Drought Report 2/16 - San Vicente Stakes & Robert Lewis/El Camino Real recap

Some surprising results occurred this weekend, as the search for "The Drought Breaker" moved into full swing with two graded stakes and the first three-year old allowance on the main track this meet. In each of the three races, the heavy favorite went down to a feisty upstart. Steve Asmussen won one of them, but not the one most people expected. A new star may have emerged up north, and a Cal-bred hope emerged. A recap of these races plus a preview of the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes, that will be run on Sunday. First, let's recap the allowance race.

The first open allowance race for three year olds on the dirt at the Santa Anita meet ran on Friday. It was thought to be a match-up between the fast Baffert trainee Da Ruler and the swift Mandella filly Rumor. However, Rumor scratched out of the race when a filly-only version of this condition filled on Sunday. That plus another scratch left a compact field of 4 going 6 furlongs. Da Ruler was a heavy favorite, and pressed a hot pace set by the other two horses in the race. He took over at the top of the lane and looked strong. However, he was run down late by Bench Points (right) in a swift 1:08.22. This undefeated son of Benchmark ran his lifetime record to 4-for-4 by making his 2011 debut a winning one. He won both Cal-bred stakes at Del Mar, the I'm Smokin Stakes and the Graduation Stakes, last summer. This Tim Yakteen-trained gelding will have no problem as the distances increase, as his sire won going a 1m & 1/8, and his damsire Free House won the Santa Anita Derby, the Pacific Classic and the Santa Anita Handicap, the latter two at a 1m & 1/4. His likely next start is the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes March 12th, his first start at two turns.

Saturday brought two races that were thought to help crystallize the picture out here, yet caused more chaos instead. Here at Santa Anita, the Grade 2 Robert B Lewis Stakes going a mile and an eighth was thought to be nothing more than another notch in the belt for Tapizar, especially after Comma To The Top chose to run in the El Camino Real Derby instead (more on that in a minute). Unfortunately, things did not work out like that, as Tapizar was very rank in the early going, dragging jockey Garrett Gomez to the lead under swift fractions. He tugged and tugged so much that he had nothing left in the stretch, finishing a distant fifth out of seven runners. In a sustained stretch drive. Anthony's Cross (right) held off the multiple-graded stakes placed Riveting Reason for the win. This son of Indian Charlie avenged his loss to Tapizar in the Sham and won his first stake of his career in a slow (for this track) 1:48.63. His trainer Eoin Harty has not decided whether he will run in the Grade 2 San Felipe or wait until the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby for his next race, or maybe even ship out of town. This proved to be Tapizar's last race for a while, as he emerged from the race with a chip in his knee, and is sidelined indefinitely.

About an hour later and 400 miles up the 5 freeway, the Grade 3 El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields was run. The heavy favorite was Comma To The Top, who chose this slightly "easier" spot instead of the Lewis. Jakesam set the pace, with Comma drafting behind. Turning for home, Comma attempted to take command, but flattened out and drifted out in the stretch. The winner was Silver Medallion, who this blog had touted as a horse to watch last week. This son of Badge of Silver completed the mile and an eighth in 1:50.45, grinding out a win after having to check early and swing well wide into the stretch. The Steve Asmussen trainee could head to any one of four spots for his next race, including halfway around the world in Dubai for the UAE Derby. This blog is very high on him and hopes he ships stays local and runs in the Santa Anita Derby instead. Comma To The Top came out of the race well, but his performance may been a harbinger for his future performances at this and longer distances.

News and Notes

• The Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes will be run this Sunday going 7 furlongs. Entries will be taking tomorrow, but probable for the race, making their 2011 debuts, is G3 Hollywood Prevue winner (and this blog's choice to end the drought) Premier Pegasus (right) and G2 Best Pal Stakes runner-up Sway Away. Other notable probables for the race are sparkling debut winner The Factor and San Pedro Stakes winner Indian Winter.
• On Friday (2/11), the Asmussen trained Astrology continued working towards a start with a slow 4 furlong work in 51.20, the 38th best out of 42 works at Santa Anita.
• Jaycito worked towards a start in the San Felipe Stakes on 3/12 with a 7 furlong work in 1:25.40 on Tuesday (2/15).

A changing of the guard took place last weekend, with a stable losing a strong hope, yet finding another. Favorites went down, prices reigned, and new challengers abound. What will this week hold? Will someone shine in the San Vicente and factor into the breaking the drought? We shall see.

Hustlin' for that Cash...Call Futurity Winner

The road to the Kentucky Derby hits one of its early destinations, the Grade 1 $750,000 CashCall Futurity at Hollywood Park this Saturday. This Grade 1 race has been the stepping stone to such horses as Real Quiet, Point Given and last year's winner Lookin At Lucky. The $450,000 first place check all but guarantees a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate. The top two Southern California two year olds (Jaycito and Premier Pegasus) are skipping the race, so there is a chance for someone to take a big step forward toward the Derby dream. The locals must defend the turf from two east coast invaders. Let's get to the race.

The only Grade 1 winner in the field is #2 J P's Gusto. This winner of the G1 Del Mar Futurity comes out of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile where he was a well-beaten 6th. He finished a disappointing third in the Norfolk two races back, and appears to be beyond the scope of his abilities distance-wise. He loses his jockey to another horse in the race, and it looks like he will be nothing more than a pace factor.

The other two graded stakes winners are #7 Gourmet Dinner and #10 Comma to the Top. Each won a Grade 3 last time out, albeit on a surface different than today's race. Gourmet Dinner was a upset winner of the Delta Jackpot on dirt, while Comma To The Top was a gate-to-wire winner of the Generous. Comma has risen the class ladder all the way from the bottom (the maiden claiming ranks) to the top (Grade 1), with a 4 race win streak that includes a win over this track a part of the rise. Unfortunately, the ride ends here for him, as he will finally hit his class ceiling. As the favorite, he will take plenty of money, but with J P's Gusto and others harassing him on the lead, Comma looks very vulnerable. Gourmet Dinner had a quick blowout over the surface yesterday, and should be fine over the surface. Never finishing worst than second in his five lifetime races, he must use in the exotics. He will be coming from mid-pack under his regular jockey, who follows along from their home base of Calder (in Florida).

An interesting horse who will be a price is #8 Riveting Reason, after setting the pace (then backing up quickly) in the BC Juvenile, he came back to SoCal and broke his maiden. Before the Juvenile, he had finished third in the Norfolk and the Del Mar Futurity. He steps back up into stakes company, and should be sitting just behind the first flight of horses. He is a must use in the middle and lower rungs of the exotics. The only time he did not was the BC Juvenile. He gets the riding services of Alonzo Quinonez, who rides the other 2yo star of the barn, Premier Pegasus.

The main threat and the second choice on both the morning line and of this blog is #9 Industry Leader. This lightly raced son of Cherokee Run made his stakes debut in only his second start last time out, finishing second behind Premier Pegasus in the Hollywood Prevue. He has worked swiftly in the interim, and should have no problem with the distance. His trainer is very high on him, and he looks to set a good trip sitting in the second or third tier of runners.

The selection is #3 Rustler Hustler. This son of Ecton Park ships in from the east coast for his trainer Richard Dutrow. He has been working swiftly and steadily for his first start in 7 weeks. He won a race at this distance (but on the grass) last time out at Belmont. He manages to get top New York jockey Ramon Dominguez to take a break from his vacation to ride the horse. He should not have a problem with the synthetic, as he broke his maiden on the Tapeta at Presque Isle Downs. The only concern is that his trainer does not do will over the synthetic. (The maiden win was under a different trainer.) Rustler will be rolling from the back of the pack, and hopefully will show some 'hustle' and mow them all down.

Selections:
Rustler Hustler to win; Gourmet Dinner, Industry Leader & Riveting Reason underneath.

Will we see a horse give a breakout performance and thrust himself into the forefront of the Derby discussion? Will an east coast invader take the last grade 1 route race of the year? Can anyone stop Comma To the Top from making another 'possessive' statement of a victory? This field of two year olds have only upside to the them. But will that upside be enough? We will know by Saturday night. Good luck everybody!