Friday, November 1, 2013

2013 Breeders Cup Friday picks (Undercard Included) - Sparing Twitter Feeds

Let me be perfectly honest with you: This post only exists because I wish to state who I like for each race on the Breeders' Cup Friday card, but I don't want to flood anyone's Twitter feed with a whole bunch of tweets. So this is my kind of odd way of being nice while still getting my opinion out there.

On to the picks!!

Race 1
Another year, another "Best Bet" being on the undercard instead of in a Breeders' Cup race. This year it comes right off the bat with #12 Omega Star. Bred for turf, enough early speed to stay in contact with the leader through the first bend, much better sprinting than routing, a good outside post, and should be a VERY good price.

Confidence Rating: 9.3

Race 2
New year, same idea. Last year, I liked Basmati, but picked someone else on top because I didn't adjust to track quick enough. Not this year. I know there is other speed, but he's proven at this distance on this day. I would use EVERY speed horse if playing multi-horse exotics.
Confidence Rating: 5.6

Race 3 - Golden State Juvenile
California Chrome is either going to be on the lead or just barely off it. He should appreciate the extra distance. The favorite Tamarando is an ABSOLUTE play against based on how the track is playing.
Confidence Rating: 5.5

Race 4 - Golden State Juvenile Fillies
If the track were fair, I would take a shot with Whatsallthedrama, but it's not, so I'll take a swing for the fences with Swiss Lake Yodeler. She has speed from the outside draw and will have to gun hard. Considering her only win was at Fairplex, she will be a big price.
Confidence Rating: 4.7

Race 5 - Twilight Derby
Normally I love this race because it has a good mix of up and coming horses and play-against milers. This year though...THEY ALL LOOK LIKE MILERS! I know some of them won at today's distance, but I still have doubts on them. Kid Dreams is going to get overbet off his big number he earned last time (not sure HOW you come up with that number without any comparable races). I'm gonna stab with Outside Nashville. Hopefully with his post the jockey will elect to use more of his positional speed to stay closer to the pace and secure a good trip from his outside post.
Confidence Rating: 5

Race 6 - Breeders' Cup Marathon
Threw a dart, landed on Suns Out Guns Out. So I'll go with that.
Confidence Rating: 0.01

Race 7 - Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf
50% lifetime winning percentage for the writer's picks in this race. I never go with the "A" Euro (in this case Giovanni Boldini) in here because he always gets overbet. I going with Wilshire Boulevard instead. I like my juvenile Euros well-seasoned (7 starts) and a purely gut feeling has me thinking that he will appreciate two turns. If I had to pick a U.S. based horse, I'll swing for the fences and go with Bon Accord, mainly because I bet on him when he won the Calder Turf Dash at 46-1!
Confidence Rating: 6 (6.5 that one of the two will win)

Race 8 - Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile
Broadway Empire and Golden Ticket are the only two horses coming out of a nine furlong race. A nine furlong race has produced at least one of the top 3 finishers in each of the six runnings of this race. I expect that to continue today. (Click on the link to see my pre-bias thoughts on the races, via Thorofan,)
Confidence Rating: 6.5 one of the two wins, 9 at least one hits the board.

Race 9 - Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
A first time U.S. horse or Ready To Act win this race. Slight lean to Chriselliam, for "obvious" reasons. (In vague preference: Chriselliam - Al Thakhira - Ready To Act - Vorda). The post dooms My Conquestadory unless she is a bigger monster than she has already shown.
Confidence Rating: 4

Race 10 - Breeders' Cup Distaff
Until the track came up so speed-favoring on Thursday, #2 Authenticity was an absolutely standout to me. I can't see how Mike Smith on Royal Delta was going to let Beholder get in an easy lead, yet I have no doubt that Gary Stevens would engage in a protracted duel if Mikey decided to go for the lead hard. (See Tiz The Truth's race on Sunday at Santa Anita as an example of why I think that. I don't trust Close Hatches going nine furlongs against better horses than she has been facing lately. Princess of Sylmar screams "over the top" in her after this race was added on to her campaign at the last minute. Street Girl is probably not fast enough, but if it all goes to heck, she could pick up a major slice at a big price.
But now that the track seems to favoring speed, I wonder if either Beholder or Royal Delta will get tired enough, even after dueling, for Authenticity to catch them on this track. Authenticity is still the pick, but...
Confidence Rating: 6.5

As for that Arabian race the ends the card, for purely entertainment purposes only I like #7 Ayers A. But that is just purely for fun. Good luck today folks.

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