Saturday, November 6, 2010

Breeders' Cup Saturday

The day is here. Day 2 of the Breeders' Cup brings the big show to town, with Zenyatta attempting to end her career a perfect 20-for-20. Goldikova attempts to become the first horse ever to win the same race three times, attempting the three-peat in the Mile. With a flurry of competitive fields, this day will have plenty of chances for a great payoff. Let's dive right in with the first Breeders' Cup race, the Juvenile Turf.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf - Grade 2 - 1 Mile - (turf)
The first BC race of the day brings together a evenly match field of thirteen. This blog does not have a great feel for this race at all. The very lukewarm selection is #9 Soldat. Last time out, he finished second as the favorite in the Grade 3 Pilgrim Stakes over a yielding Belmont turf course. Two good works in the interim and the feeling that he will improve with the return to a complete two turns. Some large prices on the morning line that catch the eye are #11 Rough Sailing and #12 Humble and Hungry. Rough Sailing returns to the turf after a failed attempt routing on the Poly in the Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland. The cut-back and the return ti turf interests this blog, along with the two steady works. With a pedigree that is very strong for the grass, he may sneak into the exotics. Humble and Hungry is interesting because his pedigree says two turns are not a problem and the presence of jockey Olivier Peslier, the rider of Goldikova, is a bit of surprise, since H&H is making his first start against winners. The best of the Euros appears to be #5 Master of Hounds. He has experience around a turn, and should be fine at the distance.

Selections:
Soldat
Master of Hounds
Rough Sailing / Humble and Hungry (trifecta bombs)

Breeders' Cup Sprint - Grade 1 - 6 Furlongs
This field of 12 comes in without a clear favorite, as the early and dominant leader Majesticperfection was lost to injury in September. This group has a wide variety of running styles.for everyone to have their favorite style represented. The 3-1 morning line favorite is #2 Girolamo. This son of A.P. Indy, who won the Grade 1 Vosburgh last out, is trying to give his sire a win at the shortest dirt race (6 furlongs) after winning the longest race, the Marathon (1m & 3/4) yesterday. He comes in third off the layoff and has worked well in the interim, but he will bet tossed from the win spot because he violates the "Three Furlong Rule", a cardinal sin for this blog. The choice is #7 Kinsale King. This son of Yankee Victor runs on the dirt for the first time, but did have a workout over it at the BIG Fresno Fair a few weeks back. Earlier this year, he won the Palos Verdes Handicap at Santa Anita, which he parlayed into a win in the Group 1 Dubai Golden Shaheen. He went abroad to the UK for two prestigious grass races. Off since July, he comes in fresh and may float higher than his 8-1 morning line. #1 Big Drama is an ultra-game horse has not run since finishing second to a contender in the BC Dirt Mile Here Comes Ben. The cutback to 6 furlongs can only do good and the steady work pattern adds to the appeal. #5 Smiling Tiger has earned this blog's respect by being one of the few three year olds in the country to beat older, doing so twice in his last three starts. He also is making his first start on dirt, and popped a bullet work here last week. This blog is taking a stand against #3 Wise Dan, who seems to have picked up some "steam" this week, but is making only his 5th career start.

Selections:
Kinsale King
Big Drama
Smiling Tiger /Riley Tucker

Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint - Grade 2 - 5 furlongs - (turf)
This race was quite literally impossible to figure out for this blog. The horse who we had hoped to pin our hopes on, #1 Chamberlain Bridge, popped an abscess on his foot last week and missed his last work. That does not bode well for him in this race, and he no longer the pick. Instead of offering analysis, this blog will just point out a longshot in #13 Tropic Storm. The reason we point out this horse is that the cutback in distance and the abundance of speed in the field lead this blog to believe that if he can get over into a decent spot down the backstretch, he may be able to hang on for a share. The "if you put a gun to my head" selection is #9 Rose Catherine, because of her undefeated record at the distance.

Live Horses: (not enough conviction to make them selections)
Rose Catherine, Tropic Storm, Silver Timber, Unzip Me, Bridgetown

Breeders' Cup Juvenile - Grade 1 - 1m & 1/16th
This race has the two big names from the east coast who have gathered all the headlines, #2 Boys at Tosconova and #7 Uncle Mo. These two have both put in breathtaking efforts in the most recent starts and deserve to be the first two choices in the betting. Both stretch out to two turns for the first time today, but neither should have a problem with the distance. Uncle Mo is a pure speedball, and seeing how he reacts to pace pressure is the main question with him. 'Boys' must overcome a two month layoff, but has actually passed a horse, a rare thing in this field. These two will hopefully cause the price on #10 Jaycito to climb higher than the 8-1 morning line. This son of Victory Gallop has already won going two turns (in the Norfolk), but must overcome the 1 for 18 record on the board for horses coming out of the Norfolk running in the BC Juvenile when it is held at Churchill Downs. These three are the only ones this blog feels can win.

Selections:
Jaycito
Uncle Mo
Boys at Tosconova

Breeders' Cup Mile - Grade 1 - One Mile - (turf)
The first of the two horses attempting to win their third Breeders' Cup race is the deserving favorite and the wonderful mare #10 Goldikova. She comes in fine fashion, winning the Grade 1 Prix de la Foret against males at Longchamp. She is ultra game and there is no rela chink in her armor, Unless something unforeseen happens, she looks like a very strong candidate to make history. This blog;s crazy longshot is #8 Get Stormy. If for some reason the mare does not fire, Get Stormy looks to get a perfect trip behind speedball #9 Sidney's Candy. Whether he is good enough is completely other story, but at a healthy number, he is worth a shot.

Selections:
Goldikova
Paco Boy (who has been chasing Goldi all summer)
Get Stormy

Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile - Grade 1 - one mile
This race took a hit when probable post time favorite #8 Crown of Thorns went down with an injury on Friday. Favoritism will either fall to #5 Here Comes Ben or #6 Gayego. This blog is going to take a chance with the horse just to their outside, #7 Thiskyhasnolimit. "This" has been running effectively at two turns, but has always stuck this blog as a one-turn miler. The only other time h did this, he won the Grade 3 Iroquois on this very track. He has worked nicely in the interim and will probably go off at or near the 10-1 morning line. The morning line favorite #10 Morning Line is a horrible favorite, with only a single Grade 2 to his name. He appears to be a two-turn horse who cannot pass, and will be up against it.

Selections:
Thiskyhasnolimit
Gayego
Here Comes Ben

Breeders' Cup Turf - Grade 1 - 1m & 1/2 (turf)

The big question surround this relatively compact field of 8 is whether or not 2010 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe winner #6 Workforce will run or not. To this blog, it does not matter, as the selection either way is #7 Behkabad. He has run will over a surface with less give in it than hat the connections of Workforce are looking for and was well-bet in the Arc, losing by only 4 lengths with a spot of trouble. The #1 Champ Pegasus is interesting because he is the only on in the field who no one knows how truly good he is, since this is first trip outside of California. He should be on or near the lead, and this may give him a fighting chance with the lack of early speed signed on.

Selections:
Bekhabad
Workforce
Champ Pegasus

That leaves the Classic. But if you are a follower of this blog, you know exactly who is the selection, and who the one to fear is. (Hint, it's a she). But forhow I explain it, you will have to find out in my next post, which will be put up later this BC Saturday Morning. Good luck everybody!

Thursday, November 4, 2010

Breeders' Cup Friday Thoughts

Breeders’ Cup Friday is the first day of the World Championships. Today is mostly devoted for the ladies, with the five championship races for the females, but the Cup races will start off with the Marathon. There are other races on the undercard, but this blog will mention only the one precedent the Breeders’ Cup races, the Grade 3 Ack Ack Handicap, then delve into the BC races. This blog has done well on the undercard, and cannot resist pointing out a horse that could be a future star in the making. We shall start with that race.

(Don’t forget to enter the “Off The Board” contest run by this blog. So much fun for chucking a low-odds horse it shouldn’t be legal!)

Ack Ack Handicap – Grade 3 – 1m & 1/16th
This race has some upcoming three year-olds and a couple of wily veterans. The defending champion returns in this race in #4 Demarcation, although the distance was only a mile last year. He ran alright last time out, and picks up jockey Calvin Borel. He appears to have a tough task ahead of him versus three improving three-year olds. The morning line favorite, and the selection for this blog, is #1 Apart. This son of Flatter has been training in the morning with the best horse in the Al Stall Jr. barn, Blame, who is the 2nd choice in the Breeders’ Cup Classic tomorrow. He has been holding his own in the morning and is ready for his first race against older. #2 Colizeo won last out over #6 Jackson Bend, who was returning off the layoff. Colizeo likes this track, having won 2 of 3 races at Churchill Downs. He drew off to a nice win on that day, and should be on the lead. Jackson Bend should stalk him. Both have worked well in the interim. The other two in the field are the other two elder statesmen in the race, #2 Stream Cat and #3 Silver Edition. Stream Cat comes in off a year layoff and this has all the makings of a prep race for him. Silver Edition stretches out for the first time in a while, and looks to be overmatched.

Selections: Apart / Colizeo / Jackson Bend (maybe a straight trifecta to maximize value?)

Now we hit the Breeders’ Cup races. First up is the Marathon, going a mile and three-quarters on the main track.

Breeders’ Cup Marathon – Grade 3 – 1m & ¾
The morning line favorite is the Grade 1 winning #7 Awesome Gem. This gelded son of Awesome Again always comes with the same late kick no matter that distance, and should not be affected by the increase in distance. The one they will have to catch is #6 Gabriel’s Hill. He appears to be lone speed, and will take them as far as he can go. His pedigree states that he should be fine at the distance, and several close finishes at shorter distances. The buzz horse has been #2 Prince Will I Am, who is the co-2nd choice on the morning line at 4-1. He rallies from well back in the pack, and his pedigree just begs for as much distance as you can give it. The blog’s choice is a 15-1 longshot named #11 Precision Break. This son of Silver Deputy has been racing in Europe over the turf and synthetic in races no shorter than a mile and a half recently, and has plenty of stamina built in. He races on dirt for the first time on Friday, but has an American dirt pedigree on both sides. He may not have the class as some of the field, but he is worth a shot at 15-1.

Selections:
Precision Break (win/place bet)
Prince Will I Am
Gabriel’s Hill

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf – Grade 2 – 1m (turf)

This field of 14 is filled with all types of horses, and this group proved to be quite a handful to come up with a selection. I ended up on #13 Together. She is a European invader who last time out finished third in a field of 20, so the large field will not be a factor. That race was a straightaway race, and her previous races shows that she may prefer racing around a turn. While she goes two turns for the first time, she should not have a problem with the distance. The favorite is #7 Winter Memories. This daughter of international known turf sire El Prado won the Grade 3 Miss Grillo Stakes last out at Belmont in fine fashion, with a burst she blew by the field and caught the eye of this blogger. She figures to be a short price favorite to remain undefeated, and one has to worry whether she will get encounter traffic problems. #11 More Than Real comes in off a 2nd place finish in the Grade 3 Natalma at Woodbine, behind the #10 New Normal, but that race was around one turn. In her maiden win, More Than Real won a two-turn race at Saratoga rather nicely. She could spice up the exotics at 10-1. While I like Together, this race looks like a good spot to spread in the multi-race wagers if you think the favorites are vulnerable.

Selections:
Together
Winter Memories
More Than Real

Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint – Grade 1 – 7 furlongs
The first Grade 1 on the day is the Filly & Mare Sprint. This race has a full field of 14, and anyone of about 9 horses has a chance at winning this race. There are many speed types, a good amount of stalkers, and a few closers mixed in. The 7 furlongs distance is a specialist distance, and some may struggle to get that final furlong. The morning line favorite is #13 Rightly So, who hopes to continue her lifetime streak of never finishing off the board. She won the Grade 1 Ballerina last time out at Saratoga. She is a true speedball, and look to take the field wire to wire. However, her last win was over a track that was very speed-favoring, and will certainly find company on the front end. The defending champion is #4 Informed Decision. She won this race over a synthetic surface, in which is 10-12 lifetime. With the race on dirt, where she has run well, but not always her best, she looks to be vulnerable at short odds. The selection is #1 My Jen. This rapidly improving 3 year-old filly took the Grade 3 Gallant Bloom over #2 Sara Louise and #6 Moontune Missy. She relaxed a bit further off the pace than normal, and just got up. She should appreciate the extra 1/16th of a mile. At 15-1 morning line, I’m going to take chance at blowing up the toteboard. Sara Louise is another who I would use in the pick 3s & 4s, as that race was her first since November of 2009. #8 Switch and #9 Sweet August Moon ship in from Southern California, and look to maybe have a chance to add some value in the trifecta.

Selections:
My Jen (WP bet)
Sara Louise
Rightly So

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies – Grade 1 – 1m & 1/16th
Another tough race on this Friday card, as an evenly matched group of 12 is entered. #1 Indian Gracey has been scratched due to heat in her hoof. The favorite is #8 A Z Warrior. Daughter of freshman sire Bernardini won her first race on dirt in style when capturing the Grade 1 Frizette at Belmont. The extra 1/16th of a mile could prove to be her undoing, but she has at least shown the ability to rate. The selection is #9 Delightful Mary. This daughter of Limehouse, who has some of his greatest victories over this very Churchill Downs track, will be running on the dirt for the first time. Losing as the favorite last time out to a loose on the lead leader, she projects to be sitting about 4th or 5th going down the backstretch. Hopefully she will kick on in the stretch. Another trying dirt for the first time is #12 Tell a Kelly. This daughter of Tapit made her two-turn debut last out when finishing second to Rigoletta in the Oak Leaf. She went straight to Churchill after the race and has put together three steady drills over the surface. With Calvin Borel as her jockey, you cannot discount her at all. Also of interest is the foreign invader #2 Theyskens’ Theory, who is also sired by Bernardini, and has a classic American distance dirt pedigree. A definite spread race. Anyone with a strong opinion in here should be handsomely rewarded if correct.

Selections:
Delightful Mary
Tell a Kelly
Theyskens’ Theory

Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf – Grade 1 – 1m & 3/8 – (turf)
This field is filled with international flair, as 5 nations have a chance at claiming the title. The favorite and defending champion is #7 Midday. This daughter of Oasis Dream has won her last three races this year, and looks like a strong candidate to defend her crown. She has already won at a distance further than this, and may be the shortest favorite the entire weekend. #2 Red Desire ran an okay 3rd last out in the Grade 1 Flower Bowl last out, and looks to be the one with the best chance of upsetting the favorite. She has better acclimated to the states, and should not have a problem with the distance. The best local hope is either #2 Éclair De Lune (SoCal via Germany) or #6 Harmonious.

Selections:
Red Desire
Midday
Harmonious / Éclair De Lune (box the top 2 in an exacta. Play those over the other two in a trifecta)

Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic – Grade 1 – 1m & 1/8
For a more detail analysis, visit the Thorofan Handicapper’s Corner, where I handicapped this race. But any of you who read this blog know that I have said since April that #1 Life At Ten would win this race, and here win in the Beldame certified she will be tough to beat. I also think that all the travel Blind Luck this year catches up to her, and she finishes off the board.

Selections:
Life At Ten
Malibu Prayer/Unrivaled Belle/Acoma/Acting Happy (key Life at Ten on top; put these four underneath in the exacta and trifecta).

There is the rundown for Friday’s Breeders’ Cup races. Tomorrow brings thought on Saturday’s card. Until then, good capping and great betting!

Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Breeders' Cup Post Position & Morning Line Thoughts

This post will cover some of my thoughts about the post positions and morning line for the BC, plus a tentative schedule of my thoughts on the BC races. Let's talk about the latter first. Tentatively, this blog will share its thoughts on the first day of races on tomorrow, with thoughts on Saturday (except the Classic) on Thursday morning. On Thursday night (9 PM ET), this blog's thoughts on the Classic will be revealed.

Now onto thoughts on today's post position draws:


  • Lookin at Lucky still can't catch a break, as he ended up drawing the outside post in the Classic. He will break from the #12 hole, and will hopefully not get parked wide on both turns.
  • Others who shall be at low odds who drew poorly are Harve De Grace in the Ladies' Classic, Pluck in the Juvenile Turf, Tell A Kelly in the Juvenile Fillies and Together in the Juvenile Fillies Turf.
  • Some attractive prices on the morning line are Red Desire at 8-1 in the Filly & Mare Turf, Jaycito at 8-1 in the Juvenile and the entire field in the Filly and Mare Sprint except the favorites of Rightly So and Informed Decision.
  • Morning Line going in the Dirt Mile and not the Classic caught many off guard, but that was nowhere near the shock of when he was installed as the favorite in the race. The odds will prove to be dramatically different come post time for the race, with Crown of Thorns, Vineyard Haven and Here Comes Ben via for favoritism

This blog invites you to enter the "Off The Board" contest, where one can take a stand against low odds horses in a unique format that proves to be challenging yet fun. Don't think Lucky will hit the board? Put it on there!