it comes to the promotional schedule this year. The horse shortage out here will continue to be exacerbated unless horses are bred out here in California. Without enough horses being bred, the California Cup will disappear. Without the Cal Cup, another big day for the California breeder/owner/trainer is gone. It will become a downward spiral of doom. As much as love and want to celebrate Z, i just can't stand to see the Cal Cup, the breeding industry and horse racing overall in California die a painful death.
Let us first give a rundown on what the giveaways are and when they will be handed out. Opening weekend brings “the queen’s” last competitive appearance in Southern California in the Grade 1 Lady’s Secret (soon to be re-rechristened the Zenyatta Stakes), and a Zenyatta Hat will be given away. Also on this day, 3 other Grade 1 stakes will be run. Next weekend brings 2 more Grade 1 stakes but no giveaway. Weekend #3 brings with it a Zenyatta picture, and the Grade 2 Oak Tree Derby. The 4th weekend comes with the signature stein giveaway (moved from its normal opening week position), featuring Z. The last weekend will have the only two non-Z giveaways. Cal Cup Day on Saturday will bring with a shirt, and the next day will close out the meet with a sweatshirt to be handed out.
The above sounds like a normal promotional schedule, no? Not for Oak Tree. Oak Tree in the past gave away 3 items a meet. The stein on opening day/opening weekend, another giveaway in the middle, and the ubiquitous California Cup giveaway. (From here forward, “California Cup” will be shortened to Cal Cup) That was the schedule for years. It allowed for some time to occur between each giveaway. With five giveaways this season, especially on back-to-back days on closing weekend, this blog wonders if it may not have the desired effect of boosting attendance and revenue. Why have giveaways on consecutive days, especially on closing weekend, after having 3 other giveaways in the same month? It could be that the expected drop in revenue that much with the move from Santa Anita to Hollywood Park is so much that Oak Tree must resort to a “chuck-and-pray” strategy of giving away as much free stuff as possible to lure customers to make the driver over from Arcadia.
Let this blog make it undeniably clear: It has nothing against honoring Zenyatta with multiple giveaways in a meet. This blog expected that this year’s stein would honor her and her win in the 2009 Breeders Cup Classic. This blog also expected that the first giveaway would also be Zenyatta-themed. This blog did not expect a third Zenyatta giveaway, but it is nothing but another honor to the great mare. But this blog has a problem with the giveaways. The problem this blog has is the order and number of the giveaways. Why does the order and number matter?
The order and number of the giveaways may lead to a phenomenon this blog will call “Promotional Burnout”. With so many giveaways offered this meet, this blog wonders how effective the last two giveaways will be on attendance. With the first three giveaways being Z-themed, it is a guarantee that people will come out to collect them. The first giveaway will have the highest attendance, since that is the day of the Lady’s Secret, which is the next target for Zenyatta. The next two giveaway days, which are also Z-themed, could receive a “bounce-back” effect from the first day.
The “bounce-back” effect is an issue, as Oak Tree is pandering to the existing audience. They know that her fans will come (or at least hope that they will come) out for three successive Zenyatta giveaways. Yet doing this strategy could come at a major cost. If the crowds show up for the next two giveaways. will they be able to afford to come back for Cal Cup day? If it is a struggle to get people out for those two days, what chance does Cal Cup day have? Will any of the new people (which is part of the reason these giveaways occur, so that new fans can be enticed to visit) come out for a non-Zenyatta giveaway day, given the choice of a free Zenyatta-related item or a non-Zenyatta related item?
The worry that this blog has is that Cal Cup day will be the most affected by the promotional schedule. By the time Cal Cup comes around, anyone who is using the promotion as part of the reason to come out may have used up enough of their “entertainment budget”, for lack of a better term, that they will not be able to come out that day. Furthermore, even if they have the financial ability to come, it is doubtful that they the people in Los Angeles will have the drive to go to the track for the third straight weekend. The fact that instead of two full weeks worth of advertising for Cal Cup, it will get barely a week. As of now, unless one decided to dig around Oak Tree’s Facebook page, one would not know about the giveaway on Cal Cup day. The racing site for Oak Tree is still not up, and nowhere on Hollywood Park’s website does it list a giveaway. Yet all three of the Zenyatta giveaways are seen on the home page. The missed opportunity to promote Cal Cup prominently before Zenyatta runs, when interest is at its highest is a shame, landing another blow to the already struggling California-bred program.
This edition of the Cal Cup is especially important with the closing of one of the major farms out here in California, River Edge Farm. The number of horses bred out here has plummeted the last few years. This closing hints at the tough environment that exist out here in California. The Cal Cup (and its sister Gold Rush festival at Hollywood Park in spring) are very important to the Cal-bred industry. These days show off the stars of the program, and how it is possible for the little guy to get a piece of it. These days are a chance to get the fans to come out to see and wager on the home-bred team. These days allow the fans to see a horse who might be around for the next few years, running multiple times locally. These type of horses that can be seen a few times a year without having to travel the country. This type of marketing can build loyalty that can bring fans back to the game.
Where else could you have seen Lava Man, in the infancy of his stakes career, in a thrilling loss to Cozy Guy in the 2004 Cal Cup Classic? Where else you could have seen 2002 Hollywood Gold Cup winner Sky Jack win his first stake in the 2000 Cal Cup Classic, then come back from knee surgery to win that Gold Cup? Where could you have seen the game gelding Yougottawanna give a glimpse of what would be a long, fruitful multi-year career in his upset of Officer in the 2001 Cal Cup Juvenile? Where else could you have seen Cavonnier, who was the shortest nose away from giving trainer Bob Baffert his first Kentucky Derby win, cap off his two year-old season with a win the 1995 Cal Cup Juvenile? Where else could you have found all of these Southern California stars of tomorrow at the same place but at the Cal Cup?
Zenyatta is the first horse in a very long time that that deserves to have multiple giveaways in the same meet. Once she retires though, how many of those fans will come back? Especially without someone new, that they might see for years to come? That is why it bothers me that Cal Cup gets the short end of the stick when it comes to the promotional schedule this year. The horse shortage out here will continue to be exacerbated unless horses are bred out here in California. Without enough horses being bred, the California Cup will disappear. Without the Cal Cup, another big day for the California breeder/owner/trainer is gone. It will become a downward spiral of doom. As much as love and want to celebrate Z, i just can't stand to see the Cal Cup, the breeding industry and horse racing overall in California die a painful death.
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
Hollywood Park meet wrap-up - Who will win the Vicy?
Another Hollywood Park Spring/Summer meet has come to a close. There were some great things (the Vanity, the concerts) and not-so-great things (large drops in handle and attendance). This post will be honoring some of the events that happened at the meet by awarding them the "Vicys", named in honor of track announcer Vic Stauffer. These awards will cover people, horses and other things that happened at Hollywood Park the last three months. Some of the awards have nominees, while others were a unanimous vote from the group of voters, which consisted of me, myself and I. (Haha)
The first Vicy goes to the jockey who gave the best ride of the meet. The nominees are:
David Flores on Awesome Gem - G1 Hollywood Gold Cup (Race 8 - July 10th)
Christian Santiago-Reyes - G2 Jim Murray Handicap (Race 8 - May 15th)
Alex Solis on Tanda - G3 Railbird Stakes (Race 7 - May 9th)
The winner is....
Alex Solis
Alex takes advantage of a tepid first quarter and an opening on the rail to take control of the race, going to the lead and never looking back. She would hold off Switch, who would come out of the race to defeat multiple Grade 1 winner Blind Luck in the Hollywood Oaks. Tanda would go onto run third in the G1 Acorn on the Belmont Stakes undercard.
The next Vicy is for the most questionable ride of the meet. This award has only one nominee, as the voting was unanimous. The winner is Rafael Bejarano for his ride on Rail Trip in the Hollywood Gold Cup. He chose to rate off of a glacially slow pace, leaving himself parked wide the entire race. This cost him the victory when Awesome Gem grinded his way to victory along the rail, leaving Rail Tip to finish second.
Next up is the Perfect Rail Trip award. This for the horse who got a dream run through on the rail. The voting was unanimous for this one (but a bit suprising, due to its recency) as last weekend's Grade 2 A Gleam Handicap provided it.
Sweet August Moon made her way from the outside to the rail, then sat just behind the pacesetters. As the race worked its way through the turn, Sweet August Moon shot through the gap at the rail and worked her way to victory. This was her first victory in 15 months, with that coming in the G3 Las Flores Handicap.
Next up is the what i like to call the "bye-bye" award (or the "FU" award). This goes to the horse who won in gate-to-wire fashion, with them never being challenged and/or blowing the doors off their competition.
The nominees are:
Acclamation in the Grade II Jim Murray Handicap(Race 8 - May 15th)
Acclamation in the Grade I Charles Whittingham Memorial Handicap (Race 10 - June 5th)
Marlang in the Grade 3 Sunset Handicap (Race 9 - July 18th)
Ruination in an Cal-bred allowance/optional claiming race (Race 7 - April 23rd)
The winner is:
Acclamation for his win in the Jim Murray!
This 7 1/2 length win set a new Stakes record for the largest margin of victory. Acclamation would go on to win the Whittingham, then falter badly in the United Nations at Monmouth over the 4th of July weekend. Hopefully he will be rested and pointed to Del Mar Handicap at the end of August. Acclamation also wins the Vicy for best male.
Next up is for big disappointment of the meet. This award is shared among the following: the total decline in average handle from last meet (down 10%) and a decline in average attendance (Also down 10%). Special acknowledgment goes to the crowd sizes for the Vanity and the Hollywood Gold Cup, which were very underwhelming. Less than 13,000 for Zenyatta is just sad. Seeing most of the apron empty on Hollywood Gold Cup day was heartbreaking. Hopefully something can be done to staunch the bleeding from the crowd size, and soon.
Next up is Race of the meet, and with a unanimous (and roaring) victory, the winner is the Vanity Handicap, featuring Zenyatta's thrilling victory.
With this victory, Zenyatta remains undefeated for her career of 17 races. Her next race has yet to be determined. Zenyatta also wins the award for best female and best horse in a dramatic role.
Now we come down to the big award of the evening, Horse of the Meet:
The Nominees are (in alphabetical order):
Acclamation
E Z Gentlemen (who the won Vicy for best sprinter)
Rail Trip
Sangaree
Zenyatta
and the winner is.....
ACCLAMATION!. In a bit of an upset, Acclamation wins Horse of the Meet. His two graded stakes victories, including the Grade 1 Charles Whittingham Memorial Handicap, were done in such fine fashion that even though personally he has cost me a lot of money at the windows these last 13 months, his performances were strong enough to win the Vicy for Horse of the Meet. The Cal-bred son of Unusual Heat won both of his stakes in front-running fashion for trainer Donald Warren and owners the Johnstons, for which Acclamation is a home-bred.
So there you are, the Vicys are awarded, the meet is done and now southern California racing moves its way down the 5 freeway to Del Mar. Hopefully the new meet will bring out some fresh blood, as the stars of tomorrow may debut in any number of the loaded two-year old maiden races and the large crowds come out to watch can stay a little longer down the road.
The first Vicy goes to the jockey who gave the best ride of the meet. The nominees are:
David Flores on Awesome Gem - G1 Hollywood Gold Cup (Race 8 - July 10th)
Christian Santiago-Reyes - G2 Jim Murray Handicap (Race 8 - May 15th)
Alex Solis on Tanda - G3 Railbird Stakes (Race 7 - May 9th)
The winner is....
Alex Solis
Alex takes advantage of a tepid first quarter and an opening on the rail to take control of the race, going to the lead and never looking back. She would hold off Switch, who would come out of the race to defeat multiple Grade 1 winner Blind Luck in the Hollywood Oaks. Tanda would go onto run third in the G1 Acorn on the Belmont Stakes undercard.
The next Vicy is for the most questionable ride of the meet. This award has only one nominee, as the voting was unanimous. The winner is Rafael Bejarano for his ride on Rail Trip in the Hollywood Gold Cup. He chose to rate off of a glacially slow pace, leaving himself parked wide the entire race. This cost him the victory when Awesome Gem grinded his way to victory along the rail, leaving Rail Tip to finish second.
Next up is the Perfect Rail Trip award. This for the horse who got a dream run through on the rail. The voting was unanimous for this one (but a bit suprising, due to its recency) as last weekend's Grade 2 A Gleam Handicap provided it.
Sweet August Moon made her way from the outside to the rail, then sat just behind the pacesetters. As the race worked its way through the turn, Sweet August Moon shot through the gap at the rail and worked her way to victory. This was her first victory in 15 months, with that coming in the G3 Las Flores Handicap.
Next up is the what i like to call the "bye-bye" award (or the "FU" award). This goes to the horse who won in gate-to-wire fashion, with them never being challenged and/or blowing the doors off their competition.
The nominees are:
Acclamation in the Grade II Jim Murray Handicap(Race 8 - May 15th)
Acclamation in the Grade I Charles Whittingham Memorial Handicap (Race 10 - June 5th)
Marlang in the Grade 3 Sunset Handicap (Race 9 - July 18th)
Ruination in an Cal-bred allowance/optional claiming race (Race 7 - April 23rd)
The winner is:
Acclamation for his win in the Jim Murray!
This 7 1/2 length win set a new Stakes record for the largest margin of victory. Acclamation would go on to win the Whittingham, then falter badly in the United Nations at Monmouth over the 4th of July weekend. Hopefully he will be rested and pointed to Del Mar Handicap at the end of August. Acclamation also wins the Vicy for best male.
Next up is for big disappointment of the meet. This award is shared among the following: the total decline in average handle from last meet (down 10%) and a decline in average attendance (Also down 10%). Special acknowledgment goes to the crowd sizes for the Vanity and the Hollywood Gold Cup, which were very underwhelming. Less than 13,000 for Zenyatta is just sad. Seeing most of the apron empty on Hollywood Gold Cup day was heartbreaking. Hopefully something can be done to staunch the bleeding from the crowd size, and soon.
Next up is Race of the meet, and with a unanimous (and roaring) victory, the winner is the Vanity Handicap, featuring Zenyatta's thrilling victory.
With this victory, Zenyatta remains undefeated for her career of 17 races. Her next race has yet to be determined. Zenyatta also wins the award for best female and best horse in a dramatic role.
Now we come down to the big award of the evening, Horse of the Meet:
The Nominees are (in alphabetical order):
Acclamation
E Z Gentlemen (who the won Vicy for best sprinter)
Rail Trip
Sangaree
Zenyatta
and the winner is.....
ACCLAMATION!. In a bit of an upset, Acclamation wins Horse of the Meet. His two graded stakes victories, including the Grade 1 Charles Whittingham Memorial Handicap, were done in such fine fashion that even though personally he has cost me a lot of money at the windows these last 13 months, his performances were strong enough to win the Vicy for Horse of the Meet. The Cal-bred son of Unusual Heat won both of his stakes in front-running fashion for trainer Donald Warren and owners the Johnstons, for which Acclamation is a home-bred.
So there you are, the Vicys are awarded, the meet is done and now southern California racing moves its way down the 5 freeway to Del Mar. Hopefully the new meet will bring out some fresh blood, as the stars of tomorrow may debut in any number of the loaded two-year old maiden races and the large crowds come out to watch can stay a little longer down the road.
Thursday, May 27, 2010
Gamely - An Aptly Named Stake for a Aptly Named Horse
This Saturday at Hollywood Park, The Grade 1 Gamely Stakes will be run at a mile and an eighth on the turf course. This stake will bring together the multiple Grade 1 winning mare Forever Together versus the multiple graded stakes winner Tuscan Evening. But combined they have won as many graded stakes as the horse for whom this race is named for, the great mare Gamely.
Gamely did not run at two, mainly due to her size (16.2 hands). Her career begin at age three in California, where her first stake win was the Princess Stakes up north. Then, after two seconds in the Railbird Stakes and the Hollywood Oaks, she was sent east to Saratoga. Once there, she became a revelation. First, she won a division of the Test Stakes, setting a track record at seven furlongs in the process. Then she went on the win the Alabama, and finish third in the Beldame against older. She won the Eclipse Award for outstanding three-year-old filly.
At 4, she would go on to win the Vanity, Santa Maria, Santa Margarita, Inglewood (on the grass), Beldame & Wilshire (run at 7f on the main track) Handicaps that year. She also was 2nd in the Santa Anita Handicap and The Californian (to Dr. Fager) versus males. She would go on to win the Eclipse Award for Older Female. She would also share the award, with Gallant Bloom, the next year. At age 5, she would go on to defend her Beldame and Wilshire crowns, while adding the Diana & Santa Monica Handicaps to her ever-growing mantle. (To see a program of her, when she ran in the Santa Barbara Hcp. in 1969 (where she would run 3rd), click here)
She sadly died days after giving birth to her to her second foal in 1975. She was posthumously inducted into the Hall of Fame in 1980. She is buried at Claiborne Farm. Her legacy continues on with the stake named in her honor. But who will add there name to the list of such past winners as Estrapade, Hollywood Wildcat, Fiji and Tranquility Lake?
Beside the two big stars entered in the Gamely, there is one more horse that bears some acknowledgment. This filly is named Medaglia D'Amour. She is an undefeated daughter of Medaglia D'Oro, winning all four of her lifetime starts. Last time out, she won her stakes debut in the Wilshire Handicap at a mile on the Hollywood Park lawn. She was bet down from a 15-1 morning line down to 3-1 2nd choice. She stretches out another furlong and steps up in class, facing probably the top two older grass mares in the country. Will she be able to overcome such obstacles? Will Tuscan Evening continue her hot streak across town? Will Forever Together be able to reel her in? This Saturday, all these questions and more will be answered.
Gamely did not run at two, mainly due to her size (16.2 hands). Her career begin at age three in California, where her first stake win was the Princess Stakes up north. Then, after two seconds in the Railbird Stakes and the Hollywood Oaks, she was sent east to Saratoga. Once there, she became a revelation. First, she won a division of the Test Stakes, setting a track record at seven furlongs in the process. Then she went on the win the Alabama, and finish third in the Beldame against older. She won the Eclipse Award for outstanding three-year-old filly.
At 4, she would go on to win the Vanity, Santa Maria, Santa Margarita, Inglewood (on the grass), Beldame & Wilshire (run at 7f on the main track) Handicaps that year. She also was 2nd in the Santa Anita Handicap and The Californian (to Dr. Fager) versus males. She would go on to win the Eclipse Award for Older Female. She would also share the award, with Gallant Bloom, the next year. At age 5, she would go on to defend her Beldame and Wilshire crowns, while adding the Diana & Santa Monica Handicaps to her ever-growing mantle. (To see a program of her, when she ran in the Santa Barbara Hcp. in 1969 (where she would run 3rd), click here)
She sadly died days after giving birth to her to her second foal in 1975. She was posthumously inducted into the Hall of Fame in 1980. She is buried at Claiborne Farm. Her legacy continues on with the stake named in her honor. But who will add there name to the list of such past winners as Estrapade, Hollywood Wildcat, Fiji and Tranquility Lake?
Beside the two big stars entered in the Gamely, there is one more horse that bears some acknowledgment. This filly is named Medaglia D'Amour. She is an undefeated daughter of Medaglia D'Oro, winning all four of her lifetime starts. Last time out, she won her stakes debut in the Wilshire Handicap at a mile on the Hollywood Park lawn. She was bet down from a 15-1 morning line down to 3-1 2nd choice. She stretches out another furlong and steps up in class, facing probably the top two older grass mares in the country. Will she be able to overcome such obstacles? Will Tuscan Evening continue her hot streak across town? Will Forever Together be able to reel her in? This Saturday, all these questions and more will be answered.
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