Drought Report 2012 - Santa Anita Derby

The big one of the meet is finally upon the Great Race Place. The Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby is the local prep for the Kentucky Derby next month. Such past horses as Sunday Silence, Point Given, A.P. Indy and Affirmed have won this race on their way to later greatness. The last horse to win a Triple Crown race after running in the race is dual champion Lookin at Lucky, who finished 3rd in 2010, then went on the win the Preakness. The last horse to run in the Santa Anita Derby and win the Kentucky Derby was Giacomo in 2005, who was 4th in Arcadia before being first in Louisville. It has been 23 years since a horse has won the Santa Anita Derby and gone on to wear the roses, all the way back in 1989 when Sunday Silence pulled the double. That drought is the longest among ANY of the major preps, and the reason this blog calls the search for the Santa Anita Derby winner the "Drought Report". This year's group of ten runners stretch from a grade 1 winner to a horse with just one start.

The favorite is the multiple graded stakes winner Creative Cause. The winner of the last prep for today's race, the San Felipe, he has been on top of the local division for many months. He built off his 3rd in the San Vicente Stakes to win that race. His works since that race have shown plenty of life and that he has plenty of energy in the tank. His pedigree does not suggests that the nine furlongs of the race will be a problem at all. The only member of the field who is guaranteed a spot in the gate come the first Saturday of May due to his significant graded stakes earnings, so that must be taken into account on whether he will be ridden all out for the win. This idea is bolstered by the fact that his trainer Mike Harrington decided to take the blinkers off of him for the first time in his career. Better to experiment now rather than in the biggest race of the year. With the blinker removal, will Creative Cause be further back than normal off the pace.

I'll Have Another shocked the world when he rocked the field in a stylish win in the Robert B. Lewis at 43-1 two months ago. His connections decided that he needed rest to combat the big effort, pointing to this race since the win. He has several solid works, including a dazzling workout in between races on Santa Anita Handicap day. His trainer Doug O'Neill is high on his charge as O'Neill looks for his first win ever in the race. His pedigree suggests that the extra distance will not be a hint of a problem, as his family is filled with stamina-filled types. He needs a decent chunk of graded stakes earnings to earn a spot in the Kentucky Derby gate with only $151k in the kitty so far. A first or second would guarantee a trip, but a 3rd place finish ($90k) will lead to a few sleepless nights from worrying.

Bob Baffert fires three bullets in an attempt to add to his record 6 wins in this race with Liaison, Paynter and Blueskiesnrainbows. Liasion is the only one of the three to have any graded stakes earnings whatsoever, and he has enough to have already secured a spot in the gate next month. He has slowly been coming along this year,  rebounding from a poor effort (before he fell) in the Lewis with a decent 4th in San Felipe. He seems to have maybe not progressed from his stellar 2yo efforts, but he will get the chance to change that perception. Paynter has but one flashy start at five and half furlongs 7 weeks ago. He worked mostly across town (usually not a good sign) since the race. This feels like "too much, too soon" for a colt who looks like he has a bright future. The way he acted up while schooling this week leads one to believe he would appreciate the time to grow up mentally. Blueskiesnrainbows comes off a drubbing two months ago in an allowance race won by his stablemate Fed Biz. He appears to be in the race as a pace presence.

The others are Longview Drive ( 3rd in the Sham, lacks a real running style); Senor Rain (distance limitations, pace presence); Midnight Transfer (3rd in San Felipe, working well but has physical make-up of a sprinter/miler) and Brother Francis (Still a maiden, but has over $120k in graded earnings).

This blog thinks that Blueskiesnrainbows and Senor Rain duel on the front end, I'll Have Another earns another great trip and kicks clear turning for home. Creative Cause ends up second, with Liaison and Midnight Transfer fighting for third.







This figures to be a good race, and whomever ends up winning will carry the mantle of the "Drought Breaker" to Kentucky to end the near quarter-century drought. Good luck folks.

Drought Report 2012 - San Felipe Stakes

The San Felipe Stakes is the last local prep for the Santa Anita Derby. This race will most likely provide several runners for next month's race. This race has produced several Grade 1 winners in its past. It has been 11 years since it produced back-to-back Kentucky Derby winners in Point Given and Fusaichi Pegasus. This year's field is an even matched group of ten runners. To see full analysis of the race, go on over to the Thorofan's Handicapper's Corner, where I wrote about the race for them. Short version: Midnight Transfer earns the same trip I'll Have Another had in the Lewis, wins going away, with the Harrington-trained duo & Rousing Sermon collecting the minor awards.

In other news:

• Out of Bounds missed this race and is off the trail after suffering an injury in his last work before the race. He had successful surgery and will be back for a 2013 campaign.
• Fed Biz also missed this race because of a minor issue. He is already back on track galloping, and will be pointed to either the Santa Anita Derby.
• Delta Jackpot winner Sabercat will make his first start of the year in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park, where he could be joined by several others from out here, including at least one Baffert trainee (either Secret Circle or Castaway).
• Last year's San Felipe winner Premier Pegasus is still on the mend after a setback from his previous injury, We wish him a speedy recovery.

Good luck this weekend folks.

Big Cap Day

Santa Anita Handicap day has arrived with three grade 1 races in tow. They anchor the card as the last three races of the day, with the big one going off as the finale. Along with a food truck festival and other good things in the infield, it figures to be a good crowd on hand. Here are some brief thoughts on each stake:

Grade 1 Las Virgenes Stakes - One Mile - 3yo fillies

The first grade one on the card is for the fillies. This is the first grade one in the division this year and a prep for the Santa Anita Oaks next month. The wagering will be all over place with many options to place your wager. A 3yo race this time of year in SoCal without a Baffert trainee would be like a Los Angeles summer without sun (i.e. a shock). His charge is Eden's Moon. She won a maiden race by open lengths when stretched out to this distance last time out. She was forced to miss the Saint Ysabel S. due to minor illness, but she has worked swiftly since with several bullet workouts. But she will not get the lead. That will be Reneesgotzip. This daughter of City Zip has shown blazing speed each time out. She will be stretching out around two turns for the first time today. Made To Love Her finished behind Renee last time out in the Santa Ynez. She tries two turns on dirt for the first time today as well. Killer Graces is a grade 1 winner across town, but she seems to run better at Hollywood Park then on the dirt. This blog is going to pick Made To Love Her to take a stab at a price. In past years, this blog's pick has been finished second in this race more often than not, so maybe a backwheel exacta is in order?

Grade 1 Frank E. Kilroe Mile - One Mile (TURF) - 4yo & up 

Mr. Commons figures to be a heavy favorite against this field of eight. He has been well liked and well-championed by people as the "next big thing". He has strung together two straight wins at the meet, winning the Sir Beaufort (over Big 'Cap favorite Ultimate Eagle) and the Arcadia last time out, winning his first race against older. Jeranimo has beaten the favorite on this course at this trip just back in October. He has been working across town in steady fashion. He does need to come back off a subpar effort in the San Gabriel Handicap, though he was in an uncustomary spot (the lead) early on in the race. Mega Heat is 5-for-9 lifetime and improving each and every start after being dropped in for a tag back in August. Compari figures to be on the lead for today, and he has shown that he has no problem leading the field on a futile chase. The pick is Jeranimo, as he will be a better price and is probably as good an animal as the favorite. Mega Heat can offer value underneath.

Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap - One Mile & One-Quarter - 4yo & up

Setsuko. A horse whose name has been cursed, bellowed, and defamed over the last two years as his near misses in and exclusions from races have caused strife from others. This blog has witnessed this from afar as the horse, while talented and a real looker, never really interested as a betting concern. This blog has witnessed him school & race for three seasons now, but not until before his last race was their a change. Setsuko was gelded after his loss in the Pacific Classic. With that simple act, it seems that light has finally come on mentally for this horse. From the way he schools to the way he acts in the paddock, there is a subtle change for the better in his mannerisms. His "hanging" problem has seemingly been cut away with the ultimate equipment change. This blog witnessed  (and had video of before his camera was stolen) him bouncing back to the barn after his win last time out, acting like the race took nothing out of him. His energy levels caught the eye of everyone who saw him cross their path as they were heading out for the night. The distance is not a problem as well. All of that is why he is the "ALL IN" pick. Either this blog will go home happy or broke.

Good luck folks!